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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some MPs are set to remind the electorate that referendums

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    If Parliament did seek to ignore a Brexit vote,

    Nobody has suggested that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Good luck with that.

    Aside from no Vote Leaver standing for no change on free movement, the EU has made it clear that for an economy the size of the UK, an EEA option is not feasible.
    It's in both sides interests for there to be as little disruption as possible, so I suspect EFTA/EEA would be on the table.
    At least in the short term it would have to be. The interesting thing is how to make it sustainable. You'd need to upgrade the institutional framework of EFTA/EEA so that it became, in effect, the same as Associate Member status of the EU. Perhaps the ultimate effect of an aborted Brexit will be for the EU to gain some new members on an associate basis.
    I think it would be very sensible for the EU to split into:

    Eurozone
    and
    Associate Members

    The Associate Members would be outside CAP, CFP, and the political structures. They would contribute in a small way, but would not receive regional development funds. They would respect the Four Freedoms, but would be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens.

    Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether.
    Robert does not formal acknowledgement of no ever closer union, no banking union, plus the EZ protection constitute de facto "associate membership"?

    What else would you put in and assuming you need the ECJ to opine on Single Market rules?
    No, absolutely not.

    We are still obliged to implement 100% of EU laws, versus the 4% Switzerland does.
    We are still forbidden from unilaterally lowering tariffs or entering trade agreements with the 93% of the world not in the EU. Unlike Switzerland and Norway.
    We are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ while Switzerland and Norway etc are not.

    Why do you think not being a part of a banking union makes up for having our hands tied with 93% of the world's population?
    Why do you think not being part of a huge trading bloc will get us better terms than being part of a huge trading bloc?

    Why do you suppose it is relatively easy for Norway to conclude trade deals?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,266
    On topic, wow at the revelations in this thread. Really awful reading for Remain. What on earth is the point in anyone voting Remain if politicians keep us in regardless of the outcome?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    chestnut said:

    It looks like Remain have chucked in the towel as most comments are about trying to manage the aftermath of defeat.

    The idea that tweaks and manoeuvring will suffice is very reminiscent of Scottish Labour in winter 2014.

    Cameron tries to shore himself up by being surrounded by lefties. Desperate stuff. 16 campaigning days after today.
    Appealing to Guardian readers didn't work before either.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    john_zims said:

    @Roger


    'It is grim and depressing. If people vote for a campaign that is openly, unabashedly xenophobic, and which ranges from campaigning on "foreign criminals" to ther prospect of sex attacks on British women if we stay in the EU, this country will deserve absolutely everything it gets from the economic disaster of Brexit. '


    It is grim and depressing when voters raise concerns about immigration that virtue signalling lefties always play the race card.

    Though a very good post I'm afraid the credit belongs to 'RealBritain' not me
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rkrkrk said:

    No more bloody referendums.

    If it's an out vote we should leave.

    And the government of the day should decide what deal we pursue instead.

    If people don't like the deal negotiated... They can elect a new government who can try to change it.

    This is exactly what is being suggested.

    And it has the "Sovereignty and Democracy" Brexiteers with their panties in an ever tightening wad this morning
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If Parliament did seek to ignore a Brexit vote, I'm pretty sure that UKIP would sweep Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire (less Sheffield), South East London, the West Midlands (outside Birmingham), Cornwall, the South Coast at the subsequent general election.

    My Sean, that is a Bold statement!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Jobabob said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    The single-market Tories are trying to assert at least some control. This is turning into a real caper.

    If leave wins clearly, you'll be able to get the 'single-market tories' into a Reliant Robin.

    I think whatever is agreed, it will likely be put to another referendum.
    Noooooooooooooooooooo! Please no more.
    I seriously doubt that the British public has an appetite for another referendum. Just pointing out that a Leave vote would mean another referendum would likely add 2-3 pts to Remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    On topic, wow at the revelations in this thread. Really awful reading for Remain. What on earth is the point in anyone voting Remain if politicians keep us in regardless of the outcome?

    Nobody has suggested that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Good luck with that.

    Aside from no Vote Leaver standing for no change on free movement, the EU has made it clear that for an economy the size of the UK, an EEA option is not feasible.
    It's in both sides interests for there to be as little disruption as possible, so I suspect EFTA/EEA would be on the table.
    At least in the short term it would have to be. The interesting thing is how to make it sustainable. You'd need to upgrade the institutional framework of EFTA/EEA so that it became, in effect, the same as Associate Member status of the EU. Perhaps the ultimate effect of an aborted Brexit will be for the EU to gain some new members on an associate basis.
    I think it would be very sensible for the EU to split into:

    Eurozone
    and
    Associate Members

    The Associate Members would be outside CAP, CFP, and the political structures. They would contribute in a small way, but would not receive regional development funds. They would respect the Four Freedoms, but would be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens.

    Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether.
    Robert does not formal acknowledgement of no ever closer union, no banking union, plus the EZ protection constitute de facto "associate membership"?

    What else would you put in and assuming you need the ECJ to opine on Single Market rules?
    No, absolutely not.

    We are still obliged to implement 100% of EU laws, versus the 4% Switzerland does.
    We are still forbidden from unilaterally lowering tariffs or entering trade agreements with the 93% of the world not in the EU. Unlike Switzerland and Norway.
    We are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ while Switzerland and Norway etc are not.

    Why do you think not being a part of a banking union makes up for having our hands tied with 93% of the world's population?
    Why do you think not being part of a huge trading bloc will get us better terms than being part of a huge trading bloc?

    Why do you suppose it is relatively easy for Norway to conclude trade deals?
    Because they only have to be concerned about their own interests not those of 27 other countries as well.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Guido is tweeting an ICM I think
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 43% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)
    (via ICM, online / 03 - 05 Jun)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941

    OT (sort of)

    Interesting development this morning. As you might know I have my own Geology/Archaeology business with my wife who is also a geologist.

    So after having had the business for 10 years and just 2 weeks before the EU referendum this morning for the first time ever my wife gets a letter from a company called Iwoca offering EU backed finance for my business. This company says the scheme is backed by the European Investment Bank and supported by the EU and trumpets the fact it has loaned £100 million to 4,500 businesses at low interest rates.

    Am I being rather cynical in wondering why, after 10 years and not a peep from these people we are suddenly getting an offer of an EU loan 2 weeks before the referendum.

