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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley on why Jeremy Corbyn should not automatically

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    On topic.

    "A workaround to the current flawed system should be that any leader that has lost a no confidence motion in parliament should be expected to seek the required number of nominations to stand again."

    Yes but under the current system, Corbyn doesn't have to, nor is he going to, stand down.

    Flawed or not, the system supports Corbyn being on ballot regardless. Wishes and desired workarounds won't change that.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HaroldO said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    You bastard LEAVE voters. Just booked a hire car for my trip to Switzerland tomorrow

    Jeepers. The £.

    Pffffff!!

    Mind you you are at least going to a non-EU nation and one of our future likely partners in EFTA, would be interesting to see if, as a Brit, you get a warm welcome, I hope so!
    Yes indeed. I have several dinners and lunches with some Swiss dudes and dudettes, quite high up in the tourism industry.

    Will be fascinating to get their take on Brexit. In my experience, so far, Europeans are deeply intrigued by what we've done - in good and bad ways.
    I am spending Xmas in Poland, fully expect to be cross questioned by everyone I meet as to why we voted Brexit.
    I may just stay drunk the entire time.
    From my reading of European websites, the Poles are amongst the most sympathetic to Brexit.
    So, the 800k will go back ? How will I get my Polish bread ?
    No. We'll enter EEA and everyone can stay where they are. Unless the mad Leadsom wins.

    She may well do so.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Probably about 50% of the PLP, to be honest. But Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy to name a few.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I trust all true English people are cheering for our oldest ally, Portugal, against the French.

    Our old friends the French for me
    Given England has fought more wars against France than any other nation on earth, closely followed by Scotland, that is not that surprising, especially considering from the Jacobite rebellion back the Scots and French were often on the same side
    As they will be soon.
    I have me doots.

    The way the EU is responding to Brexit - more integration, hegemonic Franco-German alliance, forced euro membership - makes rejoining the EU look increasingly unpalatable by the day.

    Will Scotland really divorce from England to become a tiny colony of Brussels? Really??

    Hm. Or will they look at that famous arc of prosperity, including Iceland and Norway, and note that it is in EFTA, not the EU? Just like England?
    Did you see the latest polling among EU countries? Or don't you want to look when it doesn't fit your silly narrative.
    If May gets in we will join EFTA and the EFTA Norwegians were the most pro UK in the polling
    Agreed - I actually expect we will either way to be honest - unless Leadsom is determined to trash the UK economy completely.
    Leadsom has said quite clearly she wants no freedom of movement which means no single market, May has said she wants freedom of movement, just more controlled freedom of movement
    Oh yes but I don't believe a word that comes out of her mouth.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    alex. said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Anyone who does not limit the extent of options to their Shadow ministerial team to around 50 MPs would do better. Trying to argue that it doesn't matter if Corbyn is shite, everyone else would be shiter is just defeatism. Would you use the same argument if he emerged from the next election with 130 MPs?
    Call it defeatism if you want, but I think it's realism. Corbyn IS shite, but, after hearing from people just how AWFULLY the Remain campaign was perceived, I do genuinely believe he would do better in a general election than any of these "moderates" who, like Remain, would just be career politicians speaking in jargon, pushing forward the same old tired "steady as she goes" message.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Probably about 50% of the PLP, to be honest. But Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy to name a few.

    Danny is clear that Corbyn is the best person to lead Labour. That's a perfectly reasonable position. What it says, of course, is that Danny also believes Labour is no longer a serious party of potential government. He's absolutely right.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    edited July 2016
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
    Oh rubbish, he could potentially win whole swathes of middle England suburbia and the working class Labour heartlands which voted Leave are never going to vote Tory ever, even if some of them vote UKIP under FPTP Labour would still hold the seats. Jarvis has not been given a chance by Corbyn

    I suggest you watch a clip of Sky news today, it interviewed working class Labour voters in the north, not one had a positive word to say about Corbyn, the general tone was not up to the job, even if he had a few good ideas he was unable to communicate them, incompetent and the sooner he is replaced the better.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I got as far as 'two speed Europe' and went back to watching the footy.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/752226842770366465
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HaroldO said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    You bastard LEAVE voters. Just booked a hire car for my trip to Switzerland tomorrow

    Jeepers. The £.

    Pffffff!!

    Mind you you are at least going to a non-EU nation and one of our future likely partners in EFTA, would be interesting to see if, as a Brit, you get a warm welcome, I hope so!
    Yes indeed. I have several dinners and lunches with some Swiss dudes and dudettes, quite high up in the tourism industry.

    Will be fascinating to get their take on Brexit. In my experience, so far, Europeans are deeply intrigued by what we've done - in good and bad ways.
    I am spending Xmas in Poland, fully expect to be cross questioned by everyone I meet as to why we voted Brexit.
    I may just stay drunk the entire time.
    From my reading of European websites, the Poles are amongst the most sympathetic to Brexit.
    So, the 800k will go back ? How will I get my Polish bread ?
    No. We'll enter EEA and everyone can stay where they are. Unless the mad Leadsom wins.

    She may well do so.
    We need controls on immigration even if it means a classic British fudge, as long as low skilled migration is controlled most of the country will be happy.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
    I suspect you are underestimating the strength of the Labour brand as evidenced by the results achieved by Corbyn. I'm dubious that a GE would replicate the referendum result in terms of the issue affecting votes to the degree you fear. Mind you I'm not Labour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
    Oh rubbish, he would potentially win whole swathes of middle England suburbia and the working class Labour heartlands which voted Leave are never to vote Tory ever even if some of them vote UKIP under FPTP Labour would still hold the seats. Jarvis has not been given a chance by Corbyn

    I suggest you watch a clip of Sky news today, it interviewed working class Labour voters in the north, not one had a positive word to say about Corbyn, the general tone was not up to the job, even if he had a few good ideas he was unable to communicate them, incompetent and the sooner he is replaced the better.
    The middle England suburbia and working-class Labour heartlands which just overwhelmingly voted Leave, are not going to vote for Chuka, the Remain campaign personified.

    And I have no doubt that the working-class Labour voters didn't have a positive word to say about Corbyn, but that does not prove they would have anything more positive to say about any of the alternative candidates.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose the thinking behind keeping Corbyn off the ballot is it might cause an exodus of lefty members (presuming usual challenges)?

    The ground troops won't by and large be affected, since very few of the post GE intake care for proper campaigning with the public at large as opposed to resolutionary socialism and groupthink on social media. Nor will it be the end of the world even if the income from memberships is halved and thus falls back to the levels that allowed the party to sustain the 2015 general election campaign. As for the income from the £3 "supporters"......
    Corbyn voters are by no means limited to just the "post GE intake". And Labour members who are Corbyn-sceptic, but who will nonetheless be outraged at the PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos, will go even deeper into the long-term membership base.
    "The PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos". Your perspective, not mine. I think that Neil Kinnock had a better take on it, as has Keiran Pedley above.

    Many of the existing membership who voted for Corbyn have turned against him. But, more importantly, look at the polls and you'll see that there are all too few "Corbyn voters" amongst the wider public. Most electors think Corbyn should go and are yearning for an effective parliamentary opposition with a new leader.
    If the existing membership have turned against Corbyn, then why do the "moderates" apparently not think they could beat him if he was on the ballot?

