Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
The demographics have moved further towards the Dems even since 2012.
My belief - and it could be wrong - is that Trump has put New Mexico and Nevada out of reach. He stands a good chance in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Jersey, which might make it all work. I suspect he'll fall short in Florida.
Losing Florida would be a hammer blow for Trump. Wisconsin and New Jersey are most unlikely and even if you add Ohio, Pennsylvania and Iowa for Trump, he still falls short 288/250.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal. Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is wording and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
I suspect hispanics and blacks wont vote for Trump is as ludicrous a sentiment as asians and blacks in the UK wont vote Brexit was.
Would you say that Brexiteers on PB are predominantly also Trump supporters?
I voted Brexit and I wouldn't vote Trump even if meant a weekend with Kim Kardashian sat on my face.
''The crippling loss of influence with Slovenia.''
If I was the EU, I'd insist on a full divorce. With the brexit lite arrangement, Britain is only going to get stronger economically relative to most of the rest, yet will still retain its independence.
The German auto industry cannot afford a full divorce.
I don't think that's actually true. Remember that very few cars are made solely in the UK (Nissan and a few other things).
If we left and went to WTO, the German car industry would be disadvantaged relative to indigenous car production. But our indihenous production would be disadvantaged in the EU. Furthermore, a lot of Fords, GMs, Toyotas, etc. are made in the EU. So, the major consequence of WTO would be that cars in general would probably be quite a bit more expensive.
Edit to add: what I mean is, yes, the German car industry would be affected, but so would a bunch of other car makers. And the major consequence would be a smaller UK car market as the price of cars would be generally higher.
I was in my local BMW last Saturday and it was FULL of people. I tell you even a 10% tariff will make a small dent to their exports to the UK. Which other car could I buy ? Mercedes ? Audi ? You get the drift.
Those who go on talking about the EU trade surplus forget one simple fact: EU exports to the UK is about 3% of the EU GDP. UK exports to the EU is about 10% of our GDP.
Plus many of the East Europeans do not much exports to the UK, but FoM is important to them. They will want their pound of flesh.
The Germans have downgraded their auto-exports expectation from 5% growth to a 1% fall this year. Their internal feedback is of a 30% reduction in UK footfall.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
Ninety fucking two fucking per cent!
They wont get that. Many Black people are innately conservative and others will sit on their hands in disillusionment as obama did seemingly little.
''The crippling loss of influence with Slovenia.''
If I was the EU, I'd insist on a full divorce. With the brexit lite arrangement, Britain is only going to get stronger economically relative to most of the rest, yet will still retain its independence.
The German auto industry cannot afford a full divorce.
I don't think that's actually true. Remember that very few cars are made solely in the UK (Nissan and a few other things).
If we left and went to WTO, the German car industry would be disadvantaged relative to indigenous car production. But our indihenous production would be disadvantaged in the EU. Furthermore, a lot of Fords, GMs, Toyotas, etc. are made in the EU. So, the major consequence of WTO would be that cars in general would probably be quite a bit more expensive.
Edit to add: what I mean is, yes, the German car industry would be affected, but so would a bunch of other car makers. And the major consequence would be a smaller UK car market as the price of cars would be generally higher.
I was in my local BMW last Saturday and it was FULL of people. I tell you even a 10% tariff will make a small dent to their exports to the UK. Which other car could I buy ? Mercedes ? Audi ? You get the drift.
Those who go on talking about the EU trade surplus forget one simple fact: EU exports to the UK is about 3% of the EU GDP. UK exports to the EU is about 10% of our GDP.
Plus many of the East Europeans do not much exports to the UK, but FoM is important to them. They will want their pound of flesh.
The Germans have downgraded their auto-exports expectation from 5% growth to a 1% fall this year. Their internal feedback is of a 30% reduction in UK footfall.
Has anyone watched the BBC iplayer Panorama piece from Bakersfield, California? Re the rise of Trump?
Interesting stuff. Bakersfield is far, far from the America dream. 100 miles from LA but one trillion miles from gorgeous palm-lined boulevards of WeHo.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
The demographics have moved further towards the Dems even since 2012.
