I don't think the premise of this story is quite right. The idea for traders to commission an early idea of which way a close vote is going is far from new - it's been done many times before. You don't really get anything that would inspire any confidence until very late in the day (sometimes not even then). You would most likely only start to see market impact about half an hour before the polls close.
(Currency trader since prehistoric times.. even pre-EMU..)
So the real question is not whether they have come up with the best solution to the complex and messy question of immigration, that is not their responsibility. The real question is whether it would be possible for the government of the day to choose to take steps to restrict immigration from the EU or even parts of the EU if it thought that was advisable. And the answer is self-evident.
The real question surely is how much of what Leave propose would it politically tenable for the government of the day to ignore should Leave win the referendum, especially if by more than a few percent.
The question isn't will the next PM be Boris, or Gove, or May or Uncle Tom Cobley, the question is to what extent that PM feels their hands are tied, in electoral survivability terms, by the Leave Platform, in the event of a leave vote.
They cannot ignore the decision to leave. That is all we are being asked to express an opinion on. Everything else is up for grabs.
A general election in 2016 is 12/1 with Ladbrokes. 2017 is 16/1. How else would a government get a mandate to negotiate after a Leave vote?
The mandate to negotiate would be the Leave vote.
I agree you can argue a GE or 2nd referendum may be needed to ratify any new deal, but not to negotiate it.
Leave on what terms? The moonbeams and pixie dust idea that the Leave camp have put forward that the EU would give Britain everything the Leave campaigners want might suit them well during the campaign but any government that came up short in negotiations, as it inevitably would, would be stitching itself up.
Westminster was going to give Scotland everything it wanted in the independence negotiations.
With the big difference that the SNP didn't mind losing popularity after a vote for independence.
I am not sure that Farage and UKIP would be that bothered either.
They wouldn't be losing popularity. They would be screaming of betrayal.
Will Straw: "Australia, who have a points-based immigration system, have twice as many migrants per head as the UK."
Are you a muppet or what? They could just as easily have half the level - they have control.
And they're also an entire continent - we're a small island. I can only assume he doesn't bother to engage his brain either.
They're really not. Australia is a defacto long thin island about 100kms wide, running from Melbourne to Brisbane. The rest of it may as well not be there. It's utterly inhabitable
I've little doubt that leaving the EU will be the wost decision this country has made in my lifetime. This is not voting on who should leave the big brother household. This will adversely affect everyone but particularly those under 40 who will miss out on so much that we've all taken for granted for decades.
It's time for everyone who has thought this through to go out and sell.
And fast.
The lunatics are taking over the asylum
In order for us to leave there needs to be about 15 million Lunatics, nice that you have such a high opinion of your fellow citizens, most of whom to be fair would not have dreamed of voting for leave if Blairite idiots had not opened the floodgates in the first place.
We are largely a tolerant live-and-let-live sort of people, had there been a steady flow of immigrants into the country of 100-150k per year, and more than proforma attempts to help them integrate, along with adequate increases in health and school provisions to support that increase I doubt we would be where we are now.
My big hope is that enough of those 15 million won't be able to drag themselves away from Jeremy Kyle long enough to vote
"As Co-Leaders we, therefore, want to fully explore the idea of a one general election only progressive alliance in 2020 in England & Wales, with other political parties of the left. The purpose of such an alliance would be to secure a deal on proportional representation and allow the Green Party’s growing support to translate into a fair number of seats in Westminster and on councils up and down the country."
Will Straw: "Australia, who have a points-based immigration system, have twice as many migrants per head as the UK."
Are you a muppet or what? They could just as easily have half the level - they have control.
They could. But a points based system would be a really bad way of controlling it. In the words of the anti-immigration Migration Watch, "totally unsuitable for the UK":
As you mention it will be fascinating to see the effect if by late afternoon the news is full of the pound plummeting. Of course we will never really know whether people voting in the evening have changed their minds or not. I suspect that in that scenario it is likely to push weak Remainers out to vote and increase turnout.
Regardless of the overall outcome I expect Leave to have their best percentages during the day (retired) and Remain from 5.00pm on as working people get home.
In a tight vote Leave would probably be ahead at 5.00pm even if they ultimately lost but I guess it will give them another conspiracy theory to hold onto if they lose - the stab-in-the-back from the bankers!
I've little doubt that leaving the EU will be the wost decision this country has made in my lifetime. This is not voting on who should leave the big brother household. This will adversely affect everyone but particularly those under 40 who will miss out on so much that we've all taken for granted for decades.
It's time for everyone who has thought this through to go out and sell.
And fast.
The lunatics are taking over the asylum
In order for us to leave there needs to be about 15 million Lunatics, nice that you have such a high opinion of your fellow citizens, most of whom to be fair would not have dreamed of voting for leave if Blairite idiots had not opened the floodgates in the first place.
We are largely a tolerant live-and-let-live sort of people, had there been a steady flow of immigrants into the country of 100-150k per year, and more than proforma attempts to help them integrate, along with adequate increases in health and school provisions to support that increase I doubt we would be where we are now.
My big hope is that enough of those 15 million won't be able to drag themselves away from Jeremy Kyle long enough to vote
I fear you will hope in vain. Leave's "secret" weapon is going to be the zeal of its voters. Most of Remain is lukewarm at best, Leave is on a mission.
I was very certain remain would win, now I have a bit of doubt, not much though. It feels like the day when Yes took the lead in a poll for the Scottish Independence referendum. That was false hope and in part led to the SNP dominance.
The difference this time is that the majority of conservatives for many years have been a euro-sceptic party and their leaders have reflected this , which meant code for leave for many supporters , but in reality the leaders of the party had no intention to leave. As they thought correctly in my opinion that leave had no chance in the UK as a whole in any referendum. The false hope will cause damage and the Cameron/Osborne new labour policies will never have that dominant feeling again.
I was very certain remain would win, now I have a bit of doubt, not much though. It feels like the day when Yes took the lead in a poll for the Scottish Independence referendum. That was false hope and in part led to the SNP dominance.
The difference this time is that the majority of conservatives for many years have been a euro-sceptic party and their leaders have reflected this , which meant code for leave for many supporters , but in reality the leaders of the party had no intention to leave. As they thought correctly in my opinion that leave had no chance in the UK as a whole in any referendum. The false hope will cause damage and the Cameron/Osborne new labour policies will never have that dominant feeling again.
Cameron’s a secret Leaver. Has to be, the way he’s behaving.
