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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How it could go wrong for LAB in South Shields: 1. The man

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Coogan's description of Dacre.

    One to commit to the anals of great English language prose, tim. Onanist perfection.

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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Mick_Pork said:

    Fenster said:

    I have no idea where you stand. You are too busy doing your passive/aggressive digs on other voters to reveal any studied policies of your own.

    Don't read your own posts much do you?
    If you don't want it back then don't be so free to dish it out.

    I'm going now because I'm tired and Mike has kicked you and me off the board before for bitching at eachother so let's call it a day. Now keep up the good work.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mick_Pork said:



    Sure, sure. Pointless for a politician to actually show you mean what you say. Course it is.

    Nope. It'd be a gimmick. You'd know it, and you'd rightly criticise it as a pointless gimmick.


    If it's got a Cameroon like yourself this upset then that speaks volumes.

    Where did I say I was upset? I just think that 300,000 isn't a meaningful level of support in the age of twitter frenzies. Equally, I rather enjoyed seeing Guido fall flat on his face with the whole capital punishment petition.


    That 300,000 is a good deal more than 10 times the vote IDS was elected on in case you were wondering.

    I wasn't wondering. But since you mention it, more people voted for Ron Paul than voted for IDS. Outrageous. Why isn't Ron Paul MP for Chingford?


    Is he doing it? No? Then it's posturing.

    No, he answered a question. He said I "could" do it. He didn't say I "should" or "am" or "will" or "may" do it. He just said it is possible. If he hadn't answered the question you would have said he was 'out of touch'. But he answered it and is therefore 'posturing'.

    Life must be nice in the simple, black and white world that you clearly inhabit.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Carola

    Yup and the PB Tories on here have views that are completely unelectable. Still more votes for UKIP and Crosby confirms to them they are rightful to be fearful.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    "More bad news for IDS.

    Fraud detection in the new Universal Credit system is only in it's "early stages"
    AveryLP said:

    Coogan's description of Dacre.

    One to commit to the anals of great English language prose, tim. Onanist perfection.



    Pardon?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IOS said:



    It has been Cameron going on about the EU and welfare that has seen them surge.

    Nah, not sure I agree.

    I think the UKIP surge was a symptom of the anti-politics mood. Cameron's actions have been a *response* to the surge (and ineffective) rather than a cause. I suppose there could be a second order effect, in that talking about the EU has made opposition seem more respectable, but it's not as simple as your suggest.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Yorkcity said:

    Thanks Tyke

    If it happens believe we would be first club to get promotion to the football league then get relegated the year after.

    From what I have heard all the finances and the new ground are based on the status of staying in the league.

    That is why they went for the new manager Nigel Worthington.


    Bloody hell,that sounds serious,here's hoping/wishing York all the best for in your last 4 games,this next match against Accrington for me could decide your future,stanley only 2 points in front.

    Just had a look at the plans for your new stadium,very nice,hopes everything keeps on course yorkie.

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    If I read this Times story right, Labour's internal polling shows that the people Labour need to win over to win a majority at the next election, don't like when Labour are on the side of welfare benefit recipients.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Mick_Pork said:

    Carola said:

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.

    Precisely.

    Mick_Pork said:

    Carola said:

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.

    Precisely.

    Mick_Pork said:

    Carola said:

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.

    Precisely.

    Just to make it clear. I never mentioned the Phillpott case. I never mentioned the children, I never made any allusions to the case and I never would bring children into it. I was commenting on something else entirely.

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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Carola said:

    That Mail front page is a shocker.

    I took a sharp intake of breath when I first saw it.

    Possibly their most controversial front page since their Stephen Lawrence murderers front page

    Yes, but on reflection I think it has some validity.

    I am not a part of society that would condone the lifestyle, and it is both relevant and topical that we, as taxpayers, were the funding agency for him.

    We are also guilty of complicity in allowing this to happen, as the system of welfare that we have accepted and allowed our politicians to develop has enabled his lifestyle.

    It is legitimate to point out the failings of our systems, but would be good to do it without sensationalism. The only way to do so is with true cases and examples.

    This case ended in disaster, as a failure in multiple disciplines. With murder and rape charges in the past, a debatable temper and need to control, the failures are from Social Services, possibly Police and legal teams, welfare payments and systems that support them.

