Remain voters prefer Corbyn over May? So it's official then Remain voters are bonkers and have terrible judgement.
.
Remain are happy to blame anyone but themselves for losing.
Well and the fact that the EU is a big steaming pile of horsehit. I actually want to write a bit if a post mortem on the failures of the remain campaign as a warning for the government on how not to campaign for 2020.
We had a large number of articles on PB about how the LEAVE campaign was failing in the lead up to the actual vote. There were very few articles about REMAIN's failures. Odd that?
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
I agree with a lot of that. – Biggest upset I think was the million extra voters who voted for Leave, they appear to have been flying under the radar of every pollster and pundit for years.
Two in the Cyclefree household (not me) got the result right despite, in one case, voting Remain. They did so because they are the ones who have spent most time in the North West and where pretty much everyone they encountered (and we are talking about different generations and a range of classes here - not just the white WWC meme so beloved of some) was for Leave.
Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise.
True, but the absolute number of leavers was around 40-45% in London, and say 55% in the North West. But even these narrow majorities meant that London leavers and Provincial remainers tended to keep quiet. Which is interesting in itself.
Remain voters prefer Corbyn over May? So it's official then Remain voters are bonkers and have terrible judgement.
I know a few remain voters who pin the blame of losing in May. Her lack of support for the campaign and her refusal to publicly back the EU is seen as a key factor in their loss. Her speech about leaving the ECHR if we voted to stay was another inflammatory message to hardcore EUphiles.
Remain are happy to blame anyone but themselves for losing.
Well and the fact that the EU is a big steaming pile of horsehit. I actually want to write a bit if a post mortem on the failures of the remain campaign as a warning for the government on how not to campaign for 2020.
We had a large number of articles on PB about how the LEAVE campaign was failing in the lead up to the actual vote. There were very few articles about REMAIN's failures. Odd that?
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
GEs.
As soon as I saw the Turkey leaflet and the £350m/week shite, I ignored the Leave campaign. The £4,300, Little Englander and punishment budget gambits confirmed my contempt for Remain's efforts.
I have one anecdote; my future father-in-law switched from Remain to Leave based on Boris's contribution in the Wembley debate.
Yes, but then my mother was shifted from leave to remain due to the campaign, mainly Cameron and the risk stuff. Individuals will change their minds during a campaign, but it is hard to find an example of a campaign that has dramatically changed the position at the start? The AV referendum is possibly such an example, which we've passed over because there have been so few PB threads on it?
Apologies if I wasn't clear. One switch out of my entire range of family, friends and acquaintances hardly supports the idea of a devastatingly effective Leave campaign, so I was supporting your point.
Looking at the June 2015 polls, Remain led 55:45ish. I still maintain it was the 2015 net migration figures at the end of February that did it. My Mum even rang me up to ask me about them. It was a genuine shock, even though the previous years numbers were also dire.
Remain voters prefer Corbyn over May? So it's official then Remain voters are bonkers and have terrible judgement.
I know a few remain voters who pin the blame of losing in May. Her lack of support for the campaign and her refusal to publicly back the EU is seen as a key factor in their loss. Her speech about leaving the ECHR if we voted to stay was another inflammatory message to hardcore EUphiles.
Remain are happy to blame anyone but themselves for losing.
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
As soon as I saw the Turkey leaflet and the £350m/week shite, I ignored the Leave campaign. The £4,300, Little Englander and punishment budget gambits confirmed my contempt for Remain's efforts.
I have one anecdote; my future father-in-law switched from Remain to Leave based on Boris's contribution in the Wembley debate.
Yes, but then my mother was shifted from leave to remain due to the campaign, mainly Cameron and the risk stuff. Individuals will change their minds during a campaign, but it is hard to find an example of a campaign that has dramatically changed the position at the start? The AV referendum is possibly such an example, which we've passed over because there have been so few PB threads on it?
I do believe the poster of a little Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond's top pocket shifted sentiment during the 2015 GE campaign. That really hurt Labour.
''Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise. ''
That why the pre-Brexit pieces by the Guardian's John Harris were so good. He actually bothered to leave his desk and ask factory workers in Stoke. And when they said 'leave' he did not patronise them or call them racist, but was genuinely interested in why. And when he got the reply, he did not dismiss it out of hand.
It's called journalism.
Yep. The pro-remain media narrative was all coming from the London intelligencia.
John Harris's piece convinced me to pile on Leave at fantastic odds in the week before the referendum. I owe him a beer or 20 if we should ever meet!
Remain voters prefer Corbyn over May? So it's official then Remain voters are bonkers and have terrible judgement.
I know a few remain voters who pin the blame of losing in May. Her lack of support for the campaign and her refusal to publicly back the EU is seen as a key factor in their loss. Her speech about leaving the ECHR if we voted to stay was another inflammatory message to hardcore EUphiles.
Remain are happy to blame anyone but themselves for losing.
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
As soon as I saw the Turkey leaflet and the £350m/week shite, I ignored the Leave campaign. The £4,300, Little Englander and punishment budget gambits confirmed my contempt for Remain's efforts.
I have one anecdote; my future father-in-law switched from Remain to Leave based on Boris's contribution in the Wembley debate.
Yes, but then my mother was shifted from leave to remain due to the campaign, mainly Cameron and the risk stuff. Individuals will change their minds during a campaign, but it is hard to find an example of a campaign that has dramatically changed the position at the start? The AV referendum is possibly such an example, which we've passed over because there have been so few PB threads on it?
I do believe the poster of a little Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond's top pocket shifted sentiment during the 2015 GE campaign. That really hurt Labour.
I agree, despite your changing all the quotes in your post such that none of those attributed to me were mine!
We had a large number of articles on PB about how the LEAVE campaign was failing in the lead up to the actual vote. There were very few articles about REMAIN's failures. Odd that?
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
I agree with a lot of that. – Biggest upset I think was the million extra voters who voted for Leave, they appear to have been flying under the radar of every pollster and pundit for years.
Two in the Cyclefree household (not me) got the result right despite, in one case, voting Remain. They did so because they are the ones who have spent most time in the North West and where pretty much everyone they encountered (and we are talking about different generations and a range of classes here - not just the white WWC meme so beloved of some) was for Leave.
Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise.
True, but the absolute number of leavers was around 40-45% in London, and say 55% in the North West. But even these narrow majorities meant that London leavers and Provincial remainers tended to keep quiet. Which is interesting in itself.
It was not just the numbers but the determination to get out and vote which struck my daughter.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of the Leavers in London. London overall may have voted Remain but the fact that there was a significant Leave vote in those areas of the country where one might not have expected it is also interesting.
Most people expected the vote to be close. A result in the MoE meant that a narrow Remain prediction was just as accurate as a narrow Leave one.
Many of those that expected the vote to be close were illogically confidant that Remain would win, however. Many on this site did well out of the arbitrage between those those two predictions.
Nick is trying to get selected for a seat. Keep that in mind. Hopefully the voters reject him again.
An unchracheristically churlish comment, given that I've said here about 20 times that I'm not trying to get selected to stand for Parliament again.
Your support for Corbyn has put me right off. His and his supporters attitudes towards women and Jewish people are disgraceful. I don't understand how or why you would support such a man.
Jezza has a lot of bad points but...
He was elected Labour leader with a huge mandate less than twelve months ago. How the PLP have behaved in recent weeks has been disgracefully undemocratic... Both to Jez and their reaction to Brexit.
Brexit couldn't have happened without Jezza and Owen Who is trying to become leader on a platform is effectively ignoring or reversing the referendum.
That would be a valid argument if Jezza had campaigned for Leave. Unfortunately he was supposed to be campaigning for Remain and had announced that he was doing so (against the voting intentions of many Labour voters). ThenI believe Remain lost the referendum and the PLP decided that as Jezza wasn't working in Parliament and wasn't working with the public as a whole he needed to be removed.
