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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s 2nd terrible poll for Corbyn: YouGov ratings from i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s 2nd terrible poll for Corbyn: YouGov ratings from its latest Scotland survey
Remember in those by-gone days in September 2015 when Mr. Corbyn pulled off his sensational leadership victory? Remember what he said would be his biggest initial priority? That was going to be Scotland where five months earlier Labour had slumped from 40 seats in the general election to just one – the same as the LD and CON.
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He came to the authorities’ attention when he tried to help an underage teenager from Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray join Isil.
He twice attempted to go to Syria but was arrested once in Munich and then turned back by the Turkish authorities and sent to Geneva, in May 2015.
The Swiss authorities charged him with “criminal association in connection with terrorism”. He was sent back to France and jailed for ten months.
He was tagged when he came out of prison in March this year. The public prosecutor appealed unsuccessfully against his release.
A French security source said he was in contact with Maxime Hauchard, a French jihadist identified as an Isil executioner.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/two-men-with-knifes-take-hostages-in-normandy-church/
I'm going to places where betting is illegal and PB is blocked by the great firewalls of Verizon and Dubai
In any case, PB access is unfettered across the pond (thank god).
2) There is a an alarmingly large pool of sympathizer muslims embedded in the west. Before you ask for a source consider how many hundreds have travelled from europe to syria
3) Why is it we are always told we shouldn't blame all muslims for terrorist atrocities yet you seem fine justifying the killing of iraqi christians because of what some other christians did
You sir are part of the problem
Nor I Mike.
And in addition, I cannot ever recall seeing a poll where a party leader's performance is rated even worse amongst supporters of his own party than amongst supporters of his opponents.
i.e. Net ratings for Corbyn:
from Labour 2015 voters -47%
from SNP 2015 voters -23%.
Was I outraged. Not really. Frankly it was common sense. What is worse,someone having their pride slighted by being profiled at an airport due to their appearance or accent or someone having their head cut off in church?
This modern fad for abhoring all forms of discrimination is now downright dangerous.
There is necessary and unnecessary discrimination. We need to er..discriminate between them.
Trump 45.5 .. Clinton 44.2
http://landmarkcommunications.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LandmarkRosetta-Stone-Releases-Latest-Georgia-Presidential-Poll.pdf
(with apologies to the late Benny Hill)
I see the Germans are again not doing themselves any favours of lack of details of the shooting in Munich. They say not terrorist related and I am sure it isn't, but the lack of clarity after 7-8hrs is not good approach given the way they have handled other events.
They are still very tight lipped about the knife man who became a BMW hood ornament the other day.
Mohammed Amin MBE @Mohammed_Amin
Just signed petition calling on International Basketball Federation (FIBA) to allow competitors to wear hijab. https://www.change.org/p/fiba-federation-international-basketball-association-fiba-allow-hijab?recruiter=28357738&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=share_twitter_responsive …
I think there is something in that but let's not go too far there would not be a Tory revival in Scotland if Mundell was suddenly leader.
Owen Smith: "In 2 yrs time we will have made case for Britain to remain in EU. I'm confident of that. I will make case with great passion."
Eh? Labour seem so hellbent on fighting past battles. Hopeless.
Sadly, religion i.e. let's be blunt - someone being a Muslim - can no longer be considered an irrelevant consideration. This may outrage some and may outrage and sadden Muslims who rightly hate the way they risk being bracketed with the monsters who committed today's outrage. Much as my father loathed the way he - a gentle Irish doctor - regularly travelling to and from his relations in Ireland was viewed by the authorities, when travelling, as another potential Irish terrorist. But he understood the reasons why. And he loathed even more the way Irish terrorists besmirched the country he loved and made Irish Catholics objects of suspicion in the country he now called home.
Since we cannot make windows into mens' souls and since the state has an obligation to try and protect its citizens then it needs to target those measures it needs to take at those groups most likely to be the greatest risk, even while accepting that only a small proportion of that group will pose a real risk. Doing so while not turning the rest against you is the key. But not doing anything at all because the state is more concerned about upsetting innocent individuals than about protecting innocents from harm is both absurd and dangerous.
Please, please please let him lose in a landslide.
"Blaming the victims I see. Are Muslims not moral agents? Do they bear no responsibility for what they do?
What did Pakistani Christians do to justify attacks on them and their churches? Or Copts in Egypt? Or Christians in Nigeria or in Sudan?
Do you think that Islamism started only 14 years ago? It has been around for decades and long before the second Iraq war. It is a peculiar form of European egocentricity that seems to believe even the actions of Islamist terrorists and the Islamic state and other Islamist organisations are the fault of Europeans, as if even when we are being attacked it can only really be about us, as if we have to be the centre of attention. Islamists are not children: they have a choice. And if they choose to do evil rather than good then I for one refuse to accept that it is my fault that they made a choice that others, including Muslims themselves, chose not to make. We do a disservice to all those Muslims who are not terrorists, who abhor what these people are doing, who choose good over evil by refusing to accept the moral agency of the bad guys."
However we shouldn't get too excited by polls until after Labor Day ...
The big danger of this is that the terrorists will respond by seeking to ratchet up the horror.
The challenge for our leaders is not to come out with the same statements but to provide leadership on this most troubling and difficult of issues in a way which does not exploit it or inflame the mob but which speaks with clarity about what is happening and how we might address it. We need leaders who understand that the state's primary and most important duty is to protect its citizens and that they need to do this for its own sake and not as a route to power.
Seema Malhotra new office allocated
Owen Smith is somehow waging an even more inept challenge to Corbyn than Angela Eagle did https://t.co/a5oXGSbrVC https://t.co/1IHsYkhCL3
If any of them could get their act together to propose something - ANYTHING - other than the status quo for the Union, then voters might consider that they were worth listening to.
