If we haven't declared article 50 before the start of 2018 I think she will be in real trouble as the core Brexiteers MPs erupt into open warfare, as that would suggest we might not even be officially out by the next GE.
What are they going to do specifically? I mean, they could challenge her for the leadership, but if she's looking competent and throwing bits of unrelated red meat at the membership (grammar schools etc) and has a good story to tell about needing to work with Scotland and Northern Ireland or whatever it's not obvious that they'd beat her.
I think a challenge would work, personally. If she hasn't gotten to a place where we can declare by 2018 she will hardly look competent, economic hard times were due regardless of the Brexit vote so that may hit her too, and in terms of Scotland and NI, it's the argument most likely to work on me (had we a guarantee Scotland would not vote to leave so long as we Remained, I'd have voted Remain), but it's already factored in, we all voted as one and the outcome was clear, if in 2 more years they haven't prepared for it well that's another blow on the competence.
This is the point where she shows the smack of firm government and fires the three incompetent ministers who have failed to deliver Brexit.
If he is angry at something most supporters, like all partisans, will reflect his anger even if it is unreasonable. Seen quite often with 'why are you asking me about X and not thing I want to talk about? ' that everyone pulls out now and again
Corbyn’s handling of anything that does not comply with his set discussion piece is always piss poor. Things may have improved by 2020, but old dogs and new tricks seems very apt.
These figures show how being part of the UK protects living standards in Scotland.
Scotland weathered a dramatic slump in oil revenues last year because we are part of a United Kingdom that has at its heart a system for pooling and sharing resources across the country as a whole.
It is important that continues and the financial deal between the UK and Scottish governments, struck last year as part of the transfer of new tax and welfare powers to Holyrood, means real security for Scotland.
The fact public spending was £1,200 per head higher in Scotland than the UK as a whole also demonstrates that the United Kingdom, not the European Union, is the vital union for Scotland’s prosperity.
Or in other words Scotland is a parasite that we are better without.
Who is 'we' in this scenario? The UK is not better off without Scotland even if it is costing more per head, because the UK would be diminished in so many ways without it.
Name them.
Import duties on shortbread.
Well, when you put it like that...
But seriously, there's a lot of handwavy "security" nonsense, but really what do we get out of the Union that is worth all the preferential treatment compared to the rest of the country?
If you start treating a nation-state as merely a transactional artifice, you're doomed. As a country, we have bet the farm on London. It has repaid the national investment (over many decades) very well, bar the £2 trillion odd cost of the crash.
London and the South East subsidise everywhere else, not just Scotland. What do they get out of it? For clarity, I live in Wales, I'm not coming over all Alistair.
You would have to be a complete fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Since places like Belize and Tuvalu are able to survive as independent nations it would be odd if Scotland couldnt
As with Brexit there is a risk of a hit to living standards in the short term. Beyond that would depend on the competence of their government.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
You would have to be a fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
This is a subject I happen to know something about since I had a (unionist) friend a few years back who was involved in its compilation and bored me to tears with its history and detail.
It was devised way back by Ian Lang as Scottish Secretary as a propaganda weapon to use against Labour devolutionists. The then Chancellor Ken Clarke advised strongly against it pointing out that in years of high oil revenues it would show the opposite to what was required. He was right. Indeed this is only the second GERS in the last twenty five years which doesn't show revenues per head in Scotland higher than the UK average.
It does not tell you about he finances of an independent Scotland since not only would they make different choices eg on defence, but that money spent on central services which is ascribed to Scotland in GERS would be spent in Scotland and thus have an economic impact on revenues in Scotland. This point was made openly a number of years ago by Dr Andrew Goudie who was the Economic Adviser to the Labour/Liberal Executive.
If you conducted a GERS type execrcise for every "region" of the UK then only London would emerge with a below the UK average deficit. Does this mean that London subsidises the rest of the country or does it mean that London prospers on the back of the rest of the country. In fact in terms of GDP per head (even without oil) Scotland is the closest to the UK average at 98 per cent and including oil probably has the only surplus on the balance of payments of any UK region or nation.
Finally you should note that despite all of the above the GERS deficit for Scotland is less in percentage GDP terms than the UK one in 2009/10!
Hmmm. Interesting perambulation, however GERS was adopted and adapted by the SNP Government and has been used by them for 3 or arguably 4 terms of Government as their authoritative statistical publication about Scottish finances.
As the SNP put it in the "White Paper" before the Referendum back in 2013:
"The starting point for this analysis is the National Statistics publication, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS). GERS is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances." http://www.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf page 87.
So I'd suggest the above argument by @scottslass is pushing it a little by citing ancient political history.
I don't think many are questioning the ecocomic viability of an independent Scotland, it is more about the sacrifices necessary to secure that viability, and how far back the economy would fall. On both these points the Nationalists have been serially misleading, which us why their argued case keeps collapsing.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Unquestionably f**ked
I would argue saying it is unquestionable is the arrogant position.
