CAN PEOPLE STOP ADDING BLOCKQUOTES TO THEIR POSTS. IT IS CAUSING NESTING/QUOTING ISSUES.
I just remove everything except the last person I'm replying to, and remove the other people's names from the top bit. So it's like the first quote. Works well, and doesn't muck anything up.
If so, have you got your postal/proxy vote sorted out for this referendum?
Yeah but I'm thinking about abstaining as I feel a bit guilty voting from overseas (even if I may come back sometime next year). Also I haven't got a clue how I'd vote...
As the longest serving pbTory, I feel it my duty to act as your proxy.
No guarantee you'll make it to the polling place though, especially if a train journey is involved...
...You vote in Bournemouth - gosh, I didn't know that. Even better news is the fare costs 1/3 less now I have my precious over 60s Senior Rail Card.
Also I don't believe ORB's ridiculously low Don't Know percentage.
At least 1 in 3 people I ask has not yet decided. They may have inclinations, but they don't KNOW what way they will vote, not for sure. And many - 15%? - are entirely clueless.
Around 30% are entirely clueless, those are your "definitely won't vote" D/Es/U25s. They don't bother with GEs either.
Also I don't believe ORB's ridiculously low Don't Know percentage.
At least 1 in 3 people I ask has not yet decided. They may have inclinations, but they don't KNOW what way they will vote, not for sure. And many - 15%? - are entirely clueless.
But don't you typically hang around hedonistic young'uns? Probably too drunk to realise there is a referendum on the way
Good article Mr Meeks. It sums up the plight of the Labour Party which unfortunately will have to experience another bad electoral defeat to realise the bleeding obvious- it needs a credible leader that can reach out.
The problem with Corbyn is that he is not credible, like Miliband, and Brown too.
As for tension, the last 40 minutes or so of the race on Sunday was a bit stressful. Kept flicking the commentary off when the commentator (Ben Edwards) kept saying how flawlessly Verstappen was driving.
Not sure there's enough to justify a 5 point shift. Might just be statistical noise, or a rogue.
New TNS poll see sharp move to LEAVE Remain 38 (-1), Leave 41% (+5), DK 21% (-5)
Christ. My heart can't take much more of this.
TNS is one of the few online polls to have Remain ahead, so this might be a reversion to the mean for online pollsters.
As ever with shifts this large, we need to see other polls, so far, it appears to be an outlier, we should be getting the Ipsos Mori poll tomorrow and a ComRes phone some time this week, so we can judge properly then.
I have to say if you had wanted a set of polls that was designed to spread yet more confusion you couldn't have asked for a better set than the ICM, ORB and TNS polls of the last 24 hours. Who the hell can make any conclusions from them?
Tea leaves Richard and look at the data that best suits you
I know a leaver who this morning is convinced Remain are going to win because Farage is already planning for a second referendum.
Yes, but you only ever support anecdotes and information here that supports the Remain case, and you are actively campaigning for Remain.
In the interests of balance would you care to share anything that doesn't paint a rosy picture for Remain?
I have done. Immigration is where Remain and Dave in particular are weak. Yet we've seen no co-ordinated attacks on that front.
I keep on getting told it's the number one concern, so why aren't Leave using it? They prefer to talk about Hitler and talk of conspiracies about the IMF.
"My experience? The under 35s in London and the south-east are overwhelmingly for Remain.
I went on an "AB" stag-do of 14 at the weekend and I was one of only two Leavers, the other only confessing to me in whispers that Obama's intervention had tipped him over the edge. When I confessed to being a strong Leaver I got looks as if I had just confessed to multiple bestial relations with everyone's pet dog.
However, the one other Leaver did become much more audible later on when a bit more alcohol had been consumed and he found out the UK result in the Eurovision Song Contest in the minibus on the way home.
Interestingly, there was one Remainer who was moving to undecided because he felt he'd only heard one side of the argument."
My experience is the same. I've met a couple of young LEAVERS in the last month, and dozens of REMAINIANS.
On the other hand, I have't met a single older LEAVER. The over 55s are massively in favour of OUT - if my anecdotage is anything to go by.
Who the F knows!!?!
The ABs I meet generally don't care that much about the EU other than they think Leave might cost them a bit of cash, and that Leave is delightfully non-U.
The young don't seem to have a clue about why they are Remain other than they don't like the people that support Leave, perhaps a generational thing, and see themselves as progressive and international, and view it as supporting the unity of humanity and Brexit as regressive and isolationist.
I even heard Star Trek thrown in as both an argument and a vision.
If so, have you got your postal/proxy vote sorted out for this referendum?
Yeah but I'm thinking about abstaining as I feel a bit guilty voting from overseas (even if I may come back sometime next year). Also I haven't got a clue how I'd vote...
As the longest serving pbTory, I feel it my duty to act as your proxy.
No guarantee you'll make it to the polling place though, especially if a train journey is involved...
...You vote in Bournemouth - gosh, I didn't know that. Even better news is the fare costs 1/3 less now I have my precious over 60s Senior Rail Card.
That's a pretty crappy golden parachute, I must say...
(hopefully he wound isn't too sore for a bit of jesting!)
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
----------------------------
My conversion to the anti-EU cause dates from around the same time as yours, the early 1990s.
Actually, looking back I think I would have been amazed in the mid-1990s - and even five years ago - that LEAVE could have referendum support of 45-50% today. We've come a long way.
The EU's economic travails - especially the spectacular failure of the euro - must have a lot to do with this.
Younger PBers should understand that in the 1990s, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Heseltine and others were selling us the euro as something that would transform the EU economically into an economic superpower, leaving us becalmed in stagnation if we stayed out. The reality has been utterly different.
Today, Osborne and his cronies are trying to sell us continued EU membership on a similar basis. Perhaps REMAIN's struggle to gain a clear poll lead in part reflects a 'we've heard all this before' mentality on the part of the public.
This message will become ever less credible as the years roll on.
