At times like this I'm always impressed at the self-control of people with Betfair accounts not to make a Twitter account called Bob ICM and post a bunch of numbers.
I’m prepared to be told I’m wrong, but weren’t fish stocks running low BEFORE the CFP took effect? Compare the cod stocks (or lack of them) on the Grand Banks.
Which would be why the two countries outside of the CFP have been able to maintain and restore fishing stocks whilst those inside have not or have done it far more slowly?
I’m grateful for the information, which, from a fairly uneducated viewpooint co-incides with what I ‘felt” ..... fish stocks were in trouble before, but the CFP didn’t help as much as it could have. However, as regards bottom feeders, IIRC Icelandic fishermen don’t normally fish for them, do they? Thought the seabed was unsuitable.
This is mainly missing the point, which is the destruction of the industry largely as a result of a failed regulatory system, and the impossibility of reformation of that failed regulatory system.
The CFP have mandated that a large proportion - probably half or more - of caught fish has had to be thrown back into the sea, dead, because of a failed regulatory regime. That discard alone shows that it failed.
Perhaps fish stocks wouldn't have declined (or stayed at endangered levels) if we had been able to keep what we caught, rather than catching twice as much as we keep, and throwing half back, dead.
Then it has taken 30+ years to even begin to sort the discard problem, and that because of the intervention of a TV Celebrity Chef, and the issue has proven to be beyond the ability of a sclerotic, failed, EU to resolve.
Then the industry has been forcibly decimated repearedly as a result of that failure.
If you bother reading the paper I quoted, you'll see that fishing stocks around the UK had been almost completely decimated before the introduction of the CFP. The CFP has considerably slowed that decline. It has, however, not yet managed to arrest the decline due, primarily, to the refusal of national governments to properly implement the proposals of the scientists involved. What we need is a CFP with more teeth; leaving the CFP can only lead to disaster.
You are still missing the point, though the fish stock of Red Herrings seems to be in rude health.
How does a policy which forces half of the fish catch to be thrown back dead help fish stocks to recover?
If the EU had a chance of working then the CFP would have been fixed by 1990, and we would have recovered stocks by now.
It didn't work. It doesn't work. It prevented recovery (just as is the Euro for teh Eurozone btw). And it is a disaster.
And it caused repeated decimation of the fishing industry.
And the nature of the EU prevented that policy being fixed, because it is simply disfunctional.
Ergo .. Better Off Out.
When we have these discussions here, I often wonder what would be posted on a comparable Spanish or Portuguese (both of wehich have substantial fishing industries) site. Does anyone know. My Spanish isn’t good enough to find out! Do they complain about the CFP as (some) British fishermen do?
And there’s an area where comparison can be made with other industries. Coal and steel for example. Secondly, does anyone know what, if anything, is being done to revive the cod stocks off Newfoundland?
1.42 / 1.26 are perfectly "normal" mid bank rates...
1.4 to the € was painful, very painful.
Not for those of us paid in £s and living in Europe. tghere are many in my part of the world who could be forced to return if the £ fell to 1:1 against the euro or worse. They are invariably old and relatively poor. I hope the NHS is ready.
1:1 would be too low Mr Felix ! But 1:1.4 is too high ;p
1.26 seems "about right" to me, a happy place for both exporters and holidaymakers.
I agree - but it will go a lot lower than 1:1.25 - most forecasters expect at least another 20% fall -and we don't know how long that might last.
Care to link to these forecasts?
I had the overview a couple of weeks ago and it was a 10-12 point fall vs USD and a 7-9 point fall vs EUR.
I'm afraid I don't keep links but I have seen these reports in the Guardian and the Telegraph. Believe me, i have very good reasons for hoping they're wrong!
I think Bernstein was the most bearish at a 25 point drop vs EUR and 33 point drop vs USD, but most came into the ranges I mentioned. Some even think that there will be a medium term rise in the value of sterling vs EUR based on a forced correction to our huge current account (and trade) deficit post-brexit.
The thing is would Brexit be bringing forward a necessary correction or would it overwhelm us given our current precarious state? As the previous article that I linked by AEP pointed out we have a record current account deficit and are keeping our head above water thanks to flightly incoming capital - which could just as quickly fly away.
Whatever comes economically after Brexit is going to happen anyway. Brexit may just bring it forwards. We can't have long term economic policy built on consumer borrowing and importation of goods. It hurts domestic investment, productivity and overall economic growth. Balancing the current account is more important than balancing the fiscal budget IMO.
Whatever happens in the markets and the wider economy after 23rd June and our vote to Brexit will be owned by Leave; good and bad.
