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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Jeremy Hunt be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2017?
William Hill have brought back their market on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2017 in light of the announcement this week of further strike action by junior doctors. Normally I’m loathe to back 1/6 bets, however I’m prepared to make an exception to get a 16% return in a little under 4 months for the following reasons.
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What's up, Doc?
Against is that we may not see a reshuffle soon enough.
For:
1) Senior doctors are far from unified in opposing this strike. The College of GPs and Psychiatrists have supported the juniors
2) Changing the Health Sec is one way to resolve the deadlock.
3) Contract imposition is being bodged by incompetent HR teams, with less than a month to go, fewer than 20% are able to go ahead.
4) the NHS deficit is spiraling out of control independent of the strike, and urgent targets are being missed. These both will get worse this autumn.
5) the hospitals closure plan that was leaked will add to the pressure.
6) Hunt was prominent for Remain and strongly associated with the Cameron regime. His days are numbered. Indeed keeping him at Health may be part of killing off the old guard.
Edit - actually, I really do expect him to resign once the contracts are in place so someone else can soothe things over. So it's a question of when that will happen, which is what I'm not sure of.
Those extra £billions for the NHS cannot come soon enough. Who will be the lucky health secretary in post when the lorries with all the extra cash pull in through the gate?
I never understand how consultants employed full time by NHS can spend so much time stuffing ever greater wads of cash into back pockets from the private sector. Or how so many of them have the lack of morality or commitment and care for out society that they channel money through companies to evade contributing to society by reducing taxation.
The NHS is plagued by so many classes of prima donnas that improvement of the service is almost impossible. Administrators and medical staff alike.
Nate actually under-estimates the shift to Trump, as is his tendency. Some polls (and not just the LA Times) have the candidates tied.
I continue to think Trump will win.
Over 20% of Hospital physicians think these rota gaps are a threat to patient safety, and 40% of Consultant jobs could not be fulled in this recent College of Physicians survey:
https://www.rcplondon.ac.uk/news/one-fifth-consultants-state-rota-gaps-are-causing-significant-problems-patient-safety
To my mind the biggest problem of the contract is that it does not mention training, in what are essentially apprentice like training posts. There is no plan for how to equip the juniors with the skills to become autonomous practitioners. I would not want a junior to be doing my emergency laparotomy if they had not done many elective operations under close supervision first. That is how it will be though under Hunts plans. Not the way to get good outcomes.
The death of a relative of mine earlier in the year was in part because of poor continuity of care, due to the hospital concerned being unable to staff the rota, so needing to rely on locums and underexperienced cross cover.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3771685/EXPOSED-hard-Left-doctors-care-bashing-Tories-health.html
If there's any truth to this, it will make May and Hunt more determined not to back down, strengthening @TSE's bet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/inside-the-republican-creation-of-the-north-carolina-voting-bill-dubbed-the-monster-law/2016/09/01/79162398-6adf-11e6-8225-fbb8a6fc65bc_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop_b
I think he'll survive, but 1/6 bets are not my cup of tea.
SNP Voters - diff vs Con voters:
Which one or two of the following do you think should be the main priorities for the Scottish Government at this time? Please tick up to two.
Healthcare: -15
Economic Development: -24
Relationship with EU: +29
Education: -20
Independence: +19
'Education' ranks fifth among SNP voters, after 'Independence'......
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eva2tvwhn2/TimesScotland_160831_Results_website.pdf
The talk of the JDC leaders of trying to topple the government, will only make that government more determined to see them off. As one commentator said on the first day of the strikes, they might have more public support if they didn't sound like Arthur Scargill with a stethoscope.
Many juniors see the shift patterns of the new contract impossible to sustain, and covering rota gaps too. It is very difficult to come to the end of a working day (or night) and for no-one to appear for handover. In practice these staff are usually forced to carry on, which is not sustainable forever.
If I were 25 years younger as a Doctor, I would emigrate. There is no future for British medicine.
All very pertinent to several discussions we've had on here. Co authored by the excellent Jonathan Haidt.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356/
All very pertinent to several discussions we've had on here. Co authored by the excellent Jonathan Haidt. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356/
"...Political scientists call this process “affective partisan polarization,” and it is a very serious problem for any democracy. As each side increasingly demonizes the other, compromise becomes more difficult. A recent study shows that implicit or unconscious biases are now at least as strong across political parties as they are across races.
So it’s not hard to imagine why students arriving on campus today might be more desirous of protection and more hostile toward ideological opponents than in generations past. This hostility, and the self-righteousness fueled by strong partisan emotions, can be expected to add force to any moral crusade. A principle of moral psychology is that “morality binds and blinds.” Part of what we do when we make moral judgments is express allegiance to a team. But that can interfere with our ability to think critically. Acknowledging that the other side’s viewpoint has any merit is risky—your teammates may see you as a traitor.
