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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle for Labour appears to be being won by contender
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle for Labour appears to be being won by contender with the “assisted place” on the ballot
Last week’s big LAB leadership news was the decision of the party’s NEC that Corbyn, as the incumbent, should not be troubled by the need to find MP/MEP nominations in order to get on the ballot which had been triggered by Angela Eagle. It was always reckoned that he would struggle in that task and the NEC’s decision was clearly vital.
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The exact same message ("we'll lose the general election") was used against Trump by the Republican establishment & it didn't work there.
It won't work here, either.
Smith-Eagle need to present a positive case for voting "for" them. A negative case only works in general elections, not in party elections.
Smith offer of a new referendum not a bad start (in terms of winning leadership). It was a big enough deal that it got reported. They need to argue that they are the change candidate...
You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh - the “assisted place” for Jeremy came about because MPs though he had no chance of winning. The NEC’s decision to allow Corbyn to stand without nominations was because the rule book never anticipated a leader not standing down having lost a confidence vote. We labelled Andrea Leadsom as the ‘accidental candidate’, perhaps the label should more aptly be bestowed upon Corbyn.
Golly, isn't it hot
Glad to see just minor scuffles in Ohio. And yet again, I go to bed early - and miss the hoo-haa in Germany. Thankfully, no fatal injuries reported. Still sounds very nasty though.
Booking an airline ticket online in 1982, at 19 mins:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p03064m1/the-computer-programme-1-its-happening-now#group=p031v2bg
It's fine for Angela Eagle to talk about being a woman or being gay - but saying you're a 'normal bloke with kids' is somehow a veiled dog whistle to bigots.
My advice - make the most of it
IIRC It asked when you'd joined and gave a few options - inc before GE2010/2015 and last year or more recently.
It also asked if you were a member or registered supporter.
British tech giant Arm Holdings yesterday agreed to a £24.3bn takeover by telecoms group Softbank, in a move that would go down as the second largest outbound Japanese deal on record."
http://www.cityam.com/245714/shot-arm-city-24bn-mega-deal-agreed
The question then becomes what next? If Labour fail to beat Corbyn in this challenge what is plan B?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/18/pegida-starting-political-party-as-authorities-mull-ban-over-extremism?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard Very true. I worry though that that this online material and IS stuff is a bit like a psychological " App " that evil people can " download ". A person my be evil and unhinged but the " App " gives them the tool need to make it " work " in a real world attack.
What happens after Corbyn's victory in September is a move to consolidate the hard left's power in the party, with mandatory reselection of MPs becoming policy and the NEC becoming even more accommodating to Corbyn.
It's worth repeating time and again: the hard left has absolutely no interest whatsoever in Parliamentary democracy. The path to true socialism is via the streets and mass protest turning into uprising.
This process has already started and the complete chaos of Labour over the last year indicates that there is plenty more to come. Will it be enough? Who knows. But this is all about Corbyn and the spotlight needs to be on him from the start in a way it never was the last time.
I still think there's a chance of one early next year. There's no appetite for one now after the referendum but t it doesn't take much for her to say "we're a government that listens to the people" and calls one in the spring
I am in no sense a left-winger, and wouldn't vote Labour in a million years, but there is nothing good about Corbyn being re-elected.
I truly feel sorry for both the Labour party, and the country.
Is that the case? Do you have a link?
I can't get over what crappily executed coup/challenge this is. It fails on almost every level. A couple of days ago we were wondering if Erdogan had planned his own to grab more power. If Jeremy wins the leadership ballot, we could be forgiven for wondering the same
http://order-order.com/2016/07/18/working-class-barry-boy-owen-smith-lived-huge-surrey-mansion/
But when Corbyn has such strong positive support, that doesn't greatly matter. In fact, Corbyn's figures are stronger than they appear, due to how YouGov have framed the outputs. Normally, they'd exclude don't knows and WNVs, as in GE VI. If we do that, the figures would be:
Corbyn 60
Eagle 23
Smith 17
and
Corbyn 62
Smith 38
Corbyn 63
Eagle 37
Unless the abstainers can be brought in (and if they're not prepared to vote at such a time of crisis, when will they be?), the non-Corbyn candidate will need to win over a fifth of Corbyn's voters, assuming that YouGov are on the money. That is a huge ask and probably an impossible one.
One thing that I fear will help Corbyn is that he is now facing the wooden, unfunny and frankly pedestrian May instead of Cameron taking the piss out of him. He will not look quite so ridiculous on a weekly basis.
