Completely OT. Isn't it sad to see a great club like United lose their moral compass.
Agreed, I thought we might finally have seen the last of Mourinho, who has to be the most obnoxious manager in PL by some margin. He will now proceed to poison the atmosphere in the PL next season. United should really have had more class.
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
Problem is that Cameron has used up all his political capital and nobody believes a word that comes out of his mouth (as evidenced by his collapsing personal ratings)
As for Monaco, last time I checked (this morning) there were only 7 markets up on Ladbrokes.
I was tempted by the Not To Be Classified market, but, checking last year, 2015 only had 3 retirements. At one race this year there were none. It might be that To Be Classified, perversely, offers better value (with a counter-bet on a high number of lap 1 retirements).
1. If someone comes to you with an idea about a stone monolith, tell them to Fuck. Right. Off.
2. Um....
3. Don't eat or hold foodstuffs in camera range.
4. Remember how many kitchens you have.
5.Er....
6. That's it.
It reminds me of the cartoon about the police chief on the Yorkshire Ripper enquiry who was invited to New York to advise the Police department who were looking for serial killer Son Of Sam.........'Ok Lads. You spend he first ten years looking for smeone with a Geordie accent...'
Wonder whether Steve Hilton regrets helping to get Cameron and Osborne elected (given how they've turned out to be a complete let-down)?
I know I do...
You can take comfort in the alternatives having been so much worse. Damning with faint praise I know, but...
Well 2010 OK... We'd got a national crisis going on and Brown had to be removed ASAP but would Miliband really have been that much worse than Cameron? I've got my doubts...
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
Wonder whether Steve Hilton regrets helping to get Cameron and Osborne elected (given how they've turned out to be a complete let-down)?
I know I do...
You can take comfort in the alternatives having been so much worse. Damning with faint praise I know, but...
Well 2010 OK... We'd got a national crisis going on and Brown had to be removed ASAP but would Miliband really have been that much worse than Cameron? I've got my doubts...
Interesting counter-factual - if Miliband had won, would he still have been faced with the pressures fomenting in the party that got Corbyn elected? Were they down to Labour being a loser, or Labour being Blairite?
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
Problem is that Cameron has used up all his political capital and nobody believes a word that comes out of his mouth (as evidenced by his collapsing personal ratings)
This is the whole point, Cameron's presentation skills are superb but his deeds don't match his words. Very telling that an advertising man is praising him while the rest of us are yawning and shaking our heads.
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
On such a narrow win by either party, will there not have to be a new election?
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
You can see the assumptions implicit in the spreadsheet.
Those transfer factors get the 1st round non absentee -> 2nd round non absentee to the exact vote btw.
I should have done my model in Google Sheets so you could look at that
Do you want to do 7,000 - 8,000 as a spread for the Hofer victory? I'll sell 7,000, and you can buy 8,000. £1/1,000?
So, in the event of a 12,000 vote victory, I'll pay you £4, and in the event of a 3,000 vote one, you pay me £4, and scales appropriately? For anything between 7 and 8,000, it's a wash.
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
On such a narrow win by either party, will there not have to be a new election?
The winner is the winner, irrespective of the narrowness of the margin of victory.
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
You can see the assumptions implicit in the spreadsheet.
Those transfer factors get the 1st round non absentee -> 2nd round non absentee to the exact vote btw.
I should have done my model in Google Sheets so you could look at that
Do you want to do 7,000 - 8,000 as a spread for the Hofer victory? I'll sell 7,000, and you can buy 8,000. £1/1,000?
So, in the event of a 12,000 vote victory, I'll pay you £4, and in the event of a 3,000 vote one, you pay me £4, and scales appropriately? For anything between 7 and 8,000, it's a wash.
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
If Cameron's got Roger, he's lost middle-Britain.
Tell Roger to look at Camerons eyes as he gives his speech. They are glassy and dead, not an emotion in them. This is a man knowingly leading GB to the precipice and caring not a whiff.
I think that model makes the same error I made in my first calculation and uses the number of postal votes in the first round. Because there are nearly 2x as many, it comes out as almost exactly a dead heat.
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
You can see the assumptions implicit in the spreadsheet.
Those transfer factors get the 1st round non absentee -> 2nd round non absentee to the exact vote btw.
I should have done my model in Google Sheets so you could look at that
Do you want to do 7,000 - 8,000 as a spread for the Hofer victory? I'll sell 7,000, and you can buy 8,000. £1/1,000?
So, in the event of a 12,000 vote victory, I'll pay you £4, and in the event of a 3,000 vote one, you pay me £4, and scales appropriately? For anything between 7 and 8,000, it's a wash.
Sure
Excellent; I can't say I particularly care about the election, but it's nice to test my modelling skills against your :-)
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
Problem is that Cameron has used up all his political capital and nobody believes a word that comes out of his mouth (as evidenced by his collapsing personal ratings)
This is the whole point, Cameron's presentation skills are superb but his deeds don't match his words. Very telling that an advertising man is praising him while the rest of us are yawning and shaking our heads.
Yep. I noticed even Richard Nabavi was sounding a bit fed up with Cameron last night...
