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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big 36 hours ahead in the race to Number 10

Tomorrow MPs will vote by secret ballot in the first round of the 2016 Conservative Leadership Race. The choice will be more than just the party leadership because the winner becomes the next PM.

Read the full story here

OldKingCole

First, like May tomorrow.

JackW

Good Morning PBers ....

Would someone please post an update on the overnight content of Michael Gove's launch speech .

I've had an e-mail alert that he's getting to the Andorra BREXIT option and I don't want to miss any summary that some astute site member might wish to share, probably over several parts I know. But heck we've got to cover this speech fully.

foxinsoxuk

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

OldKingCole

The Telegraph piece doesn’t look helpful to Gove. At all.

IanB2

Who will buy my loverly water-cannons...?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/home-affairs/policing/interview/76852/sadiq-khan-sell-boris-johnsons-water-cannons-£200000

Coming up on eBay very soon.... (although, seriously, quoting a definite price makes me think they may already be sold)

OldKingCole

foxinsoxuk said:

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

Do you expect Gove or Crabb to come second?

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

It's all gone quiet on that front .... Is he running Liam Fox's campaign. Seems probable as Falconer and Fox have both gone for cover ....

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

Do you expect Gove or Crabb to come second?

Gove will be lucky if he beats Fox, never mind Leadsom!

ToryJim

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

JackW

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

IanB2

foxinsoxuk said:

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

Maybe he is working on this latest wheeze which appears to be Corbyn is leader in the country and someone else is leader in parliament?

ToryJim

OldKingCole said:

The Telegraph piece doesn’t look helpful to Gove. At all.

Gove isn't helpful to Gove.

Charles

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

anotherDave

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

The books on the Brexit referendum are going to be great. All the scheming that went into Project Fear, getting various individuals and organisations to parrot a script, and all to no effect.

anotherDave

JackW said:

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

Gove gave a 40 minute speech the other day. What was that if it wasn't his campaign launch?

JosiasJessop

Apparently Boris Johnson is calling on the government to explain how the vote to leave the EU could be good for the country.

Well Boris, many leavers and remainers are united in thinking that one good thing to come out of the Brexit vote is that Boris Johnson will never be PM.

anotherDave

Blair was on Sky this morning. He seemed to suggest getting us to vote again, or getting parliament to overturn the result was possible.

ToryJim

anotherDave said:

JackW said:

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

Gove gave a 40 minute speech the other day. What was that if it wasn't his campaign launch?

An attempt by MacGove at justifying his action of unseaming BoJo from the nave to th'chops.

DecrepitJohnL

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

ydoethur

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

EU are on the spot. If they play hardball and kick us out of the lot, it could cause a severe recession on the continent and especially in Ireland, which would cause another round of the Euro crisis.

If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.

I can see why Merkel wants somebody sane, intelligent and sober in charge. But her moves against Juncker are making matters still worse.

It's a mess, and it's entirely of their own making. If they hadn't imposed Giscard's appalling constitution despite a double referendum rejection, they wouldn't be in this horrendous mess now.

foxinsoxuk

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

Do you expect Gove or Crabb to come second?

Gove.

Best of the Brexiteers.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

It is at best arguable whether either of them were successes though.

ToryJim

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

They spent significant periods as LOTO before an election was held that they came first in. The situations don't bear comparison.

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

Do you expect Gove or Crabb to come second?

Gove.

Best of the Brexiteers.

Good grief, you really don't rate Fox or Leadsom, do you?

daodao

Given that Scotland is on its way out of the UK, it would be ironic if a Scotsman became the next PM. The person chosen also needs to get a move on with invoking A50, from both the UK's and the EU's perspective, and to shorten the period of business uncertainty. I am disappointed that May seems to think that it can wait until 2017.

Charles

anotherDave said:

JackW said:

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

Gove gave a 40 minute speech the other day. What was that if it wasn't his campaign launch?

@JackW believes that Give us somewhat verbose (ie that his launch speech is still ongoing)

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

EU are on the spot. If they play hardball and kick us out of the lot, it could cause a severe recession on the continent and especially in Ireland, which would cause another round of the Euro crisis.

