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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big EURef advertising news is that the Saatchis are bac

SystemSystem Posts: 11,723
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big EURef advertising news is that the Saatchis are back

I noticed last week that Peter Marsh had died. He was a larger than life self publicist and showman and unlike most advertisers who believed in letting their work sell the agency he believed that selling himself sold the work. A big fan of Thatcher his agency was the fastest growing in the 80’s. His ads were recognisable by a catchy jingle and a showy campaign.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Me_Me_ Posts: 66
    First?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Second :D
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    edited May 2016
    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    edited May 2016
    Fourth but who cares cause Benedict's Back! :open_mouth:
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    THE EU ISN'T WORKING!

    BRITAIN IS BETTER OFF OUTSIDE EUROPE!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    edited May 2016
    On topic, very interesting tweet by Dominic Cummings, because Patrick Wintour notes, it breaks most rules of political campaigning

    https://twitter.com/odysseanproject/status/731209359989063681
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    Thanks Roger for another interesting piece.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Interesting article. Some industries have a particular view. It's interesting to see which way the wind blows in advertising. Boris does seem to cut through in ways others just don't. Getting out on a John Major style campaign is great.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    Damn......I've just realised why my attempts with the fairer sex failed.

    Winking at a beautiful girl in the dark.

    Roger's advertising analysis of events are great, and intuitive. I often wondered why people have spent so much money on advertising, but Roger's articles make me understand the process much more.




  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    I fear we could become as poor as Switzerland who are also outside of the EU.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    Good stuff. The old Benedict is back, well, and has not lost his conservative, analysis.

    Anyway, I'm off to bed. We are an hour ahead of you in Italy.
    BenedictWhite said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    I fear we could become as poor as Switzerland who are also outside of the EU.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, very interesting tweet by Dominic Cummings, because Patrick Wintour notes, it breaks most rules of political campaigning

    I think he has a point.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BenedictWhite said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    I fear we could become as poor as Switzerland who are also outside of the EU.
    Or perhaps we could be like Albania as Mr Gove suggests?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    I do admire your Chutzpah TSE. DC's ratings have plummeted since he has been at the helm of this campaign.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    I do admire your Chutzpah TSE. DC's ratings have plummeted since he has been at the helm of this campaign.
    It's not chutzpah, it's about the next Tory leadership race, which might well start in 42 days time.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    I do admire your Chutzpah TSE. DC's ratings have plummeted since he has been at the helm of this campaign.
    It's not chutzpah, it's about the next Tory leadership race, which might well start in 42 days time.
    I thought it had kicked off a while back.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    I do admire your Chutzpah TSE. DC's ratings have plummeted since he has been at the helm of this campaign.
    It's not chutzpah, it's about the next Tory leadership race, which might well start in 42 days time.
    I thought it had kicked off a while back.
    Unofficially yes, officially no.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Perhaps Saatchi could improve this one?

    https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/731232634479738882
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    I have a great deal of admiration for Roger through his articles. We all know his views from his comments in the threads and it is fair to say they are pretty much diametrically opposed to my own. But you would be hard pressed to tell his views from his articles where he is a model of circumspection and neutrality.

    Yet another informative and balanced article. Many thanks Roger.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Associated Industries Florida general election

    General Election:
    Hillary Clinton: 49%
    Donald Trump: 36%
    Other/Unsure: 15%

    Donald Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable:
    All Voters: 33%/62%
    Republicans: 55%/38%
    Independents/Third Party: 33%/67%
    Females: 31%/63%
    Whites: 41%/54%
    Hispanics: 10%/87%
    Under 50: 22%/74%
    51 and Over: 42%/54%

    Hillary Clinton: Favorable/Unfavorable:
    All Voters: 46%/52%
    Democrats: 80%/18%
    Independents/Third Party: 45%/53%
    Females: 52%/47%
    Whites: 36%/62%
    Hispanics: 48%/50%
    Under 50: 44%/54%
    51 and Over: 47%/52%
    http://static.politico.com/00/fd/3b66ba454039b21f6797f039096e/april28-lge-600-final-slides.pdf
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    It will be intriguing to see the advertising produced by the Saatchi brothers.