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
Problem is that Cameron has used up all his political capital and nobody believes a word that comes out of his mouth (as evidenced by his collapsing personal ratings)
This is the whole point, Cameron's presentation skills are superb but his deeds don't match his words. Very telling that an advertising man is praising him while the rest of us are yawning and shaking our heads.
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
If Cameron's got Roger, he's lost middle-Britain.
Neither you nor Roger strike me as typical of middle-Britain but I would say he was closer to it than you.
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
Problem is that Cameron has used up all his political capital and nobody believes a word that comes out of his mouth (as evidenced by his collapsing personal ratings)
This is the whole point, Cameron's presentation skills are superb but his deeds don't match his words. Very telling that an advertising man is praising him while the rest of us are yawning and shaking our heads.
Cameron isn't doing what it said on the tin.
It's entirely possible that he'll be hounded out of office after "winning" a vote. Interesting times ahead, Cameroons might regret being so smug and condescending.
I'm not a United fan but always admired the football under Ferguson, Mourinho stands for everything I dislike about football, I can't believe the fans will welcome him with open arms.
I wonder if there is enough time left for Leave to get its act together and come out unequivocally for a clear Brexit plan moving instead to an EFTA/EEA future.? I think if it opted for this more moderate, thoughtful route and ditched the Turkish invasion type of rhetoric they could win over a lot of middle of the road voters.
The anti-immigrant ranters wouldn't like it but would probably still vote Brexit anyway. Danger I suppose is that they just don't vote at all.
Except, of course, that there are far more absentee ballots this time around, which means there are a lot more votes to share around. This is only adding 461,000 votes, against 700-900,000 absentee ballots in the second round this time.
If we assume 830,000 of the 900,000 are returned, and keep those proportions, it becomes:
Norbert Hofer 2,251,796 Van der Bellen 2,310,487
2. Hofer underperformed his vote by 9.5% in the first round postals, while Bellen outperformed by 6.7%. Applying this to the remainder gives two different results. If the full 900,000 postal votes were returned, Van der Bellen edges it by just under 2,000 votes. If, on the other hand, the number returned falls below 768,202, then Hofer wins it.
It's going to be incredibly close.
Yes - ORF (television) is projecting on the basis of round 1 that Van der Bellen will get 61% of the postal vote (partly because Vienna has more PVs than most, and Vienna is massively anti-FPO), which would give him win by a couple of thousand votes. But as you imply, the assumption here is that people who signed up for PVs in round 2 vote in a similar way to postal voters last time. Who knows? My gut feeling is that Hofer will squeak it, because 61% of the PV seems a high target. But it's a guess.
There don't seem to be any market on the outcome, do there? Betfair is relentlessly Anglo-Saxon.
Yes, and Betfair is incredibly conservative (small c) when it comes to offering political markets. Considering its ultra dominant position in exchange betting, it has passed on dozens of possible political market opportunities over the years. Someone there needs a kick up the proverbial.
Is anybody asking David Cameron any difficult questions?
Such as if Brexit is such a threat, why on earth did he call a referendum?
And why did he hint he might back leave if he didn;t get what he 'wanted?'
And why did he once say Britain had a very bright future outside the EU?
Why do you think those are difficult questions? He'd bat them off effortlessly, as he has many times, something like this:
1. "Because it's an important question on which people have different views, and I thought it right that voters, not politicians, should decide it."
2. "I've always made clear that my view is that on balance the UK is better off remaining within a reformed EU."
3. "Of course, as I've made clear, Britain can prosper outside the EU. That isn't the question, the question is whether we will do better or worse, and I firmly believe the that we are better off remaining within the EU, with full access to tthe Single Market."
I wonder if there is enough time left for Leave to get its act together and come out unequivocally for a clear Brexit plan moving instead to an EFTA/EEA future.?
No
Even if there was enough time, and they hadn't been saying the opposite for weeks, there is no agreed Leave position.
If one of the groups proposed it, at least one of the others would attack it
The most interesting result would surely be one in which REMAIN won, but post-ballot polls suggested that it only did so because of non-white (and Celtic) votes. I can't see middle England ("middle-Britain" doesn't exist) being too pleased with that. Perhaps the fringe at the next Tory conference will see a call for another referendum, this time with each country in the UK voting separately...
Yes, and Betfair is incredibly conservative (small c) when it comes to offering political markets. Considering its ultra dominant position in exchange betting, it has passed on dozens of possible political market opportunities over the years. Someone there needs a kick up the proverbial.
Yeah, I can't see their problem. Absolutely don't offer a book of your own for a market you don't understand, but offer an exchange trading place for people who do, why not? And they'd pick up some new cusomers who could be attracted to bet on football and other stuff too, what's not to like?
I wonder if there is enough time left for Leave to get its act together and come out unequivocally for a clear Brexit plan moving instead to an EFTA/EEA future.? I think if it opted for this more moderate, thoughtful route and ditched the Turkish invasion type of rhetoric they could win over a lot of middle of the road voters.
The anti-immigrant ranters wouldn't like it but would probably still vote Brexit anyway. Danger I suppose is that they just don't vote at all.
Not sure. I think Leave can win if this becomes a vote on immigration.
