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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the PB/YouGov Favourability Ratings – a new dev

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    IanB2 said:

    Your MP is a person (who half the respondents will have voted for) whereas MPs generally are a bunch of useless crooks.
    There’s a similar situation with regard to GP services.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    On a serious note (again) in History the exams are getting easier, not harder. Much more focus on blind sources (which is pointless) and much less on reasoned analysis backed by hard evidence.

    Of course the poor quality of some of the marking means that's likely to be irrelevant, but it shows how regardless of the intentions the outcome is sometimes highly undesirable or even the opposite of what was intended.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    malcolmg said:

    That is down to the EBC and teh biased media, they have been winning plenty of medals and Scotland would be around 11th or 12th in table on its own. Team GB is a fake.
    When you complain about "biased media" you sound like a deranged Trump fan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    edited August 2016
    malcolmg said:

    That is down to the EBC and teh biased media, they have been winning plenty of medals and Scotland would be around 11th or 12th in table on its own. Team GB is a fake.
    Eh? Because it represents the entirety of the nation rather than the constituent cou tries competing individually a la the commonwealth games? That's like that idiotic argument Dair used to push that the uk is fake because is was artificially created like, I don't know, every single national political entity ever since we're all human beings and there's no need for any such distinction, so if you go back far enough all divisions are artificial.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    IanB2 said:

    Surely the rise in passengers is driven by commuting, with cities (esp London) becoming unaffordable to live within and more expensive and impractical to drive into?

    That's part of the story, but only part. It's interesting to see maps which show how passenger usage has increased on each station and line - it's not just obvious commuter lines.

    Saying that *all* the increase is due to privatisation is as silly as saying that privatisation has had no effect and all the growth has been caused by other factors. But what I can say from having studied this a little is that the private companies are far more responsive to passengers' needs, and that the growing network we see today was incompatible with the mindset of most of BR's managers.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's a good move to include such a thing, and tracking changes will be interesting.

    In somewhat related news, the weak-kneed naivety of many MPs continues to disappoint:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37091464

    Apparently we must unilaterally guarantee EU citizens currently in the UK lots of rights, despite no reciprocal arrangement in place for British citizens in the EU. May got stick for her stance, which is entirely correct, so this is an early opportunity to see whether she's got backbone to back up (in this instance) sound judgement.

    Why do I suspect Theresa May or someone very close to her has had a hand in this appointment - give all Vote Leave leaders the awkward consequences to deal with....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    A very long, sprawling, partly inconclusive, but rather impressive article attempting to analyse the entirety of world political developments, from Trump to Brexit to ISIS to Merkel to lots more, with an important central theme of the phenomenon of illiberal democrats:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/08/the_week_democracy_died_how_brexit_nice_turkey_and_trump_are_all_connected.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Hmm. I wonder if the Roman Empire or Genghis Khan's [or his son's, to go larger] would have more medals. Khan would have China and Russia, but Rome would have a plethora of European countries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    A very long, sprawling, partly inconclusive, but rather impressive article attempting to analyse the entirety of world political developments, from Trump to Brexit to ISIS to Merkel to lots more, with an important central theme of the phenomenon of illiberal democrats:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/08/the_week_democracy_died_how_brexit_nice_turkey_and_trump_are_all_connected.html

    Sadly I must dash, but given the url 'how democracy died' followed by Brexit, I'll bet it will go down like a lead balloon.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    ydoethur said:

    On a serious note (again) in History the exams are getting easier, not harder. Much more focus on blind sources (which is pointless) and much less on reasoned analysis backed by hard evidence.

    Of course the poor quality of some of the marking means that's likely to be irrelevant, but it shows how regardless of the intentions the outcome is sometimes highly undesirable or even the opposite of what was intended.

    Thankfully neither of my twins are doing history in Year 10 (they have both now switched to Geography)... Given that they are the full guinea pigs for the new style GCSE's I'm glad that they only thing we have to worry about is the field research paper worth between 10-20% as no one knows yet..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331
    ydoethur said:

    On a serious note (again) in History the exams are getting easier, not harder. Much more focus on blind sources (which is pointless) and much less on reasoned analysis backed by hard evidence.

    Of course the poor quality of some of the marking means that's likely to be irrelevant, but it shows how regardless of the intentions the outcome is sometimes highly undesirable or even the opposite of what was intended.

    What's the point of a blind source? In order to evaluate source material, you need to know who the author was, what their biases were, who contradicts them etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Sean_F said:

    What's the point of a blind source? In order to evaluate source material, you need to know who the author was, what their biases were, who contradicts them etc.
    Don't ask me, I don't know, and I've only been a professional historian including an author and editor for 10 years before going into teaching.

    I think the idea is to show how they can analyse sources they haven't seen before. But it's a daft way of doing it because no historian will work on a source they've seen only once and can't do further research to check its content if needed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited August 2016
    Interesting that both the incumbent U.S. president, a Democrat and the incumbent UK P.M., a Tory, both have the highest favourability ratings. Also interesting that while Remainers like Obama, Merkel and Clinton best and put UKIP and Trump bottom, Leavers put May, Johnson, Obama and UKIP top and MPs and the SNP bottom (both behind Trump)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. F/Mr. Doethur, ... what?

    They're reducing things like reasoning, evidence and sound sources to focus on the anonymous? How the hell is that supposed to make sense?