I've little doubt that leaving the EU will be the wost decision this country has made in my lifetime. This is not voting on who should leave the big brother household. This will adversely affect everyone but particularly those under 40 who will miss out on so much that we've all taken for granted for decades.
It's time for everyone who has thought this through to go out and sell.
And fast.
The lunatics are taking over the asylum
In order for us to leave there needs to be about 15 million Lunatics, nice that you have such a high opinion of your fellow citizens, most of whom to be fair would not have dreamed of voting for leave if Blairite idiots had not opened the floodgates in the first place.
We are largely a tolerant live-and-let-live sort of people, had there been a steady flow of immigrants into the country of 100-150k per year, and more than proforma attempts to help them integrate, along with adequate increases in health and school provisions to support that increase I doubt we would be where we are now.
My big hope is that enough of those 15 million won't be able to drag themselves away from Jeremy Kyle long enough to vote
Wow - the ICM polls last night. Certainly has put a cat among the pigeons! Think my prediction of a 15 point Remain win looks like it will be blown out of the water - it's going to be much closer than that!
With it being so close, turnout is going to be critical. A wildcard for the day itself surely has to be the weather? Common perception is that poor weather supresses turnout - is this actually true?
If Leave wins, what do we think the polls will look like in the autumn or next year? Would UKIP surge (and at whose expense)? How will Conservative polling hold up - depends on the new leader, the economy, perhaps on the international reaction (a negative reaction could boost their domestic support)?
The new Conservative leader is not going to call an election unless it looks like she would win it. Well, unless she loses a vote of confidence.
I've little doubt that leaving the EU will be the wost decision this country has made in my lifetime. This is not voting on who should leave the big brother household. This will adversely affect everyone but particularly those under 40 who will miss out on so much that we've all taken for granted for decades.
It's time for everyone who has thought this through to go out and sell.
And fast.
The lunatics are taking over the asylum
In order for us to leave there needs to be about 15 million Lunatics, nice that you have such a high opinion of your fellow citizens, most of whom to be fair would not have dreamed of voting for leave if Blairite idiots had not opened the floodgates in the first place.
We are largely a tolerant live-and-let-live sort of people, had there been a steady flow of immigrants into the country of 100-150k per year, and more than proforma attempts to help them integrate, along with adequate increases in health and school provisions to support that increase I doubt we would be where we are now.
My big hope is that enough of those 15 million won't be able to drag themselves away from Jeremy Kyle long enough to vote
No wonder you moved to France, you have such a low opinion of your countrymen. We should feel honoured you're prepared to grace us with your presence.
I've little doubt that leaving the EU will be the wost decision this country has made in my lifetime. This is not voting on who should leave the big brother household. This will adversely affect everyone but particularly those under 40 who will miss out on so much that we've all taken for granted for decades.
It's time for everyone who has thought this through to go out and sell.
And fast.
The lunatics are taking over the asylum
In order for us to leave there needs to be about 15 million Lunatics, nice that you have such a high opinion of your fellow citizens, most of whom to be fair would not have dreamed of voting for leave if Blairite idiots had not opened the floodgates in the first place.
We are largely a tolerant live-and-let-live sort of people, had there been a steady flow of immigrants into the country of 100-150k per year, and more than proforma attempts to help them integrate, along with adequate increases in health and school provisions to support that increase I doubt we would be where we are now.
My big hope is that enough of those 15 million won't be able to drag themselves away from Jeremy Kyle long enough to vote
From my sick bed I see a very complicated but malevolent picture taking place as referendum day gets nearer.
My advice: Buy Eros short term. Buy $ long term. But above all put away a bit of Gold.
Buy Eros...Brexit means price of hookers to rise...
must be a mistype.
I suspect the Eros might work out better than the euros. If there is a Leave vote the euro will be trashed against pretty much everything except GBP. It's not a great secret that the eurozone is on the precipice anyway.
For those travelling or working abroad Just 23 days till the pound becomes a basket case......
(For those watching Jeremy Kyle ....don't worry about it)
They will not worry about it, if you live from hand to mouth week to week , article 50 and a two year re- negotiation are not your problem. I can not see this been over a General Election turnout , so in one party thiefdoms that have never changed hands in generations many will have the same mindset why bother nothing changes, and they will be correct from their perspective. Which is good for remain as many if they did get angry and got to the polling booth would vote leave.
From my sick bed I see a very complicated but malevolent picture taking place as referendum day gets nearer.
My advice: Buy Eros short term. Buy $ long term. But above all put away a bit of Gold.
Buy Eros...Brexit means price of hookers to rise...
must be a mistype.
I suspect the Eros might work out better than the euros. If there is a Leave vote the euro will be trashed against pretty much everything except GBP. It's not a great secret that the eurozone is on the precipice anyway.
From here, I'd reckon sterling would be off 8-10% against the dollar, and the Euro off 4-6%
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
The latest story about Leave "revealing" their "policies" to control immigration hold as much substance as the ridiculous claims yesterday that they were making "unfunded" promises.
People have rightly drawn attention to the many similarities with the Indyref and this vote but there is one key difference. If Scotland had voted yes the Scottish government led by the SNP would have been the government responsible for implementing their proposals, god help them. That is not the case here. The Vote Leave campaign ends on 24th June regardless of the result and will not be implementing anything.
So the real question is not whether they have come up with the best solution to the complex and messy question of immigration, that is not their responsibility. The real question is whether it would be possible for the government of the day to choose to take steps to restrict immigration from the EU or even parts of the EU if it thought that was advisable. And the answer is self-evident.
It's certainly coming across as an alternative manifesto in the making post Brexit. I'm expecting more of the same from VoteLeave. It's something the electorate sees as familiar/tangible/doable.
Whilst there's clear parallels with SIndy, I'd argue that the Yessers were reliant on a single commodity - oil - to buoy them up, or not as the case may be. The fundamental issues such as currency/BoE aren't in play re Brexit.
For oil read the Single Market. It is now completely clear that two years following the Leave vote we will no longer be a part of that. We have to hope that the Leave camp is correct and that removing ourselves from the Single Market will have no adverse consequences - either directly or indirectly.
I suspect that two years might become four or five quite easily. That two year limit is subject to extension by mutual agreement. It would seem entirely possible that a Boris Government (which would be soft Leave at best) and the EU would both consider it in their interest to extent that period several times as they attempt to thresh out the minutiae of the agreement. The public will probably give this the benefit of the doubt for far longer than is reasonable.