Possibly, however, if we remain and the same happens a year from now it will be owned by the the in camp who have basically promised perpetual economic growth on the back of our EU membership. Completely ignoring how badly the EMU crisis blew our economy off course just a few years ago.
It will be owned by the Tory Remainers. Just as Leave will be owned by the Tory Leavers. It'll be fun and games, that's for sure. As ever, Corbyn is the Tory get out of jail free card.
I see that sterling is playing the role of the NHS in winter as people try to talk up a crisis.
Ha - so true. And lots of graphs with questionable Y axis.
It's good to see you people having such fun with an issue that affects the daily lives of thousands of people, mainly pensioners, living abroad. Very tasteful.
You made that choice.
Your sympathy is very moving - I made the choice knowing we were in the EU, factoring that in at a time when there was no meaningful prospect of that status changing - as did many hundreds of thousands of others, far less well buffered than I am.
I could cause carnage on the betting markets, sterling and FTSE 100 right now.
I don't remember this level of frothing during the Scottish referendum, even though a Yes vote would have caused far more disruption and uncertainty. Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact the markets are taking Brexit seriously unlike Scottish Independence which always looked a long shot.
Michael Savage Wow: Andrew Tyrie says Vote Leave's '£350m for NHS' claim as damaging to trust as "Blair’s false prospectus on Iraq" https://t.co/OufZbBams4
I could cause carnage on the betting markets, sterling and FTSE 100 right now.
I don't remember this level of frothing during the Scottish referendum, even though a Yes vote would have caused far more disruption and uncertainty. Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact the markets are taking Brexit seriously unlike Scottish Independence which always looked a long shot.
Without wanting to upset the Scots, Scottish Independence won't have much impact on the world, Brexit would.
Scottish Independence would have meant rump UK would still be in the single market
@TSE I hadn't realised that Florida was in the EU.
Yup, there is that. won't stop some Leavers trying to weaponise Orlando.
They don't have to do anything.
The fact is that a Muslim nutter murdered innocent people who believe in western values. If you think that helps play into Remain's position, you're welcome.
I don't think that a homegrown terrorist plays into the hands of either group. Free movement of people across the EU has nothing to do with terrorism in the US commited by a US citizen.
From the BBC website - "Worries about the economic impact of leaving the EU were also blamed for a big fall in Asian stock markets. Japan's Nikkei index closed 3.5% down, while Hong Kong's main index slid 2.5%.
Seriously? >3.5% of the value of Japanese assets is dependent on whether an island the other side of the world is part of a free trading zone that Japan doesn't even have a free trade agreement with?
I don't understand the world of finance (although recently I've been doing technology-related consulting in it, and it seems to consist of the smartest people I've ever met doing the stupidest shit you can imagine) but I can confirm that the Japanese press are also blaming the drop on fear of Brexit. Apparently this is making the yen go up, which in turn makes Japanese companies worth less in real terms, and worth even more less in yen.
Thanks Edmund. Interesting view. If the commentators are right, you would think the corollary of Yen up -> Nikkei drops & companies worth less would be £ down -> FTSE rises & UK companies worth more, which sounds good for pensioners and UK business to me... Guess we'll see on the 24th!
I could cause carnage on the betting markets, sterling and FTSE 100 right now.
I don't remember this level of frothing during the Scottish referendum, even though a Yes vote would have caused far more disruption and uncertainty. Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact the markets are taking Brexit seriously unlike Scottish Independence which always looked a long shot.
The implications of Brexit go way beyond the UK. I imagine that's the big difference.
I could cause carnage on the betting markets, sterling and FTSE 100 right now.
I don't remember this level of frothing during the Scottish referendum, even though a Yes vote would have caused far more disruption and uncertainty. Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact the markets are taking Brexit seriously unlike Scottish Independence which always looked a long shot.
The implications of Brexit go way beyond the UK. I imagine that's the big difference.
I see little Owen had a mega melt down on the Sky paper review and stormed off set. Whether he be right or wrong why can't the left ever accept someone else may have an opinion other than their own.
Miss Plato, that was my reaction to Tyrie's comment. Not to mention raising Blair gives Leave the rather easy opportunity to point out he supports Remain.
The thing is would Brexit be bringing forward a necessary correction or would it overwhelm us given our current precarious state? As the previous article that I linked by AEP pointed out we have a record current account deficit and are keeping our head above water thanks to flightly incoming capital - which could just as quickly fly away.
Whatever comes economically after Brexit is going to happen anyway. Brexit may just bring it forwards. We can't have long term economic policy built on consumer borrowing and importation of goods. It hurts domestic investment, productivity and overall economic growth. Balancing the current account is more important than balancing the fiscal budget IMO.
Whatever happens in the markets and the wider economy after 23rd June and our vote to Brexit will be owned by Leave; good and bad.