Viable is a pretty low bar to clear though. Scotland would survive, but may not thrive.
Of course Scotland would survive, after some PIGS style austerity (not the milder case we have had) they would get things back to stability but be a substantially worse off economy and still have to deal with the over dependence on a declining economic sector. Nobody in Scotland, Unionist or Nationalist, is dealing with that issue.
I think due to traingate Don Brind could be right. This is hurting Corbyn, more than anything else in the campaign. The undecides are only deciding one way. The die hard Corbyn fans are putting off the others because they are proving in their response to this that they really are a cult.
You would have to be a complete fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Of course it is. We're in danger of re-running the EUref campaign, only this time we're the idiot Remain camp. A 9.5% deficit is large. It's about 4-5 years of Scottish trend economic growth. But that is not an insuperable obstacle to an independent Scotland.
I leave for a bit to do some work and traingate is still going? How has Corbyn not fired his whole media team?
Implying he has a media team.
Seamus is on top of all this, don't you worry. The agenda is to generate, or keep running, any story that makes it look to cultists (who are voting this week) that their hero is being attacked or picked on by Blairites or neo-liberal maniacs like Branson. So it's been a top day.
Mr. Jonnie, whilst this may have changed, I'm pretty sure Erdogan was very much against Assad (one of the reasons Turkey was soft for a long time on IS/Daesh).
You would have to be a complete fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Of course it is. We're in danger of re-running the EUref campaign, only this time we're the idiot Remain camp. A 9.5% deficit is large. It's about 4-5 years of Scottish trend economic growth. But that is not an insuperable obstacle to an independent Scotland.
But with no cuts/tax rises? A fair point about the word viable though. To argue there would be no economic risks would be absurd.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Unquestionably f**ked
In the Middle East (UAE/ Saudi Arabia) you get a poorer exchange rate for Scottish notes than English ones? Maybe they have some sense over there.
That's very true, but I never could understand why. The rate differential is only seen is hotels though, not in banks - otherwise there would be a great arb opportunity in selling English notes to buy Scottish ones
Finally you should note that despite all of the above the GERS deficit for Scotland is less in percentage GDP terms than the UK one in 2009/10!
You made some good points, but you're last one might have something to do with the £45 billion bailout of The Royal Bank Of Scotland based in er. Edinburgh. I wonder if Scotland was independent at the time she could have afforded it without needing a bailout like Ireland did.
Corbyn’s handling of anything that does not comply with his set discussion piece is always piss poor. Things may have improved by 2020, but old dogs and new tricks seems very apt.
He should have been briefed that any questions about trains be met with a reply targeting Branson and VT.
Giving the media more fishing to do isn't going to achieve anything except keep the story running a few more days - doesn't Seumas understand silly season?
You would have to be a complete fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Of course it is. We're in danger of re-running the EUref campaign, only this time we're the idiot Remain camp. A 9.5% deficit is large. It's about 4-5 years of Scottish trend economic growth. But that is not an insuperable obstacle to an independent Scotland.
But with no cuts/tax rises? A fair point about the word viable though. To argue there would be no economic risks would be absurd.
We're going to have to pay for Brexit. It'll cost us between £20-40bn just for the next two years. Want to change your vote? Didn't think so. If you wanted to run with the IFS report, the cost of Brexit from 2030-2100 will be about £5 trillion imaginary pounds.
You would have to be a complete fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Of course it is. We're in danger of re-running the EUref campaign, only this time we're the idiot Remain camp. A 9.5% deficit is large. It's about 4-5 years of Scottish trend economic growth. But that is not an insuperable obstacle to an independent Scotland.
But with no cuts/tax rises? A fair point about the word viable though. To argue there would be no economic risks would be absurd.
We're going to have to pay for Brexit. It'll cost us between £20-40bn just for the next two years. Want to change your vote? Didn't think so. If you wanted to run with the IFS report, the cost of Brexit from 2030-2100 will be about £5 trillion imaginary pounds.
You would have to be a complete fool and a particularly arrogant one at that to seriously question the "economic viability" of an independent Scotland. To do it on the basis of the GERS analysis would add ignorant to that description.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Of course it is. We're in danger of re-running the EUref campaign, only this time we're the idiot Remain camp. A 9.5% deficit is large. It's about 4-5 years of Scottish trend economic growth. But that is not an insuperable obstacle to an independent Scotland.
But with no cuts/tax rises? A fair point about the word viable though. To argue there would be no economic risks would be absurd.
We're going to have to pay for Brexit. It'll cost us between £20-40bn just for the next two years. Want to change your vote? Didn't think so. If you wanted to run with the IFS report, the cost of Brexit from 2030-2100 will be about £5 trillion imaginary pounds.
That doesn't mean you can't have the argument here on PB!