    Although the European Investment Bank bills themselves as "The EU Bank", I think they are owned by European governments and not the EU themselves. I also think the shareholder list (although I could be wrong) includes non-EU countries.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Wulfrun_Phil


    'Looking at the detail of the YouGov poll, Remain should be very worried by the age breakdown and what it implies allowing for differential turnout. Overall, Leave has a net lead of 4% out of a sample of 3495, which amounts to 140 people more favouring Leave over Remain. Apply the same methodology to the age breakdown though, and you see a lead for Leave as follows:
    +205 in the 65+
    +138 for the 50-64s
    - 30 for the 25-49s (i.e. Remain ahead)
    - 162 for the 18-24s
    (with +11 difference to +140 given rounding effects)

    So if the 18-24s are stripped out of it, the 4% lead for Leave would grow to about 10%.

    The question is, can the Remain camp rely on the propensity of 18-24s to vote being almost identical to that of 65+s, something that YouGov assume in the absence of any turnout filter.'



    No it can't.


    Bite the Ballot, a group working to engage young people in politics, says that between 23-27 May there were more than 3,800 clicks via its website to a government sign-up page.

    Of that number the group believes just 10 people successfully registered.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    Indeed. But if you think that the British parliament would do anything other than respect the will of the nation as expressed in a referendum then in that event, I expect you to be uncomfortably surprised.

    That is not what is being proposed.

    Also important to note the distinction between Government and Parliament

    Parliament will respect the will of the British people (out of the EU) but there may be a majority in Parliament for EFTA/EEA

    Since that is not on the ballot paper, parliament would not be subverting the will of the British people by implementing that

    And it may be true that the Government would be voted out of office, but I am still not sure it would result in a UKIP majority

    And for those who claim that all of this would be avoided if the Tories had a Brexiteer instead of Cameron, they had IDS. If they had him again, Ed would be PM (or Gordo for that matter)
    There will no doubt be polls at the time to guide MPs and the govt.

    However, given the prominence of immigration as an issue in the EURef campaign, and of the threats of Turks down the road - both of which are clearly related to freedom of movement, which itself is directly related to membership of the Single market - I can't see how a Leave can meaningfully be implemented without breaking with that membership.
    Have you decided how you're going to vote yet? You're about the only person on here who hasn't made their preference known. As a Conservative with possible ambitions it's probably a wise decision.

    (If you have and i've missed it apologies)
    I will be voting Remain. (I thought I'd been fairly clear about that, though only in the comments rather than my lead articles).

    I don't have any ambitions within the Party. I certainly have no desire to return to local government and gave up on my aspiration to be an MP some years ago when I saw the demands of the job. I'm already an Association chairman (which isn't really an office I sought), and wouldn't want to go higher within the voluntary structure.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr P et al,

    I believe that Remain will won.

    But if we were to vote Leave, then to defy the voters by saying "We asked you, the little people, to choose, at great expense, but you got it wrong. Therefore we, the great and the good who know better, will decide for you. So suck it up." A recipe for a Kipper-fest at the next GE, which would be soon.

    If Leave publicise this well enough, it will be worth enough votes to possibly swing the referendum too.

    Remain have all the advantages, but they seem to want to shoot their own foot off.
  • rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    SPML said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. A first post by 'RealBritain' from the end of the last thread.

    RealBritain Posts: 1
    9:16AM

    Roger said:

    » show previous quotes
    "It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day"

    RealBritain

    It is grim and depressing. If people vote for a campaign that is openly, unabashedly xenophobic, and which ranges from campaigning on "foreign criminals" to ther prospect of sex attacks on British women if we stay in the EU, this country will deserve absolutely everything it gets from the economic disaster of Brexit.

    I agree with Roger (and I never thought I would say that) and williamglenn and a few others on this site. Leave winning would be the most depressing election result in my lifetime and the consequences for our country and the population at large don't bear thinking about. On the plus side, I am sure we can make a fortune printing "DON'T BLAME ME...I VOTED REMAIN" merchandise.
    The UK was a successful and prosperous democracy prior to joining the EU, and it will remain a prosperous and successful democracy if it leaves the EU.
    That wasn't how it felt at the time - for a long time the UK was the 'sick man of Europe' condemned to 'irreversible decline'. The simple analysis was 'the Common Market is doing better - lets join that'.

    Of course the 'Common Market' had got nowt to do with what fundamentally transformed the UK's fortunes - a Prime Minister who refused to accept the consensus of 'managed decline'....
    Well quite. The Remainers of back then wouldn't have faced down the Argies either. It'd all be too scary, and risky and hard.

    It's an attitude of mind.
    Could you please list the Remainers who proposed that we should not go to war with Argentina.
    Here are a few.
    "Outside Number 10, junior ministers Tim Raison and Ken Clarke as well as Stephen Dorrell and Chris Patten were also expressing alarm; Dorrell for one saying he would only support the Task Force as a negotiating measure - and advocating a withdrawal if the military Junta in Argentina refused to negotiate."
    - See more at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/thatcher-archive-reveals-deep-divisions-on-the-road-to-falklands-war#sthash.SyqbvL41.dpuf
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Good luck with that.

    Aside from no Vote Leaver standing for no change on free movement, the EU has made it clear that for an economy the size of the UK, an EEA option is not feasible.
    It's in both sides interests for there to be as little disruption as possible, so I suspect EFTA/EEA would be on the table.
    At least in the sbasis.
    I think it would be very sensible for the EU to split into:

    Eurozone
    and
    Associate Members

    The Associate Members would be outside CAP, CFP, and the political structures. They would contribute in a small way, but would not receive regional development funds. They would respect the Four Freedoms, but would be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens.

    Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether.
    Robert does not formal acknowledgement of no ever closer union, no banking union, plus the EZ protection constitute de facto "associate membership"?

    What else would you put in and assuming you need the ECJ to opine on Single Market rules?
    No, absolutely not.

    We are still obliged to implement 100% of EU laws, versus the 4% Switzerland does.
    We are still forbidden from unilaterally lowering tariffs or entering trade agreements with the 93% of the world not in the EU. Unlike Switzerland and Norway.
    We are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ while Switzerland and Norway etc are not.

    Why do you think not being a part of a banking union makes up for having our hands tied with 93% of the world's population?
    Why do you think not being part of a huge trading bloc will get us better terms than being part of a huge trading bloc?