Possibly, however, if we remain and the same happens a year from now it will be owned by the the in camp who have basically promised perpetual economic growth on the back of our EU membership. Completely ignoring how badly the EMU crisis blew our economy off course just a few years ago.
It will be owned by the Tory Remainers. Just as Leave will be owned by the Tory Leavers. It'll be fun and games, that's for sure. As ever, Corbyn is the Tory get out of jail free card.
I think you are right but as a Tory I'm not convinced the party will win either way. If Labour edge back to the centre the Leavers on here are going to look very silly very quickly.
Or perhaps because Scottish Government had.a plan for aftermath - in sterling one way or another in Europe one way or another.. The Brexiteers are plan less hence market panic.
Given how concerned they now appear to be, would it not have been wise for the EU leaders to actually take seriously the concerns that British voters have about the direction of travel within the organisation?
I could cause carnage on the betting markets, sterling and FTSE 100 right now.
I don't remember this level of frothing during the Scottish referendum, even though a Yes vote would have caused far more disruption and uncertainty. Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact the markets are taking Brexit seriously unlike Scottish Independence which always looked a long shot.
The implications of Brexit go way beyond the UK. I imagine that's the big difference.
So......where the fcuk was Obama and Co when Cameron was doing his renegotiation? Why wasn't he at the table trying to hammer out a deal that would keep the British people happy?
I could cause carnage on the betting markets, sterling and FTSE 100 right now.
I don't remember this level of frothing during the Scottish referendum, even though a Yes vote would have caused far more disruption and uncertainty. Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact the markets are taking Brexit seriously unlike Scottish Independence which always looked a long shot.
The implications of Brexit go way beyond the UK. I imagine that's the big difference.
Maybe the EU should have been nicer to us.....
Maybe. But damaging the global economy because the EU has not been as kind as we would have liked seems a touch foolish to me.
“So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbours, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”
Michael Savage Wow: Andrew Tyrie says Vote Leave's '£350m for NHS' claim as damaging to trust as "Blair’s false prospectus on Iraq" https://t.co/OufZbBams4
Got to admire Tyrie's skill at passing himself off as 'neutral' up until now.
He's about as neutral as Sir Ian Gilmour would have been, had he still been alive, and kept silent until now with his views prior to 'declaring' today.
I see that sterling is playing the role of the NHS in winter as people try to talk up a crisis.
Ha - so true. And lots of graphs with questionable Y axis.
It's good to see you people having such fun with an issue that affects the daily lives of thousands of people, mainly pensioners, living abroad. Very tasteful.
Surely you would welcome the massive boost that a more competitive exchange rate provides for our exporters, domestic producers competing with foreign imports and the tourist, entertainment and hospitality industries in the UK?
Michael Heseltine, no less, argued vociferously in favour of this when he was campaigning to join the Euro.
@TSE I hadn't realised that Florida was in the EU.
Yup, there is that. won't stop some Leavers trying to weaponise Orlando.
They don't have to do anything.
The fact is that a Muslim nutter murdered innocent people who believe in western values. If you think that helps play into Remain's position, you're welcome.
I don't think that a homegrown terrorist plays into the hands of either group. Free movement of people across the EU has nothing to do with terrorism in the US commited by a US citizen.
Ok come off it.
The fear of terrorism from these loons is one of the biggest memes around right now. Surely I don't have to spell out the obvious?
The sad thing about this vote is that the most likely reaction of the EU won't be to concede the need for democratic reform but to confirm that referendums are dangerous, and should be avoided like the plague in future.
If Leave wins or loses - we've shown how truculent we are.
Makes me proud to be British.
We are the most sceptical peoples in the world so when Cameron says "WW3 and global recession if we leave." People just laugh.
@nunu - Cameron did not use the terms WW3 or global recession. You are either ignorant purposely telling fibs.
“So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbours, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”
I see that sterling is playing the role of the NHS in winter as people try to talk up a crisis.
Ha - so true. And lots of graphs with questionable Y axis.
It's good to see you people having such fun with an issue that affects the daily lives of thousands of people, mainly pensioners, living abroad. Very tasteful.
You made that choice.
Your sympathy is very moving - I made the choice knowing we were in the EU, factoring that in at a time when there was no meaningful prospect of that status changing - as did many hundreds of thousands of others, far less well buffered than I am.
I know - I have obviously met hundreds of people who are here/Spain for exactly those reasons. Many are concerned about the result and some not so much.
But we are all the product of our own choices in life. People generally split between those who whine and those who adapt when circumstances change. Which category do you see yourself in?
“So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbours, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”
1984 George Orwell
I remember years ago Jackie Ashley slagged off Mike and Shadsy for the influence they were having on British politics.
