I read a report in Liverpool paper yesterday that half of their rough sleepers are EU migrants, and Sky had an expose on some horror properties with up to 17 migrants living in a 2 bedroomed house.
I commonly encountered HMO residences with 6-8 single adults in them in places like East Ham, Tottenham, Wood Green when working on government funded research over the last couple of years.
Perhaps the "betrayal" is by those who worked for Brexit without working it out.
As we're going to find out, Brexit cannot be defined in isolation, so I have no idea what you mean by 'working it out'. The UK cannot unilaterally decided to join EFTA, or the EEA or create an FTA+ with the EU. All we know is that if there's no deal to be had with rEU, we will trade with them under WTO MFN rules as of early 2019.
The referendum question couldn't put those options to the electorate; it's not in the UK's gift to do so.
Some of you continue to place far too much emphasis on the benefits system as a means of controlling immigration. The majority of current immigration is not supported by benefits.
But the component of immigration that is supported by benefits plays a very large role in damaging public consent for all immigration.
It's an incorrect perception, but it's very clear that preferential access to social housing and benefits is corrosive. There's a local row going on about immigrants getting first dibs on a bunch of refurbished and modernised council houses.
It's not just about preferential access. People look at someone coming here, doing a part time job and having their income topped up by tax credits and they resent it.
One percentage point loss for SNP in Scotland would mean huge losses in seats.
Edinburgh South and Berwickshire switched on these numbers, which sounds about right. I suspect Edinburgh South will remain Labour due to Tory tacticals though
Not yet confirmed that this atrocity is yet another terrorist attack, but if so, taking nuns hostage and murdering a priest in his own Church certainly ups the anti. This may have crossed the line for a normally tolerant society and a somewhat complacent authority.
If running over 100's of people in a lorry on the most important day in France or slaughtering people around the capital including massacring loads of people packed into a music venue doesn't do it, nothing will.
France has about 40% practising catholics...
Not getting enough practice obviously.
'While in 1965, 81% of the French declared themselves to be Catholics, in 2009 this proportion was 64%.'
'According to a poll in January 2007,[257] only 5% of the French population attended church regularly (10% attend church services regularly among the respondents who did identify themselves as Catholics).'
Lots of religious people don't attend church that regularly, even in this country (the Philippines) probably the most catholic place on earth, there is a very substantial "high days and holidays" attending section.
Some of you continue to place far too much emphasis on the benefits system as a means of controlling immigration. The majority of current immigration is not supported by benefits.
EU migrants account for around 7% of the workforce and claim around 15% of in-working benefits and a similar proportion of housing benefit iirc. Without that assistance how many do you think would still come?
"Tax Credits : 317,800 of these claimants were EU nationals.... and 6.8% of total claimants."
There are in excess of 2m EU citizens in the UK, so the percentage is small.
People largely come looking for jobs, not for benefits, but I do think it would mean a lot more single people arriving and far fewer families. That would certainly suit us better.
The single ones wont turn up to man car washes even to live in bedsits if no in work benefits as they need the in work benefits to live on so they can save/send home the benefits.
We will still get students doing years out and the like but that will be it
Not yet confirmed that this atrocity is yet another terrorist attack, but if so, taking nuns hostage and murdering a priest in his own Church certainly ups the anti. This may have crossed the line for a normally tolerant society and a somewhat complacent authority.
Yes, if this is an Islamic terrorist attack on a Christian Church then I believe a line has been crossed.
This has made my angry in a way none of the others have. Killing priests in their church while saying Mass crosses a line.
This is not just an attack on a human being, it is an attack on God Himself.
I expect God can look after Himself, but if in doubt why not start a jihad about it?
Seriously if you think the church element makers this qualitatively different from running over small children with a lorry at a secular event, you are a disgusting numpty.
I find it truly remarkable that Labour is as high as 27%. It shows the incredible strength of the brand and why it is worth the sane wing fighting for it.
The Locale Le Figaro now reporting that the priest who was taken hostage at the Normandy church "had his throat cut" https://t.co/Byp6ofbBsw
Bastards.
The Blood of the Martyrs is the Life of the Church.
May he rest in peace and gain his eternal reward.
Is there any discussion in the media whatsoever of the copycat effect?
The copycat effect is why newspapers don't publish details of methods people use to commit suicide. They know of the "Werther effect", named after the book by Goethe. Robert Cialdini in his famous book Influence notes how the incidence of plane crashes rises after the widespread reporting of a suicide.
