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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Andrea Leadsom the scrutiny has only just started

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  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    edited July 2016
    Mr. Jessop, genuinely surprised to hear that. Hmm.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Stopper, it is.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972

    Mr. Jonathan, point of order: puritanism tends to be the preserve of the left.

    That would be bullshit.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,043
    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.
  • Options

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Anything! Please!
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,493

    Mr. Jonathan, point of order: puritanism tends to be the preserve of the left.

    Not sure that's true. Left and right aren't really very helpful terms when discussing matters of public morality. The left and the right can find arguments within both traditions to support either censorship or a libertarian approach.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Ironically AV would have made the Tory contest quicker.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    Would that be amateurism like saying one couldn't countenance leaving the EU and wanted to use the referendum to dock the UK with the EU, before we started the renegotiation ? That sort of amateurism ?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Wannabe Prime Minister Andrea Leadsom thinks all websites should be rated – just like movies
    Maybe God told her to do it


    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/08/leadsom_thinks_websites_should_be_rated/

    I wonder how pb.com would be rated....?

    The alternative now would be the soon to be replaced* EU funded Quatro approach

    https://www.w3.org/2005/Security/usability-ws/papers/04-quatro-trust/

    (* by QuatroPlus!)
    So Leadsom wants to do something that's funded by the EU.....?

    Colour me confused.....
    Don't look at me! Sounds like she wants to make it mandatory as well, bizarre! The current Tory party badly needs some technical nous, its full of complete illiterates at the moment. Cameron's crypto idea was even worse, that would have put the City out of business far quicker and more surely than any BrExit choice we could make.
    I did love Edmund in Tokyo's observation at the time - that the surest way to create a generation of cyber hackers was to attempt to erect a firewall between teenage boys and their porn.....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Telling lies is a plus...

    @SamCoatesTimes: Andrea Leadsom supporters think row over CV "embellishment" might help them - compare it to £350m Vote Leave scrap https://t.co/DhIujlZZRq

    Post-truth politics. Never mind Corbyn in a skirt, this is Trump for Dummies...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Jonathan, one refers one to the no-platforming, safe-spacing of universities.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Anything! Please!
    Even Scott's twatters would be better
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    Jonathan said:

    Wannabe Prime Minister Andrea Leadsom thinks all websites should be rated – just like movies
    Maybe God told her to do it


    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/08/leadsom_thinks_websites_should_be_rated/

    I wonder how pb.com would be rated....?

    PB would be restricted 18+ because of the betting. Not inconceivable that it could be banned behind some Tory firewall of righteousness.
    Betting? But isn't this a site for pre-1066 historians?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,043

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Well, now you mention it (puts on anorak).

    There are clearly moves in Labour to put voting reform back on the stage (& link up with Greens, LibDems etc). I'm guessing this will not be AV in the end as the public rejected it 4 or 5 years ago. So what will it be? Jenkins AMS+ report still sits on my bookshelf.
  • Options

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I'm pretty sure he did it because he seriously believes in the need for us to withdraw properly from the EU and manage ourselves accordingly. (He's right) Boris' heart wasn't in it. He'd have gone for something that might not actually have taken us out of the EU - that was Gove's fear. May or Leadsome - we're leaving. Job done from Gove's p.o.v. He killed Boris to kill the chance that the establishment would weasel out.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    Indigo said:

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    Would that be amateurism like saying one couldn't countenance leaving the EU and wanted to use the referendum to dock the UK with the EU, before we started the renegotiation ? That sort of amateurism ?
    Look how that turned out.....
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,386
    DavidL said:

    This is a bit depressing to be honest. Neither of these candidates is close to Cameron or Osborne for that matter. Both are more right wing, way more authoritarian and less likely to appeal to the Lib Dems and ex Lib Dems that gave Cameron his majority. They may of course pick up some UKIP supporters but they are less likely to be useful in terms of seats.

    I would have had a Boris/Gove partnership over either of these two in a heartbeat. Gove's moves seem ever more inexplicable and unfortunate.

    One aspect which hasn't so far come to the fore is the same authoritarian/libertarian divide on the right that we see in UKIP - members like Richard Tyndall want (if I'm not misquoting him) a less intrusive state while some prominent Kippers are definitely in the "let's lock more people up for more offences" camp. Norman's Baker's memoirs, while partisan, make it very clear that May is in the hardline authoritarian camp. I don't think she is especially socially conservative, as Leadsom seems to be, but clearly we are in for more surveillance and control if she wins. It would be useful if thr interviews during the campaign tease out how far this goes.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,108
    Get in. Klopp signs a four year contract extension.

    He's here until 2022.

    Best news ever.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972

    Mr. Jonathan, one refers one to the no-platforming, safe-spacing of universities.

    One responds with the history of the twentieth century which, if anything, is a narrative of social liberalism opposed every step of the way by conservatives and the right.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.