Social media makes it extraordinarily easy to join crusades, express solidarity and outrage, and shun traitors. Facebook was founded in 2004, and since 2006 it has allowed children as young as 13 to join. This means that the first wave of students who spent all their teen years using Facebook reached college in 2011, and graduated from college only this year... "
If she does remove him now she'll be showing weakness at this early juncture which will encourage everyone else to push her about.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/olympics-alleged-chemical-terror-plotters-charged-in-brazil/article/2600944?custom_click=rss
Brazilian officials announced Friday the indictment of 12 men who allegedly planned a biochemical terrorist attack at the Rio de Janeiro Olympics last month, in a NBC report published late Friday.
Authorities said the dozen Brazilian men were taken in to custody between June and August, some just weeks before the games kicked off. The men have been accused of "realizing preparations for terrorist acts with the purpose of realizing the offense" and other offenses.
And you *still* have a record deficit?
Why is that Hunt's fault?
From my side (the commercial end of healthcare) we are seeing a continual and increasingly aggressive squeeze on pricing and availability of innovative medicine (I don't have a problem with the former; on the latter NICE is a great idea if frustrating at times, but I do worry when PCTs decide not to implement NICE recommendations)
Makes you wonder where all the money is going sometimes
Clinton 45 .. Trump 36
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-clinton-holds-11-percentage-point-lead-over-trump-in-battleground-nh/41490996
3 September 1752. This day never happened because Britain introduced the Gregorian calendar and it became 14 September.
Mrs JackW is fingering my lolly ...
There is more to the NHS than just A&E.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/new-leaders-present-gibberish-party-6fnjlzqln
"...the subtitler had Ms Lucas saying “no nuclear, no mice”, which created an image of a line of redundant rodents being told they were no longer needed on the wheel. I think she really said “no compromise”.
The GP's practises should be open at weekends, ALL of them with at least one GP on duty
Only by sitting on the floor outside the hospital can patient care be guaranteed!
Government plans to have doctors in the wards on weekends can only end in disaster [unless they pay more, which will ensure heavier wallets promote good psychological health]!
Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, if leftist infiltration of BMA leadership becomes the story, the situation may not necessarily develop to their advantage.
They are there because of the problem of recruitment and retention of staff, something that the new contract will exacerbate.
I do not particularly blame the Tories (or Hunt) for the NHS staffing crisis, of which the contract is one aspect. The biggest factor is the disastourous changes to postgraduate medical training ten years ago with MMC/MTAS forced through by Patricia Hewitt and an incompetent medical educationalist establishment. This is a large part of why the grassroots are so militant, and the BMA trying to keep up.
@Charles In terms of the NHS deficit, it is simply a matter of public record that this has got a lot worse while Hunt has been in charge. He has failed to address the underlying problems, while tilting at windmills and concentrating on spin.
There is good evidence that he has been warned of the lack of preparation for his scheme, but damn the icebergs, full speed ahead!
http://www.channel4.com/news/leaked-nhs-documents-reveal-serious-7-day-concerns
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The car parks are symptomatic of how dreadfully mismanaged a 40 hour NHS is and its about time the government is getting a grip on this mammoth waste of money to let it lie largely idle.
(when say hundreds it is collegues posting feedback to our groups about lack of attendance to the saturday clinics)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3771685/EXPOSED-hard-Left-doctors-care-bashing-Tories-health.html
That is the risk, not for the government but for the Conservative Party: Jeremy Hunt is alienating thousands of natural Tories. For this generation of doctors, the Conservatives will be once more, "the nasty party". Before betting on Hunt, perhaps we should bear in mind who coined that phrase.
Good stuff from the Briton. Although his next match is against Djokovic.
Now for the NHS:
1. Immediately end nursing degrees. The demise of the NHS owes in part to this stupid Blairite decision, fuelled by the RCN, to require all nurses have degrees. The net result of this idiocy was first to block a vast swathe of otherwise ideal nursing candidates from entering their care profession. And second, and even more serious, it induced a holier-than-thou attitude amongst some nursing staff that even the most basic functions were beneath them. Chief amongst this was keeping the bloody ward clean.
2. Sack every single NHS manager. Okay, slight exaggeration but it's ridiculous Blairite nonsense to have such top-heavy over-paid managers who don't know anything about the profession. There are eye-watering pay-offs that have been lavished on managers. That's our money.
3. Computerise patient care centrally. It's ludicrous that if a patient is transferred from one hospital to another they are sent with a wodge of notes which these terribly overworked junior doctors cannot read. One hospital will not trust another so they will then run all the same tests all over again: wasting thousands of pounds and care quality.
4. Yes GP surgery hours should be extended. The point about no-shows at weekends isn't entirely relevant because it takes time for people to get used to new systems and besides ...