I cannot see the exit negotiations taking years. Any Leave government would face a terrible backlash in the interim period. I would see freedom of movement continuing (and indeed many making the move before the door shuts) while the uncertainty stimies the economy.
Any government that wanted to survive would have to get a move on, or be destroyed in an election. It is very unlikely to be an orderly departure.
Wow - the ICM polls last night. Certainly has put a cat among the pigeons! Think my prediction of a 15 point Remain win looks like it will be blown out of the water - it's going to be much closer than that!
With it being so close, turnout is going to be critical. A wildcard for the day itself surely has to be the weather? Common perception is that poor weather supresses turnout - is this actually true?
It is probably out-dated. It used to be said decades back that on wet days Labour voters stayed home because they didn't have cars. But, back then, they probably all lived in terraced streets and only had to walk down t'nearest school in t'clogs to cast t'vote any road....
I suspect things may have moved on. The glorious stewardship of our economy by successive Tory Chancellors has allowed even Labourites to afford cars....
From my sick bed I see a very complicated but malevolent picture taking place as referendum day gets nearer.
My advice: Buy Eros short term. Buy $ long term. But above all put away a bit of Gold.
Buy Eros...Brexit means price of hookers to rise...
must be a mistype.
I suspect the Eros might work out better than the euros. If there is a Leave vote the euro will be trashed against pretty much everything except GBP. It's not a great secret that the eurozone is on the precipice anyway.
From here, I'd reckon sterling would be off 8-10% against the dollar, and the Euro off 4-6%
From my sick bed I see a very complicated but malevolent picture taking place as referendum day gets nearer.
My advice: Buy Eros short term. Buy $ long term. But above all put away a bit of Gold.
Good advice. I was getting just short of 140 e's to the £ before the referendum was announced now it's just over 120. If we Leave it could go down to 1 for 1. Not great for people's summer holidays but that's not too worrying unless you're on your uppers....
It's the loss of those wonderful 'Easy Rider' freedoms that those of us who live and work in the EU understand so well.
For those travelling or working abroad Just 23 days till the pound becomes a basket case......
(For those watching Jeremy Kyle ....don't worry about it)
And I'm sitting here working out (literally) how much I'll be able to put my prices up to gain more margin on my exports if the Pound does drop significantly (well those not denominated in Euros anyway). Depends which side of the fence you are on.
Whilst there's clear parallels with SIndy, I'd argue that the Yessers were reliant on a single commodity - oil - to buoy them up, or not as the case may be. The fundamental issues such as currency/BoE aren't in play re Brexit.
I agree.
If we do vote leave then the Remain camp need to concentrate their fire on their strategists who may well have fundamentally misread the situation and fallen into the trap of assuming it’s Scotland all over again.
The opinion polls have been saying for YEARS that the British were out of love with the EU. Scottish polls showed nothing of the kind; just four leads for Indy in nearly four years, two of them in the final three weeks of the campaign.
In the end, Scotland only stayed because the pensioners could see the UK government paying their pensions from UK taxes and UK borrowings. Where is the European parallel to that entwinement?
The economic arguments did not work on the Scottish working age population, who were out of love with a country with whom it shared up to 300 years worth of history, language, debt, infrastructure, currency and social welfare policy. Again, why would a British people with considerably less in common and less present and historic entanglement with the EU react more favourably?
Cameron should have known a flimsy renegotiation would not cut it. He needed substantial, tangible reform.
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
I've little doubt that leaving the EU will be the wost decision this country has made in my lifetime. This is not voting on who should leave the big brother household. This will adversely affect everyone but particularly those under 40 who will miss out on so much that we've all taken for granted for decades.
It's time for everyone who has thought this through to go out and sell.
And fast.
The lunatics are taking over the asylum
Don't be daft Roger the lunatics already control the asylum, this is just the shift change.
I don't agree with the premise of this artice. A "run" on the pound would be a situation where there are no buyers and only sellers. This is what happened in 1992, when the Pound was kept at an artificial level and the pressure built and built before black Wednesday when the market decided it had had enough. The Pound is not currently trading in an artificial range.
With regard to the private exit polls, I don't particularly see what advantage this would give an institution. There is no fundemental reason why the Pound should rise or fall on the basis of a remain or leave vote. I would not authorise trades based upon incomplete data about the result of a vote; especially when the market may react in a different way to what I am expecting. If I was betting on a binary outcome (Remain/Leave) then yes, I would see the value in an exit poll; but the value of one currency to another is not a binary assessment.
At the end of the day, the currency's strength or weakness is set by the fundementals which are broadly: interest rates, demand for the currency, balance of payments, current account, government debt & budget and forecast GDP. Let's also not forget that for any currency trade you have another side: so GBP/USD is as much about the Dollar as it is the Pound, GBP/EUR is as much about the Euro as it is about the Pound. The weakness in the Pound is as much to do with high deficit as a % of GDP, ultra low interest rates, low productivity, balance of payments deficit and a fall in the credibility of the government to bring the public finances into order as it is to do with the impact of the referendum.
For those travelling or working abroad Just 23 days till the pound becomes a basket case......
(For those watching Jeremy Kyle ....don't worry about it)
They will not worry about it, if you live from hand to mouth week to week , article 50 and a two year re- negotiation are not your problem. I can not see this been over a General Election turnout , so in one party thiefdoms that have never changed hands in generations many will have the same mindset why bother nothing changes, and they will be correct from their perspective. Which is good for remain as many if they did get angry and got to the polling booth would vote leave.
The problem is that the younger generation who don't think Latvia is a female body part understand the delights of travelling to 28 countries all distict and different to work or play without borders but the older ones who are going to decide this haven't thought it through.
Cameron should have known a flimsy renegotiation would not cut it. He needed substantial, tangible reform.
The one similarity between Cameron and Mrs Indigo, they both seem to think that no matter how deep the sh*t gets, some miracle will come along and dig them out again!
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Half the rise in population in the ONS forecast is down to endogenous growth, and of the half that is down to migration only half is down to EU migration. Leaving the EU with an absolute halt to EU migration still results in 75% or so of the projected 4 million population rise.
From my sick bed I see a very complicated but malevolent picture taking place as referendum day gets nearer.
My advice: Buy Eros short term. Buy $ long term. But above all put away a bit of Gold.
Buy Eros...Brexit means price of hookers to rise...
must be a mistype.
I suspect the Eros might work out better than the euros. If there is a Leave vote the euro will be trashed against pretty much everything except GBP. It's not a great secret that the eurozone is on the precipice anyway.