    I wouldn't be too sure - while tempers may have mellowed, Gove's issues involve 'trust' - who is going to believe any deal he gets is 'the best possible'?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    Would that be amateurism like saying one couldn't countenance leaving the EU and wanted to use the referendum to dock the UK with the EU, before we started the renegotiation ? That sort of amateurism ?
    Look how that turned out.....
    But we were told he was the "near perfect" PM ? I will grant you that is a reasonable impression compared to May or Leadsom, but its not exactly setting the bar high.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    TGOHF said:

    May/Hammond top pair - will bore the nation to death.

    The least radical or reforming government since Gordon Brown.

    I listened to part of Hammond's quizing by the FO committee and he was uninspiring. The man had no drive, no energy, no optimism, everything was a problem and too difficult. He was worried about the attitudes of staff at the EU HQ saying that they had turned negative. He said that no contingency planning was done because the LEAVErs would have complained that it was biaised... The man clearly does not like his work and needs to be shuffled out.

    For the lack of planning , he should be sacked for this dereliction of duty. Instead, alas we will probably see him remain in the job or become the CoE or Home Sec.... all under Mrs May zzzzzzzzzzz
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    edited July 2016
    Mr. Mark, some say that the Punic Wars are so exciting that they're unsuitable for children.

    Mr. Herdson, the left has a tendency to use language better but also to manipulate it and the publicly acceptable vocabulary (the nonsense of Cumberbatch apologising for saying coloured person instead of person of colour being a prime example). The right doesn't do this [perhaps in part because the right tends to be relatively poor at using language compared to the left].

    Are their counter-examples of rightwing puritanism in modern politics? Happy to concede the point if there are and I've either forgotten them or were unaware of them.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Jonathan, perfectly content to agree that eighty years and hundreds (a thousand?) miles away Germany was led down a dark path by a party of national socialists.

    Edited extra bit 2: but fascism/socialism and puritanism aren't the same thing, although there may be some overlap.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,371
    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,108

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Well, now you mention it (puts on anorak).

    There are clearly moves in Labour to put voting reform back on the stage (& link up with Greens, LibDems etc). I'm guessing this will not be AV in the end as the public rejected it 4 or 5 years ago. So what will it be? Jenkins AMS+ report still sits on my bookshelf.
    I do have a thread on that in the pipeline. Just look how turnout shot up in this referendum when every vote mattered.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,970
    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
    If May, assuming it's her, has any sense she will keep Gove well away from any Brexit negotiations. He's a loose cannon. Someone who ison message and boringly effective is what she needs.
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    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Confused by the list of policies captured in that photograph last night. Regardless of what the list says, isn't the mission of the next Conservative leader to (1) deliver the manifesto on which it was elected in 2015 and (2) implement the outcome of the referendum. We need to hear from each candidates how they intend to do the above and, in particular, how they will manage the contradictions between the two, e.g. Eliminate the deficit, ECHR

    Should either of the candidates wish to introduce new initiatives, such as a war on political correctness they should either explicitly park it until after the next GE in 2020 or pledge to trigger a GE sooner.

    On the overall position, Leadsome can certainly win this by pushing a vigorous, right wing agenda and exploit May's wish to reserve the UKs position on negotiations by representing it as backsliding on Brexit. Winning a 2020 election will not be important if the second objective of the nationalist right is archived: namely a realignment on the right to merge UKIP and Conservative memberships with a 100 or so MPs.

    The saving grace for the Consefvatives, when comparing to the hold that Corbyn has on the leadership, is that the MPs can dismiss Leadsom and she cannot then be leader. That is, of course, assuming that Leadsom does not have changing the rules on electing the leader in mind when the list says 'return power to the local associations'
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    PlatoSaid said:


    I can't get over how quickly the news moves on - yet on other subjects, they twaddle on about fluff for days.

    Chilcot has barely a mention now - and it's just two days ago.

    Chilcot wasn't "news" - it told us what we'd known for many years. Hard to keep recycling that.

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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    FF43 said:

    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
    If May, assuming it's her, has any sense she will keep Gove well away from any Brexit negotiations. He's a loose cannon. Someone who ison message and boringly effective is what she needs.
    I think Gove has a role to play. Not number one person, but could be there.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,574

    Mr. Mark, some say that the Punic Wars are so exciting that they're unsuitable for children.

    Mr. Herdson, the left has a tendency to use language better but also to manipulate it and the publicly acceptable vocabulary (the nonsense of Cumberbatch apologising for saying coloured person instead of person of colour being a prime example). The right doesn't do this [perhaps in part because the right tends to be relatively poor at using language compared to the left].

    Are their counter-examples of rightwing puritanism in modern politics? Happy to concede the point if there are and I've either forgotten them or were unaware of them.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Jonathan, perfectly content to agree that eighty years and hundreds (a thousand?) miles away Germany was led down a dark path by a party of national socialists.

    Edited extra bit 2: but fascism/socialism and puritanism aren't the same thing, although there may be some overlap.

