Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Construction is going to be utterly horrible for the next 18 months. (Or until we have a destination in mind.)
The attempts by PB Remain supporters to find reasons to trash every leader candidate who supported Leave is very transparent. Just be honest: you do not care about Leadsom waiting a few weeks to disclose her financial arrangements. You are just bitter about the result and want to take it out on every Leaver.
No, we just think she lacks the experience to be Prime Minister.
As leader of the Fresh Start Group she knows more about the pros and cons of the EU than any other MP, having hosted hundreds of hours of interviews. She has been a managing director at a fund manager, making her the only one to run a business. She has spent ten years at Invesco, meaning she understands the financial landscape in depth, making her ideally positioned to negotiate over financial services. She has also spent her years in parliament as a member of the Treasury Select Committee and as Economic Secretary to the Treasury. She excelled so well in that role she was rapidly promoted to Minister.
As I said, you are inventing reasons because you dislike anyone who supported leave. You lost. Get over it.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
I read that there is the equivalent of 28 gherkins worth of new commercial property under construction in London at present.
New Zealand offered us their Trade Negotiators recently, who would be very useful bearing in mind NZ just signed a FT Deal with Taiwan. It appears the idea has been lukewarmly accepted by the UK Civil Service. Our Kiwi friends are "5 Eyes" so its not like we doubt their ability to keep a secret.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
The attempts by PB Remain supporters to find reasons to trash every leader candidate who supported Leave is very transparent. Just be honest: you do not care about Leadsom waiting a few weeks to disclose her financial arrangements. You are just bitter about the result and want to take it out on every Leaver.
No, we just think she lacks the experience to be Prime Minister.
As leader of the Fresh Start Group she knows more about the pros and cons of the EU than any other MP, having hosted hundreds of hours of interviews. She has been a managing director at a fund manager, making her the only one to run a business. She has spent ten years at Invesco, meaning she understands the financial landscape in depth, making her ideally positioned to negotiate over financial services. She has also spent her years in parliament as a member of the Treasury Select Committee and as Economic Secretary to the Treasury. She excelled so well in that role she was rapidly promoted to Minister.
As I said, you are inventing reasons because you dislike anyone who supported leave. You lost. Get over it.
All of that is a good reason for her having a leading role in the BREXIT team - but she has limited Parliamentary experience - a key part of the job for being PM. She's also tainted with LEAVE's baggage.....
The problem with some LEAVErs is that when the only tool they have is a hammer, all problems are nails......
I think we are missing an important point about what the next PM has to do. It's not just Brexit but thinking about resetting the conversation Britain has with itself about the divides so painfully exposed by the referendum result. I had written a thread header on this but in these feverish times, there is so much going on....
Some purist leaver (assuming Leadsom is that - cynic that I am it is just possible that Leadsom switched sides post-2013 for career reasons) is not necessarily going to be the right person to do that. Which side of the campaign they were on is, IMO, less important than whether they are really prepared to take the lessons of the referendum to heart and by that I mean not just what it says about Britain's view of the EU but what it says about Britain - and really think hard about finding a new way forward.
When you're looking for someone to lead you forward, looking back is rarely sensible. Just because someone had a good campaign does not make them suitable for the top job. People who are good salesmen are not necessarily good managers of salesmen. Too much of the assessment of the candidates seems focused on refighting the campaign. We risk seeing the Peter principle in action in this election.
ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win
That does presuppose that people are voting on Leave/Remain lines. Suppose they are authoritarian/libertarian? That would see May, Leadsom and Fox (59%) vs Gove and Crabb (41%).
Crabb is not Libertarian. He is a religious nut job who believes gays can be 'cured'.
Suspect that is *quite* an exaggeration.
Evidence, please? And that he has that belief now?
Is it just me, or did Mr Tyndall just make a borderline libellous statement and then suddenly need to go upstairs for a rest when asked to justify it?
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Construction is going to be utterly horrible for the next 18 months. (Or until we have a destination in mind.)