From here, I'd reckon sterling would be off 8-10% against the dollar, and the Euro off 4-6%
How long would you expect that dip to last ?
It depends on how the UK and the EU respond to it. It's entirely possible that in the event of a sensible FTA being organised - at the heads of terms level - within a year, that they are both up. On the other hand, if either or both sides behave badly, then they could both slip further.
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Half the rise in population in the ONS forecast is down to endogenous growth, and of the half that is down to migration only half is down to EU migration. Leaving the EU with an absolute halt to EU migration still results in 75% or so of the projected 4 million population rise.
I'll ask you the same question:
Do you foresee a time when we'll need to manage population numbers: if so when?
@blackburn63 The only one of those numbers that is foreseeable in any sensible time horizon is 80 million (projected for 2056). I wouldn't cry enough before then because we could comfortably accommodate 80 million in that sort of time horizon.
How far in the future do you want to look before you admit that your chicken licken terror of other people can be ignored as baseless ravings?
The behaviour and attitude of our regular Remain posters on this thread this morning demonstrates precisely why they are losing the argument.
What are we doing wrong?
I am saying that I hope leave's arguments are correct; others are pointing out that Leave is focusing in immigration and that there are some holes in their arguments. No-one is calling anyone a racist, as far as I can tell.
I don't agree with the premise of this artice. A "run" on the pound would be a situation where there are no buyers and only sellers. This is what happened in 1992, when the Pound was kept at an artificial level and the pressure built and built before black Wednesday when the market decided it had had enough. The Pound is not currently trading in an artificial range.
With regard to the private exit polls, I don't particularly see what advantage this would give an institution. There is no fundemental reason why the Pound should rise or fall on the basis of a remain or leave vote. I would not authorise trades based upon incomplete data about the result of a vote; especially when the market may react in a different way to what I am expecting. If I was betting on a binary outcome (Remain/Leave) then yes, I would see the value in an exit poll; but the value of one currency to another is not a binary assessment.
At the end of the day, the currency's strength or weakness is set by the fundementals which are broadly: interest rates, demand for the currency, balance of payments, current account, government debt & budget and forecast GDP. Let's also not forget that for any currency trade you have another side: so GBP/USD is as much about the Dollar as it is the Pound, GBP/EUR is as much about the Euro as it is about the Pound. The weakness in the Pound is as much to do with high deficit as a % of GDP, ultra low interest rates, low productivity, balance of payments deficit and a fall in the credibility of the government to bring the public finances into order as it is to do with the impact of the referendum.
There's no such thing as "no buyers". There is only the price at which the market clears.
In common parlance, what is suggested is that the pound will decline against a basket of currencies in the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.
That does not sound like an unreasonable forecast to me.
Not that I want to shoot Leavers hopes down in flames but those polls yesterday looked a bit roguey to me. Lots of people were away for the BH weekend (tens of thousands in Cornwall for a start) and the referendum was the last thing on their minds, including mine. Bank Holiday polls are notoriously 'interesting'.
I expect there has been a very small swing to Leave since Thursday (as a function of the campaign coverage on migration and the Leave leaflets hitting the doorstep) but nothing like the 7% swing being cited.
For those travelling or working abroad Just 23 days till the pound becomes a basket case......
(For those watching Jeremy Kyle ....don't worry about it)
They will not worry about it, if you live from hand to mouth week to week , article 50 and a two year re- negotiation are not your problem. I can not see this been over a General Election turnout , so in one party thiefdoms that have never changed hands in generations many will have the same mindset why bother nothing changes, and they will be correct from their perspective. Which is good for remain as many if they did get angry and got to the polling booth would vote leave.
The problem is that the younger generation who don't think Latvia is a female body part understand the delights of travelling to 28 countries all distict and different to work or play without borders but the older ones who are going to decide this haven't thought it through.
They're still hung up on bananas
How many of those countries even in the event of a BrExit would be more inconvenient than the flash of a passport at immigration ? I have been doing business on the other side of the world for the last decade in most of the countries in Asia, and immigration is very much the least of my worries, almost all of them take one look at my British Passport and give me a 28 day visa, all of those have been extendable on demand for up to two year for nominal amounts. I am a permanent resident here in the Philippines which was relatively painless to get and costs next to nothing to maintain. Honestly I worry more about where to find a good dentist than I do about immigration.
AlastairMeeks - says the person who has bought a home in rural Hungary?
Doesn't he own one in Ireland too? His Hungarian one has a heated swimming pool. IIRC, it was once his avatar.
The wealthy and those who do not need to work will be insulated from the effects of Brexit. Lawyers like Alastair are going to make a fortune from it. If he does not have a house in Ireland he will soon be able to buy one. Though I imagine he'd look elsewhere. I know I would :-)
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Surely the market will sort out out? Too many people = high cost of living and low wages.
Mr. Meeks, there are serious problems integrating the current numbers we have coming over. Hence the proliferation of Sharia courts and cultural enclaves. It also affects political judgement to the extent nothing was done about Tower Hamlets for years, and the Rotherham scandal was left alone for over a decade due to fear of upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.
It's rather blasé to suggest concern about the rate of immigration is a baseless raving.
Mr. Meeks, there are serious problems integrating the current numbers we have coming over. Hence the proliferation of Sharia courts and cultural enclaves. It also affects political judgement to the extent nothing was done about Tower Hamlets for years, and the Rotherham scandal was left alone for over a decade due to fear of upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.
It's rather blasé to suggest concern about the rate of immigration is a baseless raving.
What have Sharia courts got to do with the EU? Leave wishes to increase the amount of immigration from outside the EU.
Mr. 1000, but if the low wages are high relative to the source country of a given migrant and they're willing to live jam-packed in housing to save money which can be sent home, all that does is harm native workers by driving down wages and raising costs.
Mr. Royale, I agree. There's been too much panic/giddiness over the polls (they were good for Leave, but we're three weeks from the day and two polls do not a referendum victory make).
The behaviour and attitude of our regular Remain posters on this thread this morning demonstrates precisely why they are losing the argument.
What are we doing wrong?
I am saying that I hope leave's arguments are correct; others are pointing out that Leave is focusing in immigration and that there are some holes in their arguments. No-one is calling anyone a racist, as far as I can tell.
For all of the excitement: It's still only one Bank Holiday poll.
I like the points based idea a l'Australia, though RCS' "£5K on the door" (I paraphrase) does look a sensible idea too.