    Section 28.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Rexel56 said:

    Should either of the candidates wish to introduce new initiatives, such as a war on political correctness they should either explicitly park it until after the next GE in 2020 or pledge to trigger a GE sooner.

    Because no governments have ever changed their initiatives mid term as a result of changing events, never mind as a result of changing leaders? Perhaps we should examine the rise of G. Brown Esq for elucidation ?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,043

    FF43 said:

    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
    If May, assuming it's her, has any sense she will keep Gove well away from any Brexit negotiations. He's a loose cannon. Someone who ison message and boringly effective is what she needs.
    I think Gove has a role to play. Not number one person, but could be there.
    Surely Hammond for Brexit role?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,386
    The AfD has hit stormy waters after a prominent member claimed that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion were genuine: 12 AfD members including a co-leader have resigned and are flirting with setting up their own party. The party rating has dropped by a couple of points in the three polls since the story broke, but is still around 10-12%:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/06/anti-immigration-party-afd-germany-leader-crisis-antisemitism-wolfgang-gedeon-frauke-petry-jorg-meuthen

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
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    Will we have a 'fantasy cabinet reshuffle' thread - under either leadership scenario?

    Who should or should not get a gig?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,855
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    I think her objection there was the marriage angle, civil partnerships should be the legal side, marriage should be left as a religious ceremony. That was the law under Blair.
    Except marriage has always had a civil legal aspect to it as well.

    Maybe it would be more convenient if marriage referred to a religious partnership and civil partnership for mere legal partnership, but it doesn't and it didn't, politicians have for centuries and centuries decided what constitutes a proper marriage, and you don't even need religion involved. Changing the terminology to what some people wish it meant but didn't is, besides anything else, simply unfair.
    Also very tedious and boring , who cares about splitting hairs etc. Time people got a life and stopped whining.
    Words to live by. Few of us do, certainly not me!
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    FF43 said:

    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
    If May, assuming it's her, has any sense she will keep Gove well away from any Brexit negotiations. He's a loose cannon. Someone who ison message and boringly effective is what she needs.
    I think Gove has a role to play. Not number one person, but could be there.
    Surely Hammond for Brexit role?
    I think Hammond and May are friends, Minister for BrExit isn't the sort of job you give to a friend ;)
  • Options

    FF43 said:

    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
    If May, assuming it's her, has any sense she will keep Gove well away from any Brexit negotiations. He's a loose cannon. Someone who ison message and boringly effective is what she needs.
    I think Gove has a role to play. Not number one person, but could be there.
    Surely Hammond for Brexit role?
    May said it would be a LEAVEr. If there was a market I would go for Grayling.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Rexel56 said:

    That is, of course, assuming that Leadsom does not have changing the rules on electing the leader in mind when the list says 'return power to the local associations'

    It's hard to read that bullet point any other way than being a proto Corbyn move.

  • Options

    Leadsom will win.

    I suspect she will. I'm not yet convinced that I want her to - but I think she will.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    As Mike pointed out to me, Vodafone started rating PB as an adult site a few days after I became guest editor.

    You editing and live streaming PB in the buff was the final straw. Even Mike wore a spandex thong !!

    :smiley:

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    Patrick said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I'm pretty sure he did it because he seriously believes in the need for us to withdraw properly from the EU and manage ourselves accordingly. (He's right) Boris' heart wasn't in it. He'd have gone for something that might not actually have taken us out of the EU - that was Gove's fear. May or Leadsome - we're leaving. Job done from Gove's p.o.v. He killed Boris to kill the chance that the establishment would weasel out.
    But then, why stand himself - and look like an opportunistic little shit? If he had just made his intervention about Boris, he might just have pulled it off as looking like he truly cared about the Party/the country. Just baffling.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382
    They just have to be brighter than their actions suggest, how do they get into these positions of power if they are so stupid............... silly question of course
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    I disagree, we should say that anybody currently living here legally will continue to do so, threatening people with deportation is obscene.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382
    Patrick said:

    Will we have a 'fantasy cabinet reshuffle' thread - under either leadership scenario?

    Who should or should not get a gig?

    Pin the tail on the donkey time
  • Options

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Apparently there was some talk about shortening the voting period by about three weeks before Cameron scotched the whole idea. It seems he wanted to hold his final swansong in the sun with the world leaders at the G7 meeting in early September.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    Patrick said:

    Leadsom will win.

    I suspect she will. I'm not yet convinced that I want her to - but I think she will.
    I think Tory members are more savvy than is being given credit for. May will win comfortably. At least 60-40.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,203
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    So what? If she won't ban the Pill it's just flag-waving.

    @HYUFD

    I'm not sure that that is a problem; just somebody who happens to agree with your personal opinions.

    On the same basis, one would presumably have to oppose virtually all Muslim councillors, who also tend to be conservative on sexual matters.

    I am more concerned with the totalitarian habits of the LGBTXYZ lobby, who seem to be unable to tolerate people who disagree with them.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    I think they'll just see it as a continuation of the referendum. I certainly do. Vote Leave!