Nunu, are you Isam ?
Seriously think Hillary will win same number of African Americans as Obama then you are deluded, as I said there is an enthusiasm problem for Hillary that means they will not turn out in the same numbers for Hillary they will stay at home. Many people believe Trump will win more African Americans than any other Republican, which is not hard but he only needs a small swing in his favour .
No I'm not isam, I hate Trump, but everyone is being really complacent, hmmm when has that happened before?
'EEA + FoM will win 60% - 40%. Hannan and Boris will be on our side.'
Having a laugh or just wishful thinking ?
You must have missed the key concern during the referendum campaign.
Possibly immigration WAS the main concern - although polls showed the biggest reason for voting leave was the ability to make our own decisions. I would guess there are at least 20% of Leavers - probably more - who aren't that bothered about FoM. Add these to the Remainers, all but the most petulant of whom would be expected to support such a deal against an alternative of a WTO deal, and you get your 60%+.
I'm not personally that bothered by FoM. I think objectively speaking that migration of low paid workers to take low paid work that is unviable without benefits or living four to a bedsit needs sorting but the seven years moratorium that seems to be on offer gives us plenty of time to think through what to do.
What that will be will depend on how successful we are in RoW trade viz european trade and whether the immigration is still an issue then.
As - even with FoM - there will be no in-work benefits for migrants, one would expect there to be significantly fewer of them even in an EFTA/EEA scenario.
This is the point everyone's missing. There's FoM under the EU and FoM outside the EU, and they're not the same.
Outside, we don't need to pay tax credits and housing benefit to Romanian Big Issue sellers and Polish car washers - yet we still have "Freedom of Movement" in that anyone from the EEA can come and live and work in the UK if they wish without a visa.
The problem isn't really Trump. He's a buffoon. The problem is that Hillary is an awful candidate. Given that the Sanders crowd seem incredibly alienated by the e-mail scandal, I just don't see her enjoying full-throated support.
Trump wants to build a wall and make America great again; Hillary wants to restructure student loans or some such technomancy. Dull and uninspiring.
'EEA + FoM will win 60% - 40%. Hannan and Boris will be on our side.'
Having a laugh or just wishful thinking ?
You must have missed the key concern during the referendum campaign.
Possibly immigration WAS the main concern - although polls showed the biggest reason for voting leave was the ability to make our own decisions. I would guess there are at least 20% of Leavers - probably more - who aren't that bothered about FoM. Add these to the Remainers, all but the most petulant of whom would be expected to support such a deal against an alternative of a WTO deal, and you get your 60%+.
I'm not personally that bothered by FoM. I think objectively speaking that migration of low paid workers to take low paid work that is unviable without benefits or living four to a bedsit needs sorting but the seven years moratorium that seems to be on offer gives us plenty of time to think through what to do.
What that will be will depend on how successful we are in RoW trade viz european trade and whether the immigration is still an issue then.
As - even with FoM - there will be no in-work benefits for migrants, one would expect there to be significantly fewer of them even in an EFTA/EEA scenario.
This is the point everyone's missing. There's FoM under the EU and FoM outside the EU, and they're not the same.
Outside, we don't need to pay tax credits and housing benefit to Romanian Big Issue sellers and Polish car washers - yet we still have "Freedom of Movement" in that anyone from the EEA can come and live and work in the UK if they wish without a visa.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal. Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is wording and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
I suspect hispanics and blacks wont vote for Trump is as ludicrous a sentiment as asians and blacks in the UK wont vote Brexit was.
The question is not: will there be Hispanic and Black Trump voters? but will - as a result of his lazy caricatures - Trump get a smaller share of the Hispanic and Black vote than he might have?
My belief - and it could be wrong - is that Trump has put New Mexico and Nevada out of reach. He stands a good chance in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Jersey, which might make it all work. I suspect he'll fall short in Florida.
I cannot see him win in NJ and PA. New Jersey will need over 8% swing compared to 2012. PA will need close to 3%.
