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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP, Nick Palmer, looks at what the party might do

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725
    Interesting detail from ICM's Sun poll today. 67% of voters think the most important task for the next PM is to steady the economy compared to just 28% who think the most important task is to tackle immigration. That suggests an EFTA deal would have a comfortable majority of voters but UKIP could gain around a quarter of the votes at the next election as a result
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1381284/theresa-mays-winning-high-stakes-gamble-as-60-of-tories-say-she-should-be-the-next-pm/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Tomorrow is not the 11th. I dare say they'll work something out.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Given the frustration, I wanted to get it done.

    [That said, I did get lucky earlier in the year so I can't moan too much].

    Oh go on have a good old moan .... what's PB for if you can't have a decent hizzy fit on a Sunday afternoon that utterly devoid of reason, sense and proportion? .. :smile:
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    John_M said:

    Brexit? A mere trifle. A far more serious danger is almost upon us. Apparently The Great British Bake Off is exiting the BBC. The sky is falling!

    Excellent news.

    Top Gear has proved to be an utter failure and now The Great British Bake Off is set to move to ITV.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,993
    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Indigo said:

    John_N4 said:

    If someone had actually thought of spending some money since 1973 on encouraging British people to think of the EU as "us", as many French and German people do, there wouldn't be this trouble now. Even now much of the political discourse in this benighted country contains such thoughts as Britain must "demand" access to the single market, etc.

    Erm no. Spending public money on telling the British people how they should think is a disgrace. We rightly lambast the EU for pouring money (our money) into British institutions with attached conditions concerning how they should think and how they should only say nice things about the EU, we should apply no lesser standard to our government. Do they do it, yes, should they do it, no!
    I used to get slightly peeved (not annoyed) by signs saying things like "this project brought to you by EU funding", usually with the EU flag. Especially when a similar project just a mile or two away failed because they were in an apparently in a geographically richer area. When anyone with local knowledge knew that was not the case.

    It makes the lottery's funding choices seem sane.
    And the funding is simply recycled British money; the difference between our gross and net EU contribution.
    Yes. Although it was not necessarily the funding that peeved me: it was the fact that decisions were being made according to some regional differentiatior and not the real situation on the ground. Basically, I doubt whoever signed off the decision had ever seen the villages concerned.

    And to be fair that same mistake could be made from central UK government as wel.
    But at least we could hold the UK government to account for its mistakes.
    Indeed. Twenty years ago I knew a fair few people annoyed by just such a decision. They had the impression that no-one from the EU or the local MEP had seen the local situation, and were instead making decisions on broad regional figures alone. And I daresay we can all think of areas where rich and poor intermingle at fairly close proximity.

    Perhaps (and only perhaps) if the local MEP and a representative from the relevant EU department had turned up in the media to look at the relevant projects before the decision it *may* have made a difference. The locals may have felt they were listened to.

    Perhaps the EU has lost the UK by appearing detached. Signs saying 'funded by the EU' are just a tiny part of what is required. It's lazy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    edited July 2016
    Jeremy Corbyn has proved he is not someone who can lead a political party. He is a poor communicator, he does not understand or accept the need ever to compromise, he is not collegiate, he is not inspiring, he is not very bright and he gives no indication of having any interest in winning a general election. You can get away with one or two of these traits, but not all of them. My sense is that a growing number of Labour members are beginning to understand this. With time, more will.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    F1: suggestion here there was a yellow flag at the point of the overtake:
    https://twitter.com/JLSupercar/status/749606903744004096
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,993

    Indigo said:

    John_N4 said:

    If someone had actually thought of spending some money since 1973 on encouraging British people to think of the EU as "us", as many French and German people do, there wouldn't be this trouble now. Even now much of the political discourse in this benighted country contains such thoughts as Britain must "demand" access to the single market, etc.

    Erm no. Spending public money on telling the British people how they should think is a disgrace. We rightly lambast the EU for pouring money (our money) into British institutions with attached conditions concerning how they should think and how they should only say nice things about the EU, we should apply no lesser standard to our government. Do they do it, yes, should they do it, no!
    I used to get slightly peeved (not annoyed) by signs saying things like "this project brought to you by EU funding", usually with the EU flag. Especially when a similar project just a mile or two away failed because they were in an apparently in a geographically richer area. When anyone with local knowledge knew that was not the case.

    It makes the lottery's funding choices seem sane.
    To be fair there has been a steady drip of negative stories over the years, some of them totally fictitious and written by a particularly imaginative correspondent, who was subsequently dismissed. And we all know that a lie etc.
    Our relationship with the EU has been poisoned by an unpleasant coalition of Murdoch, Dacre and latterly Farage.
    To be fair, I'm talking about *real* situations in which I had no skin in the game. Albeit they were in the 1990s, so the situation may have changed.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    John_M said:

    Brexit? A mere trifle. A far more serious danger is almost upon us. Apparently The Great British Bake Off is exiting the BBC. The sky is falling!

    Surely Bake Off's transfer to ITV is official government policy as laid down by Culture Secretary and Gove-backer, John Whittingdale?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725
    Overall the Tories lead on 36% with Labour on 30% the LDs on 8% and UKIP on 16%.

    May is preferred as next Tory leader by 43% of voters as a whole, 60% of Tory voters and 46% of Tory members. Gove is second with 8% of all voters, 10% of Tories and 18% of members, Leadsom is third with 8% of all voters, 6% of Tories and 7% of members.

    In terms of the Labour leadership Burnham is preferred as next Labour leader by 12% of all voters and 17% of Labour voters, Benn is second with 11% of all voters and 8% of Labour voters and Umunna is third with 10% of all voters and 13% of Labour voters. Eagle is fifth on 4% with all voters behind Cooper but ahead of McDonnell, Kendall, Jarvis and Smith. With Labour voters she ties with McDonnell on 5%
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1381284/theresa-mays-winning-high-stakes-gamble-as-60-of-tories-say-she-should-be-the-next-pm/
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Indigo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar's cat beats Corbyn by more than a whisker. He purrs to the camera, and is keen to get his claws into tough policy decisions. We should milk his candidacy for all its worth.

