'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”
Not sure that will make much difference. It will only solidify the supporters and antis. It might even help with a few Bernie supporters unsure how to switch.
On the Treasury report, I think the 'Shock' scenario looks pretty realistic as a central forecast. The 'Severe shock' scenario is what I would regard at the worst case - possible, but less than a 10% chance of it being as bad as that.
It's pure politics, and full of the same assumptions that the UK could not do what the EU might, but the table at the top of P.46 is interesting. The "shock" scenario shows growth of -0.1% for 4 quarters (neatly qualifying - just - as a technical recession) and then returning to growth at the end of 2017. Meanwhile it is assumed we'll otherwise grow at 0.5%:
That doesn't even compare to the 1992 recession - in fact, it's just stalled growth for a couple of years - and, given that contingency plans and policy instruments would rapidly appear out of the woodwork if we did vote to Leave, would be an entirely manageable level of risk.
Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS
Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
'ABOUT US World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.
Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'
Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS
Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
It's obvious that Crick reported the information he had thinking he was being clever - not working out that the chances were every party pulled the same tricks...
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
'ABOUT US World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.
Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'
Quite convincingly done in that instance.
Their section on the Clair Ridge oil field was enlightening...
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
They didn't win a majority. Support for another referendum is on the wane, and there won't be one this Parliament anyway
A peak at 47% is a very high peak and I don't see SNP plus Green support falling, inpendence parties won a majority in sp16...the country is deeply divided I remember when Independence couldn't get more than a about a third to support them now Scotland is split in half.
Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS
Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
How did he ever slime his way into such a position? Ugh..
Complacency all over the place from Remain. What a disaster when their vote doesn't bother to turn out.
"Oddly, one thing that should worry Mr Cameron and friends is that consensus that they’re going to win. If you think Remain has it in the bag, there isn’t any real risk of Brexit and the economic apocalypse that Mr Cameron says would follow, so it is it really so important to vote?"
Would be awful if an MP called the cops on another party and then landed his own party in it. https://t.co/gSFf9TBecS
Makes you wonder why Crick only focussed on the Tories.
Something I read (Guido) was that Crick was being fed stuff by Mark Clarke, who ran the Tory Battlebus and was subsequently at the storm of alleged bullying and other unpleasantness.
How did he ever slime his way into such a position? Ugh..
'ABOUT US World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.
Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'
Quite convincingly done in that instance.
Their section on the Clair Ridge oil field was enlightening...
The downside of campaigning for Remain is that it has turned me into a Francophile until the 23rd of June.
The shame. THE SHAME!
Ashamed is what you should be. Mr. Eagles. A white rose as your avatar and yet your text is Francophile. Taking the side of France? There are limits, you know.
Hopefully next month you will come back to your senses and once again understand who our main enemy really is.
It is pretty weak from Staines...however, you can imagine the attack vids that the Tories will pump out of Corbyn talking about friends, sitting next, applauding, etc etc etc pretty much every nutter under the sun. Terrorists, check, Communists, check, Anarchists, check, Maoists, check, Marxists, checks, Trots, check...
A true anecdote. An unnamed banker when asked why he favoured the UK staying in the EU could only offer up that it makes it easier for his son to teaching surfing in France.
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
Florida was ~500 votes in ~6 million. About a hundreth of one percent.
You must have forgotten to post that during the general election campaign ....
Yes Plato was quite happy to go out on the streets of East Sussex peddling those lies on behalf of the Conservative Party .
How do you know what Plato was saying on the streets of East Sussex? Were you there at the same time?
I've long presumed Mr Senior has a nasty case of gout. Plus dyspepsia.
Well I did not go out campaigning to elect Cameron and Osborne a year ago and turn round a year later calling them traitors and worse . someone who does that has more serious issues than gout and dyspepsia
Today John Mills, Chair of Labour Leave, responded to a report suggesting that housing prices could be harmed by the UK leaving the EU.
The report was jointly commissioned by the Association of Residential Letting Agents and the National Association of Estate Agent.
John Mills, Chair of Labour Leave, said:
"Clearly, the pro-EU camp is having a difficult time. Those doom-mongers have warned that house prices in the UK may fall if we leave the EU. That's quite possible but surely from many points of view should be welcomed.