Yes, which is party why I wanted a coronation and for May to get an executive summary of the deal out there. Even if we're fully out I think it's better than uncertainty at least then people know how to react and can plan accordingly.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
I read that there is the equivalent of 28 gherkins worth of new commercial property under construction in London at present.
As many as that? I can imagine commercial rent is going to trend downwards as these begin to complete, the demand just isn't going to be there for a while IMO.
New Zealand offered us their Trade Negotiators recently, who would be very useful bearing in mind NZ just signed a FT Deal with Taiwan. It appears the idea has been lukewarmly accepted by the UK Civil Service. Our Kiwi friends are "5 Eyes" so its not like we doubt their ability to keep a secret.
Yes - that was jolly helpful - I hope we take it up, pronto.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
In what way does that help people on £7 an hour?
Do you really think that people who work in construction earn that kind of wage?
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
In what way does that help people on £7 an hour?
Do you really think that people who work in construction earn that kind of wage?
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
I think we are missing an important point about what the next PM has to do. It's not just Brexit but thinking about resetting the conversation Britain has with itself about the divides so painfully exposed by the referendum result. I had written a thread header on this but in these feverish times, there is so much going on....
Some purist leaver (assuming Leadsom is that - cynic that I am it is just possible that Leadsom switched sides post-2013 for career reasons) is not necessarily going to be the right person to do that. Which side of the campaign they were on is, IMO, less important than whether they are really prepared to take the lessons of the referendum to heart and by that I mean not just what it says about Britain's view of the EU but what it says about Britain - and really think hard about finding a new way forward.
When you're looking for someone to lead you forward, looking back is rarely sensible. Just because someone had a good campaign does not make them suitable for the top job. People who are good salesmen are not necessarily good managers of salesmen. Too much of the assessment of the candidates seems focused on refighting the campaign. We risk seeing the Peter principle in action in this election.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
Crabb, attractive has good back story from a poor background etc, might be good time to signal the end of the posh boy era. Seems to be on the up and has been promoted etc, but he's still unknown. I don't feel I know him, his character or his policy positions etc. The fact he is evangelical gives me pause, it's one thing to be quietly C of E it's another to be a full tamborine shaker. I'm not sure about these supposed links to a group that believes in 'gay cures'. If that turns out true, that's a deal breaker.
Gove. Hah! Used to like him until he revealed himself to be a duplicitous shit and it turns out having principled stands only works if you agree with them or they actually work. I feel he'd drive us into a deep recession if it meant more sovereignty and freedom, what ever the price. This is the conservative party it should treat with ideologues with suspicion.
Leadson. May be the next Thatcher! she wishes. a tad presumptious and I sense no commited sense of direction from her, nor Thatchers actual political pragmatism (in her early years). No
May it is Solid has done her best, steady hand and recognises the importance of detoxifying the Tory brand, too many here seem to have forgotten the problem no that they are in power and it still is important in holding the party back in gaining more seats in the North,
Despite his problems Mr Osborne was right about needing to boost growth in the North and local devolution and investment in transport infrastructure. It is important these things continue and despite them not being friends I think the best hope is with May.
The attempts by PB Remain supporters to find reasons to trash every leader candidate who supported Leave is very transparent. Just be honest: you do not care about Leadsom waiting a few weeks to disclose her financial arrangements. You are just bitter about the result and want to take it out on every Leaver.
I was fairly supportive to May but that is a damning record. I also remember the fiascos over records of illegal immigrants being lost and testing centres faking results.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
It takes very little google-fu to establish that these figures are in line with a clear trend which started in 2013.
""Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory." In other words, they are nothing to do with Brexit at all (20% is 20%) but we will use them as a peg to talk about uncertainty, which is getting far more air time than it deserves at the moment. Think how much uncertainty you whip up out of thin air when you decide to move house - will I find a seller/a buyer/a mortgage/get on with the new neighbours/be ok with the transport links - and how much of an irrecoverable, short term financial hit you are taking - legals, stamp duty, removals, estate agents. Should we therefore go around campaigning against anyone ever moving house?