    The story is a part of the tapestry of images we need to define the type of society we want to live in.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mick_Pork said:

    "More bad news for IDS.

    Fraud detection in the new Universal Credit system is only in it's "early stages"


    AveryLP said:

    Coogan's description of Dacre.

    One to commit to the anals of great English language prose, tim. Onanist perfection.

    Pardon?



    Pork

    Pardon me for being so rude,
    It was not me it was my food.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Since it was the Thatcher government which introduced the compulsory seat-belt legislation, that seems rather unlikely, unless I'm going completely gaga:

    Richard, remember that *facts* are not allowed to be taught in history.

    You need to learn to empathise: Thatcher is evil. therefore she opposed everything good.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:


    Please remind me if the Tories abolished the Minimum Wage. Or, did they repeal the Seat Belt legislation ? They were loud in their condemnation.

    Since it was the Thatcher government which introduced the compulsory seat-belt legislation, that seems rather unlikely, unless I'm going completely gaga:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/31/newsid_2505000/2505871.stm

    surbiton said:


    Please remind me if the Tories abolished the Minimum Wage. Or, did they repeal the Seat Belt legislation ? They were loud in their condemnation.

    Since it was the Thatcher government which introduced the compulsory seat-belt legislation, that seems rather unlikely, unless I'm going completely gaga:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/31/newsid_2505000/2505871.stm
    Richard, sometimes you try to be too smart ! Please read the following and let us know which party predominantly voted against the motion.

    Tories always change tack, years later.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1976/mar/01/road-traffic-seat-belts-bill
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    @Charles

    There's little point in trying to spin this for IDS because he's made a complete mess of it.

    That you think 330,000 is meaningless, with an amusing attempt to conflate it with twitter or some ludicrous effort at roping Ron Paul into things, certainly doesn't seem particularly convincing. Nor does parsing his words for a get out clause. He said what he said and it came across as less than accomplished to say the least, considering he is hardly the poster boy for hard up MPs. (MPs being second only to bankers for those who should be posturing on such matters)

    We all know had this been a right wing or Cameroon issue you agree with getting this level of support this fast your attitude would be markedly different. Not that you alone would be guilty of this of course but it is best to at least acknowledge the truth.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carola said:

    That Mail front page is a shocker.

    Agreed. I hope that Dacre will come to regret this. Vere would be turning in his grave - I hope Jonathan gives Dacre the bollocking he deserves.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    A good description of Dacre for the evening

    "using his newspaper to peddle his Little-England, curtain-twitching Alan Partridgesque view of the world, which manages to combine sanctimonious, pompous moralising and prurient, voyeuristic, judgmental obsession, like a Victorian father masturbating secretly in his bedroom."

    Steve Coogan

    Disagree. While I broadly agree with the sentiment, the insult is over-worked and not very elegant. Brevity is the soul of wit.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Mick_Pork said:

    @Charles

    There's little point in trying to spin this for IDS because he's made a complete mess of it.

    That you think 330,000 is meaningless with an amusing attempt to conflate it with twitter or some ludicrous effort at roping Ron Paul into things certainly doesn't seem particularly convincing. Nor does parsing his words for a get out. He said what he said and it came across as less than accomplished to say the least considering he is hardly the poster boy for hard up MPs.

    We all know had this been a right wing or Cameroon issue you agree with getting this level of support this fast your attitude would be markedly different. Not that you alone would be guilty of this of course but it is best to at least acknowledge the truth.

    The problem for IDS is that the question was of the 'When did you stop beating your wife?' class. His position wasn't helped by the distortion of his response by.

    This will do diddly squat to the measures, life or result of the next election.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @Seth O Logue

    Yes Seth, I noticed tims post now. Thanks for your always edifying clarification.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Could I request that Ed Balls lives on JSA? Not just for a week, but permenantly?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    Miss Carola, it does appear that they've bitten off more than they can chew [perhaps reminiscent of the badly written letter in the Sun].