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Divvie, I think that's a valid example. Little bit distant (I imagine two-thirds or more of Parliament has changed since then), but still.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    I think her objection there was the marriage angle, civil partnerships should be the legal side, marriage should be left as a religious ceremony. That was the law under Blair.
    No it definitely wasn't!

    I'm an atheist and my wife and I had a civil ceremony for our marriage. There was definitely no religion involved. In fact for a civil ceremony marriage it is illegal to have religious references, or hymns involved. Even the tune for walking down the aisle can't have religious references.
    It was the law for same sex marriage. Civil partnership?

    If you read Ms Leadsom's parliament speech during this bill it is the religious angle that she has trouble with.

    http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2013-02-05b.125.0#g221.0

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2012/05/the-folly-of-camerons-gay-marriage-culture-war/
    Except religion is not what civil marriage is about, in fact as I said bringing religion into a civil marriage is not just frowned upon it is against the law.

    So why should straight non religious ceremonies like mine and my wife's be called marriage, while gay non religious ones are not. Religion is not the factor involved, sexuality is.

    If marriage was religious then I couldn't get married, but I did.
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    prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 442
    alex. said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    Thanks.
    Don't know what the first one means - beyond that we actually leave. Any other "interpretation" of the referendum result is speculation.

    On 3 - in what sense can May be considered a "career politician with no experience of the real world outside politics"?
    On 2 - what experience does Leadsom have of European negotiations? May certainly has experience of successfully negotiating in the UK. Leadsom does not as far as I am aware.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Apparently there was some talk about shortening the voting period by about three weeks before Cameron scotched the whole idea. It seems he wanted to hold his final swansong in the sun with the world leaders at the G7 meeting in early September.
    He wants to thank Obama personally for the polling boost Remain got :wink:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,043

    PlatoSaid said:


    I can't get over how quickly the news moves on - yet on other subjects, they twaddle on about fluff for days.

    Chilcot has barely a mention now - and it's just two days ago.

    Chilcot wasn't "news" - it told us what we'd known for many years. Hard to keep recycling that.

    Well, this a betting site. Not much betting to be had on Chilcot. Although a book on how long before he would publish might have been interesting.

    Personally, I think Goldsmith comes out the worst in the report over changing his legal advice. But then again, why didn't the Cabinet challenge and ask to see the written legal advice?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,296
    Totally O/T, but on BBC Essex this morning someone has been stopped at Stansted for having a gun-shaped iPhone case!

    You really couldn’t make it up! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-36728878
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    Patrick said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I'm pretty sure he did it because he seriously believes in the need for us to withdraw properly from the EU and manage ourselves accordingly. (He's right) Boris' heart wasn't in it. He'd have gone for something that might not actually have taken us out of the EU - that was Gove's fear. May or Leadsome - we're leaving. Job done from Gove's p.o.v. He killed Boris to kill the chance that the establishment would weasel out.
    But then, why stand himself - and look like an opportunistic little shit? If he had just made his intervention about Boris, he might just have pulled it off as looking like he truly cared about the Party/the country. Just baffling.
    Not baffling to me. A few nasty words would not have caused the mass defections away from Boris - that's not how Tory leader elections work. He needed his own candidacy to kill Boris'. If viewed as a purely 'kill Boris / keep Brexit faith' act then it makes perfect sense. He seems well chuffed today even after he has been eliminated. We're going to leave.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    I disagree, we should say that anybody currently living here legally will continue to do so, threatening people with deportation is obscene.
    Why is 'threatening EU citizens in the UK with deportation' obscene,

    But 'threatening UK citizens in the EU with deportation' not?

    To be clear, no one has suggested either - just some British virtue signallers are worrying about the former, but not the latter.

    I'm with May - I'd want a deal for both - something Leadsom hasn't called for.....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972

    alex. said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    Thanks.
    Don't know what the first one means - beyond that we actually leave. Any other "interpretation" of the referendum result is speculation.

    On 3 - in what sense can May be considered a "career politician with no experience of the real world outside politics"?
    On 2 - what experience does Leadsom have of European negotiations? May certainly has experience of successfully negotiating in the UK. Leadsom does not as far as I am aware.
    Leadsom negotiated Potsdam.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    I disagree, we should say that anybody currently living here legally will continue to do so, threatening people with deportation is obscene.
    Why is 'threatening EU citizens in the UK with deportation' obscene,

    But 'threatening UK citizens in the EU with deportation' not?

    To be clear, no one has suggested either - just some British virtue signallers are worrying about the former, but not the latter.

    I'm with May - I'd want a deal for both - something Leadsom hasn't called for.....
    You continually misquote me and are happy to tell lies, it is pointless discussing anything with you.
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    Patrick said:

    Leadsom will win.

