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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Andrea Leadsom the scrutiny has only just started

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  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382

    Sean_F said:

    #IagreewithJackandMike

    I see the Sun has already come out for May as well as the Mail. Leadsom will certainly get er..scrutiny now :D

    The left wing media (ie BBC Guardian etc. and Twitterati) need to lay off though as they will just drive the blue rinse brigade into Leadsoms arms if they do what they did during the referendum.

    But can they learn? Some people have a remarkably tin ear.
    If you think that the BBC is left wing, then you must be right wing. Overall they work hard to be neutral.
    Ha Ha Ha
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.'



    And after less than two months in office the much hyped Sadiq Khan has already reneged on his key election promise to freeze fairs.

    Shame so many Londoners believed the lies.



    'Sadiq Khan accused of breaking London fare freeze election promise ...

    www.theguardian.com › Politics › Sadiq Khan
    8 Jun 2016 - London mayor: who says Sadiq Khan's fare freeze figures can't add up? ... “By raising Travelcard prices by inflation and breaking his biggest ...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Indigo said:

    This is quite an interesting summary of Andrea Leadsom's Fresh Start Project's verdict on Cameron's renegotiation.

    http://www.eufreshstart.co.uk/FSP UK Settlement Statement.pdf

    Does explain why she switched sides. Lttle difficult to see though, why anyone who wanted all that the Fresh Start wanted expected to stay in the EU at all.
    What are the ECJ’s “peverse decisions”. Ones that Fresh Start didn’t agree with?
    The ECJ is pretty much the worst thing about the EU, I would include any decision it made that was judicial activism, making law where none existed before, or where it override clear political decisions made by inter alia the Council of Europe, such as Major's Maastricht deal, or the Dane's Maastricht deal, both struck down, and amongst which we would have found Cameron's renegotiation had we remained because it is structurally identical to the Danish deal. I imagine they are thinking about prisoner's votes as well.
    Prisoner votes was a decision of the ECHR not the ECJ.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382

    Indigo said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Only if you are lucky. If you are unlucky she would keep a lowish profile and make appointments of the more able leavers. Boris is little more than a smile on a stick, but at City Hall he was very good and hiring a load of deputies to do the spade work while he did the positivity and feel-good bit. You might end up with a competently executed full lead into the WTO, which might make you feel rather less smug.

    In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.

    Need to be a transformation of May then , has she ever ever made any hard decisions, achieved anything other than keeping her head below the parapet.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Only if you are lucky. If you are unlucky she would keep a lowish profile and make appointments of the more able leavers. Boris is little more than a smile on a stick, but at City Hall he was very good and hiring a load of deputies to do the spade work while he did the positivity and feel-good bit. You might end up with a competently executed full lead into the WTO, which might make you feel rather less smug.

    In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.

    Need to be a transformation of May then , has she ever ever made any hard decisions, achieved anything other than keeping her head below the parapet.
    Her nasty party comments were brave and paved the way for the Tories return to power.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    Sean_F said:

    That Blue Rinse Agenda in Full.

    1) Repeal all labour passed laws since Wilson got into power.

    2) A grammar school for every town to segregate the thickos.

    3) Restoration of responsible government in Rhodeasia.

    4) No wooftas.

    5) repeal the equality act

    6) No wooftas.

    7) Pardon and reinstatement of pension for Constable Savage

    8) No wooftas.

    9) Compulsory Moose Shooting Lessons.

    10) Abolish the BBC

    11) Repeal the Government of India Act 1946

    12) Reinstate capital punishment

    13). Reinstate birching for young offenders

    14). Income tax relief for the employment of servants

    15). Prison for strikers

    16). A cottage hospital (complete with Matron) in every village, whilst closing down opening up the NHS to competition

    17). Everyone over 50 to be issued with a taser, and lawfully able to use it on anyone under 30 they don't like the look of.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    When you say 'on' Team Leadsom, presumably you don't mean that you'll be voting for her?
    Oh goodness no. Me in the Conservative party would be like The Book Of Mormon in Salt Lake City.

    But if Tim Montgomerie and Nigel Farage can express their views from outside the Conservative party, so can I.
    Technical note: The Book of Mormon was very complimentary to the Mormons. The Mormons even advertised themselves in the programme.

    Nearly split my sides laughing also, btw, at the show.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    She cannot be as boring or invisible as May
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Certainly, her views on religion and gay rights (amongst others) should be explored. If she can't field them well then she's certainly not PM material. It sounds as if she responded well to a stupid question yesterday.

    The same goes for May as well; although as she's better-known there might be less room for attack.

    I think we can agree there is a substantial difference between a detailed exploration of a person's views on the one hand, and a load of metrosexual sneering and smart arsery on the other. If she is not up to the job the first will reveal it, the second will drive a sympathy vote and get people's backs up and more determined to prove the lefties wrong by selecting her.
    One person's 'detailed exploration' is another person's 'metrosexual sneering and smart arsery'.

    It's easy for supporters to call the former the latter, especially if she doesn't answer well.
    Come on now, I think the difference between asking a straight question and tenaciously looking for a straight answer, and taking the piss and idiotic twitter memes is clear to almost everyone.
    I think that we can be confident that Leadsom is the "straight choice".