She wasn't impressed that people were looking to the betting markets for analysis instead of her.
The thing is would Brexit be bringing forward a necessary correction or would it overwhelm us given our current precarious state? As the previous article that I linked by AEP pointed out we have a record current account deficit and are keeping our head above water thanks to flightly incoming capital - which could just as quickly fly away.
Whatever comes economically after Brexit is going to happen anyway. Brexit may just bring it forwards. We can't have long term economic policy built on consumer borrowing and importation of goods. It hurts domestic investment, productivity and overall economic growth. Balancing the current account is more important than balancing the fiscal budget IMO.
Whatever happens in the markets and the wider economy after 23rd June and our vote to Brexit will be owned by Leave; good and bad.
Possibly, however, if we remain and the same happens a year from now it will be owned by the the in camp who have basically promised perpetual economic growth on the back of our EU membership. Completely ignoring how badly the EMU crisis blew our economy off course just a few years ago.
It will be owned by the Tory Remainers. Just as Leave will be owned by the Tory Leavers. It'll be fun and games, that's for sure. As ever, Corbyn is the Tory get out of jail free card.
I think you are right but as a Tory I'm not convinced the party will win either way. If Labour edge back to the centre the Leavers on here are going to look very silly very quickly.
If Labour members somehow came to their senses and turned against Corbyn a Remain or Leave vote would probably make little difference. Labour would - at the very least - deny the Tories a majority next time round.
Given how concerned they now appear to be, would it not have been wise for the EU leaders to actually take seriously the concerns that British voters have about the direction of travel within the organisation?
A stitch in time saves nine and all that.
Like Cameron, they probably thought some cosmetic concessions and rhetoric would be enough.
I see that sterling is playing the role of the NHS in winter as people try to talk up a crisis.
Ha - so true. And lots of graphs with questionable Y axis.
It's good to see you people having such fun with an issue that affects the daily lives of thousands of people, mainly pensioners, living abroad. Very tasteful.
Surely, you would welcome the massive boost that a more competitive exchange rate provides for our exporters, domestic producers competing with foreign imports and the tourist, entertainement and hospitality industries in the UK?
Michael Heseltine, no less, argued vociferously in favour of this when he was campaigning to join the Euro.
In my view the most successful economies tend to come with a stable exchange rate. Volatility is no friend of business. I also think devaluation is too easy a route for inefficient businesses - and we have historically always paid the price with higher inflation down the road. That i think is the classic Tory view on these matters.
@TSE I hadn't realised that Florida was in the EU.
Yup, there is that. won't stop some Leavers trying to weaponise Orlando.
They don't have to do anything.
The fact is that a Muslim nutter murdered innocent people who believe in western values. If you think that helps play into Remain's position, you're welcome.
I don't think that a homegrown terrorist plays into the hands of either group. Free movement of people across the EU has nothing to do with terrorism in the US commited by a US citizen.
Ok come off it.
The fear of terrorism from these loons is one of the biggest memes around right now. Surely I don't have to spell out the obvious?
Please do because as someone who is pretty sceptical of the EU, has voted leave already and is highly critical of radical Islam I don't see it.
Being a European IP and tech hub may mean that a few companies are bought up by Google, but that will only encourage other companies to start up and more investors to come in looking for the next big thing. We will all benefit from that. Thanks to free movement, low start-up costs, relatively little bureaucracy and a ready supply of capital London currently has something that most other countries can only dream about, in a sector that will only get more important. This most definitely is not the fishing industry.
+1
There are studies showing that one of the key factors in creating a sustainable hub is a pool of entrepreneurs who have made 9 figure exits and can therefore afford to take bigger risks when they invest in the next wave.
Like many things, successful hubs are difficult to create and maintain and the factors are elusive - if there was an algorithm, we'd all be doing it. In the US, despite many attempts to diversify, San Jose-San Fransisco still dominates, with New York, Boston, Seattle trailing far behind, though still significant.
It's some permutation of a critical mass of talent, an attractive location, good infrastructure and access to both finance (seed, vc, and equity) and business acumen (decent vcs are as much about helping with managing growth as providing money).
Mr. Eagles, the problem with turning to punters instead of political commentators is that the former rely on being right, rather than provoking a response.
Anyway, I'm off for a bit. Hopefully the ICM figures will be up by the time I return.
@TSE I hadn't realised that Florida was in the EU.
Yup, there is that. won't stop some Leavers trying to weaponise Orlando.
They don't have to do anything.
The fact is that a Muslim nutter murdered innocent people who believe in western values. If you think that helps play into Remain's position, you're welcome.