There's an obvious copycat effect going on right now.
A lot of these horrendous murders are not the result of years of fiendish work by Daesh agent-runners who work in a structure which has its tentacles everywhere. They are the actions of sick scum who have decapitation videos stored on their phones and whose only connection with real Islam is that they believe they're going to heaven. The Munich killer was obsessed with Anders Breivik, who calls himself a "Christian". The teenage Bavaria killer shouted "I'm going to f*** you, b****" at a woman he attacked once he'd left the train on which he'd attacked the other people. The Nice killer was a pork-eating alcohol drinker who never prayed, at least not until a few days before he murdered so many people on the promenade. (Had he played a lot of Grand Theft Auto?) They were all psychos. You have to be a psycho to do actions like theirs, or to commit the murder in the Normandy church. There was something about western society that made it incapable of seriously considering the psychopathic aspect of Breivik's actions. The same is true of these actions by "Muslims".
Men are going postal, with an "Islamic" twist, at only a few days' notice.
Which is not to say that Daesh doesn't carry out propaganda. They do. There's an organisation called SITE in the US which stamps their white propaganda as genuine and suitable for mass distribution. Daesh take a leaf out of the book of the Mongols: depress the enemy by impressing them with how brutal you are.
It's fanned by social media and by media tout court.
The majority understates the level of change here, because it is over Lab + SNP + others, so Lab are much worse than a 102 majority in a two party system.
UKIP will claw back some of that lead from Con though, unless there's an election in a few months.
The Lib Dems need to make Nick Clegg leader again.
Er, no. I liked Clegg, I think history will be kinder to him than the electorate, but the reason he should have gone before he did was nothing to do with his qualities as a politician or leader, but because the majority of people will never listen to anything he might say, fairly or not.
Granted, Farron is having real trouble being noticed, and there's no other options, but Clegg is not the answer.
Not yet confirmed that this atrocity is yet another terrorist attack, but if so, taking nuns hostage and murdering a priest in his own Church certainly ups the anti. This may have crossed the line for a normally tolerant society and a somewhat complacent authority.
If running over 100's of people in a lorry on the most important day in France or slaughtering people around the capital including massacring loads of people packed into a music venue doesn't do it, nothing will.
France has about 40% practising catholics...
Not getting enough practice obviously.
'While in 1965, 81% of the French declared themselves to be Catholics, in 2009 this proportion was 64%.'
'According to a poll in January 2007,[257] only 5% of the French population attended church regularly (10% attend church services regularly among the respondents who did identify themselves as Catholics).'
Lots of religious people don't attend church that regularly, even in this country (the Philippines) probably the most catholic place on earth, there is a very substantial "high days and holidays" attending section.
You do know the meaning of the word 'practicing', right?
The majority understates the level of change here, because it is over Lab + SNP + others, so Lab are much worse than a 102 majority in a two party system.
Yes, a 102 majority is simply 45 Tory gains. 40 from Labour and 5 from the SNP.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
A fudge would not be a betrayal! The vote was for leave, but no other details. No amount of pointing to what was discussed in the campaign will change the fact that the vote itself deliberately left the details to the government, so them picking an option we don't line will not be a betrayal so long as we still leave.
Blame the Tories - by not having a leadership contest they didn't publicly resolve what their preferred deal would be. As it is, well all probably be disappointed, but it still won't be a betrayal.
Seven years of immigration controls would be a huge concession to the UK on FoMofP, without (apparently) endangering British access to the single market (in goods, services and capital).
Realistically we might be able to cut immigration by half a million people across seven years.
That's not what the people voted for. Temporary controls on immigration won't wash.
No-one is clear what the people voted for as no-one defined Brexit precisely in terms of immigration or anything else. Indeed many of the Leavers even downplayed the immigration issue. I actually think people would be a lot less bothered by immigration if they felt they were doing well overall in the economy. It gets flagged up more because people's living standards have stagnated.
People are bothered by economic competition but low skilled workers that has enabled companies to keep down their total wage bill
International Spectator UPDATE: Erdogan says EU failed to uphold its end of refugee deal, has transferred only 2 million of 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) promised
Which is 2 billion too much.
million.
(2 million must look like taking the piss as well, its such an insultingly small amount that no one could have expected them to be pleased about it, or take it as a serious statement of intent)
Yes - misread it. I can understand Erdogan being angry about that.
Presumably it's just a rest transfer to make sure the bank details are right?
