Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The uncertainty principle. A step by step guide to handling

1235

Comments

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Just in case anyone thought the US election wasn't loopy enough.

    'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”'

    http://tinyurl.com/hxm6nn8

    A satirical publication, no?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    RodCrosby said:

    I've seen a projection of Van Der Bellen by 1500...

    Van der Bellen...'with a silent d...'?
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    Mr Divvie,

    'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”

    Not sure that will make much difference. It will only solidify the supporters and antis. It might even help with a few Bernie supporters unsure how to switch.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Oh let it be Osborne.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,149

    On the Treasury report, I think the 'Shock' scenario looks pretty realistic as a central forecast. The 'Severe shock' scenario is what I would regard at the worst case - possible, but less than a 10% chance of it being as bad as that.

    It's pure politics, and full of the same assumptions that the UK could not do what the EU might, but the table at the top of P.46 is interesting. The "shock" scenario shows growth of -0.1% for 4 quarters (neatly qualifying - just - as a technical recession) and then returning to growth at the end of 2017. Meanwhile it is assumed we'll otherwise grow at 0.5%:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

    That doesn't even compare to the 1992 recession - in fact, it's just stalled growth for a couple of years - and, given that contingency plans and policy instruments would rapidly appear out of the woodwork if we did vote to Leave, would be an entirely manageable level of risk.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,115

    Just in case anyone thought the US election wasn't loopy enough.

    'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”'

    http://tinyurl.com/hxm6nn8

    It's a fake viral story.

    Interesting that people found it believable.
  • Options

    JackW said:

    This is very amusing archeology

    George is just so...

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734694058552131584

    You must have forgotten to post that during the general election campaign .... :smile:
    Yes Plato was quite happy to go out on the streets of East Sussex peddling those lies on behalf of the Conservative Party .
    How do you know what Plato was saying on the streets of East Sussex? Were you there at the same time?
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    RobD said:

    Oops

    Alex Wickham

    Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS

    Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
    Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Politics_co_uk: The reasons the Leave campaign are losing the EU referendum https://t.co/yqtdJLQvhH
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,705
    edited May 2016

    Just in case anyone thought the US election wasn't loopy enough.

    'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”'

    http://tinyurl.com/hxm6nn8

    A satirical publication, no?
    Ah, perhaps I should have dug a little further!

    'ABOUT US
    World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.

    Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'

    Quite convincingly done in that instance.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    At present strike rates, if the PVs are more than 692,300 VDB wins.

    I guess they don't know how many valid ballots there are until they've counted them...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/734716285553135620
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,888
    JohnO said:

    RobD said:

    Oops

    Alex Wickham

    Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS

    Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
    Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
    It's obvious that Crick reported the information he had thinking he was being clever - not working out that the chances were every party pulled the same tricks...
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    Mr L,

    "haven't they just found salt might be harmless after all?"

    Not quite. But the first rule of toxicology is "The dose makes the poison."

    Copyright - Paracelsus (16th century).
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,227

    Just in case anyone thought the US election wasn't loopy enough.

    'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”'

    http://tinyurl.com/hxm6nn8

    A satirical publication, no?
    Ah, perhaps I should have dug a little further!

    'ABOUT US
    World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.

    Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'

    Quite convincingly done in that instance.
    Their section on the Clair Ridge oil field was enlightening... :D
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    Mr Glenn,

    "It's a fake viral story."

    Oh well. But she is a bit dull otherwise.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,194
    Found a news site linking to a screenshot of a ticker, without an actual link >.>
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,482
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,604
    edited May 2016
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
    Somebody call David Boies and Ted Olson
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,395
    430,000 postal ballots counted so far - Van Bellen 60.4% Hofer 39.6% #Austria #Election #Hofer #vdb

    Closing in on victory
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    https://twitter.com/Marthakearney/status/734716429816070146

    Brexit's now going to kill the whole world..
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,227

    https://twitter.com/Marthakearney/status/734716429816070146

    Brexit's now going to kill the whole world..

    Only the developing world....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,194

    430,000 postal ballots counted so far - Van Bellen 60.4% Hofer 39.6% #Austria #Election #Hofer #vdb

    Closing in on victory

    89440 - 144006 = 54506 behind.