I'm fighting the good fight for the right to party Scottish self-determination .
It requires considerable mental contortions to have voted Leave AND want to deny the Scots Sindy II. I would hate to see them leave, and I think they'll have a much, much tougher time than we will, but if that's what they truly want? Godspeed Scotland.
I think due to traingate Don Brind could be right. This is hurting Corbyn, more than anything else in the campaign. The undecides are only deciding one way. The die hard Corbyn fans are putting off the others because they are proving in their response to this that they really are a cult.
Bransons timing was perfect, similtaneous with the ballots going out.
A brief-ish comment on the LD "revival". It is patchy at best and much of it is happening in areas of traditional strength as might be expected but there are unexpected pockets cropping up in previously "moribund" areas such as my part of East London where the LDs in Tower Hamlets and Newham are slowly building up from nothing.
All parties have moribund areas or rather oases of activity in moribund deserts. There is no "national" political party in the UK - we have a series of semi-regional groupings which overlap in places called "marginals".
On the EU, with Curly, Mo and Larry in charge of the process, I'm not hopeful. I agree we need to be out of the Single Market but I also think instead of a "Swiss model" or a "Norwegian model" we need to come up with a "British model".
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal. That gives us plenty of room to get the kind of deal we want which is tailored to us and not to other prospective leavers.
I leave for a bit to do some work and traingate is still going? How has Corbyn not fired his whole media team?
Implying he has a media team.
Clearly Seumas is getting paid for nothing, how socialist.
And paid very well I gather, with security of a secondment from Guardian. As a regular reader of the newspaper this makes me very angry. If it doesn't think it will work out he shouldn't have moved.
My thoughts are some bright spark within Corbyn’s entourage came up with the idea of filming a spin-op whilst en route to Newcastle which would add a little glitter to their rail nationalisation meme.
Don't think it was planned, however Corbyn agreed to this, without considering either the presents of CCTV, or the boss of Virgin objecting to his brand being maligned. – The rest is history, or more like next week’s chip wrapper imho.
There's quite a lot in that. Corbyn and the team around him still don't seem to have grasped the extent to which the rules of their game have changed since he was an irrelevant backbencher. Simply by virtue of the office he holds, irrespective of what the current polling is, what he says now matters and people who would once have shrugged off his comments will now fight back - or get their retaliations in first.
My thoughts are some bright spark within Corbyn’s entourage came up with the idea of filming a spin-op whilst en route to Newcastle which would add a little glitter to their rail nationalisation meme.
Don't think it was planned, however Corbyn agreed to this, without considering either the presents of CCTV, or the boss of Virgin objecting to his brand being maligned. – The rest is history, or more like next week’s chip wrapper imho.
There's quite a lot in that. Corbyn and the team around him still don't seem to have grasped the extent to which the rules of their game have changed since he was an irrelevant backbencher. Simply by virtue of the office he holds, irrespective of what the current polling is, what he says now matters and people who would once have shrugged off his comments will now fight back - or get their retaliations in first.
It's almost as if he doesn't want the job he is desperately clinging on to.
My thoughts are some bright spark within Corbyn’s entourage came up with the idea of filming a spin-op whilst en route to Newcastle which would add a little glitter to their rail nationalisation meme.
Don't think it was planned, however Corbyn agreed to this, without considering either the presents of CCTV, or the boss of Virgin objecting to his brand being maligned. – The rest is history, or more like next week’s chip wrapper imho.
There's quite a lot in that. Corbyn and the team around him still don't seem to have grasped the extent to which the rules of their game have changed since he was an irrelevant backbencher. Simply by virtue of the office he holds, irrespective of what the current polling is, what he says now matters and people who would once have shrugged off his comments will now fight back - or get their retaliations in first.
In the game of thrones you win or you spark a twitterstorm.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
I leave for a bit to do some work and traingate is still going? How has Corbyn not fired his whole media team?
Implying he has a media team.
Clearly Seumas is getting paid for nothing, how socialist.
And paid very well I gather, with security of a secondment from Guardian. As a regular reader of the newspaper this makes me very angry. If it doesn't think it will work out he shouldn't have moved.
I don't understand why the Guardian didn't force his hand. Resign or don't bother. No secondment and no returning.
If you conducted a GERS type execrcise for every "region" of the UK then only London would emerge with a below the UK average deficit. Does this mean that London subsidises the rest of the country or does it mean that London prospers on the back of the rest of the country. In fact in terms of GDP per head (even without oil) Scotland is the closest to the UK average at 98 per cent and including oil probably has the only surplus on the balance of payments of any UK region or nation.
That's a fair point - one Neil Lovatt makes in his blog:
Over the past 12 months the position has got worse, with Scotland paying in £400 less than the UK average. That still leaves Scotland was one of the strongest areas of the UK when it comes to tax revenue as the UK figures are heavily skewed by the London effect.
