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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Je

SystemSystem Posts: 11,709
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership

1/8) Corbyn supporters don’t expect him to do as well as early Blair at a general election https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/Bi2tkRQd5z

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Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    titters....
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Corbyn is in a class of his own in Politics and Statistics. Epic fail.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    edited September 2016
    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    That level of delusion is quite staggering. We are going to need to invest a huge amount in mental health care to cope with them all.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @weejonnie

    FPT :

    I care not if the observers are left-wing, ring-wing or centre-forward observers. Credibility is the key.

    Throughout both 08 and 12 McCain and Romney advocates determined that they would pull in 10-20% of the black vote. It was 5%. Now despite all the reliable evidence to the contrary we even have some PBers who think black voters will rally to the Donald in greater numbers than in the past two elections.

    Trump will do very well to edge toward 3% of the AA vote. A higher level toward 5% would be a triumph for him over the plague, that would certainty merit applause even as he loses the election.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    007th?
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    I have been getting calls all day from a Jim, as in J...I...M. Apparently he wants to sell me a washing machine.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    AlastairMeeks said:

    007th?

    I've always wanted to do a James Bond themed thread.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As if MI5 would be needed to discredit Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.
    Do we really think they'll want a GOP President, with a likely GOP majority in both the House and Senate, and with one maybe as many as four Supreme Court nominees up for grabs?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.

    Trump is the GOP candidate and outsider and is doing substantially worse with black and latino voters than McCain or Romney.

    97% of black voters have an unfavourable view of Trump and the recent Latino Decisions poll, sample 3700, had him on 19% of latino votes, down 10 points from Romney
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Some Leave voters still think Trump = Leave.
    Doesn't matter one poll found 0% favourable rating for him with AA voters, I just hope they don't bet in this basis.

    We need a thread from someone actually based there.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.

    Trump is the GOP candidate and outsider and is doing substantially worse with black and latino voters than McCain or Romney.

    97% of black voters have an unfavourable view of Trump and the recent Latino Decisions poll, sample 3700, had him on 19% of latino votes, down 10 points from Romney
    That 97% is akin to the 97% of scientists back global warming - sensationalist and well out of date.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    Since I am a Corbyn supporter let me answer the yougov questions:

    Q1.
    With Corbyn 31%
    With Smith lower than 31%.

    Q2
    Don't Know.

    Q3
    Yes the mainstream media are biased.
    No to all the others.

    Q4
    Yes the media and the rebels are to blame.

    Q5
    Only 1 of my friends would vote Labour, but not many Conservative either.

    Q6
    Agnostic, but don't like the SNP.

    Q7
    A mixture of allowing the rebels to remain backbenchers and deselect the ex-shadow cabinet ministers.

    Q8
    I'm no Smith supporter, so who cares.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    AlastairMeeks said:

    As if MI5 would be needed to discredit Jeremy Corbyn.

    If anything, they'd probably prop him up. Nothing to remind the government of that domestic terrorism could come again than an alleged IRA sympathiser as LOTO.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always wanted to do a James Bond themed thread.

    As you penned this 007 thread were you sitting down in a beige suit stroking your pussy ?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Nefarious was coined to describe actions like that.

    The curtailing of early voting access across republican controlled states that just happens to coincide with the ways that blacks most often use is a disgrace
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    AlastairMeeks said:

    As if MI5 would be needed to discredit Jeremy Corbyn.

    Bond was MI6, not MI5. But these poll numbers are truly terrifying. Around a third of all Labour members want to be led by a 71-year-old who has just lost a general election, almost certainly very badly when a sane candidate could have won?

    And what's worse, the 71-year-old in question is an arrogant, dogmatic and rather stupid failure who has never done anything worthwhile, helpful or significant in his life. I mean, Benn at least had been a minister and brought about major, overdue constitutional changes. What's Corbyn ever done?

    Is it possible for an entire political movement to be either doing drugs or have a death wish? Because that's what I'm seeing here.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.

    Trump is the GOP candidate and outsider and is doing substantially worse with black and latino voters than McCain or Romney.

    97% of black voters have an unfavourable view of Trump and the recent Latino Decisions poll, sample 3700, had him on 19% of latino votes, down 10 points from Romney
    That 97% is akin to the 97% of scientists back global warming - sensationalist and well out of date.
    In what sense is a poll published this week out of date or not sensational in showing Trump less fancied than the plague?