    Given 330 - 430k didn't change the result, I'd expect a VDB win from here.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    nunu said:

    like Scotland....but Scotland is worse.

    Except Scotland is already passed peak SNP

    They didn't win a majority. Support for another referendum is on the wane, and there won't be one this Parliament anyway
    A peak at 47% is a very high peak and I don't see SNP plus Green support falling, inpendence parties won a majority in sp16...the country is deeply divided I remember when Independence couldn't get more than a about a third to support them now Scotland is split in half.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,149

    Oh let it be Osborne.
    I think most Tory Remainers and Leavers on here know Osborne is not the answer.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,227
    JohnO said:

    RobD said:

    Oops

    Alex Wickham

    Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS

    Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
    Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
    How did he ever slime his way into such a position? Ugh..
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    JackW said:

    This is very amusing archeology

    George is just so...

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734694058552131584

    You must have forgotten to post that during the general election campaign .... :smile:
    Yes Plato was quite happy to go out on the streets of East Sussex peddling those lies on behalf of the Conservative Party .
    How do you know what Plato was saying on the streets of East Sussex? Were you there at the same time?
    I've long presumed Mr Senior has a nasty case of gout. Plus dyspepsia.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,327
    Scott_P said:
    Complacency all over the place from Remain. What a disaster when their vote doesn't bother to turn out.

    "Oddly, one thing that should worry Mr Cameron and friends is that consensus that they’re going to win. If you think Remain has it in the bag, there isn’t any real risk of Brexit and the economic apocalypse that Mr Cameron says would follow, so it is it really so important to vote?"

    Kirkup in Telegraph.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,604
    RobD said:

    JohnO said:

    RobD said:

    Oops

    Alex Wickham

    Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS

    Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
    Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
    How did he ever slime his way into such a position? Ugh..
    They say he was very effective at his jobs.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,705
    edited May 2016
    RobD said:

    Just in case anyone thought the US election wasn't loopy enough.

    'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”'

    http://tinyurl.com/hxm6nn8

    A satirical publication, no?
    Ah, perhaps I should have dug a little further!

    'ABOUT US
    World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.

    Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'

    Quite convincingly done in that instance.
    Their section on the Clair Ridge oil field was enlightening... :D
    In what sense?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    The downside of campaigning for Remain is that it has turned me into a Francophile until the 23rd of June.

    The shame. THE SHAME!

    Ashamed is what you should be. Mr. Eagles. A white rose as your avatar and yet your text is Francophile. Taking the side of France? There are limits, you know.

    Hopefully next month you will come back to your senses and once again understand who our main enemy really is.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scott_P said:
    What do we get from the photo Scott,useless Tories ?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,917

    Corbyn, the gift that keeps on giving for the Tories

    Footage has emerged of Jeremy Corbyn applauding the leader of the Communist Party of Britain for refusing to toast the Queen

    http://order-order.com/2016/05/23/corbyn-clapped-commie-leader-for-refusing-to-toast-the-queen/

    It is pretty weak from Staines...however, you can imagine the attack vids that the Tories will pump out of Corbyn talking about friends, sitting next, applauding, etc etc etc pretty much every nutter under the sun. Terrorists, check, Communists, check, Anarchists, check, Maoists, check, Marxists, checks, Trots, check...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,194
    "arschknapp"
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Complacency all over the place from Remain.

    Ummm, it's Brexiteers that have been trumpeting failure for days

    Farage is talking about "the next time" and SeanT says "winning is the poison that will kill Remainers"
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    https://twitter.com/Marthakearney/status/734716429816070146

    Brexit's now going to kill the whole world..

    A true anecdote. An unnamed banker when asked why he favoured the UK staying in the EU could only offer up that it makes it easier for his son to teaching surfing in France.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
    Florida was ~500 votes in ~6 million. About a hundreth of one percent.

    Unlikely to be that close.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,149

    https://twitter.com/Marthakearney/status/734716429816070146

    Brexit's now going to kill the whole world..

    For Steve Hilton, the warnings of apocalypse from the IMF, CBI, OECD, World Bank and Civil Service are his biggest reasons for voting Leave.

    Their whole world depends on it.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    JackW said:

    This is very amusing archeology

    George is just so...