    I don't think much of either candidate. Both are repulsive in their own ways. I cannot see why people consider May as a safe pair of hands. Her lack of achievement is quite noticeable, her claim to fame is the absence of disasters on her watch. She gets off very lightly for doing very nearly bugger all. She does politics like an Italian football team, conceding few goals but also scoring very few.
    That may well be true of May. But, frankly, not fucking things up is about as much as I've come to hope for from politicians at the moment.

    A period of calm from a PM who tries hard not to make a mess of things is probably what this country needs at this point.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Only if you are lucky. If you are unlucky she would keep a lowish profile and make appointments of the more able leavers. Boris is little more than a smile on a stick, but at City Hall he was very good and hiring a load of deputies to do the spade work while he did the positivity and feel-good bit. You might end up with a competently executed full lead into the WTO, which might make you feel rather less smug.

    In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.

    Need to be a transformation of May then , has she ever ever made any hard decisions, achieved anything other than keeping her head below the parapet.

    Yep - she's not a great option, just the best of the two on offer.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,520
    edited July 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
    Some leavers on here would deem it as re-entering; others would not (I *think* RCS, Max and RTyndall are of the mind it would not, but might be wrong).
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Cyclefree said:

    Indigo said:

    This is quite an interesting summary of Andrea Leadsom's Fresh Start Project's verdict on Cameron's renegotiation.

    http://www.eufreshstart.co.uk/FSP UK Settlement Statement.pdf

    Does explain why she switched sides. Lttle difficult to see though, why anyone who wanted all that the Fresh Start wanted expected to stay in the EU at all.
    What are the ECJ’s “peverse decisions”. Ones that Fresh Start didn’t agree with?
    The ECJ is pretty much the worst thing about the EU, I would include any decision it made that was judicial activism, making law where none existed before, or where it override clear political decisions made by inter alia the Council of Europe, such as Major's Maastricht deal, or the Dane's Maastricht deal, both struck down, and amongst which we would have found Cameron's renegotiation had we remained because it is structurally identical to the Danish deal. I imagine they are thinking about prisoner's votes as well.
    Prisoner votes was a decision of the ECHR not the ECJ.

    Thierry Delvigne case ?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
    Her wording still leaves open not leaving the EU by any door.... Which is the lingering doubt she has to dispel over coming weeks.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    People that want EEA/EFTA are about to be lucky because their prefered solution has become the least bad solution for pretty much all who previous supported remain.
    I'm not sure that counts as lucky, because it was foreseen.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,382

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    #IagreewithJackandMike

    I see the Sun has already come out for May as well as the Mail. Leadsom will certainly get er..scrutiny now :D

    The left wing media (ie BBC Guardian etc. and Twitterati) need to lay off though as they will just drive the blue rinse brigade into Leadsoms arms if they do what they did during the referendum.

    But can they learn? Some people have a remarkably tin ear.
    Sorry, but that's rubbish.

    If Leadsom holds views that need questioning, they should be questioned. If the blue-rinsed brigade then choose her, it's internal party democracy in action.

    She should not get a free pass from justified questioning of her views just because it might upset some party members.

    Certainly, her views on religion and gay rights (amongst others) should be explored. If she can't field them well then she's certainly not PM material. It sounds as if she responded well to a stupid question yesterday.

    The same goes for May as well; although as she's better-known there might be less room for attack.
    I meant from the point of view of trying to prevent Andrea Leadsom from winning. Attacks on her from a secular liberal point of view won't resonate amongst this electorate, but rather, will generate sympathy for her.
    The media aren't just interviewing them for the Conservative members, but the whole country.

    Whoever wins is going to be PM. The audience is not just the Conservative electorate, but all of us. For millions this will be their first proper contact with both candidates' views (although May's should certainly be better-known).

    The Conservative members should ask themselves whether the candidates' views will play well with the rest of the electorate. Basically: is this person electable?

    Otherwise they might as wel ljust elect a Con Corbyn.
    I would have Corbyn over the two of them, they are that bad
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    Jonathan said:

    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Only if you are lucky. If you are unlucky she would keep a lowish profile and make appointments of the more able leavers. Boris is little more than a smile on a stick, but at City Hall he was very good and hiring a load of deputies to do the spade work while he did the positivity and feel-good bit. You might end up with a competently executed full lead into the WTO, which might make you feel rather less smug.

    In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.

    Need to be a transformation of May then , has she ever ever made any hard decisions, achieved anything other than keeping her head below the parapet.
    Her nasty party comments were brave and paved the way for the Tories return to power.
    Which is something her critics - who long for the glory days of IDS - ignore....
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    Cyclefree said:

    Indigo said:

    Certainly, her views on religion and gay rights (amongst others) should be explored. If she can't field them well then she's certainly not PM material. It sounds as if she responded well to a stupid question yesterday.

    The same goes for May as well; although as she's better-known there might be less room for attack.

    I think we can agree there is a substantial difference between a detailed exploration of a person's views on the one hand, and a load of metrosexual sneering and smart arsery on the other. If she is not up to the job the first will reveal it, the second will drive a sympathy vote and get people's backs up and more determined to prove the lefties wrong by selecting her.
    A detailed exploration of the facts about her life would be a start. As far as I can tell, everything that was previously stated about her various jobs at BZW, De Putron and Invesco has had to be corrected. Since her entire USP for government is her "stellar" City career, once that has been unpicked, what else is left? She can be OK in interviews/debates and she's not Gove. And, er, that's it.......