@CharliePatrick: @SunriseIsabel Melania's speech sound familiar!? #GOPconvention @FLOTUS @EamonnHolmes https://t.co/DAOAAO3F2G
https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/
I wonder if it seems crap because fundamentally it is stage one of an ongoing process. No one really credible to the wider electorate with serious ambitions is clearly ready to run and lose against Jezza. They are holding back.
In other news, I rather enjoyed watching the walk in the park with Corbyn. I feel like I should hand over my PB Tory membership card now...
Most of the serious heavyweights left after Brown started the destruction of the Labour party by undermining his rivals.
As devil's advocate Southam's post could be turned round as "never stopped to consider that MPs would turn against an overwhelmingly popular leader before he had been rejected by the electorate".
"78 per cent are ABC1s" - could that be more than Tories, LibDems. Almost certainly more than UKIP.
"He wasn't exactly a very good Muslim." This concept is becoming popular but on its own, it's vacuous.
IS will no doubt say that Western Muslims are not good Muslims either. Who is the better Muslim? Sunni or Shia? Or one of the minor branches?
Christianity has major tenets; the Golden Rule and the nature of Christ. Islam has the Koran and the Hadith and the opinion of the scholars is not paramount. Verses can be, and are read in isolation. By comparison, the arguments between Christians are minor.
Oh, and most Christians are not good Christians either, but they know it.
I'm not sure there's any best outcome, just least worst.
"There are the only ones with the money :-) "
Guardian readers?
There is brand loyalty and it will persist for a little longer. But Jezza could be a disaster - the disappointment will be epic.
The problem is... if Corbyn does win this... then his mandate is even more secure....
George Eaton @georgeeaton 9h9 hours ago
Rather than splitting, Labour MPs hope to significantly narrow Corbyn's victory and challenge him again. Poll suggests they'll struggle.
https://next.ft.com/content/97b44f88-4509-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1
The membership overwhelmingly backed Corbyn just nine months ago, yet some of the MPs began attacking him from day one. Almost all of them are attacking him now. Despite his mandate Corbyn has yet to be tested in a national election. The MPs are simply showing the contempt for the people and a rejection of democracy that exemplifies the problem with much of the political class nowadays, or at least people's perception of it.
As a Labour member I would see the MPs trying to stitch Corbyn up at the NEC by barring him from an election despite being the current leader, trying to stitch up the membership by barring thousands of people who had joined and already paid on a promise of being able to participate in a leader election, barring every single constituency from having any local meeting for at least the next two months, and putting out a silly set of rules suggesting membership applications will be rejected if someone rolls their eyes or 'tuts' at a meeting. And there are suggestions floating around that the anti-Corbyn faction appears to have got access to the membership database.
If I were a labour member I would feel driven to back Corbyn in circumstances like this - just to teach these anti-democratic MPs a lesson in democracy.
If he wins this year, surely the NEC will swing heavily towards him, making a future leadership challenge much harder as the registered supporters would no doubt be back in the game, leaving aside the possibility of defections and a formal split.
You don't have to be a charismatic comedian to get the better of Corbyn at PMQs.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all
Corbyn won as soon as the stitch up in voting was done because no one thought out what the knee jerk restrictions actually did to the membership
That 60% support will be coming from well beyond the hard left alone. Over a long period of a couple of years at least, Labour will suffer electoral losses accompanied by poor polling, such that the penny will finally drop for some of Corbyn's supporters that he is after all a total electoral liability and that the party cannot go on like this. However, other members who are Corbyn opponents will leave in despair. The question is whether the former happens faster than the latter, and whether the party can hold together in the meantime. If the split is for now confined to the PLP declaring independence and electing a separate leader who will be LOTO, there is still a chance of that. If we see the formal creation of a fully fledged breakaway party, then it will be too late.
Most voters feel their vote has mattered if/when they're on the winning side. Now of course every vote counts equally but alot of people think 'Why bother' if say they're in a safe Labour seat say.
Now if you pay £25 and win you can feel that your £25 counted - you're on the winning side after all. But to pay £25 and lose would feel like a waste of money.
Also - it is a great way to disenfranchise the anti-Corbyn vote.
Obviously a potential "Saving Labour" anti-Corbynite here... but...
https://twitter.com/RichNP/status/755161598004752385
29% saying they'd vote Labour is pretty meaningless with 4ish years to go.
They then had a serious breakdown and rather than facing up to the truly difficult decisions that needed to be made, entered a comfortably delusional virtual reality.
Reminds me of what happens to Jonathan Pryce's character in the dystopian film Brasil.
Anyway, only there can it be unmade. So I therefore expect the only way he can be got rid is via a crushing election defeat and then through the rise of a strong King over the water, who can inspire the Labour membership to take a different path.