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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump gets marked bounce in first round of post-convention
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump gets marked bounce in first round of post-convention polling and now has clear national lead
Any idea that Hillary Clinton’s election in November is a forgone conclusion have been shaken in the first batch of post-Republican Convention polls. As the table show he’s got a clear leads.
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in any other year, it should be a walk in the park for Clinton. But in 2016???
WTF
Byron York ✔ @ByronYork
CNN poll Clinton honest and trustworthy: 68 no 30 yes. http://ow.ly/MFfa302zoMt
:shocked:
Out of interest, what do you consider the modern age?
I just missed the end of Barrington's test career, but he had better bowling and batting averages than Root and, significantly, his batting averages improved with higher quality opposition. Against Australia, he averaged something like 68!
PS I am a huge Root fan, so this is not meant in any way to detract from what he is accomplishing.
I guess it's the 30% that is shocking you.
Reversed my £300 levelling off at any rate (At the cost of a few quid or so), 3.3 clear value for Trump now.
The unplayed ad even has a bloody freeze frame of one of Trump's most nakedly populist policies ffsake.
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/757290614815727616
She went into 2008 with enormous advantages and lost to an admittedly impressive long shot (apparently Obama was 50/1). This time she faced almost no competition within the Democrats and just edged out a socialist (who was pretty unlucky with the first few contests) and is now struggling to beat a hugely divisive Republican.
The more I reflect on it, the more I think Tim Kaine was an inspired choice. OK, it will piss of Sanders' most ardent supporters, but what marginal effect will it have on suppressing Clinton's vote from that pool? I would have thought that very few Sanders voters would withhold their vote from Hillary over the Kaine selection who were not already intending to do so.
Where it could help her is in those GOPers - and I know many such - who cannot bring themselves to vote for Trump, but are very uncomfortable with not voting. It might steer a fair number of them from Johnson to Clinton, on the basis that Trump must be beaten, and Kaine makes it much less difficult to swallow the Clinton ticket.
Overall, as I said on the previous thread, I have Clinton a slight favorite at the moment, but with the caveat that there is a distinct possibility that Trump will crush her, even without taking into account the number of Black Swans that may be out there for Clinton with Russian hackers.
The answer - Trump is not appealing to people like you or me.
It'll be dirty, very dirty, that's for sure.
To be honest, I think I could probably repost my 'why Leave isn't getting trounced' posts, changing a few words, party names and leading characters, for 'why Trump isn't getting trounced'.
I called Leave, and I stick by my April call: Trump having a 55% chance of beating Hilary.
It's a weird experience to see an attack ad that made me wonder at times who'd paid for it.
Anyway, here's a few weeks before the last election.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/264683-gallup-romney-extends-lead-over-obama-nationally
Now, weakness in New Mexico and Nevada (both of which were won by Bush in 2000 and 2004) doesn't completely close the door to a Trump victory, and I suspect his protectionist message will go down very well in the rust belt. But it does make it incrementally harder. For that reason, I'd go with a narrow Hillary victory.
It's strange how conventions do change the polls, but they often do, at least in the short term.
FPT Agreed
Putins Russia is not the USSR and there are many far worse regimes that the west happily breaks bread with.
However the Putin regimes social policy has expressly repudiated progressive liberalism which makes it beyond the pale in the eyes of right thinking middle class types in the west. He is a Ghhassstly little man, worse than Farage.....
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/hungary-post-race-analysis-2016.html
I think it all goes back to the Crash.
Professional politicians (and the "establishment" , bankers, etc.) gave the world the Great Recession. At the time of the Great Recession the public wanted professional politicians to get them through the crisis, now the crisis is over it's time for the public to get retribution.
Each individual country also has it's own special circumstances, so for example in the UK, I'm sure the aftermath of Iraq and MP's expense's are playing their part. In France it's Islamic terrorism and so on.
But the common the denominator across the western world is anger over the the fall in wages and living standards since the Great Recession.
The last time we had an economic crash on a similar scale to 2008/2009 (1930's) it resulted in WWII. Hopefully this time things won't get that bad but I suspect in ten years time we'll look back at some of the things certain nations have done and think that Brexit was actually a fairly "mild" expression of anger at the political class....
There are enough checks and balances to deal with a capricious president in the US.
Enough crap presidents and you might see constitutional reform with the presidents wings clipped and congress appointing someone to exercise the power on his behalf.....what would such a post be called?
If a Non-UK EU instead integrates further and faster it could become a more realistic alternative bloc, hence a negative to Putin.
Brexit represents many unknown possible accounts, none of which can be controlled or even really influenced by Putin. Therefore I lean to him probably preferring Remain because it's the known quantity, hence he can plot his next moves with all the pieces still on the table.
Trump knows he has to address his bad numbers in at least the Latino demographic (less so the Black demo). he has explicitly stated as much, and he has a few months to work on it. While you and I would agree he has set himself a Herculean task to undo the damage he has done, you have to admit that he has been very effective in executing his strategy thus far and thus we should admit that he might know what he is doing and he might actually be aware of his capabilities.
Scary, but too many have dismissed him and his abilities to their detriment already.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3346880/Bellwether-county-called-s-Trump-ve-wrong-TWICE-1888.html
The trouble is that Hillary is a lot better than many people realise or will give credence to and is nowhere near as bad as her detractors assert.
The crap that had been levelled against her would never be contemplated against a male politician which speaks to the enduring misogyny in public life.
Or am I misreading it?
http://reaction.life/what-should-the-eu-do-now/
On topic: pissing off all the Sanders supporters can't be helping her. Crooked Hillary.
Remember, Winter is Coming.
https://twitter.com/Fight4UK/status/757547609389162496
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
I think the upshot is that the markets know what they're doing: There's a strong favourite, but not so strong that an upset would be weird.