    Really politically speaking the Remain Tories like Cameron & Osborne can kill off Boris whilst also winning for Remain. I believe intrinsically Boris has made a huge mistake in getting involved with Leave and his complete lack of coherent strategy belies the void at the heart of Leave.

    Remain has been labelled "project fear" by its detractors but Leave by not constructing an effective alternative have lost the media campaign so far. I don't sense yet that people have fully decided one way or the other but when the final furlong comes into play and animal spirits kick in I expect a healthy Remain victory. Remain is the status quo and as such it will always rest on the alternative Leave to spell out, what the alternative means. I think the direct impact of things being taken away if the UK Leaves is an incentive for the wavering voter to back Remain. Even things like EHIC are important to voters who cannot get travel insurance for pre-existing medical conditions. As we have seen with TV licences for the elderly, the politics of benefits being taken away is potent.

    So, Harold Wilson's observation in his devaluation address "about the pound in your pocket or purse" has a bearing on this referendum in that it will be the financial consequences that will focus minds. I do think the Remain campaign need to hone their message, saying each household will be £4,600 worse off is bad but it is too impersonal. People need to feel they are going to get hit hard directly and that is where the margins of victory will lie. People say a picture is worth a thousand words, it will be interesting to see what the ad men present!



  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,456
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Frank Field really struggling on newsnight. Paxman wouldn't have let him off like that!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
    Sub-optimal, but that's why he brought in Barack Obama, who has even better ratings than Boris.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Casino_Royale said:

    Perhaps Saatchi could improve this one?

    https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/731232634479738882

    That is fantastically awful....
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
    Pray, what is the comparable drop for our glorious PM?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
    Pray, what is the comparable drop for our glorious PM?
    Nil in that same time frame.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
    Sub-optimal, but that's why he brought in Barack Obama, who has even better ratings than Boris.
    You told us David Cameron was a lightning rod for swing voters.

    Turns out he isn't.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
    Pray, what is the comparable drop for our glorious PM?
    Nil in that same time frame.
    And the level?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    whistling innocently.....

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731240757227573248
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
    Sub-optimal, but that's why he brought in Barack Obama, who has even better ratings than Boris.
    You told us David Cameron was a lightning rod for swing voters.

    Turns out he isn't.
    There's other polling that shows that he is.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,456
    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
    Pray, what is the comparable drop for our glorious PM?
    That wasn't the question but he has fallen due to loss of support of the right of the conservative party
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    The_Taxman said:


    So, Harold Wilson's observation in his devaluation address "about the pound in your pocket or purse" has a bearing on this referendum in that it will be the financial consequences that will focus minds. I do think the Remain campaign need to hone their message, saying each household will be £4,600 worse off is bad but it is too impersonal. People need to feel they are going to get hit hard directly and that is where the margins of victory will lie. People say a picture is worth a thousand words, it will be interesting to see what the ad men present!

    The problem with the £4600 figure (Which you misquote, it is actually £4300) is that it is wrong, and can be argued as such, if only leave could find someone who isn't shouty who could use a calculator.

    See here http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2016/04/osbornes-accountancy-is-very-creative.html

    And here

    http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-oecds-creative-accounting-on-brexit.html
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
    Pray, what is the comparable drop for our glorious PM?
    Nil in that same time frame.
    And the level?
    Boris is plus 6, Cameron's net rating is nil.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
    Sub-optimal, but that's why he brought in Barack Obama, who has even better ratings than Boris.
    You told us David Cameron was a lightning rod for swing voters.

    Turns out he isn't.
    There's other polling that shows that he is.
    Ah, I see. You don't like this polling.

    Understood.
  • Options
    LewisDuckworthLewisDuckworth Posts: 379

    Cameron called on Obama
    To supply Remain's clinching drama
    It should have worked well
    And put Leave in hell
    But, instead, it brought perverse karma
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    edited May 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
    Sub-optimal, but that's why he brought in Barack Obama, who has even better ratings than Boris.
    You told us David Cameron was a lightning rod for swing voters.

    Turns out he isn't.
    There's other polling that shows that he is.
    Ah, I see. You don't like this polling.

    Understood.
    I don't dislike this polling, it's always useful to look at more than just one poll.