Why would those WWC who voted for Obama not vote for Hillary Clinton ? Ohio was close, so it is difficult to argue.
What makes you so sure about Florida ?
I don't think swing magnitudes are necessarily that relevant. Whoever wins, the shape of the map is going to change.
They wont get that. Many Black people are innately conservative and others will sit on their hands in disillusionment as obama did seemingly little.
Blacks have been voting 90% plus for Dem POTUS for decades. Why would they now start falling over themselves for Trump?
You can't compare Trump to any other GOP candidate. They won't fall over themselves to vote for him but his message of bad trade deals costing well paid manufacturing jobs will resonate, only about 2% need to sit on their hands for Hillary to lose and if anyone can make them stay at home its her. The wrong candidate at the wrong time.
Has anyone watched the BBC iplayer Panorama piece from Bakersfield, California? Re the rise of Trump?
Interesting stuff. Bakersfield is far, far from the America dream. 100 miles from LA but one trillion miles from gorgeous palm-lined boulevards of WeHo.
ps - is the reporter Hillary Andersson ill?
It was a very revealing documentary. Worth catching.
'EEA + FoM will win 60% - 40%. Hannan and Boris will be on our side.'
Having a laugh or just wishful thinking ?
You must have missed the key concern during the referendum campaign.
Possibly immigration WAS the main concern - although polls showed the biggest reason for voting leave was the ability to make our own decisions. I would guess there are at least 20% of Leavers - probably more - who aren't that bothered about FoM. Add these to the Remainers, all but the most petulant of whom would be expected to support such a deal against an alternative of a WTO deal, and you get your 60%+.
Does potentially mean 40% for Steve Woolfe's merry men though.
Whatever agreement is reached between the UK and the EU has to be agreed by the greatest possible proportion of the country. We have decided on Exit, and it incumbent on the government to find the version of Exit that is best for the economy, and satisfies the greatest number of people possible. This is not about 51% of 51%; this is about finding something acceptable to 65% of all the the people.
Personally I don't believe the number "wanting" remain was anything close to 48%, there was a large chunk of very reluctant remainers in there that were either loyal to the government, or convinced by Project Fear, with the FTSE and FTSE250 both well above where they were pre-BrExit the doom and gloom is going to be a pretty hard sell now.
Not interested in selling, or being sold, anything - just give me the facts. "Brexit causes dramatic drop in UK economy, data suggests" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
Just stated reading the thread. A couple of points:
1) Yes, Trump has gotten a 'bounce' out of the GOP Convention. It's entirely reasonable to expect that Clinton will get a similar result. So viewing polls before about 2 weeks after the conventions finish will not yield a realistic view on how the candidates are really doing.
2) The first debate is on 9/26 at Hofstra. Trump has never debated 1 on 1 before, and Clinton is notoriously bad at thinking on her feet. The debates will have a big effect on the polls.
3) The DNC email leaks. The Dems are frantically trying to tie Trump into the Russians into the hacking etc etc. Any, all, or none of that may be true. I have no idea. But none of that matters. That the emails are genuine is not disputed, and it is the contents of the emails that matters, not how they were obtained. This is not a court of law with rules of evidence.
4) It has been some time since Clinton's victory is a 'foregone conclusion'
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
Ninety fucking two fucking per cent!
And her genius campaign video attacking Trump featured a black man at the RNC saying that Hillary should swap her pantsuit for an orange jumpsuit.
They wont get that. Many Black people are innately conservative and others will sit on their hands in disillusionment as obama did seemingly little.
Blacks have been voting 90% plus for Dem POTUS for decades. Why would they now start falling over themselves for Trump?
And Scots had been voting for Labour donkeys for decades.
Complacency gets you in the end. The only question is when, and Trump is the kind of unpredictable candidate who will not be afraid to challenge Clinton on territory she won't expect to fight on.
" A plurality of Trump voters- 38%- also agree with Carson's assertion that Clinton has ties to Lucifer compared to just 35% who think that's not the case."
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
Whether that will result in Hilary getting their vote remains to be seen.