    Like Corbynistas Andrea's Army will dismiss and/or forgive her little "foibles". Being the true keeper of the flame trumps all else.

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver

    'In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.'



    And after less than two months in office the much hyped Sadiq Khan has already reneged on his key election promise to freeze fairs.

    Shame so many Londoners believed the lies.



    'Sadiq Khan accused of breaking London fare freeze election promise ...

    www.theguardian.com › Politics › Sadiq Khan
    8 Jun 2016 - London mayor: who says Sadiq Khan's fare freeze figures can't add up? ... “By raising Travelcard prices by inflation and breaking his biggest ...

    freeze fairs.=lol
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cyclefree said:

    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

    Look at her CV.

    Oh, wait...
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Only if you are lucky. If you are unlucky she would keep a lowish profile and make appointments of the more able leavers. Boris is little more than a smile on a stick, but at City Hall he was very good and hiring a load of deputies to do the spade work while he did the positivity and feel-good bit. You might end up with a competently executed full lead into the WTO, which might make you feel rather less smug.

    In eight years what did Boris achieve? Nothing of any note at all. He kept London in a holding pattern. The next PM will not have that luxury. Decisions will have to be made.

    Need to be a transformation of May then , has she ever ever made any hard decisions, achieved anything other than keeping her head below the parapet.

    Yep - she's not a great option, just the best of the two on offer.

    Three, if you count Corbyn.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Andrea may lead some. but she will never lead the Country.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
    Her wording still leaves open not leaving the EU by any door.... Which is the lingering doubt she has to dispel over coming weeks.
    What the Leadsom campaign will certainly try to do is push May into a lot of firm commitments - rather as Bernie did to Hillary.

    The level of distrust re May is pretty high in the Tory members I know. They voted Leave, and suspect she'll deliver Remain with a veneer of Brexit. The tactic of using people as bargaining chips hit all the wrong notes.

    It may be the technically best negotiating ploy, but it reinforced the view that she's a cold fish/wintry.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338

    stjohn said:

    Andrea Leadsom defends claims she was in Dexy’s Midnight Runners:

    http://newsthump.com/2016/07/07/andrea-leadsom-defends-claims-she-was-in-dexys-midnight-runners/

    That's ridiculous! Everyone knows she was training for the Olympic High Jump at the time......

    ...whilst managing Tim Berners-Lee as he created the world wide web, to the specification she gave him on a napkin at a Chinese restaurant...
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972
    Scott_P said:

    Cyclefree said:

    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

    Look at her CV.

    Oh, wait...
    To be fair Leadsom was very effective as Pope.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,493
    Cyclefree said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

    She was the mastermind behind the Congress of Vienna, I believe.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    PlatoSaid said:

    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
    Her wording still leaves open not leaving the EU by any door.... Which is the lingering doubt she has to dispel over coming weeks.
    The tactic of using people as bargaining chips hit all the wrong notes.
    And sacrificing Brits in the EU would hit the right notes?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Morning all.

    Cheers OGH, - the ‘accidental challenger’ pretty much sums it up. – good luck to both ladies.

    Accidental challengers can only win if there's a strong reason to stop the alternative or if there's a strong campaign behind that candidate that allows them to surf to victory despite their inadequacies. Neither is the case here. May has been careful to avoid building enemies and her greatest failing - immigration - is one that is shared corporately across the government. And while Leadsom has undoubtedly been helped by being the sole remaining Leave candidate - she certainly wouldn't be in the final two were it not for that - it's thus far and no further. The polling indicates that the EURef stance is much less important to most Tory Party members than experience and an ability to unite the party. Sure, there will be some who can't see past the Brexit vote but they're in a minority and Leadsom's other drawbacks will be sufficient to limit the ceiling of her votes to a long way short of the 50% she needs.
    That's conventional political thinking though. In the modern world, especially with small unrepresentative electorates, if people want to vote for a candidate they will find a reason to do so. If no candidate particularly seems to fit with what they want, then the favourite often becomes the one who is more of a blank slate because it is easier to for people to convince themselves that they are likely to become a candidate fitting what they want.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dallas shootings - 5 police now killed. Stand-off still ongoing.

    No mention of the ethnicity of the shooters yet. What an awful situation.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Oh God, change the frecking record: Your dull, condescending and unoriginal. Try a different approach why-don'tch-ya'....?
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
    Her wording still leaves open not leaving the EU by any door.... Which is the lingering doubt she has to dispel over coming weeks.
    I think this is just going to be seen as the 2nd leg of the referendum. A Remain candidate, and a Leave candidate.

    Leadsom win.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,743
    Cyclefree said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Certainly, her views on religion and gay rights (amongst others) should be explored. If she can't field them well then she's certainly not PM material. It sounds as if she responded well to a stupid question yesterday.

    The same goes for May as well; although as she's better-known there might be less room for attack.

    I think we can agree there is a substantial difference between a detailed exploration of a person's views on the one hand, and a load of metrosexual sneering and smart arsery on the other. If she is not up to the job the first will reveal it, the second will drive a sympathy vote and get people's backs up and more determined to prove the lefties wrong by selecting her.
    One person's 'detailed exploration' is another person's 'metrosexual sneering and smart arsery'.

    It's easy for supporters to call the former the latter, especially if she doesn't answer well.
    Come on now, I think the difference between asking a straight question and tenaciously looking for a straight answer, and taking the piss and idiotic twitter memes is clear to almost everyone.
    I think that we can be confident that Leadsom is the "straight choice".

