The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
Fantasy. If the NEC says he needs nominations his goose is cooked. They probably won't. But if they do the game's up.
Which NEC the one in place by 5th August will cement the lefts control of the party.
SDP2 ensues no union funding bugger all membership.
I n the meantime 15 years of Tory Govt
As I say tomorrow's NEC says he is off the ballot. How fast can a leadership election be run in which only 1 candidate?
impossible to run an election by 5/8/16.
Legal challenge, nominations, ballot papers. etc
Emergency Conference are a certainty if Jezza denied a place
The Tories have shown how you don't need a ballot of members when only one candidate.
Legal challenge - yeh, I can see that would blow a hole in my predictions, but would things just continue whilst the proceedings happen or would everything be blocked?
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
That would be the very likely outcome if the NEC sees sense tomorrow. It probably won't, and will put him on the ballot. My wife and many of my friends were Corbyn supporters. There view now? Time to go. The game's up.
I think the NEC will see sense.
Corbyn is finished.
My Corbynista friends (some of which are actually members and voted for him, to my horror) seem to wonder what he is trying to achieve by all this. Party comes first, they say. But we shall see what the NEC do.
Although it'll be a poor show for us popcorn addicts, I predict British politics will have returned to normality by the party conferences.
May in Downing Street, 'normal' LOTO in place, Socialist Alliance/Momentum holding mass rallies of at least a hundred people being addressed by Owen.
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
What is the timetable for election of new NEC?
i received mine today
5th August it says for new NEC
Just under a month then to instigate a coup in which only 1 person is on the ballot and becomes leader of the Labour party. Branding secured.
Indeed. As soon as Corbyn goes, the new management will sweep through and clear up the mess and secure the legacy.
Never been a more important NEC meeting.
Should be live on Sky.
I'd watch that!
Anti Corbyn NEC reckon Jezza can be kept off iff the NEC vote is a secret ballot.
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
Just wait till the City starts its charm offensive! Talk about caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
That would be the very likely outcome if the NEC sees sense tomorrow. It probably won't, and will put him on the ballot. My wife and many of my friends were Corbyn supporters. There view now? Time to go. The game's up.
I think the NEC will see sense.
Corbyn is finished.
My Corbynista friends (some of which are actually members and voted for him, to my horror) seem to wonder what he is trying to achieve by all this. Party comes first, they say. But we shall see what the NEC do.
Although it'll be a poor show for us popcorn addicts, I predict British politics will have returned to normality by the party conferences.
May in Downing Street, 'normal' LOTO in place, Socialist Alliance/Momentum holding mass rallies of at least a hundred people being addressed by Owen.
A brave call. But let's hope you are right.
Who knows? If the US sees a breakdown in civil society and the election of Trump, and Europe starts to disintegrate, we could be a beacon of stability and normality.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
Fantasy. If the NEC says he needs nominations his goose is cooked. They probably won't. But if they do the game's up.
Which NEC the one in place by 5th August will cement the lefts control of the party.
SDP2 ensues no union funding bugger all membership.
I n the meantime 15 years of Tory Govt
As I say tomorrow's NEC says he is off the ballot. How fast can a leadership election be run in which only 1 candidate?
impossible to run an election by 5/8/16.
Legal challenge, nominations, ballot papers. etc
Emergency Conference are a certainty if Jezza denied a place
An election with one candidate? Ergo a coronation of a caretaker?
Absolutely Zero chance.
Nominations couple of weeks
Corbyn resigns new process required
Plus do you really think members will not force an EGM to stop the process
Dai Davis This is a really good blog. Just 14% of private sector employees are in a TU. Shocking how we've let this happen. https://t.co/h3zZAvtGiI
If you include self employed and partners in partnerships, then Trade Union members make up just 10.1% of all people who work in the Private sector, and will probably full to less than 10% within a year.
In part it is because the workers rights are enshrined in law and enforced by lawyers rather than picket lines. Auto enrolled pensions, compulsory maternity and paternity leave, compulsory living wage, EWTD, unfair dissmisal etc etc.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
Fantasy. If the NEC says he needs nominations his goose is cooked. They probably won't. But if they do the game's up.
Which NEC the one in place by 5th August will cement the lefts control of the party.
SDP2 ensues no union funding bugger all membership.