I guess the big unknown in all this is who will be standing as indrpendents.
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
This voting your conscience is a load of bs that won't cost Trump even one in a hundred votes as at the end of the day it is a choice between Trump and Hillary. They will go for Trump 99 times out of hundred.
I don't think swing magnitudes are necessarily that relevant. Whoever wins, the shape of the map is going to change.
Or possibly not ....
There's a perfectly reasonable analysis that maintains the 2012 map. Florida edges further blue as does Virginia. Arizona too but not enough to flip. Trump does better that Romney across the rust belt but not enough to flip red.
North Carolina might be the joker. Back to blue as in 08.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
Ninety fucking two fucking per cent!
And her genius campaign video attacking Trump featured a black man at the RNC saying that Hillary should swap her pantsuit for an orange jumpsuit.
That ad is brilliant. It might as well have been put together by Trump, unless Hillary is only planning on showing it to those on Twitter who will vote for her anyway.
'EEA + FoM will win 60% - 40%. Hannan and Boris will be on our side.'
Having a laugh or just wishful thinking ?
You must have missed the key concern during the referendum campaign.
Possibly immigration WAS the main concern - although polls showed the biggest reason for voting leave was the ability to make our own decisions. I would guess there are at least 20% of Leavers - probably more - who aren't that bothered about FoM. Add these to the Remainers, all but the most petulant of whom would be expected to support such a deal against an alternative of a WTO deal, and you get your 60%+.
I'm not personally that bothered by FoM. I think objectively speaking that migration of low paid workers to take low paid work that is unviable without benefits or living four to a bedsit needs sorting but the seven years moratorium that seems to be on offer gives us plenty of time to think through what to do.
What that will be will depend on how successful we are in RoW trade viz european trade and whether the immigration is still an issue then.
As - even with FoM - there will be no in-work benefits for migrants, one would expect there to be significantly fewer of them even in an EFTA/EEA scenario.
This is the point everyone's missing. There's FoM under the EU and FoM outside the EU, and they're not the same.
Outside, we don't need to pay tax credits and housing benefit to Romanian Big Issue sellers and Polish car washers - yet we still have "Freedom of Movement" in that anyone from the EEA can come and live and work in the UK if they wish without a visa.
Unfortunately that is not correct. We would still have to pay tax credits and housing benefit ton"self employed" big issue sellers. The clause for free movement is absolutely identical in the EEA as it in the EU. We must reform our benefits system in the UK by making it contributory and axing tax credits.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
This voting your conscience is a load of bs that won't cost Trump even one in a hundred votes as at the end of the day it is a choice between Trump and Hillary. They will go for Trump 99 times out of hundred.
Fine, if you believe that then there is no point to a discussion. The election is his.
And Scots had been voting for Labour donkeys for decades.
Complacency gets you in the end. The only question is when, and Trump is the kind of unpredictable candidate who will not be afraid to challenge Clinton on territory she won't expect to fight on.
There is zero evidence of AA moving to Trump whereas there was sustained evidence that the SNP were damaging SLAB hugely.
They wont get that. Many Black people are innately conservative and others will sit on their hands in disillusionment as obama did seemingly little.
Blacks have been voting 90% plus for Dem POTUS for decades. Why would they now start falling over themselves for Trump?
And Scots had been voting for Labour donkeys for decades.
Complacency gets you in the end. The only question is when, and Trump is the kind of unpredictable candidate who will not be afraid to challenge Clinton on territory she won't expect to fight on.
Black people will note that he intimated the first black president achieved said distinction through lies and conspiracies.
The problem isn't really Trump. He's a buffoon. The problem is that Hillary is an awful candidate. Given that the Sanders crowd seem incredibly alienated by the e-mail scandal, I just don't see her enjoying full-throated support. Trump wants to build a wall and make America great again; Hillary wants to restructure student loans or some such technomancy. Dull and uninspiring.
Well yes, but it's an Emperor's new clothes thing. Trump is just playing on the obvious. He's not even doing it well.