Almost inevitably we would end up with a compromise. Maybe you have the right to live here but only if you can support yourself to a certain level via a job or private means?. The whole problem of EU immigration encapsulates the morphing of a Common Market of 6 (9 when we joined) of fairly equal(ish) Western European economies in a world decades before Ryanair or Wizz, into an economically utterly asymmetric grouping where to tens of millions of Eastern Europeans it makes perfect sense to try their luck when the price of getting back on a cheapy flight is minimal if it doesn't work out. Throw in a European courts system that seemingly refuses to allow us to throw anyone out, English as the de facto lingua franca, and it's not surprising people are living 4 to a room in outer London boroughs and a house in an "average" part of London is nudging half a million. And now we have images of people camped on the cliffs in France waiting to take leaky boats across a cold stormy Channel just to add to the mix.
Juncker et are so wedded to the principle drawn up in 1957 they are seemingly blind (or just don't care) to the actual effects it's having in the world of 2016.
By the way for all the fuss I still expect Remain to squeak it, and what Cameron does from there God knows.
Not that I want to shoot Leavers hopes down in flames but those polls yesterday looked a bit roguey to me. Lots of people were away for the BH weekend (tens of thousands in Cornwall for a start) and the referendum was the last thing on their minds, including mine. Bank Holiday polls are notoriously 'interesting'.
I expect there has been a very small swing to Leave since Thursday (as a function of the campaign coverage on migration and the Leave leaflets hitting the doorstep) but nothing like the 7% swing being cited.
It's herding. I think it's very sad that we didn't get a thread header on the Yougov phone poll.
@blackburn63 The only one of those numbers that is foreseeable in any sensible time horizon is 80 million (projected for 2056). I wouldn't cry enough before then because we could comfortably accommodate 80 million in that sort of time horizon.
How far in the future do you want to look before you admit that your chicken licken terror of other people can be ignored as baseless ravings?
Your evasion is revealing. I'm not as concerned with other peoples' predictions as your views. If you are comfortable with a population of 200m just admit it, you won't be sent to jail.
However I'm not sure your over-inflated ego will cope with much more of this. Regardless of the outcome you have made yourself look increasingly ridiculous.
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Surely the market will sort out out? Too many people = high cost of living and low wages.
Problem is before it becomes painful enough to become a political issue, such as when the median voter starts to squeal, those at the bottom of life's pile will have been getting the shaft for years.
Not that I want to shoot Leavers hopes down in flames but those polls yesterday looked a bit roguey to me. Lots of people were away for the BH weekend (tens of thousands in Cornwall for a start) and the referendum was the last thing on their minds, including mine. Bank Holiday polls are notoriously 'interesting'.
I expect there has been a very small swing to Leave since Thursday (as a function of the campaign coverage on migration and the Leave leaflets hitting the doorstep) but nothing like the 7% swing being cited.
The preceding phone polls were claiming that pensioners were ardent Remainers.
Given that two thirds voted Tory or UKIP last May that always seemed improbable, and I'd hazard a guess that working class Labour pensioners give completely different answers to Labours voting students and Guardianistas.
Any poll where Remain are ahead among pensioners seems fundamentally suspect.
So Mr Meeks and Roger, your holidays are more important than the little people's needs?
The "little people " are going to be right royally screwed if it turns out that the warnings about leaving the EU are correct. Just as they would have been screwed in Scotland if they had listened to the SNP and not the experts in 20I4 and voted for independence.
@PAW I have no idea who you are or why you think my personal life is remotely relevant. Perhaps you could confine yourself to the arguments? Or alternatively, perhaps you could give us a comprehensive rundown of your own life so the rest of us can painstakingly pick over it for imaginary hypocrisies.
Mr. 1000, but if the low wages are high relative to the source country of a given migrant and they're willing to live jam-packed in housing to save money which can be sent home, all that does is harm native workers by driving down wages and raising costs.
Mr. Royale, I agree. There's been too much panic/giddiness over the polls (they were good for Leave, but we're three weeks from the day and two polls do not a referendum victory make).
I'm just teasing him
In any case, it's all a curve, not a step function. If the cost of coming here worsens by 1% there will be a meaningful change in immigration levels.
Mr. Meeks, there are serious problems integrating the current numbers we have coming over. Hence the proliferation of Sharia courts and cultural enclaves. It also affects political judgement to the extent nothing was done about Tower Hamlets for years, and the Rotherham scandal was left alone for over a decade due to fear of upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.
The Immigration you are worrying about there is not EU migration however. Remember, Leave want to get out of the EU's free movement scheme so they can import more curry chefs from South Asia. I'd guess that leaving the EU would result in more immigration from parts of the world that have difficulty integrating here already.
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Surely the market will sort out out? Too many people = high cost of living and low wages.
We're already there. And we've yet to start building the infrastructure to cope.
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Surely the market will sort out out? Too many people = high cost of living and low wages.
Problem is before it becomes painful enough to become a political issue, such as when the median voter starts to squeal, those at the bottom of life's pile will have been getting the shaft for years.
The median voter is about to get shafted as globalisation means that middle class jobs - like auditing and the like - start being done off shore be people in India and the like.
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Surely the market will sort out out? Too many people = high cost of living and low wages.
We're already there. And we've yet to start building the infrastructure to cope.
The behaviour and attitude of our regular Remain posters on this thread this morning demonstrates precisely why they are losing the argument.
Racist!!!!
It's the same on Twitter. It's hilarious. It bounces off us, and smacks them in the face with ladles of ridicule.
Next they'll be calling us paedos.
I had a WWC Remainer talk to me on the train yesterday. He raised the subject (not me) after we'd covered the frustrations we both had with the delayed train journey.
I think he assumed I was a Remainer because I am AB-sounding, was wearing a rucksack, hiking gear and look relatively young.
Him: *two minute rant on visas, with me alternately listening and staring politely at my shoes* "I think Leave are going to win because more than half the country are total fucking idiots."
Me: "Actually, I am voting Leave."
Him: "I can see there are arguments on both sides."
Mr. Observer, the migrant crisis hasn't ended, and something like one and a half million entered the EU last year (over a million to Germany alone). Whilst we're in the EU, their travel is relatively easy [I don't expect a portcullis to fall if we leave, though minimal checks will still help a little]. Not only that, Schengen means they have an easier time reaching the north coast of France [obviously that won't end if we leave, but if our leaving leads to tighter controls or the end of Schengen, that would be beneficial].