    We should be getting a plethora of EU referendum polling with assorted supplementaries in the next week, including at least three public phone polls.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    A comparison of two YouGov polls for Good Morning Britain, one at the start of April and one this past weekend, show that in the past few weeks Boris Johnson's trust on the issue of the EU has fallen by six percentage points, from 36% to 30%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/eu-referendum-trust-boris-slides/
    And how do you feel about David Cameron's trust ratings amongst swing voters in the EU ref being right at the bottom?
    Sub-optimal, but that's why he brought in Barack Obama, who has even better ratings than Boris.
    You told us David Cameron was a lightning rod for swing voters.

    Turns out he isn't.
    There's other polling that shows that he is.
    Ah, I see. You don't like this polling.

    Understood.
    I don't dislike this polling, it's always useful to look at more than just one poll.

    We should be getting a plethora of EU referendum polling with assorted supplementaries in the next week, including at least three public phone polls.
    Yes, it will be interesting to see.

    To be honest, I'm not sure the electorate can withstand this level of pummelling: the pounding from Remain is intense, unyielding and relentless. The BBC is good at giving billing to the right headlines, and we have another 40 days of it.

    I think everyone will be glad when it's over.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    You use the tinder app, she if she's on there, and woo her with a subtle chat up line.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    We should be getting a plethora of EU referendum polling with assorted supplementaries in the next week, including at least three public phone polls.

    That should be very interesting. I do hope leave is ahead, I can't wait to hear what levels of apocalypse will follow Brexit if it is.
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Casino_Royale said:

    Yes, it will be interesting to see.

    To be honest, I'm not sure the electorate can withstand this level of pummelling: the pounding from Remain is intense, unyielding and relentless. The BBC is good at giving billing to the right headlines, and we have another 40 days of it.

    I think everyone will be glad when it's over.

    I met someone from someone from Vote Leave earlier on this week, he said he now knows how Labour felt at the last general election, when the Tories kept on with their relentless message discipline about the long term economic plan.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    You use the tinder app, she if she's on there, and woo her with a subtle chat up line.
    Ah right. I don't need the info myself but I'll bear it in mind in case any mature gentlemen of my acquaintance need guidance.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,671
    Advertising is important, especially when you're selling something people aren't particularly interested in (politics). However, I don't think it's the be all and the end all, because the advertising agency won't be deciding the overall communications strategy, merely trying to find creative ways of expressing the existing messages and attack lines. Therefore they can only really boost a successful strategy or double down on a poor one.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    You use the tinder app, she if she's on there, and woo her with a subtle chat up line.
    Ah right. I don't need the info myself but I'll bear it in mind in case any mature gentlemen of my acquaintance need guidance.
    Apparently this is the app mature gentlemen use

    https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/sugard-1-sugar-daddy-dating/id986625265?mt=8
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    You use the tinder app, she if she's on there, and woo her with a subtle chat up line.
    Surely just send a photo of your genitals? What more introduction is needed?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Apparently this is the app mature gentlemen use

    https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/sugard-1-sugar-daddy-dating/id986625265?mt=8

    Ah yes, that looks more like it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    You use the tinder app, she if she's on there, and woo her with a subtle chat up line.
    Surely just send a photo of your genitals? What more introduction is needed?
    I prefer the subtle approach.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Apparently this is the app mature gentlemen use

    https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/sugard-1-sugar-daddy-dating/id986625265?mt=8

    Ah yes, that looks more like it.
    Just tell them not to login to the app via Facebook, more than one gentleman, who purely has facebook to interact with his grandchildren, managed to post details of whom he was going to sugar daddy and when.

    Said gentleman are also known to be facebook friends with their wives.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Apparently this is the app mature gentlemen use

    https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/sugard-1-sugar-daddy-dating/id986625265?mt=8

    Ah yes, that looks more like it.
    Just tell them not to login to the app via Facebook, more than one gentleman, who purely has facebook to interact with his grandchildren, managed to post details of whom he was going to sugar daddy and when.

    Said gentleman are also known to be facebook friends with their wives.
    Said gentlemen were clearly not thinking straight when they logged in with FB. :D
  • Options
    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    edited May 2016
    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    Closer to greatness than shitty city will ever be.

    [Edit or am I mixing you up with the other Bradfordian on here?]
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    VapidBilge said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
    Welcome to past Glories my friend,all you have is memories,crap in the lower leagues isn't it ;-)

  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another interesting piece Roger.