    I'm going to ask him his policy position on the EU and the economy this evening. I suspect he will provide far more detail than Boris Johnson even.
    Good luck with that, Mr. Star. I tried asking Thomas what he thought of the result of the referendum and all I got was him walking round in a small circle three times before going back to sleep. He has since indicated his current preference for Tesco's salmon chunks with honey over Waitrose roast chicken; though Icelandic prawns trump both.
    #FirstWorldProblems ;)

    My 12 year old daughter recently took in a stray kitten, which was very small, but after a couple of weeks on milk has suddenly turned into a rather assertive little ball of claws and attitude, on the plus side it now has a taste for the absolute cheapest canned sardines I could find at the local store, going for the princely sum of P13 per tin (about 18p) and a tin lasts for at least two meals.
    That is terrific, Mr. Indigo. Good on young Miss. Indigo. Do not count on the moggie staying content on half a tin of sardines per meal though. Plan for a roast chicken per week, plus prawns, fresh fish and also some cat biscuits and some tinned cat food. I reckon Thomas costs us about £15 a week to feed, plus insurance (another twenty-five quid a week) plus routine vets bills for annual MoT and Jabs (£60 a year). Call it £45 a week all found, and I don't begrudge him a penny of it.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited July 2016

    Jeremy Corbyn has proved he is not someone who can lead a political party. He is a poor communicator, he does not understand or accept the need ever to compromise, he is not collegiate, he is not inspiring, he is not very bright and he gives no indication of having any interest in winning a general election. You can get away with one or two of these traits, but not all of them. My sense is that a growing number of Labour members are beginning to understand this. With time, more will.

    The 3 quid rule is the greatest weakness, it enable crap leaders/candidates to pile in votes on demand which otherwise contribute little or nothing to the party. Is it possible to change the rulebook without asking the members ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BTW .... there was a stunning rumour that Michael Gove was about to take a pause from his launch speech for afternoon tea, however it turns out he's just about to come onto the passage relating to the return, post BREXIT, of decent British curved cucumbers for slicing in the sarnies.

    Developing story ....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    This is an excellent idea. I love the Germans, they really are proving to be our best friends.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/britons-who-voted-to-remain-should-be-offered-german-citizenship/

    Would sort tyson out as well, so doubleplus good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    F1: just having a glance at Twitter, Raikkonen's cited the yellow flags as the reason he didn't overtake despite being close enough (which is credible).

    https://twitter.com/DavideLiberista/status/749604582670622720

    It'll be contentious if Hamilton is penalised, and if he isn't.

    Putting aside pecuniary advantage, I'd want to see video of what happened. I suspect he may be penalised for causing a collision by seeking to overtake in a yellow flag zone. The overtook he ended up making in a yellow flag zone, I would guess, will be considered acceptable as Rosberg's car was wounded and you can't expected Hamilton to just stop.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    Ant Davidson's view on the yellow flag was that as Rosberg's car was clearly damaged and slowing down, then there was nothing wrong with Hamilton making the pass.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.

    Every dog has his day .... woof woof .... :smile:

    Meanwhile ....

    News reaches me that Charlie Falconer has decided to resign once Michael Gove finishes his launch speech or whenever malcolmg praises the Scottish Tories, whichever is the sooner ....

    Tricky call ....
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar's cat beats Corbyn by more than a whisker. He purrs to the camera, and is keen to get his claws into tough policy decisions. We should milk his candidacy for all its worth.

    I'm going to ask him his policy position on the EU and the economy this evening. I suspect he will provide far more detail than Boris Johnson even.
    Good luck with that, Mr. Star. I tried asking Thomas what he thought of the result of the referendum and all I got was him walking round in a small circle three times before going back to sleep. He has since indicated his current preference for Tesco's salmon chunks with honey over Waitrose roast chicken; though Icelandic prawns trump both.
    #FirstWorldProblems ;)

    My 12 year old daughter recently took in a stray kitten, which was very small, but after a couple of weeks on milk has suddenly turned into a rather assertive little ball of claws and attitude, on the plus side it now has a taste for the absolute cheapest canned sardines I could find at the local store, going for the princely sum of P13 per tin (about 18p) and a tin lasts for at least two meals.
    That is terrific, Mr. Indigo. Good on young Miss. Indigo. Do not count on the moggie staying content on half a tin of sardines per meal though. Plan for a roast chicken per week, plus prawns, fresh fish and also some cat biscuits and some tinned cat food. I reckon Thomas costs us about £15 a week to feed, plus insurance (another twenty-five quid a week) plus routine vets bills for annual MoT and Jabs (£60 a year). Call it £45 a week all found, and I don't begrudge him a penny of it.
    Although I think there is some room for manoeuvre there, some fresh fish (what with us living 50 yards from the sea) or chicken not being entirely out of the question, a certain amount of decorum probably should be observed since I am currently being made welcome in a relatively poor village, who may be rather less impressed if our recently taken in moggie eats better than they do!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    HYUFD said:

    Overall the Tories lead on 36% with Labour on 30% the LDs on 8% and UKIP on 16%.

    May is preferred as next Tory leader by 43% of voters as a whole, 60% of Tory voters and 46% of Tory members. Gove is second with 8% of all voters, 10% of Tories and 18% of members, Leadsom is third with 8% of all voters, 6% of Tories and 7% of members.