1st round absentee: Dr. Irmgard Griss 117 323 21.9% Ing. Norbert Hofer 136 832 25.6% Rudolf Hundstorfer 64,349 12.0% Dr. Andreas Khol 57,203 10.7% Ing. Richard Lugner 9,025 1.7% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 150 042 28.1%
1st round total: Dr. Irmgard Griss 810.641 18,9 % Ing. Norbert Hofer 1.499.971 35,1 % Rudolf Hundstorfer 482.790 11,3 % Dr. Andreas Khol 475.767 11,1 % Ing. Richard Lugner 96.783 2,3 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 913.218 21,3 %
2nd round w/o Absentee:
Ing. Norbert Hofer 1937863 51.9% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1793857 48.1%
OK, there are two ways of looking at this.
1. Dr Van der Bellen got 16% of his vote from absentee ballots, against 9% for Hofer. If this remains the case in the second round this time, it means that the overall vote share will be:
Norbert Hofer 2,112,271 Van der Bellen 2,090,874
Except, of course, that there are far more absentee ballots this time around, which means there are a lot more votes to share around. This is only adding 461,000 votes, against 700-900,000 absentee ballots in the second round this time.
If we assume 830,000 of the 900,000 are returned, and keep those proportions, it becomes:
Norbert Hofer 2,251,796 Van der Bellen 2,310,487
2. Hofer underperformed his vote by 9.5% in the first round postals, while Bellen outperformed by 6.7%. Applying this to the remainder gives two different results. If the full 900,000 postal votes were returned, Van der Bellen edges it by just under 2,000 votes. If, on the other hand, the number returned falls below 768,202, then Hofer wins it.
It's going to be incredibly close.
Another way of looking at it is that in round one, just considering Hofer/Van Bellen:-
Van Bellen outperformed his share (relative to Hofer) in postal v non-postal by 16.4% (52.3 compared to 35.9%) and Hofer underperformed by the same amount.
Applying these differentials to round two, we find if the PVs are more than 497,225, Van Bellen should win...
In other words Van Bellen should get 64.5% of the postal vote.
@CasinoRoyale I found your blog post interesting. What I didn't understand was why you didn't analyse the likely consequences of Leave with anything like the rigour that you applied to Remain, effectively taking the Leave prospectus on trust. If you examine one side critically and the other uncritically, it's unsurprising that you come down on the side of the one that you haven't picked apart.
1st round absentee: Dr. Irmgard Griss 117 323 21.9% Ing. Norbert Hofer 136 832 25.6% Rudolf Hundstorfer 64,349 12.0% Dr. Andreas Khol 57,203 10.7% Ing. Richard Lugner 9,025 1.7% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 150 042 28.1%
1st round total: Dr. Irmgard Griss 810.641 18,9 % Ing. Norbert Hofer 1.499.971 35,1 % Rudolf Hundstorfer 482.790 11,3 % Dr. Andreas Khol 475.767 11,1 % Ing. Richard Lugner 96.783 2,3 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 913.218 21,3 %
2nd round w/o Absentee:
Ing. Norbert Hofer 1937863 51.9% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1793857 48.1%
OK, there are two ways of looking at this.
1. Dr Van der Bellen got 16% of his vote from absentee ballots, against 9% for Hofer. If this remains the case in the second round this time, it means that the overall vote share will be:
Norbert Hofer 2,112,271 Van der Bellen 2,090,874
Except, of course, that there are far more absentee ballots this time around, which means there are a lot more votes to share around. This is only adding 461,000 votes, against 700-900,000 absentee ballots in the second round this time.
If we assume 830,000 of the 900,000 are returned, and keep those proportions, it becomes:
Norbert Hofer 2,251,796 Van der Bellen 2,310,487
2. Hofer underperformed his vote by 9.5% in the first round postals, while Bellen outperformed by 6.7%. Applying this to the remainder gives two different results. If the full 900,000 postal votes were returned, Van der Bellen edges it by just under 2,000 votes. If, on the other hand, the number returned falls below 768,202, then Hofer wins it.
It's going to be incredibly close.
Another way of looking at it is that in round one, just considering Hofer/Van Bellen:-
Van Bellen outperformed his share (relative to Hofer) in postal v non-postal by 16.4% (52.3 compared to 35.9%) and Hofer underperformed by the same amount.
Applying these differentials to round two, we find if the PVs are more than 497,225, Van Bellen should win...
900,000 postal votes were sent out, and - it is rumoured - 750,000 returned.
I wonder if there is enough time left for Leave to get its act together and come out unequivocally for a clear Brexit plan moving instead to an EFTA/EEA future.? I think if it opted for this more moderate, thoughtful route and ditched the Turkish invasion type of rhetoric they could win over a lot of middle of the road voters.
The anti-immigrant ranters wouldn't like it but would probably still vote Brexit anyway. Danger I suppose is that they just don't vote at all.
Not sure. I think Leave can win if this becomes a vote on immigration.
I don't. Immigration exercises a certain segment of the electorate but not 50%. The ranting also puts off a lot of other voters.
Same thing in US, Trump saying he will ban muslims entering the country to mop up that demographic in the primaries then rowing back as fast as can now hes the nominee because knows that outside of the GOP selectorate its an overall vote loser.