    Why do you suppose it is relatively easy for Norway to conclude trade deals?
    Because they only have to be concerned about their own interests not those of 27 other countries as well.
    Nothing to do with them being a single-product economy? K.
  • On topic, wow at the revelations in this thread. Really awful reading for Remain. What on earth is the point in anyone voting Remain if politicians keep us in regardless of the outcome?

    Nobody is suggesting keeping us in if Leave wins. The discussion is about what the subsequent relationship with the EU might look like.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CD13 said:

    But if we were to vote Leave, then to defy the voters by saying "We asked you, the little people, to choose, at great expense, but you got it wrong. Therefore we, the great and the good who know better, will decide for you. So suck it up."

    Nobody has suggested that
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Indigo said:

    TOPPING said:

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Good luck with that.

    Aside from no Vote Leaver standing for no change on free movement, the EU has made it clear that for an economy the size of the UK, an EEA option is not feasible.
    Do the EU actually get a say in whether we join the EEA or not ?
    No. We are already members and independent signatories to the EEA agreement. The only thing that would stop us being members would be if we left the EU but did not join EFTA as we would then be in breach of the treaty terms.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Can we have a sweepstake?

    First Brexiteer to correctly understand the "Reverse Maastricht" idea and comment upon it, instead of their wilful misinterpretation?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Hi all.
    I have just posted off my postal vote. That's another one for LEAVE. :D
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''If Leave wins, having using migration as its major theme, and freedom of movement is retained by Parliament following a vote, UKIP could have a rather good General Election result. ''

    Indeed Mr Morris and that's why I don't see the above scenario unfolding. Could remain seriously expect the Mark Pritchard tendency to stick with them after a leave victory (especially a clear leave victory)? When the prize of seeing off UKIP for good is before them?

    Even the tory payroll vote would be wondering if the paymaster was about to change. These are politicians, not zealots.

    Many labour politicians are also looking at UKIP second placers.

    There's free movement and there's free movement.

    If there were no in-work benefits available, I think there would be a much smaller flow of immigrants to the UK. If you needed to buy NHS health insurance, then it would be dramatically smaller.
    And schooling, in-work benefits et al. I still don't agree with free movement. I believe in looking after our own first, not parking them whilst EUers frequently beat them in interviews for low-skilled jobs or promotions.

    It's worse than secondary moderns for the bottom rungs.
  • Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 43% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)
    (via ICM, online / 03 - 05 Jun)

    Who at BSIE is going to write the book on what is going on behind the scenes at REMAIN?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Well, quite...

    @PCollinsTimes: If the Leave people get what they want they are then going to find out that it wasn't what they wanted. But they won't ever admit it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    What if the turnout is well under 50%, and the majority for Leave is tiny? My instinct is still to say; that was the result, live with it but as a convinced Remainer I’d be seriously p****d off.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a sweepstake?

    First Brexiteer to correctly understand the "Reverse Maastricht" idea and comment upon it, instead of their wilful misinterpretation?

    It looks from the outside like the top remainers are desperate to keep mass immigration and huge net payments to the EU at all costs.

    But I am happy to be corrected.
  • Scott_P said:

    Can we have a sweepstake?

    First Brexiteer to correctly understand the "Reverse Maastricht" idea and comment upon it, instead of their wilful misinterpretation?

    Sorry, was there a referendum on Maastricht which some MPs went against?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited June 2016

    welshowl said:

    DavidL said:

    If Cameron goes to Brussels after a Leave vote and comes back with an associate membership that allows some restraint on freedom of movement (whilst respecting all existing rights) and continued membership of the Single Market in exchange for a reasonable contribution (ie about half of what we are paying now) I would be genuinely ecstatic.

    My only disappointment would be that he didn't get that in his original negotiations and spare us all this pain.

    100% right. I would back that at once.
    Me too. But he didn't even try, and we have been forced into a "nuclear option" referendum process.

    I didn't want meltdown and Brexit, I wanted a better and more productive relationship with our EU partners. I had rather thought Cameron did too....
    Yes I feel I am being forced to hit the "nuclear button" because I am just being given no real option (see my post down thread on politicians saying they'll do "X" and then just not even attempting or even reversing totally). Yes, there's always going to be compromise and areas of grey, it's real life, but I personally believe now (didn't pre negotiation - silly me) that Dave never remotely considered recommending "Leave", and his counter parties in the negotiation could smell it. He had a gun with no bullets, so they gave him bugger all.

    To add insult to injury he didn't even say "sorry folks, not great but best I could do" , but instead decided to treat us like utter fools and pretend it was great ("I sure would"). You can't fool all the people all the time.

    It's a sad state of affairs, I really only wanted a bit more compromise but we are now in a world of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse being threatened together with the slaughter of the first born if we dare to even think about stepping out of line. Well I won't be bought, or cowed. It will almost certainly cost me personally money short term, but there comes a point where being treated with contempt by those we elect is too much.

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit". But same end result.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    For once I agree with TSE on the summery of this thread. Any MP from any party, but especially the Tory party, would be lambasted and hounded out of office if they tried this method of thwarting the will of the voters.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    What if the turnout is well under 50%, and the majority for Leave is tiny? My instinct is still to say; that was the result, live with it but as a convinced Remainer I’d be seriously p****d off.

    Unlikely to happen, with the way the polls are now, if the turnout is under 50%, Leave wins by a landslide.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    The single-market Tories are trying to assert at least some control. This is turning into a real caper.

    If leave wins clearly, you'll be able to get the 'single-market tories' into a Reliant Robin.

    I think whatever is agreed, it will likely be put to another referendum.

    REMAIN MPs could vote to insist on a UK referendum on any new trade arrangements to try to force remaining in the single market with freedom of movement with the EU.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Remain now deeply reliant on a swing in the polling station to see them through...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,422
    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    No more bloody referendums.

    If it's an out vote we should leave.

    And the government of the day should decide what deal we pursue instead.

    If people don't like the deal negotiated... They can elect a new government who can try to change it.

    This is exactly what is being suggested.

    And it has the "Sovereignty and Democracy" Brexiteers with their panties in an ever tightening wad this morning
    Yes- writing more in response to comments rather than article.
    I would concede that an early general election could be a good idea... to allow the parties to come up with some plans for what they would prioritize in the negotiations. Not sure how that time line works given a potential Tory leadership election also...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    SPML said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. A first post by 'RealBritain' from the end of the last thread.

