Apologies for the lack of a piece this morning. Arthur Robin Herdson was born at 2.30am and so gave his dad an even higher priority than PB. He and his mum are doing fine. Have to give a lot of credit to the NHS staff who have given a lot of support throughout. That said, he was born by a last-minute-decision c-section and was originally due on Sept 20. I worry what might have been had he gone to term.
There are no tariffs for legal services (which is what you provide at the moment iirc) for non-EU companies selling into the EU. If we left the single market I doubt that the EU would impose an all new tariff on the UK that it doesn't apply to other countries. I don't see what changes as long as you can sell services into the market. Switzerland are not single market members and are as successful at selling legal, financial and business services into the EU as us.
Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU that coincides with large parts of the Single Markets. Where they don't Swiss businesses are operating at a real disadvantage compared with their EU counterparts. For that reason Switzerland wants to open new bilaterals on banking and drugs certification (drugs certification must take place in the EU - it's a valuable bit of business). The EU isn't talking to Switzerland nowadays so there isn't a prospect of that happening soon.
There is a question of whether the UK could negotiate a similar set of bilateral arrangements. I think it's unlikely. There isn't the time or the will to compromise on either side IMO. I should note that HYUFD has a different view on this.
Also the issue with services anywhere isn't tariffs, it's non-tariff barriers. The EU and ECJ put a fair amount of effort into eliminating these when they find them. It isn't perfect by any means but it is a lot better than any other international market.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
Elimination of tariffs on goods (automotive and wine etc) should be uncontroversial. I think the City will see its business shrink. I am not an expert in this but others who are suggest it will retain areas of expertise at a global level (multidisciplinary project work) while no longer being the European finance centre (transactional work) as that will migrate to the market and legal jurisdiction it serves - ie the EU
If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
However such bilateral agreements would rely on us accepting at least some free movement from and to the EU as the Swiss presently do
I don't think anyone other than hardliners could envisage an end to free movement with France Germany and the like. The EEA/EFTA appears to allow no benefits for incomers and ways of capping movement if you get excessive movement from a place (the EFTA three month unilateral brake (renewable).
The point is also that staying in the single market does not have to be permanent. If in a decade or so our trade with the single market is declining significantly vis a viz rest of world once bilateral trade agreements are in place we can pull out of EEA/EFTA then. No need to do it all in one go (although that seems to be the direction of movement)
Most Scots realise that when the SNP politicians claim that the Brexit referendum result necessitates another indyref, they're speaking with forked tongues. If I were in the SNP, I wouldn't want another indyref. The result would be in favour of the union, and the SNP would be crushed in the following Scottish general election. The SNP leadership probably take exactly that view. They just have to demand things and say that the English (and sometimes other parties, such as the global ratings agencies) won't let them have them. That plays to their core market. And people call the Poms whingers!
Why would the SNP be crushed. Who would all the Indy voters suddenly start voting for?
Because the SNP would be viewed as twice losers and as piss-takers. Enough indy voters would vote for unionist parties - back to Earth - or abstain.
How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated? Already earlier this year the SNP lost seats and their parliamentary majority. After a second lost referendum they'd get Clegged.
The SNP at over 50 per cent a decade into Government and you think they have problems. Really.
Support for indy on this (the most hostile poll) at 46 per cent and you don't think Sturgeon will fire the starting gun. Salmond fired it at 27 per cent on YouGov and ended on 45 per cent!
I think she will set the date and win.
Except you haven't stated any reason for that belief.
If calling polls "hostile" because they predict that you'll get worse scores than you want isn't whinging, what is?
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
There are no tariffs for legal services (which is what you provide at the moment iirc) for non-EU companies selling into the EU. If we left the single market I doubt that the EU would impose an all new tariff on the UK that it doesn't apply to other countries. I don't see what changes as long as you can sell services into the market. Switzerland are not single market members and are as successful at selling legal, financial and business services into the EU as us.
Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU that coincides with large parts of the Single Markets. Where they don't Swiss businesses are operating at a real disadvantage compared with their EU counterparts. For that reason Switzerland wants to open new bilaterals on banking and drugs certification (drugs certification must take place in the EU - it's a valuable bit of business). The EU isn't talking to Switzerland nowadays so there isn't a prospect of that happening soon.