If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.

I can see why Merkel wants somebody sane, intelligent and sober in charge. But her moves against Juncker are making matters still worse.

It's a mess, and it's entirely of their own making. If they hadn't imposed Giscard's appalling constitution despite a double referendum rejection, they wouldn't be in this horrendous mess now.

The EU are just sitting back and keeping options open.

Until they know who they are dealing with and whether EEA or WTO is our objective, they should not play any cards.

ThreeQuidder

Charles said:

anotherDave said:

JackW said:

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

Gove gave a 40 minute speech the other day. What was that if it wasn't his campaign launch?

@JackW believes that Give us somewhat verbose (ie that his launch speech is still ongoing)

And that joke, like the speech, has gone on for too long...

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Third, like Leadsom.

Any news of Charlie Falconer?

Do you expect Gove or Crabb to come second?

Gove.

Best of the Brexiteers.

Good grief, you really don't rate Fox or Leadsom, do you?

Neither my namesake nor the Leaden one. Though TBF they are all dross.

Charles

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

anotherDave said:

JackW said:

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

Gove gave a 40 minute speech the other day. What was that if it wasn't his campaign launch?

@JackW believes that Give us somewhat verbose (ie that his launch speech is still ongoing)

And that joke, like the speech, has gone on for too long...

Not as long as the Faulkner "joke"

edmundintokyo

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

EU are on the spot. If they play hardball and kick us out of the lot, it could cause a severe recession on the continent and especially in Ireland, which would cause another round of the Euro crisis.

If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.

The obvious move is to stand firm on freedom of movement in exchange for the status quo on free trade. That's great for everyone's economy, including Britain's.

ToryJim

daodao said:

Given that Scotland is on its way out of the UK, it would be ironic if a Scotsman became the next PM. The person chosen also needs to get a move on with invoking A50, from both the UK's and the EU's perspective, and to shorten the period of business uncertainty. I am disappointed that May seems to think that it can wait until 2017.

The sooner we invoke A50 the greater the likelihood that we won't get a decent deal and that we end up leaving and moving to WTO rules. That's bad economically. No deal also means huge problems for UK ex-pats potentially as well as our small but significant EU workforce. There is 40+ years of our membership to unpick and we should get it right not get it quickly.

JosiasJessop

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader. Afterwards, he performed necessary surgery to the Labour Party (abolishing Clause 4), updated the party structure, and demolished the tired Conservative party before he became PM. He was hardly inexperienced when made leader, yet alone when he became PM.

You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

anotherDave

Good point from Boris, the government machine needs to be selling the upside of Brexit to Britain now.

"It was wrong of the Government to offer the public a binary choice on the EU without being willing – in the event that people voted Leave – to explain how this can be made to work in the interests of the UK and Europe. We cannot wait until mid-September, and a new PM. We need a clear statement, now, of some basic truths:"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/tory-candidates-need-a-plan-for-brexit---heres-mine-in-5-points/

CarlottaVance

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what?.

Leading their party, for starters. Blair had three & Cameron four years under their belts before they became PM.

How does anyone know whether Leadsom will be remotely good at that?

And Blair had been in parliament 14 years and Cameron 9 before they became PM......

anotherDave

CarlottaVance said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what?.

Leading their party, for starters. Blair had three & Cameron four years under their belts before they became PM.

How does anyone know whether Leadsom will be remotely good at that?

And Blair had been in parliament 14 years and Cameron 9 before they became PM......

The tory contest is in two parts. The first part requires attracting support from MPs.

CarlottaVance

JackW said:

Will the Leadsom and Gove launch speeches overlap .... seems probable.

Gove's already clashed with the Somme commemoration....so it would be a pity to miss the opportunity to clash with Leadsom....

anotherDave

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader. Afterwards, he performed necessary surgery to the Labour Party (abolishing Clause 4), updated the party structure, and demolished the tired Conservative party before he became PM. He was hardly inexperienced when made leader, yet alone when he became PM.

You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

MaxPB

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

blackburn63

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

It is at best arguable whether either of them were successes though.