    FFS.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    eek said:

    Thankfully neither of my twins are doing history in Year 10 (they have both now switched to Geography)... Given that they are the full guinea pigs for the new style GCSE's I'm glad that they only thing we have to worry about is the field research paper worth between 10-20% as no one knows yet..
    Don't be so sure there will be no problems In Geography. The residential field course may still cause problems and if you have two doing it, is going to be expensive for you.

    That said, it is much closer to the old GCSE than the History equivalent so there is likely to be less experimentation.
  • ydoethur said:

    On a serious note (again) in History the exams are getting easier, not harder. Much more focus on blind sources (which is pointless) and much less on reasoned analysis backed by hard evidence.

    Of course the poor quality of some of the marking means that's likely to be irrelevant, but it shows how regardless of the intentions the outcome is sometimes highly undesirable or even the opposite of what was intended.

    Blind sources ?

    You might as well do history lessons about Hannibal based on Mr Dancer's deranged witterings.

    The Battle of Zama was a great success for Carthage

    :lol:
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    Alistair said:

    That's nothing do with Labour. The system of competing exam boards in England who explicitly advertise that if you go with them your school will get more A's sees to that.
    The only people who could fix that would be Universities to announce that a B in AQA history is the equivalent of an A from EDEXCEL.

    Unfortunately universities are incentivised not to push this point as they can take as many people as they can with 3Bs or above...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. Eagles, when Hannibal lost a battle to Scipio it was because he was forced to defend his home city [which was a place not noted for common sense, unlike Rome], whilst facing veteran forces under a great command, himself equipped with mostly fresh troops of dubious quality.

    When Caesar lost to Pompey at Dyrrachium, he chose to attack with veteran forces and managed to be defeated by newly raised troops.

    Also worth noting that, after the respective wars ended, Hannibal became ruler of Carthage. Caesar got murdered by his own side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Mr. F/Mr. Doethur, ... what?

    They're reducing things like reasoning, evidence and sound sources to focus on the anonymous? How the hell is that supposed to make sense?

    FFS.

    It was devised by the DFES, Mr Dancer. That I think on its own answers your question.

    But seriously, on the old A-level such questions accounted for about 8% of the overall mark, which was OK. Now they account for approximately 30% of the mark, which is absurd.

    What I found really offensive was that the boards and the DfES blamed the university history departments for it, saying this greater emphasis was what they wanted - despite the fact that two academic advisers, one a personal friend and one a friend of a friend, had resigned from the panel in protest at them being included at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    This from Anthony Wells on Labour and polls is long but worth a scan http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9749
  • Mr. Eagles, when Hannibal lost a battle to Scipio it was because he was forced to defend his home city [which was a place not noted for common sense, unlike Rome], whilst facing veteran forces under a great command, himself equipped with mostly fresh troops of dubious quality.

    When Caesar lost to Pompey at Dyrrachium, he chose to attack with veteran forces and managed to be defeated by newly raised troops.

    Also worth noting that, after the respective wars ended, Hannibal became ruler of Carthage. Caesar got murdered by his own side.

    Caesar become a byword for Kings.

    Hannibal less so.

    Because Caesar won the war, loser Hannibal lost the war.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    edited August 2016
    ydoethur said:

    Don't be so sure there will be no problems In Geography. The residential field course may still cause problems and if you have two doing it, is going to be expensive for you.

    That said, it is much closer to the old GCSE than the History equivalent so there is likely to be less experimentation.
    I'm not expecting it to be problem free but at least I personally know their Geography teacher (she basically wrote half the appeal statement that got them into the school). Also I don't think its residential courses for us we have enough suitable places within an hour or so's drive (Dales, Moors, Lakes)....

    The concern at the school is how do you compare the very different approaches schools will take to this field work exam - it used to be that schools in less fortunate parts of the country could avoid that bit...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited August 2016
    IanB2 said:

    It was always assumed that ScotIndy would be a disaster for Labour. But now, with the prospect of few Scottish seats for a generation at least, maybe Labour would be better off without the millstone of ever-prospective independence around its neck, by actually letting Scotland go? In E&W the Tories would lose their main card, and in Scotland the SNP its purpose.
    It is easier for Labour to win power via a deal with the SNP than via a majority in England and Wales especially with Corbyn as leader. The SNP could be a Scottish Fianna Fail if Scotland went independent
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331

    Mr. F/Mr. Doethur, ... what?

    They're reducing things like reasoning, evidence and sound sources to focus on the anonymous? How the hell is that supposed to make sense?

    FFS.

    If one included Procopius' account of the early life of Theodora on the GCSE curriculum, without naming the author, generations of schoolchildren might get quite misleading ideas.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943

    That's part of the story, but only part. It's interesting to see maps which show how passenger usage has increased on each station and line - it's not just obvious commuter lines.

    Saying that *all* the increase is due to privatisation is as silly as saying that privatisation has had no effect and all the growth has been caused by other factors. But what I can say from having studied this a little is that the private companies are far more responsive to passengers' needs, and that the growing network we see today was incompatible with the mindset of most of BR's managers.
    Sadly it isn't the network that is growing, but rather the number of people using the network we have (or were left with by Beeching).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. F, one suspects including Procopius would have people shrieking for their safe spaces :p
  • The joys of going from Bedfordshire to Heathrow at 70mph uninterrupted on the M1 and M25 with the message signs saying things like Junction 16 M40 8 miles 8 minutes...