    I do have a view on this bit

    No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.

    With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.

    Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th

    I might have agreed with you.

    Until I saw that polling on David Cameron's appeal to swing voters on this issue.

    I was very surprised, by contrast, at Boris.
    I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
    You have evidence for that, or is it a hypothesis?
    9th May you gov poll. Rating dropped 6% from 36 to 30 since start of campaign
    Pray, what is the comparable drop for our glorious PM?
    Nil in that same time frame.
    And the level?
    Boris is plus 6, Cameron's net rating is nil.
    Thanks; I was out and couldn't read the info myself!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/11/imitation-uzi-was-in-car-in-which-man-was-shot-dead-by-police-jury-told

    It seems totally wrong that the plod officer is still in limbo.
  • Options
    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Tykejohnno said:

    VapidBilge said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
    Welcome to past Glories my friend,all you have is memories,crap in the lower leagues isn't it ;-)

    Pissant little Yorkshire clubs like you and the dog botherers always make me laugh. Obsessed.

    Oh, and 3 titles.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/11/imitation-uzi-was-in-car-in-which-man-was-shot-dead-by-police-jury-told

    It seems totally wrong that the plod officer is still in limbo.

    They have been in limbo a lot longer than that.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    BenedictWhite said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/11/imitation-uzi-was-in-car-in-which-man-was-shot-dead-by-police-jury-told

    It seems totally wrong that the plod officer is still in limbo.

    They have been in limbo a lot longer than that.
    I meant in general. I totally understand the shooting being investigated etc, but it shouldn't take 6+ months to work out if the plod did their job properly.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    BenedictWhite said:

    The problem with the £4600 figure (Which you misquote, it is actually £4300) is that it is wrong, and can be argued as such, if only leave could find someone who isn't shouty who could use a calculator.

    See here http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2016/04/osbornes-accountancy-is-very-creative.html

    And here

    http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-oecds-creative-accounting-on-brexit.html

    Here's a tip: calling the Chancellor 'Boy George', and incorrectly stating that he claimed 'his figures' (by which I think you mean the Treasury's figures) are accurate, hardly helps your credibility.

    Still, it's a good try. It took me over 45 seconds to figure out the flaw in your argument.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/11/imitation-uzi-was-in-car-in-which-man-was-shot-dead-by-police-jury-told

    It seems totally wrong that the plod officer is still in limbo.

    They have been in limbo a lot longer than that.
    I meant in general. I totally understand the shooting being investigated etc, but it shouldn't take 6+ months to work out if the plod did their job properly.
    In some cases it can take 8 years. (And counting)
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    The problem with the £4600 figure (Which you misquote, it is actually £4300) is that it is wrong, and can be argued as such, if only leave could find someone who isn't shouty who could use a calculator.

    See here http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2016/04/osbornes-accountancy-is-very-creative.html

    And here

    http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-oecds-creative-accounting-on-brexit.html

    Here's a tip: calling the Chancellor 'Boy George', and incorrectly stating that he claimed 'his figures' (by which I think you mean the Treasury's figures) are accurate, hardly helps your credibility.

    Still, it's a good try. It took me over 45 seconds to figure out the flaw in your argument.
    Go on... Enlighten me.
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    pbr2013 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    VapidBilge said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
    Welcome to past Glories my friend,all you have is memories,crap in the lower leagues isn't it ;-)

    Pissant little Yorkshire clubs like you and the dog botherers always make me laugh. Obsessed.

    Oh, and 3 titles.
    Yes, I was thinking exclusively of Revie's side, which I think was great (despite my reservations about them).

    And a European Cup final (under Armfield, but the same side).
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    Go on... Enlighten me.

    You've assumed that the rise in the number of households is entirely due to immigration.

    Also (a minor point, but a meme seems to be developing): "The IMF, OECD and HM Treasury also thought we would be mad not to join the ERM ".

    Citation needed, in respect of the IMF and OECD. Of course it's true that Chancellors Lawson and Lamont were keen on ERM, but I'm not sure that's entirely helpful to your argument that those who were wrong then are wrong now.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    edited May 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    When I was dating in Basel 20 years ago the hot thing was a club who offered you a choice of buttons to wear: red for "I'm committed, go away", green for "mmm, what are you waiting for?" and organge for "well, you can try..." You could change during the evening according to how you were getting on. There must be electronic equivalents by now?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Yes, it will be interesting to see.