    And there aren't that many Corbyn voters among the wider public, but in my view there would be even fewer Eagle voters in the public (or voters for any of the Labour "moderates"). To prove that, we just have to look at Corbyn's May local elections result (a win over the Tories, albeit an unspectacular win) as opposed to the Remain Campaign (a DEFEAT despite far more institutional advantages).
    There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    The problem seems to be that the unions have found a very clever way to destroy the company without technically breaking the law on unauthorised strike action (i.e. coordinated sick days).

    There's actually not much that Southern can do to improve things - if they surrender they may as well hand over the keys to the company; if they fight on their customers continue to get angry. I'd hope they are training a bunch of new drivers, but they are in a tough spot.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Probably about 50% of the PLP, to be honest. But Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy to name a few.

    Danny is clear that Corbyn is the best person to lead Labour. That's a perfectly reasonable position. What it says, of course, is that Danny also believes Labour is no longer a serious party of potential government. He's absolutely right.

    He didnt vote for Corbyn. I think you will find.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Danny565 said:

    alex. said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Anyone who does not limit the extent of options to their Shadow ministerial team to around 50 MPs would do better. Trying to argue that it doesn't matter if Corbyn is shite, everyone else would be shiter is just defeatism. Would you use the same argument if he emerged from the next election with 130 MPs?
    Call it defeatism if you want, but I think it's realism. Corbyn IS shite, but, after hearing from people just how AWFULLY the Remain campaign was perceived, I do genuinely believe he would do better in a general election than any of these "moderates" who, like Remain, would just be career politicians speaking in jargon, pushing forward the same old tired "steady as she goes" message.

    The idea that Jeremy Corbyn is not a career politician who does not speak in jargon is an intriguing one. How old is he, how long has he been an MP and what did he do before that?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose the thinking behind keeping Corbyn off the ballot is it might cause an exodus of lefty members (presuming the non far lefties who also voted for him are more prepared to stick around), rather than force the MPs to potentially have to leave if they challenge him and fail (given their actions have gone far beyond usual challenges)?

    So they WANT to lose more than half the membership??

    Where exactly do they think their ground troops and money is going to come from?
    The ground troops won't by and large be affected, since very few of the post GE intake care for proper campaigning with the public at large as opposed to resolutionary socialism and groupthink on social media. Nor will it be the end of the world even if the income from memberships is halved and thus falls back to the levels that allowed the party to sustain the 2015 general election campaign. As for the income from the £3 "supporters"......
    Corbyn voters are by no means limited to just the "post GE intake". And Labour members who are Corbyn-sceptic, but who will nonetheless be outraged at the PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos, will go even deeper into the long-term membership base.
    "The PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos". Your perspective, not mine. I think that Neil Kinnock had a better take on it, as has Keiran Pedley above.

    Many of the existing membership who voted for Corbyn have turned against him. But, more importantly, look at the polls and you'll see that there are all too few "Corbyn voters" amongst the wider public. Most electors think Corbyn should go and are yearning for an effective parliamentary opposition with a new leader.
    If the existing membership have turned against Corbyn, then why do the "moderates" apparently not think they could beat him if he was on the ballot?

    And there aren't that many Corbyn voters among the wider public, but in my view there would be even fewer Eagle voters in the public (or voters for any of the Labour "moderates"). To prove that, we just have to look at Corbyn's May local elections result (a win over the Tories, albeit an unspectacular win) as opposed to the Remain Campaign (a DEFEAT despite far more institutional advantages).
    May's local elections, where Labour got just 31% of the vote and lost seats, was one of the worst council election results of any opposition leader ever. Worse than Hague, worse than Foot, worse than Ed Miliband, worse even than IDS. May I also remind you Corbyn was part of the Remain campaign, though he was such an inept part you might not have noticed
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Probably about 50% of the PLP, to be honest. But Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy to name a few.

    Danny is clear that Corbyn is the best person to lead Labour. That's a perfectly reasonable position. What it says, of course, is that Danny also believes Labour is no longer a serious party of potential government. He's absolutely right.

    He didnt vote for Corbyn. I think you will find.

    Looks like he will this time, though.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited July 2016
    As a long time poster on here says: Do your own research.

    So I did and from a helicopter down point of view I'm not sure the procedure is certain that Corbyn needs the nominations.

    Perhaps the PLP need to just work a policy of grinding the guy down over a bit longer time span. They have time yet and a challenge now is not just seen as an end in itself but an act in a long long wearing down process.

    Corbyn is vulnerable to it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Poisonous moth ends ronaldos match

    Poisonous moth sacked for ineffective bite.
    Moth tweets: i knew i'd done my job.
    I was joking but apparently the moth now does have a twitter account.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    SO - I think if you listen carefully to Danny he's hardly a dyed in the wool Corbyn obsessive. If somebody else within the party comes up with a credible and inspiring agenda then perhaps people will listen. But that didn't happen last year and perhaps because of the need to appear loyal to Corbyn in public, we've not heard much since.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
    Oh rubbish, he would potentially win wholet been given a chance by Corbyn

    I suggest you watch a clip of Sky news today, it interviewed working class Labour voters in the north, not one had a positive word to say about Corbyn, the general tone was not up to the job, even if he had a few good ideas he was unable to communicate them, incompetent and the sooner he is replaced the better.
    The middle England suburbia and working-class Labour heartlands which just overwhelmingly voted Leave, are not going to vote for Chuka, the Remain campaign personified.

    And I have no doubt that the working-class Labour voters didn't have a positive word to say about Corbyn, but that does not prove they would have anything more positive to say about any of the alternative candidates.

    Chuka was almost entirely invisible during the referendum campaign. Just like Corbyn. The personification of Remain is David Cameron. Theresa May was on the Remain side too.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
    Oh rubbish, he would potentially win wholet been given a chance by Corbyn

    I suggest you watch a clip of Sky news today, it interviewed working class Labour voters in the north, not one had a positive word to say about Corbyn, the general tone was not up to the job, even if he had a few good ideas he was unable to communicate them, incompetent and the sooner he is replaced the better.
    The middle England suburbia and working-class Labour heartlands which just overwhelmingly voted Leave, are not going to vote for Chuka, the Remain campaign personified.

    And I have no doubt that the working-class Labour voters didn't have a positive word to say about Corbyn, but that does not prove they would have anything more positive to say about any of the alternative candidates.

    Chuka was almost entirely invisible during the referendum campaign. Just like Corbyn. The personification of Remain is David Cameron. Theresa May was on the Remain side too.

    Saw more of Chuka than any other possible leader...

  • There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.


    I just despair at the mindset of those who do not wish to win elections. How the hell do you expect to change anything substantial - 38 degrees petitions?

    I asked the household undergraduate/Corbynite how he genuinely thought it would go when he's door knocking in the Leave heartlands in Yorkshire, with Jez as leader. Even he had to admit they were utterly ruined, only a very decent local MP was preventing the seat going UKIP.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    SO - I think if you listen carefully to Danny he's hardly a dyed in the wool Corbyn obsessive. If somebody else within the party comes up with a credible and inspiring agenda then perhaps people will listen. But that didn't happen last year and perhaps because of the need to appear loyal to Corbyn in public, we've not heard much since.