"House prices in the UK have been pumped up by uncontrollable, open-door migration and lack of supply. The housing crisis has left hundreds of thousands of people in the UK, especially those at the bottom of the economic ladder, with poor-quality, expensive housing. The fact that people in favour of Remain think it has to be a bad thing for house prices to fall shows us exactly who they're speaking for -- monied business elites.
"Leaving the EU is the most sensible choice for left-leaning voters who want to secure a better future for Britain's most disadvantaged people.”
The downside of campaigning for Remain is that it has turned me into a Francophile until the 23rd of June.
The shame. THE SHAME!
Ashamed is what you should be. Mr. Eagles. A white rose as your avatar and yet your text is Francophile. Taking the side of France? There are limits, you know.
Hopefully next month you will come back to your senses and once again understand who our main enemy really is.
Well June contains the anniversaries of Waterloo and Operation Overlord, that'll douse my Francophilia and allow me to mock the French
Because Gove has said we aren't going to be joining the EEA?
"Thanks to Michael Gove we know that Britain's future outside the EU would also be outside the single market.
So we can rule out our future looking like Norway or Iceland: both outside the EU but both members of the European Economic Area which pay for access to the single market and accept free movement of workers.
Vote Leave's future plan for the UK would be outside the EU and outside the EEA."
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
It is pretty weak from Staines...however, you can imagine the attack vids that the Tories will pump out of Corbyn talking about friends, sitting next, applauding, etc etc etc pretty much every nutter under the sun. Terrorists, check, Communists, check, Anarchists, check, Maoists, check, Marxists, checks, Trots, check...
On its own, it isn't much, but as a pattern....
The early focus groups on Ed Miliband had him down as the weirdo that stabbed his brother in the back.
The early focus groups on Corbyn were he didn't sing the national anthem and hates the Queen.
The demographic breakdown in the Clinton-Trump poll still has a startling lead for Clinton with African-Americans. I find it hard to believe she will be able to defend that gap against a candidate making a concerted play for those votes.
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
Leave is some sort of strange Quantum campaign where all options are possible even when mutually contradictory.
Their plan seems to be vote out and then let Cameron sort out the mess.
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
Perhaps because the government has called a referendum which opens the possibility of the UK needing to find an optimal arrangement outside the EU and EEA being one of the most obvious and least painful options? The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
The demographic breakdown in the Clinton-Trump poll still has a startling lead for Clinton with African-Americans. I find it hard to believe she will be able to defend that gap against a candidate making a concerted play for those votes.
It is pretty weak from Staines...however, you can imagine the attack vids that the Tories will pump out of Corbyn talking about friends, sitting next, applauding, etc etc etc pretty much every nutter under the sun. Terrorists, check, Communists, check, Anarchists, check, Maoists, check, Marxists, checks, Trots, check...
On its own, it isn't much, but as a pattern....
The early focus groups on Ed Miliband had him down as the weirdo that stabbed his brother in the back.
The early focus groups on Corbyn were he didn't sing the national anthem and hates the Queen.
Absolutely...and there is no doubt it is true. Miliband was weird, but certainly was exaggerated. Lots of politicians are a bit odd to say the least. However, with Corbyn the press haven't even got started yet.
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
Michael Gove the leader of Leave has said that a vote for Leave means not joining the EEA. I don't think you can get a clearer statement of intent than that. If leave have no authority then perhaps Cameron should just say that the optimal arrangement is to stay a member of the EU since Leave don't seem to have the courage of their convictions.
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
Michael Gove the leader of Leave has said that a vote for Leave means not joining the EEA. I don't think you can get a clearer statement of intent than that. If leave have no authority then perhaps Cameron should just say that the optimal arrangement is to stay a member of the EU since Leave don't seem to have the courage of their convictions.
This post really wasn't worth the three seconds of your life it took to fart out, was it?
Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.
If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.
If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.
Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron. Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.
Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?
He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
Pah! We're the same age and I can (just about) remember Major winning in 1992.
A true anecdote. An unnamed banker when asked why he favoured the UK staying in the EU could only offer up that it makes it easier for his son to teaching surfing in France.
And yet British ski instructors have been arrested for teaching skiing In France:
There is an official Leave campaign nominated (call it government appointed) and that official Leave campaign has told us that there ain't gonna be no single market.
This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.
No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".
Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.
If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.
If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.
Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron. Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.
Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?
He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.
