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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that suggests Corbyn is unassailable discussed

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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nunu said:
    Are you sure this is a good idea? Will @TSE's day job welcome the publicity if some bored journalist on the local rag picks up on it?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003



    Oh really? They're nuts?

    Better now?

    Or do you still not see the problem? There is no level of lunacy that the EU will not jump to suit a protectionist mindset. It hurts Europe and the rest of the worlds poor, It doesn't hurt Hollywood much though.

    No, I refuse to engage with anyone who doesn't know the difference between, there, they're, and their.
    You've engage in conversation with me before.

    If you really think a typo is a defining factor you're even more small minded than I thought you were.
    Debating with you a waste of my time.

    I'm still waiting for proof of your assertion that the IMF wanted the UK to join the Euro.
    I thought I said the IMF was in favour of the Euro originally but I may be wrong. In any measure the Euro has been an economic disaster for everyone except Germany (and maybe some of the smaller countries) amplified at the southern periphery. The IMF was broadly supportive of the Euro in general when in fact it should have been pointing out that it was a disaster in waiting as Mrs T did in 1989. (When I thought she was wrong on many things though not that.)

    In any case the article you highlighted was originally in the Mail and was a hatchet piece with one quote from the IMF. What I was looking for was some actual IMF document.

    As for debating I suspect you mean baiting.
    The Euro has been a convenient scapegoat to blame for failings most often found elsewhere. We should remember that it wasn't just Greece, Ireland and Portugal (and others) which suffered but that Hungary (EU, non-Eurozone) and Iceland (non-EU), for example, also had to go for bailouts. Bad banking and bad government policy will have their inevitable consequences.

    In fact, the so called problems of the Euro were design features. It was always intended that one consequence of EMU would be to force countries to adopt more competitive practices and more flexible policies; something which has happened, albeit after much foolishness. And on that score, Greece, whether it had used the Drachma or the Euro (which it shouldn't have been let into in the first place had the rules been applied), would still have been in trouble. Spend too much and earn too little and you have a problem. Devaluation may not have been an option as the markets would have priced in a premium for it or forced Greece to borrow in a hard foreign currency anyway (and still added a default premium).

    One can argue that the Euro made things more difficult but it's hard to contend that it was anything other than foolish government policies and selfish public attitudes that was the root cause of the crisis on in each country that suffered.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003
    On topic, not had time to hear the podcast but yes, Corbyn is safe for 2016 now. How safe he'll be for 2017-19 depends on an awful lot of factors, from whether the Labour leadership election rules change (and if so, how), to who replaces Cameron (and when), to whether the intra-Tory civil war on Europe abates (not unrelated to Corbyn's effectiveness), to whether any new stars emerge within Labour, to whether any third party can break though, to next year's local election results - and so on.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003
    RobD said:

    Speculation of missile from Syria or Libya in Le Monde

    Do they have the range?
    If it was from Syria, it's (1) an awfully long way, and (2) going to pass directly over Israel, who you'd think would track these things and might have something to say about it. Libya is marginally more likely but I'd still have thought that it'd be tracked on military radar (is there still a Nato fleet operating off its coast?). If it was a missile, most likely is that it's come from Egypt itself, or perhaps a vessel sailing near where contact was lost.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Netflix and Amazon’s video streaming services could be forced to devote “at least” 20 per cent of their catalogues to European films and TV shows as part of an overhaul of the EU’s broadcasting rules.

    Under a Brussels plan to be unveiled next week, video-on-demand groups would also be obliged to “ensure prominence” of any European works, potentially forcing them to replace valuable space on their homepages given to Hollywood blockbusters with French cinema.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4798d428-1d19-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122.html#axzz492lwuKFC

    See?

    Their nuts.

    You still for remain?
    Your misuse of 'their' is keeping me well away from Leavers.
    Oh really? They're nuts?

    Better now?

    Or do you still not see the problem? There is no level of lunacy that the EU will not jump to suit a protectionist mindset. It hurts Europe and the rest of the worlds poor, It doesn't hurt Hollywood much though.
    No, I refuse to engage with anyone who doesn't know the difference between, there, they're, and their.
    Your and You're is my bugbear. Someone wrote "you're investment value can decrease" in some of our literature once. :/
    Its and It's my bugbear
    This was just poor English all around, and it went on some of the literature we send to clients. I remember reading and sending off a scathing email to our marketing department about the quality of writing. It makes us look unprofessional, but apparently being chummy and having shit English is the "in" thing at the moment.
    OK, I'll bite.

    Shit=Noun
    Shitty=Adjective

    So it should be 'shitty English.'
    No it shouldn`t, Mr Bilge. Not at all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    Speculation of missile from Syria or Libya in Le Monde

    Seems (a lot) less likely than (the much more embarrassing) " bomb put on plane in Paris"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    The great City figure Stanislas Yassukovich on why claims the City will suffer after Brexit are wrong


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/18/money-not-eu-membership-is-the-citys-central-tenet/

    Errrr... I've been in the city for over two decades, and I've never heard of him. For people in the city who produce generally excellent Brexit analysis, can I recommend Albert Edwards of ( believe it or not) Societe Generale.
    You've not heard of the one of the greats of White Weld?