Some of you continue to place far too much emphasis on the benefits system as a means of controlling immigration. The majority of current immigration is not supported by benefits.
EU migrants account for around 7% of the workforce and claim around 15% of in-working benefits and a similar proportion of housing benefit iirc. Without that assistance how many do you think would still come?
"Tax Credits : 317,800 of these claimants were EU nationals.... and 6.8% of total claimants."
There are in excess of 2m EU citizens in the UK, so the percentage is small.
People largely come looking for jobs, not for benefits, but I do think it would mean a lot more single people arriving and far fewer families. That would certainly suit us better.
Yes, that's true.
There are a percentage in London where very generous benefit awards are being made on family grounds.
Deterring those arrivals would cut welfare costs with both benefits and associated services.
Single people are unlikely to be deterred, and employment rates among EU people are higher than UK nationals. Property sharing is very very common, almost equivalent to student housing.
It is previous waves of immigration that have really burdened the welfare system - large families combined with low employment rates.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
They're OK still - the issue was GIGO. But with boundary changes due people haven't been quoting seats so much.
Heres' today's poll giving a figure of 96 [made some guesses on Scotland]: http://bit.ly/2abs3ZT
Not yet confirmed that this atrocity is yet another terrorist attack, but if so, taking nuns hostage and murdering a priest in his own Church certainly ups the anti. This may have crossed the line for a normally tolerant society and a somewhat complacent authority.
Yes, if this is an Islamic terrorist attack on a Christian Church then I believe a line has been crossed.
This has made my angry in a way none of the others have. Killing priests in their church while saying Mass crosses a line.
This is not just an attack on a human being, it is an attack on God Himself.
I expect God can look after Himself, but if in doubt why not start a jihad about it?
Seriously if you think the church element makers this qualitatively different from running over small children with a lorry at a secular event, you are a disgusting numpty.
If I was in Church and someone tried to raid and desecrate the Blessed Sacrament I would do everything to stop them even if they killed me as a result.
You might think it is a piece of Bread but as far as I (and all Catholics and Russian and Greek Orthodox and Anglo Catholics and Coptics ) are concened it is the living Body of Jesus Christ Himself. Redeemer, Messiah and God within the Blessed Trinty.
Call a third of the worlds population sick if it makes you feel better but it changes nothing.
What those assassins have done is Blasphemy as well as Murder.
The majority understates the level of change here, because it is over Lab + SNP + others, so Lab are much worse than a 102 majority in a two party system.
Yes, a 102 majority is simply 45 Tory gains. 40 from Labour and 5 from the SNP.
Today's proceedings may or may not rule that Corbyn needed the nominations, but they won't confirm Smith as leader. If the Court sets aside the decision of the NEC, Corbyn will then have to be given an opportunity to get his nominations.
A COURT WILL NOT MAKE A DECISION FOR A REGULATORY BODY.
THEY MIGHT SAY THE PROCESS TO REACH A DECISION WAS FLAWED AND SHOULD TAKE PLACE AGAIN CORRECTLY.
The majority understates the level of change here, because it is over Lab + SNP + others, so Lab are much worse than a 102 majority in a two party system.
Yes, a 102 majority is simply 45 Tory gains. 40 from Labour and 5 from the SNP.
5 gains from the SNP seems implausible.
I put that in to see if malcolm was around. 3 looks more doable.
- free trade in goods - fairly good services access (plus some level of financial passporting) - a medium-term brake on migration, or an emergency lever to pull - a way of us continuing to input into single market rules - trade policy (I hope fairly independent) and agriculture/fisheries/regions back - continued payments into EU budget, lower than now but not quite as low as we might have wanted - quit EU and political structures, but we may decide to cooperate multilaterally
If that doesn't honk your horn, don't worry. Important part is that we're now tacking away from the EU and starting to chart our own destiny.
If we want a harder Brexit in 10-15 years time that option will be there (and much more economically safe) once we've built up other trade networks worldwide
I think that's pretty much where we are heading. Mass immigration is a problem we will have to solve by reforming the benefits system and making it tougher for low-wage and low-skilled migrants to be successful in the UK.
I am 100% clear here: the levels of net immigration absolutely must come down.
A million extra people in the UK every three years simply isn't sustainable and there is an overwhelming majority of the public who want a significant reduction.
Politicians must find a way of delivering this and I am absolutely not with the types of Tories who try and explain it away.