1st round absentee: Dr. Irmgard Griss 117 323 21.9% Ing. Norbert Hofer 136 832 25.6% Rudolf Hundstorfer 64,349 12.0% Dr. Andreas Khol 57,203 10.7% Ing. Richard Lugner 9,025 1.7% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 150 042 28.1%
1st round total: Dr. Irmgard Griss 810.641 18,9 % Ing. Norbert Hofer 1.499.971 35,1 % Rudolf Hundstorfer 482.790 11,3 % Dr. Andreas Khol 475.767 11,1 % Ing. Richard Lugner 96.783 2,3 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 913.218 21,3 %
2nd round w/o Absentee:
Ing. Norbert Hofer 1937863 51.9% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1793857 48.1%
OK, there are two ways of looking at this.
1. Dr Van der Bellen got 16% of his vote from absentee ballots, against 9% for Hofer. If this remains the case in the second round this time, it means that the overall vote share will be:
Norbert Hofer 2,112,271 Van der Bellen 2,090,874
Except, of course, that there are far more absentee ballots this time around, which means there are a lot more votes to share around. This is only adding 461,000 votes, against 700-900,000 absentee ballots in the second round this time.
If we assume 830,000 of the 900,000 are returned, and keep those proportions, it becomes:
Norbert Hofer 2,251,796 Van der Bellen 2,310,487
2. Hofer underperformed his vote by 9.5% in the first round postals, while Bellen outperformed by 6.7%. Applying this to the remainder gives two different results. If the full 900,000 postal votes were returned, Van der Bellen edges it by just under 2,000 votes. If, on the other hand, the number returned falls below 768,202, then Hofer wins it.
It's going to be incredibly close.
Another way of looking at it is that in round one, just considering Hofer/Van Bellen:-
Van Bellen outperformed his share (relative to Hofer) in postal v non-postal by 16.4% (52.3 compared to 35.9%) and Hofer underperformed by the same amount.
Applying these differentials to round two, we find if the PVs are more than 497,225, Van Bellen should win...
900,000 postal votes were sent out, and - it is rumoured - 750,000 returned.
That would imply Van Bellen wins by 73,000, on my model. (^_-)
1st round absentee: Dr. Irmgard Griss 117 323 21.9% Ing. Norbert Hofer 136 832 25.6% Rudolf Hundstorfer 64,349 12.0% Dr. Andreas Khol 57,203 10.7% Ing. Richard Lugner 9,025 1.7% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 150 042 28.1%
1st round total: Dr. Irmgard Griss 810.641 18,9 % Ing. Norbert Hofer 1.499.971 35,1 % Rudolf Hundstorfer 482.790 11,3 % Dr. Andreas Khol 475.767 11,1 % Ing. Richard Lugner 96.783 2,3 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 913.218 21,3 %
2nd round w/o Absentee:
Ing. Norbert Hofer 1937863 51.9% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1793857 48.1%
OK, there are two ways of looking at this.
1. Dr Van der Bellen got 16% of his vote from absentee ballots, against 9% for Hofer. If this remains the case in the second round this time, it means that the overall vote share will be:
Norbert Hofer 2,112,271 Van der Bellen 2,090,874
Except, of course, that there are far more absentee ballots this time around, which means there are a lot more votes to share around. This is only adding 461,000 votes, against 700-900,000 absentee ballots in the second round this time.
If we assume 830,000 of the 900,000 are returned, and keep those proportions, it becomes:
Norbert Hofer 2,251,796 Van der Bellen 2,310,487
2. Hofer underperformed his vote by 9.5% in the first round postals, while Bellen outperformed by 6.7%. Applying this to the remainder gives two different results. If the full 900,000 postal votes were returned, Van der Bellen edges it by just under 2,000 votes. If, on the other hand, the number returned falls below 768,202, then Hofer wins it.
It's going to be incredibly close.
Another way of looking at it is that in round one, just considering Hofer/Van Bellen:-
Van Bellen outperformed his share (relative to Hofer) in postal v non-postal by 16.4% (52.3 compared to 35.9%) and Hofer underperformed by the same amount.
Applying these differentials to round two, we find if the PVs are more than 497,225, Van Bellen should win...
900,000 postal votes were sent out, and - it is rumoured - 750,000 returned.
That would imply Van Bellen wins by 73,000, on my model. (^_-)
Pulpstar would be very upset, then, as he'd be owing me about £77
Mr. Eagles, you might very well think that, but then, you're as mad as a mongoose.
Just a moment Mr. Dancer, I don't think there is any evidence that the Mongoose is a notably, or even, slightly prone to madness. They may giggle whilst, ahem, courting but that is not a sign of insanity. There is in fact a long history of co-operation between man and mongoose, similar in fact to that between man and cats and, like cats, they were worshiped as gods by the ancient Egyptians (unlike cats the mongoose has forgotten this).
So you comment to, Mr. Eagles, is a poor metaphor or a nasty slur on 29 of the 34 species in the 14 genera of the family Herpestidae.