    To be honest, I'm not sure the electorate can withstand this level of pummelling: the pounding from Remain is intense, unyielding and relentless. The BBC is good at giving billing to the right headlines, and we have another 40 days of it.

    I think everyone will be glad when it's over.

    I met someone from someone from Vote Leave earlier on this week, he said he now knows how Labour felt at the last general election, when the Tories kept on with their relentless message discipline about the long term economic plan.
    I think there's quite a lot of crossover empathy at the moment - you also have Cameroons experiencing the true leftie loathing of the Mail.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Go on... Enlighten me.

    You've assumed that the rise in the number of households is entirely due to immigration.

    Also (a minor point, but a meme seems to be developing): "The IMF, OECD and HM Treasury also thought we would be mad not to join the ERM ".

    Citation needed, in respect of the IMF and OECD. Of course it's true that Chancellors Lawson and Lamont were keen on ERM, but I'm not sure that's entirely helpful to your argument.
    I have not assumed the number of households will rise due to immigration, I have assumed it will rise less with less immigration. The 31 million (4 million more than now) comes from the treasury report. I have assumed that if less people are coming in then that will result in fewer households. I had assumed that adding less people to the total resulted in less people. Perhaps that's controversial?

    I can go look up a citation but that would involve looking at very old archives. I am happy to rely on my memory and ask you to cite a counter source.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190
    Tykejohnno said:

    VapidBilge said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
    Welcome to past Glories my friend,all you have is memories,crap in the lower leagues isn't it ;-)

    Not even as if they have two European Cup wins to keep them going in the lower leagues...unlike Forest.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    I can go look up a citation but that would involve looking at very old archives. I am happy to rely on my memory and ask you to cite a counter source.

    I don't recall the IMF or OECD making any such comments. They might have done, but you are the one making the claim, so it's incumbent on you to substantiate it. Using Google I can't seem to find any evidence of this, although I did find some IMF technical papers on models of inflation in various scenarios.

    On household numbers, you seem to be combining numbers arbitrarily from different sources. I'd expect the number of households to continue increasing even with zero net migration, because of demographic effects.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    pbr2013 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    VapidBilge said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
    Welcome to past Glories my friend,all you have is memories,crap in the lower leagues isn't it ;-)

    Pissant little Yorkshire clubs like you and the dog botherers always make me laugh. Obsessed.

    Oh, and 3 titles.
    All you have are memories - lol just think that in another 20/30 years leeds fans will be still talking about 3 titles or revie era from the lower leagues.

    Remember in West Yorkshire the last team to get to a major cup final was the mighty bantams from div 2 making history.

    Great fans.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqOSJInnljs
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    MarqueeMark said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    VapidBilge said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    2 league championships
    Probably the best passing side in England until Wenger's Invincibles
    Core of Scotland's unbeaten 1974 World Cup side

    Bradford City can't get near that.
    Welcome to past Glories my friend,all you have is memories,crap in the lower leagues isn't it ;-)

    Not even as if they have two European Cup wins to keep them going in the lower leagues...unlike Forest.
    If Liverpool ever get relegated, we can console ourselves with our FIVE European Cups.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    I can go look up a citation but that would involve looking at very old archives. I am happy to rely on my memory and ask you to cite a counter source.

    I don't recall the IMF or OECD making any such comments. They might have done, but you are the one making the claim. Using Google I can't seem to find any evidence of this, although I did find some IMF technical papers on models of inflation in various scenarios.

    On household numbers, you seem to be combining numbers arbitrarily from different sources.
    On household numbers 27 million is the 2015 estimate. The treasury £4300 GDP per household worse off in 2030 is based on there being 27 million in 2030 whilst in the same report the ONS says it will be 31 million if we stay.

    To get 28 million if we leave I have simply assumed Cameron will keep his word on net immigration. I grant you that promise could be argued to be laughable now...
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    I can go look up a citation but that would involve looking at very old archives. I am happy to rely on my memory and ask you to cite a counter source.