5. Charge patients for no-shows. £20 a no-show. Three strikes and you're out.
6. Stop sending out bloody silly reminder letters and phone calls. Total waste of money. Automated free text reminders please.
7. Obesity tax. It's very simple. The more obese you are the more you will cost the NHS so you should pay for it.
8. Smoking tax. It's very simple. The more you smoke the more you will cost the NHS so should pay for it.
and finally
9. Tourists and non-residents should have to pay for their care.
They are there because of the problem of recruitment and retention of staff, something that the new contract will exacerbate.
I do not particularly blame the Tories (or Hunt) for the NHS staffing crisis, of which the contract is one aspect. The biggest factor is the disastourous changes to postgraduate medical training ten years ago with MMC/MTAS forced through by Patricia Hewitt and an incompetent medical educationalist establishment. This is a large part of why the grassroots are so militant, and the BMA trying to keep up.
@Charles In terms of the NHS deficit, it is simply a matter of public record that this has got a lot worse while Hunt has been in charge. He has failed to address the underlying problems, while tilting at windmills and concentrating on spin.
There is good evidence that he has been warned of the lack of preparation for his scheme, but damn the icebergs, full speed ahead!
http://www.channel4.com/news/leaked-nhs-documents-reveal-serious-7-day-concerns
My point is that spending is at a high and patient throughput has not increased markedly. Yes treatment costs have risen in some cases and yes legacy PFI is a burden. But these are not unexpected issues. The deficit is caused by a failure to plan correctly and to control local spending in a disciplined manner
First the EU bankrupted Ireland, sending in Gaulitiers to run their economy and loading billions of bank debt on it to save Germanys banks. Now they impose a retrospecitve fine on their public finances of about 10% of their GDP.
Well, no longer do we in the UK have to go cap in hand appealing to the ECJ over anything. We make our own rules and if they don't like it then we can send the Navy round to discuss it with them. If Ireland had any sense they would rejoin the UK with the same rights and privileges as the Isle of Man has and be done with the EU.
You cannae change the laws of physics.
You would rapidly see differences between Tory county run health services and Labour run ones
An awful lot of people will side with the NHS/junior doctors whatever the merits of the case for or against.
Mr. Bedfordshire, we haven't left yet. There are plenty of prominent ex-Remain types who now want a departure in name only, under the cloak of convenience.
Cunning plan to undermine Labour's USP
Glorious:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3771784/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Brexit-bashing-Baroness-Wheatcroft-sparks-cruise-ship-mutiny.html
There was mutiny aboard the Queen Victoria cruise ship after pro-EU peer Patience Wheatcroft lectured her fellow passengers about the perils of Brexit.
Baroness Wheatcroft must have expected it to be plain sailing after being invited by Cunard to be a guest speaker on the ship’s swanky 14-day cruise
However, she hadn’t counted on the swell of public opinion and the waters turned distinctly choppy after Wheatcroft, below, regally set out her campaign for a second referendum to overturn the June vote, saying she would do everything in her power to stop Britain leaving Europe.
Cue maritime mayhem. According to one Brexiteer on board, the Tory peer was ‘nearly lynched’ after several audience members walked out in protest.
Medicine continues to attract many of the brightest of our students. My next door neighbour's son had a disaster where he only got a B in one of his 5 highers. That was the end of his plan to follow his father into medicine. From friends of my daughter and my own experience many years ago medical students work much harder than any other category of student (dentists were similar) and unlike most parts of Universities these days those that underperform are chucked out.
Junior doctors also continue to work absurdly long hours, hours that impact on your social life and ultimately affect your psychological balance. I think the perception is that this contract will make that even worse by upping the anti social aspects of their work life balance. When you feel yourself already stretched thin or to the limit I can understand why that makes you angry or depressed.
What we really need are a lot more doctors who live more normal lives for rather more normal salaries. But they are so expensive to train that there is an obvious attraction to working those assets very hard and the NHS has operated on this basis for a long time. In the longer term this leads to poor retention in the profession and, I fear, quite poor medicine too.
I suspect that foxinsox has it right when he identifies failures in the training regime as being at the heart of this. Does anyone in the 21st century really believe that only those working 70 hours a week can gain enough experience? The solution, however, is not straightforward, especially for a service that has had several years now of much slower growth in its budgets than it was used to whilst demand continues to soar.
Two heroic British names in one. And another Caesarean on the site
The original template was created by a young Andrew Rawnsley back in the 1990s when he coined, iirc, the infamous 'yoghurt woven yurts' phrase.
Enjoy the here and now!
Congratulations!
Support 57% (-17) Oppose 43% (+17)
Some mistake surely? I was assured by PB Tories only days ago that the junior doctors have lost 'all' public support with their latest strike proposals.
A new PB generation!
I had heard that medic degrees were going into clearing this year.
Docs have, as middle class strikers always do, overplayed their hand. Middle classes whinging about pay rarely goes down well.