The Jacobite News Network can exclusive reveal that Defence Minister Penny Mourdaunt gave JNN senior political correspondent Hamish McBonkers a few words following a lunch yesterday. The transcript was as follows :
Hamish - Good afternoon Minister, good lunch? Penny - Turkey ... (laughter) Hamish - May I clarify. Is Turkey completely off the menu for you? Penny - Yes and no. Hamish - Er ... Penny - Lunch yes but EU no. Hamish - Stuffing? Penny - Yes, the PM socked it to me I'm afraid. Hamish - No I meant stuffing turkey. Penny - Well I did that on the Marr show Hamish - Er ... What about Turkey and NATO? Penny - No way should Turkey be allowed in NATO, it'd be a calamity. Hamish - Er ... but minister, they're already in NATO. Penny - No they're not ... oh hang on. Perhaps they're in the EU but not NATO or something like that. Hamish - Bootiful interview minister. Thank you.
Mr. Eagles, you might very well think that, but then, you're as mad as a mongoose.
Just a moment Mr. Dancer, I don't think there is any evidence that the Mongoose is a notably, or even, slightly prone to madness. They may giggle whilst, ahem, courting but that is not a sign of insanity. There is in fact a long history of co-operation between man and mongoose, similar in fact to that between man and cats and, like cats, they were worshiped as gods by the ancient Egyptians (unlike cats the mongoose has forgotten this).
So you comment to, Mr. Eagles, is a poor metaphor or a nasty slur on 29 of the 34 species in the 14 genera of the family Herpestidae.
HL, what qualification do you think someone needs before asserting that an individual, human or otherwise, is, or is not, mad? Do you possess it?
I wonder if there is enough time left for Leave to get its act together and come out unequivocally for a clear Brexit plan moving instead to an EFTA/EEA future.? I think if it opted for this more moderate, thoughtful route and ditched the Turkish invasion type of rhetoric they could win over a lot of middle of the road voters.
The anti-immigrant ranters wouldn't like it but would probably still vote Brexit anyway. Danger I suppose is that they just don't vote at all.
Not sure. I think Leave can win if this becomes a vote on immigration.
I don't. Immigration exercises a certain segment of the electorate but not 50%. The ranting also puts off a lot of other voters.
Same thing in US, Trump saying he will ban muslims entering the country to mop up that demographic in the primaries then rowing back as fast as can now hes the nominee because knows that outside of the GOP selectorate its an overall vote loser.
I do agree that it can repel a lot voters too. I think the Leave campaign also understand that. However Leave don't need 50% of the electorate, just 50% of those that actually vote and immigration is a hot-button issue for, at least, a very sizeable minority.
The Jacobite News Network can exclusive reveal that Defence Minister Penny Mourdaunt gave JNN senior political correspondent Hamish McBonkers a few words following a lunch yesterday. The transcript was as follows :
Hamish - Good afternoon Minister, good lunch? Penny - Turkey ... (laughter) Hamish - May I clarify. Is Turkey completely off the menu for you? Penny - Yes and no. Hamish - Er ... Penny - Lunch yes but EU no. Hamish - Stuffing? Penny - Yes, the PM socked it to me I'm afraid. Hamish - No I meant stuffing turkey. Penny - Well I did that on the Marr show Hamish - Er ... What about Turkey and NATO? Penny - No way should Turkey be allowed in NATO, it'd be a calamity. Hamish - Er ... but minister, they're already in NATO. Penny - No they're not ... oh hang on. Perhaps they're in the EU but not NATO or something like that. Hamish - Bootiful interview minister. Thank you.
Can't decide whether Mordant is incredibly stupid or an unbelievably brazen liar.
Either way she should be relieved of her government duties asap after June 23rd.
She has managed to lower the bar when I thought it was already pretty much on the ground.
On a flying visit to the US and suffering with jetlag. I thought I was getting better able to handle the time difference, but then I imagined that I read that Jeremy Corbyn is getting advice from Ed Miliband :-D
I guess it shows that even after all the trips I have done here my sleep-deprived brain can still play funny tricks on me.
Cameron is giving a speech and he's very good indeed. Leave have no one in the same league which is why as people's minds become more focussed and we start listening and watching more the polls are likely to widen
This is news? Cameron has always given good speeches - every 'highlight' of his dismal Premiership has been a speech or a stance on something. When he enchanted the Tory party with an unscripted speech. When he boffed the EU on the nose with a firm stance. Etc. The trouble is that in these times we needed a Prime Minister, not a wind up mouth on legs.
1st round absentee: Dr. Irmgard Griss 117 323 21.9% Ing. Norbert Hofer 136 832 25.6% Rudolf Hundstorfer 64,349 12.0% Dr. Andreas Khol 57,203 10.7% Ing. Richard Lugner 9,025 1.7% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 150 042 28.1%
1st round total: Dr. Irmgard Griss 810.641 18,9 % Ing. Norbert Hofer 1.499.971 35,1 % Rudolf Hundstorfer 482.790 11,3 % Dr. Andreas Khol 475.767 11,1 % Ing. Richard Lugner 96.783 2,3 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 913.218 21,3 %
2nd round w/o Absentee:
Ing. Norbert Hofer 1937863 51.9% Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1793857 48.1%
OK, there are two ways of looking at this.