Remain voters prefer Corbyn over May? So it's official then Remain voters are bonkers and have terrible judgement.
I know a few remain voters who pin the blame of losing in May. Her lack of support for the campaign and her refusal to publicly back the EU is seen as a key factor in their loss. Her speech about leaving the ECHR if we voted to stay was another inflammatory message to hardcore EUphiles.
Remain are happy to blame anyone but themselves for losing.
Well and the fact that the EU is a big steaming pile of horsehit. I actually want to write a bit if a post mortem on the failures of the remain campaign as a warning for the government on how not to campaign for 2020.
We had a large number of articles on PB about how the LEAVE campaign was failing in the lead up to the actual vote. There were very few articles about REMAIN's failures. Odd that?
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
I agree with a lot of that. – Biggest upset I think was the million extra voters who voted for Leave, they appear to have been flying under the radar of every pollster and pundit for years.
.... Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise.
I agree. But it is also who you mix with outside London. Messrs Nabavi and Meeks seem too close to southern metro folk. TSE seemed to have tuned out any northern working class views that he should have encountered.
It was the mood on the ground in the southern working class areas that convinced me this was going to be close and I went for 53.65% in the PB comp.
Nick is trying to get selected for a seat. Keep that in mind. Hopefully the voters reject him again.
An unchracheristically churlish comment, given that I've said here about 20 times that I'm not trying to get selected to stand for Parliament again.
Your support for Corbyn has put me right off. His and his supporters attitudes towards women and Jewish people are disgraceful. I don't understand how or why you would support such a man.
Jezza has a lot of bad points but...
He was elected Labour leader with a huge mandate less than twelve months ago. How the PLP have behaved in recent weeks has been disgracefully undemocratic... Both to Jez and their reaction to Brexit.
Brexit couldn't have happened without Jezza and Owen Who is trying to become leader on a platform is effectively ignoring or reversing the referendum.
That would be a valid argument if Jezza had campaigned for Leave. Unfortunately he was supposedly voting for Remain (against the voting intentions of many Labour voters) and I believe Remain lost the referendum....
He did campaign for REMAIN but only reluctantly because he has been for LEAVE for 40 years.
REMAIN/PLP was lucky he did as much as he did for REMAIN quite honestly and when he said he was 7/10 for the EU I think he was speaking for the majority of people (actually most people would have put it as 5 or under)
Anyway, I'm sure his stance encouraged LAB LEAVE voters that it would be OK to vote leave if they wanted so I'll always believe Brexit couldn't have happened without him.
We had a large number of articles on PB about how the LEAVE campaign was failing in the lead up to the actual vote. There were very few articles about REMAIN's failures. Odd that?
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crapEs.
I agree with a lot of that. – Biggest upset I think was the million extra voters who voted for Leave, they appear to have been flying under the radar of every pollster and pundit for years.
Two in the Cyclefree household (not me) got the result right despite, in one case, voting Remain. They did so because they are the ones who have spent most time in the North West and where pretty much everyone they encountered (and we are talking about different generations and a range of classes here - not just the white WWC meme so beloved of some) was for Leave.
Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise.
True, but the absolute number of leavers was around 40-45% in London, and say 55% in the North West. But even these narrow majorities meant that London leavers and Provincial remainers tended to keep quiet. Which is interesting in itself.
It was not just the numbers but the determination to get out and vote which struck my daughter.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of the Leavers in London. London overall may have voted Remain but the fact that there was a significant Leave vote in those areas of the country where one might not have expected it is also interesting.
Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.
Nick is trying to get selected for a seat. Keep that in mind. Hopefully the voters reject him again.
An unchracheristically churlish comment, given that I've said here about 20 times that I'm not trying to get selected to stand for Parliament again.
Your support for Corbyn has put me right off. His and his supporters attitudes towards women and Jewish people are disgraceful. I don't understand how or why you would support such a man.
Jezza has a lot of bad points but...