    He is very clear that Corbyn is the best person to lead Labour. I respect his viewpoint, though I think it is completely wrong.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    Because they are entirely different electorates. The sea of hard-left entryists and £3 Tory idiots (step forward several PB posters) will re-elect Corbyn as they have no interest in Labour winning elections. The country wants a reasonable alternative to Conservatives. Labour's problem in a nutshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for w".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunn.
    Oh rubbish, he would potentially win whole swathes of middle England suburbia and the working class Labour heartlands which voted Leave are never to vote Tory ever even if some of them vote UKIP under FPTP Labour would still hold the seats. Jarvis has not been given a chance by Corbyn

    I suggest you watch a clip of Sky news today, it interviewed working class Labour voters in the north, not one had a positive word to say about Corbyn, the general tone was not up to the job, even if he had a few good ideas he was unable to communicate them, incompetent and the sooner he is replaced the better.
    The middle England suburbia and working-class Labour heartlands which just overwhelmingly voted Leave, are not going to v.
    Why not? May of course also backed Remain and there are plenty of suburban seats like Reading and Enfield Southgate which voted Remain and have Tory MPs and also plenty like Crawley, Worcester etc which only voted Leave by about the national average.

    I expect the working-class Labour voters might at least respect someone who wears a suit and tie or dresses smartly and does not look like Worzel Gummidge and thinks the answers to the country's problems are not all found under Karl Marx!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.

    Can't do it without power and Corbyn has other priorities.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose the thinking behind keeping Corbyn off the ballot is it might cause an exodus of lefty members (presuming the non far lefties who also voted for him are more prepared to stick around), rather than force the MPs to potentially have to leave if they challenge him and fail (given their actions have gone far beyond usual challenges)?

    So they WANT to lose more than half the membership??

    Where exactly do they think their ground troops and money is going to come from?
    The ground troops won't by and large be affected, since very few of the post GE intake care for proper campaigning with the public at large as opposed to resolutionary socialism and groupthink on social media. Nor will it be the end of the world even if the income from memberships is halved and thus falls back to the levels that allowed the party to sustain the 2015 general election campaign. As for the income from the £3 "supporters"......
    Corbyn voters are by no means limited to just the "post GE intake". And Labour members who are Corbyn-sceptic, but who will nonetheless be outraged at the PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos, will go even deeper into the long-term membership base.
    "The PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos". Your perspective, not mine. I think that Neil Kinnock had a better take on it, as has Keiran Pedley above.


    If the existing membership have turned against Corbyn, then why do the "moderates" apparently not think they could beat him if he was on the ballot?

    May's local elections, where Labour got just 31% of the vote and lost seats, was one of the worst council election results of any opposition leader ever. Worse than Hague, worse than Foot, worse than Ed Miliband, worse even than IDS. May I also remind you Corbyn was part of the Remain campaign, though he was such an inept part you might not have noticed
    The English Locals saw LAB gain seats compared to EICIPMs high point of 2012.

    Agreed that wasnt the media narrative who slavishly repeated the Tory line you just quoted.

    However reality is not the PLPs strong suit as i note they now use the Tory narrative from the night

    Why should we expect anything better
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Monty said:

    surbiton said:

    Monty said:

    Danny565 said:

    Regardless of what technicalities can be found for Corbyn to be kept off the ballot, the bottom line is:

    If Angela Eagle (or any other "moderate") thinks she can't even beat CORBYN in an election, how the hell is she going to have a chance against a far more formidable opponent in the Tories at the next General Election??

    utshell.
    And, the person who will beat the Tories is a wet lettuce ? You must be joking !
    Eagle is obviously a stalking horse. Surely, you can see that?

    Stalking horse for who? Which specific candidate would perform better in a general election than Corbyn would?

    "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same thing as "there is someone else available who would do better than Corbyn".
    Chuka Umunna, Dan Jarvis to name but a few, however what Labour needs now is not an election winner but someone to steady the ship, a Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
    Chuka Umunna would lead to utter wipeout for Labour outside of London. Even more than anyone else, he really is the Remain Campaign personified.

    I still know absolutely nothing about Dan Jarvis, which in some ways is quite telling in itself (a truly talented politician would surely have done SOMETHING interesting after 5 years in parliament??).
    Oh rubbish, he would potentially win wholet been given a chance by Corbyn
    as unable to communicate them, incompetent and the sooner he is replaced the better.
    The middle England suburbia and working-class Labour heartlands which just overwhelmingly voted Leave, are not going to vote for Chuka, the Remain campaign personified.

    And I have no doubt that the working-class Labour voters didn't have a positive word to say about Corbyn, but that does not prove they would have anything more positive to say about any of the alternative candidates.

    Chuka was almost entirely invisible during the referendum campaign. Just like Corbyn. The personification of Remain is David Cameron. Theresa May was on the Remain side too.

    Chuka is urban metrosexual Labour - that is why he will not play well in the Northern seats. He just doesn't have the reach. Plus his flipflopping last year just makes him look weak.

    Most of us know what he wants to keep hidden. He needs to get over and start rebuilding some honesty points.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It was interesting to read the arguments on LabourLeave.

    It just shows how strange and diverse motivations were during EUref that people like me, Charles, Sean and Plato were on the same side as the leader of ASLEF.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:
    Portugal on penalties is my hunch.
  • Time for someone to open a book on how long before Sean gets himself banned again....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose the thinking behind keeping Corbyn off the ballot is it might cause an exodus of lefty members (presuming the non far lefties who also voted for him are more prepared to stick around), rather than force the MPs to potentially have to leave if they challenge him and fail (given their actions have gone far beyond usual challenges)?

    So they WANT to lose more than half the membership??

    Where exactly do they think their ground troops and money is going to come from?
    The ground troops won't by and large be affected, since very few of the post GE intake care for proper campaigning with the public at large as opposed to resolutionary socialism and groupthink on social media. Nor will it be the end of the world even if the income from memberships is halved and thus falls back to the levels that allowed the party to sustain the 2015 general election campaign. As for the income from the £3 "supporters"......
    Corbyn voters are by no means limited to just the "post GE intake". And Labour members who are Corbyn-sceptic, but who will nonetheless be outraged at the PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos, will go even deeper into the long-term membership base.
    "The PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos". Your perspective, not mine. I think that Neil Kinnock had a better take on it, as has Keiran Pedley above.


    If the existing membership have turned against Corbyn, then why do the "moderates" apparently not think they could beat him if he was on the ballot?

    May's local elections, where Labour got just 31% of the vote and lost seats, was one of the worst council election results of any opposition leader ever. Worse than Hague, worse than Foot, worse than Ed Miliband, worse even than IDS. May I also remind you Corbyn was part of the Remain campaign, though he was such an inept part you might not have noticed
    The English Locals saw LAB gain seats compared to EICIPMs high point of 2012.

    Agreed that wasnt the media narrative who slavishly repeated the Tory line you just quoted.