    In terms of the Labour leadership Burnham is preferred as next Labour leader by 12% of all voters and 17% of Labour voters, Benn is second with 11% of all voters and 8% of Labour voters and Umunna is third with 10% of all voters and 13% of Labour voters. Eagle is fifth on 4% with all voters behind Cooper but ahead of McDonnell, Kendall, Jarvis and Smith. With Labour voters she ties with McDonnell on 5%
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1381284/theresa-mays-winning-high-stakes-gamble-as-60-of-tories-say-she-should-be-the-next-pm/

    The Sun wouldn't know a Labour voter if theywalked into 1 London Bridge Street with an I love Labour and dont buy The Sun T Shirt on TBF

    Gloria and Danczuk are the closest The Sun gets
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725
    Gravis US General election national

    Clinton 50 Trump 48
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_National_June_27_to_28_2016.pdf
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Indigo said:

    John_N4 said:

    If someone had actually thought of spending some money since 1973 on encouraging British people to think of the EU as "us", as many French and German people do, there wouldn't be this trouble now. Even now much of the political discourse in this benighted country contains such thoughts as Britain must "demand" access to the single market, etc.

    Erm no. Spending public money on telling the British people how they should think is a disgrace. We rightly lambast the EU for pouring money (our money) into British institutions with attached conditions concerning how they should think and how they should only say nice things about the EU, we should apply no lesser standard to our government. Do they do it, yes, should they do it, no!
    I used to get slightly peeved (not annoyed) by signs saying things like "this project brought to you by EU funding", usually with the EU flag. Especially when a similar project just a mile or two away failed because they were in an apparently in a geographically richer area. When anyone with local knowledge knew that was not the case.

    It makes the lottery's funding choices seem sane.
    And the funding is simply recycled British money; the difference between our gross and net EU contribution.
    Yes. Although it was not necessarily the funding that peeved me: it was the fact that decisions were being made according to some regional differentiatior and not the real situation on the ground. Basically, I doubt whoever signed off the decision had ever seen the villages concerned.

    And to be fair that same mistake could be made from central UK government as wel.
    But at least we could hold the UK government to account for its mistakes.
    Indeed. Twenty years ago I knew a fair few people annoyed by just such a decision. They had the impression that no-one from the EU or the local MEP had seen the local situation, and were instead making decisions on broad regional figures alone. And I daresay we can all think of areas where rich and poor intermingle at fairly close proximity.

    Perhaps (and only perhaps) if the local MEP and a representative from the relevant EU department had turned up in the media to look at the relevant projects before the decision it *may* have made a difference. The locals may have felt they were listened to.

    Perhaps the EU has lost the UK by appearing detached. Signs saying 'funded by the EU' are just a tiny part of what is required. It's lazy.
    And, in my opinion, another reason why regional MEPs doesn't (didn't!) provide proper accountability.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725

    HYUFD said:

    Overall the Tories lead on 36% with Labour on 30% the LDs on 8% and UKIP on 16%.

    May is preferred as next Tory leader by 43% of voters as a whole, 60% of Tory voters and 46% of Tory members. Gove is second with 8% of all voters, 10% of Tories and 18% of members, Leadsom is third with 8% of all voters, 6% of Tories and 7% of members.

    In terms of the Labour leadership Burnham is preferred as next Labour leader by 12% of all voters and 17% of Labour voters, Benn is second with 11% of all voters and 8% of Labour voters and Umunna is third with 10% of all voters and 13% of Labour voters. Eagle is fifth on 4% with all voters behind Cooper but ahead of McDonnell, Kendall, Jarvis and Smith. With Labour voters she ties with McDonnell on 5%
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1381284/theresa-mays-winning-high-stakes-gamble-as-60-of-tories-say-she-should-be-the-next-pm/

    The Sun wouldn't know a Labour voter if theywalked into 1 London Bridge Street with an I love Labour and dont buy The Sun T Shirt on TBF

    Gloria and Danczuk are the closest The Sun gets
    It was ICM who did the poll not the Sun, the Sun was just their client and may I remind you ICM was one of the few pollsters who predicted Leave would win EUref
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. 86, when the overtake occurred, that's my view (I think, not seen a full, proper replay). However, the collision occurred due to an overtaking attempt in a yellow flag area (even accepting Rosberg had blame for the contact, the preceding condition was Hamilton attempting an illegal overtake).
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    Indigo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar's cat beats Corbyn by more than a whisker. He purrs to the camera, and is keen to get his claws into tough policy decisions. We should milk his candidacy for all its worth.

    I'm going to ask him his policy position on the EU and the economy this evening. I suspect he will provide far more detail than Boris Johnson even.
    Good luck with that, Mr. Star. I tried asking Thomas what he thought of the result of the referendum and all I got was him walking round in a small circle three times before going back to sleep. He has since indicated his current preference for Tesco's salmon chunks with honey over Waitrose roast chicken; though Icelandic prawns trump both.
    #FirstWorldProblems ;)

    My 12 year old daughter recently took in a stray kitten, which was very small, but after a couple of weeks on milk has suddenly turned into a rather assertive little ball of claws and attitude, on the plus side it now has a taste for the absolute cheapest canned sardines I could find at the local store, going for the princely sum of P13 per tin (about 18p) and a tin lasts for at least two meals.
    That is terrific, Mr. Indigo. Good on young Miss. Indigo. Do not count on the moggie staying content on half a tin of sardines per meal though. Plan for a roast chicken per week, plus prawns, fresh fish and also some cat biscuits and some tinned cat food. I reckon Thomas costs us about £15 a week to feed, plus insurance (another twenty-five quid a week) plus routine vets bills for annual MoT and Jabs (£60 a year). Call it £45 a week all found, and I don't begrudge him a penny of it.
    I make little Trotsky fresh food... skinned chicken, beef, courgettes, carrots, greens and brown rice, an omega 3. It costs like 10 Euros per fortnight, and takes an hour or so to prepare and then freeze. Her breath is fresh all the time, energy levels high, coat fine, gums pink and all that. She's getting on for 9 and people cannot believe she isn't a puppy.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2016

    Jeremy Corbyn has proved he is not someone who can lead a political party. He is a poor communicator, he does not understand or accept the need ever to compromise, he is not collegiate, he is not inspiring, he is not very bright and he gives no indication of having any interest in winning a general election. You can get away with one or two of these traits, but not all of them. My sense is that a growing number of Labour members are beginning to understand this. With time, more will.