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    Just watching Guy Martin on CH4....how did they not hire him for Top Gear?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    There is a reason that Trump is beloved of white supremacists and is recruiting the far right onto his team. He's different from the GOP in that they do appear to know the dividing line between extremist and hardline politics. He doesn't.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Nefarious was coined to describe actions like that.

    The curtailing of early voting access across republican controlled states that just happens to coincide with the ways that blacks most often use is a disgrace
    Welcome back Jim Crow.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Depressing
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Is that a link to a poll, or an electoral college projection?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Freggles said:

    Depressing

    But they scored in injury time .... :smile:
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.

    Trump is the GOP candidate and outsider and is doing substantially worse with black and latino voters than McCain or Romney.

    97% of black voters have an unfavourable view of Trump and the recent Latino Decisions poll, sample 3700, had him on 19% of latino votes, down 10 points from Romney
    Jack I'm sure you thought the same about minorities voting to leave the EU, it explains the discrepancy between your forecast and the result, plus a few other voters you don't seem to have paid attention to.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always wanted to do a James Bond themed thread.

    As you penned this 007 thread were you sitting down in a beige suit stroking your pussy ?
    No. I did rewatch SPECTRE last night though, the greatest Bond film of all time.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    Although I'm not a Trump ramper since I give him only a 10% chance since the conventions, I think he will get 1% in DC.
    Basically everyone who lives there (civil servants, lobbyists, journalists, african-americans) hate him.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Is that a link to a poll, or an electoral college projection?
    Both - there is a 'show table' option on the left hand side which shows the data they are using to produce the projection.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always wanted to do a James Bond themed thread.

    As you penned this 007 thread were you sitting down in a beige suit stroking your pussy ?
    No. I did rewatch SPECTRE last night though, the greatest Bond film of all time.
    I think you missed the line ...excepting all preceding Bond films....

    :)
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
    Now that's a delusion.

    The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    nunu said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Some Leave voters still think Trump = Leave.
    Doesn't matter one poll found 0% favourable rating for him with AA voters, I just hope they don't bet in this basis.

    We need a thread from someone actually based there.
    Not the same because Leave won 35-40% of minority voters in the UK. Trump is obviously not going to do that well, but he doesn't need to, he only needs to convert a few voters. Again, no one is saying he will get a majority of minorities, clearly that won't happen, but he doesn't need a majority to take the White House.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Very depressing. The purists [ I was going to use another word ] have taken over the party. Whatever the results, it will be a victory !

    If only 28% votes Labour, it will be "28% has seen the light". Revolution is round the corner.

    Who are to blame ? The idiots who lent Corbyn the votes to get upto 35 nominations last year. They so much misread the anger in the party on abstaining on welfare cuts ! Also meekly accepting that it was "Labour's fault" for the 2008-2012 recession.

    22 out of 24 OECD countries went through a recession. Oh, yes, Labour was at fault for every one of those.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    Although I'm not a Trump ramper since I give him only a 10% chance since the conventions, I think he will get 1% in DC.
    Basically everyone who lives there (civil servants, lobbyists, journalists, african-americans) hate him.
    Not surprisingly since many of them will wave goodbye to large pay-checks if he gets in.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    15%. I am not a Trump ramper.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    surbiton said:

    Very depressing. The purists [ I was going to use another word ] have taken over the party. Whatever the results, it will be a victory !

    If only 28% votes Labour, it will be "28% has seen the light". Revolution is round the corner.

    Who are to blame ? The idiots who lent Corbyn the votes to get upto 35 nominations last year. They so much misread the anger in the party on abstaining on welfare cuts ! Also meekly accepting that it was "Labour's fault" for the 2008-2012 recession.

    22 out of 24 OECD countries went through a recession. Oh, yes, Labour was at fault for every one of those.

    Quite right. They should have voted for the welfare cuts.

    And not nominated someone as hopeless as Corbo.

    Would probably be tied in the polls right now...
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Is that a link to a poll, or an electoral college projection?
    The most important thing about that model is that it shows even if poor white men turned out in record numbers Trump would still likely lose.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Fantastic polling.