You can repeat it as much as you like - it is still meaningless whataboutery. You have no clue whether the Tories could have won outright with a right wing leader - their most successful election winning leader of modern times was right wing. And she did it against a background of 30 years of left wing political consensus. That was because she had convictions; she wanted to get into power to get things done, not because she thought she'd be 'rather good at it'.
Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.
If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
Two cheeks of the same arse Hurst. Pair of flappers punting CCHQ codswallop badly.
Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.
If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.
If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.
Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron. Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.
Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?
He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.
You can repeat it as much as you like - it is still meaningless whataboutery. You have no clue whether the Tories could have won outright with a right wing leader - their most successful election winning leader of modern times was right wing. And she did it against a background of 30 years of left wing political consensus. That was because she had convictions; she wanted to get into power to get things done, not because she thought she'd be 'rather good at it'.
Perhaps because the government has called a referendum which opens the possibility of the UK needing to find an optimal arrangement outside the EU and EEA being one of the most obvious and least painful options? The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
In that case the Leave campaign should make that clear. As it is, voters might be conned into a Leave vote thinking that they are voting for, you know, what the Leave campaign says they'd be voting for - which is 100% certainly not the EEA option.
Instead, to give the Leavers their due, they did - finally, about four years too late - get round to specifying what they were asking voters to vote for. It's a bit rich to complain that it is unfair that they are being believed.
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
Pah! We're the same age and I can (just about) remember Major winning in 1992.
I remember the euphoria of Tony Blair (though not in my household) and my parents talking about our local MP getting shitcanned (Portillo) but before that my earliest memory of significance was Baggio missing the penalty in the WC. I have vague recollections of Mrs Thatcher getting awfully cross at BA for putting awful liveries on their planes.
Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
That may be true, Mr. Eagles, but I suggest to you that most people who favour leaving the EU are perfectly rational, have looked at the facts and made their decision accordingly.
If you, and Mr Scott_P, are unable to accept that and feel you have to label people as irrational, headbangers and all the rest of the dreary insults that are regularly trotted out on this site then that is, I am afraid, a reflection of your problems.
The hatred towards the man who delivered the referendum is not rational. Its religious in its fervour and unattractive.
Perhaps because there is considerable overlap between religious beliefs and political beliefs.
If a leader of a religion becomes a heretic, you'd expect a furious reaction.
Incidentally, how is the opprobrium vented on Cameron any different to that vented on Reckless by some on this board?
Reckless was treacherous, timed his resignation and by election to cause a lot of damage to the Tories and Cameron. Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.
Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?
He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.
I don't see anybody complaining that Cameron gave us a referendum, his popularity ratings suggest he hasn't conducted himself with much dignity or integrity since.
Perhaps because the government has called a referendum which opens the possibility of the UK needing to find an optimal arrangement outside the EU and EEA being one of the most obvious and least painful options? The Leave campaign has no authority to rule anything in or out.
In that case the Leave campaign should make that clear. As it is, voters might be conned into a Leave vote thinking that they are voting for, you know, what the Leave campaign says they'd be voting for - which is 100% certainly not the EEA option.
Instead, to give the Leavers their due, they did - finally, about four years too late - get round to specifying what they were asking voters to vote for. It's a bit rich to complain that it is unfair that they are being believed.
So far we have had the Leavers not trusting a future government to make the right decision regarding Turkey.
And now they don't trust it not to violate the official Leave campaign's position on the UK's post-EU status.
Almost as if they are infuriated that the people are getting it wrong each time.
Wow, I've never seen a vote this close in my lifetime. Whoever wins it will be interesting to see what happens if it is contested and a recount ordered and the winner changes.
Is this closer than Florida? Are hanging chads involved?
2000 was before I became interested in politics, being only 13 at the time!
Pah! We're the same age and I can (just about) remember Major winning in 1992.
I remember the euphoria of Tony Blair (though not in my household) and my parents talking about our local MP getting shitcanned (Portillo) but before that my earliest memory of significance was Baggio missing the penalty in the WC. I have vague recollections of Mrs Thatcher getting awfully cross at BA for putting awful liveries on their planes.
I can remember badgering my parents to vote in the last referendum. I was 8.
Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent
AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
I can see a recount coming
From translating Austrian media sources, with 50% of postals counted, the projection would be VdB to win by 2000 overall, he needs 61% of the postals to win I think!