The EU's working population will start to shrink from 2019 on and its transformation into a giant version of Japan will be completed in the decade after. Even within its protectionist system, the share of our exports headed for the EU will continue to shrink, perhaps to as little as 33% by 2030 (outside the share would fall faster).
The EU will almost certainly react to its growing stagnation by trying to extract more resources from its stronger economies, inc. the UK. Direct EU taxation will rear its head - as already floated by Germany.
It may also become more protectionist.
There are also scary things afoot with regard to energy.
The costs of membership will continue to grow, the benefits to dwindle.
As for tension, the last 40 minutes or so of the race on Sunday was a bit stressful. Kept flicking the commentary off when the commentator (Ben Edwards) kept saying how flawlessly Verstappen was driving.
Not sure there's enough to justify a 5 point shift. Might just be statistical noise, or a rogue.
6 weekends - it seems like yesterday when it was 100 days to go.
I should add, on the very young, there are very few Jeffersonian democrats who are au fair with concepts of sovereignty. It seems to be more about being seen to be on the right progressive side of the argument for social proofing.
In this sense I wonder if it is bit like safe-space and no-platforming where free speech takes second place to protecting students from challenging views.
Miss Plato, at least the Scots weren't told they'd be at the back of the queue, and cause total war, and cause the extinction of the human race due to global warming
[Although, obviously, they now have a chance to vote for those things].
As for tension, the last 40 minutes or so of the race on Sunday was a bit stressful. Kept flicking the commentary off when the commentator (Ben Edwards) kept saying how flawlessly Verstappen was driving.
Not sure there's enough to justify a 5 point shift. Might just be statistical noise, or a rogue.
6 weekends - it seems like yesterday when it was 100 days to go.
How did Scotland endure more than a YEAR of this
You mean you missed it on here? Boy those were joyous days. Topped only by the preamble to the glorious AV referendum. Getting all hot and bothered thinking about it.
Also I don't believe ORB's ridiculously low Don't Know percentage.
At least 1 in 3 people I ask has not yet decided. They may have inclinations, but they don't KNOW what way they will vote, not for sure. And many - 15%? - are entirely clueless.
TNS suggests that the don't knows are breaking for Leave. The great escape is still on.
Put simply, they cannot take their party back until their party is ready for them to take it back - and it won't be ready until Corbyn and his kind are discredited. That might happen before 2020; chances are it will be afterwards. The Labour right also need a figure they can rally around. Blair had already proved himself under Kinnock and Smith. At present, there is no such figure. Unfortunately, the difficulty is that it'll be almost impossible for anyone on Labour's right to distinguish themselves at present: either they'll be tied to Corbyn or they'll be disloyal to him. How do you square that circleThere's no love for Corbyn, for the Lib Dems, for UKIP or the Tories among centrist floating voters, so there is a pool to fish in but again, we go back to the questions of what the positive vision of an SDP2 would be, and who would front its message.
I think that's correct, and Alastair's piece sums it up very well. Haven't read the whole thread so not sure if today's poll has been quoted:
Bottom line: members voted for Corbyn because they felt he offered an interesting alternative to the Tories, which is why they joined the party, and nobody else seemed to be doing so, and that remains the case. They are I think open in principle to accepting McDonnell, who is more clubbable, fluent and a traditional politician in both good and bad senses, but only if Jeremy stood down voluntarily, and I'm not convinced the polling difference would be huge, or that right/moderate critics would feel it had advanced matters.
I think that a chunk of members are intellectually interested in alternative ideas IF they aren't coupled with coded attacks on the leadership, and Corbyn is both explicitly and in practice fine with that. It's a cart and horse thing. If X seemed fizzing with interesting concepts that really engaged people, and X then decided to challenge for the leadership, he might have a shot at it. But if X starts by attacking the leadership, most of us just say "STFU, come back when you've something constructive to suggest". Merely saying "I could maybe beat the Tories and do something better" is really not an interesting offer.
Your equanimity in the face of inevitable and heavy defeat in 2020 is now totally understandable. It's all an interesting intellectual exercise. And never mind those left to take their chances under increasingly right wing Tory rule. That's what Labour has become. What a shocking betrayal.
New TNS poll see sharp move to LEAVE Remain 38 (-1), Leave 41% (+5), DK 21% (-5)
Christ. My heart can't take much more of this.
TNS is one of the few online polls to have Remain ahead, so this might be a reversion to the mean for online pollsters.
As ever with shifts this large, we need to see other polls, so far, it appears to be an outlier, we should be getting the Ipsos Mori poll tomorrow and a ComRes phone some time this week, so we can judge properly then.
I have to say if you had wanted a set of polls that was designed to spread yet more confusion you couldn't have asked for a better set than the ICM, ORB and TNS polls of the last 24 hours. Who the hell can make any conclusions from them?
Tea leaves Richard and look at the data that best suits you
I know a leaver who this morning is convinced Remain are going to win because Farage is already planning for a second referendum.
Yes, but you only ever support anecdotes and information here that supports the Remain case, and you are actively campaigning for Remain.
In the interests of balance would you care to share anything that doesn't paint a rosy picture for Remain?
I have done. Immigration is where Remain and Dave in particular are weak. Yet we've seen no co-ordinated attacks on that front.
I keep on getting told it's the number one concern, so why aren't Leave using it? They prefer to talk about Hitler and talk of conspiracies about the IMF.
But yesterday you claimed that if Leave did use it would be a sign of admission of defeat.
Interesting analysis Mr Meeks - and while I agree that it would be foolish to rely on the Mr Micawber option:
Labour rightwingers can also present this to themselves as the Mr Micawber option. In practice, however, there is no particular reason why anything should turn up.
I suspect quite a few things will turn up.
None of us know the state of the Conservative Party, or the government not much over a month from now. 'Weakened' and 'Divided' are both dead certs, but 'badly' or 'disastrously'?
Who will be the PM three months from now?
What will be the state of the economy six months from now?
So, lots of 'events, dear boy, events'.......