And when I see the principle formulated as "business hates uncertainty" I think to myself that business also hates corporation tax, and pesky spoilsport anti-cartel laws, and that business hating something doesn't mean the thing it hates doesn't contribute to the overall good.
''Construction is going to be utterly horrible for the next 18 months. (Or until we have a destination in mind.)''
Amazing how anecdote and survey differ. Coming in from Surrey, the run into Waterloo from Clapham junction is essentially a giant building site!
Yes, so is most of inner London, the PMIs measure order books as well as current conditions though. It is a good guide of confidence in the sector as well. There is no doubt that confidence has taken a hit lately.
''Construction is going to be utterly horrible for the next 18 months. (Or until we have a destination in mind.)''
Amazing how anecdote and survey differ. Coming in from Surrey, the run into Waterloo from Clapham junction is essentially a giant building site!
We have to distinguish between current and future activity. PMI is forward looking. It's a complicated measure, but it includes things like new orders, sales pipeline and so on.
The attempts by PB Remain supporters to find reasons to trash every leader candidate who supported Leave is very transparent. Just be honest: you do not care about Leadsom waiting a few weeks to disclose her financial arrangements. You are just bitter about the result and want to take it out on every Leaver.
I was fairly supportive to May but that is a damning record. I also remember the fiascos over records of illegal immigrants being lost and testing centres faking results.
It's a Gove-inspired hatchet job by a former Murdoch employee even the Telegraph thought unfit to publish.....
''Construction is going to be utterly horrible for the next 18 months. (Or until we have a destination in mind.)''
Amazing how anecdote and survey differ. Coming in from Surrey, the run into Waterloo from Clapham junction is essentially a giant building site!
Yes, of course. All that stuff was planned two years ago, and ground was broken six to twelve months ago. Hence my comment about the equivalent of 28 new gherkins of new commercial space.
What we do know is that new construction and residential projects are going to be put on hold for a period of time because of the level of uncertainty.
I think we are missing an important point about what the next PM has to do. It's not just Brexit but thinking about resetting the conversation Britain has with itself about the divides so painfully exposed by the referendum result. I had written a thread header on this but in these feverish times, there is so much going on....
Some purist leaver (assuming Leadsom is that - cynic that I am it is just possible that Leadsom switched sides post-2013 for career reasons) is not necessarily going to be the right person to do that. Which side of the campaign they were on is, IMO, less important than whether they are really prepared to take the lessons of the referendum to heart and by that I mean not just what it says about Britain's view of the EU but what it says about Britain - and really think hard about finding a new way forward.
When you're looking for someone to lead you forward, looking back is rarely sensible. Just because someone had a good campaign does not make them suitable for the top job. People who are good salesmen are not necessarily good managers of salesmen. Too much of the assessment of the candidates seems focused on refighting the campaign. We risk seeing the Peter principle in action in this election.
It is purely a choice of who is the least useless of the bunch. The candidates are the equivalent of a sellers field at Lingfield, one has to win but will still be useless.
You do wonder what the scores would be if the Tories weren't tearing themselves apart, shooting themselves in each others' feet, without a leader and with their policies under as much doubt as their leadership.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
The facts are foreign sales concentrated in large apartment towers in the central zones of London, as foreign buyers are prepared to buy off plan before the building is built, and therefore allowed builders to raise finance themselves to build rather than the banks who remained reluctant after the last big crash in 2008.
Foreign investment is almost exclusively in new build, only North Americans and Europeans will invest in 2nd hand properties and they are mostly living in them selves. Asian investors will only buy new properties, which matches their home markets of fast growing cities where there are very few older properties that have modern facilities and the market for period properties is extremely limited.