    I suspect she will. I'm not yet convinced that I want her to - but I think she will.
    I think Tory members are more savvy than is being given credit for. May will win comfortably. At least 60-40.
    That's very close to the 65% : 35% which I estimated last night. I haven't checked this morning but I'm expecting Laddies and maybe others to open a book on their respective share of the vote.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,574

    Mr. Divvie, I think that's a valid example. Little bit distant (I imagine two-thirds or more of Parliament has changed since then), but still.

    It was only repealed in 2003 (and Cameron voted against that repeal).
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Apparently there was some talk about shortening the voting period by about three weeks before Cameron scotched the whole idea. It seems he wanted to hold his final swansong in the sun with the world leaders at the G7 meeting in early September.
    He wants to thank Obama personally for the polling boost Remain got :wink:
    Yes, and give Hollande a bollocking for not threatening us enough.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    I disagree, we should say that anybody currently living here legally will continue to do so, threatening people with deportation is obscene.
    Why is 'threatening EU citizens in the UK with deportation' obscene,

    But 'threatening UK citizens in the EU with deportation' not?

    To be clear, no one has suggested either - just some British virtue signallers are worrying about the former, but not the latter.

    I'm with May - I'd want a deal for both - something Leadsom hasn't called for.....
    You continually misquote me and are happy to tell lies, it is pointless discussing anything with you.
    Who has threatened anyone with deportation?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Divvie, ah, I thought it was a decade or so earlier, for some reason. (Pre-PB for me, hence my ignorance). In that case, yes, very valid example.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,266
    Setting aside the specific issue of gay marriage, Andrea Leadsom's inexperience certainly showed in her stated preference for marriage to be reserved as an exclusively "Christian" institution. Was she really thinking that it would be better if Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and those of other faiths - and presumably atheists and agnostics as well - couldn't legally marry in the UK, or was she just not thinking at all?

    Someone said this would amount to turning back the clock to 1837. In fact, Jewish marriages have been legal since 1753, so that was an underestimate of her Conservatism.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Chicken Coup plotters were just using the EUref as an excuse to implement their anti-democratic exercise in ageism and bullying.I call as evidence ,Prof.J.Curtice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/04/evidence-blame-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-remain-labour-conservative?CMP=share_btn_tw
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    F1: may be showers on race day. Worth keeping an eye on that.

    Qualifying likely to be dry.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I'm struck by the contrast between the YouGov poll of Conservative members and the virulently negative views of Leadsom being expressed by Conservative supporters here. YouGov found that only 16% had a negative opinion of here, only May having a lower negative figure of 12%, out of the nine people on whom opinions were sought.

    The explanation is very simple: most Conservative party members and supporters had barely heard of her until this week and still don't know much about her, whereas posters here have been folllowing events more closely.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Chris said:

    Setting aside the specific issue of gay marriage, Andrea Leadsom's inexperience certainly showed in her stated preference for marriage to be reserved as an exclusively "Christian" institution. Was she really thinking that it would be better if Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and those of other faiths - and presumably atheists and agnostics as well - couldn't legally marry in the UK, or was she just not thinking at all?

    Someone said this would amount to turning back the clock to 1837. In fact, Jewish marriages have been legal since 1753, so that was an underestimate of her Conservatism.

    I'm an atheist, Cameron called Khan a proud muslim, Leadsom says she's a christian and people jump up and down.

    We're a strange bunch.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    I think they'll just see it as a continuation of the referendum. I certainly do. Vote Leave!

    Continuity proxy wars are going to play their part for certain. For me now, it's about how the two contenders perform over the next few weeks. May has to convince me that she can change her MacCavity ways/show warmth and be a team player, Leadsom to demonstrate she's more than Brexit and has depth of thinking.

    There's a definite overtone of the same behaviour we saw during the referendum campaign. Looking down on Brexit proved very misplaced and foolishly snobby at times. If PBers fall into the same trap again...



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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
    I think comparisons with IDS are entirely fatuous. IDS never held a ministerial post in government before becoming leader, Leadsom has. She reached Economic Secretary within her first parliament and is a Minister of State, not bad going for someone who has been in Parliament only six years. That all happened under Cameron, IDS got nothing under Major.

    The worst that can be said about Andrea is its maybe too early for her. Though both our incumbent PM AND the President of the United States had less experienced than her when they got their jobs.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As the UK moves steadily towards its date with Brexit one can already sense the efforts of the Leave campaigners trying to dodge blame for any of the shocks ahead. Rather than own the result, leading advocates are building up alibis in case the outcome is less fabulous than they assured voters it would be. Here then is your cut-out-and-keep guide for Leavers on why things went wrong, just in case they do.

    https://next.ft.com/content/4aa912fa-4423-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d?siteedition=uk#axzz4Do80zO7l

    More than half have already appeared on PB
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    Yes, I think that's very likely.

    But I don't expect her to last very long. She will promise to trigger Article 50 soon after her election but inevitably she will have no clear idea of what deal she will get from the EU and so Parliament will refuse to agree. By this stage the economic damage of Brexit will be much starker - the economy in recession, falling house prices, sterling quite possibly below the euro (£1 buying less than 1 Euro).