I n the meantime 15 years of Tory Govt
As I say tomorrow's NEC says he is off the ballot. How fast can a leadership election be run in which only 1 candidate?
impossible to run an election by 5/8/16.
Legal challenge, nominations, ballot papers. etc
Emergency Conference are a certainty if Jezza denied a place
The Tories have shown how you don't need a ballot of members when only one candidate.
Legal challenge - yeh, I can see that would blow a hole in my predictions, but would things just continue whilst the proceedings happen or would everything be blocked?
I think it likely that a Court would grant an injunction preventing a leadership election, pending a full hearing.
If the NEC breaches Labour's constitution, in order to keep Corbyn off the ballot, Corbyn will win any legal challenge.
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
Just wait till the City starts its charm offensive! Talk about caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..
I'm not sure you can charm Theresa. One reason why in spite of myself I'm coming round to the idea of her as PM.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
Just wait till the City starts its charm offensive! Talk about caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..
I'm not sure you can charm Theresa. One reason why in spite of myself I'm coming round to the idea of her as PM.
It's been said before, but Clarke did her no damage by calling her a "bloody woman"!
Dai Davis This is a really good blog. Just 14% of private sector employees are in a TU. Shocking how we've let this happen. https://t.co/h3zZAvtGiI
If you include self employed and partners in partnerships, then Trade Union members make up just 10.1% of all people who work in the Private sector, and will probably full to less than 10% within a year.
In part it is because the workers rights are enshrined in law and enforced by lawyers rather than picket lines. Auto enrolled pensions, compulsory maternity and paternity leave, compulsory living wage, EWTD, unfair dissmisal etc etc.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
Mass migration and almost non-existent growth in GDP per head make it all rather moot.
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
Just wait till the City starts its charm offensive! Talk about caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..
I'm not sure you can charm Theresa. One reason why in spite of myself I'm coming round to the idea of her as PM.
That's as may be so, but the City *needs* the free market in services and we all know what comes with that.
The City Boys won't fancy a future of living on bratwurst and dunkel in Frankfurt.
I certainly don’t think excluding Jazza is sensible. The sensible thing is for Jezza to face one competent and inspiring opponent. The membership might well opt for an opponent with vision who could unify the party.
Last time, Jazza faced 3 uninspiring opponents.
It is a harsh thing to say, but Eagle is actually worse than Kendall, Burnham or Cooper.
The referendum result was more Eagle’s fault than Jazza’s and it looks to me that -- whatever Jazza’s shortcomings -- he has been abominably treated.
Illegals paying up. To 12000 euro to get transferred by dinghy into a European country. Even fitting kids our with life jackets in the street. One in a pram FFS
Why can't the security people get access like these fly on the wall cameras
Is Len McCluskey for real, or is he on a colossal wind-up? His endorsement of Corbyn is moving from fulsome to adulatory.
Think you call it solidarity
Others would call it idiocy
Of all Unite members polled, 49% said [Corbyn should step down], with even 48% of those who said they voted Labour in 2015 agreeing. If there was a new leadership election, 44% of the Labour backers would oppose Corbyn, against 43% who would support him, the survey found.
Disappointed from a betting perspective that Lisa Nandy hasn't thrown her hat into the ring. Maybe there's still enough uncommitted Labour MPs & MEPs to enable a third candidate to enter the contest.
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
I don't think you quite understand.
The PB Leaver secretariat has decided we will have EEA/EFTA, free movement an' all. And we will kick ass in the negotiations.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
A party has to adhere to its own rules. That's a contractual matter. The rules may be badly drafted, but they are the rules. So, Corbyn has to be on the ballot.
Rachel Johnson @RachelSJohnson 14m14 minutes ago Dear @jonsnowC4 you know I love you and @Channel4News but I will say this just once. Never introduce me as sister of Boris again. Thank you
smear by association?
They inly have her on because of who her brother is.
I have some sympathy for her.
When I considered public service my mother protested in the strongest possible terms.
She's spent the first 20 years of her life as someone's daughter. The next 20 as someone's wife. Then she had 20 as someone's sister. Said she refused to be known for the rest of her life as someone's mother...
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
Fantasy. If the NEC says he needs nominations his goose is cooked. They probably won't. But if they do the game's up.