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.
    True Wit is Nature to Advantage drest,
    What oft was Thought, but ne'er so well Exprest


    Truth is not necessarily exclusive. The Mail's front page is a triumph of polemical and perceived truth. It expresses what the vast majority of its subscribers believe to be true.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    A good description of Dacre for the evening

    I can think of far better and from some of his own journos no less, but alas, I fear they are not suitable for the gentle ears of this place.

    He has a particularly colourful lifestyle for someone in charge of such a paper.


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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mick_Pork said:



    We all know had this been a right wing or Cameroon issue you agree with getting this level of support this fast your attitude would be markedly different. Not that you alone would be guilty of this of course but it is best to at least acknowledge the truth.

    Nope - you need to consider the proportion of the relevant constituency.

    Liberty and Livelihood, for instance got between half and one million people (police to marcher estimates, from memory). Out of a rural population of say 6 million (8% of 60m + a bit) that means that 10%+ of the relevant group got their boots on and trekked down to London to march about something they cared about.

    The various marches against the Iraq way got (I think) up to a million+. That's a good turnout.

    330,000 going to a website and clicking "I agree" isn't very meaningful.

    (Not that responding to mass hysteria is a good way to govern anyway).
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:



    Since it was the Thatcher government which introduced the compulsory seat-belt legislation, that seems rather unlikely, unless I'm going completely gaga:

    Richard, remember that *facts* are not allowed to be taught in history.

    You need to learn to empathise: Thatcher is evil. therefore she opposed everything good.
    Charles, you should read this too.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1976/mar/01/road-traffic-seat-belts-bill

    How did your dear old Tebbit vote ? And Powell ? And Maude ?

    It is just like claiming Tories were always for gay rights after legislating section 28.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    philiph said:

    This will do diddly squat to the measures, life or result of the next election.

    The measures are far more precarious than some on here seem to believe. There have been warnings from councils the CAB, disabled groups and others that are all about the implementation and the complexity this could all soon get into.

    It's best not to bet the farm on an Osbrowne/IDS master strategy when competence has hardly been the watchword of this government.

    As for the next election, inept dog whistling like this will not matter a jot. We know what shifts votes in big numbers and it certainly isn't this or trying to appease the kippers by campaigning on their core issues. It's the economy. Osbrowne blew it and gave little Ed his 10 point lead. If he's still there come the next election then all the Crosby dog whistling in the world will not help. You either win on economic competence or you're out. Everything else is noise.



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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    @surbiton

    George Osborne is a dire public communicator (hence he gets lots of stick from Tim depicting him as a coward).

    I only heard a little bit of the speech on a short car journey. His diction was awful, modulation, awful, and both were random and changeable at any moment. His Ts and Ds in particular were coming and going without rhyme or reason, he would drop them or use them at the end of words, I couldn't guess which he was going to do next. When they were within words, well, they could come out as any sound at all.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Miss Carola, it does appear that they've bitten off more than they can chew [perhaps reminiscent of the badly written letter in the Sun].

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.
    True Wit is Nature to Advantage drest,
    What oft was Thought, but ne'er so well Exprest


    Truth is not necessarily exclusive. The Mail's front page is a triumph of polemical and perceived truth. It expresses what the vast majority of its subscribers believe to be true.
    There are some on here who would benefit from being taught to feel another's woe.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @Charles

    You need to consider that the mobilisation of people on a grand scale has bigger knock on effects than you appear to understand. That the Iraq War was not stopped did not mean the massive march was pointless. Ask the lib dems or the SNP whether their membership and subsequent fortunes did not get a huge boost from that march.

    The CA did enough to get their issues considered across the parties and championed by quite a few MPs who no doubt benefited from that groundswell.

    As for this petition, you can glibly try to dismiss it in the same manner IDS is trying to but that's a huge amount of people in a very short time so a public nerve was quite clearly touched. What it says about the tories and the precarious balancing act Cammie is attempting by trying to keep himself less toxic than the tory brand is extremely illuminating. If you wish to be complacent that is your choice. I would suggest the tories are in no position to do so. If Osbrowne hadn't gifted little Ed and labour a 10 point lead then you could perhaps afford to be.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Miss Carola, it does appear that they've bitten off more than they can chew [perhaps reminiscent of the badly written letter in the Sun].