As I have said on numerous occasions, I think immigration at the levels we currently have is unsustainable and must come down to around 125-175k per year IMO, around half of what we currently have. This can be achieved by pricing out low paid immigrants from the UK by not offering housing benefits, tax credits or any kind of benefits for dependants (unemployment benefits for spouses or child benefits/daycare for children). If someone wants to come and make a life for themselves here then they must do it independently and not require the state to intervene. If they are unable to cut it then we should ask for them to return to their home nation, not give them unlimited assistance in the form of housing benefits and unemployment benefits after 90 days.
And what impact will that have on young, single people who are prepared to arrive who will take low wages to live in a bedsit?
I read a report in Liverpool paper yesterday that half of their rough sleepers are EU migrants, and Sky had an expose on some horror properties with up to 17 migrants living in a 2 bedroomed house.
But don't you realise all this is crucial for creating a modern and vibrant economy?
George Eaton Combined Labour-Lib Dem vote share in ICM poll is 35%. The centre-left has never been weaker.
That's assuming that the Lib-Dems are all left and that Labour is centre. Neither assumption is entirely with merit.
It's also excluding other centre-left parties like the SNP which surely are part and parcel of the centre-left and probably will form part of a centre-left rainbow coalition if/when the left gets back into power.
The consequences of Brexit will inevitably be that we will grow our trade with the rest of the world and at least the share of our trade with the EU will shrink. The reason so many countries are wanting to open trade negotiations with us is that in many cases they have been negotiating with the EU for more than decade without getting anywhere. A country that can simply say yes or even no will be a great relief.
Whether this results in the UK economy growing relative to the EU will be uncertain for some time. Given the levels of structural and other problems the EU has failure to do so will have very negative effects on our society. My expectation is that the UK will continue to grow slightly more quickly than the EU average, as it has done over the last 8 years inside the EU, but not by exciting margins.
My expectation is also that net migration will not decrease much. The world is more mobile than ever before and cutting yourself off from that is a recipe for economic failure. A UK speaking English, growing faster than the EU average and very open to international trade will remain a desirable objective for a lot of people.
In 10 years time membership of the single market may look a lot less significant than it is right now. But a transitional arrangement is still required.
Good post David, though there is more scope to cut immigration than you allow I think.
Not yet confirmed that this atrocity is yet another terrorist attack, but if so, taking nuns hostage and murdering a priest in his own Church certainly ups the anti. This may have crossed the line for a normally tolerant society and a somewhat complacent authority.
Yes, if this is an Islamic terrorist attack on a Christian Church then I believe a line has been crossed.
This has made my angry in a way none of the others have. Killing priests in their church while saying Mass crosses a line.
This is not just an attack on a human being, it is an attack on God Himself.
I expect God can look after Himself, but if in doubt why not start a jihad about it?
Seriously if you think the church element makers this qualitatively different from running over small children with a lorry at a secular event, you are a disgusting numpty.
I think there is a difference - at least in his I react - which is an odd feeling!
In the case the murderer went into the church and selected one individual from a small group to kill. With the lorry or a mall shooting there is an element of randomness involved when it comes to individual victims (not, obviously, to detract from the evil of the macro event)
"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.
Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.
The men’s motives are still unknown."
Right.
Isn't Daesh the insulting term for ISIS?
I wouldn't assume these people are that knowledgeable.
They know that large proportion of idiots going to fight for IS have very poor understanding of the Koran....but IS don't care, they just tell them to go and blow themselves up.
Also, I believe in France they prefer on the "so called" Islamic State always being reported as Daesh. So they might well have shouted we are from IS, and the French media will report it as saying they are to do with Daesh.
"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.
Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.
The men’s motives are still unknown."
Right.
Isn't Daesh the insulting term for ISIS?
I read a piece essentially mocking the idea ISIS really hates the term Daesh, and in fact references that its opponents call it that in their own publications, noting the ridiculousness of thinking they care what they are called. Obviously I've not read ISIS publications myself to say if that is true, but I doubt they actually care, and if these were local idiots 'inspired' by ISIS, used to hearing them referred to as Daesh in local media, they might be used to using the term themselves.
"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.
Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.
The men’s motives are still unknown."
Right.
How very odd.
Its pretty unlikely that anyone really associated with ISIS will have shouted Daesh, since the very reason that terms is used is because ISIS are known to despise it.
Kinda of blows a hole in the likes of Polly's arguments that majority of the population wants a lefty "progressive" approach.