    Alas you need to be travelling no later than approx 5am to see this - and it is still busy then.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,014
    IanB2 said:

    This from Anthony Wells on Labour and polls is long but worth a scan http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9749

    "At the 2016 locals the R&T projection was CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 12%; a one point lead for Labour. Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters have presented this as a sign of Labour doing well, on the grounds they beat the Conservatives. The TSSA have presented it as positive because it is a four point swing from the R&T projection of support at the local elections in 2015.
    These claims are flawed. Looking at historical comparisons, Labour’s performance in the 2016 local elections was pretty mediocre compared to previous oppositions."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    eek said:

    I'm not expecting it to be problem free but at least I personally know their Geography teacher (she basically wrote half the appeal statement that got them into the school). Also I don't think its residential courses for us we have enough suitable places within an hour or so's drive (Dales, Moors, Lakes)....

    The concern at the school is how do you compare the very different approaches schools will take to this field work exam - it used to be that schools in less fortunate parts of the country could avoid that bit...

    They're not the only ones. I have had many conversations about this with the Head of Geography about how he will be doing it, and we're still guessing a bit.

    One school in Lichfield is making it a compulsory residential. Just to confuse matter, that's a compulsory residential in Iceland studying volcanoes. That's why I was alarmed for the expense you might have to meet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    ydoethur said:

    On a serious note (again) in History the exams are getting easier, not harder. Much more focus on blind sources (which is pointless) and much less on reasoned analysis backed by hard evidence.

    Of course the poor quality of some of the marking means that's likely to be irrelevant, but it shows how regardless of the intentions the outcome is sometimes highly undesirable or even the opposite of what was intended.

    That seems like a mad idea. Surely knowing the source of information is extremely important to its historical context?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943

    That shouldn't be possible because the various sites all use the same ticketing database.
    Well I checked National Rail again just now, and the prices are now down to the same level as trainline. But they were not, yesterday, otherwise I wouldn't have gone near trainline in the first place; how do they hope to make money when they add a booking fee on top and charge more for postage than the other sites?

    If you are right I guess the only explanation is a mysterious and dramatic price drop during the few minutes between sites?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The joys of going from Bedfordshire to Heathrow at 70mph uninterrupted on the M1 and M25 with the message signs saying things like Junction 16 M40 8 miles 8 minutes...

    Alas you need to be travelling no later than approx 5am to see this - and it is still busy then.

    Now just imagine the hub was at Gatwick and you had to go all the way down to Surrey!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited August 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Well I checked National Rail again just now, and the prices are now down to the same level as trainline. But they were not, yesterday, otherwise I wouldn't have gone near trainline in the first place; how do they hope to make money when they add a booking fee on top and charge more for postage than the other sites?

    If you are right I guess the only explanation is a mysterious and dramatic price drop during the few minutes between sites?
    The price could have been cached. Or there could indeed have been the price drop. Train ticket prices are as complicated as airline prices.
  • Obama net +46% ??????
    Does not compute!
    WTF is going on with the British public? Did education standards drop or something? This is the hardest evidence I have ever seen for the triumph of image management over content.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    edited August 2016
    I think people are getting a bit confused by the words I'm using. A 'blind source' in this context means one they haven't seen before (this is the phrase the exam board uses). They are told who wrote it. However, the question is then about the source, not about the information in it.

    Furthermore, the exam boards have dramatically reduced the amount of contextual information they provide on their sources, including removing further information on the authors. Which is not terribly helpful given it is sometimes hard to work out their leanings from the tiny, often edited extract provided.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,500
    Patrick said:

    Obama net +46% ??????
    Does not compute!
    WTF is going on with the British public? Did education standards drop or something? This is the hardest evidence I have ever seen for the triumph of image management over content.

    Some Leavers were probably favourable to him because they think he did them a favour!
  • Looks like we might as well go all prepper and just eat home grown food after all (see debate the other day)

    Bananas to be wiped out in 5 years according to Dacre:

    http://dailym.ai/2aYE9on
  • tlg86 said:

    Some Leavers were probably favourable to him because they think he did them a favour!
    He's the shittiest president of modern times by a country mile. I really don't get it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Patrick said:

    Obama net +46% ??????
    Does not compute!
    WTF is going on with the British public? Did education standards drop or something? This is the hardest evidence I have ever seen for the triumph of image management over content.

    Think of it this way Patrick. US domestic policy doesn't directly affect us, while foreign policy ventures do. Under Bush, the effects were disastrous and extensive, so Obama's policy of drift has been an improvement for us if hardly for the people of Africa, Arabia and the Caucasus.

    Meanwhile few know or care about the failures of his domestic policy, so that doesn't impact on their view of him. Coupled to a genuine rhetorical talent that matches Bill Clinton and an ability so far as we know to keep his hands off young women, it's not surprising that those who know of him only superficially view him very positively.

    He will also do well compared to his successor. Clinton has all his drawbacks and none of his talents, and as for Trump...
  • Patrick said:

    He's the shittiest president of modern times by a country mile. I really don't get it.
    Have you seen the two that will be chosen from to replace him?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    The New YouGov poll looks great. However, as a cynic who doubts most respondents have a significant awareness of their own domestic politicians, let alone foreign leaders, I’ll take the Merkel, Putin, Trump etc figures, with a large pinch of salt.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. Doethur, that's like asking someone to read Livy's Early History of Rome, then asking them about the paper quality and font size.