The new build market is 10% of the total number of sales in the UK housing market. In an interesting aside in a survey in the Economist it was interesting to note (though their not sure why) for the last 40 years the percentage of new builds has been exactly 10% of sales. Maybe it's UK market preference, like some people only want new build as they don't want the work and like modern insulation standards etc, while others want period features and will accept only one bathroom and odd room positions and no parking.
Another interesting figure to note is that house sale volumes are half what they were in the 1980's . It can be shown from this the Treasuries addiction to high stamp duty does have a harmful effect on the UK housing market.
It turns out that foreign sales amount to just 3.5% of total sales in London and that figure is really concentrated in zone 1. Logically a few thousand millionaires investors are only like to drive prices in certain sub markets in London. It turns out the majority of them will live in these properties or will be for the children to stay while they study in London, almost no one leaves their property empty, when they could of course rent it out and get some return on their money,rather than have a drain on their finances paying out property taxes.
The real reason of course for London's price rises is that 1 and half million people have moved in other the last decade or so. It's the real reason why Hackney is no longer a shithole and full of hipsters.
There are some interesting insights from Communications professionals about the REMAIN campaign. Roger of course, is an expert in this area. "Stronger In had some of the country’s best creatives and strategists to hand, working with agencies including Adam & Eve/DDB, M&C Saatchi and Saatchi & Saatchi, and WPP creatives such as John O’Keeffe." "one of the key problems was that the Remain camp was determined to take a negative stance. MacLennan says his agency was clear on the need for a positive message." "the public mood was that too much of the Remain campaigning was based around statistics that were either boring, baffling or unbelievable". http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/agencies-anger-failure-stronger-campaign/1400533#
"a clear picture emerges of an ineffectual, unfocused and strategically barren process led by a disjointed committee of cross-party middleweights". "one of the key problems was that the Remain camp was determined to take a negative stance. MacLennan says his agency was clear on the need for a positive message." " One agency chief says that when they first began discussing tactics, there were four key decision-makers from Stronger In around the table. "By the end, there were 24. To say there were too many cooks is an understatement," he says. "What’s more, none of them were senior decision-makers." "Some of the Stronger In task force were recently unemployed Liberal Democrat policy wonks and New Labour heavyweights who’d been sidelined by Jeremy Corbyn. They basically had nothing to do but throw themselves into interfering with the campaign."
You do wonder what the scores would be if the Tories weren't tearing themselves apart, shooting themselves in each others' feet, without a leader and with their policies under as much doubt as their leadership.
Honestly? I don't think they'd be much different. The non-anoraks I talk to are completely oblivious to politics. My family are only still talking about Brexit because I'm interrogating them .
The reason I feel I can generalise based on that is my family is split in twain - we've got one half which is solidly working class - joiners, lorry drivers etc, and the other which has become quite posh (my in-laws included a 'Sir', two CoEs of FTSE 100/250 companies, senior exec in Apple etc).
@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same
Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.
Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.
Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.
As someone with a vote to cast, it seems Leadsom had one good debate (out of two) that has given her the leg up to stand in this contest. I'm thinking that is not enough to make me consider voting for her as PM.
But I still have big concerns that May will all too readily listen to the siren voices that Brexit is "just too difficult to do..." Not implementing Brexit - in some form - would be the biggest "sod you" to the clearly expressed will of the people. The new PM has a duty to find a way. Activating Article 50 is the primary purpose of whoever wins the membership vote. And surely, they'd want to. Any PM not activating Article 50 would carry the can for exposing that we had silently conceded our nation status to an EU that would then have no qualms about bouncing us into the full EU project, now that Cameron's "hard won" detachment from ever closer union has fallen by the roadside.
So I look at May and think "Hmmmmmmm......" Then I look at the rest of the field and think "Noooooo......" Part of me wants a coronation - so then I can blame the MPs for the outcome.
Very interesting. Do you think you are a typical Tory member?