So with tax comfortably in the UK ballpark (if not ahead of it on a median basis) what's the problem?
The issue is spending. Whilst Scotland has in the past brought in more in tax it has spent far more than the rest of the UK. The net effect of these two figures gives us the higher Scottish deficit and the fiscal transfer from rUK to Scotland.
However that is nothing to apologise for and I for one wouldn't doff my cap to the UK for a rightful transfer of money back to Scotland (and many other areas of the UK) from London. Without the UK and the free and open market that goes along with it London would not be the powerhouse of tax revenue that it is right now, therefore by benefitting from the single UK market it's only right that London redistributes some of its wealth throughout the UK. That rightfully includes Scotland.
He walked past empty seats. He declined other seats he was offered. He sat on the floor, made a PR film about not having a seat, then went and sat in a seat for the majority of the journey.
Corbyn’s handling of anything that does not comply with his set discussion piece is always piss poor. Things may have improved by 2020, but old dogs and new tricks seems very apt.
He should have been briefed that any questions about trains be met with a reply targeting Branson and VT.
Giving the media more fishing to do isn't going to achieve anything except keep the story running a few more days - doesn't Seumas understand silly season?
Milne is not a savvy media spin operator, despite years in the business. I'm sure the Messiah ignores him and his advice. Corbyn is Reginald Perrin and ploughs his own furrow.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
No it hasn't. It's one of the reasons why Sturgeon's bluster about a second referendum is so very hollow. Nothing has really changed since last time, the fundamental questions still need answers.
No it hasn't. It's one of the reasons why Sturgeon's bluster about a second referendum is so very hollow. Nothing has really changed since last time, the fundamental questions still need answers.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
Well, they don't meet the Euro criteria. They would need to peg their chosen currency to the Euro during the two-year convergence period.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
No it hasn't. It's one of the reasons why Sturgeon's bluster about a second referendum is so very hollow. Nothing has really changed since last time, the fundamental questions still need answers.
Or 5% More Need To Want To Leave So Much They Don't Need The Answers Or Will Accept The SNP Word. It is possible.
I leave for a bit to do some work and traingate is still going? How has Corbyn not fired his whole media team?
Implying he has a media team.
Clearly Seumas is getting paid for nothing, how socialist.
And paid very well I gather, with security of a secondment from Guardian. As a regular reader of the newspaper this makes me very angry. If it doesn't think it will work out he shouldn't have moved.
I don't understand why the Guardian didn't force his hand. Resign or don't bother. No secondment and no returning.
Clearly has friends in high places. I seem to recall reading that the other journos are seething about all the conflict of interests involved in such an arrangement.
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal.
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
No it hasn't. It's one of the reasons why Sturgeon's bluster about a second referendum is so very hollow. Nothing has really changed since last time, the fundamental questions still need answers.
Or 5% More Need To Want To Leave So Much They Don't Need The Answers Or Will Accept The SNP Word. It is possible.
I suppose his names Dave and he will have mental health issues....
"A French national who went on a knife rampage at a Queensland hostel late on Tuesday night screamed 'Allahu Akbar' before killing a British woman, 21, and critically wounding a man, 30, also from the UK, police said on Wednesday. The knifeman, 29, is being investigated over possible links to terrorism, and screamed the Muslim phrase again when police arrived to arrest him. A third man was also stabbed but did not suffer serious injuries"
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
No it hasn't. It's one of the reasons why Sturgeon's bluster about a second referendum is so very hollow. Nothing has really changed since last time, the fundamental questions still need answers.
Or 5% More Need To Want To Leave So Much They Don't Need The Answers Or Will Accept The SNP Word. It is possible.
Edit not sure why my phone capitalised all that.
But they don't. The most favourable Indy pollster, Panelbase, has yes on 47%. I don't see a strategy to get Indy over the line if after the Brexit vote, Scottish people still can't be convinced in a majority to go independent.
There is no problem in Britain that cannot be solved by nationalisation.
The question is not whether nationalisation is a universal Panacea; the question is whether those advocating it can find their arse with both hands and a map.
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal.
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
A breakaway leader of a confederation of independent European states? And the EU are countering this threat by creating a (grand) army? Where have I heard this before??
I leave for a bit to do some work and traingate is still going? How has Corbyn not fired his whole media team?
Implying he has a media team.
Clearly Seumas is getting paid for nothing, how socialist.
And paid very well I gather, with security of a secondment from Guardian. As a regular reader of the newspaper this makes me very angry. If it doesn't think it will work out he shouldn't have moved.
I don't understand why the Guardian didn't force his hand. Resign or don't bother. No secondment and no returning.
One day there is going to be a series of good stories about all this. "My year with Jeremy"
@SkyNewsBreak: World's largest aircraft #Airlander10 has crashed during its second test flight in Bedfordshire but the manufacturer says no-one was injured
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal.