You could argue forever that any PM is a success, people will never agree.

blackburn63

test

TOPPING

JosiasJessop said:

Apparently Boris Johnson is calling on the government to explain how the vote to leave the EU could be good for the country.

Well Boris, many leavers and remainers are united in thinking that one good thing to come out of the Brexit vote is that Boris Johnson will never be PM.

Wouldn't say never. I dearly hope not but he has one, perhaps two more shots at it.

His challenge is to knuckle down, follow his brief, if he is given one, or create one if not, pick up a few causes, and make himself the obvious 2020-2025 PM in waiting, while rebuilding his loyalty ratings the while.

Meanwhile:
Gove = treachery
May = safe pair of hands
Leadsom = Hansard lecture
Crabb = meh
Fox = dear god no

Still, we are dealing with Cons Party members, so all up in the air. Half of them voted Leave after, all.

CarlottaVance

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader. Afterwards, he performed necessary surgery to the Labour Party (abolishing Clause 4), updated the party structure, and demolished the tired Conservative party before he became PM. He was hardly inexperienced when made leader, yet alone when he became PM.

You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

That's a great reason to give her a leading role in the BREXIT team - but there's more to being PM than BREXIT.....

ydoethur

It wouldn't surprise me if Boris were to back May at some point if he still wants to be leader. After all, she's the only candidate who's significantly older than he is.

If he's given up completely I don't think he'll endorse anyone. Of course, that may come to the same thing in the end.

IanB2

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

Apparently Boris Johnson is calling on the government to explain how the vote to leave the EU could be good for the country.

Well Boris, many leavers and remainers are united in thinking that one good thing to come out of the Brexit vote is that Boris Johnson will never be PM.

Wouldn't say never. I dearly hope not but he has one, perhaps two more shots at it.

His challenge is to knuckle down, follow his brief, if he is given one, or create one if not, pick up a few causes, and make himself the obvious 2020-2025 PM in waiting, while rebuilding his loyalty ratings the while.

Meanwhile:
Gove = treachery
May = safe pair of hands
Leadsom = Hansard lecture
Crabb = meh
Fox = dear god no

Still, we are dealing with Cons Party members, so all up in the air. Half of them voted Leave after, all.

Trouble for Boris is that he thrives on being the centre of attention, and is precisely the opposite of the sort of loyal and worthy team player who might be capable of taking your advice. Particularly as the chances of actually becoming world King at the end of it remain slim.

Alanbrooke

After all the arguments about Germany needing migrants for its future to counter act an ageing population, German DAX companies have so far employed 54 migrants according to a survey in the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/welcher-konzern-stellte-fluechtlinge-ein-14322168.html

TOPPING

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

Apparently Boris Johnson is calling on the government to explain how the vote to leave the EU could be good for the country.

Well Boris, many leavers and remainers are united in thinking that one good thing to come out of the Brexit vote is that Boris Johnson will never be PM.

Wouldn't say never. I dearly hope not but he has one, perhaps two more shots at it.

His challenge is to knuckle down, follow his brief, if he is given one, or create one if not, pick up a few causes, and make himself the obvious 2020-2025 PM in waiting, while rebuilding his loyalty ratings the while.

Meanwhile:
Gove = treachery
May = safe pair of hands
Leadsom = Hansard lecture
Crabb = meh
Fox = dear god no

Still, we are dealing with Cons Party members, so all up in the air. Half of them voted Leave after, all.

Trouble for Boris is that he thrives on being the centre of attention, and is precisely the opposite of the sort of worthy team player who might be capable of taking your advice.

Yes. And it is exquisite.

Knuckle down, not be Boris = have a shot; be Boris...blow it.

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader. Afterwards, he performed necessary surgery to the Labour Party (abolishing Clause 4), updated the party structure, and demolished the tired Conservative party before he became PM. He was hardly inexperienced when made leader, yet alone when he became PM.

You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

That's a great reason to give her a leading role in the BREXIT team - but there's more to being PM than BREXIT.....

It does appear that her conversion to leaving the EU genuinely pre-dated the campaign (and was therefore all the more sudden, given her 2013 speech). I wonder what tipped her over the edge?