    Well. Maybe not quite that bad. But it's still rubbish.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394

    Looks like we might as well go all prepper and just eat home grown food after all (see debate the other day)

    Bananas to be wiped out in 5 years according to Dacre:

    http://dailym.ai/2aYE9on

    During that period they will of a Dacre-apporved shape, though!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Have you seen the two that will be chosen from to replace him?
    Obama will feel like a colossus of the ages by the end of 2017!
  • MaxPB said:

    Now just imagine the hub was at Gatwick and you had to go all the way down to Surrey!
    Tbat would be great. Walk to station, get on Thameslink, get off at Gatwick airport.

    Oh for the days when Nationwide Airlines flew from Joburg to Gatwick.

    Gatwick is just so much more accesible by public transport.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Mr. Doethur, that's like asking someone to read Livy's Early History of Rome, then asking them about the paper quality and font size.

    Well. Maybe not quite that bad. But it's still rubbish.

    Mr Dancer, you are preaching to the converted. But there's not a lot I can do about it. If they won't listen to the senior professors they recruited to the advisory committee and then lie about their stance, what chance have I got?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    IanB2 said:

    Sadly it isn't the network that is growing, but rather the number of people using the network we have (or were left with by Beeching).
    True, there has been relatively little growth in the physical network. But it has been growing, unlike in BR times when it was constantly shrinking.

    I was referring (though misusing the terms) to both the increase in 'routes' and the number of services on those routes.

    It looks as though a significant proportion of the growth in passengers occurs when more services are laid on a route. This may be due to a decrease in overcrowding attracting passengers or, more likely, that you are more likely to use the train if there is a service every half-hour instead of every hour, meaning that you wait less for a train and are more likely to catch a connection. Or even one every fifteen minutes instead of half-hour.

    The quality of many stations has also improved immeasurably since privatisation. Just look at photos of stations in the 1970s and 1980s and them now. This perhaps started with Liverpool Street's renovation in the 1980s. (*)

    I only travelled on BR in the last decade of its existence, but I have little doubt that the current railway is much better for passenger comfort and convenience. As an example: Pacer trains are widely derided, but when they were introduced in the 1980s they were seen as being better than the first-generation DMUs they replaced.

    (*) When the adjacent Broad Street station was sadly closed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. Doethur, quite. Must be very frustrating.

    Mr. Max, the Colossus of Rhodes fell over not so long after it was put up. In its defence, that was due to an earthquake...

    It was created to celebrate seeing off Demetrius, who may have acquired his nickname (Besieger/Poliorcetes) ironically after failing to take it by siege.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The staff should be expected to put the passengers first: that is their job. If they don't want to do that they should leave and let the company replace them.
    Also it's naive to assume governments will put passengers first. They respond to those with the loudest voices. In practice this will mean higher eYes (don't want to fight the unions) and artifically low fares . Result is underinvestment, chronic unprofitability, a long term drain on the taxpayer and a steady decline in the quality of the system
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Looks like we might as well go all prepper and just eat home grown food after all (see debate the other day)

    Bananas to be wiped out in 5 years according to Dacre:

    http://dailym.ai/2aYE9on

    Haven't read the article but the death of the banana is greatly overstated. The current Cavandish Banana that is grown replaced the previous commercial banana, the Gros Michel, that was wiped out by a banana blight.

    There's plenty of new candidate bananas that would be able to be bred for commercial cultivation once thne Cavendish is blighted out of existence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited August 2016
    Patrick said:

    He's the shittiest president of modern times by a country mile. I really don't get it.
    He is a lot better than George W Bush and will probably have been better than either Hillary or Trump. He is not as good as Reagan or Bill Clinton but about level with Bush Snr
  • @matosman: Amazing stat in The Times. Of the 30 fastest 100 metres, 21 are by runners who've tested positive for drugs. The other 9? All Usain Bolt
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    ydoethur said:

    I think people are getting a bit confused by the words I'm using. A 'blind source' in this context means one they haven't seen before (this is the phrase the exam board uses). They are told who wrote it. However, the question is then about the source, not about the information in it.

    Furthermore, the exam boards have dramatically reduced the amount of contextual information they provide on their sources, including removing further information on the authors. Which is not terribly helpful given it is sometimes hard to work out their leanings from the tiny, often edited extract provided.

    That sounds less like History and more like English comprehension...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080


    True, there has been relatively little growth in the physical network. But it has been growing, unlike in BR times when it was constantly shrinking.

    ...

    I only travelled on BR in the last decade of its existence, but I have little doubt that the current railway is much better for passenger comfort and convenience. As an example: Pacer trains are widely derided, but when they were introduced in the 1980s they were seen as being better than the first-generation DMUs they replaced.

    (*) When the adjacent Broad Street station was sadly closed.

    First paragraph is not quite fair JJ. Cannock was reconnected to the national network under BR, when the Chase line was promoted from freight only status. It wasn't common, but it happened.

    Entirely agree with your second paragraph. BR's record in the provinces was absolutely dismal, especially in terms of punctuality, comfort and service. Things have improved enormously since privatisation. And it's not just where there is no alternative. The Cambrian lines are much more heavily used despite their remoteness and low speeds. In the 1980s you had a one car train every two hours from Mac along the lines. Now they are two car trains every hour, and they are well used.
  • There’s a similar situation with regard to GP services.
    I think we are probably on the verge of a big switch to private GP services. A few years back I had terrible sinusitis. Suffered for a couple of days but managed to get GP appointment.

    New doc at GP said it wasnt bad enough to give antibiotics and that I should just steam it.