1. Dr Van der Bellen got 16% of his vote from absentee ballots, against 9% for Hofer. If this remains the case in the second round this time, it means that the overall vote share will be:
Norbert Hofer 2,112,271 Van der Bellen 2,090,874
Except, of course, that there are far more absentee ballots this time around, which means there are a lot more votes to share around. This is only adding 461,000 votes, against 700-900,000 absentee ballots in the second round this time.
If we assume 830,000 of the 900,000 are returned, and keep those proportions, it becomes:
Norbert Hofer 2,251,796 Van der Bellen 2,310,487
2. Hofer underperformed his vote by 9.5% in the first round postals, while Bellen outperformed by 6.7%. Applying this to the remainder gives two different results. If the full 900,000 postal votes were returned, Van der Bellen edges it by just under 2,000 votes. If, on the other hand, the number returned falls below 768,202, then Hofer wins it.
It's going to be incredibly close.
Another way of looking at it is that in round one, just considering Hofer/Van Bellen:-
Van Bellen outperformed his share (relative to Hofer) in postal v non-postal by 16.4% (52.3 compared to 35.9%) and Hofer underperformed by the same amount.
Applying these differentials to round two, we find if the PVs are more than 497,225, Van Bellen should win...
900,000 postal votes were sent out, and - it is rumoured - 750,000 returned.
That would imply Van Bellen wins by 73,000, on my model. (^_-)
Pulpstar would be very upset, then, as he'd be owing me about £77
Bloke who regularly misses borrowing targets delivers a forecast for LEAVE. PMSL.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Vote to Leave would increase borrowing by between £24bn and £39bn over 2 yrs and impact how much we have to spend on schools & hospitals
Mr. Eagles, you might very well think that, but then, you're as mad as a mongoose.
Just a moment Mr. Dancer, I don't think there is any evidence that the Mongoose is a notably, or even, slightly prone to madness. They may giggle whilst, ahem, courting but that is not a sign of insanity. There is in fact a long history of co-operation between man and mongoose, similar in fact to that between man and cats and, like cats, they were worshiped as gods by the ancient Egyptians (unlike cats the mongoose has forgotten this).
So you comment to, Mr. Eagles, is a poor metaphor or a nasty slur on 29 of the 34 species in the 14 genera of the family Herpestidae.
HL, what qualification do you think someone needs before asserting that an individual, human or otherwise, is, or is not, mad? Do you possess it?
I posses numerous qualifications in the fields of mathematics, computing, history and teaching at degree and post degree level, I also have non-university qualifications in diverse other subjects (e.g. working with people who have learning difficulties). I have no qualifications in psychiatry or psychology. I can however read and write, so if you know of any evidence that the mongoose is prone to insanity do share them, otherwise I think my comment stands.
And about a quarter of those in prison. This goes some way to explaining -- but most certainly not excusing -- why children in care, often living chaotic lives, were not listened to when they complained of abuse, assault or rape. It also explains Kids Company, who at least claimed to be addressing what had seemed for decades to be an intractable problem. It ought to be a national scandal.
Mr. Taffys, reminds me of Peston not asking Cameron about his own Turkish delight.
There was a mini- outbreak of outrage when someone in Voteleave said that Peston (BFF of Roland Rudd) had done a deal with Downing street to have Farage be the leave person in forthcoming itv "debate". Since then the first two "star" people on Peston show were 1st week Osborne and then 2nd week Cameron. Both given the soft interviews which Andrew Neil would not have done. Maybe VoteLEAVE were right in the first place? A Peston stitch up.
Bloke who regularly misses borrowing targets delivers a forecast for LEAVE. PMSL.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Vote to Leave would increase borrowing by between £24bn and £39bn over 2 yrs and impact how much we have to spend on schools & hospitals
Vote Leave would impact how much the UK spends on schools & hospitals in France, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Bulgaria, Romania, etc. but not in the UK.
@CasinoRoyale I found your blog post interesting. What I didn't understand was why you didn't analyse the likely consequences of Leave with anything like the rigour that you applied to Remain, effectively taking the Leave prospectus on trust. If you examine one side critically and the other uncritically, it's unsurprising that you come down on the side of the one that you haven't picked apart.
Mr Meeks, please provide a link to your rigourous and critical analysis of what REMAIN would mean for us over the next 5+ years, I seem to have overlooked it. Thank you.
The most interesting result would surely be one in which REMAIN won, but post-ballot polls suggested that it only did so because of non-white (and Celtic) votes. I can't see middle England ("middle-Britain" doesn't exist) being too pleased with that. Perhaps the fringe at the next Tory conference will see a call for another referendum, this time with each country in the UK voting separately...
Lol. so would Cornwall be included in "middle England" or celtic in this most peculiar way of dividing the nation?
Can't decide whether Mordant is incredibly stupid or an unbelievably brazen liar.
Either way she should be relieved of her government duties asap after June 23rd.
She has managed to lower the bar when I thought it was already pretty much on the ground.
I think she simply didn't know that each EU country had a veto on accession states. Probably thought it was QMV. Then she just dug a hole. Lucky for her it was Andrew Marr and not Andrew Neil interviewing her. She'd have been shredded.