We should also outlaw first cousin marriages. The number of Pakistanis flying back over there, marrying their cousin and coming back not only continues and grows enclaves, it's having a material impact on the number of children born with genetic disorders, including learning disabilities.
I agree with you that the EU is only part of the migration issue. The sensible suggestion of Mr. 1000 to have compulsory NHS insurance for overseas workers would reduce financial pressure on our services whilst ensuring those with well-paying jobs can come over here.
Not that I want to shoot Leavers hopes down in flames but those polls yesterday looked a bit roguey to me. Lots of people were away for the BH weekend (tens of thousands in Cornwall for a start) and the referendum was the last thing on their minds, including mine. Bank Holiday polls are notoriously 'interesting'.
I expect there has been a very small swing to Leave since Thursday (as a function of the campaign coverage on migration and the Leave leaflets hitting the doorstep) but nothing like the 7% swing being cited.
That's quite plausible. Then again, if the next phone poll shows a >MoE move to Leave we are going to see Leave heading towards 2.5ish I think.
I agree that we should all stay calm at all times. What's the point of controlling immigration if we are going to cavort like excitable foreigners?
@blackburn63 There are three dimensions and we don't use the third one anywhere near enough. If we used that one more, we wouldn't need to cover the country with more tarmac.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
Prevarication.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
Surely the market will sort out out? Too many people = high cost of living and low wages.
We're already there. And we've yet to start building the infrastructure to cope.
Then people wouldn't be coming here.
Are you telling me that people in the SE don't complain about the cost of living? The people coming here are leaving a far worse situation - who blames them?
It is not our responsibility to support anybody who wishes to live here.
@blackburn63 If you had asked your ancestor in 1801 whether England could support a population nearly seven times that of his time, he would have been horrified at the idea. He could not have conceived of the technological advances that made that possible, and in a way that meant almost all of those people lived life in far more comfort than almost all of the people of his day.
Asking me whether Britain can support a population nearly three times that of today is equally pointless. We simply do not know and cannot conceive what technological advances might take place in the relevant timescale.
I'm happy to speculate even 40 years ahead but I'll leave longer time horizons to those who can't imagine the world ever changing.
I was very certain remain would win, now I have a bit of doubt, not much though. It feels like the day when Yes took the lead in a poll for the Scottish Independence referendum. That was false hope and in part led to the SNP dominance.
The difference this time is that the majority of conservatives for many years have been a euro-sceptic party and their leaders have reflected this , which meant code for leave for many supporters , but in reality the leaders of the party had no intention to leave. As they thought correctly in my opinion that leave had no chance in the UK as a whole in any referendum. The false hope will cause damage and the Cameron/Osborne new labour policies will never have that dominant feeling again.
Cameron’s a secret Leaver. Has to be, the way he’s behaving.
Tell voters you will get a them material renegotiation of our relationship with the EU - tick
Send in a team of Blairite and Brownite cast-offs to do the job - tick
In the end, get fuck all - tick
Insult voters' intelligence by telling them this fuck all is Best. Deal. Ever. - tick
Tell them if you don't believe me, then you will die. Horribly. In a war, or something. - tick
Kudos to the man. He is laying down his credibility for his country.
Alternatively, he could just have said "They aren't listening. They'll never listen. Let's Leave..."
Mr. Meeks, there are serious problems integrating the current numbers we have coming over. Hence the proliferation of Sharia courts and cultural enclaves. It also affects political judgement to the extent nothing was done about Tower Hamlets for years, and the Rotherham scandal was left alone for over a decade due to fear of upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.
It's rather blasé to suggest concern about the rate of immigration is a baseless raving.
Sharia courts are nothing to do with immigration from the EU though.
There's no such thing as "no buyers". There is only the price at which the market clears.
In common parlance, what is suggested is that the pound will decline against a basket of currencies in the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.
That does not sound like an unreasonable forecast to me.
Yes, okay you are correct there is no such thing as no buyers, but a "run" suggests a very significant, very fast fall that is permanent - at least to me it does. A fall in the Pound against major currencies may be expected in the weeks after a Leave vote due to uncertainty. There is also the possibility of a relief rally as the issue has been decided.
Ultimatly, the value of the currency will be set by the fundementals. The fundementals are not Leave/Remain but balance of payments deficit, current account deficit, interest rates, productivity, government credibility and so on. These fundementals will not change in the event of either outcome in the referendum. I think there is little doubt that there will be single market access based upon EFTA or similar.
For those travelling or working abroad Just 23 days till the pound becomes a basket case......
(For those watching Jeremy Kyle ....don't worry about it)
They will not worry about it, if you live from hand to mouth week to week , article 50 and a two year re- negotiation are not your problem. I can not see this been over a General Election turnout , so in one party thiefdoms that have never changed hands in generations many will have the same mindset why bother nothing changes, and they will be correct from their perspective. Which is good for remain as many if they did get angry and got to the polling booth would vote leave.
The problem is that the younger generation who don't think Latvia is a female body part understand the delights of travelling to 28 countries all distict and different to work or play without borders but the older ones who are going to decide this haven't thought it through.
They're still hung up on bananas
How many of those countries even in the event of a BrExit would be more inconvenient than the flash of a passport at immigration ?
Which we have to do anyway, because we aren't in Schengen...
Yes they would. Because what seems like crappy unacceptable services to Brits seems very acceptable to people coming from elsewhere. Most people from a third world country would give their reproductive organs for their children to get a place at even a very mediocre comp in the UK, free healthcare would be a bonus, and a job that pays ten times what they can make at home.
Mr. Wanderer, no, they are caused by enclaves and an unwillingness or inability of our politicians to try and make integration happen.
However, there's over a million recent arrivals in Germany alone. Think they're all going to stay there? The public generally don't engage in politics, but they won't have failed to notice the migrant crisis, and fear we'll get swamped.
That's why the Channel story is so vital for both sides [ahem].
Ultimatly, the value of the currency will be set by the fundementals. The fundementals are not Leave/Remain but balance of payments deficit, current account deficit, interest rates, productivity, government credibility and so on. These fundementals will not change in the event of either outcome in the referendum.
I think there is little doubt that there will be single market access based upon EFTA or similar.
These 2 statements are contradictory.
If leave wins on a message of closed borders, then "single market access based upon EFTA" completely destroys "government credibility"
Mr. Meeks, there are serious problems integrating the current numbers we have coming over. Hence the proliferation of Sharia courts and cultural enclaves. It also affects political judgement to the extent nothing was done about Tower Hamlets for years, and the Rotherham scandal was left alone for over a decade due to fear of upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.