    Went from there to London to work. Pain got worse. Not fancying being laid up for the bank holiday I phoned a private GP service near Bank. Appointment 40 mins later. Thorough unrushed examination by nurse who diagnosed acute sinusitis. Prescribed antibiotics which they promptly supplied. £70. Plus that included the prescription so £61 really when you take off NHS prescription charge.

    They also offered an annual season ticket for about £200.

    So much better than NHS and pretty reasonable cost.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Patrick said:

    He's the shittiest president of modern times by a country mile. I really don't get it.
    Worse than George W Bush? Give over, pull the other one it hath bells upon it.

    Obama stood (twice) on a platform of healthcare reform and got it through a hostile congress and senate
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ydoethur said:

    Think of it this way Patrick. US domestic policy doesn't directly affect us, while foreign policy ventures do. Under Bush, the effects were disastrous and extensive, so Obama's policy of drift has been an improvement for us if hardly for the people of Africa, Arabia and the Caucasus.

    Meanwhile few know or care about the failures of his domestic policy, so that doesn't impact on their view of him. Coupled to a genuine rhetorical talent that matches Bill Clinton and an ability so far as we know to keep his hands off young women, it's not surprising that those who know of him only superficially view him very positively.

    He will also do well compared to his successor. Clinton has all his drawbacks and none of his talents, and as for Trump...
    I'd argue it's even simpler - being black, smoothly dressed and sounding professorial/learned is more than enough for the casual TV watcher. I was initially impressed - then paid attention to a Q&A he did at Facebook midway through his first term. A content free 2hrs and answered IIRC 4 questions. He's such an empty suit.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    Alistair said:

    The price could have been cached. Or there could indeed have been the price drop. Train ticket prices are as complicated as airline prices.
    the National Rail site rarely shows the best deal as its designed to show the full price rather than discounted ones..

    My best advice is just to use the appropriate website for the rail company you will be travelling on for the majority of the journey..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    edited August 2016

    Tbat would be great. Walk to station, get on Thameslink, get off at Gatwick airport.

    Oh for the days when Nationwide Airlines flew from Joburg to Gatwick.

    Gatwick is just so much more accesible by public transport.
    About the same from here. (N Essex)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,868

    Nasa accused of corrupting climate change data by Australian politician
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-37091391

    The headline should have read "Scientifically illiterate fringe politician quotes scientifically illiterate climate change denier":
    http://rankexploits.com/musings/2014/how-not-to-calculate-temperature/
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    PlatoSaid said:

    I'd argue it's even simpler - being black, smoothly dressed and sounding professorial/learned is more than enough for the casual TV watcher. I was initially impressed - then paid attention to a Q&A he did at Facebook midway through his first term. A content free 2hrs and answered IIRC 4 questions. He's such an empty suit.
    Answering absolutely nothing in 2 hours is a skill I really would like to have...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    eek said:

    That sounds less like History and more like English comprehension...
    One further worry I have is that in English candidates also have to talk about the context of their extracts. Which means that the exams are sometimes alarmingly similar. If I were paranoid, I would wonder if the ultimate goal is to abolish History as a discrete discipline and throw it all into English.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    PlatoSaid said:

    I'd argue it's even simpler - being black, smoothly dressed and sounding professorial/learned is more than enough for the casual TV watcher. I was initially impressed - then paid attention to a Q&A he did at Facebook midway through his first term. A content free 2hrs and answered IIRC 4 questions. He's such an empty suit.
    The American Chucka Umuna, perchance?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124
    Patrick said:

    I really don't get it.
    I hope this doesn't come as a massive shock to you, but there's a pretty good chance that loads and loads of people don't share your views.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    edited August 2016
    HYUFD said:

    He is a lot better than George W Bush and will probably have been better than either Hillary or Trump. He is not as good as Reagan or Bill Clinton but about level with Bush Snr
    Better than Nixon. Not as good as Johnson, apart from the latter’s being involved with the Vietnam War.

    Given the way the US system works though, to be an effective (is that the same as good?) President one needs to have at least one sympathetic House of Congress.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    IanB2 said:

    Well I checked National Rail again just now, and the prices are now down to the same level as trainline. But they were not, yesterday, otherwise I wouldn't have gone near trainline in the first place; how do they hope to make money when they add a booking fee on top and charge more for postage than the other sites?

    If you are right I guess the only explanation is a mysterious and dramatic price drop during the few minutes between sites?
    I can think of a couple of possibilities:

    (1) a database glitch, perhaps if it's a long way in advance and the cheaper tickets hadn't filtered through, or
    (2) sorry, I can't think of a better way to put this, user error.

    I generally recommend using one of the TOC websites, they don't charge fees like Trainline.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I think we are probably on the verge of a big switch to private GP services. A few years back I had terrible sinusitis. Suffered for a couple of days but managed to get GP appointment.

    New doc at GP said it wasnt bad enough to give antibiotics and that I should just steam it.

    Went from there to London to work. Pain got worse. Not fancying being laid up for the bank holiday I phoned a private GP service near Bank. Appointment 40 mins later. Thorough unrushed examination by nurse who diagnosed acute sinusitis. Prescribed antibiotics which they promptly supplied. £70. Plus that included the prescription so £61 really when you take off NHS prescription charge.

    They also offered an annual season ticket for about £200.

    So much better than NHS and pretty reasonable cost.
    If everyone goes private then you'll have the same overutilisation problem causing short examination times and long waits.