    This crisis is only going to get worse and there are no solutions in sight. It has already destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove. It will certainly destroy Leadsom and quite possibly several more PMs after that.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I was thinking much the same. For all the fuss and fanfare about the Chilcot report it got one day's worth of headlines and now has been quietly forgotten.

    There really wasn't anything much new in it, other than a whole lot of detail which merely confirmed what we already knew. It's essentially the Hutton Enquiry repeated, but this time with a sane conclusion.
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    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    Yes, I think that's very likely.

    But I don't expect her to last very long. She will promise to trigger Article 50 soon after her election but inevitably she will have no clear idea of what deal she will get from the EU and so Parliament will refuse to agree. By this stage the economic damage of Brexit will be much starker - the economy in recession, falling house prices, sterling quite possibly below the euro (£1 buying less than 1 Euro).

    This crisis is only going to get worse and there are no solutions in sight. It has already destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove. It will certainly destroy Leadsom and quite possibly several more PMs after that.
    She won't win.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. 63, that kind of thing irks me too (also an atheist). Either consistently take the piss, or consistently treat faith in politics with respect.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Though both our incumbent PM AND the President of the United States had less experienced than her when they got their jobs.

    Did either of them lie on their CV?
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,444
    The focus on brexit, and what it means in the wider context, is going to be the main priority for government. Consequently other matters will have less importance and effort allocated to them.

    This means that the government will not want to be derailed by other issues. Political capital will be hoarded and retained until required for Brexit matters.

    Hence a boring government is likely to arise, except in the Brexit context.

    There will be less time and effort for radical reform (except where it is linked to Brexit) otherwise the government could quite easily collapse.
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    Patrick said:

    Leadsom will win.

    I suspect she will. I'm not yet convinced that I want her to - but I think she will.
    I think Tory members are more savvy than is being given credit for. May will win comfortably. At least 60-40.
    That's very close to the 65% : 35% which I estimated last night. I haven't checked this morning but I'm expecting Laddies and maybe others to open a book on their respective share of the vote.
    Just checked and as expected Ladbrokes are offering one of their "fulcrum"bets where you can bet at odds of 10/11 on May winning +/- 59.5% of the Members' vote. I'm very much on the plus side of this equation, but DYOR!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,855

    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
    I think comparisons with IDS are entirely fatuous. IDS never held a ministerial post in government before becoming leader, Leadsom has. She reached Economic Secretary within her first parliament and is a Minister of State, not bad going for someone who has been in Parliament only six years. That all happened under Cameron, IDS got nothing under Major.

    The worst that can be said about Andrea is its maybe too early for her. Though both our incumbent PM AND the President of the United States had less experienced than her when they got their jobs.
    Not the job of PM. Party leader, perhaps, but as even Liam fox noted, they're not just choosing a party leader.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Chris said:

    Setting aside the specific issue of gay marriage, Andrea Leadsom's inexperience certainly showed in her stated preference for marriage to be reserved as an exclusively "Christian" institution. Was she really thinking that it would be better if Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and those of other faiths - and presumably atheists and agnostics as well - couldn't legally marry in the UK, or was she just not thinking at all?

    Someone said this would amount to turning back the clock to 1837. In fact, Jewish marriages have been legal since 1753, so that was an underestimate of her Conservatism.

    I'm an atheist, Cameron called Khan a proud muslim, Leadsom says she's a christian and people jump up and down.

    We're a strange bunch.
    He never objected to her calling herself a proud Christian. He objected to her calling a global civil institution respected by all religions an exclusively Christian one. What does that make of my atheist marriage?

    I've got no problem with proud Christians, I have a problem with non secular law. Whether that be instilling Christian law or Sharia or any other. Religion is personal, law is for everyone ... is that unreasonable?
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited July 2016

    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
    I think comparisons with IDS are entirely fatuous. IDS never held a ministerial post in government before becoming leader, Leadsom has. She reached Economic Secretary within her first parliament and is a Minister of State, not bad going for someone who has been in Parliament only six years. That all happened under Cameron, IDS got nothing under Major.

    The worst that can be said about Andrea is its maybe too early for her. Though both our incumbent PM AND the President of the United States had less experienced than her when they got their jobs.
    The point I was hoping the members will focus on, is the mismatch between what they might want and what the MPs want. By a massive feat of generalisation, they might also draw some useful conclusions from what is going on on the benches opposite.

    And I can think of worse things than that to say about "Andrea". Pants on fire, for starters.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    Yes, I think that's very likely.

    But I don't expect her to last very long. She will promise to trigger Article 50 soon after her election but inevitably she will have no clear idea of what deal she will get from the EU and so Parliament will refuse to agree. By this stage the economic damage of Brexit will be much starker - the economy in recession, falling house prices, sterling quite possibly below the euro (£1 buying less than 1 Euro).