There is a question of whether the UK could negotiate a similar set of bilateral arrangements. I think it's unlikely. There isn't the time or the will to compromise on either side IMO. I should note that HYUFD has a different view on this.
Also the issue with services anywhere isn't tariffs, it's non-tariff barriers. The EU and ECJ put a fair amount of effort into eliminating these when they find them. It isn't perfect by any means but it is a lot better than any other international market.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
Elimination of tariffs on goods (automotive and wine etc) should be uncontroversial. I think the City will see its U
If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry
Not forgetting the City will still have global, non-EU business
Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU that coincides with large parts of the Single Markets. Where they don't Swiss businesses are operating at a real disadvantage compared with their EU counterparts. For that reason Switzerland wants to open new bilaterals on banking and drugs certification (drugs certification must take place in the EU - it's a valuable bit of business). The EU isn't talking to Switzerland nowadays so there isn't a prospect of that happening soon.
There is a question of whether the UK could negotiate a similar set of bilateral arrangements. I think it's unlikely. There isn't the time or the will to compromise on either side IMO. I should note that HYUFD has a different view on this.
Also the issue with services anywhere isn't tariffs, it's non-tariff barriers. The EU and ECJ put a fair amount of effort into eliminating these when they find them. It isn't perfect by any means but it is a lot better than any other international market.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
Elimination of tariffs on goods (automotive and wine etc) should be uncontroversial. I think the City will see its U
If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry
We don't need to do silly things like slapping tariffs on German cars. Just leaving the customs union and abolishing the significant tariffs it levies on imports from Japan etc. will hit the German producers. They have a cushy number in the UK market now.
538 do the same - except they aggregate polls - but the 27.2% or 30.6% Trump chances of winning are also via monte-carlo simulations. The current FO projections (D +1.9, 2/1) are too close for comfort for Clinton. It looks as if P will save her, but isn't it only now (post Labor Day) that the real action starts?
Actually voting starts on Sept. 21st if I remember correctly. Sure election day is on Nov. 8th, but people can vote early. Trump may even win the election day vote only to lose the election because of early voting.
Pennsylvania voting to the left of Michigan sure helps Hillary. But Trump can replace Pennsylvania with Michigan and turn F.O.P. into F.O.M.+ME-02 or Iowa, to win.
I'm in the view than Michigan is more winnable for Trump than Pennsylvania at the moment for 3 reasons:
A. More republican friendly, they have elected a GOP governor. B. No Philadelphia. C. It's economically more distressed, Detroit for instance.
If poor white turnout surges and the GOP still lose will that be the catalyst for them to go back to the drawing board?
No as those poor whites will vote in the next GOP primaries
However such bilateral agreements would rely on us accepting at least some free movement from and to the EU as the Swiss presently do
I don't think anyone other than hardliners could envisage an end to free movement with France Germany and the like. The EEA/EFTA appears to allow no benefits for incomers and ways of capping movement if you get excessive movement from a place (the EFTA three month unilateral brake (renewable).
The point is also that staying in the single market does not have to be permanent. If in a decade or so our trade with the single market is declining significantly vis a viz rest of world once bilateral trade agreements are in place we can pull out of EEA/EFTA then. No need to do it all in one go (although that seems to be the direction of movement)
Yes but we still have to get some membership of the Single Market first
Most Scots realise that when the SNP politicians claim that the Brexit referendum result necessitates another indyref, they're speaking with forked tongues. If I were in the SNP, I wouldn't want another indyref. The result would be in favour of the union, and the SNP would be crushed in the following Scottish general election. The SNP leadership probably take exactly that view. They just have to demand things and say that the English (and sometimes other parties, such as the global ratings agencies) won't let them have them. That plays to their core market. And people call the Poms whingers!
Why would the SNP be crushed. Who would all the Indy voters suddenly start voting for?
Because the SNP would be viewed as twice losers and as piss-takers. Enough indy voters would vote for unionist parties - back to Earth - or abstain.
How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated? Already earlier this year the SNP lost seats and their parliamentary majority. After a second lost referendum they'd get Clegged.
Twice at least.