    I don't think much of either candidate. Both are repulsive in their own ways. I cannot see why people consider May as a safe pair of hands. Her lack of achievement is quite noticeable, her claim to fame is the absence of disasters on her watch. She gets off very lightly for doing very nearly bugger all. She does politics like an Italian football team, conceding few goals but also scoring very few.
    That may well be true of May. But, frankly, not fucking things up is about as much as I've come to hope for from politicians at the moment.

    A period of calm from a PM who tries hard not to make a mess of things is probably what this country needs at this point.

    Agree. Absence of disasters or cock ups by itself puts her in the upper quartile of politicians.

    And, from Home Secretaries, way out in front.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    Parliament will not be involved in that. The PM can initiate article 50. Government negotiators will then get to work with EU counterparts, and they will arrive at a deal.

    Parliament will not be debating what deal they would like, they will be voting yes/no. And no means WTO terms, not rejoining the EU.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    Oh God, change the frecking record: Your dull, condescending and unoriginal. Try a different approach why-don'tch-ya'....?
    No. I think I'll give this one 41 years or so. Fair's fair.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146

    Sean_F said:

    That Blue Rinse Agenda in Full.

    1) Repeal all labour passed laws since Wilson got into power.

    2) A grammar school for every town to segregate the thickos.

    3) Restoration of responsible government in Rhodeasia.

    4) No wooftas.

    5) repeal the equality act

    6) No wooftas.

    7) Pardon and reinstatement of pension for Constable Savage

    8) No wooftas.

    9) Compulsory Moose Shooting Lessons.

    10) Abolish the BBC

    11) Repeal the Government of India Act 1946

    12) Reinstate capital punishment

    13). Reinstate birching for young offenders

    14). Income tax relief for the employment of servants

    15). Prison for strikers

    16). A cottage hospital (complete with Matron) in every village, whilst closing down opening up the NHS to competition

    17). Everyone over 50 to be issued with a taser, and lawfully able to use it on anyone under 30 they don't like the look of.
    These are all excellent ideas.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,789
    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    PlatoSaid said:

    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    Its about fear as usual.

    The Leavers fear that May is at best going to give an Out is so close to In that no one could tell the difference, or at worst going to find some excuse to revisit or annul the referendum

    Remainers fear that at best Leadsom is going to be unexpectedly competent and manage a full WTO type exit, and at worse it going to turn into some sort of totalitarian idiot.
    Who are these 'leavers' ? Several vocal leavers on here seem to favour an Out close to In; i.e. EEA / EFTA. Several have come out as supporting May.

    You're splitting people into 'leavers' and 'remainers'. Us and them. That's not just terrible politics; it's wrong.
    May promised not to "re-enter the EU by the back door". If anyone is paying attention by then, I wonder if the EEA/EFTA option will be deemed to be re-entering the EU by the back door.

    Which of course it would be.
    Her wording still leaves open not leaving the EU by any door.... Which is the lingering doubt she has to dispel over coming weeks.
    The tactic of using people as bargaining chips hit all the wrong notes.
    And sacrificing Brits in the EU would hit the right notes?
    Surely the correct thing for a politician to say about this is: "it is in the interests of the UK and its citizens resident in the EU and of the EU countries and their citizens resident in the UK that agreement is quickly reached to maintain the rights of these citizens to maintain their right to live where they do, and so I expect that this will be agreed as one of the first points in the exit negotiations".

    In other words, yes a deal needs to be done but it should be easy and blame them if it doesn't happen...
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Cyclefree said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

    She was the mastermind behind the Congress of Vienna, I believe.
    I heard she took short hand for the treaty of Versailles, and added some notes on debt repayments
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,743

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    The problem with that is that while she is in charge Leadsom could do huge and lasting damage. Even if she only leads for as long as IDS did that's plenty of time to leave a lasting legacy of destruction. She'll have a Brexit deal to do and the Union to save, for a start; then there's Mr Putin. It's mind-boggling she even has a chance of victory.

    I never realised Alastair was Boris writing under pseudonym?

    Plus history suggests that getting rid of bad leaders is not easy and causes a lot of grief..
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    That Blue Rinse Agenda in Full.

    1) Repeal all labour passed laws since Wilson got into power.

    2) A grammar school for every town to segregate the thickos.

    3) Restoration of responsible government in Rhodeasia.

    4) No wooftas.

    5) repeal the equality act

    6) No wooftas.

    7) Pardon and reinstatement of pension for Constable Savage

    8) No wooftas.

    9) Compulsory Moose Shooting Lessons.

    10) Abolish the BBC

    11) Repeal the Government of India Act 1946

    12) Reinstate capital punishment

    13). Reinstate birching for young offenders

    14). Income tax relief for the employment of servants

    15). Prison for strikers

    16). A cottage hospital (complete with Matron) in every village, whilst closing down opening up the NHS to competition

    17). Everyone over 50 to be issued with a taser, and lawfully able to use it on anyone under 30 they don't like the look of.
    These are all excellent ideas.
    18. Weekly free blow-dry and set for all ladies over 50 carrying a Margaret Thatcher Loyalty card.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    Not entirely sure what the purpose of this is:

    http://www.voteleavewatch.org.uk

    Yes, they lied (not uniquely among politicians) - but they also won - so beyond destroying what remains of Johnson & Gove's careers - I guess that leaves Leadsom poster girl for BREXIT?
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
    Just about to post that, so far no putting the boot in.or huge amounts of negative briefing.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cyclefree said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

    Just paraphrasing grandma Fox, who is the only Fox with a vote!