IanB2

anotherDave said:

Good point from Boris, the government machine needs to be selling the upside of Brexit to Britain now.

"It was wrong of the Government to offer the public a binary choice on the EU without being willing – in the event that people voted Leave – to explain how this can be made to work in the interests of the UK and Europe. We cannot wait until mid-September, and a new PM. We need a clear statement, now, of some basic truths:"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/tory-candidates-need-a-plan-for-brexit---heres-mine-in-5-points/

Boris and basic truths? My, how far he has fallen!

ydoethur

anotherDave said:

Good point from Boris, the government machine needs to be selling the upside of Brexit to Britain now.

"It was wrong of the Government to offer the public a binary choice on the EU without being willing – in the event that people voted Leave – to explain how this can be made to work in the interests of the UK and Europe. We cannot wait until mid-September, and a new PM. We need a clear statement, now, of some basic truths:"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/tory-candidates-need-a-plan-for-brexit---heres-mine-in-5-points/

Wasn't that his job as leader of the Leave campaign? Why is it suddenly Cameron's fault that it never happened?

This is why he was never likely to make the runoff anyway.

IanB2

Meanwhile the stock market (but not the £) continues to rise; such faith in Carney's ability to prop things up

TCPoliticalBetting

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

Innocent_Abroad

blackburn63 said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

It is at best arguable whether either of them were successes though.

You could argue forever that any PM is a success, people will never agree.

A success is whoever agrees with me about everything. All the time. And I would have expected you lot, of all people, to know that...

CarlottaVance

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader. Afterwards, he performed necessary surgery to the Labour Party (abolishing Clause 4), updated the party structure, and demolished the tired Conservative party before he became PM. He was hardly inexperienced when made leader, yet alone when he became PM.

You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

That's a great reason to give her a leading role in the BREXIT team - but there's more to being PM than BREXIT.....

It does appear that her conversion to leaving the EU genuinely pre-dated the campaign (and was therefore all the more sudden, given her 2013 speech). I wonder what tipped her over the edge?

I don't doubt she's sincere - and have no objection to her changing her mind - which is why I think playing a leading role in the BREXIT team is the best use of her talents - but the risks of her being PM are too high. A largely unknown quantity she will attach all the LEAVE baggage to the government - whereas May will not - anyone asking May where the £350 million for the NHS has gone will get short shrift.....Leadsom won't be able to dodge the question....

JosiasJessop

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader. Afterwards, he performed necessary surgery to the Labour Party (abolishing Clause 4), updated the party structure, and demolished the tired Conservative party before he became PM. He was hardly inexperienced when made leader, yet alone when he became PM.

You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

Useful knowledge and contacts can be used in other positions aside from PM.

Also, there is much more to be done. The EU negotiations are massively important, but so is running the country well.

That is how we should be judging the contenders.

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader.

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

That's a great reason to give her a leading role in the BREXIT team - but there's more to being PM than BREXIT.....

It does appear that her conversion to leaving the EU genuinely pre-dated the campaign (and was therefore all the more sudden, given her 2013 speech). I wonder what tipped her over the edge?

I don't doubt she's sincere - and have no objection to her changing her mind - which is why I think playing a leading role in the BREXIT team is the best use of her talents - but the risks of her being PM are too high. A largely unknown quantity she will attach all the LEAVE baggage to the government - whereas May will not - anyone asking May where the £350 million for the NHS has gone will get short shrift.....Leadsom won't be able to dodge the question....

I agree. It remains remarkable however that she went from "leaving the EU would be a complete disaster, ten years of misery" etc to "we must leave the EU!" in two years.

JosiasJessop

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

Apparently Boris Johnson is calling on the government to explain how the vote to leave the EU could be good for the country.

Well Boris, many leavers and remainers are united in thinking that one good thing to come out of the Brexit vote is that Boris Johnson will never be PM.

Wouldn't say never. I dearly hope not but he has one, perhaps two more shots at it.

His challenge is to knuckle down, follow his brief, if he is given one, or create one if not, pick up a few causes, and make himself the obvious 2020-2025 PM in waiting, while rebuilding his loyalty ratings the while.