    Next you'll be telling me you don't know who Studz is!
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294



    Oh really? They're nuts?

    Better now?

    Or do you still not see the problem? There is no level of lunacy that the EU will not jump to suit a protectionist mindset. It hurts Europe and the rest of the worlds poor, It doesn't hurt Hollywood much though.

    No, I refuse to engage with anyone who doesn't know the difference between, there, they're, and their.
    You've engage in conversation with me before.

    If you really think a typo is a defining factor you're even more small minded than I thought you were.
    Debating with you a waste of my time.

    I'm still waiting for proof of your assertion that the IMF wanted the UK to join the Euro.
    I thought I said the IMF was in favour of the Euro originally but I may be wrong. In any measure the Euro has been an economic disaster for everyone except Germany (and maybe some of the smaller countries) amplified at the southern periphery. The IMF was broadly supportive of the Euro in general when in fact it should have been pointing out that it was a disaster in waiting as Mrs T did in 1989. (When I thought she was wrong on many things though not that.)

    In any case the article you highlighted was originally in the Mail and was a hatchet piece with one quote from the IMF. What I was looking for was some actual IMF document.

    As for debating I suspect you mean baiting.


    One can argue that the Euro made things more difficult but it's hard to contend that it was anything other than foolish government policies and selfish public attitudes that was the root cause of the crisis on in each country that suffered.
    By "selfish public attitudes" I take it you mean the view that people have a right to food in their bellies and a roof over their heads irrespective of how much they contribute to the economy. If so, it is not just the Labour Party which is obsolete but representative democracy itself.

    Earlier in the week Paul Mason likened the EU to the Weimar Republic. If I've understood you aright, you would extend his analogy to most, if not all, elected national governments. And if you're right (I think you may well be) one thing you and others of like mind can do is campaign for the suppression of charities like War on Want, and political parties of the Left, and even churches which promote these "selfish public attitudes".

    At the moment you seem unwilling to follow through the logic of your own beliefs. That may actually be a significant part of the same problem.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    MaxPB said:


    Streuth Stodge.

    I am surprised that you, I and Richard Tyndal are all on the same side of any argument!

    Perhaps we should start a party?

    We'd call it something like "UKIP with brains" or similar.

    How about the "British Liberal Party - This time we're actually liberal"?

    I'd join and donate the same £100 per year!
    We would have to sort out where we stood on immigration.

    We'd also have to storm and occupy the National Liberal club, it is a rather nice club to have after all.
    Any person is free to come to the UK, they will have no access to the NHS or benefits system until they achieve residency. To access healthcare while non-resident a mandatory insurance policy must be purchased or provided by one's employer, this is on top of NICs and can be purchased from the NHS. It's really that simple. That way low skilled/low paid people won't bother as employers will face increased costs for employing someone from overseas or coming to the UK won't be workable on a low wage. Highly skilled people are not discouraged.
    It avoids beauracracy, it's raises money for the treasury, and (most importantly) it doesn't distort price signals in the way that quota systems do.

    Really, what's not to like?

    Edit to add: if you wish to stay more than three months in the UK, you need to purchase compulsory health care insurance.
    Migration policy sorted,

    Permenent right to remain and naturalisation next.

    Then free trade.
    There's another joy about my plan (which has been adopted by MaxPB and others); if economic times are tough, just raise the cost of compulsory health insurance, and ensure a negative flow of migrants.
    Economically this sounds equivalent to a flat-rate immigrant poll tax, except more expensive to administer.
    No. You apply for a work permit, get an NI number and it's all attached to that.
    The beauty is that we wouldn't even need a work permit system as employers become the judges of who is economically viable to bring in and who isn't. We would only need the most basic of background checks to be done to ensure that no criminals and would-be terrorists are entering.
    You could solve that by making the sponsor of a work permit strictly liable for any crimimal offence by one of their candidates
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628

    Speculation of missile from Syria or Libya in Le Monde

    Seems (a lot) less likely than (the much more embarrassing) " bomb put on plane in Paris"
    Sad but more likely to be the latter. Plenty of mil radar in the area (including our own at Akrotiri) that would have spotted a missile.

    Interesting note from the earlier FR24 link is that this flight was two hours' earlier than previously scheduled, the first day of a new timetable. Maybe the intention was to see it go down early on the plane's next flight, hiding the true source of the bomb and blaming the Egyptians again?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171
    New thread folks!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    The great City figure Stanislas Yassukovich on why claims the City will suffer after Brexit are wrong


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/18/money-not-eu-membership-is-the-citys-central-tenet/

    Errrr... I've been in the city for over two decades, and I've never heard of him. For people in the city who produce generally excellent Brexit analysis, can I recommend Albert Edwards of ( believe it or not) Societe Generale.
    I remember him from the Eighties and the Securities Association. Around Big Bang.