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
This is why I favour as comprehensive a deal as possible. We're the 2nd largest NATO contributor, the largest SIGINT & intelligence provider and the 2nd largest economy. We should be looking at a full package - no other country could replicate our offer. In my fantasy world, we'd boost the defence budget to 3% (sorry NHS) and use that money for maritime security in the Baltic & Med.
SkyNews Jeremy Corbyn is to pledge cash for "patients not contractors" as he sets out plans to "renationalise" the NHS https://t.co/3VunPd1bYG
.......and right on q Labour return to its "safe space" of the NHS when under attack. Of course Andy Burnham a Labour health minister still remains the only minister ever to privatise an NHS hospital. As was pointed out recently by another poster Labour also introduced more private services within the NHS than the Tories ever did.
Even their NHS "safe space" is becoming an inconvenient truth.
The Conservatives are the same with military matters. It is the Tories who have hacked our armed forces to bits, both now and under Mrs Thatcher, yet it is Labour seen as weak on defence. Nixon and China.
It was ever thus. The Tories are the only party that can cut defence, and Labour the only one that can fundamentally tinker with the NHS
This is the rolling poll of around 3000 people the LA Times has gone for rather than conducting separate samples. It's a better poll for Clinton after last week's near tie but I'm not sure about its value or significance.
Still looking at Missouri and Georgia as states which Clinton might take - the Carolinas are interesting and Trump isn't done in Nevada quite yet. There seem to be some new "swing" states this time but most are former GOP states and lacking in the big EV numbers. Clinton seems to have a small but definite lead in OH.
If there is one commodity of which there can never be enough for a public always ravenous for linguistic originality, it is the suffix “-gate”. My dream is that one day Bill Gates will marry the Star Trek actress Gates McFadden – and that while honeymooning in Berlin, and fretting about being broke as we all do, she is arrested by Interpol after trying to flog the Brandenburg Gate to a credulous Chinese tourist. If anything could sate this appetite, it is Gates Gates’s Gate-gate.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
To be fair, they'd rapidly grow out of that if it were their own money at stake. They are canny people, after all.
On the subject of "their own money" in terms of Scottish independence, has the issue of what currency they would use been sorted? That was rather a big issue in 2014 and any discussion of an independent Scotland's economic viability seems rather premature until it has been resolved.
No it hasn't. It's one of the reasons why Sturgeon's bluster about a second referendum is so very hollow. Nothing has really changed since last time, the fundamental questions still need answers.
Or 5% More Need To Want To Leave So Much They Don't Need The Answers Or Will Accept The SNP Word. It is possible.
Edit not sure why my phone capitalised all that.
But they don't. The most favourable Indy pollster, Panelbase, has yes on 47%. I don't see a strategy to get Indy over the line if after the Brexit vote, Scottish people still can't be convinced in a majority to go independent.
Possible Does Not Mean Likely. The next year will be crucial.
I’ve spoken to one member of the crew, who, perhaps understandably, was a little bit reluctant to go on the record. “You’ve seen what this train is like. It’s like this every day,” they said. The inference is clear. I really haven’t had any trouble finding a seat at all.
The economic viability of an independent Scotland is unquestionable?
Unquestionably f**ked
In the Middle East (UAE/ Saudi Arabia) you get a poorer exchange rate for Scottish notes than English ones? Maybe they have some sense over there.
That's very true, but I never could understand why. The rate differential is only seen is hotels though, not in banks - otherwise there would be a great arb opportunity in selling English notes to buy Scottish ones
My wife is the one that goes to the UAE/ SA (Probably the only woman in the UK who would - when she arrived she was fasttracked through customs to avoid upsetting the men) - I think the difference would be eaten up in 'commissions/ fees" paid to the currency exchangers.
SkyNews Jeremy Corbyn is to pledge cash for "patients not contractors" as he sets out plans to "renationalise" the NHS https://t.co/3VunPd1bYG
.......and right on q Labour return to its "safe space" of the NHS when under attack. Of course Andy Burnham a Labour health minister still remains the only minister ever to privatise an NHS hospital. As was pointed out recently by another poster Labour also introduced more private services within the NHS than the Tories ever did.
Even their NHS "safe space" is becoming an inconvenient truth.
It's virtual reality NHS sloganising. Make up a situation, then say you'd fix it using whatever cliché suits your agenda.
No facts required.
The main problem with the NHS is itself. It's truly an "emperors clothes " situation and until someone has the courage to stand up and say so it will remain a political bottomless pit into which "resources" are thrown but without any meaningful efficient outcome.
Fact. I cannot believe, even admitting the enormous pressures it faces, that endlessly throwing money without improving processes (people I know who have to work with the NHS say it's worse than Whitehall) that would also save money, is the only option.