    I agree. A week ago we had mass shadow cabinet resignations. These were people quite willing to serve under a fairly left wing set of policies. Many others had stayed out, at least in part because of the agenda. For Corbyn to lose all these colleagues is not because of the policies, it must be because of the sort of issues you outline in regard to competence and style.

    Corbyn is unpersuadable, and a very poor listener. He can never broker a compromise on any issue as he is not interested in having one. He prefers splendid isolation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    What, with elections and everything?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    edited July 2016

    Mr. 86, when the overtake occurred, that's my view (I think, not seen a full, proper replay). However, the collision occurred due to an overtaking attempt in a yellow flag area (even accepting Rosberg had blame for the contact, the preceding condition was Hamilton attempting an illegal overtake).

    I don't think so. Hamilton's move on Rosberg was at Turn 2. The yellow flag was on the run down to turn 3 after they had collided and Hamilton passed the ailing Rosberg. A penalty for Hamilton would be very harsh.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The Sun wouldn't know a Labour voter if theywalked into 1 London Bridge Street with an I love Labour and dont buy The Sun T Shirt on TBF

    Gloria and Danczuk are the closest The Sun gets

    ICM polled not the "Sun".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    yes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. 86, my post at 4.26pm includes a Twitter link suggesting yellows were there as well.

    Anyway, the stewards will have full access to that sort of coverage and be able to see things more clearly. If it was a yellow area, Hamilton should be penalised.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JackW said:

    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.

    Every dog has his day .... woof woof .... :smile:

    Meanwhile ....

    News reaches me that Charlie Falconer has decided to resign once Michael Gove finishes his launch speech or whenever malcolmg praises the Scottish Tories, whichever is the sooner ....

    Tricky call ....
    By the way what is this meme about Charlie? I've been too busy to follow all the news
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    MTimT said:

    On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.

    'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf

    Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
    (page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)

    This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion

    For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."

    To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.

    EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.

    I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.

    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713

    tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
    The next time the Germans roll through Luxemburg and Belgium, why dont we just let them keep them
  • On topic: I don't think Corbyn and the hard left give any impression at all of 'prioritising solidarity with people in difficulty'. At least not if they're English. They do give every impression of being an Islington polenta munching conspiracy against the non-PC English poor. This alone explains the party's difficulties. Corbyn needs to find something to say to a low wage, white, poorly educated man in Kettering.

    (p.s. the pedant in me thinks the threader title should say 'Labour Ex-MP' rather than 'Ex-LAB MP'. You're still Labour aren't you Nick? And no longer an MP?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited July 2016

    Jeremy Corbyn has proved he is not someone who can lead a political party. He is a poor communicator, he does not understand or accept the need ever to compromise, he is not collegiate, he is not inspiring, he is not very bright and he gives no indication of having any interest in winning a general election. You can get away with one or two of these traits, but not all of them. My sense is that a growing number of Labour members are beginning to understand this. With time, more will.

    I agree. A week ago we had mass shadow cabinet resignations. These were people quite willing to serve under a fairly left wing set of policies. Many others had stayed out, at least in part because of the agenda. For Corbyn to lose all these colleagues is not because of the policies, it must be because of the sort of issues you outline in regard to competence and style.

    Corbyn is unpersuadable, and a very poor listener. He can never broker a compromise on any issue as he is not interested in having one. He prefers splendid isolation.
    I'll let you have the contents of a private email I wrote to a friend about Corbyn which kind of sums up your point.... First and foremost the problem with Corbyn is fundamentally a problem of leadership rather than policy...which is why the Labour PLP should NOT STFU




    "Leadership matters though. Those MP’s see Corbyn everyday, they see his indecision, his ability only to speak to his clique, they see his lacklustre performances in the commons, his shambolic manner, his repetition of the same phrases and inability to articulate his ideas into any kind of meaningful policy, his lack of strategic intelligence, his indecision and dithering, his lack of charisma, his monotone, uninspiring and insipid delivery…..I could go on. But, even if the whole Parliamentary Party rallied behind him, Corbyn’s personal failings will be cruelly exploited by the Tories and the right wing press to Labour’s electoral cost.

    I have lost it with Corbyn myself because of Europe. Maybe, a more compelling campaigner for Europe wouldn’t have made a difference. I actually think Corbyn did try, but we got a closer insight into his campaigning style which doesn’t bode well. To me losing Europe is far more important than party politics. Elisabetta is back in England at the moment, and is suffering from a profound sense of alienation. Brexit for us is far worse than any election outcome….

    McDonnell is Labour’s best chance of coming through this crisis. He is much more in the mould of a Harold Wilson, a political operator, who would have a better understanding of holding the party together. Clive Lewis is extremely charismatic, and could carry the centre of the party by being viewed as a winner. The left have to look beyond Corbyn, and if they manage to keep him, it will only provide a pyrrhic victory."
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/ruth-davidson-next-pm-should-not-block-scottish-independence-ref/

    Interesting. Our new PM is going to have plenty of chainsaws to juggle.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.

    Every dog has his day .... woof woof .... :smile:

    Meanwhile ....

    News reaches me that Charlie Falconer has decided to resign once Michael Gove finishes his launch speech or whenever malcolmg praises the Scottish Tories, whichever is the sooner ....

    Tricky call ....
    By the way what is this meme about Charlie? I've been too busy to follow all the news
    We are awaiting news of his resignation. Long overdue...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Lowlander said:

    MTimT said:

    On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.

    'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf

    Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
    (page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)

    This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion

    For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."

    To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.

    EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.

    I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.