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734694058552131584

    You must have forgotten to post that during the general election campaign .... :smile:
    Yes Plato was quite happy to go out on the streets of East Sussex peddling those lies on behalf of the Conservative Party .
    How do you know what Plato was saying on the streets of East Sussex? Were you there at the same time?
    I've long presumed Mr Senior has a nasty case of gout. Plus dyspepsia.
    Well I did not go out campaigning to elect Cameron and Osborne a year ago and turn round a year later calling them traitors and worse . someone who does that has more serious issues than gout and dyspepsia
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Hofer slipping back.

    If PVs > 649000, at present strike rates VDB wins...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,917
    edited May 2016
    ISIS nope, Putin / Russian, nope, China, nope....Britain moving to a trade model similar to Norway or Switzerland yeap thats the one..
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    John Mills
    http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1somt3n

    Today John Mills, Chair of Labour Leave, responded to a report suggesting that housing prices could be harmed by the UK leaving the EU.

    The report was jointly commissioned by the Association of Residential Letting Agents and the National Association of Estate Agent.

    John Mills, Chair of Labour Leave, said:

    "Clearly, the pro-EU camp is having a difficult time. Those doom-mongers have warned that house prices in the UK may fall if we leave the EU. That's quite possible but surely from many points of view should be welcomed.

    "House prices in the UK have been pumped up by uncontrollable, open-door migration and lack of supply. The housing crisis has left hundreds of thousands of people in the UK, especially those at the bottom of the economic ladder, with poor-quality, expensive housing. The fact that people in favour of Remain think it has to be a bad thing for house prices to fall shows us exactly who they're speaking for -- monied business elites.

    "Leaving the EU is the most sensible choice for left-leaning voters who want to secure a better future for Britain's most disadvantaged people.”
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,604



    The downside of campaigning for Remain is that it has turned me into a Francophile until the 23rd of June.

    The shame. THE SHAME!

    Ashamed is what you should be. Mr. Eagles. A white rose as your avatar and yet your text is Francophile. Taking the side of France? There are limits, you know.

    Hopefully next month you will come back to your senses and once again understand who our main enemy really is.
    Well June contains the anniversaries of Waterloo and Operation Overlord, that'll douse my Francophilia and allow me to mock the French
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    Because Gove has said we aren't going to be joining the EEA?

    "Thanks to Michael Gove we know that Britain's future outside the EU would also be outside the single market.

    So we can rule out our future looking like Norway or Iceland: both outside the EU but both members of the European Economic Area which pay for access to the single market and accept free movement of workers.

    Vote Leave's future plan for the UK would be outside the EU and outside the EEA."

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-04-19/michael-gove-says-britains-future-outside-the-eu-would-also-be-outside-the-single-market-but-what-does-that-mean/
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,857

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    Because the chairman of VL told us we want to take control of immigration?
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Final result imminent....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,604

    Corbyn, the gift that keeps on giving for the Tories

    Footage has emerged of Jeremy Corbyn applauding the leader of the Communist Party of Britain for refusing to toast the Queen

    http://order-order.com/2016/05/23/corbyn-clapped-commie-leader-for-refusing-to-toast-the-queen/

    It is pretty weak from Staines...however, you can imagine the attack vids that the Tories will pump out of Corbyn talking about friends, sitting next, applauding, etc etc etc pretty much every nutter under the sun. Terrorists, check, Communists, check, Anarchists, check, Maoists, check, Marxists, checks, Trots, check...
    On its own, it isn't much, but as a pattern....

    The early focus groups on Ed Miliband had him down as the weirdo that stabbed his brother in the back.

    The early focus groups on Corbyn were he didn't sing the national anthem and hates the Queen.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,115
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/22/20160522_trump2.png

    The demographic breakdown in the Clinton-Trump poll still has a startling lead for Clinton with African-Americans. I find it hard to believe she will be able to defend that gap against a candidate making a concerted play for those votes.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
    Leave is some sort of strange Quantum campaign where all options are possible even when mutually contradictory.

    Their plan seems to be vote out and then let Cameron sort out the mess.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,115

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
    Perhaps because the government has called a referendum which opens the possibility of the UK needing to find an optimal arrangement outside the EU and EEA being one of the most obvious and least painful options? The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,705

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/22/20160522_trump2.png

    The demographic breakdown in the Clinton-Trump poll still has a startling lead for Clinton with African-Americans. I find it hard to believe she will be able to defend that gap against a candidate making a concerted play for those votes.

