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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big message from #Traingate: Virgin/Branson don’t think Corbyn’s got a remote chance of ever making it to Number 10
Ed Miliband fmr advisor Matt Lazo: "If Virgin thought Labour was going to win & took Labour seriously, they wouldn't have released this"
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I predict we'll be moving into the next phase fight back on this story, where Corbyn defenders start mocking how the story has no impact upon polling etc, even though almost no one will even have claimed it would, acting as though those mocking him thought this alone would topple him.
Though curiously, like the Isis remarks, it's one area I expect most Tories will feel Corbyn once again comes across as more sensible. Until any bad effects become much more incontestable and immediate, I don't know that among the wider remain backers there is any desire to push for EuroRef 2, this time get it right. And we know how leave supporters including labour ones will react.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37167253
Beautiful sunrise this morning ..
Clinton 45 .. Trump 33
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10Y28J
Meanwhile I can't find anywhere to sit down on this thread despite there being only a handful of comments so I'll move through to the next thread and probably end up sitting in the archives.
Jeremy Corbyn is to pledge cash for "patients not contractors" as he sets out plans to "renationalise" the NHS https://t.co/3VunPd1bYG
It proves (supporters will say) that Corbyn should remain authentic and banish the spinners who brought us such fiascos as the Edstone, Gordon Brown inviting Mrs Thatcher round for tea, and, well, this.
The first UK vote is obviously considered the "wrong answer" which then results in a second vote and then this vote reverses the original decision. Then what? Well then that second vote will be binding of course and no more votes required or ever given. Certain people will have considered we have given the "right answer" or as you put it "this time got it right".
To the majority the right decision has already been achieved but it was just not the answer the minority wanted.
As was pointed out recently by another poster Labour also introduced more private services within the NHS than the Tories ever did.
Even their NHS "safe space" is becoming an inconvenient truth.
Coming back to the UK today after a couple of weeks holiday. When I left it was all Brexit gloom and I'm coming back to sporting glory and arguing about train seats. Has 2016 finally calmed down while I've been away?
Politically it's a non starter, such an emotive and likely damaging fight to pick, but smith is free to claim to want it without too much harm. He can play the arch remainer card attempting to win among labour members, but by the time of any election article 50 will have been declared, so he can say ge would have stopped it but it is too late now, nasty Tories pushed it through,
"A French national who went on a knife rampage at a Queensland hostel late on Tuesday night screamed 'Allahu Akbar' before killing a British woman, 21, and critically wounding a man, 30, also from the UK, police said on Wednesday. The knifeman, 29, is being investigated over possible links to terrorism, and screamed the Muslim phrase again when police arrived to arrest him. A third man was also stabbed but did not suffer serious injuries"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3755684/Woman-dead-man-fighting-life-French-tourist-went-stabbing-rampage-Queensland-backpackers-hostel.html
The Greece example is a good reason there's no point having a vote on the negotiated terms. Even if it were stated this is the only deal we'd get, if it lost people would probably be just as angry at what we end up with, so it'd be a headache for the government they don't need. If someone doesn't like the deal they can campaign to scrap that too later.
The epidemic continues...
No facts required.
On Corbyn, I don't blame him for not taking reserved but vacant seats - long distance trains are often full of these and it can be very annoying - but in his position he would have been sensible not to risk a "Corbyn stole my seat" story getting legs if someone turned up and found him sitting there. So the issue is whether and why he marched past the alleged unreserved seats?
Dreadful headlines for Jezza, although Mike is right and it will make no difference to the vote. The Corbynista will just see it as neo-liberals and press ganging up on their man.
Still it bodes well for popcorn sales during the actual GE campaign in (2017/20). No doubt there'll be plenty more of these cackhanded stunts during the campaign. The whole thing has a ring of a student protest idea.
Smith is just making a play for the 48% knowing he doesn't have to deliver.
The corollary for the Internet is to watch what people say, not what they say that they say, if you follow me.
Let's crunch the figures.
1998 Hague, 1085 councillors, +254, 32%
2002 IDS, 2007, +238, 34%
2011, Miliband, 2459, +857, 38%
2016, Corbyn, 1326, -18, 31%.