I don't think that a homegrown terrorist plays into the hands of either group. Free movement of people across the EU has nothing to do with terrorism in the US commited by a US citizen.
Ok come off it.
The fear of terrorism from these loons is one of the biggest memes around right now. Surely I don't have to spell out the obvious?
The obvious being that it has nothing to do with the EU, but that some people will use terrorism and murder to pretend that it does.
I don't wish to be heretical, but isn't there a danger of taking a single poll just a little bit too seriously? Even if it is ICM?
Never! If it's a leave lead them remain traitors will all die and if it's a remain lead then leave fruitcakes will all die. Isn't that how it goes on here?
Given how concerned they now appear to be, would it not have been wise for the EU leaders to actually take seriously the concerns that British voters have about the direction of travel within the organisation?
A stitch in time saves nine and all that.
Like Cameron, they probably thought some cosmetic concessions and rhetoric would be enough.
I think both Cameron and the EU completely underestimated the open hostility the public has towards the EU. Even in remain circles the EU is not very popular and most I know are campaigning on a "this far and no further" basis.
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
Good article - more about the merits of the case than is usual for PB, but I guess we've been discussing this for months so useful. If we do vote to Leave, it'll be enthralling to see how the simple clarity of the Leave arguments impacts on the messy reality of actually leaving.
I was wondering what a 'vow' might look like? It couldn't be from the EU - no time as much as anything else - but it would have to be things purely within the UK remit that Cameron / Corbyn / SNP could announce. Assuming (wrongly?) that winning the EU referendum trumps all, I wonder if the three pledges below would be top of the list?
1 - UK Government to oppose Turkish membership, and to legislate to promise referendum on any new member with population greater than x. 2 - Cameron to step down in 2016 whatever the outcome of the referendum. 3 - UK to oppose Investor State Dispute procedures in TTIP and to veto while included.
It strikes me that wouldn't lose too many votes (the suggestions I saw in another thread the other day would lose my vote straight away) but might be significant enough to hit the doubts of the undecided. All going onto Leave's turf, but Remain are pretty much there anyway.
all this about what people are seeing in the postal vote openings is a load of hogwash. Postal votes are being opened every day now as they come in in order to be able to check that they are valid, which is a time-consuming process. But they are all done upside down and there are only two ways to see how someone has voted* - mirrored tables or laying on the floor.
Postal ballots are mixed into the rest of the ballots after the completion of the verification process, i.e. at the point where ballot papers are sorted into the piles depending on how people have voted. At that stage you can get an idea of how postal voting went by comparison to on the day voting - because you have an idea how the on the day voting went from the verification which is done face up.
*It is possible that there is a rogue Returning Officer somewhere who is doing postal votes face up.
Trump: "It's a war. There are thousands of shooters like him already out there, with even worse intentions, with thousands more on the way. The Muslims have to turn them in. If they don't, we'll never get along. Hillary Clinton is almost... a maniac." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd3KR5xcfck
I see that sterling is playing the role of the NHS in winter as people try to talk up a crisis.
Ha - so true. And lots of graphs with questionable Y axis.
It's good to see you people having such fun with an issue that affects the daily lives of thousands of people, mainly pensioners, living abroad. Very tasteful.
You made that choice.
Your sympathy is very moving - I made the choice knowing we were in the EU, factoring that in at a time when there was no meaningful prospect of that status changing - as did many hundreds of thousands of others, far less well buffered than I am.
I know - I have obviously met hundreds of people who are here/Spain for exactly those reasons. Many are concerned about the result and some not so much.
But we are all the product of our own choices in life. People generally split between those who whine and those who adapt when circumstances change. Which category do you see yourself in?
I'm very cautious when it comes to money and have more than a sufficient hedge in Euro savings to ride out a cut in my pension so in this case my concern is more for others not in the same position as myself. My understanding was that Leave's overriding concern was to protect and enhance the position of UK citizens - that includes the vast majority of expats who therefore have a perfect right to state their concerns. I don't call that 'whining' - the fact that you do says it all I'm afraid.
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
I've got some feedback for you on Dewsbury. Looking grim in some parts for Remain, very positive in other parts.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
I don't wish to be heretical, but isn't there a danger of taking a single poll just a little bit too seriously? Even if it is ICM?
Gold standard though n' all that?
Going back to the Gold Standard didn't work out for Churchill.
Seriously though, some of us were overly faithful to ICM and got badly burnt at the general election. They were quite good with the phone polls they did for Oakeshott though!
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
Cameron did say “serried rows of white headstones in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries” as evidence of the “price this country has paid” to ensure peace and order in the continent.
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
Cameron did say “serried rows of white headstones in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries” as evidence of the “price this country has paid” to ensure peace and order in the continent.