Coming into contact with the NHS quite often, almost always the takeaway impression is of wonderful medical care from hard working medical staff, backed up by pitiful bread-and-butter organisation. Which would suggest getting in some decent managers, except that they've tried expensive management before, it isn't politically popular, and the organisation appears to repel attempts to impose simple management solutions.
Having spent years in the public sector I do know that people who come from the private sector under the impression that 'common sense and some initiative' are all it needs usually crash and burn, or burnout. To get things done in a large complex organisation generally takes a certain wiliness and a huge reserve of persistence.
I am married to a very good physician who simply refuses to believe that public health policy is in fact a different discipline than medicine, or that managers should ever have input into medical decisions.
That is a huge part of the problem, in that I think she is far from unique in the medical profession.
There is no problem in Britain that cannot be solved by nationalisation.
The question is not whether nationalisation is a universal Panacea; the question is whether those advocating it can find their arse with both hands and a map.
Nationalisation eliminates a lot of inefficiency by integration (eg no more dividends and all the high paid numpties driving up motorways in fast cars to sell and sort contractual terms) are replaced with a manager saying 'do this'. After a while it becomes inefficient as the workforce are able to extract fabulous terms and pay over time for ever less work.
Privatisation brings in robust reform of inefficient labour practices but then gets inefficient as supply chains lengthen, exec pay goes stratospheric and the high paid sales guys etc in fast cars reappear as something that was done by someone saying 'Do this' is replaced by a contract between split up companies.
Probably best to switch between nat and priv every 30-40 years.
Except of course your info is wrong. The following extract from Scotland Goes Pop, a pro indy but pretty good site, carries a poll of polls since the Euro Ref. It shows a marginal majority for independence. That might not be enough for Sturgeon to fire the starting pistol but remember Salmond fired it at 27 per cent!
"We've now had enough post-EU referendum polls on independence to make it worthwhile reintroducing the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls. I'm going to tweak the rules slightly, though. As before, the headline figures will be based on an average of the most recent poll from each polling firm, but only firms that have reported since the EU referendum (and thereafter within the last three months) will be included. If a firm has recently conducted both telephone and online polls, the midway point between those two polls' results will be used (in effect each of the two polls will count as a 'half-poll').
Today's figures are based on an online poll from Panelbase, an online poll from YouGov, and both an online and telephone poll from Survation. I'm excluding the ScotPulse poll showing an enormous Yes lead because I don't think it was an entirely credible poll (and ScotPulse aren't a BPC firm in any case).
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal.
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
In my fantasy world, we'd boost the defence budget to 3% (sorry NHS) and use that money for maritime security in the Baltic & Med.
Sadly, I don't think the EU will put that much value in our defence contribution - certainly it won't win us bank passporting and no free movement. At 3% of 15% our defence spending would be 0.45% of EU GDP which won't buy much of an army or Navy, and that doesn't even consider whether the UK public would be happy having our army serving under EU civilian control.
Except of course your info is wrong. The following extract from Scotland Goes Pop, a pro indy but pretty good site, carries a poll of polls since the Euro Ref. It shows a marginal majority for independence. That might not be enough for Sturgeon to fire the starting pistol but remember Salmond fired it at 27 per cent!
We are aware of this blog. The proprietor is formerly of this parish.
I leave for a bit to do some work and traingate is still going? How has Corbyn not fired his whole media team?
Implying he has a media team.
Clearly Seumas is getting paid for nothing, how socialist.
And paid very well I gather, with security of a secondment from Guardian. As a regular reader of the newspaper this makes me very angry. If it doesn't think it will work out he shouldn't have moved.
I don't understand why the Guardian didn't force his hand. Resign or don't bother. No secondment and no returning.
He is apparently "very friendly" with the editor...but I am sure that had nothing to do with it. By all accounts if it had been rank and file Guardians journos they would have happily assisted him in emptying his desk.
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal.
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
In my fantasy world, we'd boost the defence budget to 3% (sorry NHS) and use that money for maritime security in the Baltic & Med.
Sadly, I don't think the EU will put that much value in our defence contribution - certainly it won't win us bank passporting and no free movement. At 3% of 15% our defence spending would be 0.45% of EU GDP which won't buy much of an army or Navy, and that doesn't even consider whether the UK public would be happy having our army serving under EU civilian control.
I'd rather be out of the single market than have our military under any kind of EU command and control structure.
@SkyNewsBreak: World's largest aircraft #Airlander10 has crashed during its second test flight in Bedfordshire but the manufacturer says no-one was injured
Watching Corbyn's latest explanation of Traingate at his press conference this morning, it all felt a bit Father Ted - "that money was only resting in my account".
But even funnier...
Poor Labour Party. I'm starting to feel sorry for them now.
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal.
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
In my fantasy world, we'd boost the defence budget to 3% (sorry NHS) and use that money for maritime security in the Baltic & Med.