Meanwhile:
Gove = treachery
May = safe pair of hands
Leadsom = Hansard lecture
Crabb = meh
Fox = dear god no

Still, we are dealing with Cons Party members, so all up in the air. Half of them voted Leave after, all.

I doubt he will be PM. By the time another opportunity comes along, there'll be young fresh bucks who are better positioned and hungrier, particularly from the 2010 intake, but possibly the 2015 as well.

He'll be yesterday's joked.

Charles

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

EU are on the spot. If they play hardball and kick us out of the lot, it could cause a severe recession on the continent and especially in Ireland, which would cause another round of the Euro crisis.

If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.

The obvious move is to stand firm on freedom of movement in exchange for the status quo on free trade. That's great for everyone's economy, including Britain's.

But politically undoable. So there's no point.

MaxPB

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Charles

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Don't be silly.

Charles

IanB2 said:

Meanwhile the stock market (but not the £) continues to rise; such faith in Carney's ability to prop things up

Cheap (or free) money = asset price inflation
It's why I remained fully invested through Brexit.

volcanopete

Osborne has come out with the most useless post-Brexit action yet in his proposed cut to Corporation Tax.The messages from the EUref were a,we are being screwed by globalised capitalism,b,public services are under extra pressures in some places because of the high level of immigration.Cutting CT is both politically and economically stupid,inappropriate and unwanted.Setting up the Migrant Impact Fund again which Cameron cut, to take the strain off public services in places like Boston and Wisbech would make far more sense.

CarlottaVance

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

MaxPB

Charles said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

EU are on the spot. If they play hardball and kick us out of the lot, it could cause a severe recession on the continent and especially in Ireland, which would cause another round of the Euro crisis.

If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.

The obvious move is to stand firm on freedom of movement in exchange for the status quo on free trade. That's great for everyone's economy, including Britain's.

But politically undoable. So there's no point.

I'm not sure now, it finally seems to have dawned on people that restrictions on free movement on our side will also result in the same on our movement into EU nations. I think some people really believed it would be a one way street and we would be able to restrict EU movement into the UK but UK workers would retain unfettered access to the EU.

Scott_P

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

Cyclefree

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader.

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

That's a great reason to give her a leading role in the BREXIT team - but there's more to being PM than BREXIT.....

It does appear that her conversion to leaving the EU genuinely pre-dated the campaign (and was therefore all the more sudden, given her 2013 speech). I wonder what tipped her over the edge?

I don't doubt she's sincere - and have no objection to her changing her mind - which is why I think playing a leading role in the BREXIT team is the best use of her talents - but the risks of her being PM are too high. A largely unknown quantity she will attach all the LEAVE baggage to the government - whereas May will not - anyone asking May where the £350 million for the NHS has gone will get short shrift.....Leadsom won't be able to dodge the question....

I agree. It remains remarkable however that she went from "leaving the EU would be a complete disaster, ten years of misery" etc to "we must leave the EU!" in two years.

Particularly as she has not explained what changed her mind. And how she would propose dealing with the downsides and the negotiations.

Has she done any of that? And if not why not?

Cyclefree

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

Hmm...... Smells like an excuse to me.

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

CarlottaVance

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

How would you change it?

TCPoliticalBetting

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

That parasite label applies to a lot of people who post on here. Even red tyson!

blackburn63

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Parasite?

ydoethur

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

My thoughts on an exciting but financially disadvantageous race are up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2016.html

On-topic: May supporters might well feel at liberty to vote elsewhere, given her enormous lead. But cui bono?

Probably not Leadsom. Perhaps not Gove. Could Crabb do better than expected?

Edited extra bit: did mean to make a small donation, but some money I was expecting hasn't come through yet. Prefer to use that, so I'll give it a week or so.

Jonathan

Leadsom is dangerous

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

My thoughts on an exciting but financially disadvantageous race are up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2016.html

On-topic: May supporters might well feel at liberty to vote elsewhere, given her enormous lead. But cui bono?

Probably not Leadsom. Perhaps not Gove. Could Crabb do better than expected?

