I find it truly remarkable that Labour is as high as 27%. It shows the incredible strength of the brand and why it is worth the sane wing fighting for it.
Agreed. The danger is that its a 'soft floor': that in current circumstances, some Labour supporters are giving them their support in order to prevent too big a Tory majority but don't actually want to see Corbyn win and so would drift off were that to become more likely.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
Not so much discredited as that they haven't been updated for the 2015 results and because the Tories did a lot better in the marginals last year, even just entering the real scores from the GE results in a 'prediction' (postdiction?) of about 20-30 (?) Lab gains. It's a pretty meaningless baseline and until the sites are sorted out, aren't much use
The Locale Le Figaro now reporting that the priest who was taken hostage at the Normandy church "had his throat cut" https://t.co/Byp6ofbBsw
Bastards.
The Blood of the Martyrs is the Life of the Church.
May he rest in peace and gain his eternal reward.
Is there any discussion in the media whatsoever of the copycat effect?
The copycat effect is why newspapers don't publish details of methods people use to commit suicide. They know of the "Werther effect", named after the book by Goethe. Robert Cialdini in his famous book Influence notes how the incidence of plane crashes rises after the widespread reporting of a suicide.
There's an obvious copycat effect going on right now.
A lot of these horrendous murders are not the result of years of fiendish work by Daesh agent-runners who work in a structure which has its tentacles everywhere. They are the actions of sick scum who have decapitation videos stored on their phones and whose only connection with real Islam is that they believe they're going to heaven. The Munich killer was obsessed with Anders Breivik, who calls himself a "Christian". The teenage Bavaria killer shouted "I'm going to f*** you, b****" at a woman he attacked once he'd left the train on which he'd attacked the other people. The Nice killer was a pork-eating alcohol drinker who never prayed, at least not until a few days before he murdered so many people on the promenade. (Had he played a lot of Grand Theft Auto?) They were all psychos. You have to be a psycho to do actions like theirs, or to commit the murder in the Normandy church. There was something about western society that made it incapable of seriously considering the psychopathic aspect of Breivik's actions. The same is true of these actions by "Muslims".
Men are going postal, with an "Islamic" twist, at only a few days' notice.
Which is not to say that Daesh doesn't carry out propaganda. They do. There's an organisation called SITE in the US which stamps their white propaganda as genuine and suitable for mass distribution. Daesh take a leaf out of the book of the Mongols: depress the enemy by impressing them with how brutal you are.
It's fanned by social media and by media tout court.
Anders Brievik called himself a fellow traveller with Christianity. Much of the media hates Christianity, hence he became a Christian. Very little about him being a Freemason oddly enough.
Obviously I've not read ISIS publications myself to say if that is true, but I doubt they actually care, and if these were local idiots 'inspired' by ISIS, used to hearing them referred to as Daesh in local media, they might be used to using the term themselves.
That's very probably who they were.
"Inspired" not just by Daesh generally, but specifically by media reports of similar terrorist murders that have been committed by men who call themselves soldiers working for that regime.
If a Muslim man goes postal, chances are he'll say he's doing it for Daesh, whatever name he calls them by.
I have read some of their English-language material [1], and I can tell you that what they call themselves is "the Khilāfa", using the Arabic word for "Caliphate" within their English prose.
Note
1) Their glossy magazine "Dabiq", stamped as genuine by the Israeli-connected organs who specialise in such credential checking and who are accepted as the experts on such matters by the western media. (Clarion Project, SITE.)
The majority understates the level of change here, because it is over Lab + SNP + others, so Lab are much worse than a 102 majority in a two party system.
Yes, a 102 majority is simply 45 Tory gains. 40 from Labour and 5 from the SNP.
5 gains from the SNP seems implausible.
I put that in to see if malcolm was around. 3 looks more doable.
Berwickshire is guaranteed don't know what the 2 others would be.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
They're OK still - the issue was GIGO. But with boundary changes due people haven't been quoting seats so much.
Heres' today's poll giving a figure of 96 [made some guesses on Scotland]: http://bit.ly/2abs3ZT
Nooo - the LDs would lose Brake and Pugh!
Maybe we could give them an emergency Brake.
Actually a good example of why the seat predictors don't really work. In the circumstances of an unpopular Labour Party Brake would be OK even with the Tories on 43%.
Comments
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/migrant-hacked-to-death-in-bloodbath-at-calais-jungle-camp-a3304491.html
"Inspired" not just by Daesh generally, but specifically by media reports of similar terrorist murders that have been committed by men who call themselves soldiers working for that regime.
If a Muslim man goes postal, chances are he'll say he's doing it for Daesh, whatever name he calls them by.
I have read some of their English-language material [1], and I can tell you that what they call themselves is "the Khilāfa", using the Arabic word for "Caliphate" within their English prose.
Note
1) Their glossy magazine "Dabiq", stamped as genuine by the Israeli-connected organs who specialise in such credential checking and who are accepted as the experts on such matters by the western media. (Clarion Project, SITE.)