'EEA + FoM will win 60% - 40%. Hannan and Boris will be on our side.'
Having a laugh or just wishful thinking ?
You must have missed the key concern during the referendum campaign.
Possibly immigration WAS the main concern - although polls showed the biggest reason for voting leave was the ability to make our own decisions. I would guess there are at least 20% of Leavers - probably more - who aren't that bothered about FoM. Add these to the Remainers, all but the most petulant of whom would be expected to support such a deal against an alternative of a WTO deal, and you get your 60%+.
I'm not personally that bothered by FoM. I think objectively speaking that migration of low paid workers to take low paid work that is unviable without benefits or living four to a bedsit needs sorting but the seven years moratorium that seems to be on offer gives us plenty of time to think through what to do.
What that will be will depend on how successful we are in RoW trade viz european trade and whether the immigration is still an issue then.
As - even with FoM - there will be no in-work benefits for migrants, one would expect there to be significantly fewer of them even in an EFTA/EEA scenario.
This is the point everyone's missing. There's FoM under the EU and FoM outside the EU, and they're not the same.
Outside, we don't need to pay tax credits and housing benefit to Romanian Big Issue sellers and Polish car washers - yet we still have "Freedom of Movement" in that anyone from the EEA can come and live and work in the UK if they wish without a visa.
Unfortunately that is not correct. We would still have to pay tax credits and housing benefit ton"self employed" big issue sellers. The clause for free movement is absolutely identical in the EEA as it in the EU. We must reform our benefits system in the UK by making it contributory and axing tax credits.
Robert has been saying the opposite, that discrimination on the basis of nationality is allowed for in work benefits under the EEA.
That's doesn't mean of course that we shouldn't get rid of the mess that is tax credits, but that discussion should be an internal matter for the UK government.
And Scots had been voting for Labour donkeys for decades.
Complacency gets you in the end. The only question is when, and Trump is the kind of unpredictable candidate who will not be afraid to challenge Clinton on territory she won't expect to fight on.
There is zero evidence of AA moving to Trump whereas there was sustained evidence that the SNP were damaging SLAB hugely.
Big question is whether Clinton will keep the higher AA turnout that Obama managed or will it drop back a bit.
And Scots had been voting for Labour donkeys for decades.
Complacency gets you in the end. The only question is when, and Trump is the kind of unpredictable candidate who will not be afraid to challenge Clinton on territory she won't expect to fight on.
There is zero evidence of AA moving to Trump whereas there was sustained evidence that the SNP were damaging SLAB hugely.
More worryingly for your prediction, there is zero evidence that Trump has yet found his ceiling.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Except all the polling says that's bollocks and his wall talk is having an affect on Florida. He has the lowest ever poll numbers amongst Cuban Americans for a Republican.
My belief - and it could be wrong - is that Trump has put New Mexico and Nevada out of reach. He stands a good chance in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Jersey, which might make it all work. I suspect he'll fall short in Florida.
Losing Florida would be a hammer blow for Trump. Wisconsin and New Jersey are most unlikely and even if you add Ohio, Pennsylvania and Iowa for Trump, he still falls short 288/250.
Trump will probably win Florida now, he leads the state in the RCP average today and Ohio and Iowa are also heading his way
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
So for Obama voters who don't vote for Clinton it's a matter of lack of enthusiasm, but for Republicans who don't vote for Trump it's a matter of conscience?
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
Ninety fucking two fucking per cent!
They wont get that. Many Black people are innately conservative and others will sit on their hands in disillusionment as obama did seemingly little.
We were told that would happen in 2012 as well and instead blacks increased their turnout as share of population.
'EEA + FoM will win 60% - 40%. Hannan and Boris will be on our side.'
Having a laugh or just wishful thinking ?
You must have missed the key concern during the referendum campaign.
Possibly immigration WAS the main concern - although polls showed the biggest reason for voting leave was the ability to make our own decisions. I would guess there are at least 20% of Leavers - probably more - who aren't that bothered about FoM. Add these to the Remainers, all but the most petulant of whom would be expected to support such a deal against an alternative of a WTO deal, and you get your 60%+.