The Bloc Quebecois, whom the SNP seem to draw a lot of inspiration from, twice lost their referendum. They continued to dominate Quebecois politics until 2011 though which was sixteen years after their second lost referendum.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU that coincides with large parts of the Single Markets. Where they don't Swiss businesses are operating at a real disadvantage compared with their EU counterparts. For that reason Switzerland wants to open new bilaterals on banking and drugs certification (drugs certification must take place in the EU - it's a valuable bit of business). The EU isn't talking to Switzerland nowadays so there isn't a prospect of that happening soon.
There is a question of whether the UK could negotiate a similar set of bilateral arrangements. I think it's unlikely. There isn't the time or the will to compromise on either side IMO. I should note that HYUFD has a different view on this.
Also the issue with services anywhere isn't tariffs, it's non-tariff barriers. The EU and ECJ put a fair amount of effort into eliminating these when they find them. It isn't perfect by any means but it is a lot better than any other international market.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
Elimination of tariffs on goods (automotive and wine etc) should be uncontroversial. I think the City will see its U
If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry
We don't need to do silly things like slapping tariffs on German cars. Just leaving the customs union and abolishing the significant tariffs it levies on imports from Japan etc. will hit the German producers. They have a cushy number in the UK market now.
That would have some impact but not as much as full tariffs which would be necessary if the EU takes action against the City
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
So what? Used to be a minority, now it is a clear majority with a plurality of UK exports going to the USA.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
Either it's more than 50% or it's not!
As I said a plurality of our trade is with the EU, more than with the U.S. and we will be negotiating with the whole EU not individual nations within it
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
So what? Used to be a minority, now it is a clear majority with a plurality of UK exports going to the USA.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
Either it's more than 50% or it's not!
As I said a plurality of our trade is with the EU, more than with the U.S. and we will be negotiating with the whole EU not individual nations within it
I wonder why the Prime Minister has bothered talking with Merkel and other leaders if we're not dealing with individual nations.
Of course we will be negotiating with the individual nations, don't be silly.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
So what? Used to be a minority, now it is a clear majority with a plurality of UK exports going to the USA.
Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU that coincides with large parts of the Single Markets. Where they don't Swiss businesses are operating at a real disadvantage compared with their EU counterparts. For that reason Switzerland wants to open new bilaterals on banking and drugs certification (drugs certification must take place in the EU - it's a valuable bit of business). The EU isn't talking to Switzerland nowadays so there isn't a prospect of that happening soon.
There is a question of whether the UK could negotiate a similar set of bilateral arrangements. I think it's unlikely. There isn't the time or the will to compromise on either side IMO. I should note that HYUFD has a different view on this.
Also the issue with services anywhere isn't tariffs, it's non-tariff barriers. The EU and ECJ put a fair amount of effort into eliminating these when they find them. It isn't perfect by any means but it is a lot better than any other international market.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
Elimination of tariffs on goods (automotive and wine etc) should be uncontroversial. I think the City will see its U
If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry
We don't need to do silly things like slapping tariffs on German cars. Just leaving the customs union and abolishing the significant tariffs it levies on imports from Japan etc. will hit the German producers. They have a cushy number in the UK market now.
That would have some impact but not as much as full tariffs which would be necessary if the EU takes action against the City
Most Scots realise that when the SNP politicians claim that the Brexit referendum result necessitates another indyref, they're speaking with forked tongues. If I were in the SNP, I wouldn't want another indyref. The result would be in favour of the union, and the SNP would be crushed in the following Scottish general election. The SNP leadership probably take exactly that view. They just have to demand things and say that the English (and sometimes other parties, such as the global ratings agencies) won't let them have them. That plays to their core market. And people call the Poms whingers!
Why would the SNP be crushed. Who would all the Indy voters suddenly start voting for?
Because the SNP would be viewed as twice losers and as piss-takers. Enough indy voters would vote for unionist parties - back to Earth - or abstain.
How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated? Already earlier this year the SNP lost seats and their parliamentary majority. After a second lost referendum they'd get Clegged.
Twice at least.
The Bloc Quebecois, whom the SNP seem to draw a lot of inspiration from, twice lost their referendum. They continued to dominate Quebecois politics until 2011 though which was sixteen years after their second lost referendum.