Which NEC the one in place by 5th August will cement the lefts control of the party.
SDP2 ensues no union funding bugger all membership.
I n the meantime 15 years of Tory Govt
As I say tomorrow's NEC says he is off the ballot. How fast can a leadership election be run in which only 1 candidate?
impossible to run an election by 5/8/16.
Legal challenge, nominations, ballot papers. etc
Emergency Conference are a certainty if Jezza denied a place
The Tories have shown how you don't need a ballot of members when only one candidate.
Legal challenge - yeh, I can see that would blow a hole in my predictions, but would things just continue whilst the proceedings happen or would everything be blocked?
I think it likely that a Court would grant an injunction preventing a leadership election, pending a full hearing.
If the NEC breaches Labour's constitution, in order to keep Corbyn off the ballot, Corbyn will win any legal challenge.
It has two separate pieces of legal advice. I suspect the NEC will put him on the ballot (which will destroy the party) but if it does see sense then Corbyn is done for. I doubt he would even go through with a legal challenge.
"Voters in Hungary are on a collision course with the European Union as they look certain to reject a refugee quota scheme being imposed on them by Brussels bureaucrats.A referendum is being held on October 2 and the result is expected to be an overwhelming victory for the country's hard-line Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who is leading the 'keep them out' campaign."
He has urged the country to say 'no' to all migrants – and polls suggest he is in tune with the nation with over 75 per cent of the population set to reject the EU imposed quota of 1,294 refugees.
Mr Orbán, the most vociferous anti-immigrant leader among the 28 EU nations, announced the date of the referendum days after the UK Brexit vote.
Dai Davis This is a really good blog. Just 14% of private sector employees are in a TU. Shocking how we've let this happen. https://t.co/h3zZAvtGiI
If you include self employed and partners in partnerships, then Trade Union members make up just 10.1% of all people who work in the Private sector, and will probably full to less than 10% within a year.
In part it is because the workers rights are enshrined in law and enforced by lawyers rather than picket lines. Auto enrolled pensions, compulsory maternity and paternity leave, compulsory living wage, EWTD, unfair dissmisal etc etc.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
Mass migration and almost non-existent growth in GDP per head make it all rather moot.
They are factors too, as is the skill shortage and low unemployment rate.
Dai Davis This is a really good blog. Just 14% of private sector employees are in a TU. Shocking how we've let this happen. https://t.co/h3zZAvtGiI
If you include self employed and partners in partnerships, then Trade Union members make up just 10.1% of all people who work in the Private sector, and will probably full to less than 10% within a year.
In part it is because the workers rights are enshrined in law and enforced by lawyers rather than picket lines. Auto enrolled pensions, compulsory maternity and paternity leave, compulsory living wage, EWTD, unfair dissmisal etc etc.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
Yet on the railways - private now, union membership is nearly 100% - and they are willing to stand together and strike for better conditions.
I often think people like teachers would have far better pay and conditions if they took a leaf out of the RMTs book.
Extracurricular work - forget it without payment. Marking at home? Not without overtime. Sats and DfE/Ofsted paperwork - just black it indefinitely. If they all do it then no one could touch them - Unity is Strength.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
Rachel Johnson @RachelSJohnson 14m14 minutes ago Dear @jonsnowC4 you know I love you and @Channel4News but I will say this just once. Never introduce me as sister of Boris again. Thank you
smear by association?
They inly have her on because of who her brother is.
I have some sympathy for her.
When I considered public service my mother protested in the strongest possible terms.
She's spent the first 20 years of her life as someone's daughter. The next 20 as someone's wife. Then she had 20 as someone's sister. Said she refused to be known for the rest of her life as someone's mother...
She should have considered it a noble sacrifice for the greater good of the country!
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
The left have waited over 30 years to regain control.
They will not give this up without a fight to the death.
SDP2 AN 80% CHANCE IMO
You would rather split the party than see Corbyn stand down. Telling.
I don't think he's saying what he wants just what is likely to happen...
Corbyn and the left have got the Labour name. if the coup had been done a fortnight ago there was a chance that a 1 candidate election could have been done before the new NEC was elected. That's now impossible - and given that this is taking place as those NEC votes are taken we can safely guess what side of the party is going to win those NEC seats....