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.
    True Wit is Nature to Advantage drest,
    What oft was Thought, but ne'er so well Exprest


    Truth is not necessarily exclusive. The Mail's front page is a triumph of polemical and perceived truth. It expresses what the vast majority of its subscribers believe to be true.
    There are some on here who would benefit from being taught to feel another's woe.
    BBC Panorama not entirely sympathetic to Philpott just now.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,819
    edited April 2013
    There is a word now for people trying to change the world by clicking online petitions - "slacktivists".
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Miss Carola, it does appear that they've bitten off more than they can chew [perhaps reminiscent of the badly written letter in the Sun].

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.
    True Wit is Nature to Advantage drest,
    What oft was Thought, but ne'er so well Exprest


    Truth is not necessarily exclusive. The Mail's front page is a triumph of polemical and perceived truth. It expresses what the vast majority of its subscribers believe to be true.
    There are some on here who would benefit from being taught to feel another's woe.
    Very papal.

    Does approval of the Mail's front page preclude empathy for the victims (or even the perpetrators)? Does it even preclude understanding of a diametrically opposite value system?

    The headline shocks not because it is false but because it contains a sufficient amount of truth to be uncomfortable. Objectors may not wish to view the events from Dacre's perspective but it doesn't follow that his view is invalid.

    Literary truth is more powerful than historical fact: it allows irony and the coexistence of contradictory truth.

    As you might have guessed I approve of the Mail front page without accepting or even needing it to be the whole truth.

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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited April 2013

    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Miss Carola, it does appear that they've bitten off more than they can chew [perhaps reminiscent of the badly written letter in the Sun].

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.
    True Wit is Nature to Advantage drest,
    What oft was Thought, but ne'er so well Exprest


    Truth is not necessarily exclusive. The Mail's front page is a triumph of polemical and perceived truth. It expresses what the vast majority of its subscribers believe to be true.
    There are some on here who would benefit from being taught to feel another's woe.
    BBC Panorama not entirely sympathetic to Philpott just now.
    I'm not talking about Philpott, Sunil. Though clearly he's going to be a poster boy for those with impotent bile to lance. Anyway. Whatever.

    Edit: well done for getting the BBC in there though.
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    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Miss Carola, it does appear that they've bitten off more than they can chew [perhaps reminiscent of the badly written letter in the Sun].

    They're only saying what some on here seem to think.
    True Wit is Nature to Advantage drest,
    What oft was Thought, but ne'er so well Exprest


    Truth is not necessarily exclusive. The Mail's front page is a triumph of polemical and perceived truth. It expresses what the vast majority of its subscribers believe to be true.
    There are some on here who would benefit from being taught to feel another's woe.
    BBC Panorama not entirely sympathetic to Philpott just now.
    I'm not talking about Philpott, Sunil. Though clearly he's going to be a poster boy for those with impotent bile to lance. Anyway. Whatever.
    Impotent bile to lance?

    Surely that's a mixed metaphor or two?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    AveryLP said:

    Does approval of the Mail's front page preclude empathy for the victims (or even the perpetrators)? Does it even preclude understanding of a diametrically opposite value system?

    The headline shocks not because it is false but because it contains a sufficient amount of truth to be uncomfortable. Objectors may not wish to view the events from Dacre's perspective but it doesn't follow that his view is invalid.

    Literary truth is more powerful than historical fact: it allows irony and the coexistence of contradictory truth.

    As you might have guessed I approve of the Mail front page without accepting or even needing it to be the whole truth.


    You should go back to spinning for Lansley Seth. You at least didn't appear to be so grotesque and pathetic when you were doing something that harmless and futile.

    Then again you were spinning like a top for Romney so being out of touch is second nature to you.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    EdmundinTokyo - Perhaps those Obama voters were Satanists!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    From today's Sun "Rail union chief Crow has a three-bed council house despite his £140,000 a year. ... Hull East MP Mr Turner was asked if it was right for Crow to be subsidised by taxpayers. ... He replied: 'Bob’s a great socialist. Doesn’t believe in buying home.'"
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    It would be interesting to see an opinion poll on what people think about tomorrow's Daily Mail front page. I'd guess a large segment of the public would agree with it.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @Surbiton.