PS - it's faintly amusing that Corbyn, who has sucked up to numerous fascist (Galtieri, Saddam, Gaddafi, Eisen) and paramilitary (IRA) organisations, is described as being on the left. Self awareness isn't his long suit, is it? But then Chavez had the same problem.
It's rather GCSE history, but Fascism is not an ideology of the right...
Well - yes and no. It usually starts on the left (Mussolini, Mosley, Drexler, arguably Chavez) but usually by the time it gets into power it is avowedly right-wing and anti-Communist, or has acquired militaristic overtones through army involvement. Hitler and Mussolini, for example, both emphatically identified as right wing on gaining power and among their first acts were to have Communist/Socialist rivals killed.
To argue otherwise is degree level philosophy rather than GCSE history.
Well the Nazis (and I assume Mussolini but don't know) were certainly very keen to eliminate their Communist/Socialist rivals. But surely that was simple power politics - getting rid of rivals with a power base (the unions) and following that could threaten their position.
Did both Hitler and Mussolini "emphatically identify as right wing"? - perhaps a link?
My general contention is that they are a part of the left economically that dresses up in the symbols of nationalism (which are not necessarily right wing - no one has a monopoly on patriotism). The whole Nazis = Right wing claim for Nazism is just clever market positioning by politicians on the left.
So why did so many businessmen finance the Nazis? Why did the likes of the Daily Mail support them? One could say the whole Nazis ≠ extreme right wingers meme is just denial by people on the right.
New TNS poll see sharp move to LEAVE Remain 38 (-1), Leave 41% (+5), DK 21% (-5)
Christ. My heart can't take much more of this.
TNS is one of the few online polls to have Remain ahead, so this might be a reversion to the mean for online pollsters.
As ever with shifts this large, we need to see other polls, so far, it appears to be an outlier, we should be getting the Ipsos Mori poll tomorrow and a ComRes phone some time this week, so we can judge properly then.
I have to say if you had wanted a set of polls that was designed to spread yet more confusion you couldn't have asked for a better set than the ICM, ORB and TNS polls of the last 24 hours. Who the hell can make any conclusions from them?
Tea leaves Richard and look at the data that best suits you
I know a leaver who this morning is convinced Remain are going to win because Farage is already planning for a second referendum.
Yes, but you only ever support anecdotes and information here that supports the Remain case, and you are actively campaigning for Remain.
In the interests of balance would you care to share anything that doesn't paint a rosy picture for Remain?
I have done. Immigration is where Remain and Dave in particular are weak. Yet we've seen no co-ordinated attacks on that front.
I keep on getting told it's the number one concern, so why aren't Leave using it? They prefer to talk about Hitler and talk of conspiracies about the IMF.
But yesterday you claimed that if Leave did use it would be a sign of admission of defeat.
I said if they kept on talking solely about immigration.
They should talk about it alongside other things, as a broad package.
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
Can I just say how outrageous it is that having been told to make cuts the BBC is making cuts? How dare they. It just proves their bias.
Yes of course. Because they couldn't find anywhere else to cut....hmm like spending a load of money on a new logo for a channel that was supposed to be closing, took 2 years extra to close than simply flicking the switch and then rebranded it online so in fact not closing it at all.
And in terms of savings, wiping some recipes off the net doesn't save any money. In fact it probably costs money to action that, especially with all the red tape that is the BBC.
As I said down thread it is like the closing all the public bogs move. It is just designed to get publicity, nothing more. If they were serious about saving money or new remits, there are is far more major reforms, but instead it is get the MumsNet crowd pissed move instead.
This is one of a number of cuts. I suspect there will be plenty more.
It isn't a cut that will save any money...it is pure posturing.
No it is not because the government wants more than cuts. HMG wants the BBC not to engage or compete in many areas. George Osborne (as I posted earlier) explicitly called out recipes on the web. Whittingdale did not say the BBC should axe The Voice to save money, he said they should axe it so as not to compete with ITV and Sky. This is not about money. It was never about money.
New TNS poll see sharp move to LEAVE Remain 38 (-1), Leave 41% (+5), DK 21% (-5)
Christ. My heart can't take much more of this.
TNS is one of the few online polls to have Remain ahead, so this might be a reversion to the mean for online pollsters.
As ever with shifts this large, we need to see other polls, so far, it appears to be an outlier, we should be getting the Ipsos Mori poll tomorrow and a ComRes phone some time this week, so we can judge properly then.
I have to say if you had wanted a set of polls that was designed to spread yet more confusion you couldn't have asked for a better set than the ICM, ORB and TNS polls of the last 24 hours. Who the hell can make any conclusions from them?
Tea leaves Richard and look at the data that best suits you
I know a leaver who this morning is convinced Remain are going to win because Farage is already planning for a second referendum.
Yes, but you only ever support anecdotes and information here that supports the Remain case, and you are actively campaigning for Remain.
In the interests of balance would you care to share anything that doesn't paint a rosy picture for Remain?
I have done. Immigration is where Remain and Dave in particular are weak. Yet we've seen no co-ordinated attacks on that front.
I keep on getting told it's the number one concern, so why aren't Leave using it? They prefer to talk about Hitler and talk of conspiracies about the IMF.
But yesterday you claimed that if Leave did use it would be a sign of admission of defeat.
I said if they kept on talking solely about immigration.
They should talk about it alongside other things, as a broad package.
Interesting to see Charles express emerging right wing political correctness and revisionist history.
Whist his desire to repaint the right as motherhood and apple pie is understandable, I fear that his argument that the far right aren't right wing is a bridge too far.
It is a really tricky one. Fascism is, philosophically and using the pretty much outmoded Left Right political spectrum, a pretty left wing ideology; but practical applications of it have almost always come about through the support of capitalists fed up with closed shop socialism threatening their existence.
I should add, on the very young, there are very few Jeffersonian democrats who are au fair with concepts of sovereignty. It seems to be more about being seen to be on the right progressive side of the argument for social proofing.