It's rather blasé to suggest concern about the rate of immigration is a baseless raving.
Sharia courts are nothing to do with immigration from the EU though.
Certain areas of Marseilles, the Hague, Molembeek and Paris I'd guess have similiar issues.
So Mr Meeks and Roger, your holidays are more important than the little people's needs?
The "little people " are going to be right royally screwed if it turns out that the warnings about leaving the EU are correct. Just as they would have been screwed in Scotland if they had listened to the SNP and not the experts in 20I4 and voted for independence.
Tell me the "little people" in Spain and Italy and Greece haven't been royally screwed whilst in the EU?
The "little people" get screwed. They are getting-screwed fodder. But I would rather they were getting screwed by a national Govt. they can finally have enough of getting screwed by and boot out, rather than getting screwed by an EU Govt. they can not. I'm a patrician like that.
Mr. P, good luck using that line on those concerned about migration.
Which reminds me, some are worried about Turkey joining (or getting handy travel arrangements without joining). That's less of a concern for me because I just don't think the Turks will join, and travel agreements won't include us.
But it's a genuine worry that Remain isn't addressing. Given Cameron's on record as wanting Turkey in, it's a sticky wicket.
Comments
must be a mistype.
Caroline Lucas to stand for leader with a co-leader (Bartley).
Includes plan for some kind of one-off electoral pact with other parties.
http://www.bartleylucas.com/plan.html
"As Co-Leaders we, therefore, want to fully explore the idea of a one general election only progressive alliance in 2020 in England & Wales, with other political parties of the left. The purpose of such an alliance would be to secure a deal on proportional representation and allow the Green Party’s growing support to translate into a fair number of seats in Westminster and on councils up and down the country."
You say we're nowhere near it needing controlling, but I'm interested to hear how much of the country you would cover in tarmac.
Regardless of the overall outcome I expect Leave to have their best percentages during the day (retired) and Remain from 5.00pm on as working people get home.
In a tight vote Leave would probably be ahead at 5.00pm even if they ultimately lost but I guess it will give them another conspiracy theory to hold onto if they lose - the stab-in-the-back from the bankers!
Liz Kershaw is monstering Frances O'Grady on Sky over her claims. "Aren't the Labour Party doing anything any more?"
https://twitter.com/j30moo/status/737908424948764672
For those travelling or working abroad Just 23 days till the pound becomes a basket case......
(For those watching Jeremy Kyle ....don't worry about it)
It feels like the day when Yes took the lead in a poll for the Scottish Independence referendum.
That was false hope and in part led to the SNP dominance.
The difference this time is that the majority of conservatives for many years have been a euro-sceptic party and their leaders have reflected this , which meant code for leave for many supporters , but in reality the leaders of the party had no intention to leave.
As they thought correctly in my opinion that leave had no chance in the UK as a whole in any referendum.
The false hope will cause damage and the Cameron/Osborne new labour policies will never have that dominant feeling again.
With it being so close, turnout is going to be critical. A wildcard for the day itself surely has to be the weather? Common perception is that poor weather supresses turnout - is this actually true?
If Leave wins, what do we think the polls will look like in the autumn or next year? Would UKIP surge (and at whose expense)? How will Conservative polling hold up - depends on the new leader, the economy, perhaps on the international reaction (a negative reaction could boost their domestic support)?
The new Conservative leader is not going to call an election unless it looks like she would win it. Well, unless she loses a vote of confidence.
I can not see this been over a General Election turnout , so in one party thiefdoms that have never changed hands in generations many will have the same mindset why bother nothing changes, and they will be correct from their perspective. Which is good for remain as many if they did get angry and got to the polling booth would vote leave.
In 5000 BC the population of England was about 6,000. By 1801 the population of England was just under 8 million. in 2011 the population of England was just over 53 million. We have been coping with population growth for millennia and rapid population growth for two centuries. I don't think we've yet reached anything like our conceivable limit just yet.
If Leave wins on a platform of closed borders, the public will not tolerate continued free movement of people "while Boris negotiates"
Any government that wanted to survive would have to get a move on, or be destroyed in an election. It is very unlikely to be an orderly departure.
I suspect things may have moved on. The glorious stewardship of our economy by successive Tory Chancellors has allowed even Labourites to afford cars....
It's the loss of those wonderful 'Easy Rider' freedoms that those of us who live and work in the EU understand so well.
If we do vote leave then the Remain camp need to concentrate their fire on their strategists who may well have fundamentally misread the situation and fallen into the trap of assuming it’s Scotland all over again.
The opinion polls have been saying for YEARS that the British were out of love with the EU. Scottish polls showed nothing of the kind; just four leads for Indy in nearly four years, two of them in the final three weeks of the campaign.
In the end, Scotland only stayed because the pensioners could see the UK government paying their pensions from UK taxes and UK borrowings. Where is the European parallel to that entwinement?
The economic arguments did not work on the Scottish working age population, who were out of love with a country with whom it shared up to 300 years worth of history, language, debt, infrastructure, currency and social welfare policy. Again, why would a British people with considerably less in common and less present and historic entanglement with the EU react more favourably?
Cameron should have known a flimsy renegotiation would not cut it. He needed substantial, tangible reform.
80m, 100m, 200m - when would you cry enough?
How many more schools, hospitals, roads etc do we need to build before you join the majority of the UK who see the rapid rise in population as a problem?
Cameron foresaw the problem, he promised to cut it to sustainable levels.
Your argument, such as it is, is lost.
It's the same on Twitter. It's hilarious. It bounces off us, and smacks them in the face with ladles of ridicule.
Next they'll be calling us paedos.
With regard to the private exit polls, I don't particularly see what advantage this would give an institution. There is no fundemental reason why the Pound should rise or fall on the basis of a remain or leave vote. I would not authorise trades based upon incomplete data about the result of a vote; especially when the market may react in a different way to what I am expecting. If I was betting on a binary outcome (Remain/Leave) then yes, I would see the value in an exit poll; but the value of one currency to another is not a binary assessment.
At the end of the day, the currency's strength or weakness is set by the fundementals which are broadly: interest rates, demand for the currency, balance of payments, current account, government debt & budget and forecast GDP. Let's also not forget that for any currency trade you have another side: so GBP/USD is as much about the Dollar as it is the Pound, GBP/EUR is as much about the Euro as it is about the Pound. The weakness in the Pound is as much to do with high deficit as a % of GDP, ultra low interest rates, low productivity, balance of payments deficit and a fall in the credibility of the government to bring the public finances into order as it is to do with the impact of the referendum.