Sadly, I don't think the EU will put that much value in our defence contribution - certainly it won't win us bank passporting and no free movement. At 3% of 15% our defence spending would be 0.45% of EU GDP which won't buy much of an army or Navy, and that doesn't even consider whether the UK public would be happy having our army serving under EU civilian control.
I'd rather be out of the single market than have our military under any kind of EU command and control structure.
We could provide maritime security outwith EU control. The EU would be an ally, just as the US is.
@SkyNewsBreak: World's largest aircraft #Airlander10 has crashed during its second test flight in Bedfordshire but the manufacturer says no-one was injured
Looks like a bum landing...
Hit a telegraph pole on its way in, according to ITV news. Hopefully, pilot error due to inexperience rather than any technical issue.
This is the rolling poll of around 3000 people the LA Times has gone for rather than conducting separate samples. It's a better poll for Clinton after last week's near tie but I'm not sure about its value or significance.
Still looking at Missouri and Georgia as states which Clinton might take - the Carolinas are interesting and Trump isn't done in Nevada quite yet. There seem to be some new "swing" states this time but most are former GOP states and lacking in the big EV numbers. Clinton seems to have a small but definite lead in OH.
Nate Silver's recent piece on the LA tracker is noteworthy. Essentially add +4 to Clinton's score.
Presently "The Donald" has no path to 270. He has to turn around Pennsylvania and Florida and hope to cling on elsewhere. Lose either and even taking Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and all Romney and he still can't make 270. Not looking hopeful for Trumpsters.
I’ve just had my ticket inspected. Without mentioning that I’m a journalist I try to get a conversation started: “Plenty of spare seats today...,” I say. “Aye, even enough for Mr Corbyn,” comes the reply.
Its the ridicule that does for politicians. Ed Miliband got more blasting from lefty comics than Cameron (before pig-gate), because he was such an easy target.
Comments
news.bbc.co.uk - Most read
1. Corbyn angered by train seat questions
Turkish tanks have crossed the border to clear someone (I think it's IS/Daesh, but not sure) from near one of their border towns.
Now I've looked it up. I didn't realise it also means a person on point of death. Labour party in a nutshell.
Smith 2016
London and the South East subsidise everywhere else, not just Scotland. What do they get out of it? For clarity, I live in Wales, I'm not coming over all Alistair.
As with Brexit there is a risk of a hit to living standards in the short term. Beyond that would depend on the competence of their government.
However given the Scots penchant for electing hatchet faced, authoritarian lefties and socialists I wouldnt be too optimistic.
As the SNP put it in the "White Paper" before the Referendum back in 2013:
"The starting point for this analysis is the National Statistics publication, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS). GERS is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s
public finances."
http://www.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf page 87.
So I'd suggest the above argument by @scottslass is pushing it a little by citing ancient political history.
I don't think many are questioning the ecocomic viability of an independent Scotland, it is more about the sacrifices necessary to secure that viability, and how far back the economy would fall. On both these points the Nationalists have been serially misleading, which us why their argued case keeps collapsing.
Giving the media more fishing to do isn't going to achieve anything except keep the story running a few more days - doesn't Seumas understand silly season?
People aren't rational actors. Purely economic arguments don't work, c.f. EUref.
Clinton 40 .. Trump 31
https://twitter.com/ppppolls
South Carolina - Feldman Group
Clinton 43 .. Trump 45
http://www.postandcourier.com/20160823/160829712/sc-democrats-tout-new-poll-showing-clinton-trump-in-dead-heat
It requires considerable mental contortions to have voted Leave AND want to deny the Scots Sindy II. I would hate to see them leave, and I think they'll have a much, much tougher time than we will, but if that's what they truly want? Godspeed Scotland.
Clinton 45.3 .. Trump 43.2
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
A brief-ish comment on the LD "revival". It is patchy at best and much of it is happening in areas of traditional strength as might be expected but there are unexpected pockets cropping up in previously "moribund" areas such as my part of East London where the LDs in Tower Hamlets and Newham are slowly building up from nothing.
All parties have moribund areas or rather oases of activity in moribund deserts. There is no "national" political party in the UK - we have a series of semi-regional groupings which overlap in places called "marginals".
On the EU, with Curly, Mo and Larry in charge of the process, I'm not hopeful. I agree we need to be out of the Single Market but I also think instead of a "Swiss model" or a "Norwegian model" we need to come up with a "British model".
We are dealing from a strong hand on this one - the EU will want to make sure they can still do business with us without making the prospect of secession from the club so attractive as to tempt others into thinking about withdrawal. That gives us plenty of room to get the kind of deal we want which is tailored to us and not to other prospective leavers.
Over the past 12 months the position has got worse, with Scotland paying in £400 less than the UK average. That still leaves Scotland was one of the strongest areas of the UK when it comes to tax revenue as the UK figures are heavily skewed by the London effect.