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
A party has to adhere to its own rules. That's a contractual matter. The rules may be badly drafted, but they are the rules. So, Corbyn has to be on the ballot.
How many three quids will it take to pay the legal fees?
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
A party has to adhere to its own rules. That's a contractual matter. The rules may be badly drafted, but they are the rules. So, Corbyn has to be on the ballot.
Given the change in the rules, which someone posted on here the other day, it seems to be crystal clear that the rule-change was to avoid the leader-in-post needing to obtain nominations.
Even if there might be two views on the present rules as a stand-alone set, taken in conjunction with the history, I don't see how there can be any other conclusion.
Illegals paying up. To 12000 euro to get transferred by dinghy into a European country. Even fitting kids our with life jackets in the street. One in a pram FFS
Why can't the security people get access like these fly on the wall cameras
I guess a lot of the € came from the media. Security can't really do that.
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
Fantasy. If the NEC says he needs nominations his goose is cooked. They probably won't. But if they do the game's up.
Which NEC the one in place by 5th August will cement the lefts control of the party.
SDP2 ensues no union funding bugger all membership.
I n the meantime 15 years of Tory Govt
As I say tomorrow's NEC says he is off the ballot. How fast can a leadership election be run in which only 1 candidate?
impossible to run an election by 5/8/16.
Legal challenge, nominations, ballot papers. etc
Emergency Conference are a certainty if Jezza denied a place
The Tories have shown how you don't need a ballot of members when only one candidate.
Legal challenge - yeh, I can see that would blow a hole in my predictions, but would things just continue whilst the proceedings happen or would everything be blocked?
I think it likely that a Court would grant an injunction preventing a leadership election, pending a full hearing.
If the NEC breaches Labour's constitution, in order to keep Corbyn off the ballot, Corbyn will win any legal challenge.
It has two separate pieces of legal advice. I suspect the NEC will put him on the ballot (which will destroy the party) but if it does see sense then Corbyn is done for. I doubt he would even go through with a legal challenge.
I think he would. And there are plenty of socialist lawyers who would act for him.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
The Labour war might be solved rather quick than we imagine. NEC vote that Corbyn is off ballot without 51. He resigns. Can't even get the 38 needed in that case. Starts legal proceedings - gets nowhere as a court will rule that NEC is final decider of these matters.
Twitter breaks under the strain of howling Momentum (although bear in mind most of them will be away InterRailing in August) and goes off-line for a week. Deselections start in some local parties.
But, Party bigwigs and union bosses decide on a caretaker from Eagle or Owen, or maybe Benn or even Johnson or Lord Kinnock, anyone to get them through next 12 months. No election as only one candidate can meet the 38 MPs target. Crucially they take control of the branding again.
Corbyn forms own party - Momentum. Starts polling about 5%.
Thus, endeth the Corbyn era.
In your dreams.
If tomorrows NEC doesn't allow Jezza to stand.
Corbyn gets a 6-0 NEC result from members.
New NEC overules previous exclusion
Jezza wins SDP2 launches
Thus, endeth the Blairite era.
Fantasy. If the NEC says he needs nominations his goose is cooked. They probably won't. But if they do the game's up.
Which NEC the one in place by 5th August will cement the lefts control of the party.
SDP2 ensues no union funding bugger all membership.
I n the meantime 15 years of Tory Govt
As I say tomorrow's NEC says he is off the ballot. How fast can a leadership election be run in which only 1 candidate?
Emergency Conference are a certainty if Jezza denied a place
The Tories have shown how you don't need a ballot of members when only one candidate.
Legal challenge - yeh, I can see that would blow a hole in my predictions, but would things just continue whilst the proceedings happen or would everything be blocked?
I think it likely that a Court would grant an injunction preventing a leadership election, pending a full hearing.
If the NEC breaches Labour's constitution, in order to keep Corbyn off the ballot, Corbyn will win any legal challenge.
It has two separate pieces of legal advice. I suspect the NEC will put him on the ballot (which will destroy the party) but if it does see sense then Corbyn is done for. I doubt he would even go through with a legal challenge.
At least you get to vote SDP2 for a couple of elections.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
I think the prospect of an early GE being called is virtually nil. For a newly elected, untried Tory leader to risk everything, simply in the hope of gaining a further 14 months in office just doesn't stack up on any sensible basis.