    However reality is not the PLPs strong suit as i note they now use the Tory narrative from the night

    Why should we expect anything better
    Labour lost 18 seats and their 31% voteshare was risible
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just had a thought; if Nick Palmer really believes that Blair "made an honest mistake" over Iraq , then he can't be a pure Corbynite so surely he must be purged if Jez wins?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Has anyone asked the question about who would contend to lead a breakaway Labour/SDP party?
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    edited July 2016


    There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.


    I just despair at the mindset of those who do not wish to win elections. How the hell do you expect to change anything substantial - 38 degrees petitions?

    I asked the household undergraduate/Corbynite how he genuinely thought it would go when he's door knocking in the Leave heartlands in Yorkshire, with Jez as leader. Even he had to admit they were utterly ruined, only a very decent local MP was preventing the seat going UKIP.

    Yep, it's utterly insane. We urgently need a viable left of centre party with relevant policies for the 21st century. It looks like the Conservatives are veering to the right again. The country needs a viable opposition. If Labour cannot reform itself and become that party then a new one is needed.
    Oh, and we urgently need electoral reform regardless.
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226

    TSE in the fashion police? The world has gone truly mad.

    I though Corbyn unusually well turned out this morning. At least his clothes fitted for once!
    Works for David Beckham, who I think is often considered one of Britain's best dressed men

    http://milton-green.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/David-Beckham-In-Ralph-Lauren-Wimbledon-Championships.jpg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Poisonous moth ends ronaldos match

    Poisonous moth sacked for ineffective bite.
    Moth tweets: i knew i'd done my job.
    I was joking but apparently the moth now does have a twitter account.
    I think it was a Silver Y moth. They left the lights on all last night, and turned the stadium into the world's largest moth trap....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Has anyone asked the question about who would contend to lead a breakaway Labour/SDP party?

    Surely that would have to go to arbitration?

    Any update from Charlie Falconer?
  • SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HaroldO said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    You bastard LEAVE voters. Just booked a hire car for my trip to Switzerland tomorrow

    Jeepers. The £.

    Pffffff!!

    Mind you you are at least going to a non-EU nation and one of our future likely partners in EFTA, would be interesting to see if, as a Brit, you get a warm welcome, I hope so!
    Yes indeed. I have several dinners and lunches with some Swiss dudes and dudettes, quite high up in the tourism industry.

    Will be fascinating to get their take on Brexit. In my experience, so far, Europeans are deeply intrigued by what we've done - in good and bad ways.
    I am spending Xmas in Poland, fully expect to be cross questioned by everyone I meet as to why we voted Brexit.
    I may just stay drunk the entire time.
    From my reading of European websites, the Poles are amongst the most sympathetic to Brexit.
    So, the 800k will go back ? How will I get my Polish bread ?
    No. We'll enter EEA and everyone can stay where they are. Unless the mad Leadsom wins.

    She may well do so.
    Yes. She might. If she markets that anti-sharia, anti-PC manifesto - a kind of UKIP-lite - she will appeal to many Tory members. I felt a visceral, atavistic twinge myself.

    HOWEVER it should be remembered most active Tory members are, by definition, bourgeois property owners. They REALLY won't like the economic threat of Hard Brexit.

    May will win, I think, because of this economic fearfulness. I'd be fairly amazed if Tories go for a second revolution, after the turmoil of Brexit.
    Lets hope so.

    Hard Brexit might end up with no Brexit and lefty told you so-ing until the cows come home.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I wonder what Marine Le Pen makes of this. 7 out of 11 French players on the pitch are black.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose the thinking behind keeping Corbyn off the ballot is it might cause an exodus of lefty members (presuming the non far lefties who also voted for him are more prepared to stick around), rather than force the MPs to potentially have to leave if they challenge him and fail (given their actions have gone far beyond usual challenges)?

    So they WANT to lose more than half the membership??

    Where exactly do they think their ground troops and money is going to come from?
    The ground troops won't by and large be affected, since very few of the post GE intake care for proper campaigning with the public at large as opposed to resolutionary socialism and groupthink on social media. Nor will it be the end of the world even if the income from memberships is halved and thus falls back to the levels that allowed the party to sustain the 2015 general election campaign. As for the income from the £3 "supporters"......
    Corbyn voters are by no means limited to just the "post GE intake". And Labour members who are Corbyn-sceptic, but who will nonetheless be outraged at the PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos, will go even deeper into the long-term membership base.
    "The PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos". Your perspective, not mine. I think that Neil Kinnock had a better take on it, as has Keiran Pedley above.


    If the existing membership have turned against Corbyn, then why do the "moderates" apparently not think they could beat him if he was on the ballot?

    May's local elections, where Labour got just 31% of the vote and lost seats, was one of the worst council election results of any opposition leader ever. Worse than Hague, worse than Foot, worse than Ed Miliband, worse even than IDS. May I also remind you Corbyn was part of the Remain campaign, though he was such an inept part you might not have noticed
    The English Locals saw LAB gain seats compared to EICIPMs high point of 2012.

    Agreed that wasnt the media narrative who slavishly repeated the Tory line you just quoted.

    However reality is not the PLPs strong suit as i note they now use the Tory narrative from the night

    Why should we expect anything better
    Labour lost 18 seats and their 31% voteshare was risible
    HY - genuinely interrstdd, what are your political views at the moment? Don't I recall you being, at some point, a Tory activist?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Danny565 said:



    "The PLP trying to rig leadership elections and to split the party for their own egos". Your perspective, not mine. I think that Neil Kinnock had a better take on it, as has Keiran Pedley above.

    Many of the existing membership who voted for Corbyn have turned against him. But, more importantly, look at the polls and you'll see that there are all too few "Corbyn voters" amongst the wider public. Most electors think Corbyn should go and are yearning for an effective parliamentary opposition with a new leader.

    If the existing membership have turned against Corbyn, then why do the "moderates" apparently not think they could beat him if he was on the ballot?

    And there aren't that many Corbyn voters among the wider public, but in my view there would be even fewer Eagle voters in the public (or voters for any of the Labour "moderates"). To prove that, we just have to look at Corbyn's May local elections result (a win over the Tories, albeit an unspectacular win) as opposed to the Remain Campaign (a DEFEAT despite far more institutional advantages).
    Not what I said. I think there's quite a chance that Corbyn could be reelected by a widened Labour membership now wholly and utterly out of touch with British political opinion. The extent to which the party has opened itself up to entryism from the far left and anyone with its worst interests at heart ensures that. That's why the only check left in the system that gives the parliamentary party some say is now so important, and rightly so for the reasons Kieran Pedley outlines above.

    You make risible claims that the outcome of the referendum can be taken as a poll on the political support for an alternative leader to Corbyn, whoever that might be, and you're just using them to try and avoid addressing my point about Corbyn's manifest unpopularity with the wider public. Nor were the 2015 May elections the win for Labour that you claim when you focus on the national vote share, which given polling since may well turn out to be the least bad of the low points under Corbyn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    John_M said:

    It was interesting to read the arguments on LabourLeave.

    It just shows how strange and diverse motivations were during EUref that people like me, Charles, Sean and Plato were on the same side as the leader of ASLEF.