    For the Conservatives in government.

    Wasn't David Shayler MI5?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Some Leave voters still think Trump = Leave.
    Doesn't matter one poll found 0% favourable rating for him with AA voters, I just hope they don't bet in this basis.

    We need a thread from someone actually based there.
    Not the same because Leave won 35-40% of minority voters in the UK. Trump is obviously not going to do that well, but he doesn't need to, he only needs to convert a few voters. Again, no one is saying he will get a majority of minorities, clearly that won't happen, but he doesn't need a majority to take the White House.
    he needs more than romney got. as a massivly public bigot, he wont get that.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.

    Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Hawaii should go Clinton. Alaska possibly Trump. I am surprised about Ohio. I suppose the WWC are playing a part here. But Florida seems stronger for the Dems than 12/16 years ago.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
    Now that's a delusion.

    The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
    Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    The point is that Trump isn't the GOP. He is an outsider.

    Trump is the GOP candidate and outsider and is doing substantially worse with black and latino voters than McCain or Romney.

    97% of black voters have an unfavourable view of Trump and the recent Latino Decisions poll, sample 3700, had him on 19% of latino votes, down 10 points from Romney
    Jack I'm sure you thought the same about minorities voting to leave the EU, it explains the discrepancy between your forecast and the result, plus a few other voters you don't seem to have paid attention to.
    The EU referendum has absolutely no bearing on POTUS.

    Whereas we had mixed messages pre BREXIT we have a mass of verified data from 08/12 and in this cycle to be assured that black voters and latinos are turning away from the GOP generally and Trump in particular in even larger numbers than previously.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    weejonnie said:

    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Is that a link to a poll, or an electoral college projection?
    Both - there is a 'show table' option on the left hand side which shows the data they are using to produce the projection.
    OK, but it doesn't show a national share of the vote, which is what the Reuters poll was about.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    edited September 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
    Now that's a delusion.

    The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
    Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
    Beat me too it....
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
    Now that's a delusion.

    The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
    Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
    Why Bootle, anyway? It isn't quite the safest seat is it?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Some Leave voters still think Trump = Leave.
    Doesn't matter one poll found 0% favourable rating for him with AA voters, I just hope they don't bet in this basis.

    We need a thread from someone actually based there.
    Not the same because Leave won 35-40% of minority voters in the UK. Trump is obviously not going to do that well, but he doesn't need to, he only needs to convert a few voters. Again, no one is saying he will get a majority of minorities, clearly that won't happen, but he doesn't need a majority to take the White House.
    He will need about 70% of the White Male voters. Unlikely.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    surbiton said:

    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Hawaii should go Clinton. Alaska possibly Trump. I am surprised about Ohio. I suppose the WWC are playing a part here. But Florida seems stronger for the Dems than 12/16 years ago.
    Hawaii should be a slam dunk for Clinton. I guess there have just been so few polls they aren't forecasting it.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole on the mind)
    In my mind I'm going to Carolina.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - Can those thinking African Americans will flock to Trump when the GOP are doing stuff like this explain their workings?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-north-carolina-voter-id-law-20160902-story.html

    Nefarious was coined to describe actions like that.

    The curtailing of early voting access across republican controlled states that just happens to coincide with the ways that blacks most often use is a disgrace
    Welcome back Jim Crow.
    What's worse is that if Scalia hadn't pegged it the Supreme Court would have waved it through. Because they believe institutional racism doesn't happen anymore.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited September 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    EDIT: Must have been longer than a week, now I think about it. More PP markets up
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
    Now that's a delusion.

    The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
    Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
    Why Bootle, anyway? It isn't quite the safest seat is it?
    It is somewhere you cannot imagine being anything but Labour.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.

    Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.

    As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
    And so the delusion continues.

    Con gain Bootle?
    Now that's a delusion.

    The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
    Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
    Why Bootle, anyway? It isn't quite the safest seat is it?
    In 2008, Ave It, after correctly predicting Boris would win London, called Bootle for the Tories after a politicshome marginals poll showed the Tories on course for a majority of 150 odd
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.

    Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
    That's in line where I am as someone who leans Tory. This is one time I think PR would be a really good idea. He has a chance but I think we are underestimating the history of the GOP and minorities that's why it would be good to get someone who understands American politics and culture to write a thread on the likelihood of Trump gaining enough minority support.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    edited September 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing her with a 1% lead.
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    The biggest difference is that Brexit was able to form a coalition of disparate voters by being, in itself, a loose coalition. Remain found itself unable to get enough decent hits on such a nebulous target. With Trump, however, it's all about him. If the USA votes for him, it will be admitting that they are him, a far right, bigoted demagogue. Brexit voters could say they were one of many different things, depending on their own conscience.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing with a 1% lead.
    1.05 for HRC to win Calif. is simply licence to print money.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.

    Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
    That's in line where I am as someone who leans Tory. This is one time I think PR would be a really good idea. He has a chance but I think we are underestimating the history of the GOP and minorities that's why it would be good to get someone who understands American politics and culture to write a thread on the likelihood of Trump gaining enough minority support.
    Is there any indication a) he wants minorities vote and b) he is trying to get them? its pretty obvious he is just trying to pivot so the non-racist republicans vote for him
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    OK, but it doesn't show a national share of the vote, which is what the Reuters poll was about.

    The IPSOS/Reuters state polls I linked to this morning should be treated with some caution as the sample sizes in some states are very small - only 131 in New Hampshire.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    surbiton said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing with a 1% lead.
    1.05 for HRC to win Calif. is simply licence to print money.
    i thought trump said he would flip new york and california?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    surbiton said:

    Very depressing. The purists [ I was going to use another word ] have taken over the party. Whatever the results, it will be a victory !

    If only 28% votes Labour, it will be "28% has seen the light". Revolution is round the corner.

    Who are to blame ? The idiots who lent Corbyn the votes to get upto 35 nominations last year. They so much misread the anger in the party on abstaining on welfare cuts ! Also meekly accepting that it was "Labour's fault" for the 2008-2012 recession.

    22 out of 24 OECD countries went through a recession. Oh, yes, Labour was at fault for every one of those.

    They can't carry the core vote with them on their quest to capture others.

    The core Labour vote is economically and socially left, ex-Labour voters are a mixture of everything.

    From social conservatives who went to UKIP , to economic conservatives who went Tory, and those in scotland who went to the SNP were the core vote.

    Ideally Labour would have a strong leader who is economically left and socially conservative, but that ideal leader is certainly not any of the present Labour MPs.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Guy Burgess was MI6 as well.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    OK, but it doesn't show a national share of the vote, which is what the Reuters poll was about.

    The IPSOS/Reuters state polls I linked to this morning should be treated with some caution as the sample sizes in some states are very small - only 131 in New Hampshire.
    Now you are treating Reuters with caution ?
    I have been saying that for months.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    Very depressing. The purists [ I was going to use another word ] have taken over the party. Whatever the results, it will be a victory !

    If only 28% votes Labour, it will be "28% has seen the light". Revolution is round the corner.

    Who are to blame ? The idiots who lent Corbyn the votes to get upto 35 nominations last year. They so much misread the anger in the party on abstaining on welfare cuts ! Also meekly accepting that it was "Labour's fault" for the 2008-2012 recession.

    22 out of 24 OECD countries went through a recession. Oh, yes, Labour was at fault for every one of those.

    They can't carry the core vote with them on their quest to capture others.

    The core Labour vote is economically and socially left, ex-Labour voters are a mixture of everything.

    From social conservatives who went to UKIP , to economic conservatives who went Tory, and those in scotland who went to the SNP were the core vote.

    Ideally Labour would have a strong leader who is economically left and socially conservative, but that ideal leader is certainly not any of the present Labour MPs.
    Ed Balls who is a not an MP and who received just 15% of the votes.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    OK, but it doesn't show a national share of the vote, which is what the Reuters poll was about.

    The IPSOS/Reuters state polls I linked to this morning should be treated with some caution as the sample sizes in some states are very small - only 131 in New Hampshire.
    Now you are treating Reuters with caution ?
    I have been saying that for months.
    Why does it matter if the sub samples in some states are small, isn't that like looking at Scottish sub samples ? As long as the key demographics are in line it should be fine?
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    OT but may be of interest:

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/jean-marie-guehenno-on-european-defense-after-brexit-a-1110352.html
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited September 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing her with a 1% lead.
    You are a laugh sometimes TSE

    Incidentally there may be a smidge of value in Democrat GAIN North Carolina @ 1.61

    In a month I will be in the US, but I won't be able to access online bookies right?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?

    Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.

    Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
    It is possible that Trump could pull off a shock win but remember that it is really a series of state elections, so to reach the White House, he will need to string together a number of upsets, so at the moment I'd be looking for a bigger price.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing her with a 1% lead.
    You are a laugh sometimes TSE
    It was so I could headline the piece

    'Donald Trump, Utah Sinner, or Utah Saint? Clinton into Something Good if she wins Utah'
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    619 said:

    surbiton said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing with a 1% lead.
    1.05 for HRC to win Calif. is simply licence to print money.
    i thought trump said he would flip new york and california?
    and then Gain Bootle?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited September 2016
    Keith Vaz to be probed over 'charity payments' to prostitutes allegations

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/keith-vaz-to-be-probed-over-charity-payments-to-prostitutes-alle/

    Could he one up Jacqui Smith...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    Very depressing. The purists [ I was going to use another word ] have taken over the party. Whatever the results, it will be a victory !

    If only 28% votes Labour, it will be "28% has seen the light". Revolution is round the corner.

    Who are to blame ? The idiots who lent Corbyn the votes to get upto 35 nominations last year. They so much misread the anger in the party on abstaining on welfare cuts ! Also meekly accepting that it was "Labour's fault" for the 2008-2012 recession.

    22 out of 24 OECD countries went through a recession. Oh, yes, Labour was at fault for every one of those.

    They can't carry the core vote with them on their quest to capture others.

    The core Labour vote is economically and socially left, ex-Labour voters are a mixture of everything.

    From social conservatives who went to UKIP , to economic conservatives who went Tory, and those in scotland who went to the SNP were the core vote.

    Ideally Labour would have a strong leader who is economically left and socially conservative, but that ideal leader is certainly not any of the present Labour MPs.
    The core Labour vote is economically left but socially conservative.


    The Labour membership are metropolitan.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    surbiton said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing with a 1% lead.
    1.05 for HRC to win Calif. is simply licence to print money.
    Unfortunately PP has obliterated that now. I must admit I do not go in for 1.05 with months out.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing her with a 1% lead.
    You are a laugh sometimes TSE

    Incidentally there may be a smidge of value in Democrat GAIN North Carolina @ 1.61

    In a month I will be in the US, but I won't be able to access online bookies right?
    Yup, you will be able to access the online bookies, but you'll be committing a crime if you place the bet, even over the phone.

    Think of your career.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    OK, but it doesn't show a national share of the vote, which is what the Reuters poll was about.

    The IPSOS/Reuters state polls I linked to this morning should be treated with some caution as the sample sizes in some states are very small - only 131 in New Hampshire.
    Now you are treating Reuters with caution ?
    I have been saying that for months.
    I'm saying that the IPSOS state polling with small samples should be treated with caution as is the case with any pollster.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    I need a favour.

    When SPIN open their Electoral college vote spreads, can you all remind me not to go balls deep on that market. I reckon I'll let my detestation of Trump colour my betting.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing her with a 1% lead.
    You are a laugh sometimes TSE

    Incidentally there may be a smidge of value in Democrat GAIN North Carolina @ 1.61

    In a month I will be in the US, but I won't be able to access online bookies right?
    Yup, you will be able to access the online bookies, but you'll be committing a crime if you place the bet, even over the phone.

    Think of your career.
    I may need to set one of those IP filters so that the DNS for Betfair doesn't resolve...
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    As if MI5 would be needed to discredit Jeremy Corbyn.

    Good job for the intern though
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need a favour.

    When SPIN open their Electoral college vote spreads, can you all remind me not to go balls deep on that market. I reckon I'll let my detestation of Trump colour my betting.

    If only Keith, I mean Jim, hadn't gone balls deep...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Keith Vaz to be probed over 'charity payments' to prostitutes allegations

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/keith-vaz-to-be-probed-over-charity-payments-to-prostitutes-alle/

    Could he one up Jacqui Smith...