In this sense I wonder if it is bit like safe-space and no-platforming where free speech takes second place to protecting students from challenging views.
Actually, from my experience this sort of thing is the preserve of the Poly Wallys. Oxbridge, apart from a few idiotic exceptions, is a bastion of intellectual freedom. Fools want to stick their fingers in their ears to the opposition because they can't bear to hear something that challenges their limited worldview.
The ancient Greek philosopher Plato rejected Athenian democracy on the basis that such democracies were anarchic societies without internal unity, that they followed citizens' impulses rather than pursuing the common good, that larger democracies are unable to allow a sufficient number of their citizens to have their voices heard, and that such democracies were typically run by fools.
Plato claimed that in Athenian democracy, individuals' pursuit of their own desires led to self-centredness and conflict rather than the pursuit of the common good. Due to the citizens being free to pursue their passions, Plato claimed that rational leadership was impossible in Athenian democracy as elected representatives served the citizens' passions.
Did Plato describe the REMAIN camp or the LEAVE camp?
On topic: I agree with Alastair that a mix of options 1 and 5 is the most likely way in which things will pan out.
However, there is a new and I think potentially very significant development for Labour which has not received sufficient attention (people seem to be a bit distracted at the moment..). That development is Sadiq Khan.
Firstly, he really did run an impressive campaign. It was grown-up, and it was well-targetted, and it was effective. I was especially impressed by the way he dealt with the extremism issue: his response ("This is not the Zac I know, etc etc") was both dignified and effective; he avoided rising to the bait, he took sensible steps to mitigate any negative perception, and he even managed to turn it to a net positive. That was despite the Evening Standard pushing the issue against him quite strongly in some articles.
Secondly he pitched his position vis-à-vis Jeremy Corbyn perfectly. Neither too hot nor too cold. Smart politics.
Thirdly, he has hit the ground running now that he actually is mayor, with some substantive policy decisions and some deft political manoeuvring to protect himself from the inevitable problem that reality won't match up to his promises, especially on housing.
Overall, this is the kind of effective, grown-up politics, taking the political initiative rather than simply responding to events, which we haven't seen from senior Labour figures for years. Quite an eye-opener; Sadiq might not match Boris for charisma (who does?), but he's going to establish a significant presence. The Labour right would do very well indeed to coalesce around him as their de facto alternative power base.
That doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be in a good position personally to be the next leader - he would need to be in parliament for that - but others can work with him to reestablish the Labour reputation for competence, and build from that.
Having said that, his current term of office ends on May 5th 2020, just in time potentially to reenter parliament before Corbyn is replaced, perhaps. Jus' saying. Maybe 33/1 isn't a bad deal.
Interesting analysis Mr Meeks - and while I agree that it would be foolish to rely on the Mr Micawber option:
Labour rightwingers can also present this to themselves as the Mr Micawber option. In practice, however, there is no particular reason why anything should turn up.
I suspect quite a few things will turn up.
None of us know the state of the Conservative Party, or the government not much over a month from now. 'Weakened' and 'Divided' are both dead certs, but 'badly' or 'disastrously'?
Who will be the PM three months from now?
What will be the state of the economy six months from now?
So, lots of 'events, dear boy, events'.......
PS - it's faintly amusing that Corbyn, who has sucked up to numerous fascist (Galtieri, Saddam, Gaddafi, Eisen) and paramilitary (IRA) organisations, is described as being on the left. Self awareness isn't his long suit, is it? But then Chavez had the same problem.
It's rather GCSE history, but Fascism is not an ideology of the right...
Well - yes and no. It usually starts on the left (Mussolini, Mosley, Drexler, arguably Chavez) but usually by the time it gets into power it is avowedly right-wing and anti-Communist, or has acquired militaristic overtones through army involvement. Hitler and Mussolini, for example, both emphatically identified as right wing on gaining power and among their first acts were to have Communist/Socialist rivals killed.
To argue otherwise is degree level philosophy rather than GCSE history.
Well the Nazis (and I assume Mussolini but don't know) were certainly very keen to eliminate their Communist/Socialist rivals. But surely that was simple power politics - getting rid of rivals with a power base (the unions) and following that could threaten their position.
Did both Hitler and Mussolini "emphatically identify as right wing"? - perhaps a link?
My general contention is that they are a part of the left economically that dresses up in the symbols of nationalism (which are not necessarily right wing - no one has a monopoly on patriotism). The whole Nazis = Right wing claim for Nazism is just clever market positioning by politicians on the left.
So why did so many businessmen finance the Nazis? Why did the likes of the Daily Mail support them? One could say the whole Nazis ≠ extreme right wingers meme is just denial by people on the right.
Nazism was financed by certain businessmen because social order had broken down in Germany, and they preferred to pick their own mob than be overthrown by someone elses.
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
Yup.
Time until one of the Scot Nats says 'exactly like the IndyRef'....
I think that poll sums up why Chukka pulled out of the contest last time.
The Labour Party really are doomed for at least a decade or so.
A credible leadership is fundamentally important for the success of any political party. Miliband's dire ratings dragged down the parties fortunes. Brown's dire ratings dragged down the parties fortunes.
Labour cannot win a national election with a leader with terrible poll ratings. People will not listen to them. There is no point even having a policy discussion.
New TNS poll see sharp move to LEAVE Remain 38 (-1), Leave 41% (+5), DK 21% (-5)
Christ. My heart can't take much more of this.
TNS is one of the few online polls to have Remain ahead, so this might be a reversion to the mean for online pollsters.
As ever with shifts this large, we need to see other polls, so far, it appears to be an outlier, we should be getting the Ipsos Mori poll tomorrow and a ComRes phone some time this week, so we can judge properly then.
I have to say if you had wanted a set of polls that was designed to spread yet more confusion you couldn't have asked for a better set than the ICM, ORB and TNS polls of the last 24 hours. Who the hell can make any conclusions from them?
Tea leaves Richard and look at the data that best suits you
I know a leaver who this morning is convinced Remain are going to win because Farage is already planning for a second referendum.