    LabourLeave had the best campaign. If only Corbyn had fronted it - he could have owned the result, and told a vast swathe of the unconnected and disaffected that he represented their worries....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    John_M said:

    It was interesting to read the arguments on LabourLeave.

    It just shows how strange and diverse motivations were during EUref that people like me, Charles, Sean and Plato were on the same side as the leader of ASLEF.

    You mean the Union which blackmails commuters ?
  • DaveDaveDaveDave Posts: 76
    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    edited July 2016
    A cat gives its opinion on the Brexit strategy: I think you should demand to leave multiple times and then when the door is opened, just sit there and stare at it. That's exactly what I would do.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    The East Coast line was nationalised. I don't think DB is privately owned.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    surbiton said:

    I wonder what Marine Le Pen makes of this. 7 out of 11 French players on the pitch are black.

    Any Muslims or Jews? Aren't they the bigger priorities for the FN?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    surbiton said:

    John_M said:

    It was interesting to read the arguments on LabourLeave.

    It just shows how strange and diverse motivations were during EUref that people like me, Charles, Sean and Plato were on the same side as the leader of ASLEF.

    You mean the Union which blackmails commuters ?
    Thought the Southern dispute was RMT? In any event, a non sequitur. I'm hardly a union fellow traveller. ASLEF want to renationalise the railways. EU means they can't.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    edited July 2016
    Monty said:


    There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.

    Back to what though? Sloganising, pledges and edstones?

    Because it was bloody clear from listening to Cooper, Burnham and Kendall last summer that none of them had any idea what Labour was supposed to be about. Which was why Corbyn won.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2016

    surbiton said:

    I wonder what Marine Le Pen makes of this. 7 out of 11 French players on the pitch are black.

    Any Muslims or Jews? Aren't they the bigger priorities for the FN?
    Sissoko , Sagna are definitely Muslims. But Benzema was not picked. Cantona thought it was political.
  • Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    The problem seems to be that the unions have found a very clever way to destroy the company without technically breaking the law on unauthorised strike action (i.e. coordinated sick days).

    There's actually not much that Southern can do to improve things - if they surrender they may as well hand over the keys to the company; if they fight on their customers continue to get angry. I'd hope they are training a bunch of new drivers, but they are in a tough spot.
    The Company should try a company doctor I once knew socially who was sent in to tackle sickness levels in a male dominated factory and instituted a new policy of a mandatory full assessment by the Doc everytime a worker returned to work. This doctor had a few unsavoury tactics one of which included a rectal exam where the worker did not see the doc putting a glove on and then swiftly turning the worker around and asking them to open their mouth and say ahh with ungloved fingers. The workers did not know that the glove was ever there. The problem was cured.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    edited July 2016
    In all this talk about Labour losing their northern WWC seats to UKIP if they go with a Chuka type candidate, there are two things to consider:

    1) Did Northern Labour Voters actually break for Leave in massive numbers, or was it actually the case that former Non-Voters plus UKIP swung Sunderland etc?

    2) How sure can we be that those same people will turnout at a GE and vote UKIP?

    I think in reality Labour's northern seats are safer than we assume. I would hazard a guess that they are already close to core vote in those seats, it's just that the opposition is split between UKIP and and Non-Voters so Labour win regardless.

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    They need old Blair-now Cameron seats. Corbyn can't do that, a Chuka type could, in 2020 the tories will be the 10 year incumbent government, presiding most likely over a brexit recession, with a PM far less charismatic than DC was. 2020 is there for the taking.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited July 2016
    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    I don't really get the desire for railway nationalisation. The railways are so much better than when I was younger. More timely, better furnished, lots of cheap advance tickets available. More competition, not less, is surely the answer...

    Edit: that said, my experiences of Southern are less positive. Too big a network?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.


    I just despair at the mindset of those who do not wish to win elections. How the hell do you expect to change anything substantial - 38 degrees petitions?

    I asked the household undergraduate/Corbynite how he genuinely thought it would go when he's door knocking in the Leave heartlands in Yorkshire, with Jez as leader. Even he had to admit they were utterly ruined, only a very decent local MP was preventing the seat going UKIP.



    The hard left disdains Parliamentary democracy. It is bourgeois. They hate the fact that Labour has always embraced it. The hard left believes that true socialism can only be achieved from the streets, when the proletariat rises up to take control. Thus, for Corbyn and his cult winning general elections is not a priority. In fact, in many ways harsh Tory rule is the preferred option as, so the thinking goes, this will speed the day the workers revolt. It's all very 1960s and 1970s. And, of course, it is complete nonsense. But it's what Corbyn and his chums genuinely believe.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    Monty said:


    There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.

    Back to what though? Sloganising, pledges and edstones?

    Because it was bloody clear from listening to Cooper, Burnham and Kendall last summer that none of them had any idea what Labour was supposed to be about. Which was why Corbyn won.
    Kendall started promisingly but then seemed to disappear in a fog of... vapid bilge after the campaign got going.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    There was no tribal Labour vote in the referendum. There would be in a General Election.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Monty said:


    There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.

    Back to what though? Sloganising, pledges and edstones?

    Because it was bloody clear from listening to Cooper, Burnham and Kendall last summer that none of them had any idea what Labour was supposed to be about. Which was why Corbyn won.
    Not disagreeing with that. But the answer to Labour's problem is not Corbyn. He is a distraction that is preventing the party from redefining itself for 21st century.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I wonder what Marine Le Pen makes of this. 7 out of 11 French players on the pitch are black.

    Any Muslims or Jews? Aren't they the bigger priorities for the FN?
    Sissoko , Sagna are definitely Muslims. But Benzema was not picked. Cantona thought it was political.
    Ngolo Kante is muslim too.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    In all this talk about Labour losing their northern WWC seats to UKIP if they go with a Chuka type candidate, there are two things to consider:

    1) Did Northern Labour Voters actually break for Leave in massive numbers, or was it actually the case that former Non-Voters plus UKIP swung Sunderland etc?

    2) How sure can we be that those same people will turnout at a GE and vote UKIP?

    I think in reality Labour's northern seats are safer than we assume. I would hazard a guess that they are already close to core vote in those seats, it's just that the opposition is split between UKIP and and Non-Voters so Labour win regardless.

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    They need old Blair-now Cameron seats. Corbyn can't do that, a Chuka type could, in 2020 the tories will be the 10 year incumbent government, presiding most likely over a brexit recession, with a PM far less charismatic than DC was. 2020 is there for the taking.

    Sunderland was 55% Labour 45% Others. I believe 80% of Others voted Leave.

    80% x 45% + 45% x 55% = 60%. So, about 45% of Labour voters in Sunderland voted Leave. Because there was a higher turnout that share is even less.
  • There has always been a strain of left wing politics that believes that the British people will come running if we only offer a true ideologically pure left alternative. And if they don't it doesn't matter as at least we are pure.
    Corbyn has harnessed that howl of rage and attracted the usual suspects from the SWP and Greens who don't want to win elections.
    Those of us who do see the value in actually getting elected and having the opportunity to implement policies need to get the party back.
    I just despair at the mindset of those who do not wish to win elections. How the hell do you expect to change anything substantial - 38 degrees petitions?