A client of mine, for instance, has developed a technology for measuring blood flow through arteries during a corony arterial bypass graft. combined with imaging to allow for correct placement of the gratt.
Rapid adoption in Scandiland and the US. NHS not using - despite NICE recommendation - because doctors prefer old approach of putting their finger on the artery to judge blood flow. (Of course the data shows much greater readmission rates with the manual technique, but what does data prove, eh?)
There are a few things we could all do together to alleviate the immediate pressure.
1) Reduce attendance at A&E . It accident and emergency not anything else. By doing so the demand for ambulance service is reduced as is A&E waiting rooms and urgent cases are dealt with quickly. This may have to be a change in the publics perception and attitude. Don't turn up for an appointment you get fined but being dealt with as a drunk on Friday night you get charged. ( if that's possible?) I suppose that approach or even charging a fiver for each GP appointment (as suggested yesterday) would also work but would be considered not free at point of use . Well I pay for medicines so it's not free so no difference really.
2) we need better facilities for care of the aged in the community. This avoids the bed blocking and opens up more facilities for those who need medical care rather than supervision including after care from A&E. Of course that would involve a review of resource allocation but savings in one areas could then be better applied elsewhere and allow critical functions of the hospital to be reallocated to the sick rather than infirm.
3) we need all facilities to run 7 days a week with rota systems to deal with that but also ensure staff are not doing excessive hours. Staff are not only doctors but those that are cleaners, caterers and other back room unseen staff. Many industries work 7 days a week a number 24 hours a day and manage. Such an approach would spread the numbers across 7 days not confine it to 5 days. Major hospitals are ghost towns on Sunday's.
4) we must use very expensive equipment all the time and not let it sit idle. To a point this has been addressed over the last few years but his is not enough as the CAPEX its a huge resource drain so it has to be used to recover the expenditure. Imagine parking an aeroplane at Heathrow at 5.30pm on a Friday night and then coming back at 9am Monday morning. Just wouldn't happen as planes are viable with passengers and in the air.
5) Bring back Matron. There was something about the discipline and organisation that does not seem to exist as once was.
Easier said than done though and it requires a massive step change, a realisation that to deal with the modern demands of the NHS we need a grown up conversation and yes as we do now, use private where needed?
It won't happen of course because the unions will just shriek from the rooftops and demand more resources over and over. For the record I am a great supporter of the NHS but even I am now getting sick and tired of the antics of the staff and unions. Change or die I say..... there is no halfway house of for the service only a short sharp shock will allow it to survive....intensive care has failed.
Why in a small market town, are there 6 GP practices? That is 6 lots of overheads, duplication, profit for private business and a ton of waste. Still access is limited and the appointment system is diabolical and hours are not patient friendly.
Why is the A&E in the larger adjacent town overrun, broke and struggles with waiting times?
Because nothing has moved on to keep in step with modern life, transport and lifestyles. Just the skilled and determined actions of the medical profession to keep existing boundaries, demarcation lines and hierarchy within the the medical profession. They have no vision or realisation of how bad things are to the service users.
The six GP surgeries in a small town should be combined in surgery in the town. They should be open 24 / 7. They should employ Nurses, Drs and provide basic services that fills about 65% of A&E. I would no longer have a specific GP, it would largely be a drop in, not appointment, so I see who is on duty. Appointments would be for people with recurring conditions that need to be monitored, and with a work rota that is manageable.
To make improvements we need to start by sorting out the initial point of contact with the NHS. Right now it is unworkable. The above changes the relationship between patient, GP and A&E, and therefore access to the hospital.
Then we get onto the 'Super' Hospitals such as Adenbrookes. The race to the top to be the biggest has blinded the Administrators and Medics that the race should be to be the best. Big Hospitals don't work. By and large the rule is that the larger the organisation the poorer the care a patient receives.
Why are anesthetists, Consultants etc supplementing income from the reviled immoral private sector? Seems hypocritical to me. If they have the time then the NHS, who employ them, need that time for 7 day working. Make a choice, it is private or NHS for you salary. As is said down thread, the investment, equipment and infrastructure is there, use it!
I could do another 20 or 30 pages of rant at the dire service NHS provides, but I'll stop now.
Presumably advocating the EUs irredentist fantasy of restoring the territory gained in the Treaty of Brest Litovsk before being lost at Versailles (Ukraine etc.) is quite in order though?
I remember donkeys years ago after putting the boot into the EU on usenet in a rather incendiary and entertaining way (where you posted under your real email address - until you learned to use a fake one at any rate), I got an abusive email directly to me in response saying basically you don't know what you are talking about.
When I looked at the header, the poster was clearly British (from name and language used), but has posted from an ISP in Brussels, Belgium, so I suspect was an annoyed Eurocrat
They don't like it up 'em....