    Private GPs only 'work' at the moments as there are the public GPs taking the strain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Better than Nixon. Not as good as Johnson, apart from the latter’s being involved with the Vietnam War.
    In many ways rather similar to Kennedy - the clean cut smooth talker who didn't achieve anything. But again, a better human being than Kennedy so far as we know (I think we would have heard if he had raped any teenage girls).

  • True, there has been relatively little growth in the physical network. But it has been growing, unlike in BR times when it was constantly shrinking.

    I was referring (though misusing the terms) to both the increase in 'routes' and the number of services on those routes.

    It looks as though a significant proportion of the growth in passengers occurs when more services are laid on a route. This may be due to a decrease in overcrowding attracting passengers or, more likely, that you are more likely to use the train if there is a service every half-hour instead of every hour, meaning that you wait less for a train and are more likely to catch a connection. Or even one every fifteen minutes instead of half-hour.

    The quality of many stations has also improved immeasurably since privatisation. Just look at photos of stations in the 1970s and 1980s and them now. This perhaps started with Liverpool Street's renovation in the 1980s. (*)

    I only travelled on BR in the last decade of its existence, but I have little doubt that the current railway is much better for passenger comfort and convenience. As an example: Pacer trains are widely derided, but when they were introduced in the 1980s they were seen as being better than the first-generation DMUs they replaced.

    (*) When the adjacent Broad Street station was sadly closed.

    The pacers were a cheap solution to stop Thatcher implementing the Serpell report and closing lines wholesale.

    I think what is driving it is the rising congestion on roads making driving unpleasant, uncomfortable and unreliable journey time wise along with ever greater parking charges and restrictions.

    Last may the first train of the year rolled up at Okehampton. This runs sundays only principally for people to visit Dartmoor. The crew were astonished to find over 100 people on the platform travelling as far as Maidstone.

    Similarly a new service Summer Saturdays one each way only from London to Weymouth via Salisbury and Yeovil has been so well used that it has had to be increased from three to five coaches.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Alistair said:

    If everyone goes private then you'll have the same overutilisation problem causing short examination times and long waits.

    Private GPs only 'work' at the moments as there are the public GPs taking the strain.
    ... AND THATS WHY ANTIBIOTICS ARE FAILING.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    eek said:

    Answering absolutely nothing in 2 hours is a skill I really would like to have...
    The problem was he wasn't even interesting. I was waiting and waiting and waiting for a nugget/anything of any substance. It was like someone reading out the phonebook in a certain weighty style - with loads of self-regard thrown in. He referred to himself 118x during his DNC Hillary endorsement speech.

    Trump talks about himself, and in cliches/random words too - but at least he sounds interesting. Obama reminds me of the blah blah blah of a Peanuts cartoon.
  • ydoethur said:

    In many ways rather similar to Kennedy - the clean cut smooth talker who didn't achieve anything. But again, a better human being than Kennedy so far as we know (I think we would have heard if he had raped any teenage girls).
    Kennedy did however a) kind of save the world during the Cuban missile crisis; and b) put a man on the moon. A scuzzy blob of testosterone but with some redeeming achievements. Obama has none of that. An arrogant empty suit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    ydoethur said:

    First paragraph is not quite fair JJ. Cannock was reconnected to the national network under BR, when the Chase line was promoted from freight only status. It wasn't common, but it happened.

    Entirely agree with your second paragraph. BR's record in the provinces was absolutely dismal, especially in terms of punctuality, comfort and service. Things have improved enormously since privatisation. And it's not just where there is no alternative. The Cambrian lines are much more heavily used despite their remoteness and low speeds. In the 1980s you had a one car train every two hours from Mac along the lines. Now they are two car trains every hour, and they are well used.
    Oh, indeed it happened. Willington station in South Derbyshire also reopened in late BR times, albeit that was on a passenger line. There was also an abortive first attempt at reopening the station at Corby in 1987, although BR closed it a few years later. It has since reopened again, and passenger numbers have doubled.

    In fact, Corby's two reopenings are an indication of privatisation's success. BR could not make the station work. The private companies have.

    But think of all the lines we lost, both passenger and freight.

    Think of the lucky escape we had when the Settle and Carlisle was saved. The Woodhead line was not so lucky.

    The Serpell report is also well worth studying. Imagine if that had gone through!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394

    ... AND THATS WHY ANTIBIOTICS ARE FAILING.
    Exactly right.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Oh, indeed it happened. Willington station in South Derbyshire also reopened in late BR times, albeit that was on a passenger line. There was also an abortive first attempt at reopening the station at Corby in 1987, although BR closed it a few years later. It has since reopened again, and passenger numbers have doubled.

    In fact, Corby's two reopenings are an indication of privatisation's success. BR could not make the station work. The private companies have.

    But think of all the lines we lost, both passenger and freight.

    Think of the lucky escape we had when the Settle and Carlisle was saved. The Woodhead line was not so lucky.

    The Serpell report is also well worth studying. Imagine if that had gone through!
    Having looked at it, it is hard to imagine railways could have survived at all. A classic accountant's mentality that assumed passengers went from station to station.

    The Waverley route was a loss, but the worst was and remains the Great Central. If we still had that, we wouldn't be arguing over HS2 now. And if it hadn't been sold off for building we could just put it back.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'd be interested in hearing why those people in the minority think Barack Obama has been so bad. He seems to have been reasonably adequate to me, bearing in mind the very difficult circumstances in which he took office.

