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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some MPs are set to remind the electorate that referendums are advisory and not binding on Parliament
Pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit, the BBC has learned.
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In one sense Referenda may only be advisory, but this referendum hasn't been sold as that. Either you don't have referenda (I think Ken Clarke doesn't like them in principle), you are explicit and remind the voters Parliament cannot be bound and they are advisory only, or you respect the will of the people. If the MPs begin to chip away at a Leave vote this would lead to a constitutional crisis. For the Leave campaign this is a gift; they can sell it as the elites ignoring the people.
Yes, I can see that going down well with the electorate, anyone even publically suggesting ignoring the electorate better be thinking seriously about a new choice of occupation after the next election.
I do, however, believe that the strong Remain majority among MPs will likely affect what the deal with the EU that we sign will look like.
If we vote Leave, trying to handwave the result away would be met with total public outrage - and terminally damage those who tried it on.
I've already shared your BBC link - it's as you say a total gift for Leave, even before the vote.
What legitimacy would be left in a world where MP's in Parliament call a binary choice referendum and then choose to ignore the outcome in a fair election because they don't like it? Sturgeon could just as well declare UDI on June 24th and who could blame her?
Dole queue for MP's in their droves.
This smacks of politicians fearful of losing deciding they know best and, right after asking the electorate what they think, ignoring one of the key aspects (migration).
Cameron should be pressed on this.
It could lead to a constitutional crisis (also worth noting Remain still have a great chance of victory, for all the doom-laden feeling).
UK exports to the EU as a proportion of GDP in 2015, 9.6%
EU exports to the UK as a proportion of EU GDP 2.8%
The former figure is falling and the latter is rising. On current trends the delta will be down from 6.8% to under 4% within five years.
Leaving the EU isn't as big an economic gamble as people are being led to believe.
2) I look forward to a thread full of Leavers huffing and puffing about the very idea when the same Leavers have exuberantly posted about the idea that diehard Leaver MPs could run a guerrilla campaign in Parliament in the event of a Remain victory.
3) I'm not the modest type so I will point out my third bullet point at the end of this thread header:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/21/alastair-meeks-says-the-eurosceptics-are-destroying-the-conservative-party/
Any SNP MP will not want to reverse a Leave referendum win unilaterally but instead put an amendment to have a second Indyref before Brexit is implemented.
Many Labour MPs will be tempted to ignore the will of the people but a significant number will be willing to break away from the existing pro-EU group think.
There will be no majority to override the result.
The issue is that there would probably be a Commons majority for EEA but not a Tory one. And there wouldn't be any kind of majority for CO. This is just something Cameron's replacement will have to deal with. Which is why a general election is quite likely.
1) It is not for the Leave campaign to determine what happens post a Leave vote; that's up to the government.
2) Any initiative by the government which deviates from the Leave manifesto is not to be tolerated.
Did I miss anything?
On the parliamentary arithmetic, unless Labour had a whipped vote against a new UK-EU deal I can't see it failing to pass the commons.
Let's be pessimistic: the SNP will definitely vote against, Green/SDLP/LD/Plaid too and Labour too
Conversely, Carswell/DUP/UUP/Tory leadership for (but with 40 Tory rebels and abstentions) except a dozen or so Labour Brexit rebels join them
I get about 308 MPs for the new deal and 299 against. That's with all other Labour MPs obeying the whip.
The bigger problem will be getting it through the Lords, IMHO.
I gather the valleys are very pro leave. Labour in south Wales will go the same way as in Scotland if they are not careful.
Indeed. But if you think that the British parliament would do anything other than respect the will of the nation as expressed in a referendum then in that event, I expect you to be uncomfortably surprised.
(The only exception I'd make is if the referendum is so close that there are questions about the accuracy of the declared result, though in that case it'd be a real constitutional crisis, quite possibly leading to a second vote rather than parliament trying to close down the issue one way or the other).
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/almost-six-in-ten-party-members-blame-cameron-and-osborne-most-for-tory-eu-referendum-divisions.html
"the numbers blaming Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and the Leave campaign have reduced very slightly, falling from 16 per cent to 15.2 per cent."
I'd think the Crossbenchers would almost all vote in line with the referendum result for that reason. Tories plus Crossbenchers is a majority.
(1) Huge pressure on the Government to ignore the vote
(2) When that fails, suggest further EU reform talks with UK as a full member, possibly punted into the long grass
(3) When that looks politically impossible, push hard for EEA-EFTA membership as next best thing (MPs will be very heavily lobbied)
I don't know how much further the Government will go.
I think Gove would genuinely like to pursue the new UK-EU institutional framework and bespoke treaty he's talked about.
I think Boris would take the path of least resistance.
Quite bizarre. Is Will Straw getting his excuses in early?
Which is not to say that Leaves should lay down the arms and go meekly into the glorious EU future, any more than the Labour party (usually!) lays down its arms and goes into a glorious Conservative future after losing an election.\
If Remain wins it's reasonable to honor that vote, its also reasonable to allow a sensible period to pass before bringing it back to a vote again, 15-20 years maybe. However it also has to be recognised that any attempt to backslide from the "renegotiation" or substantial changes in the terms under which we are members should be considered fair game for opening the whole issue back up again.