    I have a pretty low opinion of May as one of the least talented frontbenchers, but in my mind she is less bad than Leadsom. May will sign up to an EEA which is close enough to the EU in all but name to keep me happy, her non-EU policicies will be pretty unpleasantly authoritarian though.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    The problem with that is that while she is in charge Leadsom could do huge and lasting damage. Even if she only leads for as long as IDS did that's plenty of time to leave a lasting legacy of destruction. She'll have a Brexit deal to do and the Union to save, for a start; then there's Mr Putin. It's mind-boggling she even has a chance of victory.

    I never realised Alastair was Boris writing under pseudonym?

    Plus history suggests that getting rid of bad leaders is not easy and causes a lot of grief..
    That's a feature, not a bug. The country needs the Conservative party to return to its previous marginal unelectable state if it is to find a positive direction from here. A frenzied and vicious internal party schism would be ideal.

    Fortunately, the chances of that look fairly good at this point.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
    It not her in person that will be the problem, it will be her equivalent of Nick Boles. Someone close to her camp that gets carried away.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    TM could have Labour support of its 'remainy' enough though, although it may go down badly at next election.

    I think having the DM and the Sun come out for TM is a huge help. the focus will be a brutal character assassination of Leadsom that May will take no part of, but it will shift the focus away from Remain/Leave to their suitability, much better argument for TM to be having.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043


    Surely the correct thing for a politician to say about this is: "it is in the interests of the UK and its citizens resident in the EU and of the EU countries and their citizens resident in the UK that agreement is quickly reached to maintain the rights of these citizens to maintain their right to live where they do, and so I expect that this will be agreed as one of the first points in the exit negotiations".

    In other words, yes a deal needs to be done but it should be easy and blame them if it doesn't happen...

    Bit like this:

    “I want to be able to guarantee the legal status of EU nationals who are living in the UK, and I am confident we will be able to do that,” she said.

    “But we must also win the same rights for British nationals living in European countries, and it will be an early negotiating objective for the Government to achieve those things together.”


    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-exclusive-theresa-may-demands-early-talks-on-britain-leaving-the-eu-a3288141.html

    Unlike Leadsom, who only wanted to guarantee EU residents in Britain....
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,520
    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146

    IanB2 said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    The problem with that is that while she is in charge Leadsom could do huge and lasting damage. Even if she only leads for as long as IDS did that's plenty of time to leave a lasting legacy of destruction. She'll have a Brexit deal to do and the Union to save, for a start; then there's Mr Putin. It's mind-boggling she even has a chance of victory.

    I never realised Alastair was Boris writing under pseudonym?

    Plus history suggests that getting rid of bad leaders is not easy and causes a lot of grief..
    That's a feature, not a bug. The country needs the Conservative party to return to its previous marginal unelectable state if it is to find a positive direction from here. A frenzied and vicious internal party schism would be ideal.

    Fortunately, the chances of that look fairly good at this point.
    If the Conservatives become marginal and unelectable, then everybody is marginal and unelectable.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Good morning, everyone.

    Whilst May's a likely victor (victrix?), she needs to be wary of complacency. She can't just turn up and expect to win, and if there's a witch-hunt feel towards the approach the media adopt regarding Leadsom, that may help rather than harm her prospects.

    Silverstone this weekend. First practice is at 10am.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    explain pls
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,789
    Indigo said:

    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
    It not her in person that will be the problem, it will be her equivalent of Nick Boles. Someone close to her camp that gets carried away.
    Possible but she'd aim a kitten heel up their backside so fast...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972
    Wondering who's the leader after May in the 2019 leadership election.

    Boris v. Osborne run off?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited July 2016

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    The guy in the bullet proof vest - I gather they've arrested 3 inc one woman, another man is holed up in a multi-storey carpark.

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering who's the leader after May in the 2019 leadership election.

    Boris v. Osborne run off?

    Seems likely.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,520

    Good morning, everyone.

    Whilst May's a likely victor (victrix?), she needs to be wary of complacency. She can't just turn up and expect to win, and if there's a witch-hunt feel towards the approach the media adopt regarding Leadsom, that may help rather than harm her prospects.

    Silverstone this weekend. First practice is at 10am.

    Both candidates need to set out their platform in two ways:

    1) What they wants out of the EU negotiations;

    2) What their vision for the Conservative Party (and hence immediately the country) is.

    On the second point, in particular, how will they differ from Cameronism?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    The problem with that is that while she is in charge Leadsom could do huge and lasting damage. Even if she only leads for as long as IDS did that's plenty of time to leave a lasting legacy of destruction. She'll have a Brexit deal to do and the Union to save, for a start; then there's Mr Putin. It's mind-boggling she even has a chance of victory.

    I never realised Alastair was Boris writing under pseudonym?

    Plus history suggests that getting rid of bad leaders is not easy and causes a lot of grief..
    That's a feature, not a bug. The country needs the Conservative party to return to its previous marginal unelectable state if it is to find a positive direction from here. A frenzied and vicious internal party schism would be ideal.