    This crisis is only going to get worse and there are no solutions in sight. It has already destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove. It will certainly destroy Leadsom and quite possibly several more PMs after that.
    What crisis?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,296

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Apparently there was some talk about shortening the voting period by about three weeks before Cameron scotched the whole idea. It seems he wanted to hold his final swansong in the sun with the world leaders at the G7 meeting in early September.
    He wants to thank Obama personally for the polling boost Remain got :wink:
    Yes, and give Hollande a bollocking for not threatening us enough.
    I think he’s in serious danger of being pointed to as an example of a leader who didn’t think things through.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,932
    Regarding shortening the leadership contest. Will enough key players be reliably around to negotiate with, or to put together a negotiating strategy during August.

    The best to be done would be for Cameron / May / Leadsome get together and agree a set of common uncontroversial actions, such as getting teams set up so that the civil and political services are fully geared up to swing behind the new PM on day 1 in early September. I imagine there are plenty of common actions that could be taken to quite adequately fill July / August.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,444
    What are the chances of a government of national unity (eg a coalition of the centre ground) before 2020?
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    This is going to be a long and tedious 9 weeks.

    Do you want some AV threads during the next nine weeks to banish the tedium ?
    Well, now you mention it (puts on anorak).

    There are clearly moves in Labour to put voting reform back on the stage (& link up with Greens, LibDems etc). I'm guessing this will not be AV in the end as the public rejected it 4 or 5 years ago. So what will it be? Jenkins AMS+ report still sits on my bookshelf.
    While STV is the Lib Dems preferred system (and mine), I think going for the same AMS system as used in Scotland, Wales, and London is the way to go here. If we are already using this form of PR it is harder to argue against it. It also means we can deflect arguments such as "but Italy is unstable!!" by keeping the comparisons within the UK.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,993

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    Yes, I think that's very likely.

    But I don't expect her to last very long. She will promise to trigger Article 50 soon after her election but inevitably she will have no clear idea of what deal she will get from the EU and so Parliament will refuse to agree. By this stage the economic damage of Brexit will be much starker - the economy in recession, falling house prices, sterling quite possibly below the euro (£1 buying less than 1 Euro).

    This crisis is only going to get worse and there are no solutions in sight. It has already destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove. It will certainly destroy Leadsom and quite possibly several more PMs after that.
    I get a sense people are only thinking Leadsom will win as a result of the huge number of shock results we've had in the last 12 months or so - corbyn, leave vote etc. I expected conservative home to endorse Leadsom so it was interesting that they didn't. People want a relatively safe pair of hands, no frills etc so I think May is nailed on.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,296

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    Yes, I think that's very likely.

    But I don't expect her to last very long. She will promise to trigger Article 50 soon after her election but inevitably she will have no clear idea of what deal she will get from the EU and so Parliament will refuse to agree. By this stage the economic damage of Brexit will be much starker - the economy in recession, falling house prices, sterling quite possibly below the euro (£1 buying less than 1 Euro).

    This crisis is only going to get worse and there are no solutions in sight. It has already destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove. It will certainly destroy Leadsom and quite possibly several more PMs after that.
    What crisis?
    Falling house prices, in London’s outer ring and the Home Counties anyway, are a problem for those downsizing, but not for those wanting to get their feet on the ladder.
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    Pro_Rata said:

    Regarding shortening the leadership contest. Will enough key players be reliably around to negotiate with, or to put together a negotiating strategy during August.

    The best to be done would be for Cameron / May / Leadsome get together and agree a set of common uncontroversial actions, such as getting teams set up so that the civil and political services are fully geared up to swing behind the new PM on day 1 in early September. I imagine there are plenty of common actions that could be taken to quite adequately fill July / August.

    How about approving Heathrow? Or, even better, Heathrow AND Gatwick?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043

    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
    I think comparisons with IDS are entirely fatuous.
    Yes. He stood for LotO, not PM.

    Completely different jobs......
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,459
    edited July 2016

    ToryJim said:

    Just read Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, he says May needs to come clean about deporting EU citizens, I agree. If that is her stance I hope Leadsom wins.

    Fraser Nelson is pursuing a journalistic line that is based on wilfully mishearing what has been said. It is not a mechanism I can respect as it is basically synthetic outrage to generate readership/Internet traffic.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-deportation-of-eu-nationals-living-in-uk-amid-fears-of-influx-of-a7117346.html

    If Leadsom had said that there would be riots
    No Leadsom has 'refused to back Brits in the EU' - if we apply the same logic to her statements that is being applied to May's
    Well she's just as bad then, what a situation we find ourselves in.
    Actually - if it was true - and it isn't of either ladies - a case could be made that its marginally worse for ignoring Brits abroad, than solely being concerned about EU nationals in the UK.

    However, as others have observed, this is a manufactured 'crisis' of synthetic virtue signalling.

    We have tough negotiations ahead of us - no one is going to get everything they want - and giving away positions before we start is amateurism of the highest order....
    I disagree, we should say that anybody currently living here legally will continue to do so, threatening people with deportation is obscene.
    While we would be mad to send away, law abiding, tax paying, EEA nationals currently in our country, I'm struggling to understand why not extending the right of residency to those who do not pay their way - and have no family or other connections with the UK - could not be deported is a problem.