As the MP for Zoomer north and Runrig appears to telly to desperately distract attention from Hosie by complaining about election expenses, Guido claims the Sturbocopter was not properly declared...
Bloke who regularly misses borrowing targets delivers a forecast for LEAVE. PMSL.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Vote to Leave would increase borrowing by between £24bn and £39bn over 2 yrs and impact how much we have to spend on schools & hospitals
The most interesting result would surely be one in which REMAIN won, but post-ballot polls suggested that it only did so because of non-white (and Celtic) votes. I can't see middle England ("middle-Britain" doesn't exist) being too pleased with that. Perhaps the fringe at the next Tory conference will see a call for another referendum, this time with each country in the UK voting separately...
Lol. so would Cornwall be included in "middle England" or celtic in this most peculiar way of dividing the nation?
What do the Cornish want? BTW, the UK isn't a nation, it's a federal State, of sorts.
"Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says."
Pick a number, any number, make it a big one, multiple it by 4, then add on a few 1000 for effect of looking as if the result of a complex mathematical model....
And about a quarter of those in prison. This goes some way to explaining -- but most certainly not excusing -- why children in care, often living chaotic lives, were not listened to when they complained of abuse, assault or rape. .... It ought to be a national scandal.
Yes. Into this system that clearly has major failings, some do-gooders want to bring in thousands more children who are currently in France and Italy etc. Their life chances do not look so good when placed in our institutions.
"Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says."
Pick a number, any number, make it a big one, multiple it by 4, then add on a few 1000 for effect of looking as if the result of a complex mathematical model....
Sean T is correct.
Osborne is effectively promising to avoid recession. If we vote Remain and there is a recession (very likely) there will be no forgiveness.
Mr. Eagles, you might very well think that, but then, you're as mad as a mongoose.
Just a moment Mr. Dancer, I don't think there is any evidence that the Mongoose is a notably, or even, slightly prone to madness. They may giggle whilst, ahem, courting but that is not a sign of insanity. There is in fact a long history of co-operation between man and mongoose, similar in fact to that between man and cats and, like cats, they were worshiped as gods by the ancient Egyptians (unlike cats the mongoose has forgotten this).
So you comment to, Mr. Eagles, is a poor metaphor or a nasty slur on 29 of the 34 species in the 14 genera of the family Herpestidae.
HL, what qualification do you think someone needs before asserting that an individual, human or otherwise, is, or is not, mad? Do you possess it?
I posses numerous qualifications in the fields of mathematics, computing, history and teaching at degree and post degree level, I also have non-university qualifications in diverse other subjects (e.g. working with people who have learning difficulties). I have no qualifications in psychiatry or psychology. I can however read and write, so if you know of any evidence that the mongoose is prone to insanity do share them, otherwise I think my comment stands.
Back in 1980 I read in a university recommended book on psychiatry, that one study found that only 1 in 4 diagnoses accurately assessed the specific condition the patient had.
Hofer has won this. Simply because the media are saying that the Green guy is ahead slightly. If you look at elections across the world and including in the U.K GE and Scotland the right or centre right has been consistently underestimated. This doesn't mean this has happened again and this is not the traditional left vs. right wing spectrum we are used to but my gut says the postal votes are more for the far right.
Does anyone know are absentee votes in Austria likely to be older voters?
Edit: If the far right win in Austria because the young don't turn out just what would it take for them to turn out?
"Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says."
Pick a number, any number, make it a big one, multiple it by 4, then add on a few 1000 for effect of looking as if the result of a complex mathematical model....
Sean T is correct.
Osborne is effectively promising to avoid recession. If we vote Remain and there is a recession (very likely) there will be no forgiveness.
After six years of economic growth, a recession (even if only a mild one) is quite likely in the near future, regardless of Brexit.
I wonder what excuse George Osborne will come up with if we vote Remain.
"Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says."
Pick a number, any number, make it a big one, multiple it by 4, then add on a few 1000 for effect of looking as if the result of a complex mathematical model....
Which part of without Cameron there would be no Tory majority and no referendum is difficult for the haters to understand.
They aren't rational. Some of the Tory Leavers are worse than the Corbynites or ISIS when it comes to fervour and belief they are right and everyone else is wrong, even when you present them with the facts.
Comments
As for Monaco, last time I checked (this morning) there were only 7 markets up on Ladbrokes.
I was tempted by the Not To Be Classified market, but, checking last year, 2015 only had 3 retirements. At one race this year there were none. It might be that To Be Classified, perversely, offers better value (with a counter-bet on a high number of lap 1 retirements).
That said, I haven't bet on anything yet.
I think Hofer wins by 14,000 votes.
I have assumed transfer factors as follows:
0.093012 Green -> Hofer
1 Hofer -> Hofer
0.3 Hundstorfer -> Hofer
0.83 Kohl -> Hofer
0.5 Lugner -> Hofer
0 Bellen -> Hofer
I'd reckon Hofer is the favourite, but I'd expect him to win by fewer than 3,000 votes.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Yte696-ulB4xGbiJQdbVV6WtFZMOom2H2NhDMxM8CyA/edit#gid=0
You can see the assumptions implicit in the spreadsheet.
Those transfer factors get the 1st round non absentee -> 2nd round non absentee to the exact vote btw.