    Fortunately, the chances of that look fairly good at this point.
    If the Conservatives become marginal and unelectable, then everybody is marginal and unelectable.
    I think Alastair wants us to become such a basket case that re-entry into the EU, warts and all, is the only way forwards. If that happens it also eliminates the chance of other EU nations following us out.

    If we make a decent go of it and after a year or so we're growing our GDP and we've got an acceptable deal it raises the likelihood of the EU crumbling as other creditor nations begin to weigh up the benefits.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146
    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
    It not her in person that will be the problem, it will be her equivalent of Nick Boles. Someone close to her camp that gets carried away.
    Possible but she'd aim a kitten heel up their backside so fast...
    I can't help wondering if Boles was engaged in deliberate sabotage.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,296

    Cyclefree said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    My mother's view:

    Leadsom is a Leaver, May will not implement the referendum result properly.

    Leadsom has experience of both the City and of European negotiations.

    Leadsom is not a career politician and has experience of the real world outside politics.
    What experience of European negotiations does Leadsom have? Precisely?

    Just paraphrasing grandma Fox, who is the only Fox with a vote!

    I have a pretty low opinion of May as one of the least talented frontbenchers, but in my mind she is less bad than Leadsom. May will sign up to an EEA which is close enough to the EU in all but name to keep me happy, her non-EU policicies will be pretty unpleasantly authoritarian though.

    Sounds about right.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,789

    Good morning, everyone.

    Whilst May's a likely victor (victrix?), she needs to be wary of complacency. She can't just turn up and expect to win, and if there's a witch-hunt feel towards the approach the media adopt regarding Leadsom, that may help rather than harm her prospects.

    Silverstone this weekend. First practice is at 10am.

    I think May will kill with kindness and let everyone else kill with spite ;)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626
    edited July 2016
    I think May will clealy win, Leadsom is too inexperienced as yet but she will have a solid score from the right of the party and May will probably have to give her a Cabinet post, perhaps Business Secretary. If and when May falters or more likely when the Tories eventually lose an election and return to opposition, Leadsom would then be ideally placed to take over and win the party leadership
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    21) Reinstate the Hereditaries.

    22) Abolish life peers.

    23) Repeal the parliament act.

    24) Reinstate the corn laws.

    25) Abolish Devolution.

    26) Abolish the Libdems.

    27) Bill of Attainder on Sturgeon.

    28) Bill of Attainder on Blair.

    29) Bill of Attainder on Gove.

    30) Restore the Jacobite Succession.

    Will this do to wave around on the Central line today?
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Indigo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering who's the leader after May in the 2019 leadership election.

    Boris v. Osborne run off?

    Seems likely.
    Look for a hard-faced man who has done very well out of the war.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,520

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    explain pls
    It's of one of the shooters firing his gun, videod (presumably) from a building above.

    I've been trying to find it online, but no luck so far.

    Chilling.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,972
    May does the thing Gordon Brown did with his jaw.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
    It not her in person that will be the problem, it will be her equivalent of Nick Boles. Someone close to her camp that gets carried away.
    Possible but she'd aim a kitten heel up their backside so fast...
    I can't help wondering if Boles was engaged in deliberate sabotage.
    Who was Boles with before Gove? Boris? There's been so much cross-dressing in the last 10 days...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,094
    Does Leadsome really have a 28% chance of becoming next PM o_O ?!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    TM could have Labour support of its 'remainy' enough though, although it may go down badly at next election.

    I think having the DM and the Sun come out for TM is a huge help. the focus will be a brutal character assassination of Leadsom that May will take no part of, but it will shift the focus away from Remain/Leave to their suitability, much better argument for TM to be having.
    The Telegraph and Express though will give Leadsom a fair hearing and more Tory members read them than the Sun and Mail
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ToryJim said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Whilst May's a likely victor (victrix?), she needs to be wary of complacency. She can't just turn up and expect to win, and if there's a witch-hunt feel towards the approach the media adopt regarding Leadsom, that may help rather than harm her prospects.

    Silverstone this weekend. First practice is at 10am.

    I think May will kill with kindness and let everyone else kill with spite ;)
    Yeaaah.. good observation.
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    Fenster said:

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
    The problem isnt guns, the problem is the racial civil cold war which like the other cold war isnt always in the freezer
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    ToryJim said:

    Indigo said:

    If Leadsom is chosen, I can't see the Tory party falling in line behind her. She'll surely only be able to rely just over half the Tory party at best. There's enough europhile Tories to make life very difficult for her. Can't see her getting full fat Brexit passed, it's a minority option in the country (perhaps about 40-45% at best), and a small minority of parliament.

    That might happen anyway, if May's team spend the next six weeks sledging Leadsom, the 80 odd MPs supporting her are going to be pretty bitter by the end, and May is going to need them to support her program of government. Hopefully she has the sense to rise above it and leave the sledging to the media whilst running a clean positive campaign from her office.
    Nothing in the way May has conducted herself suggests she is anything other than a straight up and down character. Suspect she will be serenity itself as the media and others pile in.
    It not her in person that will be the problem, it will be her equivalent of Nick Boles. Someone close to her camp that gets carried away.
    Possible but she'd aim a kitten heel up their backside so fast...
    I can't help wondering if Boles was engaged in deliberate sabotage.
    Who was Boles with before Gove? Boris? There's been so much cross-dressing in the last 10 days...
    I think he first appeared as a big cheese with the Policy Exchange think tank. They were very close to Cameron back in 2005-10 era.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626

    IanB2 said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    The problem with that is that while she is in charge Leadsom could do huge and lasting damage. Even if she only leads for as long as IDS did that's plenty of time to leave a lasting legacy of destruction. She'll have a Brexit deal to do and the Union to save, for a start; then there's Mr Putin. It's mind-boggling she even has a chance of victory.