    'Daddy was a Klansman' might have some currency.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,115
    JonathanD said:


    Their plan seems to be vote out and then let Cameron sort out the mess.

    I'm a Remainer but I can't fault that plan. The government called the vote and the government will have to deal with the result.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,917
    edited May 2016

    Corbyn, the gift that keeps on giving for the Tories

    Footage has emerged of Jeremy Corbyn applauding the leader of the Communist Party of Britain for refusing to toast the Queen

    http://order-order.com/2016/05/23/corbyn-clapped-commie-leader-for-refusing-to-toast-the-queen/

    It is pretty weak from Staines...however, you can imagine the attack vids that the Tories will pump out of Corbyn talking about friends, sitting next, applauding, etc etc etc pretty much every nutter under the sun. Terrorists, check, Communists, check, Anarchists, check, Maoists, check, Marxists, checks, Trots, check...
    On its own, it isn't much, but as a pattern....

    The early focus groups on Ed Miliband had him down as the weirdo that stabbed his brother in the back.

    The early focus groups on Corbyn were he didn't sing the national anthem and hates the Queen.
    Absolutely...and there is no doubt it is true. Miliband was weird, but certainly was exaggerated. Lots of politicians are a bit odd to say the least. However, with Corbyn the press haven't even got started yet.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
    2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
    The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
    Michael Gove the leader of Leave has said that a vote for Leave means not joining the EEA. I don't think you can get a clearer statement of intent than that. If leave have no authority then perhaps Cameron should just say that the optimal arrangement is to stay a member of the EU since Leave don't seem to have the courage of their convictions.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    JonathanD said:

    Asa Bennett
    Great @EdConwaySky
    blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R

    See what you think of it.

    What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
    The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
    Michael Gove the leader of Leave has said that a vote for Leave means not joining the EEA. I don't think you can get a clearer statement of intent than that. If leave have no authority then perhaps Cameron should just say that the optimal arrangement is to stay a member of the EU since Leave don't seem to have the courage of their convictions.
    This post really wasn't worth the three seconds of your life it took to fart out, was it?
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    B

    Scott_P said:

    Cameron isn't doing what it said on the tin.

    Winning?
    Giving us a referendum ?
    Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
    They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
    That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.

    If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
    The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
    Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.

    If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.

    Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
    Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron.
    Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.

    Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?

    He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    midwinter said:

    the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader.

    And yet the Brexiteers pine for the heady days of IDS...
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,498
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:

    The Personal Independence Dividend.

    Worth nearly as much as Scottish Oil!

    Oh...
    Unfortunately for Remain, the money exists and we all know it.
    Scott is too stupid to realise that
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,364

    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
    It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Apparently, it's 'morally wrong" to vote Brexit according to Cameron today.

    Ho hum, a life of vice for me then
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Hofer just announced he will not comment until tomorrow...
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,482
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
    2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
    Pah! We're the same age and I can (just about) remember Major winning in 1992.
  • Options
    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Norm said:

    https://twitter.com/Marthakearney/status/734716429816070146

    Brexit's now going to kill the whole world..

    A true anecdote. An unnamed banker when asked why he favoured the UK staying in the EU could only offer up that it makes it easier for his son to teaching surfing in France.
    And yet British ski instructors have been arrested for teaching skiing In France:

    http://www.inthesnow.com/french-legal-action-british-instructors-alps/

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,857
    edited May 2016
    There is an official Leave campaign nominated (call it government appointed) and that official Leave campaign has told us that there ain't gonna be no single market.

    This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.

    No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    B

    Scott_P said:

    Cameron isn't doing what it said on the tin.

    Winning?
    Giving us a referendum ?
    Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
    They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
    That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.

    If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
    The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
    Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.

    If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.

    Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
    Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron.
    Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.

    Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?

    He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.

    You can repeat it as much as you like - it is still meaningless whataboutery. You have no clue whether the Tories could have won outright with a right wing leader - their most successful election winning leader of modern times was right wing. And she did it against a background of 30 years of left wing political consensus. That was because she had convictions; she wanted to get into power to get things done, not because she thought she'd be 'rather good at it'.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    SNIP

    Oh dear, the turnips have woken up. Well it is after 1pm

    More sleaze enveloping the Nats, what distractions do the Zoomers have planned for today?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,498

    midwinter said:

    B

    Scott_P said:

    Cameron isn't doing what it said on the tin.