Yes, but you only ever support anecdotes and information here that supports the Remain case, and you are actively campaigning for Remain.
In the interests of balance would you care to share anything that doesn't paint a rosy picture for Remain?
I have done. Immigration is where Remain and Dave in particular are weak. Yet we've seen no co-ordinated attacks on that front.
I keep on getting told it's the number one concern, so why aren't Leave using it? They prefer to talk about Hitler and talk of conspiracies about the IMF.
But yesterday you claimed that if Leave did use it would be a sign of admission of defeat.
I said if they kept on talking solely about immigration.
They should talk about it alongside other things, as a broad package.
Such as?
I'd cite the economic risks of the Eurozone. How we might be forced to help in another bailout.
Say George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy was at risk of a Eurozone contagion.
Your equanimity in the face of inevitable and heavy defeat in 2020 is now totally understandable. It's all an interesting intellectual exercise. And never mind those left to take their chances under increasingly right wing Tory rule. That's what Labour has become. What a shocking betrayal.
I think that Labour under Corbyn has a small chance of victory with an attractive (to me) platform. Labour under A.N.Other with no platform does not have a better chance of victory (cf. 2015 - can you remember what our key proposals to change society were? Oh yes, a temporary electricity price freeze), and wouldn't do much useful if he won, except Not Be The Tories. That, to me, is the real betrayal - it sells out the progressive tradition for a purely negative message.
The real crunch is going to be Trident, I think. For some reason that I don't understand, almost everyone on both sides has adopted the issue as the True Test of Faith. It's a sodding weapons system which we can't imagine using, not the Holy Grail or Mein Kampf.
But Richard is right that Khan is an interesting future option - not flashy, but subtle and adroit in handling tricky issues, as well as actually having some policies. Early days but that 33-1 is indeed good value if you don't mind holding the bet to 2020.
@Richard_Nabavi That doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be in a good position personally to be the next leader - he would need to be in parliament for that - but others can work with him to reestablish the Labour reputation for competence, and build from that.
Having said that, his current term of office ends on May 5th 2020, just in time potentially to reenter parliament before Corbyn is replaced, perhaps. Jus' saying. Maybe 33/1 isn't a bad deal.
Good post. Sadiq offers the Labour right wing some hope.
Interesting thing from Oldham and Tooting is that it doesn't yet seem to be affecting parliamentary selections. The non Corbyn 40% are still the Councillors., activists etc. but Jeremy will always win in the phone vote. So actually momentum unlikely to be able to mobilise to de-select setting MPs so we continue to have a PLP and Leadership at loggerheads. Will only change with a real drubbing in a GE, but that could be terminal.
The ancient Greek philosopher Plato rejected Athenian democracy on the basis that such democracies were anarchic societies without internal unity, that they followed citizens' impulses rather than pursuing the common good, that larger democracies are unable to allow a sufficient number of their citizens to have their voices heard, and that such democracies were typically run by fools.
Plato claimed that in Athenian democracy, individuals' pursuit of their own desires led to self-centredness and conflict rather than the pursuit of the common good. Due to the citizens being free to pursue their passions, Plato claimed that rational leadership was impossible in Athenian democracy as elected representatives served the citizens' passions.
Did Plato describe the REMAIN camp or the LEAVE camp?
Of course much more recently there was the contention made that: "the people had no right to do wrong".
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
Yup.
Time until one of the Scot Nats says 'exactly like the IndyRef'....
3 2 1....
It's much more entertaining letting Yoon Brexiteers explain why it's different. 'Yeah, but no, but yeah, it's just DIFFERENT, right!'
'But our membership of the ..... prevents us being able to change huge swathes of law and stops us being able to choose who makes critical decisions which affect all our lives. Laws which govern citizens in this country are decided by politicians from other nations who we never elected and can’t throw out. We can take out our anger on elected representatives in ..... but whoever is in Government in ..... cannot remove or reduce VAT, cannot support a steel plant through troubled times, cannot build the houses we need where they’re needed and cannot deport all the individuals who shouldn’t be in this country. I believe that needs to change. And I believe that both the lessons of our past and the shape of the future make the case for change compelling.'
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
Yup.
Time until one of the Scot Nats says 'exactly like the IndyRef'....
3 2 1....
It's much more entertaining letting Yoon Brexiteers explain why it's different. 'Yeah, but no, but yeah, it's just DIFFERENT, right!'
'But our membership of the ..... prevents us being able to change huge swathes of law and stops us being able to choose who makes critical decisions which affect all our lives. Laws which govern citizens in this country are decided by politicians from other nations who we never elected and can’t throw out. We can take out our anger on elected representatives in ..... but whoever is in Government in ..... cannot remove or reduce VAT, cannot support a steel plant through troubled times, cannot build the houses we need where they’re needed and cannot deport all the individuals who shouldn’t be in this country. I believe that needs to change. And I believe that both the lessons of our past and the shape of the future make the case for change compelling.'
Yes, when will the fine people of Yorkshire get the representation they deserve.
Mr. Divvie, worth noting that one drastic difference is that powers are flowing from London to Edinburgh, whereas in the EU power is becoming more centralised.
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
Yup.
Time until one of the Scot Nats says 'exactly like the IndyRef'....
3 2 1....
It's much more entertaining letting Yoon Brexiteers explain why it's different. 'Yeah, but no, but yeah, it's just DIFFERENT, right!'
Bit like SNP REMAINers.....this Union good, that Union bad....
@runnymede" "Given the political trajectory the EU is on, and its economic dysfunctionality, there is no way this issue will go away."
Quite right and if Remain wins the vote it does not mean that those who believe that the UK would be a better to place if it left the EU will suddenly change their beliefs.
I became convinced that the EU was bad for the UK at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, a very minority view at that time, and since then I have been quietly and gently arguing my point at every suitable opportunity. Now, it would seem that my view is mainstream if not actually a majority one. If remain wins I'll carry on as I have been for the past 20-odd years and I expect that they stupidities of the EU hierarchy will win more people over to the Better Off Out position over the next few years.