    I never realised Alastair was Boris writing under pseudonym?

    Plus history suggests that getting rid of bad leaders is not easy and causes a lot of grief..
    That's a feature, not a bug. The country needs the Conservative party to return to its previous marginal unelectable state if it is to find a positive direction from here. A frenzied and vicious internal party schism would be ideal.

    Fortunately, the chances of that look fairly good at this point.
    As long as Corbynites lead Labour by definition whoever leads the Tories would be electable
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,520
    Fenster said:

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
    It's not that simple though, is it? In some parts of the US having a gun is utterly reasonable especially if you live in the country. They are a tool.

    I've yet to see a realistic reason why people needs semi-automatic guns, or most handguns. Ban the former; heavily restrict the latter.

    But it'd never get through the courts. Yet the current situation is unsustainable as well.

    I used to shoot at school, and have a sister who is a very keen shooter to this day. I'm not anti-gun, but I am for reasonable gun controls. IMO we've gone slightly past 'reasonable' in this country.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Leadsom seems too short to me. May was way ahead in last week's YouGov and it seems very unlikely Leadsom can catch up with the type of coverage she is getting. She needs May to screw this up for her.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
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    agingjbagingjb Posts: 76
    I don't have a vote in the Tory leadership contest, but if I did, I might consider which candidate I would want to entrust with the powers defined in the Civil Contingencies Act.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Incidentally, watched a little of Question Time. Tom Tugendhat seems like a pretty sensible fellow.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    Those are both legal and not going to be reversed. Do we take a punt on an unknown quantity or go for a known authoritarian?

    I don't know.
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    Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    So what? If she won't ban the Pill it's just flag-waving.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Interesting idea - the pact includes Australia, Japan, Canada and Mexico and covers 40 per cent of global economic output.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/pacific-trading-pact-could-let-britain-jump-the-queue-ddgf8p0cn
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,520
    edited July 2016

    Fenster said:

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
    The problem isnt guns, the problem is the racial civil cold war which like the other cold war isnt always in the freezer
    The problem is guns, or at least in part. It's a cycle: criminals have easy access to guns, so cops need to carry guns. As cops carry guns, criminals are more likely to carry guns.

    Cops know anyone they approach might be carrying, and the stupid / scared ones make mistakes (real or otherwise) that are sometimes exacerbated by racial factors.

    It's a mess.

    As an aside, one of the first female racing drivers in Britain, Dorothy Levit, wrote a book for women drivers. The book recommended that women carry a small handgun - I think Colt - that would fit in their handbag.

    She also was one of the inventors of the rear-view mirror.

    Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorothy_Levitt
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    Those are both legal and not going to be reversed. Do we take a punt on an unknown quantity or go for a known authoritarian?

    I don't know.
    Leadsom would be more authoritarian than May in my view, May voted for gay marriage in the end
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,094

    Fenster said:

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
    It's not that simple though, is it? In some parts of the US having a gun is utterly reasonable especially if you live in the country. They are a tool.

    I've yet to see a realistic reason why people needs semi-automatic guns, or most handguns. Ban the former; heavily restrict the latter.

    But it'd never get through the courts. Yet the current situation is unsustainable as well.

    I used to shoot at school, and have a sister who is a very keen shooter to this day. I'm not anti-gun, but I am for reasonable gun controls. IMO we've gone slightly past 'reasonable' in this country.
    Most people who have a gun in the US ain't out in the wilds of Montana though :D
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626

    Incidentally, watched a little of Question Time. Tom Tugendhat seems like a pretty sensible fellow.

    MP for Tonbridge and Malling and ex army
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm on Team Leadsom. If the country is to move in a positive direction we need the scales to fall from the eyes of the more casual Leavers. Appointing a manifest inadequate as Prime Minister should discredit the headbangers, and then we can move on.

    The problem with that is that while she is in charge Leadsom could do huge and lasting damage. Even if she only leads for as long as IDS did that's plenty of time to leave a lasting legacy of destruction. She'll have a Brexit deal to do and the Union to save, for a start; then there's Mr Putin. It's mind-boggling she even has a chance of victory.

    I never realised Alastair was Boris writing under pseudonym?

    Plus history suggests that getting rid of bad leaders is not easy and causes a lot of grief..
    That's a feature, not a bug. The country needs the Conservative party to return to its previous marginal unelectable state if it is to find a positive direction from here. A frenzied and vicious internal party schism would be ideal.

    Fortunately, the chances of that look fairly good at this point.
    As long as Corbynites lead Labour by definition whoever leads the Tories would be electable
    Under FPTP when the two main parties start getting to the mid to low twenties by definition that means that others, LD, UKIP, Greens, etc will be at that sort of level in various parts of the country. Under those circumstances the outcome will be unpredictable.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    So what? If she won't ban the Pill it's just flag-waving.

    The question was about Leadsom's views relative to May, I did not say she would run a government that makes the Taliban look liberal
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146

    Fenster said:

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
    It's not that simple though, is it? In some parts of the US having a gun is utterly reasonable especially if you live in the country. They are a tool.