Polly like too many people on the left doesn't seem to know very much about Britain. They confuse their left-leaning neighbours, friends, colleagues and Twitter followers with the UK as a whole.
Why are we giving this murdering anti-democratic islamist despot money?
Why are the west doing deals with him?
Putin? this is our real enemy, right here. This is the real threat to world stability.
Becauae if we don't pay up he has said he will flood Germany with machete and bomb wielding terrorists.
A robust leader would inform him that if he did they would declare war on him and use all neccesary means.
Which would make the situation far worse as other civilians join the flow and scramble to get out of the way. I'm afraid this is not something as easily resolved. Merkel's folly indeed.
As I have said on numerous occasions, I think immigration at the levels we currently have is unsustainable and must come down to around 125-175k per year IMO, around half of what we currently have. This can be achieved by pricing out low paid immigrants from the UK by not offering housing benefits, tax credits or any kind of benefits for dependants (unemployment benefits for spouses or child benefits/daycare for children). If someone wants to come and make a life for themselves here then they must do it independently and not require the state to intervene. If they are unable to cut it then we should ask for them to return to their home nation, not give them unlimited assistance in the form of housing benefits and unemployment benefits after 90 days.
And what impact will that have on young, single people who are prepared to arrive who will take low wages to live in a bedsit?
Hopefully none. Anyone with that sort of work ethic, that is willing to make sacrifices in order to build themselves a better life, without any support from the state at all ... is a very welcome addition to the nation.
One other word of warning...remember David S, was supposed to have shouted racist / right wing sounding stuff, which got all those trying to tie it to Brevik excited...and in reality it was members of the public who called him a f##king foreigner / f##king Turk to which he replied I am German.
The majority understates the level of change here, because it is over Lab + SNP + others, so Lab are much worse than a 102 majority in a two party system.
Yes, a 102 majority is simply 45 Tory gains. 40 from Labour and 5 from the SNP.
5 gains from the SNP seems implausible.
I put that in to see if malcolm was around. 3 looks more doable.
Biggest Con lead in govt since what was almost certainly a single rogue poll in Jan 1991. The last reliable poll (i.e. where others at the same time produced similar results) with a lead on that scale was in Oct 1987.
Kinda of blows a hole in the likes of Polly's arguments that majority of the population wants a lefty "progressive" approach.
Polly like too many people on the left doesn't seem to know very much about Britain. They confuse their left-leaning neighbours, friends, colleagues and Twitter followers with the UK as a whole.
It is always fun to watch Polly when she turns up for election coverage and shocked at how the plebs have voted. The Boris first victory was especially fun, you could just see her mind going BUT BUT BUT everybody I know thinks Boris is a racist idiot.
It would make deselection less of an issue, that is for sure.
But it is unbelievable that we still have boundaries that are now nearly 20 years out of date. Surely May should be prioritising getting that sorted. It was ridiculous that it was not sorted for 2015.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
They're OK still - the issue was GIGO. But with boundary changes due people haven't been quoting seats so much.
Heres' today's poll giving a figure of 96 [made some guesses on Scotland]: http://bit.ly/2abs3ZT
If I was in Church and someone tried to raid and desecrate the Blessed Sacrament I would do everything to stop them even if they killed me as a result.
What if the only way to stop them was to kill them?
You might think it is a piece of Bread but as far as I (and all Catholics and Russian and Greek Orthodox and Anglo Catholics and Coptics ) are concened it is the living Body of Jesus Christ Himself. Redeemer, Messiah and God within the Blessed Trinty.
And why would God mind what happens to that body when it takes the form of a piece of bread?
Call a third of the worlds population sick if it makes you feel better but it changes nothing.
What those assassins have done is Blasphemy as well as Murder.
Your religious beliefs cause you to label it as that. Others' religious beliefs cause them to apply a similar label to the depiction of Mohammed in a painting.
I'm fine with you and them having those views.
But how about everyone stops acting like Hell's Angels or Bloods and Crips, imposing an absolute rule that gang colours must not be disrespected and that those who insult their colours have committed the crime of crimes?
Biggest Con lead in govt since what was almost certainly a single rogue poll in Jan 1991. The last reliable poll (i.e. where others at the same time produced similar results) with a lead on that scale was in Oct 1987.
One other word of warning...remember David S, was supposed to have shouted racist / right wing sounding stuff, which got all those trying to tie it to Brevik excited...and in reality it was members of the public who called him a f##king foreigner / f##king Turk to which he replied I am German.