I know you are a Leaver. Where would you place yourself on a Leaver scale from 0 (WTO) to 10 (EFTA/EEA)
EDIT: There's a lot of money at stake here - all my winnings from betting on Leave in the early hours of the 24th. Any intelligence warmly welcomed.
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
Jesus christ.....are you really so out of touch that you have no clue how many people live?
I know that increasing government intervention in the economy does not increase wealth. See France.
What kind of life or prospects do you imagine a young mother or father has in a place like London if they are doing a low skilled job and only have access to the private rental market, private childcare and so on?
"We were simply called upon to provide creative window-dressing, not political strategy. And because Stronger In had no political strategy, we had nothing to say. Of course we struggled to get our message across, because the real art is working out the message in the first place and we weren’t allowed to help with that." Read more at http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/agencies-anger-failure-stronger-campaign/1400533#doH2O7RRXIdARYKi.99
ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win
That does presuppose that people are voting on Leave/Remain lines. Suppose they are authoritarian/libertarian? That would see May, Leadsom and Fox (59%) vs Gove and Crabb (41%).
Crabb is not Libertarian. He is a religious nut job who believes gays can be 'cured'.
Suspect that is *quite* an exaggeration.
Evidence, please? And that he has that belief now?
Who knows. I assume any MP would keep such views quiet. We know he had links with the Christian Action Research and Education which advicates the 'gay cure' after 2010 as they provided interns for his office. We know he voted against gay marriage 3 years ago and declars himself to be a deeply committed Christian.
So personally I think the religious nut job label is pretty accurate .
The 3 key people at REMAIN (BSIE) who dealt with these campaign matters in addition to Osborne (aka the paper bag strategist).
" Will Straw, an associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, is expected to lead the group as executive director. Mr Straw stood unsuccessfully as Labour candidate in the Rossendale and Darwen constituency in May’s general election. He has joined forces with Ryan Coetzee, a South African who was strategy director for the Lib Dems ahead of the election The third political member is Lord Cooper, a former director of strategy in Downing Street under David Cameron. Lord Cooper joined the House of Lords last September and is co-founder of Populus, an opinion polling firm." Financial Times
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
Jesus christ.....are you really so out of touch that you have no clue how many people live?
I know that increasing government intervention in the economy does not increase wealth. See France.
What kind of life or prospects do you imagine a young mother or father has in a place like London if they are doing a low skilled job and only have access to the private rental market, private childcare and so on?
In all honesty, I'd advise them to move away from London. It's great out here in the sticks.
I do appreciate that you were just trying to beat Robert up, so I'll leave you to it.
Not surprised by too many cooks in BSE [although you would've thought one of them might recognise that wasn't a promising acronym]. Remain should've won this at a canter.
Merge sane UKIP with One Nation Tory led by Andrea Leadsome Insane UKIP go and campaign for Britain to leave the UN, led by Paul Nutter Merge Cameroons/Cleggites/hard right Bitterites into a new Progressive Democrats party led by David Milliband Merge remaining Labour/non-Orange LibDems led by Clive Lewis SDP and independent Liberal Parties continue to object to all these mergers and do their own thing
Supposedly to have time with his family. Also the battle is won, and the next battle requires someone else who can better target their future voter base...
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
Supposedly to have time with his family. Also the battle is won, and the next battle requires someone else who can better target their future voter base...
Horrible, horrible Construction PMI, 46.0 against our expectations of 50.2, first real evidence of slowdown, movement seems too large to be a one off.
"Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory. Firms will likely look towards any remedies the Bank of England and the UK Government can offer if the situation worsens postBrexit.
“The only glimmer of light through the brickwork is the rate of decline was not as sharp as that experienced during the last recession. But, with business confidence at a three-year low, and purchasing activity at its lowest level for six and a half years, this is likely to offer little comfort."
Anything to do with the Chancellor's tax increases on BTL? After all they are parasites in your eyes?
Commercial property is down as well.