    Probably before your time.
    So do I. But then my first financial case was the Guinness scandal which was before any form of regulation. There are people running banks who weren't even born then....... And therein is one of the problems of the City.
    I think that's an exaggeration, Miss Cyclefree!

    Which bank is run by someone who isn't yet 30?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Rod Liddle suspended from labour party for anti-anti-sementic remarks..

    Spoof or link,
    otherwise you stink!
    What is sementic anyway?
    F##king SwiftKey....it keeps doing his bollocks. Deeply unimpressed by the tech having tried it out. Hopefully gboard gets UK release soon.

    Link on previous thread.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7159998/Rod-Liddle-suspended-from-Labour-party-for-saying-anti-semitism-is-rife-among-Muslims.html
    You are forgiven. Give the keys a punch now and then, that'll calm them down.
    Microsoft paid $250 million for the British startup & it just doesn't bloody work. I spent more time u doing its incorrect predictions than I do typing messages.
    Britain has a fine and honourable tradition of selling duff companies to gullible foreigners. Long may it continue.
    The value of some of these tech companies is ludicrous.
    Will/has anything ever topped the valuation of AOL when they merged with Time Warner?
    I once sold 50% of a development project for $1.3 billion*

    The product got to market and achieved peak sales of $27m

    * I didn't own it, unfortunately, but was helping a friend
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Cyclefree said:

    So do I. But then my first financial case was the Guinness scandal which was before any form of regulation. There are people running banks who weren't even born then....... And therein is one of the problems of the City.

    Was it actually a scandal? From the outside, it seemed to be a completely victimless 'crime' based on a novel and dubious interpretation of an obscure law, for which absurdly long sentences - more than people get for violent assaults - were handed down.
    It was fraud, Richard!

    They were attempting to pay for something using a currency that wasn't worth what they pretended it was.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    New FOX poll putting Trump +3 nationally...

    FOX
    5/14 - 5/17
    1,021 Registered Voters
    C42 T45

    Getting interesting...

    We'll probably get the first crossover in the polling averages before the conventions... Clinton' staff must think it's a nightmare.
    Her 30-day median lead is down 2% in barely a week...

    Seems Trump has the Big Mo'
    As you said, at some point President Trump will assume an air of inevitability. At that point it's difficult to make the case that electing a corrupt old has-been is the more compelling future for America.
    Why? Candidates often take the lead after their VP pick and the Convention and Trump is just as old as Hillary. The fact Sanders beats Trump in the same poll confirms there is no enthusiasm for him either
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fox News National (mind you it is Fox)

    Trump 45 Clinton 42

    Trump 42 Sanders 46
    https://twitter.com/foxnews

    Fox's polling has never been particularly biased to the GOP or against Obama, strangely enough.
    It leans GOP on the poll average
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003



    No, I refuse to engage with anyone who doesn't know the difference between, there, they're, and their.

    You've engage in conversation with me before.

    If you really think a typo is a defining factor you're even more small minded than I thought you were.
    Debating with you a waste of my time.

    I'm still waiting for proof of your assertion that the IMF wanted the UK to join the Euro.
    I thought I said the IMF was in favour of the Euro originally but I may be wrong. In any measure the Euro has been an economic disaster for everyone except Germany (and maybe some of the smaller countries) amplified at the southern periphery. The IMF was broadly supportive of the Euro in general when in fact it should have been pointing out that it was a disaster in waiting as Mrs T did in 1989. (When I thought she was wrong on many things though not that.)

    In any case the article you highlighted was originally in the Mail and was a hatchet piece with one quote from the IMF. What I was looking for was some actual IMF document.

    As for debating I suspect you mean baiting.


    One can argue that the Euro made things more difficult but it's hard to contend that it was anything other than foolish government policies and selfish public attitudes that was the root cause of the crisis on in each country that suffered.
    By "selfish public attitudes" I take it you mean the view that people have a right to food in their bellies and a roof over their heads irrespective of how much they contribute to the economy. If so, it is not just the Labour Party which is obsolete but representative democracy itself.

    Earlier in the week Paul Mason likened the EU to the Weimar Republic. If I've understood you aright, you would extend his analogy to most, if not all, elected national governments. And if you're right (I think you may well be) one thing you and others of like mind can do is campaign for the suppression of charities like War on Want, and political parties of the Left, and even churches which promote these "selfish public attitudes".

    At the moment you seem unwilling to follow through the logic of your own beliefs. That may actually be a significant part of the same problem.

    Of course that's what you think I mean. It isn't, of course, but nothing will dissuade you from your view that the Tories, and indeed most parties, are intent on introducing kleptomanic dictatorships. But that's your problem, not mine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    The final 2012 poll from Fox had it tied, Obama won by 3.9%
  • grahambc1grahambc1 Posts: 26
    I* am a Labour member I voted Andy Burnham last time, I would vote Jeremy Corbyn if he is challenged
This discussion has been closed.