    I've yet to see a realistic reason why people needs semi-automatic guns, or most handguns. Ban the former; heavily restrict the latter.

    But it'd never get through the courts. Yet the current situation is unsustainable as well.

    I used to shoot at school, and have a sister who is a very keen shooter to this day. I'm not anti-gun, but I am for reasonable gun controls. IMO we've gone slightly past 'reasonable' in this country.
    An acquaintance of mine got a suspended sentence for possessing a WWII pistol that was left to him by a soldier who'd fought at Monte Casino. . Of course, he should have deactivated it, but it just never occurred to him that it was necessary. He looked upon it as an antique, rather than an offensive weapon.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited July 2016
    I was discussing this yesterday, I was quite impressed with her initially, but she's an unknown, myself and three or four party members were going through it. And then one of them linked to the "march", i then realised that she is catnip to nutters. Of the couple who quite liked the idea of her, i was one, we quickly changed our minds. Check up on social media, the UKIP fruitcakes are galvanising around her also.

    No, if she isnt a nutter, the nutters are on the rise. Got to be May.

    http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/leadsom-leader-march-parliament/
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting idea - the pact includes Australia, Japan, Canada and Mexico and covers 40 per cent of global economic output.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/pacific-trading-pact-could-let-britain-jump-the-queue-ddgf8p0cn

    Both @rcs1000 and I have been saying this for a while, unfortunately it is worse than the TTIP as it the latter doesn't have secret ISDS provisions as in the TPP. I'd rather stick with what we have in terms of our US trading relationship which I would describe as WTO+ than sign up to the one sided TPP which the US has bullied Pacific nations into signing up to.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,855

    It's interesting how Leadsom's fans are getting their excuses in early: a bit like leave supporters' making excuses for why they lost before they won. ;)

    Choosing the next PM solely through the prism of whether they supported leave or remain is silly. Although the negotiations will be an important (perhaps the most) task facing the next PM, it's just part of the job.

    The next PM could get the best deal for the UK possible from the EU and still f*ck the country up.

    I'd agree, in general. Leadsom is facing so e scrutiny, she's facing so e mockery. Well you know what, she's trying to become prime minister, if she cannot handle it, even It is unfair, she isn't up for the job. It's like ed m whinges all over again.

    Leadsom has a couple of months to appeal to the Tory base - the rest of us can only hope that in doing so she also demonstrates her worthiness for the job of PM, and no, a handful if decent performances and a backstory don't demonstrate it yet. She may well reveal herself to have the required quality, and Mays positives and negatives are well known, but as much as complaining about media treatment will win her some points, I'd hope she provides more than that.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    I think her objection there was the marriage angle, civil partnerships should be the legal side, marriage should be left as a religious ceremony. That was the law under Blair.

    "Firstly I would like to make clear that I fully support the lifelong commitment that is made between any loving couple and that I believe the legal basis of a same sex marriage should be no different to that of a heterosexual couple.

    I have been considering for a while the impact that same sex marriage would have on the definition of marriage; if the structure of marriage is changed, I have been worrying that this risks undermining the religious institution of marriage."

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/same-sex-marriage--updated/491

    http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2013-02-05b.125.0#g221.0
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    There's some quite remarkable footage coming out of the US of one of the shooters.

    After watching the police murder those two black guys yesterday and now seeing the incredible footage of a man able to legally and openly carry a huge automatic assault rifle down a busy sidewalk, I have no sympathy.

    Guns need to be banned.
    It's not that simple though, is it? In some parts of the US having a gun is utterly reasonable especially if you live in the country. They are a tool.

    I've yet to see a realistic reason why people needs semi-automatic guns, or most handguns. Ban the former; heavily restrict the latter.

    But it'd never get through the courts. Yet the current situation is unsustainable as well.

    I used to shoot at school, and have a sister who is a very keen shooter to this day. I'm not anti-gun, but I am for reasonable gun controls. IMO we've gone slightly past 'reasonable' in this country.
    I know it isn't that simple. It's just sad that after massacres such as Sandy Hook where five year old children pleaded for their mummies before being shot point blank in their heads, there is still little appetite in America to change gun laws.

    And Paul B: Guns are the problem. There are stupid, racist, angry people everywhere. Those people are far less dangerous without guns.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    I think her objection there was the marriage angle, civil partnerships should be the legal side, marriage should be left as a religious ceremony. That was the law under Blair.
    So you'd abolish registry office marriages?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,626

    HYUFD said:

    To Leadsom's supporters: in 50 words, why would you pick her over May?

    Simples:

    May has proven that she trends towards authoritarianism; no liberal would support her candidacy. Leadsom has no track record (except outwith the Westminster-bubble) so I will give her my vote.
    Leadsom is a social conservative too, sceptical about gay marriage and casual sex
    I think her objection there was the marriage angle, civil partnerships should be the legal side, marriage should be left as a religious ceremony. That was the law under Blair.
    Yes but times have moved one
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting idea - the pact includes Australia, Japan, Canada and Mexico and covers 40 per cent of global economic output.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/pacific-trading-pact-could-let-britain-jump-the-queue-ddgf8p0cn

    Like a débutante at the ball. Who doesnt want to do business with us? Free trade always has enemies though.. Those farmers who quite like to import cheap labour to do the picking wont like the idea of tariff free produce from down under.
This discussion has been closed.