    It was like a white middle class teenager taking the West Indian patois he'd practised in his bedroom for its first spin around Camden Market.

    George is only following a long tradition of linguistic irony by leading British financiers.

    I knew a man who released a single in the 1980s with a song titled "O.K. Ya! (Henry's Song)". The band was called Arthur Somerset & the Turkeys of Sloane and its lead singer was the son of the man who used to sign the Bank of England's banknotes.

    Delightfully punk, tim.

    If you want a taste, here is a link:

    http://mp3skull.com/mp3/somerset_song.html


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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mick_Pork said:

    AveryLP said:

    Does approval of the Mail's front page preclude empathy for the victims (or even the perpetrators)? Does it even preclude understanding of a diametrically opposite value system?

    The headline shocks not because it is false but because it contains a sufficient amount of truth to be uncomfortable. Objectors may not wish to view the events from Dacre's perspective but it doesn't follow that his view is invalid.

    Literary truth is more powerful than historical fact: it allows irony and the coexistence of contradictory truth.

    As you might have guessed I approve of the Mail front page without accepting or even needing it to be the whole truth.


    You should go back to spinning for Lansley Seth.
    Pork

    My pearls were for Carola, not you.

    You would look very odd bejewelled.

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Its not just the well known southern European countries that are in trouble:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-02/holland-economy-brink

    Where has Ave it been recently with both Watford and the stockmarket doing so well - prime conditions for him to show up! On the markets, still looking at a high on US markets on Friday to mark the end of the 4 year old rally. S&P 500 closed at 1570. One line says it should stop short of 1582, another says we should get to around 1597. I'm in the latter camp just to screw the bears over for a last time, before the greatest crash in history can get under way.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-02/new-dow-highs-builders-battered-trannies-trounced-and-russell-ravaged

    Today's action of non-confirmations all over the place is classic action just before a very important turning point is reached.

    Less good was the action in GBPUSD - got stopped out, not expecting this weakness. Back to the drawing board with this one. Has to make a low below 1.4831 before rallying in time from there. Was 1.5250 area the high before going south again? Was expecting the 1.5430 area but don't like todays action for that to play out.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Re: benefit changes

    It seems some are more equal than others:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22003165

    What an absurd society we live in.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited April 2013
    Pong said:

    Re: benefit changes

    It seems some are more equal than others:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22003165

    What an absurd society we live in.


    Pong, I live not far from Balmoral Castle, and visited it not long ago. The one thing that struck me was just how boring it was compared to other castles in the vicinity. And that is because it absolutely screamed 'the good life' royal style, a fad that has really taken off in my rural area recently. Every where we saw examples of how the estate was trying to be self sufficient, it literally does grow and produce its own food.

    Lots of folk now going back to growing their own veg and keeping hens again around here, something that I haven't seen since my Granny's day. And the Queen was doing it long before anyone else. :) What ever you say about the current monarch, I genuinely believe that the Queen does really pay her way in so many ways and some. And considering her age, she still doesn't seem to be in any hurry to retire any time soon.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Perhaps the anti-Daily Mail crowd would have been more comfortable with Tony Blair's formulation - "These are the ugly manifestations of a society that is becoming unworthy of that name."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    AndyJS said:

    It would be interesting to see an opinion poll on what people think about tomorrow's Daily Mail front page. I'd guess a large segment of the public would agree with it.

    What on expelling sex bullies ?!

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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited April 2013
    Watching Adam Hills, who covered the paralymics for you, he has never used the fact he is legless n the true sense of the word as an excuse. Neither did Oscar Pistorius either in his halcyon days. Not having a leg is different now to what it was a generation ago with prosthetic options, and I agree that the boogying of a man after a serious motorbike accident confirms that it is not a true handicap to some jobs, if not most jobs.

    *Adam Hills incidentally did Who do You think You are last night in Oz and I hope that the UK gets to see it as one of the more fascinating stories..

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Re. South Shields, UKIP are as low as 10/1 with William Hill.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    It would be interesting to see an opinion poll on what people think about tomorrow's Daily Mail front page. I'd guess a large segment of the public would agree with it.

    What on expelling sex bullies ?!

    That was Tuesday's front page!
This discussion has been closed.