He was elected Labour leader with a huge mandate less than twelve months ago. How the PLP have behaved in recent weeks has been disgracefully undemocratic... Both to Jez and their reaction to Brexit.
Brexit couldn't have happened without Jezza and Owen Who is trying to become leader on a platform is effectively ignoring or reversing the referendum.
That would be a valid argument if Jezza had campaigned for Leave. Unfortunately he was supposedly voting for Remain (against the voting intentions of many Labour voters) and I believe Remain lost the referendum....
He did campaign for REMAIN but only reluctantly because he has been for LEAVE for 40 years.
REMAIN/PLP was lucky he did as much as he did for REMAIN quite honestly and when he said he was 7/10 for the EU I think he was speaking for the majority of people (actually most people would have put it as 5 or under)
Anyway, I'm sure his stance encouraged LAB LEAVE voters that it would be OK to vote leave if they wanted so I'll always believe Brexit couldn't have happened without him.
Trouble is that politicians get pummelled if they cannot be 100% one way or the other. The luxury of indecision is for us plebs.
Of course political campaigners love to big up their contribution, and after a major campaign there is always lots of analysis as to how the winning campaign pulled off their victory. Right down to the minutiae of particular slogans or speeches, or whether red was the better colour for leave etc etc.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
Biggest upset I think was the million extra voters who voted for Leave, they appear to have been flying under the radar of every pollster and pundit for years.
.... Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise.
I agree. But it is also who you mix with outside London. Messrs Nabavi and Meeks seem too close to southern metro folk. TSE seemed to have tuned out any northern working class views that he should have encountered.
It was the mood on the ground in the southern working class areas that convinced me this was going to be close and I went for 53.65% in the PB comp.
It's a human tendency to pay attention to those we agree with and to believe what we want to be true. Opinions first; facts second.
But I would also say that the differences between those who voted Remain (like Messrs Nabavi and Meeks) and those who voted Leave were not quite as great as people assume. Neither of them had any great love for the EU but placed more importance on other factors. Whereas others equally did not like the EU but either discounted the factors which mattered to the Nabavi/Meeks faction or placed slightly more importance on other factors.
In short, if you did a Venn diagram I suspect that you would see quite a large overlap in the circle marked "Things I dislike about the EU".
Why people who perhaps largely agreed on the EU not being great jumped for Remain or Leave had as much to do with temperament, approach to risk etc as any actual arguments or facts.
It's a human tendency to pay attention to those we agree with and to believe what we want to be true. Opinions first; facts second.
But I would also say that the differences between those who voted Remain (like Messrs Nabavi and Meeks) and those who voted Leave were not quite as great as people assume. Neither of them had any great love for the EU but placed more importance on other factors. Whereas others equally did not like the EU but either discounted the factors which mattered to the Nabavi/Meeks faction or placed slightly more importance on other factors.
In short, if you did a Venn diagram I suspect that you would see quite a large overlap in the circle marked "Things I dislike about the EU".
Why people who perhaps largely agreed on the EU not being great jumped for Remain or Leave had as much to do with temperament, approach to risk etc as any actual arguments or facts.
Richard I'll accept, but Alastair has mutated into a weird europhile who, in 20 years, would call anyone who refused to get on board with the eventual super state a bigoted little Englander.
But all the anecdotal evidence we had during the campaign was that the leave effort was disorganised, divided and chaotic. I don't think the result should change our judgement on that. Both campaigns were crap. With hindsight we know that the leading pollsters were adjusting their figures in ways that weren't, given the way voters actually turned out, appropriate and that leave probably were ahead from beginning to end. The campaign appears to have made little difference - as tends to be the case during most GEs.
Biggest upset I think was the million extra voters who voted for Leave, they appear to have been flying under the radar of every pollster and pundit for years.
.... Sometimes just spending time away from London is enough to give you a different perspective. Not done anything like often enough by those who make the most noise.
I agree. But it is also who you mix with outside London. Messrs Nabavi and Meeks seem too close to southern metro folk. TSE seemed to have tuned out any northern working class views that he should have encountered.