There is an official Leave campaign nominated (call it government appointed) and that official Leave campaign has told us that there ain't gonna be no single market.
This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.
No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".
This is pitiful nonsense.
Leave's official designation carries absolutely no policy-making brief, and to try and suggest so on a forum of reasonably savvy political posters is simply absurd.
What Leave *should* be doing in my opinion is providing information on the various scenarios following a Leave vote, and if a voter's least preferred scenario (presumably WTO, 4% on the price of brie etc.) seems a more fearful consequence than a few more decades in the EU, vote to Remain.
There is an official Leave campaign nominated (call it government appointed) and that official Leave campaign has told us that there ain't gonna be no single market.
This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.
No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".
This is pitiful nonsense.
Leave's official designation carries absolutely no policy-making brief, and to try and suggest so on a forum of reasonably savvy political posters is simply absurd.
What Leave *should* be doing in my opinion is providing information on the various scenarios following a Leave vote, and if a voter's least preferred scenario (presumably WTO, 4% on the price of brie etc.) seems a more fearful consequence than a few more decades in the EU, vote to Remain.
So it's not doing what either you or I think it should be doing. Genius.
Looking ahead to June 24th there'll be absolute rage regardless of the outcome. If Leave win the Remainers will be apoplectic, set on revenge. If Remain win Leave will be gutted, but Remain will have to eat an awful lot of humble pie to charm back voters they offended.
The political landscape has changed forever, factions have appeared that won't be reconciled.
The Treasury is a neutral, objective and unbiased source.
It is an impartial source. It is not and never has been a neutral source.
So impartial that the government saw fit to create the OBR in 2010?
Exactly Max! The civil service is supposed to support the work of the government. The creation of the OBR was to allow the OBR greater freedom to report bad news for the government, if necessary.
Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent
AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
It looks it will be extremely tight, as almost all the postals from Vienna have now been counted.
I can see a recount coming
From translating Austrian media sources, with 50% of postals counted, the projection would be VdB to win by 2000 overall, he needs 61% of the postals to win I think!
Is it understood why the postal ballots break preferentially for vdB ?
With a large sample, why do the postal ballots show a different trend to the entire population from which they are drawn?
I can imagine some correlations -- elderly voters might be more likely to have postal ballots, or voters in very remote Alpine areas. But, those trends would seem to me to favour Hofer rather than vdB ?
If Vienna were over-represenetd in the postal ballots, then vdB would be favoured -- but why should Vienna be over-represented?
<troll mode> Of course, in the EEA option we wouldn't have a veto on Turkey joining the EU, giving rights to their citizens to come here. </troll mode>
Comments
'Yoko Ono: “I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the ’70s”
Not sure that will make much difference. It will only solidify the supporters and antis. It might even help with a few Bernie supporters unsure how to switch.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
That doesn't even compare to the 1992 recession - in fact, it's just stalled growth for a couple of years - and, given that contingency plans and policy instruments would rapidly appear out of the woodwork if we did vote to Leave, would be an entirely manageable level of risk.
Interesting that people found it believable.
Van Der Bellen should probably be favourite !
'ABOUT US
World News Daily Report is an American Jewish Zionist newspaper based in Tel Aviv and dedicated on covering biblical archeology news and other mysteries around the Globe.
Our News Team is composed of award winning Christian, Muslim and Jewish journalists, retired Mossad agents and veterans of the Israeli Armed Forces.'
Quite convincingly done in that instance.
I guess they don't know how many valid ballots there are until they've counted them...
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/734716285553135620
"haven't they just found salt might be harmless after all?"
Not quite. But the first rule of toxicology is "The dose makes the poison."
Copyright - Paracelsus (16th century).
"It's a fake viral story."
Oh well. But she is a bit dull otherwise.
Closing in on victory
Brexit's now going to kill the whole world..
Given 330 - 430k didn't change the result, I'd expect a VDB win from here.
"Oddly, one thing that should worry Mr Cameron and friends is that consensus that they’re going to win. If you think Remain has it in the bag, there isn’t any real risk of Brexit and the economic apocalypse that Mr Cameron says would follow, so it is it really so important to vote?"
Kirkup in Telegraph.
Hopefully next month you will come back to your senses and once again understand who our main enemy really is.
Farage is talking about "the next time" and SeanT says "winning is the poison that will kill Remainers"
Unlikely to be that close.