Still can't beat that BBC headline that almost implied that the bomber in Ansbach was the victim of an attack.
As I have said on numerous occasions, I think immigration at the levels we currently have is unsustainable and must come down to around 125-175k per year IMO, around half of what we currently have. This can be achieved by pricing out low paid immigrants from the UK by not offering housing benefits, tax credits or any kind of benefits for dependants (unemployment benefits for spouses or child benefits/daycare for children). If someone wants to come and make a life for themselves here then they must do it independently and not require the state to intervene. If they are unable to cut it then we should ask for them to return to their home nation, not give them unlimited assistance in the form of housing benefits and unemployment benefits after 90 days.
And what impact will that have on young, single people who are prepared to arrive who will take low wages to live in a bedsit?
I read a report in Liverpool paper yesterday that half of their rough sleepers are EU migrants, and Sky had an expose on some horror properties with up to 17 migrants living in a 2 bedroomed house.
But don't you realise all this is crucial for creating a modern and vibrant economy?
Cheap labour was the solution in the 1990's and beyond - it won't be for much longer..
In 2020 and beyond it will be finding jobs for people to do as the automated revolution takes place....
Suzanne Evans’ “major announcement” this morning was that she is endorsing councillor Lisa Duffy for UKIP leader.
I know nothing of UKIP politics, but who the f##k is Lisa Duffy? The only Mrs Duffy I have heard of don't like foreigners much either, but I am fairly certain we aren't talking about the same one.
I think we need to use Occam's razor here, rhe likelihood is that they said IS or ISIS and the French press are reporting it as Daesh because that's what they do.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
The (Baxter) Electoral calculus POLLS TO SEAT part of the model worked well for 2015:
CON LAB LIB UKIP Green SNP Plaid N.Ire Predicted 322 240 10 1 1 55 3 18 Seat Error +9 -8 -2 0 0 +1 0 0
Suzanne Evans’ “major announcement” this morning was that she is endorsing councillor Lisa Duffy for UKIP leader.
I know nothing of UKIP politics, but who the f##k is Lisa Duffy? The only Mrs Duffy I have heard of don't like foreigners much either, but I am fairly certain we aren't talking about the same one.
UKIP needed "a clean break from the past" to become more like a political party than "just a rugby club on tour".
"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.
Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.
The men’s motives are still unknown."
Right.
If that's true, then it surely isn't Daesh, as Daesh hate being called Daesh.
Or so it is stated.
Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.
Kinda of blows a hole in the likes of Polly's arguments that majority of the population wants a lefty "progressive" approach.
Polly like too many people on the left doesn't seem to know very much about Britain. They confuse their left-leaning neighbours, friends, colleagues and Twitter followers with the UK as a whole.
It is always fun to watch Polly when she turns up for election coverage and shocked at how the plebs have voted. The Boris first victory was especially fun, you could just see her mind going BUT BUT BUT everybody I know thinks Boris is a racist idiot.
I was surprised not to see Polly in a BBC studio for the result of the referendum, it must have been a first for over a decade. Fortunately the shocked countenance on her face at every other major political event has been recorded for prosperity.
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
They're OK still - the issue was GIGO. But with boundary changes due people haven't been quoting seats so much.
Heres' today's poll giving a figure of 96 [made some guesses on Scotland]: http://bit.ly/2abs3ZT
I think we need to use Occam's razor here, rhe likelihood is that they said IS or ISIS and the French press are reporting it as Daesh because that's what they do.
This...as I stated below. Just as the BBC insist on them being called the "So Called Islamic State", rather than Daesh, or IS, or ISIS...French politicians and media report them overwhelmingly as Daesh. So much so, I remember hearing a number of French media on BBC giving comment after Paris attack and the BBC had to keep butting in and saying "So Called Islamic State" after they have opinions on Daesh.
Suzanne Evans’ “major announcement” this morning was that she is endorsing councillor Lisa Duffy for UKIP leader.
I know nothing of UKIP politics, but who the f##k is Lisa Duffy? The only Mrs Duffy I have heard of don't like foreigners much either, but I am fairly certain we aren't talking about the same one.
Duffy is 20/1 with Corals and 16/1 with Betfair Sportsbook. I'm on!
Today's proceedings may or may not rule that Corbyn needed the nominations, but they won't confirm Smith as leader. If the Court sets aside the decision of the NEC, Corbyn will then have to be given an opportunity to get his nominations.
A COURT WILL NOT MAKE A DECISION FOR A REGULATORY BODY.