    RealBritain Posts: 1
    9:16AM

    Roger said:

    » show previous quotes
    "It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day"

    RealBritain

    It is grim and depressing. If people vote for a campaign that is openly, unabashedly xenophobic, and which ranges from campaigning on "foreign criminals" to ther prospect of sex attacks on British women if we stay in the EU, this country will deserve absolutely everything it gets from the economic disaster of Brexit.

    I agree with Roger (and I never thought I would say that) and williamglenn and a few others on this site. Leave winning would be the most depressing election result in my lifetime and the consequences for our country and the population at large don't bear thinking about. On the plus side, I am sure we can make a fortune printing "DON'T BLAME ME...I VOTED REMAIN" merchandise.
    The UK was a successful and prosperous democracy prior to joining the EU, and it will remain a prosperous and successful democracy if it leaves the EU.
    That wasn't how it felt at the time - for a long time the UK was the 'sick man of Europe' condemned to 'irreversible decline'. The simple analysis was 'the Common Market is doing better - lets join that'.

    Of course the 'Common Market' had got nowt to do with what fundamentally transformed the UK's fortunes - a Prime Minister who refused to accept the consensus of 'managed decline'....
    Well quite. The Remainers of back then wouldn't have faced down the Argies either. It'd all be too scary, and risky and hard.

    It's an attitude of mind.
    Could you please list the Remainers who proposed that we should not go to war with Argentina.
    Here are a few.
    "Outside Number 10, junior ministers Tim Raison and Ken Clarke as well as Stephen Dorrell and Chris Patten were also expressing alarm; Dorrell for one saying he would only support the Task Force as a negotiating measure - and advocating a withdrawal if the military Junta in Argentina refused to negotiate."
    - See more at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/thatcher-archive-reveals-deep-divisions-on-the-road-to-falklands-war#sthash.SyqbvL41.dpuf
    Many thanks for your archaeology.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,266
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Good luck with that.

    Aside from no Vote Leaver standing for no change on free movement, the EU has made it clear that for an economy the size of the UK, an EEA option is not feasible.
    It's in both sides interests for there to be as little disruption as possible, so I suspect EFTA/EEA would be on the table.
    At least in the sbasis.
    I think it would be very sensible for the EU to split into:

    Eurozone
    and
    Associate Members

    The Associate Members would be outside CAP, CFP, and the political structures. They would contribute in a small way, but would not receive regional development funds. They would respect the Four Freedoms, but would be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens.

    Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether.
    Robert does not formal acknowledgement of no ever closer union, no banking union, plus the EZ protection constitute de facto "associate membership"?

    What else would you put in and assuming you need the ECJ to opine on Single Market rules?
    No, absolutely not.

    We are still obliged to implement 100% of EU laws, versus the 4% Switzerland does.
    We are still forbidden from unilaterally lowering tariffs or entering trade agreements with the 93% of the world not in the EU. Unlike Switzerland and Norway.
    We are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ while Switzerland and Norway etc are not.

    Why do you think not being a part of a banking union makes up for having our hands tied with 93% of the world's population?
    Why do you think not being part of a huge trading bloc will get us better terms than being part of a huge trading bloc?

    Why do you suppose it is relatively easy for Norway to conclude trade deals?
    Because they only have to be concerned about their own interests not those of 27 other countries as well.
    Nothing to do with them being a single-product economy? K.
    I suppose that also applies to Singapore, Switzerland, India, Chile, Israel, Japan and South Korea, each of whom have got total trade deals worth more than the EU has.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Absolutely right. I am not sure that I would be entirely comfortable as I accept that the vote does seem to be predominantly about immigration and as such a lot of people would feel betrayed (I was planning on doing a thread header on both sides losing by winning).

    But once a Leave vote had been made and Cameron invoked Article 50 then it would be entirely in the hands of the Government and Parliament how that was interpreted.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765

    On topic, wow at the revelations in this thread. Really awful reading for Remain. What on earth is the point in anyone voting Remain if politicians keep us in regardless of the outcome?

    Nobody is suggesting keeping us in if Leave wins. The discussion is about what the subsequent relationship with the EU might look like.
    I think Leave are panicking. As the day of reckoning looms, they're suddenly realising that they need to provide a sensible alternative to EU membership, and they've no idea how. Very soon they're going to be held personally responsible for the state of the nation. It's not a scenario they're familiar with, preferring ordinarily to blame everything else from the sidelines. With luck it should do them some good - taking responsibility for their actions and all that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Project Fear...

    @bbclaurak: Gove now claiming EU schengen (which we re not in) 'actively abets terrorism'
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 43% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)
    (via ICM, online / 03 - 05 Jun)

    Who at BSIE is going to write the book on what is going on behind the scenes at REMAIN?

    Will they see it through Rose tinted glasses?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    Remain now deeply reliant on a swing in the polling station to see them through...

    No. Two and a half weeks of campaigning by which time those making a knee jerk reaction to the immgration figures might have reconsidered
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    taffys said:

    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a sweepstake?

    First Brexiteer to correctly understand the "Reverse Maastricht" idea and comment upon it, instead of their wilful misinterpretation?

    It looks from the outside like the top remainers PB Leavers are desperate to keep mass immigration and huge net payments to the EU at all costs.

    But I am happy to be corrected.
    Happy to amend your post.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Fact on the street #1

    The more that Cameron appears on the same soapbox, hand in hand with Corbynites and the hard left of Labour, flogging REMAIN, the more he is being held in contempt by both Labour and Tory supporters.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    SPML said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. A first post by 'RealBritain' from the end of the last thread.

    RealBritain Posts: 1
    9:16AM

    Roger said:

    » show previous quotes
    "It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day"

    RealBritain

    It is grim and depressing. If people vote for a campaign that is openly, unabashedly xenophobic, and which ranges from campaigning on "foreign criminals" to ther prospect of sex attacks on British women if we stay in the EU, this country will deserve absolutely everything it gets from the economic disaster of Brexit.

    I agree with Roger (and I never thought I would say that) and williamglenn and a few others on this site. Leave winning would be the most depressing election result in my lifetime and the consequences for our country and the population at large don't bear thinking about. On the plus side, I am sure we can make a fortune printing "DON'T BLAME ME...I VOTED REMAIN" merchandise.
    The UK was a successful and prosperous democracy prior to joining the EU, and it will remain a prosperous and successful democracy if it leaves the EU.
    That wasn't how it felt at the time - for a long time the UK was the 'sick man of Europe' condemned to 'irreversible decline'. The simple analysis was 'the Common Market is doing better - lets join that'.