They're still hung up on bananas
Do you foresee a time when we'll need to manage population numbers: if so when?
How far in the future do you want to look before you admit that your chicken licken terror of other people can be ignored as baseless ravings?
I am saying that I hope leave's arguments are correct; others are pointing out that Leave is focusing in immigration and that there are some holes in their arguments. No-one is calling anyone a racist, as far as I can tell.
In common parlance, what is suggested is that the pound will decline against a basket of currencies in the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.
That does not sound like an unreasonable forecast to me.
Not that I want to shoot Leavers hopes down in flames but those polls yesterday looked a bit roguey to me. Lots of people were away for the BH weekend (tens of thousands in Cornwall for a start) and the referendum was the last thing on their minds, including mine. Bank Holiday polls are notoriously 'interesting'.
I expect there has been a very small swing to Leave since Thursday (as a function of the campaign coverage on migration and the Leave leaflets hitting the doorstep) but nothing like the 7% swing being cited.
It's rather blasé to suggest concern about the rate of immigration is a baseless raving.
Mr. Royale, I agree. There's been too much panic/giddiness over the polls (they were good for Leave, but we're three weeks from the day and two polls do not a referendum victory make).
The culprits know who they are.
I like the points based idea a l'Australia, though RCS' "£5K on the door" (I paraphrase) does look a sensible idea too.
Almost inevitably we would end up with a compromise. Maybe you have the right to live here but only if you can support yourself to a certain level via a job or private means?. The whole problem of EU immigration encapsulates the morphing of a Common Market of 6 (9 when we joined) of fairly equal(ish) Western European economies in a world decades before Ryanair or Wizz, into an economically utterly asymmetric grouping where to tens of millions of Eastern Europeans it makes perfect sense to try their luck when the price of getting back on a cheapy flight is minimal if it doesn't work out. Throw in a European courts system that seemingly refuses to allow us to throw anyone out, English as the de facto lingua franca, and it's not surprising people are living 4 to a room in outer London boroughs and a house in an "average" part of London is nudging half a million. And now we have images of people camped on the cliffs in France waiting to take leaky boats across a cold stormy Channel just to add to the mix.
Juncker et are so wedded to the principle drawn up in 1957 they are seemingly blind (or just don't care) to the actual effects it's having in the world of 2016.
By the way for all the fuss I still expect Remain to squeak it, and what Cameron does from there God knows.
However I'm not sure your over-inflated ego will cope with much more of this. Regardless of the outcome you have made yourself look increasingly ridiculous.
Given that two thirds voted Tory or UKIP last May that always seemed improbable, and I'd hazard a guess that working class Labour pensioners give completely different answers to Labours voting students and Guardianistas.
Any poll where Remain are ahead among pensioners seems fundamentally suspect.
In any case, it's all a curve, not a step function. If the cost of coming here worsens by 1% there will be a meaningful change in immigration levels.
I think he assumed I was a Remainer because I am AB-sounding, was wearing a rucksack, hiking gear and look relatively young.
Him: *two minute rant on visas, with me alternately listening and staring politely at my shoes* "I think Leave are going to win because more than half the country are total fucking idiots."
Me: "Actually, I am voting Leave."
Him: "I can see there are arguments on both sides."
We should also outlaw first cousin marriages. The number of Pakistanis flying back over there, marrying their cousin and coming back not only continues and grows enclaves, it's having a material impact on the number of children born with genetic disorders, including learning disabilities.
I agree with you that the EU is only part of the migration issue. The sensible suggestion of Mr. 1000 to have compulsory NHS insurance for overseas workers would reduce financial pressure on our services whilst ensuring those with well-paying jobs can come over here.
I agree that we should all stay calm at all times. What's the point of controlling immigration if we are going to cavort like excitable foreigners?
It is not our responsibility to support anybody who wishes to live here.
It's easy to get carried away. There are valid reasons on both sides, though for me the balance clearly lies with Leave.
Asking me whether Britain can support a population nearly three times that of today is equally pointless. We simply do not know and cannot conceive what technological advances might take place in the relevant timescale.
I'm happy to speculate even 40 years ahead but I'll leave longer time horizons to those who can't imagine the world ever changing.
http://www.holprop.com/s/sale/HU14985942/1/y/782882237/
Send in a team of Blairite and Brownite cast-offs to do the job - tick
In the end, get fuck all - tick
Insult voters' intelligence by telling them this fuck all is Best. Deal. Ever. - tick
Tell them if you don't believe me, then you will die. Horribly. In a war, or something. - tick
Kudos to the man. He is laying down his credibility for his country.
Alternatively, he could just have said "They aren't listening. They'll never listen. Let's Leave..."
Ultimatly, the value of the currency will be set by the fundementals. The fundementals are not Leave/Remain but balance of payments deficit, current account deficit, interest rates, productivity, government credibility and so on. These fundementals will not change in the event of either outcome in the referendum. I think there is little doubt that there will be single market access based upon EFTA or similar.
19% wanted to retain the existing arrangement.
Just 11% wanted further integration or a single european government.
The BSA is carried out using gold standard random sampling.
However, there's over a million recent arrivals in Germany alone. Think they're all going to stay there? The public generally don't engage in politics, but they won't have failed to notice the migrant crisis, and fear we'll get swamped.
That's why the Channel story is so vital for both sides [ahem].
If leave wins on a message of closed borders, then "single market access based upon EFTA" completely destroys "government credibility"
Mirror
Pro-EU Labour MP declares older white men 'the problem' in the referendum campaign https://t.co/mFBYfk9gVh https://t.co/qo28gu87yj
The "little people" get screwed. They are getting-screwed fodder. But I would rather they were getting screwed by a national Govt. they can finally have enough of getting screwed by and boot out, rather than getting screwed by an EU Govt. they can not. I'm a patrician like that.
Which reminds me, some are worried about Turkey joining (or getting handy travel arrangements without joining). That's less of a concern for me because I just don't think the Turks will join, and travel agreements won't include us.
But it's a genuine worry that Remain isn't addressing. Given Cameron's on record as wanting Turkey in, it's a sticky wicket.
Anyone got a link?
BREAKING: #EU Court now ordering UK to increase VAT on green products including insulation materials and boiler controls from 5% to 20%.