And that's a worse performance than it looks(!) as about half the seats were in the major metropolitan areas - Manchester, West Yorkshire and Newcastle - where his message is meant to be strong.
It does however explain Labour members' firm, unshakeable conviction that Corbyn is going to lead them to victory. If net losses from a low base are more impressive than net gains from a high base, than Corbyn is set to be Labour's most successful leader since Arthur Henderson in 1931.
Having spent years in the public sector I do know that people who come from the private sector under the impression that 'common sense and some initiative' are all it needs usually crash and burn, or burnout. To get things done in a large complex organisation generally takes a certain wiliness and a huge reserve of persistence.
Germany may reintroduce a form of national service for civilians to help the army deal with a future disaster.
The role of civilians is part of a new civil defence strategy to be discussed by the government on Wednesday. Since the strategy was leaked to the media there has been intense debate about stockpiling food and water.
In a crisis civilians might be obliged to help direct traffic or provide fuel and accommodation for the military, German news agency DPA reported. Germans appeared generally unfazed by what some MPs have called government "scaremongering" but the word "Wehrpflicht" (conscription) was trending on social media on Tuesday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37164960
Corbyn vs Smith for the soul of the Labour party. A twenty-watt light bulb vs .... well, Pontypandy must be missing its village idiot. You could pick two labour MPs out at random and they'd be far more impressive, almost.
I accept you've got Ms Abbott, labour's anti-obesity spokesperson, but it would take some doing to find two worse candidates.
Why not put all the MPs into a raffle and just draw the next leader out of a hat?
This one could well run for some weeks.
As for BR closing Dover to Folkestone if that had happened in the 1980s. Bilge. In 1989 the Ness Viaduct collapsed severing the far north and Kyle lines. BR "just got on with it", rebulding the viaduct and bulding a temporary maintenance depot at Dingwall and shipping enough trains there by road to operate from Dingwall to Kyle and Thurso with a bus connection to Inverness until the viaduct was rebuilt.
Yes, BR tried somewhat half heartedly to close Settle and Carlisle. I was among the objectors - even though I worked for BR at the time - however at the time of the closure proposal they had a 70 mile route with two two car trains a day, one station without another nearby and an alternative route with capacity via Giggleswick.
What saved the Settle and Carlisle was Thatchers destruction of the coal mining industry with the result that the big Yorks and Notts Coal Power stations instead of getting their coal from nearby mines had to import it via Ayr meaning that suddenly the S&C was needed for a good number of block coal freight trains every day. Mind ypu, it didnt help the closure case when the BR manager in charge of closing it decided to "experimentally" reopen nine intermediate stations on the line.....
I'm actually a bit concerned for the long term future of the S&C now that the coal power stations are closing fast.
Passenger numbers seem healthy and it's also hauling quarry stone from Arcow and Dry Rigg. I think your fears are misplaced.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37167741
The Labour 1998 defence review was actually quite good, but it was never funded to implement it properly and ended up in the usual place of continued salami slicing.
Let's get one thing straight once and for all. Thatcher did not destroy the coal industry. Labour and Wilson closed twice as many mines in half the time taken by Thatcher. It is also said Thatcher destroyed industry however a quick check will show the decline was worst before and after her premiership.
It matters not its keeps getting said this is what happened just google it for 30 seconds and you will see for yourself.
I wouldn't expect a major political impact in Italy, unless their government badly mishandles the aftermath. However, prominent assistance from the UK might have some impact on the Brexit negotiations.
Corbyn, stupid, naïve, disorganised but honest. Except when he's not. Jeez...
At the time Hammond was transport secretary.
Judge Jan Luba QC was withering about Det Insp Rees, saying she appeared "glib, almost flippant", and he expressed his astonishment at her "loose and casual grasp of the law".
I know TV show coppers have a very low grasp of the law and are flippant about it because they're the heroes, damnit, they don't have time for rules or the law when it comes to catching bad guys (no matter they won't get convicted half the time), but a little worrying an Inspector in real life apparently cares not a jot about it either, for less cause.
Better to have booked seats, which may well have permitted some magnaminity to fellow passengers if indeed the train was overcrowded.
Train travel can be quite cheap if pre-booked, but very expensive for those disorganised enough to just turn up and go. A simplification of ticket prices is long overdue.