    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017
    I thought Scotland was a net beneficiary thanks to Barnet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725
    JackW said:

    The Sun wouldn't know a Labour voter if theywalked into 1 London Bridge Street with an I love Labour and dont buy The Sun T Shirt on TBF

    Gloria and Danczuk are the closest The Sun gets

    ICM polled not the "Sun".
    Exactly
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    F1: incidentally, it seems Hamilton's under investigation for causing a collision, but no mention of yellow flags. If that's the case, I imagine he'll receive no penalty, alas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
    The next time the Germans roll through Luxemburg and Belgium, why dont we just let them keep them
    The worst type of quack doctors. Whatever ailments the patient suffers from, the prescription is always the same: take even more of the EU Snake Oil...
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:

    John_N4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    You talk about spending money - I thought all the money we sent to Brussels was supposed to make us feel more European and part of the 'us' you described. That worked well, didn't it!

    No it didn't, which was a problem that should have been addressed.

    And a similar point can be made about Scotland. Money should be spent on building cultural friendship.

    I don't see how that's practical with a contributor country. I don't feel particularly warm and fuzzy about HMRC when they occasionally give me some of my money back.

    Maybe it's me, but I just don't identify as European. I've spent plenty of time in Europe, for both business and pleasure. I've European friends and ran a European team. I love France as a second home, though my French is still terrible.

    Still, I feel resolutely English, then British, then human. European? It's an extra level of indirection that I don't need. Maybe it's my love of history; I recognise a shared Judeo-Christian, Graeco-Roman heritage and that's enough.
    I do feel European but that gave me no hesitation voting for Leave. I don't think cultural commonalities are a sufficient reason to desire shared government and political union. Nor do I feel like the European aspect of my cultural identity is in any way diminished by Brexit. The Brussels-Strasbourg commute in no form represents the best aspects of what Europe has to offer the world.


    I have always felt in the minority for identifying as European though - amongst Brits that is generally not a strong inclination.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304

    Mr. 86, my post at 4.26pm includes a Twitter link suggesting yellows were there as well.

    Anyway, the stewards will have full access to that sort of coverage and be able to see things more clearly. If it was a yellow area, Hamilton should be penalised.

    The yellows were out at the time of the overtake as indicated by the yellow bar graphics. But I doubt there were waved yellows on the approach to turn 2 given the incident was at turn 3.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    MTimT said:

    On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.

    'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf

    Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
    (page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)

    This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion

    For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."

    To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.

    EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.

    I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.

    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017
    I thought Scotland was a net beneficiary thanks to Barnet?
    Nathematics ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.

    Every dog has his day .... woof woof .... :smile:

    Meanwhile ....

    News reaches me that Charlie Falconer has decided to resign once Michael Gove finishes his launch speech or whenever malcolmg praises the Scottish Tories, whichever is the sooner ....

    Tricky call ....
    By the way what is this meme about Charlie? I've been too busy to follow all the news
    The shock news is ..... Charlie Falconer is ....

    Well .... he is ....

    Er .... Possibly .... Preparing .... I mean composing .... just a thought ....

    You know .... whisper it ....

    Somewhere .... thinking about ....

    the end ....

    of Gove's speech .... as the precursor to his own speech ....

    on the topic of ....

    Sorry .... I've completely lost the thread .... :cry:
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited July 2016
    @Patrick

    'Corbyn needs to find something to say to a low wage, white, poorly educated man in Kettering.'

    Try this - 'You're a bigot, you're a racist, you're a homophobe, you're an Islamophobe, you're a sexist, etc'

    Corbyn and the liberal left London elite have PLENTY to say to the people you describe.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    JackW said:

    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.

    Every dog has his day .... woof woof .... :smile:

    Meanwhile ....

    News reaches me that Charlie Falconer has decided to resign once Michael Gove finishes his launch speech or whenever malcolmg praises the Scottish Tories, whichever is the sooner ....

    Tricky call ....
    By the way what is this meme about Charlie? I've been too busy to follow all the news
    The shock news is ..... Charlie Falconer is ....

    Well .... he is ....

    Er .... Possibly .... Preparing .... I mean composing .... just a thought ....

    You know .... whisper it ....

    Somewhere .... thinking about ....

    the end ....

    of Gove's speech .... as the precursor to his own speech ....

    on the topic of ....

    Sorry .... I've completely lost the thread .... :cry:
    Has he resigned yet?
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:


    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017

    I thought Scotland was a net beneficiary thanks to Barnet?
    I'm deliberately only counting spending savings.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,993
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Brexit? A mere trifle. A far more serious danger is almost upon us. Apparently The Great British Bake Off is exiting the BBC. The sky is falling!

    Surely Bake Off's transfer to ITV is official government policy as laid down by Culture Secretary and Gove-backer, John Whittingdale?
    Whiitingdale just saved the BBC for at least a decade by changing the rules wrt watching via the Internet and iPlayer.

    Perhaps some thanks should be in order, rather than the stupidity you wrote.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    murali_s said:

    Has he resigned yet?

    Er .... not sure .... what have you heard ??
  • tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
    The next time the Germans roll through Luxemburg and Belgium, why dont we just let them keep them
    The worst type of quack doctors. Whatever ailments the patient suffers from, the prescription is always the same: take even more of the EU Snake Oil...
    What do REMAINIACS have to say.....?
    "The President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz calls for the conversion of the European Commission to "a real European Government" ........... In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Monday Edition), Schulz writes, this EU Government should be 'Subjected to the parliamentary scrutiny of the European Parliament and a second Chamber, consisting of representatives of the Member States'. This was known to the people of their nation States and become "political responsibility at the EU level make more transparent"."
    EU "ueber allen"?

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    JackW said:

    murali_s said:

    Has he resigned yet?

    Er .... not sure .... what have you heard ??
    I've heard that he's a right Charlie...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    JackW said:

    murali_s said:

    Has he resigned yet?