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
I've got some feedback for you on Dewsbury. Looking grim in some parts for Remain, very positive in other parts.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
The last time I was in Dewsbury town centre, about 2-3 years ago, it seemed to be about 60% Asian, possibly more.
all this about what people are seeing in the postal vote openings is a load of hogwash. Postal votes are being opened every day now as they come in in order to be able to check that they are valid, which is a time-consuming process. But they are all done upside down and there are only two ways to see how someone has voted* - mirrored tables or laying on the floor.
Postal ballots are mixed into the rest of the ballots after the completion of the verification process, i.e. at the point where ballot papers are sorted into the piles depending on how people have voted. At that stage you can get an idea of how postal voting went by comparison to on the day voting - because you have an idea how the on the day voting went from the verification which is done face up.
*It is possible that there is a rogue Returning Officer somewhere who is doing postal votes face up.
Anecdotally (I've never been to postal vote opening) I've been told that as the ballot papers are upside down, it depends on the thickness of the paper, and the firmness of the X as to whether you can see it from underneath. If the Leavers are as resolute as they claim, perhaps it's 50:50 but it's the Leaver ballots that are so firm and thick they can be seen from underneath, skewing the sample? #hangingchadsterritory
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
I've got some feedback for you on Dewsbury. Looking grim in some parts for Remain, very positive in other parts.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
Well that much was obvious. As someone of Asian descent you should know how badly the EU migration policy plays among Asians. It's discriminatory towards Asian countries where highly skilled family members regularly get rejected for work visas and then they are served coffee in Starbucks by an unskilled EU migrant.
Also, just to add that my cousin just got rejected for a work visa and he's an honours graduate from Pune university in pharmacology. He would walk into any major pharmaceutical company in the and had a highly paid job lined up, but his application was recently rejected.
Yes. He said every time Britain withdraws from Europe there is a war and we have to go back in to sort it out. After naming several wars including WW2, simple arithmetic gets us to 3.
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
I've got some feedback for you on Dewsbury. Looking grim in some parts for Remain, very positive in other parts.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
The last time I was in Dewsbury town centre, about 2-3 years ago, it seemed to be about 60% Asian, possibly more.
Looking at the demographics, Dewsbury is 77% White British and less than 20% Asian.
Yes. He said every time Britain withdraws from Europe there is a war and we have to go back in to sort it out. After naming several wars including WW2, simple arithmetic gets us to 3.
sod it
if the Germans invade Belgium again they can keep it. The Belgians will be happier that way too.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
I don't understand why Asians would be any more in favour of the EU than the average person.
If anything, it's especially detrimental to someone with family based outside the EU, or who has a business that is supplied from outside.
Immigration from places like Pakistan and Bangladesh has been slashed as a repercussion of EU migration.
I would expect immigrants generally to favour Remain, because many of them will have come from politically unstable places (or places that were politically unstable in recent times) and they would fear that political instability would result from a Leave vote. Also, some may fear that they'll be deported in the event of a Leave vote.
My wife is a non-EU immigrant. I was a bit surprised when she said the other day she was thinking of voting Leave on the grounds that the EU was "too much". But fair enough, she isn't European. She doesn't have anything invested in the relationships and squabbles within this continent.
Re Dewsbury: Thanks for the info. Interesting. So the main division is between the posh and the plebs, as in the rest of country.
Unfortunately, that's the sort of division that's worst. Hope post-referendum, it doesn't get even worse.
That's what I'm finding too. I think project fear has worked with the middle classes. I think Leave have helped on that front. 'There'll be a hit, but only short term, so what, FREEDOM'
Dave as the greatest One Nation PM ever will reunite the country after the referendum
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
I've got some feedback for you on Dewsbury. Looking grim in some parts for Remain, very positive in other parts.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
Well that much was obvious. As someone of Asian descent you should know how badly the EU migration policy plays among Asians. It's discriminatory towards Asian countries where highly skilled family members regularly get rejected for work visas and then they are served coffee in Starbucks by an unskilled EU migrant.
Also, just to add that my cousin just got rejected for a work visa and he's an honours graduate from Pune university in pharmacology. He would walk into any major pharmaceutical company in the and had a highly paid job lined up, but his application was recently rejected.
That's the UK government's immigration policy, isn't it?
The sad thing about this vote is that the most likely reaction of the EU won't be to concede the need for democratic reform but to confirm that referendums are dangerous, and should be avoided like the plague in future.
If Leave wins or loses - we've shown how truculent we are.
Makes me proud to be British.
We are the most sceptical peoples in the world so when Cameron says "WW3 and global recession if we leave." People just laugh.