    I'm cautiously hopeful that machine politician Hillary Clinton will be a machine politician president in the vein of LBJ. That wouldn't be too shabby.

    In the event of a Trump defeat, how will the Republican party react? If they are divided, as currently seems probable, will Hillary Clinton be able to form constructive working arrangements with some Republicans for the first time in years?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all.

    Most attractive aspect of rail travel was that from the 90s onward I could actually work on the train. Given my billing rate this made it a no-brainer over the alternatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Patrick said:

    Kennedy did however a) kind of save the world during the Cuban missile crisis; and b) put a man on the moon. A scuzzy blob of testosterone but with some redeeming achievements. Obama has none of that. An arrogant empty suit.
    I think you'll find the moon landings were in 1969, some years after Kennedy's death, and I'm reluctant to praise Kennedy's skilled diplomacy for saving the world when it was his mindless bungling and schoolboy aggression that had imperilled it in the first place.
  • Alistair said:

    Obama stood (twice) on a platform of healthcare reform and got it through a hostile congress and senate
    Getting legislation passed is not a measure of success. Obamacare is an out and out failure. Trump won't even need to repeal it if he gets elected as it is about to implode anyway. Obama lied blatantly to get it passed and now premiums are exploding upwards as (no shit Sherlock) the healthy young are avoiding participation. Obama has profoundly damaged the US health system in an act of pure petulance. Not being able to afford health insurance in the US is a serous serious problem. History will not be kind to him.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Alistair said:

    If everyone goes private then you'll have the same overutilisation problem causing short examination times and long waits.

    Private GPs only 'work' at the moments as there are the public GPs taking the strain.
    Apropos, appeared on my timeline this morning:

    https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/technology/doctaly-app-lets-see-gp-within-30-minutes-saviour-route-nhs-privatisation/
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    I can think of a couple of possibilities:

    (1) a database glitch, perhaps if it's a long way in advance and the cheaper tickets hadn't filtered through, or
    (2) sorry, I can't think of a better way to put this, user error.

    I generally recommend using one of the TOC websites, they don't charge fees like Trainline.
    One of the under-the-hood changes of the last few years is the growth of distributed databases. These have a feature that can be quite disconcerting for the unwary.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eventual_consistency
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    The American Chucka Umuna, perchance?
    I find Chuka worse - he's looks expensive. I could imagine him as the playboy offspring of an oligarch who appears in Hello. Obama looks like he went to Harvard and bores the tits off people, Chuka bathes in asses milk.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I'd be interested in hearing why those people in the minority think Barack Obama has been so bad. He seems to have been reasonably adequate to me, bearing in mind the very difficult circumstances in which he took office.

    I'm cautiously hopeful that machine politician Hillary Clinton will be a machine politician president in the vein of LBJ. That wouldn't be too shabby.

    In the event of a Trump defeat, how will the Republican party react? If they are divided, as currently seems probable, will Hillary Clinton be able to form constructive working arrangements with some Republicans for the first time in years?

    Not bad, just a nothing President who achieved nothing of value over his eight years. Indeed in that time gun violence, race relations and insurance premiums are worse than ever. He has let things slide domestically in a way that Clinton and Bush never did.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    ydoethur said:

    Having looked at it, it is hard to imagine railways could have survived at all. A classic accountant's mentality that assumed passengers went from station to station.

    The Waverley route was a loss, but the worst was and remains the Great Central. If we still had that, we wouldn't be arguing over HS2 now. And if it hadn't been sold off for building we could just put it back.

    I actually disagree about the Great Central. You'r right about it north of Aylesbury where it was it's own route, but south of there until near Marylebone it shared existing tracks, which are still in use and busy today. It would have done very little to ease congestion into London, as that part of the route's still open.

    The real tragedy for me was the closure of my beloved Matlock to Derby line, which AIUI was not in the initial Beeching report. It was closed because the LNWR contingent of BR did not want two alternative routes to Manchester and campaigned for it to be closed instead of the Hope Valley. The Peak Line was used as a diversion during WCML electrification, and then unceremoniously closed.

    A typical example of BR's shrinking mindset.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Incidentally, there was a gun/axe attack in Cologne a couple of days ago, but minimal coverage.

    It's possible the new approach of downplaying terrorist attacks will cause a pissing contest to try and actually get media attention. If knives and axes won't do it, there's the potential for (unwittingly) the current media policy to encourage mass shootings and explosive/vehicle attacks.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,014
    Patrick said:

    Getting legislation passed is not a measure of success. Obamacare is an out and out failure. Trump won't even need to repeal it if he gets elected as it is about to implode anyway. Obama lied blatantly to get it passed and now premiums are exploding upwards as (no shit Sherlock) the healthy young are avoiding participation. Obama has profoundly damaged the US health system in an act of pure petulance. Not being able to afford health insurance in the US is a serous serious problem. History will not be kind to him.
    The success of the Affordable Care Act is a hugely inconvenient truth for its opponents
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/09/21/the-success-of-the-affordable-care-act-is-a-hugely-inconvenient-truth-for-its-opponents/?utm_term=.d25cbf2aed98
    "But I can tell you this about Obamacare: When it comes to meeting one of its most important goals — providing coverage to the uninsured — it is working extremely well. It’s posting historical gains on this front and, in so doing, both insulating itself from repeal and creating a daunting political challenge for its opponents."
    http://www.cbpp.org/research/health/census-data-show-historic-coverage-gains-in-2014
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    ydoethur said:

    Having looked at it, it is hard to imagine railways could have survived at all. A classic accountant's mentality that assumed passengers went from station to station.