    Of course the 'Common Market' had got nowt to do with what fundamentally transformed the UK's fortunes - a Prime Minister who refused to accept the consensus of 'managed decline'....
    Well quite. The Remainers of back then wouldn't have faced down the Argies either. It'd all be too scary, and risky and hard.

    It's an attitude of mind.
    Could you please list the Remainers who proposed that we should not go to war with Argentina.
    Here are a few.
    "Outside Number 10, junior ministers Tim Raison and Ken Clarke as well as Stephen Dorrell and Chris Patten were also expressing alarm; Dorrell for one saying he would only support the Task Force as a negotiating measure - and advocating a withdrawal if the military Junta in Argentina refused to negotiate."
    - See more at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/thatcher-archive-reveals-deep-divisions-on-the-road-to-falklands-war#sthash.SyqbvL41.dpuf
    Many thanks for your archaeology.
    No problem, I remember that Clarke and Patton were, as usual, wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited June 2016
    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Roger said:

    Remain now deeply reliant on a swing in the polling station to see them through...

    No. Two and a half weeks of campaigning by which time those making a knee jerk reaction to the immgration figures might have reconsidered
    I don't see how the last two and a half weeks are going to be sufficient to create a Remain lead any more than 2 or 3 points.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I think Leave are panicking. As the day of reckoning looms, they're suddenly realising that they need to provide a sensible alternative to EU membership, and they've no idea how.

    It's quite entertaining

    "It's not up to us to decide what happens next, it will be up to our sovereign Parliament"

    "OK, EFTA/EEA is the will of Parliament..."

    BETRAYAL, CALUMNY, Off with their heads !!!!!!!!!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2016
    ICM ..... Wow, this appears to be one way traffic at the moment. Could it be a sign of "shy" LEAVERS coming out of the proverbial woodwork as their preference is seen to be gaining the upper hand?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scott_P said:

    Project Fear...

    @bbclaurak: Gove now claiming EU schengen (which we re not in) 'actively abets terrorism'

    Like it or not, reasonable or not, Leave are going on the attack.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited June 2016

    On topic, wow at the revelations in this thread. Really awful reading for Remain. What on earth is the point in anyone voting Remain if politicians keep us in regardless of the outcome?

    Nobody is suggesting keeping us in if Leave wins. The discussion is about what the subsequent relationship with the EU might look like.
    I think Leave are panicking. As the day of reckoning looms, they're suddenly realising that they need to provide a sensible alternative to EU membership, and they've no idea how. Very soon they're going to be held personally responsible for the state of the nation. It's not a scenario they're familiar with, preferring ordinarily to blame everything else from the sidelines. With luck it should do them some good - taking responsibility for their actions and all that.
    I don't think Leave are panicking. Immigration is a rich seam which they are being wise to exploit.

    The fact that their main proponents don't know what they want post-Leave from one day to the next, nor as we saw with M Gove, when they want to do it, doesn't detract from the main thrust of their argument: Vote Leave, Keep Foreigners Out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941
    PlatoSaid said:



    Here are a few.
    "Outside Number 10, junior ministers Tim Raison and Ken Clarke as well as Stephen Dorrell and Chris Patten were also expressing alarm; Dorrell for one saying he would only support the Task Force as a negotiating measure - and advocating a withdrawal if the military Junta in Argentina refused to negotiate."
    - See more at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/thatcher-archive-reveals-deep-divisions-on-the-road-to-falklands-war#sthash.SyqbvL41.dpuf

    Many thanks for your archaeology.
    But at the same time, I think you'll find a pretty high correlation between Labour Leavers and not supporting the Argentine conflict.

    Personally, and I speak as an Outer, I think it's pretty disgusting to try and claim that all Remainers would just want to hand over the Fawkland Islands to the Argentinians.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    OT (sort of)

    Interesting development this morning. As you might know I have my own Geology/Archaeology business with my wife who is also a geologist.

    So after having had the business for 10 years and just 2 weeks before the EU referendum this morning for the first time ever my wife gets a letter from a company called Iwoca offering EU backed finance for my business. This company says the scheme is backed by the European Investment Bank and supported by the EU and trumpets the fact it has loaned £100 million to 4,500 businesses at low interest rates.

    Am I being rather cynical in wondering why, after 10 years and not a peep from these people we are suddenly getting an offer of an EU loan 2 weeks before the referendum.

    Although the European Investment Bank bills themselves as "The EU Bank", I think they are owned by European governments and not the EU themselves. I also think the shareholder list (although I could be wrong) includes non-EU countries.
    The letter specifically says 'Supported by the EU". And it is interesting timing coming just before the referendum when we have heard not a peep for the last decade. I wonder how many other small businesses are getting the same letter?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 43% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)
    (via ICM, online / 03 - 05 Jun)

    The dam is busting. The great escape is on.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6zwW7iWinrk
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    :lol:

    Perfect.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 43% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)
    (via ICM, online / 03 - 05 Jun)

    LEAVE is definitely winning now.

    On the markets LEAVE has shortened from 4/1 to 2/1 in about three days.

    I think it should be nearer 3/2
    Another 2-3% swing to Leave (that stabilises) and Leave have a genuine shot, IMHO.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    New Hampshire
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    The fact that their main proponents don't know what they want post-Leave from one day to the next, nor as we saw with M Gove, when they want to do it, doesn't detract from the main thrust of their argument: Vote Leave, Keep Foreigners Out.

    "We are Xenophobes, and we don't care..."

    Where are the T-shirts?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.

    Yowser, and loads of last week's sceptical iPlayers won't be bothering again either.

    Awful figures.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Rabbit, polls can change rapidly in a febrile atmosphere. In 2007, a couple of weeks was enough for a 10 point Labour lead to become a 10 point Conservative lead.

    Mr. Urquhart, if it doesn't improve over the series, Evans will surely be tossed overboard. Twitter seemed to like Jenson Button's presenting prowess.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    Scott_P said:

    I think Leave are panicking. As the day of reckoning looms, they're suddenly realising that they need to provide a sensible alternative to EU membership, and they've no idea how.

    It's quite entertaining

    "It's not up to us to decide what happens next, it will be up to our sovereign Parliament"

    "OK, EFTA/EEA is the will of Parliament..."