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
One of the advantages of this vote is that it has compelled people to listen and take a view on the EU, which they will carry forward as a prism through which to filter their opinion of future developments of the EU.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
Yup.
Time until one of the Scot Nats says 'exactly like the IndyRef'....
3 2 1....
It's much more entertaining letting Yoon Brexiteers explain why it's different. 'Yeah, but no, but yeah, it's just DIFFERENT, right!'
'But our membership of the ..... prevents us being able to change huge swathes of law and stops us being able to choose who makes critical decisions which affect all our lives. Laws which govern citizens in this country are decided by politicians from other nations who we never elected and can’t throw out. We can take out our anger on elected representatives in ..... but whoever is in Government in ..... cannot remove or reduce VAT, cannot support a steel plant through troubled times, cannot build the houses we need where they’re needed and cannot deport all the individuals who shouldn’t be in this country. I believe that needs to change. And I believe that both the lessons of our past and the shape of the future make the case for change compelling.'
Just as much fun is watching Zoomers argue that a union isn't actually a bad thing unless...
Your equanimity in the face of inevitable and heavy defeat in 2020 is now totally understandable. It's all an interesting intellectual exercise. And never mind those left to take their chances under increasingly right wing Tory rule. That's what Labour has become. What a shocking betrayal.
I think that Labour under Corbyn has a small chance of victory with an attractive (to me) platform. Labour under A.N.Other with no platform does not have a better chance of victory (cf. 2015 - can you remember what our key proposals to change society were? Oh yes, a temporary electricity price freeze), and wouldn't do much useful if he won, except Not Be The Tories. That, to me, is the real betrayal - it sells out the progressive tradition for a purely negative message.
The real crunch is going to be Trident, I think. For some reason that I don't understand, almost everyone on both sides has adopted the issue as the True Test of Faith. It's a sodding weapons system which we can't imagine using, not the Holy Grail or Mein Kampf.
But Richard is right that Khan is an interesting future option - not flashy, but subtle and adroit in handling tricky issues, as well as actually having some policies. Early days but that 33-1 is indeed good value if you don't mind holding the bet to 2020.
Trident is a proxy for unilateral disarmament which has been a talismanic issue in the Labour Party since the 1950s.
Your equanimity in the face of inevitable and heavy defeat in 2020 is now totally understandable. It's all an interesting intellectual exercise. And never mind those left to take their chances under increasingly right wing Tory rule. That's what Labour has become. What a shocking betrayal.
I think that Labour under Corbyn has a small chance of victory with an attractive (to me) platform. Labour under A.N.Other with no platform does not have a better chance of victory (cf. 2015 - can you remember what our key proposals to change society were? Oh yes, a temporary electricity price freeze), and wouldn't do much useful if he won, except Not Be The Tories. That, to me, is the real betrayal - it sells out the progressive tradition for a purely negative message.
The real crunch is going to be Trident, I think. For some reason that I don't understand, almost everyone on both sides has adopted the issue as the True Test of Faith. It's a sodding weapons system which we can't imagine using, not the Holy Grail or Mein Kampf.
But Richard is right that Khan is an interesting future option - not flashy, but subtle and adroit in handling tricky issues, as well as actually having some policies. Early days but that 33-1 is indeed good value if you don't mind holding the bet to 2020.
Isn't a practical problem with Khan that the end of his term will coincide with the 2020 GE, so he'd have to stand down after one term in order to run for parliament if he's to be in the frame as next leader? And with Labour highly likely to win the mayoralty in 2020 on a GE turnout and with a GE campaign overshadowing London's, it'd be a big gamble on Khan's part to do so. he's young enough that the timetable for 2024/5 works out a lot better.
But I'd disagree with your main point: Labour has as near to no chance of winning 2020 as makes any meaningful difference under Corbyn. Whether with enthusiasm or not, they'll back the Tories against the risk that he poses. Security and Britishness are two issues but the killer will be the economy. Come the next election, depending on whether there's been another recession, the Tories will either say "job done on austerity; trust us now to continue to manage growth and employment", or "we should have cut even faster to solve the problem before the recession hit; we were right and Labour was wrong". I don't see how Labour answers either case to the floating voter concerned about their own job and income.
Re Trident, question is, can you imagine North Korea, Iran or some other rogue state using nuclear weapons? If so, why would it be so hard to imagine Britain using a proportionate response.
Just as much fun is watching Zoomers argue that a union isn't actually a bad thing unless...
A union isn't actually a bad thing unless it vastly restricts the sovereignty of one's own country compared to every sovereign country in or out of the EU. Pretty simple.
Also I don't believe ORB's ridiculously low Don't Know percentage.
At least 1 in 3 people I ask has not yet decided. They may have inclinations, but they don't KNOW what way they will vote, not for sure. And many - 15%? - are entirely clueless.
TNS suggests that the don't knows are breaking for Leave. The great escape is still on.
Leave should park vans at every polling station blasting out the great escape theme guaranteed win - escaping from Gerry to get our freedom its in our psyche
Yes, when will the fine people of Yorkshire get the representation they deserve.
Since they've never been a country and seem unwilling to embrace the idea of becoming one, never I guess. Edit: though that implies that currently they have precisely the representation they deserve.
Your equanimity in the face of inevitable and heavy defeat in 2020 is now totally understandable. It's all an interesting intellectual exercise. And never mind those left to take their chances under increasingly right wing Tory rule. That's what Labour has become. What a shocking betrayal.
I think that Labour under Corbyn has a small chance of victory with an attractive (to me) platform. Labour under A.N.Other with no platform does not have a better chance of victory (cf. 2015 - can you remember what our key proposals to change society were? Oh yes, a temporary electricity price freeze), and wouldn't do much useful if he won, except Not Be The Tories. That, to me, is the real betrayal - it sells out the progressive tradition for a purely negative message.