That's an interesting parallel. But there were 15 years between the referendums. After they lost the 1980 one, the Parti Québécois increased their voteshare and their majority (unlike the SNP), and they still had the good sense not to push for another referendum right away.
McApple exports from the UK to the EU[Ireland] are actually exports to Septica. Add in the "Amsterdam/Rotterdam" effect and I think you need to go away and think again!
Well already we're seeing a backlash within the EU against the CETA and TTIP. I doubt the Japanese trade deal gets anywhere either, the UK could easily do a better than CETA deal and get a deal done with Japan pretty quickly for bilateral tariff elimination at least.
Off the top of my head I can't think of any precedent for the Japanese government doing something pretty quickly.
Well already we're seeing a backlash within the EU against the CETA and TTIP. I doubt the Japanese trade deal gets anywhere either, the UK could easily do a better than CETA deal and get a deal done with Japan pretty quickly for bilateral tariff elimination at least.
Off the top of my head I can't think of any precedent for the Japanese government doing something pretty quickly.
It took them 22 months from deciding they'd lost WWII to accepting Allied terms, so I think I agree with you on that one.
Michael Dugher So Corbyn wants to ban "early evening socialisation". Dancing will be the next to go. Then Christmas. We've been here before #Cromwell
Just think how many businesses/jobs benefit from people going for a drink after work. Corbyn wants to hurt them.
Unhappy Hour?
And it would be done very sneakily by secondary legislation to allow the 'victims' to use her colleagues going for afternoon drinks as evidence of discrimination in a tribunal which will have all sorts of dreadful ramifications.
With any luck the government will cap all tribunal payouts at a years salary once we dre out of the EU which will derail the entire circus as companies will no longer be paranoid about facing lottery win payouts and will be much more willing to just call the bluff of spurious claimants or just give them a years salary and no reference to get shot of them.
It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.
Take out trade with RoI which is a significant portion of that and will carry on whatever happens (because although de jure it is international trade it is de facto domestic trade) the number goes down even further.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
Either it's more than 50% or it's not!
As I said a plurality of our trade is with the EU, more than with the U.S. and we will be negotiating with the whole EU not individual nations within it
I wonder why the Prime Minister has bothered talking with Merkel and other leaders if we're not dealing with individual nations.
Of course we will be negotiating with the individual nations, don't be silly.
Yes but those individual leaders will come to a collective decision, which was why Merkel, Hollande and Renzi recently held a summit to which May was not invited
It depends, are you selling the service to a UK company or European company? When a German company exhibits their business at, say, the Ideal Home show in Earls court, is that an export?
We are selling the service globally. We are not exporting anything to Spain, just using facilities there because they are the most attractive to us and our customers. This is the joy of being part of the single market, which is why we'll ensure we will continue to be so.
Presumably the customer pays you in the UK? I'm which case it's an export (of an intangible )
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
So what? Used to be a minority, now it is a clear majority with a plurality of UK exports going to the USA.
More exports go to the EU as a whole than the US
The EU is not a whole, it is 27 countries.
The EU is a whole for the purpose of the BREXIT negotiations
Well already we're seeing a backlash within the EU against the CETA and TTIP. I doubt the Japanese trade deal gets anywhere either, the UK could easily do a better than CETA deal and get a deal done with Japan pretty quickly for bilateral tariff elimination at least.
Off the top of my head I can't think of any precedent for the Japanese government doing something pretty quickly.
It took them 22 months from deciding they'd lost WWII to accepting Allied terms, so I think I agree with you on that one.
They made their minds up quite fast once they had some sunshine dropped on them
Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU that coincides with large parts of the Single Markets. Where they don't Swiss businesses are operating at a real disadvantage compared with their EU counterparts. For that reason Switzerland wants to open new bilaterals on banking and drugs certification (drugs certification must take place in the EU - it's a valuable bit of business). The EU isn't talking to Switzerland nowadays so there isn't a prospect of that happening soon.
There is a question of whether the UK could negotiate a similar set of bilateral arrangements. I think it's unlikely. There isn't the time or the will to compromise on either side IMO. I should note that HYUFD has a different view on this.
Also the issue with services anywhere isn't tariffs, it's non-tariff barriers. The EU and ECJ put a fair amount of effort into eliminating these when they find them. It isn't perfect by any means but it is a lot better than any other international market.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
Elimination of tariffs on goods (automotive and wine etc) should be uncontroversial. I think the City will see its U
If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry
We don't need to do silly things like slapping tariffs market now.