Their whole world depends on it.
Great @EdConwaySky
blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R
See what you think of it.
If PVs > 649000, at present strike rates VDB wins...
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1somt3n
Today John Mills, Chair of Labour Leave, responded to a report suggesting that housing prices could be harmed by the UK leaving the EU.
The report was jointly commissioned by the Association of Residential Letting Agents and the National Association of Estate Agent.
John Mills, Chair of Labour Leave, said:
"Clearly, the pro-EU camp is having a difficult time. Those doom-mongers have warned that house prices in the UK may fall if we leave the EU. That's quite possible but surely from many points of view should be welcomed.
"House prices in the UK have been pumped up by uncontrollable, open-door migration and lack of supply. The housing crisis has left hundreds of thousands of people in the UK, especially those at the bottom of the economic ladder, with poor-quality, expensive housing. The fact that people in favour of Remain think it has to be a bad thing for house prices to fall shows us exactly who they're speaking for -- monied business elites.
"Leaving the EU is the most sensible choice for left-leaning voters who want to secure a better future for Britain's most disadvantaged people.”
"Thanks to Michael Gove we know that Britain's future outside the EU would also be outside the single market.
So we can rule out our future looking like Norway or Iceland: both outside the EU but both members of the European Economic Area which pay for access to the single market and accept free movement of workers.
Vote Leave's future plan for the UK would be outside the EU and outside the EEA."
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-04-19/michael-gove-says-britains-future-outside-the-eu-would-also-be-outside-the-single-market-but-what-does-that-mean/
The early focus groups on Ed Miliband had him down as the weirdo that stabbed his brother in the back.
The early focus groups on Corbyn were he didn't sing the national anthem and hates the Queen.
The demographic breakdown in the Clinton-Trump poll still has a startling lead for Clinton with African-Americans. I find it hard to believe she will be able to defend that gap against a candidate making a concerted play for those votes.
Their plan seems to be vote out and then let Cameron sort out the mess.
Status at 14.13 European time
Norbert Hofer (195.209) 38,91 Prozent
Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (306.832) 61,1 Prozent
AVdB has clawed back 111k votes. with 502 k counted. Needs another 30+k
Cameron promised a referendum. We appear to be having one. Seems fair.
Once again I repeat...the Tories wouldn't have won an outright majority with a right wing leader. Do you think there would be one with a Labour Govt or a Tory/ Lib dem coalition?
He has done what he promised. Its really very simple.
Ho hum, a life of vice for me then
http://www.inthesnow.com/french-legal-action-british-instructors-alps/
This whole "it's up to the government to tell us the alternatives" idea is fatuous. The government managed the process which involves an official Leave campaign. The government therefore has appointed a body whose duty is to put forward an alternative vision.
No point in an "official Leave campaign" if all they say, when questioned why we should leave, is: "just because".
More sleaze enveloping the Nats, what distractions do the Zoomers have planned for today?
Instead, to give the Leavers their due, they did - finally, about four years too late - get round to specifying what they were asking voters to vote for. It's a bit rich to complain that it is unfair that they are being believed.
And now they don't trust it not to violate the official Leave campaign's position on the UK's post-EU status.
Almost as if they are infuriated that the people are getting it wrong each time.
The Treasury is a neutral, objective and unbiased source.
Leave's official designation carries absolutely no policy-making brief, and to try and suggest so on a forum of reasonably savvy political posters is simply absurd.
What Leave *should* be doing in my opinion is providing information on the various scenarios following a Leave vote, and if a voter's least preferred scenario (presumably WTO, 4% on the price of brie etc.) seems a more fearful consequence than a few more decades in the EU, vote to Remain.
https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734726643315576832
With a large sample, why do the postal ballots show a different trend to the entire population from which they are drawn?
I can imagine some correlations -- elderly voters might be more likely to have postal ballots, or voters in very remote Alpine areas. But, those trends would seem to me to favour Hofer rather than vdB ?
If Vienna were over-represenetd in the postal ballots, then vdB would be favoured -- but why should Vienna be over-represented?
Turnip
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/23/dick-nixon-to-hillary-clinton-you-can-t-rise-above-fear-without-abandoning-hope.html
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Of course, in the EEA option we wouldn't have a veto on Turkey joining the EU, giving rights to their citizens to come here.
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