Dai Davis This is a really good blog. Just 14% of private sector employees are in a TU. Shocking how we've let this happen. https://t.co/h3zZAvtGiI
If you include self employed and partners in partnerships, then Trade Union members make up just 10.1% of all people who work in the Private sector, and will probably full to less than 10% within a year.
In part it is because the workers rights are enshrined in law and enforced by lawyers rather than picket lines. Auto enrolled pensions, compulsory maternity and paternity leave, compulsory living wage, EWTD, unfair dissmisal etc etc.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
Yet on the railways - private now, union membership is nearly 100% - and they are willing to stand together and strike for better conditions.
I often think people like teachers would have far better pay and conditions if they took a leaf out of the RMTs book.
Extracurricular work - forget it without payment. Marking at home? Not without overtime. Sats and DfE/Ofsted paperwork - just black it indefinitely. If they all do it then no one could touch them - Unity is Strength.
You're not kidding. But on the railways the Unions have since privatisation negotiated brilliantly in their members interests and as disputes are not directly with Government negotiations are so much less politically charged.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
I assume intent matters when lawyers interpret stuff?
It's evidence of intent. The court would have to find that the words in the clause don't actually give effect to that intent, which I just can't see happening.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
That's the real tragedy of it all. Even if the rebels regain the leadership, they don't have a better platform, nor someone more in touch with their core voters - their life is better because they don't have to sit in parliament behind Corbyn, but when it comes to the GE it doesn't seem to me that they will be any better off?
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
I assume intent matters when lawyers interpret stuff?
It's evidence of intent. The court would have to find that the words in the clause don't actually give effect to that intent, which I just can't see happening.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You can have a vote of no confidence with a simple majority, can't you?
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
That's the real tragedy of it all. Even if the rebels regain the leadership, they don't have a better platform, nor someone more in touch with their core voters - their life is better because they don't have to sit in parliament behind Corbyn, but when it comes to the GE it doesn't seem to me that they will be any better off?
It's the same 200 odd seats whether its Eagle, Smith or Corbyn I reckon. Actually probably less if it is Eagle.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
I assume intent matters when lawyers interpret stuff?
It's evidence of intent. The court would have to find that the words in the clause don't actually give effect to that intent, which I just can't see happening.
Except that the argument moves at that point to the extent to which the NEC's constitutional role as interpreter of the rules means that their interpretation cannot be overturned?
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
Just wait till the City starts its charm offensive! Talk about caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..
I'm not sure you can charm Theresa. One reason why in spite of myself I'm coming round to the idea of her as PM.
That's as may be so, but the City *needs* the free market in services and we all know what comes with that.
The City Boys won't fancy a future of living on bratwurst and dunkel in Frankfurt.
Quite right. The City provides 11% of total UK tax revenues, can't ignore it....
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You can have a vote of no confidence with a simple majority, can't you?
Watching BBC News it is clear May will struggle to hold on to major chunks of the Leave vote if she backslides at all. Private polling must explain why she had been so strong on 'Brexit means Brexit'.
Just wait till the City starts its charm offensive! Talk about caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..
I'm not sure you can charm Theresa. One reason why in spite of myself I'm coming round to the idea of her as PM.
That's as may be so, but the City *needs* the free market in services and we all know what comes with that.
The City Boys won't fancy a future of living on bratwurst and dunkel in Frankfurt.
How VP picks would affect voters' support for presidential candidate. More likely to support Less likely to support Elizabeth Warren 21% 19% Cory Booker 13% 14% Sherrod Brown 12% 13% Tom Perez 12% 13% Julian Castro 13% 13% Tim Kaine 11% 13%
Chris Christie 17% 21% Newt Gingrich 21% 17% Mary Fallin 11% 13% Mike Pence 12% 12% Jeff Sessions 12% 12%
Pence is currently fav on BF by a distance.
The Indiana Governor is certainly up there, we will know in a week or two
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You can have a vote of no confidence with a simple majority, can't you?
Yes.
FTPA is stupid. If we do have an election this year, the next GE will be in 2021 which is the same year as the Scottish general, precisely the situation the Act was designed to avoid.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You're right in terms of the numbers, but haven't both Labour and Fallon's two taxis full already rather amusingly called for an immediate GE this very day?