That would have some impact but not as much as full tariffs which would be necessary if the EU takes action against the City
You are talking rubbish, sorry.
It is not rubbish it is realpolitik, if we leave the single market and the EU hits the City inevitably the UK will hit back against EU companies exporting to the UK
As far as I can see my GP does the appointments in the morning then goes off to a hospital and does rounds there and sometimes is back for second surgery of the day. Sounds busy to me in fairness though often they are not available for surgeries all the time so perhaps not quite as bad as that?
On the other hand I am offered private medical by the company I am involved with and the consultant I see also works at the NHS hospital at certain times of the day. It is not unusual to have a private consultation appointment at 7 or even 8 in the evening? Mind you the last appointment i had took around 10 mins and cost 148 quid for the insurers. One coming out and one after me at least meant a revenue of at least 450 quid for 1/2 hours work if all were the same. ( noted the doc doesn't get that full whack hence the term revenue was used no fee)
I did get a nice cup of tea brought to me though.
In the meantime there are apparently staff shortages where expensive agency replacements are required ensuring even more drain on available resources. It's the disconnection of various services their skill sets on top of the application of available skilled labour that seems to show the system is not working as effectively as it could, as one cohesive force and pulling in the same direction as a team.
Can I suggest that if an organisation is run with the bare minimum of staff, then when one or two of them are absent temporary replacements are essential.
They are I completely agree
However not when some of the staff are off doing private work which was my point. As for minimum staff well most organisations run like this but the NHS has had more doctors and nurses provided over the last few years, better conditions and contracts yet still we don't seem to solve the problem. It's a bottomless pit because it's the sacred cow of public service.
I am reminded that a previous doctors strike occurred as a protest at them doing less work. I really would prefer they be honest and just say it's the money. It would be more understandable than hiding behind patient care then arbitrarily removing that care and also emergency cover.
Grown up approach and grown up solutions is the only way forward. The present political ping pong does no one any favours and certainly solves no problems.
I take the view in the end some form of limited single market access or bilateral agreements in return for limited free movement is most likely otherwise it will be a nightmare for the City and German car makers and French wine producers exporting to the UK, especially in relation to non-tariff barriers as you say even if tariffs are avoided
A nightmare? I think not. I drive a Japanese car which was made in Japan, I have a telephone which was made in Korea, my second favourite drinking wine comes from New Zealand and so on. None of those countries are member of the single market yet they manage to sell their products to us very successfully.
Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
Either it's more than 50% or it's not!
As I said a plurality of our trade is with the EU, more than with the U.S. and we will be negotiating with the whole EU not individual nations within it
I wonder why the Prime Minister has bothered talking with Merkel and other leaders if we're not dealing with individual nations.
Of course we will be negotiating with the individual nations, don't be silly.
Yes but those individual leaders will come to a collective decision, which was why Merkel, Hollande and Renzi recently held a summit to which May was not invited
It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.
Take out trade with RoI which is a significant portion of that and will carry on whatever happens (because although de jure it is international trade it is de facto domestic trade) the number goes down even further.
As long as the ROI is in the EU it will agree EU terms of trade with the UK and we have a large trade surplus with Ireland
It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.
Take out trade with RoI which is a significant portion of that and will carry on whatever happens (because although de jure it is international trade it is de facto domestic trade) the number goes down even further.
As long as the ROI is in the EU it will agree EU terms of trade with the UK and we have a large trade surplus with Ireland
Bollocks - all that would happen if tariffs were put in place is that it would go via NI. There is not a cats chance in hell of trade tariffs between NI and RoI - ever. The RoI government would leave the EU if that was imposed on them as it would ruin their economy.
In any case, if anyone tried it it would just go across in disguise and in lorryloads via farms which have barns with one end on one side of the border and the other on thr other side.
"The lower house committee drafting legislation on the politically sensitive topic instead proposed giving local people hiring preference as a way to ease pressure on domestic job markets without infringing too much on EU free movement rules. The compromise bill, criticised by the far-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) as too vague and a betrayal of voters’ demand for quotas in a 2014 referendum that must be implemented by February, now moves to the full lower house for debate." https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/switzerland-dodges-clash-with-eu-over-immigration/
Michael Dugher So Corbyn wants to ban "early evening socialisation". Dancing will be the next to go. Then Christmas. We've been here before #Cromwell
Is he going to ban it at their next conference?