    Note: edited because it didn't make sense.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
    Parties that have added representatives in major assemblies after changing their Leader last time?
    Conservatives
    SNP
    Parties that have lost representatives in major assemblies after changing their Leader?
    Labour
    Lib Dems (Wales, London...)

    On balance the members in Conservative and SNP parties are better at choosing Leaders than Labour and the Lib Dems.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FF43 said:

    Indigo said:

    Andrew Pierce on Gove:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679931/ANDREW-PIERCE-end-MPs-willing-trust-Gove.html

    Will we ever really understand why he did it? Gove could be looking forward to being CoE in 9 weeks.

    I wouldnt rule out him being Minister for BrExit in 9 weeks. Tempers will have cooled then and the pool of intellectual MPs with ministerial experience that would want the job is pretty small I would think.
    If May, assuming it's her, has any sense she will keep Gove well away from any Brexit negotiations. He's a loose cannon. Someone who ison message and boringly effective is what she needs.
    Yes, precisely so. In fact Leadsom would be a better choice; for all her inexperience and gaucheness, she is actually qute well informed on the issues from her work with Fresh Start. The big problem of course is that she has zero knowledge of high-level international negotiation, and almost zero experience of managing civil servants. But perhaps that could be addressed by putting together a high-powered team of which she's a part.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Patrick said:

    Leadsom will win.

    I suspect she will. I'm not yet convinced that I want her to - but I think she will.
    I think Tory members are more savvy than is being given credit for. May will win comfortably. At least 60-40.
    That sounds dangerously like a Nabavi 70/30 prediction ;)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Indigo said:

    Patrick said:

    Leadsom will win.

    I suspect she will. I'm not yet convinced that I want her to - but I think she will.
    I think Tory members are more savvy than is being given credit for. May will win comfortably. At least 60-40.
    That sounds dangerously like a Nabavi 70/30 prediction ;)
    Which prediction was that?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom will win. The Tory hard-right are absolutely loving the humiliation they inflicted upon Cameron, Osborne, Londoners, European leaders, the liberal media class and other assorted bogeymen who they've felt have had the whip hand over them in recent years. They're not going to stop there. A Leadsom victory will be yet another poke in the eye for all that lot and too delicious an opportunity to miss.

    If you look at the list of species of animals which have been shown in lab tests to learn from their mistakes, it is so long that there must be some hope that even tory party members make the cut, and enough of them will think, yebbut IDS and look how that turned out. How badly do they want Leadsom back and turning up the volume at the 2022 party conference?
    I think comparisons with IDS are entirely fatuous. IDS never held a ministerial post in government before becoming leader, Leadsom has. She reached Economic Secretary within her first parliament and is a Minister of State, not bad going for someone who has been in Parliament only six years. That all happened under Cameron, IDS got nothing under Major.

    The worst that can be said about Andrea is its maybe too early for her. Though both our incumbent PM AND the President of the United States had less experienced than her when they got their jobs.
    The point I was hoping the members will focus on, is the mismatch between what they might want and what the MPs want. By a massive feat of generalisation, they might also draw some useful conclusions from what is going on on the benches opposite.
    There is a world of difference between this choice and the benches opposite. While Leadsom has a successful Ministerial career under Cameron and has worked with Osborne at the Treasury and Amber Rudd at DECC ... Corbyn never worked with anyone. He wasn't fit to be Minister for Picking Up Dog Turds. Three decades in the back benches is where he belonged.

    There is a world of difference between not being able to work with someone, eg Corbyn, or not being first choice, eg Leadsom.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Chris said:

    Setting aside the specific issue of gay marriage, Andrea Leadsom's inexperience certainly showed in her stated preference for marriage to be reserved as an exclusively "Christian" institution. Was she really thinking that it would be better if Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and those of other faiths - and presumably atheists and agnostics as well - couldn't legally marry in the UK, or was she just not thinking at all?

    Someone said this would amount to turning back the clock to 1837. In fact, Jewish marriages have been legal since 1753, so that was an underestimate of her Conservatism.

    I'm an atheist, Cameron called Khan a proud muslim, Leadsom says she's a christian and people jump up and down.

    We're a strange bunch.
    He never objected to her calling herself a proud Christian. He objected to her calling a global civil institution respected by all religions an exclusively Christian one. What does that make of my atheist marriage?

    I've got no problem with proud Christians, I have a problem with non secular law. Whether that be instilling Christian law or Sharia or any other. Religion is personal, law is for everyone ... is that unreasonable?
    I never mentioned what Cameron thinks of Leadsom, I've no idea.

    My point is that if you state you're a muslim or a supporter of muslims you're seen as right on, say the same about christianity and you're a gay bashing freak.

    If gay people wish to get married good luck to them, they're consenting adults, we'll wait a long time before they can do it in a mosque.
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