    I don't recall the IMF or OECD making any such comments. They might have done, but you are the one making the claim. Using Google I can't seem to find any evidence of this, although I did find some IMF technical papers on models of inflation in various scenarios.

    On household numbers, you seem to be combining numbers arbitrarily from different sources.
    On household numbers 27 million is the 2015 estimate. The treasury £4300 GDP per household worse off in 2030 is based on there being 27 million in 2030 whilst in the same report the ONS says it will be 31 million if we stay.

    To get 28 million if we leave I have simply assumed Cameron will keep his word on net immigration. I grant you that promise could be argued to be laughable now...
    The Treasury model assumed the same immigration in the two scenarios. But, as I said, you can't combine numbers arbitrarily from different models. Your denominator, in other words, is highly suspect.

    Anyway, bedtime. Night all.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    NickPalmer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Excellent article again from Roger.

    I'm intrigued about the 'winking at a girl in the dark' bit. It's academic for happily-married me, of course, but as I understand it, if you go 'clubbing' the noise is so fearsome that you haven't a snowflake's chance in hell of chatting her up. Presumably the lights are flashing and strobing, so hand-signals won't work. So is there some Bluetooth app which fills the gap?

    When I was dating in Basel 20 years ago the hot thing was a club who offered you a choice of buttons to wear: red for "I'm committed, go away", green for "mmm, what are you waiting for?" and organge for "well, you can try..." You could change during the evening according to how you were getting on. There must be electronic equivalents by now?
    When I lived in Twickenham in the very early 70s there was a pub called the Bird's Nest. Every table had a number hanging over it and a phone on each table. You picked up the phone and dialed the number of the table where sat the person you wanted to talk with.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Long day at work, and only just caught up with the comments...

    The city once called Leningrad
    Has an office that's full of some mad
    Trolls who post on PB
    Which, I'm sure you'll agree,
    Is really quite tragically sad.
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    The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 403
    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    My forecast of GB post Brexit would be akin to Leeds Utd. A once great club plummeted into obscurity plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope.

    Leeds have never been a great club, though they occasionally masqueraded as one. A few years kicking lumps out of opponents forty years ago and a few more at the start of this century not winning very much, funded on a business plan that might have been cooked up in Athens, doesn't amount to greatness.
    Ah, the familiar bile of the smaller Yorkshire neighbour. Bradford City fan is it? Hudds? Don't worry, we still like it when you little guys win.

    Leeds United have been Champions of England three times in my lifetime; a feat bettered only by Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United, and equalled by Everton and Man City. Despite Leeds' appalling record of the last 12 years they still rank 10th in the all-time top division listings, and though the original quote about "plagued by economic mismanagement, and left languishing with little hope" is undoubtedly correct, we are only one Qatari owner away from rising again. Such is modern football.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    I can go look up a citation but that would involve looking at very old archives. I am happy to rely on my memory and ask you to cite a counter source.

    I don't recall the IMF or OECD making any such comments. They might have done, but you are the one making the claim. Using Google I can't seem to find any evidence of this, although I did find some IMF technical papers on models of inflation in various scenarios.

    On household numbers, you seem to be combining numbers arbitrarily from different sources.
    On household numbers 27 million is the 2015 estimate. The treasury £4300 GDP per household worse off in 2030 is based on there being 27 million in 2030 whilst in the same report the ONS says it will be 31 million if we stay.

    To get 28 million if we leave I have simply assumed Cameron will keep his word on net immigration. I grant you that promise could be argued to be laughable now...
    The Treasury model assumed the same immigration in the two scenarios. But, as I said, you can't combine numbers arbitrarily from different models. Your denominator, in other words, is highly suspect.

    Anyway, bedtime. Night all.
    No, the treasury assumed NO immigration and no procreation beyond that for population replacement for the headline number whilst the ONS said, in the same report that it would go up to 31 million.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, very interesting tweet by Dominic Cummings, because Patrick Wintour notes, it breaks most rules of political campaigning

    Is it fair to assume Dominic Cummings was behind the hysterical rants at ITV?

    Excellent thread Roger.

    I am reminded of the old saw:

    'Selling is getting rid of what you've got.
    Marketing is having what you can get rid of.'