However, it may fall under Inheritance Tax rules at some later point. If the giver lives 7 years then no issue. But this is an issue for the giver and their estate, not for you, I think. Best to check with a professional if it is a large sum though.
With a decent leader Labour would win by a distance and immediately offer another Referendum. The public having seen a year of turmoil and job losses will reverse their previous decision and we'll sail into the sunset back in the EU with a sensible Labour government with the wrecked Tory party and their UKIP allies out for a generation....
Personally, I'd just take the flak and appoint another 40 Tory peers and get on with it.
This story is horrendous for remain. Legally its sound, I'm sure, and people vote for stupid reasons wll the time without thinking about implications but the will would be clear. Whichever side loses can have no excuses - I know sone of my leaver comrades are still whining about unfairness and mean old mr Cameron, but the retorts and messages of leave and remain are out there, and if they are ignored that's unfortunate but the public choice, we will all have had the opportunity to consider them. So a story like this just looks awful for the remainers. I spent time with some absolutely astounding racists (I knew they were a little racist, but was shocked at just how much)who are leaning remain. Not reflective of anything Probably, but we cannot assume a majority of leavers are xenophobic either.
'You can be quite sure that a Tory Brexiteer say Boris whose local count showed that although Leave had a narrow win nationally , his constituents had voted for Remain would be applauded by Leavers on here for ignoring his constituents views .'
Reminds me of a party promising the country they would abolish tuition fees if elected to government,reneging on that promise & being surprised 5 years later that they had become a fringe party.
Lol.
Even if the existing Lords did decide to stop it we can create new Lords and call a new vote.
Even if for some reason that wasn't done then there's the Parliament Act.
The Lords are utterly powerless here. The only way they could have a role is as a stalling tactic in backing an SNP Amendment to have Indyref 2 before we Brexit. Though the SNP famously have zero Lords to push for that Amendment.
I cannot see them going against that suggestion, it's a bloody stupid idea, but I'd have though legally its fine and it's interesting if it doesn't quite meet the convention when it comes to using the parliament act.
They were elected to abolish tuition fees; they voted to increase them.
I've read some more and that tallies with what you say: it's tax-free, unless the giver dies within 7 years, at which point it may be subject to 40% inheritance tax.
https://www.gov.uk/inheritance-tax/gifts
I'm pretty sure that's the case. [I'm unaccustomed to having this sort of problem
The Lords aren't all in favour of the credibility of the Lords and some of them think they (truly) reflect the real opposition in this country that Corbyn's Labour do not. And a year's delay is a big deal if ratifying a new treaty is required to end uncertainty and kick start investment (on our new terms) prior to the next GE.
So I wouldn't rule anything out.
Not sure about whose boobs I'd want to see.
The advantages of writing a leader over a comment: review time.
So be cautious about a truly cash "cash-gift". If there is no other paper-trail, get the giftor to put something in writing.
Having no second chamber means there are no checks and balances on Government policy and having an elected one with plenipotentiary powers results in two scenarios.
1) It is pro Government (HoC) - in which case it is superfluous or
2) It is Anti Government - in which case we get deadlock.
Unfortunately the HoC (Tony Blair in Particular) decided to play around with the HoL and it is now in Limbo. It was also abused over the recent (30 years or so) past by the Prime Minister power of elevating political supporters to the HoL, only to find that the opposing PM did the same.
For all its faults, having hereditary Peers worked pretty well for 600 years. (Despite being satirised by WH Gilbert and Sir Arthur Sullivan.)
2016
"If history is any guide, then “remain” is still heading for victory on June 23." Jun 06, 2016
http://politicscounter.com/?p=77&utm_content=bufferbad94&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
2015
"Peter Kellner told business leaders Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister by a hair’s breadth and with less seats than the Conservatives. One week before the General Election, he said: “This is the most uncertain election that I can recall. At the moment, I think we’re heading for a really quite interesting and fraught outcome in which the Conservatives will have more seats than Labour, but not enough to carry on in government.” He projected that the Conservatives would win a minority victory with 280 seats – just ten more than Labour at 270."
OT Just heard someone say 'Liberte Egalite Footey!' Made me smile on an otherwise bleak day. Even if Remain win there's no doubting the rather ugly underbelly that this Referendum has exposed.
I'd also note that the raw numbers don't measure value add. So, we import gas from Norway (non-EU import), and then we export it to Ireland (EU export). Although it's a really big number, it also has a negligible impact on the British economy.
Also important to note the distinction between Government and Parliament
Parliament will respect the will of the British people (out of the EU) but there may be a majority in Parliament for EFTA/EEA
Since that is not on the ballot paper, parliament would not be subverting the will of the British people by implementing that
And it may be true that the Government would be voted out of office, but I am still not sure it would result in a UKIP majority
And for those who claim that all of this would be avoided if the Tories had a Brexiteer instead of Cameron, they had IDS. If they had him again, Ed would be PM (or Gordo for that matter)
It's the latter effect that is really the most visible, our EU exports as a proportion of GDP is falling by around 0.3-0.6% per year, our import share of the EU economy is rising (0.05-0.20% per year), but not as quickly as our exports are falling.