@nunu - Cameron did not use the terms WW3 or global recession. You are either ignorant purposely telling fibs.
I think it is a fair comment that Cameron implied Brexit leads to WW3.
Circa 14:20 in the link below from David Cameron's speech on 9th May at the British Museum: "...Whenever we turn our back on Europe, we've always had to go back in and always at a much high cost. The seried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price that this country has paid to restore peace in Europe. Can we be so sure that peace and security are assured on our continent beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption." (Speech continues mentioning "genocide in Sbrenica", "tanks rolling into Georgia and Ukraine" and stating "Britain has purpose in Europe to avoid future conflict between European countries") https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9ONWGQ-mG4
The word "WWW3" doesn't get explicitly mentioned, but especially with the mentions of the Battle of Britain before this excerpt and the Balkans genocide thereafter, it is implicit that the "go back in always at a much higher cost" = next time will be at a much higher cost than WW2.
Yes. He said every time Britain withdraws from Europe there is a war and we have to go back in to sort it out. After naming several wars including WW2, simple arithmetic gets us to 3.
sod it
if the Germans invade Belgium again they can keep it. The Belgians will be happier that way too.
More serious is the potential repercussions in Northern Ireland. Would British voters support sending in the troops again if there was serious unrest? I'm not sure.
It seems almost every time I watch the BBC news they cover the Remain campaign first and the Leave campaign second in their token daily how the campaign is going report. (It may have been every time, but I can't be certain.)
It's very notable canvassing that middle class people are much readier to be rude to you on the doorstep than WWC. I guess that's because middle class liberals just know that they are right about everything, so why treat an opponent with any respect at all?
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
I've got some feedback for you on Dewsbury. Looking grim in some parts for Remain, very positive in other parts.
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
Well that much was obvious. As someone of Asian descent you should know how badly the EU migration policy plays among Asians. It's discriminatory towards Asian countries where highly skilled family members regularly get rejected for work visas and then they are served coffee in Starbucks by an unskilled EU migrant.
Also, just to add that my cousin just got rejected for a work visa and he's an honours graduate from Pune university in pharmacology. He would walk into any major pharmaceutical company in the and had a highly paid job lined up, but his application was recently rejected.
That's the UK government's immigration policy, isn't it?
Dictated by the inability to block unskilled migration from the EU. As I said earlier I would favour free movement of highly skilled labour to the UK globally rather than free movement unskilled, semi-skilled and highly skilled workers from Europe.
Yes. He said every time Britain withdraws from Europe there is a war and we have to go back in to sort it out. After naming several wars including WW2, simple arithmetic gets us to 3.
sod it
if the Germans invade Belgium again they can keep it. The Belgians will be happier that way too.
More serious is the potential repercussions in Northern Ireland. Would British voters support sending in the troops again if there was serious unrest? I'm not sure.
I'd give them a referendum with consequences. Everyone votes in public (i.e. we know how everyone votes) and in the case of the North voting to unify with the Republic, those who voted to join the Republic lose their British citizenship and rights to benefits and all the rest of it. Those who opted to stay with us will have the option to relocate to Britain.
Yes. He said every time Britain withdraws from Europe there is a war and we have to go back in to sort it out. After naming several wars including WW2, simple arithmetic gets us to 3.
sod it
if the Germans invade Belgium again they can keep it. The Belgians will be happier that way too.
More serious is the potential repercussions in Northern Ireland. Would British voters support sending in the troops again if there was serious unrest? I'm not sure.
Don't ask @Alanbrooke he lives in the West Midlands. Not West Belfast.
Comments
I can't help but like Martin Boon.
Michael Savage
Wow: Andrew Tyrie says Vote Leave's '£350m for NHS' claim as damaging to trust as "Blair’s false prospectus on Iraq" https://t.co/OufZbBams4
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/09/david-cameron-rejects-claims-of-hyperbole-over-brexit-risks
Scottish Independence would have meant rump UK would still be in the single market
Or perhaps because Scottish Government had.a plan for aftermath - in sterling one way or another in Europe one way or another.. The Brexiteers are plan less hence market panic.
Given how concerned they now appear to be, would it not have been wise for the EU leaders to actually take seriously the concerns that British voters have about the direction of travel within the organisation?
A stitch in time saves nine and all that.
So Sadiq Khan won't be following through with his plan to freeze fares, but he will be banning 'immodest' pictures of women from the tube.
“So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbours, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”
1984
George Orwell
He's about as neutral as Sir Ian Gilmour would have been, had he still been alive, and kept silent until now with his views prior to 'declaring' today.
Michael Heseltine, no less, argued vociferously in favour of this when he was campaigning to join the Euro.