    I asked the household undergraduate/Corbynite how he genuinely thought it would go when he's door knocking in the Leave heartlands in Yorkshire, with Jez as leader. Even he had to admit they were utterly ruined, only a very decent local MP was preventing the seat going UKIP.



    The hard left disdains Parliamentary democracy. It is bourgeois. They hate the fact that Labour has always embraced it. The hard left believes that true socialism can only be achieved from the streets, when the proletariat rises up to take control. Thus, for Corbyn and his cult winning general elections is not a priority. In fact, in many ways harsh Tory rule is the preferred option as, so the thinking goes, this will speed the day the workers revolt. It's all very 1960s and 1970s. And, of course, it is complete nonsense. But it's what Corbyn and his chums genuinely believe.



    This type of madness just brings it home to me that, if it were not for the Scottish constitutional question, I'd be in the Lib Dems. The extreme wings of Blue and Red are MENTAL.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited July 2016

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    I don't think that's right, actually. Labour need to get 326 seats to get a majority (301 if the seat reduction goes through). The breakdown of the opposition parties doesn't matter.

    Unless they're going for the idea of "everyone who isn't a Tory is anti-Tory", which didn't work out in 2010 and backfired on Labour when various people tried to put it forward in 2015.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    England are having a good final. The ref has the calls right.

    Portugal are tough to play against. They have played this way throughout.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited July 2016

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    The problem seems to be that the unions have found a very clever way to destroy the company without technically breaking the law on unauthorised strike action (i.e. coordinated sick days).

    There's actually not much that Southern can do to improve things - if they surrender they may as well hand over the keys to the company; if they fight on their customers continue to get angry. I'd hope they are training a bunch of new drivers, but they are in a tough spot.
    The Company should try a company doctor I once knew socially who was sent in to tackle sickness levels in a male dominated factory and instituted a new policy of a mandatory full assessment by the Doc everytime a worker returned to work. This doctor had a few unsavoury tactics one of which included a rectal exam where the worker did not see the doc putting a glove on and then swiftly turning the worker around and asking them to open their mouth and say ahh with ungloved fingers. The workers did not know that the glove was ever there. The problem was cured.
    Good luck with that with railwaymen. I doubt the doctor would last the morning before being admitted to casualty with compound jaw fractures and a badly broken nose
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    I don't think that's right, actually. Labour need to get 326 seats to get a majority (301 if the seat reduction goes through). The breakdown of the opposition parties doesn't matter.

    Unless they're going for the idea of "everyone who isn't a Tory is anti-Tory", which didn't work out in 2010 and backfired on Labour when various people tried to put it forward in 2015.
    Labour's biggest problem is it needs seats in Scotland again.

    Or Scottish independence.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797

    In all this talk about Labour losing their northern WWC seats to UKIP if they go with a Chuka type candidate, there are two things to consider:

    1) Did Northern Labour Voters actually break for Leave in massive numbers, or was it actually the case that former Non-Voters plus UKIP swung Sunderland etc?

    2) How sure can we be that those same people will turnout at a GE and vote UKIP?

    I think in reality Labour's northern seats are safer than we assume. I would hazard a guess that they are already close to core vote in those seats, it's just that the opposition is split between UKIP and and Non-Voters so Labour win regardless.

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    They need old Blair-now Cameron seats. Corbyn can't do that, a Chuka type could, in 2020 the tories will be the 10 year incumbent government, presiding most likely over a brexit recession, with a PM far less charismatic than DC was. 2020 is there for the taking.

    Can I ask you where you live? Trust me, as someone who lives up North, Labour is a goner around here. The only reason they win is inertia and the lack of another party to vote for...

    UKIP are perfectly positioned to be that other party....
  • Mortimer said:

    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    I don't really get the desire for railway nationalisation. The railways are so much better than when I was younger. More timely, better furnished, lots of cheap advance tickets available. More competition, not less, is surely the answer...

    Edit: that said, my experiences of Southern are less positive. Too big a network?
    If BR had had the £5 billion a year subsidy that this lot get rather than the less than one billion a year they got things would have been somewhat different.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    One of my most deeply held beliefs is that the British people have not really changed nearly as much as the liberal metro commentariat would have us believe. The Tory party in the country is especially untouched by the vagaries of modernisation.
    We Conservatives are being offered a choice between someone who likes us, our values and believes we can win with them and someone who seems to think our Blairite opponents still hold all the trump cards and that our best chance lies in aping them.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    They've been good for Southampton fans, Fonte and Soares have been pretty impressive
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.


    It's like every team in Europe is now managed by Louis van Gaal. Just shite to watch.

    Thank God for Iceland.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    I don't think that's right, actually. Labour need to get 326 seats to get a majority (301 if the seat reduction goes through). The breakdown of the opposition parties doesn't matter.

    Unless they're going for the idea of "everyone who isn't a Tory is anti-Tory", which didn't work out in 2010 and backfired on Labour when various people tried to put it forward in 2015.
    Labour's biggest problem is it needs seats in Scotland again.

    Or Scottish independence.
    From an electoral arithmetic POV, the maintenance of the Union is very attractive for the Tories - a Union in which Labour increasingly only have a hope in urban English and Welsh seats....
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346

    One of my most deeply held beliefs is that the British people have not really changed nearly as much as the liberal metro commentariat would have us believe. The Tory party in the country is especially untouched by the vagaries of modernisation.
    We Conservatives are being offered a choice between someone who likes us, our values and believes we can win with them and someone who seems to think our Blairite opponents still hold all the trump cards and that our best chance lies in aping them.

    Great, please go with the right wing lunatic. I'd like Labour to have a chance again.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    They've been good for Southampton fans, Fonte and Soares have been pretty impressive
    Just poor for anyone who, you know, enjoys actual football.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    I don't really get the desire for railway nationalisation. The railways are so much better than when I was younger. More timely, better furnished, lots of cheap advance tickets available. More competition, not less, is surely the answer...

    Edit: that said, my experiences of Southern are less positive. Too big a network?
    If BR had had the £5 billion a year subsidy that this lot get rather than the less than one billion a year they got things would have been somewhat different.
    Sure, sure - but it didn't; and wasn't the main reason for privatisation the recognition that investment was required but not forthcoming with BR a state vehicle?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited July 2016
    surbiton said:

    In all this talk about Labour losing their northern WWC seats to UKIP if they go with a Chuka type candidate, there are two things to consider:

    1) Did Northern Labour Voters actually break for Leave in massive numbers, or was it actually the case that former Non-Voters plus UKIP swung Sunderland etc?

    2) How sure can we be that those same people will turnout at a GE and vote UKIP?

    I think in reality Labour's northern seats are safer than we assume. I would hazard a guess that they are already close to core vote in those seats, it's just that the opposition is split between UKIP and and Non-Voters so Labour win regardless.

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    They need old Blair-now Cameron seats. Corbyn can't do that, a Chuka type could, in 2020 the tories will be the 10 year incumbent government, presiding most likely over a brexit recession, with a PM far less charismatic than DC was. 2020 is there for the taking.

    Sunderland was 55% Labour 45% Others. I believe 80% of Others voted Leave.