    Winning?
    Giving us a referendum ?
    Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
    They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
    That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.

    If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
    Two cheeks of the same arse Hurst. Pair of flappers punting CCHQ codswallop badly.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,364

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    B

    Scott_P said:

    Cameron isn't doing what it said on the tin.

    Winning?
    Giving us a referendum ?
    Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
    They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
    That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.

    If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
    The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
    Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.

    If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.

    Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
    Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron.
    Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.

    Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?

    He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.

    You can repeat it as much as you like - it is still meaningless whataboutery. You have no clue whether the Tories could have won outright with a right wing leader - their most successful election winning leader of modern times was right wing. And she did it against a background of 30 years of left wing political consensus. That was because she had convictions; she wanted to get into power to get things done, not because she thought she'd be 'rather good at it'.
    Obviously, it would depend on who the Leader was.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
    It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
    I can see a recount coming
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Perhaps because the government has called a referendum which opens the possibility of the UK needing to find an optimal arrangement outside the EU and EEA being one of the most obvious and least painful options? The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.

    In that case the Leave campaign should make that clear. As it is, voters might be conned into a Leave vote thinking that they are voting for, you know, what the Leave campaign says they'd be voting for - which is 100% certainly not the EEA option.

    Instead, to give the Leavers their due, they did - finally, about four years too late - get round to specifying what they were asking voters to vote for. It's a bit rich to complain that it is unfair that they are being believed.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
    2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
    Pah! We're the same age and I can (just about) remember Major winning in 1992.
    I remember the euphoria of Tony Blair (though not in my household) and my parents talking about our local MP getting shitcanned (Portillo) but before that my earliest memory of significance was Baggio missing the penalty in the WC. I have vague recollections of Mrs Thatcher getting awfully cross at BA for putting awful liveries on their planes.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    B

    Scott_P said:

    Cameron isn't doing what it said on the tin.

    Winning?
    Giving us a referendum ?
    Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
    They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
    That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.

    If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
    The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
    Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.

    If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.

    Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
    Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron.
    Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.

    Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?

    He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.

    I don't see anybody complaining that Cameron gave us a referendum, his popularity ratings suggest he hasn't conducted himself with much dignity or integrity since.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,857

    Perhaps because the government has called a referendum which opens the possibility of the UK needing to find an optimal arrangement outside the EU and EEA being one of the most obvious and least painful options? The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.

    In that case the Leave campaign should make that clear. As it is, voters might be conned into a Leave vote thinking that they are voting for, you know, what the Leave campaign says they'd be voting for - which is 100% certainly not the EEA option.

    Instead, to give the Leavers their due, they did - finally, about four years too late - get round to specifying what they were asking voters to vote for. It's a bit rich to complain that it is unfair that they are being believed.
    So far we have had the Leavers not trusting a future government to make the right decision regarding Turkey.

    And now they don't trust it not to violate the official Leave campaign's position on the UK's post-EU status.

    Almost as if they are infuriated that the people are getting it wrong each time.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,194

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
    It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
    I can see a recount coming
    I still can't believe none of the Austrian news is linking to the actual count breakdown.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,149
    @Plato - didn't you get the memo?

    The Treasury is a neutral, objective and unbiased source.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,395

    @Plato - didn't you get the memo?

    The Treasury is a neutral, objective and unbiased source.

    It is an impartial source. It is not and never has been a neutral source.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.

    Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
    2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
    Pah! We're the same age and I can (just about) remember Major winning in 1992.
    I remember the euphoria of Tony Blair (though not in my household) and my parents talking about our local MP getting shitcanned (Portillo) but before that my earliest memory of significance was Baggio missing the penalty in the WC. I have vague recollections of Mrs Thatcher getting awfully cross at BA for putting awful liveries on their planes.
    I can remember badgering my parents to vote in the last referendum. I was 8.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,115
    RodCrosby said:

    Hofer just announced he will not comment until tomorrow...