The real crunch is going to be Trident, I think. For some reason that I don't understand, almost everyone on both sides has adopted the issue as the True Test of Faith. It's a sodding weapons system which we can't imagine using, not the Holy Grail or Mein Kampf.
But Richard is right that Khan is an interesting future option - not flashy, but subtle and adroit in handling tricky issues, as well as actually having some policies. Early days but that 33-1 is indeed good value if you don't mind holding the bet to 2020.
Isn't a practical problem with Khan that the end of his term will coincide with the 2020 GE, so he'd have to stand down after one term in order to run for parliament if he's to be in the frame as next leader? And with Labour highly likely to win the mayoralty in 2020 on a GE turnout and with a GE campaign overshadowing London's, it'd be a big gamble on Khan's part to do so. he's young enough that the timetable for 2024/5 works out a lot better.
But I'd disagree with your main point: Labour has as near to no chance of winning 2020 as makes any meaningful difference under Corbyn. Whether with enthusiasm or not, they'll back the Tories against the risk that he poses. Security and Britishness are two issues but the killer will be the economy. Come the next election, depending on whether there's been another recession, the Tories will either say "job done on austerity; trust us now to continue to manage growth and employment", or "we should have cut even faster to solve the problem before the recession hit; we were right and Labour was wrong". I don't see how Labour answers either case to the floating voter concerned about their own job and income.
Re Trident, question is, can you imagine North Korea, Iran or some other rogue state using nuclear weapons? If so, why would it be so hard to imagine Britain using a proportionate response.
Quite so. If the EU try and snatch our UN Security Council seat, we could nuke Strasbourg as a proportionate response.
"The Left Democratic Front (LDF) will win 79 seats in Kerala state to defeat the ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front, which will get 57 seats, the exit polls show." (BBC)
The Venn diagram keeps getting more complicated. Is it inconsistent to support Scottish independence, remaining in the EU, but oppose a more integrated Islamic State? Can you oppose ISIS but be a unionist?
Cameron should have just said "ISIS (or our enemies) would like to see us divided" or something like that. Rather than specifically linking it to Brexit.
I have to go out again, and I've just come in too.
I have just this to say about the Elite propagandists for remain. Burn them like Daenerys Targaryen did to the Khals. Season 6/4. If you missed last night you've lost the plot.
Comments
The problem with Corbyn is that he is not credible, like Miliband, and Brown too.
As for tension, the last 40 minutes or so of the race on Sunday was a bit stressful. Kept flicking the commentary off when the commentator (Ben Edwards) kept saying how flawlessly Verstappen was driving.
Not sure there's enough to justify a 5 point shift. Might just be statistical noise, or a rogue.
I keep on getting told it's the number one concern, so why aren't Leave using it? They prefer to talk about Hitler and talk of conspiracies about the IMF.
The young don't seem to have a clue about why they are Remain other than they don't like the people that support Leave, perhaps a generational thing, and see themselves as progressive and international, and view it as supporting the unity of humanity and Brexit as regressive and isolationist.
I even heard Star Trek thrown in as both an argument and a vision.
(hopefully he wound isn't too sore for a bit of jesting!)
Leave aside, if you will, the ideological Europhiles, there are I think a significant number of people who don't like the EU but on balance think the economic benefits of staying in outweigh the negative aspects and the unknowns of voting to leave. Over the coming years that number will gradually reduce as the EU becomes ever more intrusive and economically scroletic. That will lead to a majority wishing to leave, the issue will not be settled by this referendum.
----------------------------
My conversion to the anti-EU cause dates from around the same time as yours, the early 1990s.
Actually, looking back I think I would have been amazed in the mid-1990s - and even five years ago - that LEAVE could have referendum support of 45-50% today. We've come a long way.
The EU's economic travails - especially the spectacular failure of the euro - must have a lot to do with this.
Younger PBers should understand that in the 1990s, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Heseltine and others were selling us the euro as something that would transform the EU economically into an economic superpower, leaving us becalmed in stagnation if we stayed out. The reality has been utterly different.
Today, Osborne and his cronies are trying to sell us continued EU membership on a similar basis. Perhaps REMAIN's struggle to gain a clear poll lead in part reflects a 'we've heard all this before' mentality on the part of the public.
This message will become ever less credible as the years roll on.
The EU's working population will start to shrink from 2019 on and its transformation into a giant version of Japan will be completed in the decade after. Even within its protectionist system, the share of our exports headed for the EU will continue to shrink, perhaps to as little as 33% by 2030 (outside the share would fall faster).
The EU will almost certainly react to its growing stagnation by trying to extract more resources from its stronger economies, inc. the UK. Direct EU taxation will rear its head - as already floated by Germany.
It may also become more protectionist.
There are also scary things afoot with regard to energy.
The costs of membership will continue to grow, the benefits to dwindle.
How did Scotland endure more than a YEAR of this
In this sense I wonder if it is bit like safe-space and no-platforming where free speech takes second place to protecting students from challenging views.
(hopefully he wound isn't too sore for a bit of jesting!)
Goodness no!! Jest away.
[Although, obviously, they now have a chance to vote for those things].
I even heard Star Trek thrown in as both an argument and a vision.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I watched some old Blakes 7 stories with my 12-year old recently. He asked me 'is the EU like the Federation?'
What could I say....:)
Have the phone pollsters got the right mix between mobile and fixed phone line users?
Are the online pollsters adjusting correctly for those without internet?
Are each of them correctly assessing turnout mix?
They should talk about it alongside other things, as a broad package.
IMHO Remain are at risk of winning the referendum, but losing the argument.
I hope I make it down to the polling station in July... or was it August???
Mr. 1000, Doom's not my cup of tea, but from what I've seen people are really rather liking it.
Plato claimed that in Athenian democracy, individuals' pursuit of their own desires led to self-centredness and conflict rather than the pursuit of the common good. Due to the citizens being free to pursue their passions, Plato claimed that rational leadership was impossible in Athenian democracy as elected representatives served the citizens' passions.