The policy response in residential terms is straightforward - invest in a programme of building reasonably priced rentals for lower paid workers.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
Don't you think it would be better to reduce state involvement in the economy by, just maybe, borrowing or taxing less?
Jesus christ.....are you really so out of touch that you have no clue how many people live?
I know that increasing government intervention in the economy does not increase wealth. See France.
There was a US study showing that states with the highest amount of pork-barrel spending (from senators if I recall) had lower growth.
Whilst true (and amusing) - there is of course a causation =/= correlation issue. Is that the states with high growth didn't feel the need for pork-barrel spending?
ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win
That does presuppose that people are voting on Leave/Remain lines. Suppose they are authoritarian/libertarian? That would see May, Leadsom and Fox (59%) vs Gove and Crabb (41%).
Crabb is not Libertarian. He is a religious nut job who believes gays can be 'cured'.
Suspect that is *quite* an exaggeration.
Evidence, please? And that he has that belief now?
Who knows. I assume any MP would keep such views quiet. We know he had links with the Christian Action Research and Education which advicates the 'gay cure' after 2010 as they provided interns for his office. We know he voted against gay marriage 3 years ago and declars himself to be a deeply committed Christian.
So personally I think the religious nut job label is pretty accurate .
Crabb, to the Daily Telegraph when asked, Jul 2014:
The Austrian press reports referendum-related maneouvres in relation to the Predsidential re-run. The FPO (far right) candidate had previously proposed a referendum if Turkey joined the EU (not a very extreme demand since it's not happening any time soon); he now proposes one "if the EU becomes more centralised". The Green candidate previously argued for more power to be transferred to the EU in order to strengthen it; he has now muffled that, but is pointing to Brexit as an example of his mess one gets in if one plays around with this.
Meaqwhile, the PM (who is much more powerful than either would be as President) has officially withdrawn the commitment of his predecessors to hold an EU referendum on any changes except maybe Turkish accession.
The attempts by PB Remain supporters to find reasons to trash every leader candidate who supported Leave is very transparent. Just be honest: you do not care about Leadsom waiting a few weeks to disclose her financial arrangements. You are just bitter about the result and want to take it out on every Leaver.
I was fairly supportive to May but that is a damning record. I also remember the fiascos over records of illegal immigrants being lost and testing centres faking results.
It's a Gove-inspired hatchet job by a former Murdoch employee even the Telegraph thought unfit to publish.....
Yes, it is mostly hatchet job and the sort of stuff that explains why the HO has been such a graveyard for the political ambitions of all its previous incumbents. It must say something about May that she has escaped the same fate. And the positive quote about Gove is rather a give away?
I don't see how the people who have spent months explaining why we can't control immigration due the EU can really blame her for the numbers. And some of the suggestions in the article - like patrolling small airfields - are just nonsense. In this time of austerity what government is going to spend money having someone patrolling an airfield watching two old blokes fiddle about with their C172?
The most interesting points - if there is any truth to them - are about her management style and behaviour in meetings. Leadsom too has come in for similar stick, supposedly from her former civil servants. Hopefully this is not just coming from men who don't like working for a woman.
Comments
http://tinyurl.com/h9ytk43
As I said, you are inventing reasons because you dislike anyone who supported leave. You lost. Get over it.
£25bn+ is still flowing out the door in overseas aid to the EU and the ROW.
The problem with some LEAVErs is that when the only tool they have is a hammer, all problems are nails......
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/749884261424041984
Some purist leaver (assuming Leadsom is that - cynic that I am it is just possible that Leadsom switched sides post-2013 for career reasons) is not necessarily going to be the right person to do that. Which side of the campaign they were on is, IMO, less important than whether they are really prepared to take the lessons of the referendum to heart and by that I mean not just what it says about Britain's view of the EU but what it says about Britain - and really think hard about finding a new way forward.
When you're looking for someone to lead you forward, looking back is rarely sensible. Just because someone had a good campaign does not make them suitable for the top job. People who are good salesmen are not necessarily good managers of salesmen. Too much of the assessment of the candidates seems focused on refighting the campaign. We risk seeing the Peter principle in action in this election.