    The Silver Star charity office is located directly opposite Vaz's constituency office on Humberstone rd Leicester.

    Diabetes is a particularly common condition in British Asian's, all part of how Mr Vaz keeps his profile up.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TSE - did you get out of your Trump laying for the nomination respectably in the end?

    I did. Thank god for Marco Rubio and the massive Betfair overreaction to the New Hampshire result
    Hurrah!
    I don't recall a New Hampshire over-reaction. I remember an Iowa one (a huge bounce for third place Rubio)
    Yeah, I meant Iowa, I'm writing a thread on the State betting markets, and have New Hampshire (and New England as a whole) on the mind.
    I had a look a week ago and found no bets resembling value! (Except Democrats to win California at 1.05... not for the faint hearted)

    I was going to tip Hillary to win Utah based on that one poll in May showing her with a 1% lead.
    You are a laugh sometimes TSE
    It was so I could headline the piece

    'Donald Trump, Utah Sinner, or Utah Saint? Clinton into Something Good if she wins Utah'
    Your famous '80s music references are now becoming '90s music references! There's No Limit to your talents.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    Nick Clegg has revealed how his relationship with Michael Gove deteriorated so much while in government that he told No 10 he was no longer prepared to talk to him.

    In an extract from his memoirs – Politics: Between the Extremes, which is serialised in the Guardian – the former deputy prime minister says he told David Cameron he would end all personal dealings with Gove, and that the news “didn’t seem to come as much of a surprise” because the then prime minister also had difficulties with the Gove team.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/04/nick-cleggs-relationship-with-michael
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    weejonnie said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump ahead by 1% among likely voters, in latest Reuters national poll.

    Not according to http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
    Hawaii should go Clinton. Alaska possibly Trump. I am surprised about Ohio. I suppose the WWC are playing a part here. But Florida seems stronger for the Dems than 12/16 years ago.
    Hawaii should be a slam dunk for Clinton. I guess there have just been so few polls they aren't forecasting it.
    If we want a list of states, here you go:

    Safe Hillary. (100%)

    Vermont
    Massachusetts
    New York
    California
    Hawaii
    Washington
    Maryland
    New Jersey

    Likely Hillary (80-99%)

    Illinois
    Minnesota
    Rhode Island
    Delaware
    New Mexico

    Lean Hillary(60-80%)

    Colorado
    Virginia
    Pennsylvania
    New Hampshire
    North Carolina
    Wisconsin
    Connecticut
    Maine
    Florida
    Michigan
    Oregon

    Toss ups (40-60% for either)

    Iowa
    Ohio
    Nevada

    Lean Trump (60-80%)

    Utah
    Arizona
    Georgia
    Missouri
    S.Carolina

    Likely Trump (80-99%)

    Montana
    Kansas
    Kentucky
    Nebraska
    Texas
    Arkansas
    N.Dakota
    S.Dakota

    Safe Trump (100%)

    Wyoming
    Indiana
    Louisiana
    Mississippi
    Alabama
    Tennessee
    Idaho
    West Virginia
    Oklahoma
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited September 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Keith Vaz to be probed over 'charity payments' to prostitutes allegations

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/keith-vaz-to-be-probed-over-charity-payments-to-prostitutes-alle/

    Could he one up Jacqui Smith...

    The Silver Star charity office is located directly opposite Vaz's constituency office on Humberstone rd Leicester.

    Diabetes is a particularly common condition in British Asian's, all part of how Mr Vaz keeps his profile up.
    I remember all that nonsense about him objecting to the Christmas Coke truck (but he had fewer problems about opening the sweetie store). Insert your own joke...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    Why does it matter if the sub samples in some states are small, isn't that like looking at Scottish sub samples ? As long as the key demographics are in line it should be fine?

    Simply that the MoE will be much greater. A Florida poll of 500 might get the demographics correct with 75 black voters but find 15 Trump voters or 20% voting for him. Not credible but it would skew the overall result several points in Trump favour. The same is true of latino voters.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    How is it possible to discredit this guy?

    https://twitter.com/martha_gill/status/772115686722269184
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    Scott_P said:

    How is it possible to discredit this guy?

    https://twitter.com/martha_gill/status/772115686722269184

    And yet his opponent manages to make himself look more ridiculous...
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