2015 was much better news. Both carriers going into service, Typhoon upgrades, commitment to the F-35, P-8 orders, Sentinel service extension, new Predator UAVs. In terms of equipment procurement decisions we haven't had such sensible choices for decades. A friend of mine who is quite involved with this was chuffed by the results.
I think we should spend more on defence, but at least we seem to be making better choices for the money we have.
Too humid and warm today. Boreas, where are you?
I just want the Labour contest to be over. Feels like it's been going on forever.
Yes, I agree, Labour contest has dragged and to little purpose as far as I can see from outside. The idea of annual leadership elections (author: Jezza) has been shown to be plainly bonkers. Can you imagine a party spending every summer undergoing all that hassle and expense?
The economics of that are in basket case territory - it would probably be cheaper to send everyone by taxi.
We had better hope the quarry traffic holds up....
Similarly if the SNP get their wish for independence and have to fund the lines north of Inverness and Northwest of Glasgow themselves (the ones up to 160 miles long with three two car sprinters a day), I wouldn't bet on them seeing out the Century.
A disproportionate amount of railway funding is on lines that are complete basket cases but were not closed in the beeching era for political reasons (labour marginals) and had far worse economics than lines elsewhere that carried far more passengers and made marginal losses but were closed as they were in safe tory constituencies. Good example being the Horsham to Brighton line which had an hourly service, lots of commuters and closed despite preliminary works on electrification starting and no attempt to reduce costs by destaffing stations, singling the line etc.
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/768196682538442752
Seems to have taken the heat off Corbyn and traingate
Mr. Root, watching two idiots have a slap fight can be amusing, but to a lesser extent when it's to be Leader of the Opposition.
Consider this: Ed Miliband towers above both contenders.
Ed "I was defeated by a sandwich" Miliband. Ed "my campaign approach was inspired by Amenhotep III" Miliband.
Personally its not an issue but then I'm happy to waste 30 minutes and catch the next train if the first one is full and I've not got a reserved seat..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-37171751
You might as well erect a statue to Blair. If he'd been against the euro, Brown would've pushed for entry.
As for Balls, a statue for him is not an absolutely bloody brilliant idea.
UK woman stabbed to death at Australian backpackers' hostel
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-37171751
They settled on an 8% cut, and with the huge £38bn black hole to fill as well that was enough to result in our capability being reduced by about a third.
Merkel won't support Renzi's plans for Italian banks, nor will she countenance relaxation of the Euro's fiscal rules to satisfy Hollande. The Germans just aren't minded to complete EMU. It's paralysing the EU, not just the Eurozone.
Far be it from me to add to the already voluminous knowledge of train travel displayed on here so I probably won't. I'm not convinced by aspects of the Virgin story - there do look to be a lot of Reserved seats in the clip I've seen though there are seats not reserved as well.
Corbyn wasn't travelling alone and presumably wanted somewhere they could all be together - not unreasonably. I don't think the whole affair has done either Corbyn or Branson any favours (I remember Branson famously refusing to endorse Blair on election night in 1997) and unfortunately it's obscured some much more interesting questions about transport in the UK in the 21st Century which are worth debate.
It would be nice to hear the Transport Secretary talking about how we are going to have a world-class integrated transport system instead of the usual Union bashing.
Owen Smith's comment about Brexit which is being spun fairly predictably by the usual suspects is actually worth considering. Those of us who voted LEAVE did so for a multitude of reasons and with a multitude of expectations and aspirations.
May clearly wants Brexit to fail as she's put the Three Stooges in charge of the process - Curly, Mo and Larry are having as much fun tearing lumps out of each other as in getting the job done and that's not helpful.
Simply leaving May and the Government to get on with it isn't helpful either - there needs to be proper informed debate and scrutiny and a much clearer and more widespread understanding of the consequences of certain actions and decisions.
We already have the Express and other LEAVE supporters jumping up and down saying there's nothing to worry about and the good times will be here forever now we've left the EU (which of course we haven't). Carney's financial methadone settled the markets but there's a cost and consequences to that and indeed the whole emphasis of policy since June 24th has been to kick the can containing the adverse effects down the road.
Though both candidates doing pretty long term damage.