THEY MIGHT SAY THE PROCESS TO REACH A DECISION WAS FLAWED AND SHOULD TAKE PLACE AGAIN CORRECTLY.
I think we need to use Occam's razor here, rhe likelihood is that they said IS or ISIS and the French press are reporting it as Daesh because that's what they do.
Or "the so-called Islamic State group"? Had they been subject to long-term indoctrination, they might well have said "Khilafa".
What if they were pair of Walts going postal, subject to a copycat effect?
Question. What ever happened to those seat predictors like Baxter that were so in vogue a few years ago? At one time everyone on here was using them; now they're barely mentioned at all. I take it they're discredited.
They're OK still - the issue was GIGO. But with boundary changes due people haven't been quoting seats so much.
Heres' today's poll giving a figure of 96 [made some guesses on Scotland]: http://bit.ly/2abs3ZT
"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.
Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.
The men’s motives are still unknown."
Right.
If that's true, then it surely isn't Daesh, as Daesh hate being called Daesh.
Or so it is stated.
Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.
Whoever thought of leaving out the indefinite article to make them sound more scary probably thinks he's a genius of psychological warfare. Perhaps even surpassing Churchill when he spoke of "Quislings".
Normal translation rules would suggest referring to Daesh as "Iraq and the Levant". But that would underline that for all their calling themselves the Caliphate, with its apocalyptic connotations, they nonetheless adopt a geographical referent, as do almost all of the other regimes in the world. Think borders. And they are a state, whether anyone likes it or not.
They have said in their publication "Dabiq" that they want to a deal with the west, have a kind of armistice. Those such as Jonathan Powell favour talking with them. The great powers probably already are talking with them.
If Facebook, Youtube, Google and Twitter weren't seen as being as natural as the mountains, more people might query the sense of distributing the enemy's propaganda for them.
"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.
Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.
The men’s motives are still unknown."
Right.
Isn't Daesh the insulting term for ISIS?
I read a piece essentially mocking the idea ISIS really hates the term Daesh, and in fact references that its opponents call it that in their own publications, noting the ridiculousness of thinking they care what they are called. Obviously I've not read ISIS publications myself to say if that is true, but I doubt they actually care, and if these were local idiots 'inspired' by ISIS, used to hearing them referred to as Daesh in local media, they might be used to using the term themselves.
I found this apparently learned article on the subject, which is long but interesting, I hadn't seen the site before, but it might reward a closer look
Comments
(some other media saying 86 year old).
The referendum question couldn't put those options to the electorate; it's not in the UK's gift to do so.
Or defend its borders with thousands of troops. Or impose economic sanctions.
And send Turkish workers back home.
We are being far too lenient with Erdogan and Turkey.
It is estimated that between 41% and 88% of France's population is Catholic, with the higher figure including lapsed Catholics and Catholic atheists
Lots of religious people don't attend church that regularly, even in this country (the Philippines) probably the most catholic place on earth, there is a very substantial "high days and holidays" attending section.
Seriously if you think the church element makers this qualitatively different from running over small children with a lorry at a secular event, you are a disgusting numpty.
@Conservatives highest @ICMResearch poll standing since Oct 09 and @UKLabour lowest since same poll. Tables at bit.ly/1SWVx9H
The copycat effect is why newspapers don't publish details of methods people use to commit suicide. They know of the "Werther effect", named after the book by Goethe. Robert Cialdini in his famous book Influence notes how the incidence of plane crashes rises after the widespread reporting of a suicide.
There's an obvious copycat effect going on right now.
A lot of these horrendous murders are not the result of years of fiendish work by Daesh agent-runners who work in a structure which has its tentacles everywhere. They are the actions of sick scum who have decapitation videos stored on their phones and whose only connection with real Islam is that they believe they're going to heaven. The Munich killer was obsessed with Anders Breivik, who calls himself a "Christian". The teenage Bavaria killer shouted "I'm going to f*** you, b****" at a woman he attacked once he'd left the train on which he'd attacked the other people. The Nice killer was a pork-eating alcohol drinker who never prayed, at least not until a few days before he murdered so many people on the promenade. (Had he played a lot of Grand Theft Auto?) They were all psychos. You have to be a psycho to do actions like theirs, or to commit the murder in the Normandy church. There was something about western society that made it incapable of seriously considering the psychopathic aspect of Breivik's actions. The same is true of these actions by "Muslims".
Men are going postal, with an "Islamic" twist, at only a few days' notice.