    Let's hope that doesn't go the same way as Ken Livingstone's 'no comment' promise or things could get ugly.
  • Options
    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 739

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
    It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
    I can see a recount coming
    From translating Austrian media sources, with 50% of postals counted, the projection would be VdB to win by 2000 overall, he needs 61% of the postals to win I think!
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    edited May 2016
    TOPPING said:

    There is an official Leave campaign nominated (call it government appointed) and that official Leave campaign has told us that there ain't gonna be no single market.

    This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.

    No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".

    This is pitiful nonsense.

    Leave's official designation carries absolutely no policy-making brief, and to try and suggest so on a forum of reasonably savvy political posters is simply absurd.

    What Leave *should* be doing in my opinion is providing information on the various scenarios following a Leave vote, and if a voter's least preferred scenario (presumably WTO, 4% on the price of brie etc.) seems a more fearful consequence than a few more decades in the EU, vote to Remain.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
    It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
    I can see a recount coming
    I still can't believe none of the Austrian news is linking to the actual count breakdown.
    It seems mad here when one considers that the London election had a live updates website which refreshed information every 5-7 minutes.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    @Plato - didn't you get the memo?

    The Treasury is a neutral, objective and unbiased source.

    It is an impartial source. It is not and never has been a neutral source.
    So impartial that the government saw fit to create the OBR in 2010?
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Hofer just announced he will not comment until tomorrow...

    Let's hope that doesn't go the same way as Ken Livingstone's 'no comment' promise or things could get ugly.
    Probably waiting to see if a recount is feasible, or for reports of malpractice (if any) to come in...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,857

    TOPPING said:

    There is an official Leave campaign nominated (call it government appointed) and that official Leave campaign has told us that there ain't gonna be no single market.

    This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.

    No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".

    This is pitiful nonsense.

    Leave's official designation carries absolutely no policy-making brief, and to try and suggest so on a forum of reasonably savvy political posters is simply absurd.

    What Leave *should* be doing in my opinion is providing information on the various scenarios following a Leave vote, and if a voter's least preferred scenario (presumably WTO, 4% on the price of brie etc.) seems a more fearful consequence than a few more decades in the EU, vote to Remain.
    So it's not doing what either you or I think it should be doing. Genius.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Hofer just announced he will not comment until tomorrow...

    Let's hope that doesn't go the same way as Ken Livingstone's 'no comment' promise or things could get ugly.
    Probably waiting to see if a recount is feasible, or for reports of malpractice (if any) to come in...
    If it's a draw they re-run the vote.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,498
    nunu said:

    Looking ahead to June 24th there'll be absolute rage regardless of the outcome. If Leave win the Remainers will be apoplectic, set on revenge. If Remain win Leave will be gutted, but Remain will have to eat an awful lot of humble pie to charm back voters they offended.

    The political landscape has changed forever, factions have appeared that won't be reconciled.

    like Scotland....but Scotland is worse.
    what is worse in Scotland, hatred of Tories?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,395
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    @Plato - didn't you get the memo?

    The Treasury is a neutral, objective and unbiased source.

    It is an impartial source. It is not and never has been a neutral source.
    So impartial that the government saw fit to create the OBR in 2010?
    Exactly Max! The civil service is supposed to support the work of the government. The creation of the OBR was to allow the OBR greater freedom to report bad news for the government, if necessary.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Final result imminent....



    Status at 14.13 European time

    Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent

    Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent

    AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
    It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
    I can see a recount coming
    From translating Austrian media sources, with 50% of postals counted, the projection would be VdB to win by 2000 overall, he needs 61% of the postals to win I think!
    Is it understood why the postal ballots break preferentially for vdB ?

    With a large sample, why do the postal ballots show a different trend to the entire population from which they are drawn?

    I can imagine some correlations -- elderly voters might be more likely to have postal ballots, or voters in very remote Alpine areas. But, those trends would seem to me to favour Hofer rather than vdB ?

    If Vienna were over-represenetd in the postal ballots, then vdB would be favoured -- but why should Vienna be over-represented?

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    what is worse in Scotland, hatred of Tories?

    But you said there would be no Scottish Tory Surge Malky.

    Turnip :)
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2016

    <troll mode>
    Of course, in the EEA option we wouldn't have a veto on Turkey joining the EU, giving rights to their citizens to come here.
    </troll mode>
This discussion has been closed.