    80% x 45% + 45% x 55% = 60%. So, about 45% of Labour voters in Sunderland voted Leave. Because there was a higher turnout that share is even less.
    Why do u think others was 80% Leave the Tories do best in the ahem "poshest" parts of Sunderland where most of the 38% Remain vote should have come from.

    If Labour split 40% Leave then outside London, Brighton, Manchester city, Bristol, Cardiff and Liverpool which are safe for Labour as ukip do badly here then the Labour vote was majority just about Leave.
  • Monty said:

    One of my most deeply held beliefs is that the British people have not really changed nearly as much as the liberal metro commentariat would have us believe. The Tory party in the country is especially untouched by the vagaries of modernisation.
    We Conservatives are being offered a choice between someone who likes us, our values and believes we can win with them and someone who seems to think our Blairite opponents still hold all the trump cards and that our best chance lies in aping them.

    Great, please go with the right wing lunatic. I'd like Labour to have a chance again.
    There seem to be several here taking that view. Alas you are the only one honest about it (although unlike them I dont think you are being serious)
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    SeanT said:

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    Almost every game has been poor. A deeply mediocre tournament, a real shame after the last World Cup.

    England were amongst the worst, of course.
    There's been a few good games. Wales v Belgium. Croatia were good fun too. But generally poor for some reason. Not sure why.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Mortimer said:

    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    I don't really get the desire for railway nationalisation. The railways are so much better than when I was younger. More timely, better furnished, lots of cheap advance tickets available. More competition, not less, is surely the answer...

    Edit: that said, my experiences of Southern are less positive. Too big a network?
    Many of us hark back to a golden age (for ourselves). Mine is the late eighties/early nineties.

    For others (like some union leaders) its the 60s and 70s when you had a triumvirate of the miners, railwaymen and steel workers who had real power. We often forget how pervasive state control was back then.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,261
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I trust all true English people are cheering for our oldest ally, Portugal, against the French.

    Our old friends the French for me
    Given England has fought more wars against France than any other nation on earth, closely followed by Scotland, that is not that surprising, especially considering from the Jacobite rebellion back the Scots and French were often on the same side
    As they will be soon.
    I have me doots.

    The way the EU is responding to Brexit - more integration, hegemonic Franco-German alliance, forced euro membership - makes rejoining the EU look increasingly unpalatable by the day.

    Will Scotland really divorce from England to become a tiny colony of Brussels? Really??

    Hm. Or will they look at that famous arc of prosperity, including Iceland and Norway, and note that it is in EFTA, not the EU? Just like England?
    It will be the former
    So Scotland will leave the UK, but not join the EU?
    I expect we will join the EU
    Not in your lifetime Malcolm. Or mine.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Monty said:

    One of my most deeply held beliefs is that the British people have not really changed nearly as much as the liberal metro commentariat would have us believe. The Tory party in the country is especially untouched by the vagaries of modernisation.
    We Conservatives are being offered a choice between someone who likes us, our values and believes we can win with them and someone who seems to think our Blairite opponents still hold all the trump cards and that our best chance lies in aping them.

    Great, please go with the right wing lunatic. I'd like Labour to have a chance again.
    Such is the state of Labour outside of metropolitan areas, Leadsom would probably win enough seats to keep Labour out of power...
  • Mortimer said:

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    I don't think that's right, actually. Labour need to get 326 seats to get a majority (301 if the seat reduction goes through). The breakdown of the opposition parties doesn't matter.

    Unless they're going for the idea of "everyone who isn't a Tory is anti-Tory", which didn't work out in 2010 and backfired on Labour when various people tried to put it forward in 2015.
    Labour's biggest problem is it needs seats in Scotland again.

    Or Scottish independence.
    From an electoral arithmetic POV, the maintenance of the Union is very attractive for the Tories - a Union in which Labour increasingly only have a hope in urban English and Welsh seats....
    And the only real hope for Scottish Labour is to reinvent themselves as a left of centre party in a post Indy Scotland, as they've bottled the constitutional Q AGAIN. The Tories have established themselves to the right of the SNP, as the defenders of the UJ.

    Labour still can't grasp this, however, and still think the electorate will come around, clinging to the hope that each defeat is 'peak SNP'.

    The Tories are playing them like a banjo on each side of the border.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Mortimer said:

    Monty said:

    One of my most deeply held beliefs is that the British people have not really changed nearly as much as the liberal metro commentariat would have us believe. The Tory party in the country is especially untouched by the vagaries of modernisation.
    We Conservatives are being offered a choice between someone who likes us, our values and believes we can win with them and someone who seems to think our Blairite opponents still hold all the trump cards and that our best chance lies in aping them.

    Great, please go with the right wing lunatic. I'd like Labour to have a chance again.
    Such is the state of Labour outside of metropolitan areas, Leadsom would probably win enough seats to keep Labour out of power...
    If Corbyn goes, that complacency goes too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I trust all true English people are cheering for our oldest ally, Portugal, against the French.

    Our old friends the French for me
    Given England has fought more wars against France than any other nation on earth, closely followed by Scotland, that is not that surprising, especially considering from the Jacobite rebellion back the Scots and French were often on the same side
    As they will be soon.
    I have me doots.

    The way the EU is responding to Brexit - more integration, hegemonic Franco-German alliance, forced euro membership - makes rejoining the EU look increasingly unpalatable by the day.

    Will Scotland really divorce from England to become a tiny colony of Brussels? Really??

    Hm. Or will they look at that famous arc of prosperity, including Iceland and Norway, and note that it is in EFTA, not the EU? Just like England?
    It will be the former
    So Scotland will leave the UK, but not join the EU?
    I expect we will join the EU
    Not in your lifetime Malcolm. Or mine.
    You think Scotland will never leave then?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    nunu said:

    surbiton said:

    In all this talk about Labour losing their northern WWC seats to UKIP if they go with a Chuka type candidate, there are two things to consider:

    1) Did Northern Labour Voters actually break for Leave in massive numbers, or was it actually the case that former Non-Voters plus UKIP swung Sunderland etc?

    2) How sure can we be that those same people will turnout at a GE and vote UKIP?

    I think in reality Labour's northern seats are safer than we assume. I would hazard a guess that they are already close to core vote in those seats, it's just that the opposition is split between UKIP and and Non-Voters so Labour win regardless.

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    They need old Blair-now Cameron seats. Corbyn can't do that, a Chuka type could, in 2020 the tories will be the 10 year incumbent government, presiding most likely over a brexit recession, with a PM far less charismatic than DC was. 2020 is there for the taking.

    Sunderland was 55% Labour 45% Others. I believe 80% of Others voted Leave.

    80% x 45% + 45% x 55% = 60%. So, about 45% of Labour voters in Sunderland voted Leave. Because there was a higher turnout that share is even less.
    Why do u think others was 80% Leave the Tories do best in the ahem "poshest" parts of Sunderland where most of the 38% Remain vote should have come from.