*innocent face*
@graemewearden: UK construction suffers biggest fall since 2009 as Brexit fears bite
Just over six years ago they polled around 30%. Back when people trusted opinion polls.
Amazing how anecdote and survey differ. Coming in from Surrey, the run into Waterloo from Clapham junction is essentially a giant building site!
It's amateurish in the extreme to concede negotiation points before negotiations begin.
We've voted to leave the EU.
That has consequences - and if our valued EU immigrants (and British expats in the EU) are caught up in that, its unfortunate, but unavoidable.
Crabb, attractive has good back story from a poor background etc, might be good time to signal the end of the posh boy era. Seems to be on the up and has been promoted etc, but he's still unknown. I don't feel I know him, his character or his policy positions etc. The fact he is evangelical gives me pause, it's one thing to be quietly C of E it's another to be a full tamborine shaker. I'm not sure about these supposed links to a group that believes in 'gay cures'. If that turns out true, that's a deal breaker.
Gove. Hah! Used to like him until he revealed himself to be a duplicitous shit and it turns out having principled stands only works if you agree with them or they actually work. I feel he'd drive us into a deep recession if it meant more sovereignty and freedom, what ever the price.
This is the conservative party it should treat with ideologues with suspicion.
Leadson. May be the next Thatcher! she wishes. a tad presumptious and I sense no commited sense of direction from her, nor Thatchers actual political pragmatism (in her early years). No
May it is Solid has done her best, steady hand and recognises the importance of detoxifying the Tory brand, too many here seem to have forgotten the problem no that they are in power and it still is important in holding the party back in gaining more seats in the North,
Despite his problems Mr Osborne was right about needing to boost growth in the North and local devolution and investment in transport infrastructure. It is important these things continue and despite them not being friends I think the best hope is with May.
""Though the majority of responses, around 80% were received before the Brexit result, the continuing ambiguity and indecision has flung the sector into unknown territory." In other words, they are nothing to do with Brexit at all (20% is 20%) but we will use them as a peg to talk about uncertainty, which is getting far more air time than it deserves at the moment. Think how much uncertainty you whip up out of thin air when you decide to move house - will I find a seller/a buyer/a mortgage/get on with the new neighbours/be ok with the transport links - and how much of an irrecoverable, short term financial hit you are taking - legals, stamp duty, removals, estate agents. Should we therefore go around campaigning against anyone ever moving house?
And when I see the principle formulated as "business hates uncertainty" I think to myself that business also hates corporation tax, and pesky spoilsport anti-cartel laws, and that business hating something doesn't mean the thing it hates doesn't contribute to the overall good.
What we do know is that new construction and residential projects are going to be put on hold for a period of time because of the level of uncertainty.
1 - The popular "Housing Debate" is mainly a demonisation campaign of sorts.
2 - There's an interesting suggestion that says super-densify the Thamesmead redevelopment and environs to obtain 350k dwellings. From a British Planner with overseas experience.
https://andrewlainton.wordpress.com/2016/03/29/if-londons-green-belt-is-inviolate-you-have-to-redevelop-thamemead-for-350000-dwellings/
You know each of the 27 other EU governments are going to agree to that?
Of course it has to be 'negotiated'.
Who gets to stay? What criteria? etc. etc.
Amateur hour 'give it away now'.....
"Stronger In had some of the country’s best creatives and strategists to hand, working with agencies including Adam & Eve/DDB, M&C Saatchi and Saatchi & Saatchi, and WPP creatives such as John O’Keeffe."
"one of the key problems was that the Remain camp was determined to take a negative stance. MacLennan says his agency was clear on the need for a positive message."
"the public mood was that too much of the Remain campaigning was based around statistics that were either boring, baffling or unbelievable".