*Turning on all the charm I possess at the moment*
The fear of terrorism from these loons is one of the biggest memes around right now. Surely I don't have to spell out the obvious?
But we are all the product of our own choices in life. People generally split between those who whine and those who adapt when circumstances change. Which category do you see yourself in?
She wasn't impressed that people were looking to the betting markets for analysis instead of her.
(Now don't take umbrage fella: that's only a leg pull)
It's some permutation of a critical mass of talent, an attractive location, good infrastructure and access to both finance (seed, vc, and equity) and business acumen (decent vcs are as much about helping with managing growth as providing money).
Mr. Eagles, the problem with turning to punters instead of political commentators is that the former rely on being right, rather than provoking a response.
Anyway, I'm off for a bit. Hopefully the ICM figures will be up by the time I return.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/09/pm-draws-on-history-to-bolster-eu-remain-campaign
Leave 58
Remain 42
only kidding.
"Find me a quote by David Cameron saying Brexit leads to World War III."
Callaghan never said "Crisis? What crisis?" Fat lot of good that did him - it's what he meant. I can give you some other examples too, but you will know them already.
That's Dave's petard, so he may as well give us a wave from the top.
Matbe Osborne shouldn't have set the trend
The bodies aren't even cold.
I was wondering what a 'vow' might look like? It couldn't be from the EU - no time as much as anything else - but it would have to be things purely within the UK remit that Cameron / Corbyn / SNP could announce. Assuming (wrongly?) that winning the EU referendum trumps all, I wonder if the three pledges below would be top of the list?
1 - UK Government to oppose Turkish membership, and to legislate to promise referendum on any new member with population greater than x.
2 - Cameron to step down in 2016 whatever the outcome of the referendum.
3 - UK to oppose Investor State Dispute procedures in TTIP and to veto while included.
It strikes me that wouldn't lose too many votes (the suggestions I saw in another thread the other day would lose my vote straight away) but might be significant enough to hit the doubts of the undecided. All going onto Leave's turf, but Remain are pretty much there anyway.
Postal ballots are mixed into the rest of the ballots after the completion of the verification process, i.e. at the point where ballot papers are sorted into the piles depending on how people have voted. At that stage you can get an idea of how postal voting went by comparison to on the day voting - because you have an idea how the on the day voting went from the verification which is done face up.
*It is possible that there is a rogue Returning Officer somewhere who is doing postal votes face up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd3KR5xcfck
The Asian community aren't as enthusiastic for Remain as you would think.
Is one of those areas, LabourIN are working hard am told.
Seriously though, some of us were overly faithful to ICM and got badly burnt at the general election. They were quite good with the phone polls they did for Oakeshott though!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-to-invoke-war-dead-as-he-makes-case-for-eu-as-guardian-of-peace-a7019701.html
That Number 10 rowed back from its spin doesn't change the intentional message.
Time to log off and do some work.
If anything, it's especially detrimental to someone with family based outside the EU, or who has a business that is supplied from outside.
Immigration from places like Pakistan and Bangladesh has been slashed as a repercussion of EU migration.
Also, just to add that my cousin just got rejected for a work visa and he's an honours graduate from Pune university in pharmacology. He would walk into any major pharmaceutical company in the and had a highly paid job lined up, but his application was recently rejected.
Re Dewsbury: Thanks for the info. Interesting. So the main division is between the posh and the plebs, as in the rest of country.
Unfortunately, that's the sort of division that's worst. Hope post-referendum, it doesn't get even worse.
if the Germans invade Belgium again they can keep it. The Belgians will be happier that way too.
Dave as the greatest One Nation PM ever will reunite the country after the referendum
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/eu-referendum-campaign-diaries-week-3-shy-leavers-emerge-as-do-remain-councillors-as-the-big-decision-approaches.html
Circa 14:20 in the link below from David Cameron's speech on 9th May at the British Museum:
"...Whenever we turn our back on Europe, we've always had to go back in and always at a much high cost. The seried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price that this country has paid to restore peace in Europe. Can we be so sure that peace and security are assured on our continent beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption."
(Speech continues mentioning "genocide in Sbrenica", "tanks rolling into Georgia and Ukraine" and stating "Britain has purpose in Europe to avoid future conflict between European countries") https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9ONWGQ-mG4
The word "WWW3" doesn't get explicitly mentioned, but especially with the mentions of the Battle of Britain before this excerpt and the Balkans genocide thereafter, it is implicit that the "go back in always at a much higher cost" = next time will be at a much higher cost than WW2.
Brazil have failed to qualify from their group for even the quarter- finals of the Copa America.
How are the mighty fallen!
I suspect we can expect a lot more of this over the next ten days as Farage does everything he can to sabotage LEAVE and save his own bacon...