    If Labour split 40% Leave then outside London, Brighton, Manchester city, Bristol, Cardiff and Liverpool which are safe for Labour as ukip do badly here then the Labour vote was majority just about Leave.
    Ukip was 25% in Sunderland, so 80% of others doesn't seem unlikely.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    I don't really get the desire for railway nationalisation. The railways are so much better than when I was younger. More timely, better furnished, lots of cheap advance tickets available. More competition, not less, is surely the answer...

    Edit: that said, my experiences of Southern are less positive. Too big a network?
    If BR had had the £5 billion a year subsidy that this lot get rather than the less than one billion a year they got things would have been somewhat different.
    Sure, sure - but it didn't; and wasn't the main reason for privatisation the recognition that investment was required but not forthcoming with BR a state vehicle?
    The source of the money is the same - you and I the taxpayer.

    No, privatisation was so they could do to the railways what they did to the coal mines. However the TOCs were good at selling the product, passenger numbers went up and the government and the road lobby to their utter horror realised that the rail lobby which had vanished in 1948 upon nationalisation - giving the road lobby free rein - had been reborn and was back with a venegence.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Monty said:

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    They've been good for Southampton fans, Fonte and Soares have been pretty impressive
    Just poor for anyone who, you know, enjoys actual football.
    Quality defending is part of actual football, and it helps win tournaments
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Labour needs to take seats off of Tories. A seat won from a Tory is +2 for Labour (+1 Labour, -1 Tory), a seat won from a lib dem or SNP is only +1 for Labour (+1 Labour, 0 Tory).

    I don't think that's right, actually. Labour need to get 326 seats to get a majority (301 if the seat reduction goes through). The breakdown of the opposition parties doesn't matter.

    Unless they're going for the idea of "everyone who isn't a Tory is anti-Tory", which didn't work out in 2010 and backfired on Labour when various people tried to put it forward in 2015.
    Labour's biggest problem is it needs seats in Scotland again.

    Or Scottish independence.
    From an electoral arithmetic POV, the maintenance of the Union is very attractive for the Tories - a Union in which Labour increasingly only have a hope in urban English and Welsh seats....
    And the only real hope for Scottish Labour is to reinvent themselves as a left of centre party in a post Indy Scotland, as they've bottled the constitutional Q AGAIN. The Tories have established themselves to the right of the SNP, as the defenders of the UJ.

    Labour still can't grasp this, however, and still think the electorate will come around, clinging to the hope that each defeat is 'peak SNP'.

    The Tories are playing them like a banjo on each side of the border.
    Whisper it, but if we can pull off a soft leave that also dramatically reduces the impact on those most left behind by globalisation, there are up to 20% of the English and a good number of the Scottish electorate up for grabs...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    Almost every game has been poor. A deeply mediocre tournament, a real shame after the last World Cup.

    England were amongst the worst, of course.
    There's been a few good games. Wales v Belgium. Croatia were good fun too. But generally poor for some reason. Not sure why.
    As a neutral, minnows Iceland humbling England must have been a delight to watch. As Englander supporters, we were even robbed of that moment of delight.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2016

    One of my most deeply held beliefs is that the British people have not really changed nearly as much as the liberal metro commentariat would have us believe. The Tory party in the country is especially untouched by the vagaries of modernisation.
    We Conservatives are being offered a choice between someone who likes us, our values and believes we can win with them and someone who seems to think our Blairite opponents still hold all the trump cards and that our best chance lies in aping them.

    The Tory party in the country may be largely unchanged. There you have your partial explanation for why membership numbers are a fraction of what they were in its heyday.

    But May, a Blairite clone? Based on what? The "nasty party" speech? That's just ridiculous.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    The problem seems to be that the unions have found a very clever way to destroy the company without technically breaking the law on unauthorised strike action (i.e. coordinated sick days).

    There's actually not much that Southern can do to improve things - if they surrender they may as well hand over the keys to the company; if they fight on their customers continue to get angry. I'd hope they are training a bunch of new drivers, but they are in a tough spot.
    The Company should try a company doctor I once knew socially who was sent in to tackle sickness levels in a male dominated factory and instituted a new policy of a mandatory full assessment by the Doc everytime a worker returned to work. This doctor had a few unsavoury tactics one of which included a rectal exam where the worker did not see the doc putting a glove on and then swiftly turning the worker around and asking them to open their mouth and say ahh with ungloved fingers. The workers did not know that the glove was ever there. The problem was cured.
    Good luck with that with railwaymen. I doubt the doctor would last the morning before being admitted to casualty with compound jaw fractures and a badly broken nose
    Ah, the glory that is the white working class.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    DaveDave said:

    Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Desperate' commuters on Southern trains are considering a fare strike and will hold a demonstration at Victoria station tomorrow in a "show of anger".
    Hundreds of people have expressed an interest in the rush hour demonstration, scheduled for 5.30pm, claiming lives are being "ruined" by the company's service."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/southern-railway-desperate-commuters-to-hold-victoria-station-protest-a3292251.html

    What do we want - Southern Trains
    When do we want it - 18.00, calling at Clapham Jct, East Croydon, Redhill and Gatwick Airport
    Nationalisation of Southern Trains is the answer. Corbyn is the man.
    Nationalisation and then rolling over to the unions?
    Nationalisation is banned under EU law. It won't be post Brexit.
    I don't really get the desire for railway nationalisation. The railways are so much better than when I was younger. More timely, better furnished, lots of cheap advance tickets available. More competition, not less, is surely the answer...

    Edit: that said, my experiences of Southern are less positive. Too big a network?
    If BR had had the £5 billion a year subsidy that this lot get rather than the less than one billion a year they got things would have been somewhat different.
    Sure, sure - but it didn't; and wasn't the main reason for privatisation the recognition that investment was required but not forthcoming with BR a state vehicle?
    The source of the money is the same - you and I the taxpayer.

    No, privatisation was so they could do to the railways what they did to the coal mines. However the TOCs were good at selling the product, passenger numbers went up and the government and the road lobby to their utter horror realised that the rail lobby which had vanished in 1948 upon nationalisation - giving the road lobby free rein - had been reborn and was back with a venegence.
    I suggest you read about Major's motivation for rail privatisation - I can't remember what is was (was it the cost of gilts?) exactly but there were serious reasons why railway infrastructure couldn't get the investment it needed as a state vehicle.

  • MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    Almost every game has been poor. A deeply mediocre tournament, a real shame after the last World Cup.

    England were amongst the worst, of course.
    There's been a few good games. Wales v Belgium. Croatia were good fun too. But generally poor for some reason. Not sure why.
    As a neutral, minnows Iceland humbling England must have been a delight to watch. As Englander supporters, we were even robbed of that moment of delight.
    Yes, although we were so poor I actually found it funny. England have underperformed and disappointed us for so long it's become the norm.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    Monty said:

    SeanT said:

    How bad is this match?

    How bad is this tournament?

    BREXIT.

    Every game involving Portugal has been poor.
    Almost every game has been poor. A deeply mediocre tournament, a real shame after the last World Cup.

    England were amongst the worst, of course.
    There's been a few good games. Wales v Belgium. Croatia were good fun too. But generally poor for some reason. Not sure why.
    The group stages were fun, lots of late goals - the Group F final games were amazing.

    But the KO stage has pretty much sucked.
This discussion has been closed.