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
I assume intent matters when lawyers interpret stuff?
It's evidence of intent. The court would have to find that the words in the clause don't actually give effect to that intent, which I just can't see happening.
Except that the argument moves at that point to the extent to which the NEC's constitutional role as interpreter of the rules means that their interpretation can be overturned?
The NEC must give effect to the Labour Party rules. They aren't free to interpret them.
I often think people like teachers would have far better pay and conditions if they took a leaf out of the RMTs book.
Extracurricular work - forget it without payment. Marking at home? Not without overtime. Sats and DfE/Ofsted paperwork - just black it indefinitely. If they all do it then no one could touch them - Unity is Strength.
We did try those Paul. Extra-curricular has almost disappeared from the state sector in the last five years. Emails are not answered out of school hours. OFSTED is unfortunately not something that anything can be done about, because even if everyone ignored them they just label everyone inadequate and scream and bully and harass people until they get what they want. They are also very sneaky about making things 'advisory' and then making hell when schools ignore their advice.
The real problem is with things like marking that if you don't do it, it really makes your job much more difficult because you don't know what they have and haven't understood. So that's kind of non-negotiable, and the only way to sort it out is to radically reduce class sizes so there is less of it.
But the other problem is that if we did behave like that it would hurt the children. And whatever people may think, anyone who lasts any length of time in my profession is somebody who really wants to do their best by those children. Those who are in it for themselves (Woodhead, for example) get weeded out very fast.
This is why we're less militants than the RMT, who clearly don't care about passengers.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You can have a vote of no confidence with a simple majority, can't you?
Yes.
So all that happens is a tory backbencher moves a vote of no confidence and all the tories abstain. Lib and Lab and everyone else troop through the No lobby or they also abstain and Douglas Carswell troops through No on his own and it passes 1-0.
No more unrealistic than what we have seen the last few weeks.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You're right in terms of the numbers, but haven't both Labour and Fallon's two taxis full already rather amusingly called for an immediate GE this very day?
They're just desperate to get some air time. They know its pointless.
If Corbyn is kept off the ballot against the party rules, and an electable leader then wins a GE, could the left try to install him as PM through a legal challenge?
So vis that John Rentoul tweet about possible May cabinet my thought is:
Grayling as Minister for Brexit? Clear evidence that May doesn't want us to leave as the first thing he'd do when organising a piss up in a brewery would be to ban alcohol.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You can have a vote of no confidence with a simple majority, can't you?
Yes.
FTPA is stupid. If we do have an election this year, the next GE will be in 2021 which is the same year as the Scottish general, precisely the situation the Act was designed to avoid.
Surely the next SP/WA elections will be in 2021 only if there is no general election in 2020? Otherwise they will be held then.
Or has that rule been changed and they are now officially five year terms?
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
Why would the Conservatives want a snap election? More particularly, why would Theresa May? At best she'd gain a year in power -- except once you give up five-year terms, we will likely return to four year parliaments, which is where Theresa May came in.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
I would say that's pretty clear cut. It states "challengers" need nominees. Feck all about the sitting tenant requiring them.
However....
If they declare a leadership contest when a challenger has achieved the required number of nominations as per this rule then if the present leader wishes to continue in post does the leader by default then also become a "challenger" ( for the position) and if that's so then they would I suppose need the required nominations.
The left have waited over 30 years to regain control.
They will not give this up without a fight to the death.
SDP2 AN 80% CHANCE IMO
The death of the Labour Party?
He would rather see the party destroyed than let the Rebellion win. The fact that the Rebellion comprises MPs from the soft left, centre-left, old right, blairite, and union right presumably means he thinks everyone is out of step but the hard left.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
Timing of NEC meeting is interesting. Coronation of May might concentrate minds.
1. Centrist electable Tory PM 2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
Snap election not possible, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a two thirds majority of the House of Commons to vote for one. The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
You're right in terms of the numbers, but haven't both Labour and Fallon's two taxis full already rather amusingly called for an immediate GE this very day?
Only Jon Trickett has called for one, he's a Corbyn supporter though and the MPs who have no confidence in Corbyn won't vote for an early election until they have a new leader and a chance of winning, which probably won't happen at all before 2020.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
They're relying on nothing, but a tortured reading of the rules, and wishful thinking for words that are not even there.