I'm not personally that bothered by FoM. I think objectively speaking that migration of low paid workers to take low paid work that is unviable without benefits or living four to a bedsit needs sorting but the seven years moratorium that seems to be on offer gives us plenty of time to think through what to do.
What that will be will depend on how successful we are in RoW trade viz european trade and whether the immigration is still an issue then.
As - even with FoM - there will be no in-work benefits for migrants, one would expect there to be significantly fewer of them even in an EFTA/EEA scenario.
This is the point everyone's missing. There's FoM under the EU and FoM outside the EU, and they're not the same.
Outside, we don't need to pay tax credits and housing benefit to Romanian Big Issue sellers and Polish car washers - yet we still have "Freedom of Movement" in that anyone from the EEA can come and live and work in the UK if they wish without a visa.
Unfortunately that is not correct. We would still have to pay tax credits and housing benefit ton"self employed" big issue sellers. The clause for free movement is absolutely identical in the EEA as it in the EU. We must reform our benefits system in the UK by making it contributory and axing tax credits.
Robert has been saying the opposite, that discrimination on the basis of nationality is allowed for in work benefits under the EEA.
That's doesn't mean of course that we shouldn't get rid of the mess that is tax credits, but that discussion should be an internal matter for the UK government.
It would be good if someone would confirm this either way as it is pretty cardinal to future options.
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
So for Obama voters who don't vote for Clinton it's a matter of lack of enthusiasm, but for Republicans who don't vote for Trump it's a matter of conscience?
That is a ridiculous thing to say.
I did not say that, or even write it. You are seeing things that are not there to justify an unwarranted sense of oppression and resentment.
Robert has been saying the opposite, that discrimination on the basis of nationality is allowed for in work benefits under the EEA.
That's doesn't mean of course that we shouldn't get rid of tax credits, but that discussion should be an internal matter for the UK government.
There was a ruling recently at the ECJ makes it possible to discriminate for benefits which require a contribution to be paid in. I believe it is the German version of housing benefit which is 50% contribution based, previously EU migrants could claim 100% on arrival based on need, but the Germans took it to the ECJ and now they only need to pay 50% as they do with German nationals. It makes a Swiss style 100% contributory system very attractive IMO as it would also encourage people to save.
Just stated reading the thread. A couple of points:
1) Yes, Trump has gotten a 'bounce' out of the GOP Convention. It's entirely reasonable to expect that Clinton will get a similar result. So viewing polls before about 2 weeks after the conventions finish will not yield a realistic view on how the candidates are really doing.
2) The first debate is on 9/26 at Hofstra. Trump has never debated 1 on 1 before, and Clinton is notoriously bad at thinking on her feet. The debates will have a big effect on the polls.
3) The DNC email leaks. The Dems are frantically trying to tie Trump into the Russians into the hacking etc etc. Any, all, or none of that may be true. I have no idea. But none of that matters. That the emails are genuine is not disputed, and it is the contents of the emails that matters, not how they were obtained. This is not a court of law with rules of evidence.
4) It has been some time since Clinton's victory is a 'foregone conclusion'
'Clinton Cash' has been released to time with the Democratic Convention. Will damper any Clinton Bounce.
It would be good if someone would confirm this either way as it is pretty cardinal to future options.
The wording for free movement in the EEA agreement is 100% identical to the EU free movement clause. The only upside is that if we were to challenge eligibility to benefits at the EFTA court then it wouldn't be ruled under the "ever closer union of the European people" rule that dominates the thinking of the ECJ.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
Just stated reading the thread. A couple of points:
1) Yes, Trump has gotten a 'bounce' out of the GOP Convention. It's entirely reasonable to expect that Clinton will get a similar result. So viewing polls before about 2 weeks after the conventions finish will not yield a realistic view on how the candidates are really doing.
2) The first debate is on 9/26 at Hofstra. Trump has never debated 1 on 1 before, and Clinton is notoriously bad at thinking on her feet. The debates will have a big effect on the polls.
