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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP, Nick Palmer, looks at what the party might do
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP, Nick Palmer, looks at what the party might do
If recent weeks have taught us anything, it’s that forecasting is a mug’s game – there may be pundits here who have always been right, but I can’t think of any – certainly not me. So the wise thing for reputations is to keep your head down.
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John McDonnell (40/1), Clive Lewis (33/1), Owen Smith (33/1) or Ed Miliband (200/1)
This advice is given with the best possible intentions
Admittedly, all this fuss and chaos to get the mighty Eagle in charge seems pointless. She might make a good social worker with all that weeping and wailing last week, but that is about it.
On another point I put a ton on the sublime Roger at 20's. Unbelievable odds for Wimbledon. Do I stick or twist?
It's just such a moving piece of commentary. It's ironic that something Eddie Waring intended as so humane and so sympathetic, became so memorable in its own right that public memory of Don Fox - a man with a long and successful career - was forever crystallised in one moment of failure, in a final in which he was man of the match!
The drama of professional sport is a diet of success and failure. Failure is the flip side of the coin that every Englishman has acquaintance with, but those few words really capture the essence of it.
Fox's reaction to David Coleman informing him he'd won that award (at the end of the video clip in the first link), is also very affecting. Apparently the mental anguish lasted for many years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebu4TQzBfGg
This has probably been the most frustrating F1 weekend for a while, from a betting perspective. The race was very exciting, but got none of three tips right.
If the cat won, that would be a tail to tell.
'Your last eight words answer your question. A few other considerations though:
1) A military background is a great defence if you're going to push a dovish military policy.
2) Corbyn can't run for PM with nearly all his candidates having said he's shit. Anyone who isn't Corbyn would be better. If Cornyn had an identical twin, he would be better.
3) Lewis can run on Change, which is much better than Corbyn, who looks like he's running on giving the Winter of Discontent another go.'
TV appearance is important but not all, if Blair and JFK had been hardcore socialists they would not have come near winning the UK premiership and presidency.
1. No it is not, just ask John Kerry.
2. Well John Prescott would be better than Corbyn, that is not saying much
3. No Lewis will run as continuity Corbyn with an even more pro-immigration line, the last thing Labour needs now
https://twitter.com/f1writers/status/749598583448539136
I am interested in some of the ideas that McDonnell has been advancing on the economic front, but I wouldn't vote for him or I think for a "proud socialist" such as Lewis.
The good Dr. Palmer's article is interesting from the point of internal party management, and the betting opportunities thereof, but I think is silent on how to make the Labour party once again relevant to the national picture.
If few are listening then it doesn't matter what you say or who is in charge.
As I said below, it cannot be Eagle. Frying pan and fire springs to mind. She came 4th in the Deputy Contest FFS.
As said, I would like someone with charisma....that is it for me....we have a few, Dan Jarvis, Starmer, Chukka, Yvette, and from the left Clive Lewis. McDonnell- I don't know whether he has too much baggage, but he needs to be at the centre of things going forward.
Our two serious heavyweights- Balls and D Miliband, sadly, they need a seat, so a bit pointless mentioning.
I can see the retrospective argument for STFU but it's too late for that now. They need a new leader. If the left have any sense they'll nominate one.
Hamilton should be investigated and disqualified, so that my Raikkonen bet comes off.
On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.
'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf
Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
(page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)
This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion
For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."
Of Scotland's regions, Southwest, Eastern and Northeastern are all deemed in the 'more developed' category whereas Highlands and Islands is transitional. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/information/cohesion-policy-achievement-and-future-investment/factsheet/united_kingdom_en.pdf
Scotland gets a share of the UK's developed area funds of Euro 800 million pa (3 out of 30 benefiting regions), so say Euro 80 million pa and its share (1 region of 10) of the Euro 350 million pa transition region funding, so say Euro 35 pa. For round numbers, lets say the two come to GBP 100 million pa.
EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.
I can't calculate a definitive number, but my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget at around GBP 575-755 million pa.
Edit: oops, forgot the million in the last sentence.
Yes, people joined the party in order to vote for him specifically. Yes, he has more name-recognition right now among Labour's more casual acquaintances and that helps with the £3 vote.
But he also has negatives that other candidates from the "serious Left" don't: viz, it's become clear he has lost the support of the bulk of the parliamentary party and this will reduce his effectiveness for the remainder of this government, and people who support his policy positions may now be wary of his leadership style. This will cost votes from Labour's soggily unfactioned middle.