I am not a lawyer but where does that say that the incumbent does not need to seek nominations? It only mentions the challengers. It does not specify the rules for the incumbent, particularly not when the incumbent fails to command the support of the PLP.
So vis that John Rentoul tweet about possible May cabinet my thought is:
Grayling as Minister for Brexit? Clear evidence that May doesn't want us to leave as the first thing he'd do when organising a piss up in a brewery would be to ban alcohol.
I always thought of May and Hammond as two of the more Eurosceptic members of the cabinet, who supported Remain unenthusiastically in a bid to preserve a semblance of unity among the senior cabinet figures.
I don't think that the hype about a rethink will move either of them, and since with Osborne's fall and Johnson's descent into self-parody will leave them unchallenged at the top I really don't know why so many leavers are nervous. You've a far better hope of Brexit unde May than you would have done under Gove, Leadsom or Johnson.
Re NEC: There is other legal opinion that says the opposite, my reading is that the nomination issue only applies to challengers. However it will I presume end up in the Courts, heaven knows how long that will take, what with the need to adjourn so that the matter can be given consideration and then there are the prospect of appeals, hey ho sometime next year then.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
That's the real tragedy of it all. Even if the rebels regain the leadership, they don't have a better platform, nor someone more in touch with their core voters - their life is better because they don't have to sit in parliament behind Corbyn, but when it comes to the GE it doesn't seem to me that they will be any better off?
It's the same 200 odd seats whether its Eagle, Smith or Corbyn I reckon. Actually probably less if it is Eagle.
I agree of coUrse if there is an SDP2
Could be less as left of centre vote splits and 400+ Tories are returned.
I have to say, based on the rules posted here the PLP will lose. As far as I can see the PLP is relying entirely on precedent.
Who has sympathy for them anyway? They are trying to win an election by ensuring that the electorate's favoured candidate - a man who has not been accused of any wrongdoing - doesn't stand.
Dai Davis This is a really good blog. Just 14% of private sector employees are in a TU. Shocking how we've let this happen. https://t.co/h3zZAvtGiI
If you include self employed and partners in partnerships, then Trade Union members make up just 10.1% of all people who work in the Private sector, and will probably full to less than 10% within a year.
In part it is because the workers rights are enshrined in law and enforced by lawyers rather than picket lines. Auto enrolled pensions, compulsory maternity and paternity leave, compulsory living wage, EWTD, unfair dissmisal etc etc.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
I disagree, if Trade Unions had become redundant for the reasons you state then they would also have reduced in the public sector, and they haven't, approximately 60% and rising slowly as a percentage. They have declined, for the same reason that all cartels decline, over time individuals realise that they are not in there best interest, and there for ignore them.
Over time a workers compensation, will in total, match the value they create. It may take some time for any particular persons compensation to attenuate to this amount, especially if there are other constraints in the market. the regulations you mention like maternity leave, will affect the shape of that compensation, but not the total size of it, and not necessarily to the optimal preference of each individual worker.
Comments
Legal challenge - yeh, I can see that would blow a hole in my predictions, but would things just continue whilst the proceedings happen or would everything be blocked?
1. Centrist electable Tory PM
2. Possible snap election
Hmm.
(Go on @TheScreamingEagles you know you want to)
Nominations couple of weeks
Corbyn resigns new process required
Plus do you really think members will not force an EGM to stop the process
I don't have much truck with Boris, but if he'd never been born no one would give a **** about the views of the editor of The Lady.
The EU and Westminster have made unions redundant by rolling over for them!
If the NEC breaches Labour's constitution, in order to keep Corbyn off the ballot, Corbyn will win any legal challenge.
They will not give this up without a fight to the death.
SDP2 AN 80% CHANCE IMO
I'm not a Corbynite but I think he has been treated terribly by the Labour and wider establishment. Like it or not, he earned a mandate that should have entitled him to put a prospectus to the public in a GE. If that crashed and burnt then so be it. But the Labour Party has to get away from the relentless on-messaging and meaningless sloganizing that it descended into after 2001.
The City Boys won't fancy a future of living on bratwurst and dunkel in Frankfurt.
Last time, Jazza faced 3 uninspiring opponents.
It is a harsh thing to say, but Eagle is actually worse than Kendall, Burnham or Cooper.