On a tangent, just got the new Deus Ex game and I am really enjoying it so far (always was going to as I have been hooked since playing the very first one) but will have to see if it hits the heights of Human Revolution. It looks gorgeous on the Xbox One so I would imagine the PC version is absolutely incredible on a high spec rig.
It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.
Take out trade with RoI which is a significant portion of that and will carry on whatever happens (because although de jure it is international trade it is de facto domestic trade) the number goes down even further.
As long as the ROI is in the EU it will agree EU terms of trade with the UK and we have a large trade surplus with Ireland
Bollocks - all that would happen if tariffs were put in place is that it would go via NI. There is not a cats chance in hell of trade tariffs between NI and RoI - ever. The RoI government would leave the EU if that was imposed on them as it would ruin their economy.
In any case, if anyone tried it it would just go across in disguise and in lorryloads via farms which have barns with one end on one side of the border and the other on thr other side.
You would presume they would but who knows, especially as the ROI is now part of the Eurozone? In the meantime while they made up their mind there would be tariffs between NI and ROI
Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).
Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).
Mr Dancer, my little brother (he's 35) is playing Deus Ex right now
Comments
The point is also that staying in the single market does not have to be permanent. If in a decade or so our trade with the single market is declining significantly vis a viz rest of world once bilateral trade agreements are in place we can pull out of EEA/EFTA then. No need to do it all in one go (although that seems to be the direction of movement)
How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated? Already earlier this year the SNP lost seats and their parliamentary majority. After a second lost referendum they'd get Clegged. Except you haven't stated any reason for that belief.
If calling polls "hostile" because they predict that you'll get worse scores than you want isn't whinging, what is?
Not forgetting the City will still have global, non-EU business
The Bloc Quebecois, whom the SNP seem to draw a lot of inspiration from, twice lost their referendum. They continued to dominate Quebecois politics until 2011 though which was sixteen years after their second lost referendum.
Of course we will be negotiating with the individual nations, don't be silly.
Dugdale will never be FM.
Davidson will never be FM.
Rennie will never be FM.
'Either it's more than 50% or it's not!'
It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.
With any luck the government will cap all tribunal payouts at a years salary once we dre out of the EU which will derail the entire circus as companies will no longer be paranoid about facing lottery win payouts and will be much more willing to just call the bluff of spurious claimants or just give them a years salary and no reference to get shot of them.
Shall set about the pre-race piece presently.
However not when some of the staff are off doing private work which was my point. As for minimum staff well most organisations run like this but the NHS has had more doctors and nurses provided over the last few years, better conditions and contracts yet still we don't seem to solve the problem. It's a bottomless pit because it's the sacred cow of public service.
I am reminded that a previous doctors strike occurred as a protest at them doing less work. I really would prefer they be honest and just say it's the money. It would be more understandable than hiding behind patient care then arbitrarily removing that care and also emergency cover.
Grown up approach and grown up solutions is the only way forward. The present political ping pong does no one any favours and certainly solves no problems.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cj72xw8WsAEV81h.jpg
In any case, if anyone tried it it would just go across in disguise and in lorryloads via farms which have barns with one end on one side of the border and the other on thr other side.
"The lower house committee drafting legislation on the politically sensitive topic instead proposed giving local people hiring preference as a way to ease pressure on domestic job markets without infringing too much on EU free movement rules.
The compromise bill, criticised by the far-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) as too vague and a betrayal of voters’ demand for quotas in a 2014 referendum that must be implemented by February, now moves to the full lower house for debate."
https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/switzerland-dodges-clash-with-eu-over-immigration/
'Owen Smith holds Glasgow rally down a dark alley'
http://tinyurl.com/huyvekq
On a tangent, just got the new Deus Ex game and I am really enjoying it so far (always was going to as I have been hooked since playing the very first one) but will have to see if it hits the heights of Human Revolution. It looks gorgeous on the Xbox One so I would imagine the PC version is absolutely incredible on a high spec rig.