    The Waverley route was a loss, but the worst was and remains the Great Central. If we still had that, we wouldn't be arguing over HS2 now. And if it hadn't been sold off for building we could just put it back.
    Interesting comment in the Wikipedia entry that passenger numbers were picking up throughout the 80’s to a peak in 1988.
    Was that the influence of the petrol/diesel price increases at that time?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031

    Incidentally, there was a gun/axe attack in Cologne a couple of days ago, but minimal coverage.

    It's possible the new approach of downplaying terrorist attacks will cause a pissing contest to try and actually get media attention. If knives and axes won't do it, there's the potential for (unwittingly) the current media policy to encourage mass shootings and explosive/vehicle attacks.

    The story doesn't sound very terrorist related: there was an argument between three men and another man; one person was stabbed, and said stabbed person pulled a gun and shot one of his attackers.

    It's entirely possible it was Syrian refugees, but it doesn't fit the pattern. (Other than being in Germany.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. 1000, assuming that's true, it highlights another problem with the cover-up/minimising coverage approach I didn't think of yesterday.

    Every time there's a knife or gun attack, people will wonder if it's terrorism that's being covered up. That might lead to a larger than accurate picture forming in the public's mind when it comes to the threat/terrorist activity. One more reason we need to be able to trust the media/politicians/the police.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Aww

    Team GB Tom Bosworth proposes to his partner making it the FOURTH #Rio2016 betrothal #GBR https://t.co/nT9vCkQTub https://t.co/NEdJeyzZr2
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Not bad, just a nothing President who achieved nothing of value over his eight years. Indeed in that time gun violence, race relations and insurance premiums are worse than ever. He has let things slide domestically in a way that Clinton and Bush never did.
    Obama and his empty campaign promise to close Guantanamo Bay - Still there after 8 yrs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The success of the Affordable Care Act is a hugely inconvenient truth for its opponents
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/09/21/the-success-of-the-affordable-care-act-is-a-hugely-inconvenient-truth-for-its-opponents/?utm_term=.d25cbf2aed98
    "But I can tell you this about Obamacare: When it comes to meeting one of its most important goals — providing coverage to the uninsured — it is working extremely well. It’s posting historical gains on this front and, in so doing, both insulating itself from repeal and creating a daunting political challenge for its opponents."
    http://www.cbpp.org/research/health/census-data-show-historic-coverage-gains-in-2014
    The problem is that it has achieved that by making already expensive insurance for the middle classes even more expensive and the coverage worse overall. A system that creates so many losers, vocal ones, is going to get a tough time. I don't think it will be repealed, but they may have to look at a much better single-payer system and establish Medicare for all rather than free substandard insurance people lower down the income scale and substandard expensive insurance for the middle classes with the rich being able to afford the price rises for the best. That's what Obama should have done, been truly radical.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111

    Interesting comment in the Wikipedia entry that passenger numbers were picking up throughout the 80’s to a peak in 1988.
    Was that the influence of the petrol/diesel price increases at that time?

    The effect of Thatcherism, innit? ;)

    But seriously, probably down to the fact that BR management was given free reign from the early 1980s to manage themselves, and they came up with sectorisation. Network SouthEast was particularly successful.

    However, I'd like to see the figures for that claim: my understanding was that any growth was very low, especialy in comparison to the doubling we've seen in the as twenty years. Figure 1 of (1) is illustrative:

    (1) https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/363718/rail-trends-factsheet-2014.pdf
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    MaxPB said:

    The problem is that it has achieved that by making already expensive insurance for the middle classes even more expensive and the coverage worse overall. A system that creates so many losers, vocal ones, is going to get a tough time. I don't think it will be repealed, but they may have to look at a much better single-payer system and establish Medicare for all rather than free substandard insurance people lower down the income scale and substandard expensive insurance for the middle classes with the rich being able to afford the price rises for the best. That's what Obama should have done, been truly radical.
    No way could he have got that through Congress.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Obama and his empty campaign promise to close Guantanamo Bay - Still there after 8 yrs.
    His first act as President was to sign the order closing it within 60 days, in front of the TV cameras.

    Only then did he realise he didn't know what to do with the inmates.

    Rather a metaphor for all his domestic reforms - extremely well-meaning, but not thought through at all.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Incidentally, there was a gun/axe attack in Cologne a couple of days ago, but minimal coverage.

    It's possible the new approach of downplaying terrorist attacks will cause a pissing contest to try and actually get media attention. If knives and axes won't do it, there's the potential for (unwittingly) the current media policy to encourage mass shootings and explosive/vehicle attacks.

    Norwegians get everywhere... I think it's a massive strategic mistake. Pretending there isn't a problem/smothering stories with a pillow until they die fuels mistrust. It may yield short-term gains, but destroys faith long-term.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,771
    edited August 2016
    Did PB/YouGov poll the entire readership of The Guardian?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    GIN1138 said:

    Did PB/YouGov poll the entire readership of The Guardian?

    What, all five of them? Surely not!

    Anyway, work beckons alas. Have a good morning!
  • I see July inflation is up.

    Cancel Brexit and bring back Osborne.

    Is the one month I need inflation to be down.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    No way could he have got that through Congress.
    He didn't try, instead he gave insurance companies a new and better licence to print money.
This discussion has been closed.