The referendum result was more Eagle’s fault than Jazza’s and it looks to me that -- whatever Jazza’s shortcomings -- he has been abominably treated.
My journey to Europe.
Illegals paying up. To 12000 euro to get transferred by dinghy into a European country. Even fitting kids our with life jackets in the street. One in a pram FFS
Why can't the security people get access like these fly on the wall cameras
Of all Unite members polled, 49% said [Corbyn should step down], with even 48% of those who said they voted Labour in 2015 agreeing. If there was a new leadership election, 44% of the Labour backers would oppose Corbyn, against 43% who would support him, the survey found.
The PB Leaver secretariat has decided we will have EEA/EFTA, free movement an' all. And we will kick ass in the negotiations.
When I considered public service my mother protested in the strongest possible terms.
She's spent the first 20 years of her life as someone's daughter. The next 20 as someone's wife. Then she had 20 as someone's sister. Said she refused to be known for the rest of her life as someone's mother...
It's crystal clear now that the rules were amended by conference in 2010 to remove the very ambiguity the plotters are now claiming to rely on...
https://twitter.com/MadMazTotalRock/status/752085081947250688
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/people-britain-deserve-more-tory-8400680#ICID=sharebar_twitter
I often think people like teachers would have far better pay and conditions if they took a leaf out of the RMTs book.
Extracurricular work - forget it without payment. Marking at home? Not without overtime. Sats and DfE/Ofsted paperwork - just black it indefinitely. If they all do it then no one could touch them - Unity is Strength.
Corbyn and the left have got the Labour name. if the coup had been done a fortnight ago there was a chance that a 1 candidate election could have been done before the new NEC was elected. That's now impossible - and given that this is taking place as those NEC votes are taken we can safely guess what side of the party is going to win those NEC seats....
Even if there might be two views on the present rules as a stand-alone set, taken in conjunction with the history, I don't see how there can be any other conclusion.
As Tories get thumping majorities.
PLP started a civil war they could not win
The Conservatives might all vote for one, but why would Labour or the SNP? Labour are having a civil war and the SNP already have 56 out of a possible 59 seats and so have nothing to gain.
YOU CANNOT WIN AN ELECTION UNLESS YOU HAVE A CLEAR LEAD ON "IS A STRONG LEADER" , THE ECONOMY OR "BEST PM"
The real problem is with things like marking that if you don't do it, it really makes your job much more difficult because you don't know what they have and haven't understood. So that's kind of non-negotiable, and the only way to sort it out is to radically reduce class sizes so there is less of it.
But the other problem is that if we did behave like that it would hurt the children. And whatever people may think, anyone who lasts any length of time in my profession is somebody who really wants to do their best by those children. Those who are in it for themselves (Woodhead, for example) get weeded out very fast.
This is why we're less militants than the RMT, who clearly don't care about passengers.
While you get to vote for a fringe operation on the far left led by europhobic Marxist lunatics. Happy days.
Surely the launch music was
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyhrYis509A
No more unrealistic than what we have seen the last few weeks.
Grayling as Minister for Brexit? Clear evidence that May doesn't want us to leave as the first thing he'd do when organising a piss up in a brewery would be to ban alcohol.
Or has that rule been changed and they are now officially five year terms?
However....
If they declare a leadership contest when a challenger has achieved the required number of nominations as per this rule then if the present leader wishes to continue in post does the leader by default then also become a "challenger" ( for the position) and if that's so then they would I suppose need the required nominations.
Or not?
Bet Labour survives longer than SDP2
I give SDP2 10 years max.
I am resigning from the Lords henceforth and forthwith.
#charlie4apm
I don't think that the hype about a rethink will move either of them, and since with Osborne's fall and Johnson's descent into self-parody will leave them unchallenged at the top I really don't know why so many leavers are nervous. You've a far better hope of Brexit unde May than you would have done under Gove, Leadsom or Johnson.
Could be less as left of centre vote splits and 400+ Tories are returned.
Over time a workers compensation, will in total, match the value they create. It may take some time for any particular persons compensation to attenuate to this amount, especially if there are other constraints in the market. the regulations you mention like maternity leave, will affect the shape of that compensation, but not the total size of it, and not necessarily to the optimal preference of each individual worker.