    Er .... not sure .... what have you heard ??
    I don't quite get the Charlie Falconer stuff? Didn't he resign last Sunday?

    On betting- I think Raonic at 10's on betfair is good value. He has a relatively easy passage to the semis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725
    Patrick said:

    On topic: I don't think Corbyn and the hard left give any impression at all of 'prioritising solidarity with people in difficulty'. At least not if they're English. They do give every impression of being an Islington polenta munching conspiracy against the non-PC English poor. This alone explains the party's difficulties. Corbyn needs to find something to say to a low wage, white, poorly educated man in Kettering.

    (p.s. the pedant in me thinks the threader title should say 'Labour Ex-MP' rather than 'Ex-LAB MP'. You're still Labour aren't you Nick? And no longer an MP?

    I think that demographic is now as hopeless for Labour as it is for the Democrats in the US. If Labour get back into power again it will be through a coalition of left-liberals, ethnic minorities and centrist middle-class voters who voted for Blair then switched to Cameron. White working class males will increasingly become as tribal UKIP voters as they used to be Labour voters
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
    The next time the Germans roll through Luxemburg and Belgium, why dont we just let them keep them
    The worst type of quack doctors. Whatever ailments the patient suffers from, the prescription is always the same: take even more of the EU Snake Oil...
    What do REMAINIACS have to say.....?
    "The President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz calls for the conversion of the European Commission to "a real European Government" ........... In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Monday Edition), Schulz writes, this EU Government should be 'Subjected to the parliamentary scrutiny of the European Parliament and a second Chamber, consisting of representatives of the Member States'. This was known to the people of their nation States and become "political responsibility at the EU level make more transparent"."
    EU "ueber allen"?

    He wants the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the Community, he wants the Commission to be the Executive and he wants the Council of Ministers to be the Senate?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    Jeremy Corbyn has proved he is not someone who can lead a political party. He is a poor communicator, he does not understand or accept the need ever to compromise, he is not collegiate, he is not inspiring, he is not very bright and he gives no indication of having any interest in winning a general election. You can get away with one or two of these traits, but not all of them. My sense is that a growing number of Labour members are beginning to understand this. With time, more will.

    It will be very painful for them to accept it though I would have thought. They backed him and they would hate to accept that the 'Blairites' are right.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tyson said:

    I don't quite get the Charlie Falconer stuff? Didn't he resign last Sunday?

    On betting- I think Raonic at 10's on betfair is good value. He has a relatively easy passage to the semis.

    It was a Falconer look-a-like apparently.

    Did you cash out on Federer or hold firm?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161

    tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
    The next time the Germans roll through Luxemburg and Belgium, why dont we just let them keep them
    The worst type of quack doctors. Whatever ailments the patient suffers from, the prescription is always the same: take even more of the EU Snake Oil...
    What do REMAINIACS have to say.....?
    "The President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz calls for the conversion of the European Commission to "a real European Government" ........... In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Monday Edition), Schulz writes, this EU Government should be 'Subjected to the parliamentary scrutiny of the European Parliament and a second Chamber, consisting of representatives of the Member States'. This was known to the people of their nation States and become "political responsibility at the EU level make more transparent"."
    EU "ueber allen"?

    He wants the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the Community, he wants the Commission to be the Executive and he wants the Council of Ministers to be the Senate?
    I have a three word response to this proposal.... :D
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Nick Griffin still thinks that anyone cares what he says?

    Bless.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    I suppose he's happy to get support from anywhere at the moment - Katie H:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-wins-unlikely-supporter-8340362#ICID=sharebar_twitter
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    At least it wasn't Russell Brand or she really would be in trouble ;)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Nick Griffin still thinks that anyone cares what he says?

    Bless.
    Scott seems to care what he thinks....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Leadsom's bid is surely in flames after she was exposed as a europhile. Out of interest were there actually any of Leave's leaders who weren't closet Remainers?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    I have a three word response to this proposal.... :D

    Seems one number and an unnecessary spoken rather than digit response too much.



  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713

    From Welt am Sonntag interview with Wolfgang Schaueble

    Confirms his "out is out" statement was fed to him by Mr Osborne and used at his invitation

    http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article156764432/In-Europa-nicht-so-weitermachen-wie-bisher.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,725

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Leadsom's bid is surely in flames after she was exposed as a europhile. Out of interest were there actually any of Leave's leaders who weren't closet Remainers?
    Tebbit and Bill Cash have endorsed Leadsom this weekend
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited July 2016
    Darren McCaffrey
    NEW: Paul Flynn, 81, appointed Shadow Commons Leader days ago is now ALSO shadow Welsh secretary. #LabourLeadership https://t.co/hXpucEx0VK

    Not entirely sure this was precisely the exciting new young talent in the Shadow Cabinet @JohnMcDonnellMP was referring to on Friday.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    John_M said:

    Brexit? A mere trifle. A far more serious danger is almost upon us. Apparently The Great British Bake Off is exiting the BBC. The sky is falling!

    Surely Bake Off's transfer to ITV is official government policy as laid down by Culture Secretary and Gove-backer, John Whittingdale?
    Whiitingdale just saved the BBC for at least a decade by changing the rules wrt watching via the Internet and iPlayer.

    Perhaps some thanks should be in order, rather than the stupidity you wrote.
    How the BBC will collect £100+ per year from mobile phone users puzzles me, unless they hire GCHQ. It only seems viable in the internet age if it's funded from general taxation, which can't easily be evaded (several countries seem to do this). BBC3 has a Youtube channel; do we now have to buy a licence to watch Youtube?!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Apparently George Osborne has been endorsed by Peter Griffin
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Leadsom's bid is surely in flames after she was exposed as a europhile. Out of interest were there actually any of Leave's leaders who weren't closet Remainers?

    Fox came out of the closet when he resigned from Cabinet ....