So with tax comfortably in the UK ballpark (if not ahead of it on a median basis) what's the problem?
The issue is spending. Whilst Scotland has in the past brought in more in tax it has spent far more than the rest of the UK. The net effect of these two figures gives us the higher Scottish deficit and the fiscal transfer from rUK to Scotland.
However that is nothing to apologise for and I for one wouldn't doff my cap to the UK for a rightful transfer of money back to Scotland (and many other areas of the UK) from London. Without the UK and the free and open market that goes along with it London would not be the powerhouse of tax revenue that it is right now, therefore by benefitting from the single UK market it's only right that London redistributes some of its wealth throughout the UK. That rightfully includes Scotland.
https://t.co/SIpUAEqeT0
He walked past empty seats. He declined other seats he was offered. He sat on the floor, made a PR film about not having a seat, then went and sat in a seat for the majority of the journey.
What a tool.
*assuming there is not yet more to come...
There's your election campaign, right there.
Edit not sure why my phone capitalised all that.
@jessicaelgot: The McNicol vs Unite vs GMB war is escalating https://t.co/ahBLZRIVWi
Our geography alone means that a UK-EU deal will be quite unique and not be a template for many of the other European countries. From the EU's perspective this should be of some reassurance against break-up as even if we wanted to be a breakaway leader, we're too separate (other than Ireland) to be one.
There is no problem in Britain that cannot be solved by nationalisation.
The opposite of the kippers who think that every problem in Britain can be solved by Brexit.
@MrHarryCole: Corbyn spokesman last night:
"That line about only wanting to sit with his wife is nonsense and not from us."
https://t.co/9ryjLiDDbC
No, me neither...
Still looking at Missouri and Georgia as states which Clinton might take - the Carolinas are interesting and Trump isn't done in Nevada quite yet. There seem to be some new "swing" states this time but most are former GOP states and lacking in the big EV numbers. Clinton seems to have a small but definite lead in OH.
If there is one commodity of which there can never be enough for a public always ravenous for linguistic originality, it is the suffix “-gate”. My dream is that one day Bill Gates will marry the Star Trek actress Gates McFadden – and that while honeymooning in Berlin, and fretting about being broke as we all do, she is arrested by Interpol after trying to flog the Brandenburg Gate to a credulous Chinese tourist. If anything could sate this appetite, it is Gates Gates’s Gate-gate.
Martin Belam
I’ve spoken to one member of the crew, who, perhaps understandably, was a little bit reluctant to go on the record. “You’ve seen what this train is like. It’s like this every day,” they said. The inference is clear. I really haven’t had any trouble finding a seat at all.
That is a huge part of the problem, in that I think she is far from unique in the medical profession.
Being in or out of the EU is nothing to do with our defence strategy which is as a member of NATO.
Your fantasies are very strange - mine certainly don't involve defence spending !!
Privatisation brings in robust reform of inefficient labour practices but then gets inefficient as supply chains lengthen, exec pay goes stratospheric and the high paid sales guys etc in fast cars reappear as something that was done by someone saying 'Do this' is replaced by a contract between split up companies.
Probably best to switch between nat and priv every 30-40 years.
Except of course your info is wrong. The following extract from Scotland Goes Pop, a pro indy but pretty good site, carries a poll of polls since the Euro Ref. It shows a marginal majority for independence. That might not be enough for Sturgeon to fire the starting pistol but remember Salmond fired it at 27 per cent!
"We've now had enough post-EU referendum polls on independence to make it worthwhile reintroducing the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls. I'm going to tweak the rules slightly, though. As before, the headline figures will be based on an average of the most recent poll from each polling firm, but only firms that have reported since the EU referendum (and thereafter within the last three months) will be included. If a firm has recently conducted both telephone and online polls, the midway point between those two polls' results will be used (in effect each of the two polls will count as a 'half-poll').
Today's figures are based on an online poll from Panelbase, an online poll from YouGov, and both an online and telephone poll from Survation. I'm excluding the ScotPulse poll showing an enormous Yes lead because I don't think it was an entirely credible poll (and ScotPulse aren't a BPC firm in any case).
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 50.8%
No 49.2% "
But even funnier...
Poor Labour Party. I'm starting to feel sorry for them now.
Jeeza my old mucka, leader of the opposition, it ain't like appearing on Jeopardy. I want a NHS question for $100, I want an NHS question for $500..
The Euro?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Presently "The Donald" has no path to 270. He has to turn around Pennsylvania and Florida and hope to cling on elsewhere. Lose either and even taking Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and all Romney and he still can't make 270. Not looking hopeful for Trumpsters.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/y1QPR
Like a British North Korea.
Its the ridicule that does for politicians. Ed Miliband got more blasting from lefty comics than Cameron (before pig-gate), because he was such an easy target.
If Blair had gone into business he'd have been very much like Branson IMHO.