It's possible that the negatives outweigh the positives at this stage, and that a "fresh" left-winger would have a better chance of victory among the membership. Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy or A. N. Other might have issues with the name recognition now but a good blast of publicity, with Corbyn's strong support, could change that. McDonnell has less of an issue in the name recognition stakes but a disadvantage in freshness.
https://twitter.com/killeroc/status/749599541620604928
No such person exists, and post 1979, never has, and probably never will.
Regarding Corbyn, I think Tony Blair beautifully summed him up in five succinct word - The Man With A Placard. Where do Labour go from here? Frankly, I don't really care - as long as they are a million miles away from government.
This is a fight between the immovable object vs the resistable force.
Corbyn is immovable and the MP's are isolated from the rest of the Labour party.
Apparently there are gong to be two investigations: one into the collision, and the other into Rosberg driving an unsafe car.
I can't really apportion blame until I see the normal lines through that corner, but from the tyre marks, Rosberg was way off-line.
(*) Mrs J thought I was being murdered; I bashed my knee running from the kitchen into the dining room to listen to the radio, then screamed again when it turned out Hammy was in the lead.
There's a typo under point (3) though - you've duplicated the sub-bullets from point (1)
Thank you for the article, Nick. I'm not a Labour voter or supporter but the country needs an effective alternative credible Government and if we have to rely on the factionalism of the Conservatives to provide opposition then we're in trouble.
The problem for me is the centre-left has consistently failed to provide a coherent economic alternative - yes, there's a socialist option involving much greater taxation for the wealthy but I can't see England in particular accepting that. Unjustly, I think, the failure of 2008 was laid at the door of the left but the resulting austerity has also been a dead end since no Government has had the political will to do it to any significant extent.
I think McDonnell has some interesting ideas (as do others) but the central conundrum of trying to provide adequate public services for an ageing population has been masked by migration and there has been a revolt against that.
We all (and that includes Conservatives) have a lot of thinking to do if we are to provide a decent society for the 2020s and that may mean the wholesale slaughter of sacred cows.
The problem with the article for me is that you duck the main electoral issues. You don't mention Corbyn's lack of leadership ability. You don't mention his lack of electability. You only mention the PLP's dissatisfaction with Corbyn in your conclusion - and then state "there’s no need to go on about it further".
I agree an alternative leader needs to come up with a positive message. But we can't ignore the reasons why an alternative leader is now urgently needed.
So some regions will be bumped up in the wealthy list.
Didn't expect to see this either
Keith Vaz MP @Keith4Leicester 1h1 hour ago
1st time ever we have 3 Black Shadow Cabinet Members. A great message for Diversity @jeremycorbyn @KateOsamor @labourlewis @HackneyAbbott
That way both sides will avoid embarassment.
I agree with Nick Palmer's conclusion except that whether a candidate has wider electoral appeal beyond the Labour membership does not really come into it at this stage. Too many Labour members consider naively that if a candidate appeals to them, he/she will appeal to the electorate at large, which is one of the reasons we ended up with Corbyn.
My 12 year old daughter recently took in a stray kitten, which was very small, but after a couple of weeks on milk has suddenly turned into a rather assertive little ball of claws and attitude, on the plus side it now has a taste for the absolute cheapest canned sardines I could find at the local store, going for the princely sum of P13 per tin (about 18p) and a tin lasts for at least two meals.
We'll see how this plays out.
I'm still galled my 15 (each way) bet on Raikkonen winning failed. Doesn't get much closer than 0.3s off. Damned Ferrari strategists. They're about as competent as Labour conspirators.
Basically Brexit is the same as when Slovenia left Yugoslavia.
They were the most prosperous and democratic of the yugoslav states and they didn't want to pay economically and be hamstrung politically from the more backward members.
Once Slovenia left, the economic and political cost for the Croats for staying in Yugoslavia was unacceptable.
Political Unions usually start unravelling when the most prosperous and developed regions no longer want to pay up for the less developed regions and feel hamstrung by them, that's why Brexit happened and not Grexit.
A new alternative leader who proposes large increases in taxation is not going to get elected by middle Britain no matter how appealing his other social policies are.
A new alternative leader that proposes soaking the rich to pay for lots of "good things" is not going to get a serious hearing because there are not enough "rich" and those that are have too many options, including relocation, to avoid it.