3) The DNC email leaks. The Dems are frantically trying to tie Trump into the Russians into the hacking etc etc. Any, all, or none of that may be true. I have no idea. But none of that matters. That the emails are genuine is not disputed, and it is the contents of the emails that matters, not how they were obtained. This is not a court of law with rules of evidence.
4) It has been some time since Clinton's victory is a 'foregone conclusion'
'Clinton Cash' has been released to time with the Democratic Convention. Will damper any Clinton Bounce.
Ditto Dinesh D'Souza's "Hillary's America".
The Clinton Cash book has been out for months. Books and movies like these tend to appeal to those who agree with the premise - you wouldn't find many pro-Hillary fans going to a movie or reading a book extolling Trump.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
It is opening up even as we type. It will be gaveled to order by the mayor of Baltimore, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. Talk about pouring troubled waters on oil.....
Needless to say, for all the Obama voters who are claimed to be less motivated by Clinton, there are also a few Republicans who definitely are iffy about voting for Trump as opposed to, say, their consciences.
So for Obama voters who don't vote for Clinton it's a matter of lack of enthusiasm, but for Republicans who don't vote for Trump it's a matter of conscience?
That is a ridiculous thing to say.
I did not say that, or even write it. You are seeing things that are not there to justify an unwarranted sense of oppression and resentment.
Dismissing your simply silly second sentence - please explain what I misread.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
It is opening up even as we type. It will be gaveled to order by the mayor of Baltimore, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. Talk about pouring troubled waters on oil.....
- and the mayor forgets the gavel and has to run back onstage.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
It is opening up even as we type. It will be gaveled to order by the mayor of Baltimore, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. Talk about pouring troubled waters on oil.....
- and the mayor forgets the gavel and has to run back onstage.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
It is opening up even as we type. It will be gaveled to order by the mayor of Baltimore, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. Talk about pouring troubled waters on oil.....
Elizabeth Warren is up tonight. She's the most effective attack dog against Trump which will probably lead people to say either that they have the wrong candidate or that Hillary picked the wrong VP.
Re Florida: The Hispanics here are more right wing and won't be affected by Trumps wall rhetoric as they are legal (Peuto Rican and Cuban), Also Republicans had 1 million more people voting in their primary than the Democratic primary. That is a huge difference considering Obama only beat Romney by 73,000 voters in Florida.
Also Republicans had more voters in their primary than Democratic party in Michigan. That is worrying and underlines Hillary's enthusiasm problem.
Hmmm: one of my former colleagues is a fairly prominent Hispanic Floridian Republican. Obviously, he was a vocal Jeb Bush supporter, and is a loyal Republican. In private he tells me (and other people he used to work with) he could never vote for someone who'd put back Hispanic relations 50 years*.
* Disclaimer: these are ex and current Goldman Sachs people, and aren't that well disposed towards Trump, so he could be playing to his audience. But I doubt it.
You're disclaimer is very worrying for anyone who fears a Trump POTUS, especially since he is not even trying to get their support and is actively trying to put them off and support Hillary, they are toxic to his cause.Everyone keeps saying with absolute certainty that Brexit is SO different from Trump as the demographics mean he just can't win, unless the world has been turned on its head. Newsflash, the world HAS been turned on its head.
Also Democrats are relying on 92% of African Americans to win. Just a 2% swing to Trump and it is over for Hillary, they won't turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama even with Bill Clinton, they just won't.
Ninety fucking two fucking per cent!
They wont get that. Many Black people are innately conservative and others will sit on their hands in disillusionment as obama did seemingly little.
We were told that would happen in 2012 as well and instead blacks increased their turnout as share of population.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
Trump's speech provided the bounce even despite the disorganised and disunited earlier nights. Hillary's speech is key
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
It is opening up even as we type. It will be gaveled to order by the mayor of Baltimore, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. Talk about pouring troubled waters on oil.....
Elizabeth Warren is up tonight. She's the most effective attack dog against Trump which will probably lead people to say either that they have the wrong candidate or that Hillary picked the wrong VP.