    BETRAYAL, CALUMNY, Off with their heads !!!!!!!!!
    I suspect that, by the Autumn, Boris will be Leave's new public enemy number one.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    DavidL said:

    If Cameron goes to Brussels after a Leave vote and comes back with an associate membership that allows some restraint on freedom of movement (whilst respecting all existing rights) and continued membership of the Single Market in exchange for a reasonable contribution (ie about half of what we are paying now) I would be genuinely ecstatic.

    My only disappointment would be that he didn't get that in his original negotiations and spare us all this pain.

    100% right. I would back that at once.
    Me too. But he didn't even try, and we have been forced into a "nuclear option" referendum process.

    I didn't want meltdown and Brexit, I wanted a better and more productive relationship with our EU partners. I had rather thought Cameron did too....
    Yes I feel I am being forced to hit the "nuclear button" because I am just being given no real option (see my post down thread on politicians saying they'll do "X" and then just not even attempting or even reversing totally). Yes, there's always going to be compromise and areas of grey, it's real life, but I personally believe now (didn't pre negotiation - silly me) that Dave never remotely considered recommending "Leave", and his counter parties in the negotiation could smell it. He had a gun with no bullets, so they gave him bugger all.

    To add insult to injury he didn't even say "sorry folks, not great but best I could do" , but instead decided to treat us like utter fools and pretend it was great ("I sure would"). You can't fool all the people all the time.

    It's a sad state of affairs, I really only wanted a bit more compromise but we are now in a world of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse being threatened together with the slaughter of the first born if we dare to even think about stepping out of line. Well I won't be bought, or cowed. It will almost certainly cost me personally money short term, but there comes a point where being treated with contempt by those we elect is too much.

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit". But same end result.
    Where will the British Alamo be, welshowl?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TOPPING said:

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    New Hampshire
    Oh well only 1500miles out!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    welshowl said:

    DavidL said:

    If Cameron goes to Brussels after a Leave vote and comes back with an associate membership that allows some restraint on freedom of movement (whilst respecting all existing rights) and continued membership of the Single Market in exchange for a reasonable contribution (ie about half of what we are paying now) I would be genuinely ecstatic.

    My only disappointment would be that he didn't get that in his original negotiations and spare us all this pain.

    100% right. I would back that at once.
    Me too. But he didn't even try, and we have been forced into a "nuclear option" referendum process.

    I didn't want meltdown and Brexit, I wanted a better and more productive relationship with our EU partners. I had rather thought Cameron did too....
    Come on mate, face up. Voting Leave is the only way you're going to get that.

    History and experience shows that serious concessions are only ever made when the hand of the EU is forced.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    Here are a few.
    "Outside Number 10, junior ministers Tim Raison and Ken Clarke as well as Stephen Dorrell and Chris Patten were also expressing alarm; Dorrell for one saying he would only support the Task Force as a negotiating measure - and advocating a withdrawal if the military Junta in Argentina refused to negotiate."
    - See more at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/thatcher-archive-reveals-deep-divisions-on-the-road-to-falklands-war#sthash.SyqbvL41.dpuf

    Many thanks for your archaeology.
    But at the same time, I think you'll find a pretty high correlation between Labour Leavers and not supporting the Argentine conflict.

    Personally, and I speak as an Outer, I think it's pretty disgusting to try and claim that all Remainers would just want to hand over the Fawkland Islands to the Argentinians.
    Indeed, Mr RCS; utter rubbish
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    john_zims said:

    @Wulfrun_Phil


    'Looking at the detail of the YouGov poll, Remain should be very worried by the age breakdown and what it implies allowing for differential turnout. Overall, Leave has a net lead of 4% out of a sample of 3495, which amounts to 140 people more favouring Leave over Remain. Apply the same methodology to the age breakdown though, and you see a lead for Leave as follows:
    +205 in the 65+
    +138 for the 50-64s
    - 30 for the 25-49s (i.e. Remain ahead)
    - 162 for the 18-24s
    (with +11 difference to +140 given rounding effects)

    So if the 18-24s are stripped out of it, the 4% lead for Leave would grow to about 10%.

    The question is, can the Remain camp rely on the propensity of 18-24s to vote being almost identical to that of 65+s, something that YouGov assume in the absence of any turnout filter.'



    No it can't.



    Many 18-24 year old are immigrants.

    Does YouGov check to exclude these from their surveys?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr P,

    "Pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit, the BBC has learned .... The single market guarantees the free movement of goods, people, services and capital."

    If it walks like an 'up yours voters," and swims like an "up yours voters," that's what it will be seen as.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    The government ran a campaign to identify 'A Motto for Britain' - and the nation of Boaty McBoatface rose magnificently to the challenge:

    'No Mottoes, Please, we're British'

    And my favourite:

    Dipso
    Fatso
    Asbo
    Tesco
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. P, that's unfair. I'm likely to vote Leave, and fully acknowledge the importance of Xenophon's writings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941

    john_zims said:

    @Wulfrun_Phil


    'Looking at the detail of the YouGov poll, Remain should be very worried by the age breakdown and what it implies allowing for differential turnout. Overall, Leave has a net lead of 4% out of a sample of 3495, which amounts to 140 people more favouring Leave over Remain. Apply the same methodology to the age breakdown though, and you see a lead for Leave as follows:
    +205 in the 65+
    +138 for the 50-64s
    - 30 for the 25-49s (i.e. Remain ahead)
    - 162 for the 18-24s
    (with +11 difference to +140 given rounding effects)

    So if the 18-24s are stripped out of it, the 4% lead for Leave would grow to about 10%.

    The question is, can the Remain camp rely on the propensity of 18-24s to vote being almost identical to that of 65+s, something that YouGov assume in the absence of any turnout filter.'



    No it can't.



    Many 18-24 year old are immigrants.

    Does YouGov check to exclude these from their surveys?
    When you sign up to join the YouGov panel (or any of the internet panels) you have to answer a questionnaire which includes that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I recall a long series of posts from Richard Tyndall arguing that the EU can't force us out of the EEA against our will. As this referendum is strictly about EU membership, a government so-minded could say that a Leave vote does not give a mandate to leave the single market anyway. A sizeable number of Brexiters have been making this very argument for a long time.

    Good luck with that.

    Aside from no Vote Leaver standing for no change on free movement, the EU has made it clear that for an economy the size of the UK, an EEA option is not feasible.
    It's in both sides interests for there to be as little disruption as possible, so I suspect EFTA/EEA would be on the table.
    At least in the sbasis.
    I think it would be very sensible for the EU to split into:

    Eurozone
    and
    Associate Members

    The Associate Members would be outside CAP, CFP, and the political structures. They would contribute in a small way, but would not receive regional development funds. They would respect the Four Freedoms, but would be allowed to discriminate in favour of their own citizens.

    Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether.
    Robert does not formal acknowledgement of no ever closer union, no banking union, plus the EZ protection constitute de facto "associate membership"?

    What else would you put in and assuming you need the ECJ to opine on Single Market rules?
    No, absolutely not.

    We are still obliged to implement 100% of EU laws, versus the 4% Switzerland does.
    We are still forbidden from unilaterally lowering tariffs or entering trade agreements with the 93% of the world not in the EU. Unlike Switzerland and Norway.
    We are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ while Switzerland and Norway etc are not.

    Why do you think not being a part of a banking union makes up for having our hands tied with 93% of the world's population?
    Why do you think not being part of a huge trading bloc will get us better terms than being part of a huge trading bloc?

    Why do you suppose it is relatively easy for Norway to conclude trade deals?
    Because they only have to be concerned about their own interests not those of 27 other countries as well.
    Nothing to do with them being a single-product economy? K.
    It isn't. Oil and Gas does account for 51% of their exports but that is hardly a single-product economy.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    chestnut said:

    It looks like Remain have chucked in the towel as most comments are about trying to manage the aftermath of defeat.

    The idea that tweaks and manoeuvring will suffice is very reminiscent of Scottish Labour in winter 2014.

    Cameron tries to shore himself up by being surrounded by lefties. Desperate stuff. 16 campaigning days after today.
    Appealing to Guardian readers didn't work before either.
    Putting your PR hat on, who should they have had to lead the REMAIN campaign from the start? For me it should have been Alan Johnson (or similar) fronting the govt pr machine for 19 weeks. That way they would have got through to the key Labour voters with a friendly face. Today Cameron is on stage with some lefties who (IMHO) do not connect well with Labour's working class voters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941

    rcs1000 said:

    OT (sort of)

    Interesting development this morning. As you might know I have my own Geology/Archaeology business with my wife who is also a geologist.

    So after having had the business for 10 years and just 2 weeks before the EU referendum this morning for the first time ever my wife gets a letter from a company called Iwoca offering EU backed finance for my business. This company says the scheme is backed by the European Investment Bank and supported by the EU and trumpets the fact it has loaned £100 million to 4,500 businesses at low interest rates.

    Am I being rather cynical in wondering why, after 10 years and not a peep from these people we are suddenly getting an offer of an EU loan 2 weeks before the referendum.

    Although the European Investment Bank bills themselves as "The EU Bank", I think they are owned by European governments and not the EU themselves. I also think the shareholder list (although I could be wrong) includes non-EU countries.
    The letter specifically says 'Supported by the EU". And it is interesting timing coming just before the referendum when we have heard not a peep for the last decade. I wonder how many other small businesses are getting the same letter?
    I don't think any of my businesses have received such a letter, but I'm happy to check. I do know that the EIB lends across the whole EEA, so even if we do go for Brexit, you might be able to get a low interest loan.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937
    SeanT said:

    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.

    Catastrophic

    They have to save the show if they can. Somehow. It's worth too much. I reckon Evans will go at the end of the season
    They'll probably end up with the same solution to Have I Got News For You after they sacked Angus Deayton in a similar cock up.

    The show will never recover anyway and BBC has just handed the opening battle for control of the Anglosphere media world to Amazon.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    "We are Xenophobes, and we don't care..."

    Remainers world view:

    Ukrainian independence: Plucky eastern Europeans wanting to get out from under the yoke of Russia.

    UK Independence: A plot by a country stuffed with literally millions of Xenophobes and racists who have only accepted a few million people from overseas in recent years, the racist scum.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.

    Catastrophic

    They have to save the show if they can. Somehow. It's worth too much. I reckon Evans will go at the end of the season
    What I find so grimly amusing is that the BBC big wigs built the entire show around Evans - despite almost everyone saying NOOOOOOO!!! from the off.

    We've had dozens of leaks, rumours and line-up changes = none of them complimentary about him. And now the show is live, the audience still has the same opinion and leaving in droves. He was the wrong choice and remains the wrong choice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941



    It isn't. Oil and Gas does account for 51% of their exports but that is hardly a single-product economy.

    There's also rakfisk.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    New Hampshire
    Oh well only 1500miles out!
    :smile:

    The local joke always being that while New Hampshire's motto is Live Free or Die, neighbouring Maine is known as "Vacationland".
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.


    Top Gear spending far too much time with Star in a Reasonably Priced Car which is DULL, DULL, DULL.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,428

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    The government ran a campaign to identify 'A Motto for Britain' - and the nation of Boaty McBoatface rose magnificently to the challenge:

    'No Mottoes, Please, we're British'

    And my favourite:

    Dipso
    Fatso
    Asbo
    Tesco
    Wasn't the winner -- Mustn't grumble -- ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941
    taffys said:

    "We are Xenophobes, and we don't care..."

    Remainers world view:

    Ukrainian independence: Plucky eastern Europeans wanting to get out from under the yoke of Russia.

    UK Independence: A plot by a country stuffed with literally millions of Xenophobes and racists who have only accepted a few million people from overseas in recent years, the racist scum.

    To be fair, I don't think the EU is likely to send troops in and encourage London and the South East to secede.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937
    rcs1000 said:



    It isn't. Oil and Gas does account for 51% of their exports but that is hardly a single-product economy.

    There's also rakfisk.
    Teslas must be a big part of their imports judging by the number of them you see around the place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:



    It isn't. Oil and Gas does account for 51% of their exports but that is hardly a single-product economy.

    There's also rakfisk.
    I was surprised to see that machinery and transport equipment account for 23% of their exports. Norway never struck me before as a heavy industry manufacturer. Daft really. It should be given it has free electricity and access to good reserves of iron ore and mineral wealth.

    Edit to add the link

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/norway/exports
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Miss Plato, it's because the BBC didn't understand why Top Gear worked. It was three ageing blokes cocking about and having a laugh. The chemistry was the key.

    Mr. Glenn, it could. The BBC had a good presenting trio for F1, and Jenson Button appears to have gone down well (and *may* not have a drive next year).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OT (sort of)

    Interesting development this morning. As you might know I have my own Geology/Archaeology business with my wife who is also a geologist.