Which is not to say that Daesh doesn't carry out propaganda. They do. There's an organisation called SITE in the US which stamps their white propaganda as genuine and suitable for mass distribution. Daesh take a leaf out of the book of the Mongols: depress the enemy by impressing them with how brutal you are.
It's fanned by social media and by media tout court.
Today's poll - CON 43 LAB 27
1983 Election - CON 42.4 LAB 27.6
Granted, Farron is having real trouble being noticed, and there's no other options, but Clegg is not the answer.
Presumably it's just a rest transfer to make sure the bank details are right?
There are a percentage in London where very generous benefit awards are being made on family grounds.
Deterring those arrivals would cut welfare costs with both benefits and associated services.
Single people are unlikely to be deterred, and employment rates among EU people are higher than UK nationals. Property sharing is very very common, almost equivalent to student housing.
It is previous waves of immigration that have really burdened the welfare system - large families combined with low employment rates.
Heres' today's poll giving a figure of 96 [made some guesses on Scotland]: http://bit.ly/2abs3ZT
You might think it is a piece of Bread but as far as I (and all Catholics and Russian and Greek Orthodox and Anglo Catholics and Coptics ) are concened it is the living Body of Jesus Christ Himself. Redeemer, Messiah and God within the Blessed Trinty.
Call a third of the worlds population sick if it makes you feel better but it changes nothing.
What those assassins have done is Blasphemy as well as Murder.
Combined Labour-Lib Dem vote share in ICM poll is 35%. The centre-left has never been weaker.
THEY MIGHT SAY THE PROCESS TO REACH A DECISION WAS FLAWED AND SHOULD TAKE PLACE AGAIN CORRECTLY.
It's also excluding other centre-left parties like the SNP which surely are part and parcel of the centre-left and probably will form part of a centre-left rainbow coalition if/when the left gets back into power.
In the case the murderer went into the church and selected one individual from a small group to kill. With the lorry or a mall shooting there is an element of randomness involved when it comes to individual victims (not, obviously, to detract from the evil of the macro event)
Also, I believe in France they prefer on the "so called" Islamic State always being reported as Daesh. So they might well have shouted we are from IS, and the French media will report it as saying they are to do with Daesh.
Its pretty unlikely that anyone really associated with ISIS will have shouted Daesh, since the very reason that terms is used is because ISIS are known to despise it.
But it is unbelievable that we still have boundaries that are now nearly 20 years out of date. Surely May should be prioritising getting that sorted. It was ridiculous that it was not sorted for 2015.
I'm fine with you and them having those views.
But how about everyone stops acting like Hell's Angels or Bloods and Crips, imposing an absolute rule that gang colours must not be disrespected and that those who insult their colours have committed the crime of crimes?
In 2020 and beyond it will be finding jobs for people to do as the automated revolution takes place....
Germany's is about 60,000
Might be a brave move.
I know nothing of UKIP politics, but who the f##k is Lisa Duffy? The only Mrs Duffy I have heard of don't like foreigners much either, but I am fairly certain we aren't talking about the same one.
Sid Ahmed Ghlam, who was arrested in April 2015, revealed that he had plans to attack a church in Villejuif near #Paris
But Daesh recruitment isn't by traditional methods. We're in Facebook world now.
See my post below about the copycat effect, and about men going Islamo-postal.
CON LAB LIB UKIP Green SNP Plaid N.Ire
Predicted 322 240 10 1 1 55 3 18
Seat Error +9 -8 -2 0 0 +1 0 0
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_15errors.html
Main source of the error was the raw polling data.
NEW THREAD ABOUT THE STONKING POLL LEAD
Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.
Last price matched on Betfair Exchange is 8.0.
What if they were pair of Walts going postal, subject to a copycat effect?
Normal translation rules would suggest referring to Daesh as "Iraq and the Levant". But that would underline that for all their calling themselves the Caliphate, with its apocalyptic connotations, they nonetheless adopt a geographical referent, as do almost all of the other regimes in the world. Think borders. And they are a state, whether anyone likes it or not.
They have said in their publication "Dabiq" that they want to a deal with the west, have a kind of armistice. Those such as Jonathan Powell favour talking with them. The great powers probably already are talking with them.
If Facebook, Youtube, Google and Twitter weren't seen as being as natural as the mountains, more people might query the sense of distributing the enemy's propaganda for them.
https://www.freewordcentre.com/explore/daesh-isis-media-alice-guthrie