    But only even more of a raging and manic OUT man .... :smile:
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Unlike some, I've never seen the EU as some real world analogue of Mordor.

    However, I do think the commission and the parliament have a tin ear. These reports about CETA, calls for a European government and the development of EU armed forces don't fill one with hope for the future of Europe.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    Unlike some, I've never seen the EU as some real world analogue of Mordor.

    However, I do think the commission and the parliament have a tin ear. These reports about CETA, calls for a European government and the development of EU armed forces don't fill one with hope for the future of Europe.

    And pan-EU personal tax reference number...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    France continuing its efforts to create a business friendly climate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/french-socialists-call-off-conference-fearing-violent-protests/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2016
    deleted
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,993

    John_M said:

    Brexit? A mere trifle. A far more serious danger is almost upon us. Apparently The Great British Bake Off is exiting the BBC. The sky is falling!

    Surely Bake Off's transfer to ITV is official government policy as laid down by Culture Secretary and Gove-backer, John Whittingdale?
    Whiitingdale just saved the BBC for at least a decade by changing the rules wrt watching via the Internet and iPlayer.

    Perhaps some thanks should be in order, rather than the stupidity you wrote.
    How the BBC will collect £100+ per year from mobile phone users puzzles me, unless they hire GCHQ. It only seems viable in the internet age if it's funded from general taxation, which can't easily be evaded (several countries seem to do this). BBC3 has a Youtube channel; do we now have to buy a licence to watch Youtube?!
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35708623

    It's a mess, and note I said they saved it for a decade or more, not forever.

    The BBC was formed on the cutting edge of technology (*). It's technology is keeping up somewhat with the cutting edge; it's management and particularly its income stream is not.

    If the BBC was sensible they would have been addressing this for the previous round of negotiations, not this one. Instead they put their fingers in their ears, and have only in the ;ast year or two started talking about the elephant in the room.

    A move to general taxation would drastically alter the relationship between the BBC and the public.

    (*) And has some great techies.
  • Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Apparently George Osborne has been endorsed by Peter Griffin
    Apparently Pasty_Scott has been endorsed by Twitter for endless re-tweeting.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    MTimT said:

    On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.

    'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf

    Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
    (page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)

    This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion

    For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."

    To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.

    EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.

    I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.

    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017
    I thought Scotland was a net beneficiary thanks to Barnet?
    I assumed it was a joke....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/28/are-we-entering-the-twilight-of-the-leadership-of-dave/

    "Finishing behind UKIP, could see the Parliamentary Conservative party revert to their past form which has been described as Papua New Guinea style orgies of cannibalism and chief-killing modus operandi when it comes to their leaders."

    Finishing behind UKIP = Leave winning :trollface::lol:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,993
    More excitement today in Formula E in Battersea Park.
  • Scott_P said:

    Apparently Leadsom has been endorsed by Nick Griffin.

    Leadsom's bid is surely in flames after she was exposed as a europhile. Out of interest were there actually any of Leave's leaders who weren't closet Remainers?
    Does this mean that the referendum on June 23rd 2016 will be won by REMAIN?
    Stark Dawning, give up man you lost, get over it.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    Unlike some, I've never seen the EU as some real world analogue of Mordor.

    However, I do think the commission and the parliament have a tin ear. These reports about CETA, calls for a European government and the development of EU armed forces don't fill one with hope for the future of Europe.

    And pan-EU personal tax reference number...
    Over turning the will of the Swiss people.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Jessop, watched a little of it last year. Have things improved this season?
  • tlg86 said:

    What, with elections and everything?
    How long has he been sat on that? 3 months?

    File under #surprisefuckingsurprise
    The next time the Germans roll through Luxemburg and Belgium, why dont we just let them keep them
    The worst type of quack doctors. Whatever ailments the patient suffers from, the prescription is always the same: take even more of the EU Snake Oil...
    What do REMAINIACS have to say.....?
    "The President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz calls for the conversion of the European Commission to "a real European Government" ........... In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Monday Edition), Schulz writes, this EU Government should be 'Subjected to the parliamentary scrutiny of the European Parliament and a second Chamber, consisting of representatives of the Member States'. This was known to the people of their nation States and become "political responsibility at the EU level make more transparent"."
    EU "ueber allen"?

    He wants the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the Community, he wants the Commission to be the Executive and he wants the Council of Ministers to be the Senate?
    Schulz sings "Tomorrow belongs to me"
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,890
    I've just thought of a line of reasoning that might explain David Miliband's price for next Labour leader. Punters may be betting on the coup failing, Corbyn leading Labour to a severe electoral defeat at the next GE, David Miliband stands for election as an MP at the next GE or beforehand in a by election and is eligible for the leadership election when Corbyn resigns as leader.

    Not implausible but hardly likely.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    HaroldO said:

    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    MTimT said:

    On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.

    'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf

    Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
    (page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)

    This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion

    For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."

    To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.

    EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.

    I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.

    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017
    I thought Scotland was a net beneficiary thanks to Barnet?
    I assumed it was a joke....
    How about a deal with Scotland?
    Yes you can have a second referendum but to make sure that this is an even playing field free of UK Govt bribes, it will mean an end to the Barnet formula win or lose, yes or no. Thus your scottish voters are no longer bribed to vote to stay in the UK. You can then vote to be independent, get the Euro, slash govt spending to meet EU rules and pay their EU charges. Also lose control of fishing to the EU etc etc...
    Seems like a good deal to me. A new Pledge.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    Presumably a pan-European (or pan-World) tax number would simply work in exactly the same way IBAN works for inter-bank transfers. (Did you know that your bank account has a unique EU-reference? Or, more specifically, a unique world reference.)

    So, everyone would have their own country tax code. And then there'd be a two or three digit country code in front of it. We could even use ISO dialling codes.

    My EU tax code would therefore be something like: 44JD223134565. Or, indeed, my unique world tax code.