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/agencies-anger-failure-stronger-campaign/1400533#
" One agency chief says that when they first began discussing tactics, there were four key decision-makers from Stronger In around the table. "By the end, there were 24. To say there were too many cooks is an understatement," he says. "What’s more, none of them were senior decision-makers."
"Some of the Stronger In task force were recently unemployed Liberal Democrat policy wonks and New Labour heavyweights who’d been sidelined by Jeremy Corbyn. They basically had nothing to do but throw themselves into interfering with the campaign."
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/agencies-anger-failure-stronger-campaign/1400533#
The reason I feel I can generalise based on that is my family is split in twain - we've got one half which is solidly working class - joiners, lorry drivers etc, and the other which has become quite posh (my in-laws included a 'Sir', two CoEs of FTSE 100/250 companies, senior exec in Apple etc).
I know you are a Leaver. Where would you place yourself on a Leaver scale from 0 (WTO) to 10 (EFTA/EEA)
EDIT: There's a lot of money at stake here - all my winnings from betting on Leave in the early hours of the 24th. Any intelligence warmly welcomed.
"We were simply called upon to provide creative window-dressing, not political strategy. And because Stronger In had no political strategy, we had nothing to say. Of course we struggled to get our message across, because the real art is working out the message in the first place and we weren’t allowed to help with that."
Read more at http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/agencies-anger-failure-stronger-campaign/1400533#doH2O7RRXIdARYKi.99
So personally I think the religious nut job label is pretty accurate .
" Will Straw, an associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, is expected to lead the group as executive director. Mr Straw stood unsuccessfully as Labour candidate in the Rossendale and Darwen constituency in May’s general election.
He has joined forces with Ryan Coetzee, a South African who was strategy director for the Lib Dems ahead of the election
The third political member is Lord Cooper, a former director of strategy in Downing Street under David Cameron. Lord Cooper joined the House of Lords last September and is co-founder of Populus, an opinion polling firm."
Financial Times
I do appreciate that you were just trying to beat Robert up, so I'll leave you to it.
Good news for May and Crabb ....
Please Nigel, stay retired. Don't do a Sinatra on us.
Merge sane UKIP with One Nation Tory led by Andrea Leadsome
Insane UKIP go and campaign for Britain to leave the UN, led by Paul Nutter
Merge Cameroons/Cleggites/hard right Bitterites into a new Progressive Democrats party led by David Milliband
Merge remaining Labour/non-Orange LibDems led by Clive Lewis
SDP and independent Liberal Parties continue to object to all these mergers and do their own thing
Just done another YouGov, asked me what I thought of Michael Gove's recent actions and if I felt sorry for Boris
Edit: It seems not. Charlie Falconer has resigned!
"Mr Crabb told The Telegraph: “I don’t support or endorse any views about ‘gay cure’ theology.”"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/10977858/People-diary-Welsh-Secretary-Stephen-Crabbs-close-shave-with-gay-cure-group.html
Do you still maintain that Stephen Crabb believes that gays can be cured, Richard?
Do you have any evidence that CARE advocate the "gay cure"?
If general election this Autumn Farage says UKIP should not target Brexit MPs.
"I'm not going to damn any one of them with my support at this time"
Good man.
Farage: "We have to a Brexit PM. Someone bold with vision. But I'm not going to damn any one of them with my support."
Meaqwhile, the PM (who is much more powerful than either would be as President) has officially withdrawn the commitment of his predecessors to hold an EU referendum on any changes except maybe Turkish accession.
7/1 with PaddyPower
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
I don't see how the people who have spent months explaining why we can't control immigration due the EU can really blame her for the numbers. And some of the suggestions in the article - like patrolling small airfields - are just nonsense. In this time of austerity what government is going to spend money having someone patrolling an airfield watching two old blokes fiddle about with their C172?
The most interesting points - if there is any truth to them - are about her management style and behaviour in meetings. Leadsom too has come in for similar stick, supposedly from her former civil servants. Hopefully this is not just coming from men who don't like working for a woman.