The risk with May supporters backing Crabb is that he is the one who might spring a surprise among the membership particularly in the event of another migration crisis. If they really wanted to guarantee her win, Gove is the one they should vote for. A fluffy dog would beat him.

Moses_

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ToryJim said:

All I'm hoping is that Leadsom doesn't make the cut as the prospect of so inexperienced a person being preferred by the membership is not one I care to contemplate. The ramifications for our country would be severe.

Inexperienced at what? Neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ever held ministerial office before entering Number 10.

Blair had held a series of shadow roles, including shadow home secretary before becoming leader.

Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.

When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.

The rest of this parliament is going to be entirely focussed on the EU deal, and reviving old ex-EU alliances.

Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.

That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.

That's a great reason to give her a leading role in the BREXIT team - but there's more to being PM than BREXIT.....

It does appear that her conversion to leaving the EU genuinely pre-dated the campaign (and was therefore all the more sudden, given her 2013 speech). I wonder what tipped her over the edge?

I don't doubt she's sincere - and have no objection to her changing her mind - which is why I think playing a leading role in the BREXIT team is the best use of her talents - but the risks of her being PM are too high. A largely unknown quantity she will attach all the LEAVE baggage to the government - whereas May will not - anyone asking May where the £350 million for the NHS has gone will get short shrift.....Leadsom won't be able to dodge the question....

I agree. It remains remarkable however that she went from "leaving the EU would be a complete disaster, ten years of misery" etc to "we must leave the EU!" in two years.

"......In the same way, I tell you that there will be more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety nine 17.6 million righteous ones who do not need to repent."

Cyclefree

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

blackburn63

I heard May on R4 last week, quite impressive, they played an old clip of her referring to The Nasty Party. Looking at the way tories are prepared to rip their supposed colleagues apart there's a fair way to go. What a horrible bunch of people they are, scheming, backstabbing, two-faced, egged on by their obsequious supporters.

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

How would you change it?

I've laid out ways to change it on here enough times. The gist is a new LVT of 3-5% on second properties, 25 year exemptions for new builds. It still allows someone profit from investment in new build property and in redevelopment of existing property, but not from buying an existing property which requires minimum risk.

Morris_Dancer

Call to prayer heard in the Hagia Sophia for the first time in eight decades:
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/749855407410188288

Imagine hymns sung in a conquered mosque in Mecca.

Scott_P

Andrea Leadsom was under mounting pressure last night to publish her tax returns after Michael Gove revealed his financial affairs.

The Justice Secretary said that Conservative leadership candidates should be “transparent about their income”.

Mrs Leadsom was refusing to publish her tax return unless she reaches the final two of the Conservative leadership contest amid concerns that it would create a “precedent” for all MPs to follow.

Liam Fox also agreed to publish his return but only if he makes the final two candidates, while Stephen Crabb will publish but did not confirm when. Theresa May is also expected to publish her return, possibly today.

Ms Leadsom has previously faced scrutiny over her tax affairs for using offshore bank accounts as part of a property business she ran with her husband.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/

MaxPB

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

That parasite label applies to a lot of people who post on here. Even red tyson!

Yes, the middle classes are great at it which is why they squealed the most when the government finally took aim at BTL.

eek

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

How would you change it?

It is an asset type where different customers are treated differently. Buying your own property, loans have to be paid out of taxed income, buying a property you let to others loans can be paid out of untaxed income.

Scott_P

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

ydoethur

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

blackburn63

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Big_G_NorthWales

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Cyclefree

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.

OldKingCole

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

Historically of course, renting was very common indeed, and, as with, for example, Germany, it was considered normal practice, not just something for the less wealthy.

ydoethur

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Why shouldn't she hand a man who has never been elected to any office in his own strength and whom everyone in Europe hates a seat at her negotiating table?

Or was that a rhetorical question?

The man I would look to have involved in some way is William Hague, who ticks many boxes from that point of view - euro sceptic who softened his stance, popular, affable, good negotiating skills, commands general respect in the Conservative party, etc.