    I'm struggling with the outrage here, guys.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Patrick said:

    On topic: I don't think Corbyn and the hard left give any impression at all of 'prioritising solidarity with people in difficulty'. At least not if they're English. They do give every impression of being an Islington polenta munching conspiracy against the non-PC English poor. This alone explains the party's difficulties. Corbyn needs to find something to say to a low wage, white, poorly educated man in Kettering.

    (p.s. the pedant in me thinks the threader title should say 'Labour Ex-MP' rather than 'Ex-LAB MP'. You're still Labour aren't you Nick? And no longer an MP?

    The real pedant in me says that you can't be an ex-MP because you don't change your nature on becoming one. Hence when you lose that role you revert to your former status.

    As a result you are a "former MP" not an "ex-MP"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. W, moaning is not the Morris Dancer way.

    When one feels a bit irked, one simply casts one's mind back to a 250/1 winner one recently tipped, and all is well.

    Every dog has his day .... woof woof .... :smile:

    Meanwhile ....

    News reaches me that Charlie Falconer has decided to resign once Michael Gove finishes his launch speech or whenever malcolmg praises the Scottish Tories, whichever is the sooner ....

    Tricky call ....
    By the way what is this meme about Charlie? I've been too busy to follow all the news
    We are awaiting news of his resignation. Long overdue...
    Is that all?

    I'd assumed he'd done something silly like resigned from one of his jobs but not the other ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,993
    edited July 2016

    Mr. Jessop, watched a little of it last year. Have things improved this season?

    It's still not as good as BTCC. But ITV are showing they can broadcast really well, especially with their excellent BTCC coverage. It's a shame that the F1 contract does not give C4 the support races as well.

    On another note, the company Mrs J works for is getting some really good coverage with the pictures of Rosberg's wing under his car. Ahem.

    As an aside, I know F1 used to have a team watching all the official FIA coverage frame-by-frame to record what sponsorship logos are visible, and how much. So a large logo on the rear wing for five seconds would *score* more highly than five seconds of a small logo on the sidepod, or a blurred image of some trackside hoardings. I've no idea if there is a negative value as well if it's during a crash. ;)

    This data is used by FOM and the teams to attract sponsors. "See! The sidepod on our car attracted 15 million views for 2 seconds last year!"

    Does anyone know if other sports (e.g. football) have similar?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelLCrick: Andrea Leadsom has been an MP 6 years; junior minister 2 years. She'd be least politically experienced PM since William Pitt the Younger

    No problem

    She nailed her colours to the mast, then realised the error of her ways and began a journey to idealogical purity.

    What else does a PM need?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Brexit? A mere trifle. A far more serious danger is almost upon us. Apparently The Great British Bake Off is exiting the BBC. The sky is falling!

    Surely Bake Off's transfer to ITV is official government policy as laid down by Culture Secretary and Gove-backer, John Whittingdale?
    Whiitingdale just saved the BBC for at least a decade by changing the rules wrt watching via the Internet and iPlayer.

    Perhaps some thanks should be in order, rather than the stupidity you wrote.
    How the BBC will collect £100+ per year from mobile phone users puzzles me, unless they hire GCHQ. It only seems viable in the internet age if it's funded from general taxation, which can't easily be evaded (several countries seem to do this). BBC3 has a Youtube channel; do we now have to buy a licence to watch Youtube?!
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35708623

    It's a mess, and note I said they saved it for a decade or more, not forever.

    The BBC was formed on the cutting edge of technology (*). It's technology is keeping up somewhat with the cutting edge; it's management and particularly its income stream is not.

    If the BBC was sensible they would have been addressing this for the previous round of negotiations, not this one. Instead they put their fingers in their ears, and have only in the ;ast year or two started talking about the elephant in the room.

    A move to general taxation would drastically alter the relationship between the BBC and the public.

    (*) And has some great techies.
    They are still dreaming. People use iplayer because its free. If iplayer starts to cost, the vast majority of people will move to a less legal free source. Most youngsters these days seem to feel that all content should be free and look aghast if you suggest they pay for it, not sure how they expect the content creator to pay their mortgage but there you go - iplayers loss will be bit torrents gain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Jessop, cheers.

    I'll likely try to follow F1 still when it becomes entirely Sky, but it's possible I'll stop or shift my attention to some other motorsport.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The Labour Parliamentary party should listen to Nick Palmer's words of wisdom
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited July 2016
    Charles said:

    The real pedant in me says that you can't be an ex-MP because you don't change your nature on becoming one. Hence when you lose that role you revert to your former status.

    As a result you are a "former MP" not an "ex-MP"


    Yeah but, "xMP" is quicker to write.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,370

    HaroldO said:

    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    MTimT said:

    On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.

    'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf

    Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
    (page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)

    This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion

    For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."

    EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.

    I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.

    So we're talking about a net contribution óf £10m a week,

    Works well for the strapline.

    Being in the UK costs Scotland £200m a week.

    Being in the EU will cost Scotland £10m a week.

    Let's use the difference to fund our NHS.

    Vote Yes in May 2017
    I thought Scotland was a net beneficiary thanks to Barnet?
    I assumed it was a joke....
    How about a deal with Scotland?
    Yes you can have a second referendum but to make sure that this is an even playing field free of UK Govt bribes, it will mean an end to the Barnet formula win or lose, yes or no. Thus your scottish voters are no longer bribed to vote to stay in the UK. You can then vote to be independent, get the Euro, slash govt spending to meet EU rules and pay their EU charges. Also lose control of fishing to the EU etc etc...
    Seems like a good deal to me. A new Pledge.
    The last time I checked the Scottish Government figures the contribution to the UK was something like minus 15bn a year. I think.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm struggling with the outrage here, guys.

    Because it's the first step towards a pan-EU Inland Revenue service, and pan-EU taxation.
This discussion has been closed.