Did Plato describe the REMAIN camp or the LEAVE camp?
However, there is a new and I think potentially very significant development for Labour which has not received sufficient attention (people seem to be a bit distracted at the moment..). That development is Sadiq Khan.
Firstly, he really did run an impressive campaign. It was grown-up, and it was well-targetted, and it was effective. I was especially impressed by the way he dealt with the extremism issue: his response ("This is not the Zac I know, etc etc") was both dignified and effective; he avoided rising to the bait, he took sensible steps to mitigate any negative perception, and he even managed to turn it to a net positive. That was despite the Evening Standard pushing the issue against him quite strongly in some articles.
Secondly he pitched his position vis-à-vis Jeremy Corbyn perfectly. Neither too hot nor too cold. Smart politics.
Thirdly, he has hit the ground running now that he actually is mayor, with some substantive policy decisions and some deft political manoeuvring to protect himself from the inevitable problem that reality won't match up to his promises, especially on housing.
Overall, this is the kind of effective, grown-up politics, taking the political initiative rather than simply responding to events, which we haven't seen from senior Labour figures for years. Quite an eye-opener; Sadiq might not match Boris for charisma (who does?), but he's going to establish a significant presence. The Labour right would do very well indeed to coalesce around him as their de facto alternative power base.
That doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be in a good position personally to be the next leader - he would need to be in parliament for that - but others can work with him to reestablish the Labour reputation for competence, and build from that.
Having said that, his current term of office ends on May 5th 2020, just in time potentially to reenter parliament before Corbyn is replaced, perhaps. Jus' saying. Maybe 33/1 isn't a bad deal.
Headlines are routinely being churned out on the basis of 80+% turnout polls, when 10/10 to vote is far closer to general election levels.
That said, The Last Of Us is a PS4 exclusive. Not a fan of platform-exclusivity, but that is arguably the best game ever made.
Edited extra bit: I meant the Remastered version, of course, the original being PS3 only.
I reviewed the Remastered edition here: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/review-last-of-us-remastered-ps4.html
3
2
1....
How much smack is she laying down this year?
http://labourlist.org/2016/05/corbyn-in-strongest-position-yet-as-members-believe-he-is-headed-for-downing-street/
I think that poll sums up why Chukka pulled out of the contest last time.
The Labour Party really are doomed for at least a decade or so.
A credible leadership is fundamentally important for the success of any political party. Miliband's dire ratings dragged down the parties fortunes. Brown's dire ratings dragged down the parties fortunes.
Labour cannot win a national election with a leader with terrible poll ratings. People will not listen to them. There is no point even having a policy discussion.
Say George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy was at risk of a Eurozone contagion.
The real crunch is going to be Trident, I think. For some reason that I don't understand, almost everyone on both sides has adopted the issue as the True Test of Faith. It's a sodding weapons system which we can't imagine using, not the Holy Grail or Mein Kampf.
But Richard is right that Khan is an interesting future option - not flashy, but subtle and adroit in handling tricky issues, as well as actually having some policies. Early days but that 33-1 is indeed good value if you don't mind holding the bet to 2020.
@Richard_Nabavi
That doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be in a good position personally to be the next leader - he would need to be in parliament for that - but others can work with him to reestablish the Labour reputation for competence, and build from that.
Having said that, his current term of office ends on May 5th 2020, just in time potentially to reenter parliament before Corbyn is replaced, perhaps. Jus' saying. Maybe 33/1 isn't a bad deal.
Good post. Sadiq offers the Labour right wing some hope.
https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/722792891425230850
'Yeah, but no, but yeah, it's just DIFFERENT, right!'
'But our membership of the ..... prevents us being able to change huge swathes of law and stops us being able to choose who makes critical decisions which affect all our lives. Laws which govern citizens in this country are decided by politicians from other nations who we never elected and can’t throw out. We can take out our anger on elected representatives in ..... but whoever is in Government in ..... cannot remove or reduce VAT, cannot support a steel plant through troubled times, cannot build the houses we need where they’re needed and cannot deport all the individuals who shouldn’t be in this country. I believe that needs to change. And I believe that both the lessons of our past and the shape of the future make the case for change compelling.'
"Ensign Kim: take off your clothes."
(*No, not that)
But I'd disagree with your main point: Labour has as near to no chance of winning 2020 as makes any meaningful difference under Corbyn. Whether with enthusiasm or not, they'll back the Tories against the risk that he poses. Security and Britishness are two issues but the killer will be the economy. Come the next election, depending on whether there's been another recession, the Tories will either say "job done on austerity; trust us now to continue to manage growth and employment", or "we should have cut even faster to solve the problem before the recession hit; we were right and Labour was wrong". I don't see how Labour answers either case to the floating voter concerned about their own job and income.
Re Trident, question is, can you imagine North Korea, Iran or some other rogue state using nuclear weapons? If so, why would it be so hard to imagine Britain using a proportionate response.
Quark
Dr Julian Bashir
Wes Crusher
On the opposite end, I think my favourite must be Garak, despite how little he is in it.
Small yield, natch.
Your choice of four letter word is controversially polite.
Mr. Meeks, Wesley was annoying but we did get to see Picard's contempt for him.
Neelix was irksome but at least possessed a personality.
Quark's a bit so-so, and Bashir was one half of the entire franchise's greatest romance.
Mr. D, Garak's excellent. Gul Dukat's pretty good too.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/732527409984081920
"The Left Democratic Front (LDF) will win 79 seats in Kerala state to defeat the ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front, which will get 57 seats, the exit polls show." (BBC)
Beautiful part of the world, too.
https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/732529303871754240
Master Strategy from Dave
Unfortunately we had to invent a whole new category for Ted.
I have just this to say about the Elite propagandists for remain.
Burn them like Daenerys Targaryen did to the Khals. Season 6/4. If you missed last night you've lost the plot.
As Sir Edward Heath put it, The Conservative Party consists of shits, bloody shits and fucking shits
Excellent comrade.