A pro-EU/EEA new alternative leader is not going to get taken seriously if he talks a lot about soaking corporations with big tax hikes because that is what the EU/EEA was designed to enable.
A pro-immigration new leader is going to pile up seats already safely in the bag in London and lose seats in the North by the handful.
All the above views are sacred cows for metro-labour and labour activists. So what platform could a new leader propose that would be acceptable to activists and metro-labour, and would stand the faintest chance of winning a general election.
What will Labour in the 2020's stand for.
The old shadow cabinet was spending most of it's time trying to topple Corbyn than doing it's job.
A fight between the immobile object vs the resistable farce.
Presumably you can't open and close nominations before Corbyn resigns?
More likely that Rosberg's personal rivalry affected his ability to turn the steering wheel.
https://twitter.com/tabcomau/status/749603007424192512
Incidentally, if he gets a 5s penalty he retains the win. For a 10s penalty he gets 3rd. That said, if he gets a penalty I imagine it'd be relatively severe.
Rosberg is likelier to get one, on account of the fact it was entirely his fault.
What is the point in the labour party muddling along when they full well know he is a total turn off for the electorate as a leader. Mcdonnell is the worst, who calls for calm whilst mobilising momentum to picket constituency MPs.
Thank you
From Lebedev's Independent:
"Theresa May has warned that the future of European Union citizens living inside the UK is uncertain and their status will be part of any Brexit negotiations."
(my emphasis)
On a personal note: if my EEA ex-wife is slung out of the country, at least I can make the "every cloud" observation.
Of course Labour won't get elected to government, but that is a small price to pay.
To think Rossy and Hammy used to be friends from childhood.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2016.html
Hopefully they can sort themselves out one way or another, to fulfil their role of opposing the government.
With indications of an early general election off the menu the coup that was partly precipitated by that prospect has stagnated.
Nevertheless the strategic problems for Labour remain :
1. Corbyn remains LotO until 2020 - Corbyn will never become PM and will lose dozens of seats at a general election.
2. Corbyn-lite is LotO - Corbyn-lite will never become PM. Smaller loss of seats.
3. Non Cobynista is LotO - Hung parliament possible.
4. Labour will not lose a general election because they are not left wing enough.
5. Rinse and repeat until Labour have learnt the lesson.
Much of the British population is in debt to moneylenders to the tune of several years' salary.
Britain has in the past few years spent billions on fighting two wars in Asia in which it had no achievable overall military aim, and which it lost.
Meanwhile the skyscrapers in the square mile rise ever higher.
Fog in Channel: Continent Cut Off.
If someone had actually thought of spending some money since 1973 on encouraging British people to think of the EU as "us", as many French and German people do, there wouldn't be this trouble now. Even now much of the political discourse in this benighted country contains such thoughts as Britain must "demand" access to the single market, etc.
Many people don't get it that the relationship between Britain and foreign countries isn't like the relationship between private boarding schools and state schools or the local townies.
The centring of the British economy around the City of London makes it more not less precarious.
But no foreign johnny's going to tell Mr Poshy-Sir to get what he's given and like it, right?
And how does that argument about the difference between Brexit and Grexit work? You think Britain was more developed and prosperous and wants to pull out of the Britain-plus-foreigners union rather than keep having to support those impoverished and underdeveloped foreigners? So why then didn't foreigners in the foreigners-plus-Greece union boot Greece out? Sure, it can't be done legally, but there are ways and means and it wouldn't cost much money. Berlusconi got booted out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/angela-merkel-to-oust-jean-claude-juncker-as-europe-splits-deepe/
And a similar point can be made about Scotland. Money should be spent on building cultural friendship.
It makes the lottery's funding choices seem sane.
Technology is getting seriously sexy *and* worrying:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36694899
Is there any serious evidence base about what "town twinning" actually provides, other than foreign jollies for local officials and the likes?
And to be fair that same mistake could be made from central UK government as wel.
Maybe it's me, but I just don't identify as European. I've spent plenty of time in Europe, for both business and pleasure. I've European friends and ran a European team. I love France as a second home, though my French is still terrible.
Still, I feel resolutely English, then British, then human. European? It's an extra level of indirection that I don't need. Maybe it's my love of history; I recognise a shared Judeo-Christian, Graeco-Roman heritage and that's enough.
Our relationship with the EU has been poisoned by an unpleasant coalition of Murdoch, Dacre and latterly Farage.
[That said, I did get lucky earlier in the year so I can't moan too much].