Elizabeth Warren's achilles heel is her record. In the Senate she has done absolutely nothing. For all her big talk she has actually done zilch.
Trump has clearly got a bounce, Clinton needs one too. However I think Trump's will be bigger. By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college. It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
The way the Democrat convention is going i'm not even sure there will be a Clinton bounce...
It is opening up even as we type. It will be gaveled to order by the mayor of Baltimore, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. Talk about pouring troubled waters on oil.....
Elizabeth Warren is up tonight. She's the most effective attack dog against Trump which will probably lead people to say either that they have the wrong candidate or that Hillary picked the wrong VP.
Elizabeth Warren's achilles heel is her record. In the Senate she has done absolutely nothing. For all her big talk she has actually done zilch.
She did achieve some viral videos taking shots at Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
Comments
Nunu, are you Isam ?
Interesting stuff. Bakersfield is far, far from the America dream. 100 miles from LA but one trillion miles from gorgeous palm-lined boulevards of WeHo.
ps - is the reporter Hillary Andersson ill?
No I'm not isam, I hate Trump, but everyone is being really complacent, hmmm when has that happened before?
Outside, we don't need to pay tax credits and housing benefit to Romanian Big Issue sellers and Polish car washers - yet we still have "Freedom of Movement" in that anyone from the EEA can come and live and work in the UK if they wish without a visa.
Trump wants to build a wall and make America great again; Hillary wants to restructure student loans or some such technomancy. Dull and uninspiring.
"Brexit causes dramatic drop in UK economy, data suggests"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273
1) Yes, Trump has gotten a 'bounce' out of the GOP Convention. It's entirely reasonable to expect that Clinton will get a similar result. So viewing polls before about 2 weeks after the conventions finish will not yield a realistic view on how the candidates are really doing.
2) The first debate is on 9/26 at Hofstra. Trump has never debated 1 on 1 before, and Clinton is notoriously bad at thinking on her feet. The debates will have a big effect on the polls.
3) The DNC email leaks. The Dems are frantically trying to tie Trump into the Russians into the hacking etc etc. Any, all, or none of that may be true. I have no idea. But none of that matters. That the emails are genuine is not disputed, and it is the contents of the emails that matters, not how they were obtained. This is not a court of law with rules of evidence.
4) It has been some time since Clinton's victory is a 'foregone conclusion'
Complacency gets you in the end. The only question is when, and Trump is the kind of unpredictable candidate who will not be afraid to challenge Clinton on territory she won't expect to fight on.
" A plurality of Trump voters- 38%- also agree with Carson's assertion that Clinton has ties to Lucifer compared to just 35% who think that's not the case."
I guess the big unknown in all this is who will be standing as indrpendents.
There's a perfectly reasonable analysis that maintains the 2012 map. Florida edges further blue as does Virginia. Arizona too but not enough to flip. Trump does better that Romney across the rust belt but not enough to flip red.
North Carolina might be the joker. Back to blue as in 08.
By this time next week I expect it to be neck and neck. I have long been of the view this will be a 1960, 1968, 2000, 2004 type election with just a percentage vote or so in the popular vote and just one big state, probably Pennsylvania, deciding the electoral college.
It is time to take the idea of a President Trump seriously and with his statement today that he may withdraw the U.S. from the WTO and his hardline immigration policy that would mark a huge shift towards protectionism and nationalism in the world's largest superpower and be an even more dramatic change than BREXIT, which was also a shift in the same direction.
That's doesn't mean of course that we shouldn't get rid of the mess that is tax credits, but that discussion should be an internal matter for the UK government.
That is a ridiculous thing to say.
Corbyn 42 Smith 11
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/757618048664829952
The Clinton Cash book has been out for months. Books and movies like these tend to appeal to those who agree with the premise - you wouldn't find many pro-Hillary fans going to a movie or reading a book extolling Trump.
Any effect these have is likely to be marginal.
Clinton 47 .. Trump 42 - Forced Choice
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/07/25/yougoveconomist-poll-july-23-24-2016/
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