It was the mood on the ground in the southern working class areas that convinced me this was going to be close and I went for 53.65% in the PB comp.
It's a human tendency to pay attention to those we agree with and to believe what we want to be true. Opinions first; facts second.
But I would also say that the differences between those who voted Remain (like Messrs Nabavi and Meeks) and those who voted Leave were not quite as great as people assume. Neither of them had any great love for the EU but placed more importance on other factors. Whereas others equally did not like the EU but either discounted the factors which mattered to the Nabavi/Meeks faction or placed slightly more importance on other factors.
In short, if you did a Venn diagram I suspect that you would see quite a large overlap in the circle marked "Things I dislike about the EU".
Why people who perhaps largely agreed on the EU not being great jumped for Remain or Leave had as much to do with temperament, approach to risk etc as any actual arguments or facts.
Or in Sean T's case purely upon which way he happened to be leaning at the precise moment he walked into the polling station!
It's a human tendency to pay attention to those we agree with and to believe what we want to be true. Opinions first; facts second.
But I would also say that the differences between those who voted Remain (like Messrs Nabavi and Meeks) and those who voted Leave were not quite as great as people assume. Neither of them had any great love for the EU but placed more importance on other factors. Whereas others equally did not like the EU but either discounted the factors which mattered to the Nabavi/Meeks faction or placed slightly more importance on other factors.
In short, if you did a Venn diagram I suspect that you would see quite a large overlap in the circle marked "Things I dislike about the EU".
Why people who perhaps largely agreed on the EU not being great jumped for Remain or Leave had as much to do with temperament, approach to risk etc as any actual arguments or facts.
Richard I'll accept, but Alastair has mutated into a weird europhile who, in 20 years, would call anyone who refused to get on board with the eventual super state a bigoted little Englander.
If we have weird Europhiles I presume we have the equivalent Anglophiles, or is that heretical.
Comments
Looking at the June 2015 polls, Remain led 55:45ish. I still maintain it was the 2015 net migration figures at the end of February that did it. My Mum even rang me up to ask me about them. It was a genuine shock, even though the previous years numbers were also dire.
John Harris's piece convinced me to pile on Leave at fantastic odds in the week before the referendum. I owe him a beer or 20 if we should ever meet!
It would be interesting to see an analysis of the Leavers in London. London overall may have voted Remain but the fact that there was a significant Leave vote in those areas of the country where one might not have expected it is also interesting.
Many of those that expected the vote to be close were illogically confidant that Remain would win, however. Many on this site did well out of the arbitrage between those those two predictions.
It was the mood on the ground in the southern working class areas that convinced me this was going to be close and I went for 53.65% in the PB comp.
REMAIN/PLP was lucky he did as much as he did for REMAIN quite honestly and when he said he was 7/10 for the EU I think he was speaking for the majority of people (actually most people would have put it as 5 or under)
Anyway, I'm sure his stance encouraged LAB LEAVE voters that it would be OK to vote leave if they wanted so I'll always believe Brexit couldn't have happened without him.
Nevertheless, if your family reported nearly everyone they met in the NW being leave, then either they weren't in fact meeting a representative cross-section, or people weren't being entirely straight.
But I would also say that the differences between those who voted Remain (like Messrs Nabavi and Meeks) and those who voted Leave were not quite as great as people assume. Neither of them had any great love for the EU but placed more importance on other factors. Whereas others equally did not like the EU but either discounted the factors which mattered to the Nabavi/Meeks faction or placed slightly more importance on other factors.
In short, if you did a Venn diagram I suspect that you would see quite a large overlap in the circle marked "Things I dislike about the EU".
Why people who perhaps largely agreed on the EU not being great jumped for Remain or Leave had as much to do with temperament, approach to risk etc as any actual arguments or facts.
I guess I am a Revolutionary Moderniser, which comes as something of a surprise to me, as I always think of myself as Burkean.
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