(Of course I'm old enough to remember that we were assured Corbyn would 'win back Scotland' when he was elected last September. How we laughed.)
On the same theme, all those 2015 Green voters who registered in order to get Corbyn elected are by and large still intending to vote Green, as that party are polling at their general election level of 4% in the ICM poll.
One extract will suffice:-
"The conceit that secular liberal democracy embodies an ideal that can transcend its origins in the specific cultural and religious traditions of Europe, and lay claim to a universal legitimacy, is one that has served the continent well. It has helped to heal the grievous wounds inflicted by the calamities of the first half of the twentieth century; to integrate large numbers of people from beyond the borders of Europe; and to provide a degree of equality for women and minorities. What do the sanguinary fantasies of either Breivik or of the jihadists who twice in 2015 brought carnage to the streets of Paris have that can compare? Only one thing, perhaps: a capacity to excite those who find the pieties of Europe’s liberal society boring. The more of these there are, the more—inevitably—the framework for behavior and governance that has prevailed in Western Europe since the end of the Second World War will come under strain. In question is whether the large numbers of migrants who have no familiarity with the norms of a secular and liberal society such as have evolved in a country like Germany will find them appealing enough to adopt; and whether native Europeans, confronted by a vast influx of people from a different cultural background, will themselves be tempted to abandon liberal values, and reach for a Holy Lance. "
Labour are really on their way to Lib Dem style irrelevance here - you'd think after multiple drubbings at the ballot box, they might begin to get the message.
I am on holiday with my family and grandchildren in Tuscany and we visited the leaning Tower of Pisa today in temperatures of 90+ but the noticeable change was the military presence and security scanning of all visitors to the Tower. It is a sad commentary on our times but very necessary.
Italy seems quite impoverished and we returned to Viareggio where we had stayed 30 years ago with our children and it seemed quite sad with closed hotels and virtually empty beaches. The Italians were wonderful with families and children and remain so as does their dreadful driving. Our family have had many happy holidays in Italy over the years and hope things start to look up for them
Smith is the only answer to one question, getting rid of Corbyn. There is no way Smith could lead Labour to a GE victory but it probably would save the party itself.
But then SNP would cry we were short changing them. Scotland, I fear is a lost cause.
They need to take their medicine now or face a long slow decline. Sad, they have (or had?) a decent manufacturing base I believe.
As he points out, we are hindered by the aftershocks of Europe's 20th century history (we are far and away the bloodiest civilisation ever) and our fetish for secular liberality. It's very difficult for the commentariat and our political/cultural elites to resile from their cultural relativism (love them or loathe them the Victorians were possessed of a muscular Christian faith and the associated superiority complex that Got Things Done).
We are importing people from the cultural past, who are unimpressed with our obsession with equality, identity and gender issues. Worse, a fraction of our native born Muslims appear to be attracted to this more primitive and less compromising interpretation of Islam.
I have no idea how we progress from here, sorry to say.
It is probably not unrealistic to expect the SNP to fall back to 40 -42% by 2020 with their seats dropping below 50.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
https://www.cpc.udel.edu/content-sub-site/Documents/UD CPC RNC poll July 25 release-cpa.pdf
As a party of Government, their honeymoon may be over. Their record of delivery is not stellar and the voters will notice.
...but...
That doesn't really matter for Indy. The Brexit campaign has shown if the lies are big enough you can sell it.
If they can win an Indyref, Government doesn't matter. Like the Brexiteers...
Russia has already taken the former option (which is why Putin is so despised by secular liberals) and Trump is threatening much the same in the USA.
Europe needs to learn that you cannot excise Christianity from the civilization that grew out of that Christianity and still have the civilization for very long.
They possibly need to develop a Union or bust stance and stick to it as one, instead of dipping their toes in the water of Indyref2/briefing against either other and then running away again. It gives the impression that they want to switch horses, but are being run from London, which is the thing that weakens them most here.
They seemed to start some exploration of full federalism, but that has gone nowhere.
But as has already been outlined in full here, they're in a position where they're scrapping over 50% Unionist votes with Tories/LDs and saying nothing different to give people a reason to think they have any fresh thinking.
This is one of the reasons I hope that the Eurozone bites the bullet and heads for full EMU so that the necessary fiscal transfers can begin.
Of course, Italy could do a Flitaly and leave the euro. Unfortunately there's no treaty mechanism (i.e. a euro equivalent of Lisbon's article 50) to allow them to do that without leaving the EU proper. They could unilaterally withdraw, but I suspect that would be crippling.
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/07/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-corbyns-economics/
Concluding: "If Jeremy and John had known what they were doing these impasses would not have happened. The impression left is that they have created a movement that hates what’s happening in the world and can get really angry about it, but then has not a clue what to do about it."
Leaked Emails Appear To Show Steven Woolfe Is Ineligible To Stand In Ukip Leadership Race
Rules state Ukip leadership hopefuls need to be a member for at least two years.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/steven-woolfe-ukip_uk_5797b95ee4b02508de478dc7?hkg1pmuq33libpgb9
Northern Italy is one of the richest places in the whole of Europe. Unemployment in parts of the North is as low as 3.8%! (See: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lfst_r_lfu3rt&lang=en). It has a large and dynamic export industry, and a fabulous industrial base.
Southern Italy is one of the poorest places in the whole of Europe. Parts of the South - Sicily and the like - have unemployment rates north of 20%, with appalling levels of crime, and the vast bulk of economic activity involves working for the government or extracting bribes from EU structural development funds. Of the 40 companies in the MIB index, four are based in Rome, the other 36 are in the North of the country. (And the four based in Rome are all there because they were privatisations of government businesses.)
Germany has done a great job dealing with massive regional differences. Italy has done an appalling one.