@GreensladeR: Research study shows that bulk of national press favours Brexit https://t.co/hgKXr94jSI
Do you want to do 7,000 - 8,000 as a spread for the Hofer victory? I'll sell 7,000, and you can buy 8,000. £1/1,000?
So, in the event of a 12,000 vote victory, I'll pay you £4, and in the event of a 3,000 vote one, you pay me £4, and scales appropriately? For anything between 7 and 8,000, it's a wash.
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/734681719169814528
Update: Retweeted at @jamesamalcolm. I wasn't sure of your Twitter name (if you have one) to credit.
2 secs
Yes that is fine.
Such as if Brexit is such a threat, why on earth did he call a referendum?
And why did he hint he might back leave if he didn;t get what he 'wanted?'
And why did he once say Britain had a very bright future outside the EU?
I'm not a United fan but always admired the football under Ferguson, Mourinho stands for everything I dislike about football, I can't believe the fans will welcome him with open arms.
The anti-immigrant ranters wouldn't like it but would probably still vote Brexit anyway. Danger I suppose is that they just don't vote at all.
1. "Because it's an important question on which people have different views, and I thought it right that voters, not politicians, should decide it."
2. "I've always made clear that my view is that on balance the UK is better off remaining within a reformed EU."
3. "Of course, as I've made clear, Britain can prosper outside the EU. That isn't the question, the question is whether we will do better or worse, and I firmly believe the that we are better off remaining within the EU, with full access to tthe Single Market."
Even if there was enough time, and they hadn't been saying the opposite for weeks, there is no agreed Leave position.
If one of the groups proposed it, at least one of the others would attack it
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/home-truths-mhmd5twth
Van Bellen outperformed his share (relative to Hofer) in postal v non-postal by 16.4% (52.3 compared to 35.9%) and Hofer underperformed by the same amount.
Applying these differentials to round two, we find if the PVs are more than 497,225, Van Bellen should win...
In other words Van Bellen should get 64.5% of the postal vote.
Will have a read with my lunchtime sandwich.
One for МоскваБоб LondonBob.
Same thing in US, Trump saying he will ban muslims entering the country to mop up that demographic in the primaries then rowing back as fast as can now hes the nominee because knows that outside of the GOP selectorate its an overall vote loser.
His personal ratings have tanked because people have made up their minds about him.
So you comment to, Mr. Eagles, is a poor metaphor or a nasty slur on 29 of the 34 species in the 14 genera of the family Herpestidae.
The Jacobite News Network can exclusive reveal that Defence Minister Penny Mourdaunt gave JNN senior political correspondent Hamish McBonkers a few words following a lunch yesterday. The transcript was as follows :
Hamish - Good afternoon Minister, good lunch?
Penny - Turkey ... (laughter)
Hamish - May I clarify. Is Turkey completely off the menu for you?
Penny - Yes and no.
Hamish - Er ...
Penny - Lunch yes but EU no.
Hamish - Stuffing?
Penny - Yes, the PM socked it to me I'm afraid.
Hamish - No I meant stuffing turkey.
Penny - Well I did that on the Marr show
Hamish - Er ... What about Turkey and NATO?
Penny - No way should Turkey be allowed in NATO, it'd be a calamity.
Hamish - Er ... but minister, they're already in NATO.
Penny - No they're not ... oh hang on. Perhaps they're in the EU but not NATO or something like that.
Hamish - Bootiful interview minister. Thank you.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R2XJO7YFQW987T/
Either way she should be relieved of her government duties asap after June 23rd.
She has managed to lower the bar when I thought it was already pretty much on the ground.
I guess it shows that even after all the trips I have done here my sleep-deprived brain can still play funny tricks on me.
Remainers are missing the point. The point is that immigration should be controlled by British voters.
We may decide to take MORE European folk than we currently do. We may decide to take less. I don;t know, I've only got one vote.
The point is WE call the shots, not Brussels, not Merkel Not Juncker. Us.
And it matters, because immigration is a key gamechanger in the 21st century. THE gamechanger.
George Osborne @George_Osborne
Vote to Leave would increase borrowing by between £24bn and £39bn over 2 yrs and impact how much we have to spend on schools & hospitals
Beware of Labour’s ‘small blips’ – they tend to cost the country £billions...
@kevverage: translation: now it looks clear Remain will win, putting head above parapet to allow us to claim some credit https://t.co/28jslB04cS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH_QkA54zWI
As the MP for Zoomer north and Runrig appears to telly to desperately distract attention from Hosie by complaining about election expenses, Guido claims the Sturbocopter was not properly declared...
ROFLCOPTER, as it were
When was the last time the league was won at Stamford Bridge?
Which manager was sacked immediately after winning the FA Cup?
Pick a number, any number, make it a big one, multiple it by 4, then add on a few 1000 for effect of looking as if the result of a complex mathematical model....
Osborne is effectively promising to avoid recession. If we vote Remain and there is a recession (very likely) there will be no forgiveness.
Does anyone know are absentee votes in Austria likely to be older voters?
Edit: If the far right win in Austria because the young don't turn out just what would it take for them to turn out?
I wonder what excuse George Osborne will come up with if we vote Remain.