    So after having had the business for 10 years and just 2 weeks before the EU referendum this morning for the first time ever my wife gets a letter from a company called Iwoca offering EU backed finance for my business. This company says the scheme is backed by the European Investment Bank and supported by the EU and trumpets the fact it has loaned £100 million to 4,500 businesses at low interest rates.

    Am I being rather cynical in wondering why, after 10 years and not a peep from these people we are suddenly getting an offer of an EU loan 2 weeks before the referendum.

    Although the European Investment Bank bills themselves as "The EU Bank", I think they are owned by European governments and not the EU themselves. I also think the shareholder list (although I could be wrong) includes non-EU countries.
    The letter specifically says 'Supported by the EU". And it is interesting timing coming just before the referendum when we have heard not a peep for the last decade. I wonder how many other small businesses are getting the same letter?
    I don't think any of my businesses have received such a letter, but I'm happy to check. I do know that the EIB lends across the whole EEA, so even if we do go for Brexit, you might be able to get a low interest loan.
    Indeed. Though to be honest mine is not the sort of business that needs to take on debt as our overheads are very low.

    It is simply the timing I find amusing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,941

    rcs1000 said:



    It isn't. Oil and Gas does account for 51% of their exports but that is hardly a single-product economy.

    There's also rakfisk.
    I was surprised to see that machinery and transport equipment account for 23% of their exports. Norway never struck me before as a heavy industry manufacturer. Daft really. It should be given it has free electricity and access to good reserves of iron ore and mineral wealth.

    Edit to add the link

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/norway/exports
    There's quite a big oil & gas shipbuilding industry isn't there?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    I note Texas' motto is "live free or die". Bit extreme, I'd probably be a bit more British and be "live free and feel a bit under the weather economically for a bit".

    Just superb.

    Isn't that New Hampshire ?

    Texas is "Friendship"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Mr. P, that's unfair. I'm likely to vote Leave, and fully acknowledge the importance of Xenophon's writings.

    I think Scott is referring to an ambivalence to the Noble Gas.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    chestnut said:

    It looks like Remain have chucked in the towel as most comments are about trying to manage the aftermath of defeat.

    The idea that tweaks and manoeuvring will suffice is very reminiscent of Scottish Labour in winter 2014.

    Cameron tries to shore himself up by being surrounded by lefties. Desperate stuff. 16 campaigning days after today.
    Appealing to Guardian readers didn't work before either.
    Putting your PR hat on, who should they have had to lead the REMAIN campaign from the start? For me it should have been Alan Johnson (or similar) fronting the govt pr machine for 19 weeks. That way they would have got through to the key Labour voters with a friendly face. Today Cameron is on stage with some lefties who (IMHO) do not connect well with Labour's working class voters.
    I'd have gone for someone like Johnson - reassuring, nice on the telly as fodder. But he's no intellectual heft. I'd have picked Hillary Benn, even though his dad disagreed - he could have pivoted that as knowing the other argument well.

    But he was a non-starter given his leadership rival credentials.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003
    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.

    Catastrophic

    They have to save the show if they can. Somehow. It's worth too much. I reckon Evans will go at the end of the season
    What I find so grimly amusing is that the BBC big wigs built the entire show around Evans - despite almost everyone saying NOOOOOOO!!! from the off.

    We've had dozens of leaks, rumours and line-up changes = none of them complimentary about him. And now the show is live, the audience still has the same opinion and leaving in droves. He was the wrong choice and remains the wrong choice.
    BBC bigwigs are overly driven by 'talent', which doesn't necessarily mean 'talent'. You cannot simply drop a star into a format and expect it to work. But then the Beeb top brass probably never really understood Top Gear's appeal anyway. Like all great art, it was about several things, and about balance. They've lost the balance between the presenters, between humour and factual, and between audience and presenters. And they expected it to remain a hit?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @mrianleslie: These polls forcing me to consider that Leave might win, against all instinct. Now I'm wondering whether Miliband will have to resign as PM.

    :)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    It isn't. Oil and Gas does account for 51% of their exports but that is hardly a single-product economy.

    There's also rakfisk.
    I was surprised to see that machinery and transport equipment account for 23% of their exports. Norway never struck me before as a heavy industry manufacturer. Daft really. It should be given it has free electricity and access to good reserves of iron ore and mineral wealth.

    Edit to add the link

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/norway/exports
    There's quite a big oil & gas shipbuilding industry isn't there?
    Not really. All the rigs and platforms along with the tankers seem to be built in the Middle East or Far East these days. Very little is done in either the UK or Norway apart from maintenance.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited June 2016

    Roger said:

    Remain now deeply reliant on a swing in the polling station to see them through...

    No. Two and a half weeks of campaigning by which time those making a knee jerk reaction to the immgration figures might have reconsidered
    I don't see how the last two and a half weeks are going to be sufficient to create a Remain lead any more than 2 or 3 points.
    That's how negative campaigning works. The scare story last week was immigration. It moved the polls about 4/6 points. Next week it's likely to be cast into the deep blue sea without a lifejacket....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    SeanT said:

    Top Gear pulled in just 2.8 million viewers last night - down from 4.3million viewers last Sunday.

    But remember folks FACT, it's a hit.

    Catastrophic

    They have to save the show if they can. Somehow. It's worth too much. I reckon Evans will go at the end of the season
    They'll probably end up with the same solution to Have I Got News For You after they sacked Angus Deayton in a similar cock up.

    The show will never recover anyway and BBC has just handed the opening battle for control of the Anglosphere media world to Amazon.
    I never understood why they havent found a permanent host for HIGNFY. The guest host rarely have the level rapport and can be really hit and miss, some very good, some not so. Because of that, it isn't required viewing like it used to be in the Urquhart household.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    SeanT said:

    These reports of high potential turnout and massive registration numbers chime with my sense. People are engaging with this, in a way they normally don't, even at a GE

    I reckon we could see turnout over 70%. Maybe well over.

    We presume that favours REMAIN but does it? How many are usually-apathetic WWCs voting LEAVE to kick the Tories AND stop immigration?

    For a left wing WWC voter, a LEAVE vote is a no brainer

    They said there were 6m voters not registered this morning on the radio.

    Have they missed it? Even if not, I wouldn't expect too many to make the deadline if it's tomorrow..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I understand Alex Salmond will debate with Boris Johnson

    Never has the phrase "twa cheeks of the same erse" been more appropriate.

    Especially when BoJo keeps quoting Eck's "best" lines at him...
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