HYUFD

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

IanB2

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

The part where existing property is bought by someone who should invest their money elsewhere. Buy-to-let is parasitical, it transfers wealth from the working classes and less wealthy to the usually wealthy non-working classes.

That parasite label applies to a lot of people who post on here. Even red tyson!

Yes, the middle classes are great at it which is why they squealed the most when the government finally took aim at BTL.

The rise of BTL was one of the most distorting outcomes of the 2008 crisis, working to transfer wealth between the generations and slowly concentrating property ownership in the hands of a minority. So undoing much of the social progress of the later 20th C. That even a Conservative government is slowly tilting things against BTL is evidence that this problem is now understood by our politicians. If the whole BTL phenomenon starts to unwind it will be a good thing. Ironically Brexit may just give it the push it needs.

For Leadsom personally it might be something she finds used against her in a campaign, but it's hardly up there with the big scandals; I am sure I read somewhere that nearly 40% of MPs are at it.

SquareRoot

"prepared to rip their supposed colleagues apart there's a fair way to go. What a horrible bunch of people they are, scheming, backstabbing, two-faced, egged on by their obsequious supporters"

I think you said that yesterday, and probably the day before and probably the day before that.

blackburn63 said:

I heard May on R4 last week, quite impressive, they played an old clip of her referring to The Nasty Party. Looking at the way tories are prepared to rip their supposed colleagues apart there's a fair way to go. What a horrible bunch of people they are, scheming, backstabbing, two-faced, egged on by their obsequious supporters.

blackburn63

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

Big_G_NorthWales

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

She has some questions to answer today. Her position over Farage and close links with UKIP, her evasive answers on her tax return and tax vehicles she is alleged to have used to avoid inheritance tax, and the reports from her former colleagues how difficult she was to work with.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

That does presuppose that people are voting on Leave/Remain lines. Suppose they are authoritarian/libertarian? That would see May, Leadsom and Fox (59%) vs Gove and Crabb (41%).

IanB2

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

These "too many people" including UKIP, which is the biggest concern.

blackburn63

ydoethur said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Why shouldn't she hand a man who has never been elected to any office in his own strength and whom everyone in Europe hates a seat at her negotiating table?

Or was that a rhetorical question?

The man I would look to have involved in some way is William Hague, who ticks many boxes from that point of view - euro sceptic who softened his stance, popular, affable, good negotiating skills, commands general respect in the Conservative party, etc.

Never been elected?

Every in Europe hates?

Well that's the facts dealt with I guess.

Big_G_NorthWales

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

He is toxic in any any negotiation with the EU

kle4

Lowlander said:

kle4 said:

Tykejohnno said:

rottenborough said:

Tykejohnno said:

TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win

Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-507990764

Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.

If that's the excuse of backtracking on brexit,we are living in dangerous times.

It is legally true, but politically there will not be such a backtracking, it is simply not viable. Were there to be some major dramatic change, no bleating from the out is out and that's that crowd could change that it is possible for the people to be asked again - as has been said many times today, when the facts change, I change my mind, and if there was a new situation which justified it, Brexit could be stopped. Nevertheless, what such a massive change that could lead to such an outcome is is unclear, and very very unlikely to occur, so Leavers dont' need to get so upset about the true fact that our referendums are not binding.

So there will not be backtracking on Brexit. What there may well be is a lot of claims there has been, because some people will not get the form of Brexit they ont.

While there may be a reason to reverse Brexit in the future, that was not what the UK voted for on June 23rd. The UK voted to Leave. Not eventually, not when it was convenient, but immediately.

It's amazing to me how many things people think we voted on on the 23rd which we did not. The referendum question said nothing about when we would leave, just whether or not we should. In fact, arguments occurred during the campaign precisely because it was unclear when the declaration should occur. Also, delaying is not the same as reversing.

I highly doubt we can continue to delay until the end of the year, and maybe it would be a good idea to do so immediately, but to say the people voted to declare immediately is simply factually incorrect.

We are seeing a lot of claims any action other than that which individuals want is anti democratic, and it's nonsense.

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Why should she?

The government can pick who it wants, clearly, therefore people are free to feel some other people should or should not be involved. Depending on what we Intend to ask for,he might be a liability.