    I'm not sure yesterday's 'Never mind your pocket, stupid, think of your sovereignty' suggests LEAVE have sorted out their marketing, let alone their selling.....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731267847037562880
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731267847037562880

    Are you sure that's not our entrance fee for Eurovision? :D
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731267847037562880

    Are you sure that's not our entrance fee for Eurovision? :D
    Are you still "MAKING YOUR MIND UP", Rob? :lol:
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Long day at work, and only just caught up with the comments...

    The city once called Leningrad
    Has an office that's full of some mad
    Trolls who post on PB
    Which, I'm sure you'll agree,
    Is really quite tragically sad.

    :smiley:
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    edited May 2016
    Interesting Grauniad interview with Khan:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/13/sadiq-khan-jeremy-corbyn-get-back-habit-winning-elections

    1) I think Khan is right, but
    2) The Grauniad's Print Headline Blair's Strategy Key to 2020 Victory will not help sell it within Labour.

    http://67.media.tumblr.com/6bbcd1ad7e026af2626905aedbf504ed/tumblr_o74wacrzN41u5f06vo1_1280.jpg
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    From Ashcroft's Brighton focus group:

    Nigel Farage put the case crisply in a speech a few days ago, extracts from which were shown to the groups. This went down well with most people (“I like a bit of Nige”), who thought he clearly summed up the argument that the political elite had connived in mass immigration because they liked having “cheaper nannies and chauffeurs”, whatever the interests of their constituents. “When he talks about immigration, he’s plausible.”

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/belfast-and-brighton-referendum-focus-groups-with-48-days-to-go
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,923
    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    I can go look up a citation but that would involve looking at very old archives. I am happy to rely on my memory and ask you to cite a counter source.

    I don't recall the IMF or OECD making any such comments. They might have done, but you are the one making the claim. Using Google I can't seem to find any evidence of this, although I did find some IMF technical papers on models of inflation in various scenarios.

    On household numbers, you seem to be combining numbers arbitrarily from different sources.
    On household numbers 27 million is the 2015 estimate. The treasury £4300 GDP per household worse off in 2030 is based on there being 27 million in 2030 whilst in the same report the ONS says it will be 31 million if we stay.

    To get 28 million if we leave I have simply assumed Cameron will keep his word on net immigration. I grant you that promise could be argued to be laughable now...
    The Treasury model assumed the same immigration in the two scenarios. But, as I said, you can't combine numbers arbitrarily from different models. Your denominator, in other words, is highly suspect.

    Anyway, bedtime. Night all.
    No, the treasury assumed NO immigration and no procreation beyond that for population replacement for the headline number whilst the ONS said, in the same report that it would go up to 31 million.
    No, Richard is correct. Page 136 of the treasury analysis states:

    The population and migration projections which underlie the modelling were used by the OBR in their Economic and fiscal outlook accompanying Budget 2016. It is assumed that population growth will slow in line with the ONS’s current principal population projections. In the principal projection, total net international migration to the UK falls from 329,000 per year in 2014 towards 185,000 per year from 2021 onwards. This is a stylised projection rather than a forecast.

    This gives a UK population of 71.4m in 2030, up from 65.6m in 2016. As Richard says, the same population increase is assumed for every scenario.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting article. Some industries have a particular view. It's interesting to see which way the wind blows in advertising. Boris does seem to cut through in ways others just don't. Getting out on a John Major style campaign is great.

    BenedictWhite - yes it's BENEDICT WHITE!!! Once one of the original giant posters of PB.com. Where've you been all these many years? It feels good to have you back. Proof, if proof were needed, that PBers may say they are leaving this place, buy invariably they return over time - are you listening Peter the Punter?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Off Topic ..... well it is quiet on here -

    An awkward 0 - 2 defeat last night in the away leg of their play-off game against Sheff'd Weds, but I wouldn't give up just yet on Brighton progressing, especially considering the 9/1 odds on offer from those nice folk at Corals against them reaching the Promised Land (other bookies go 8/1).
    The Seagulls lost out to Middlesbrough on gaining automatic promotion in the final game of the season by the tiniest margin of goal difference.
    They finished on 89 points, surely the highest tally ever achieved without finishing top two and an enormous 15 points ahead of the 6th placed Owls who they play in the return home game next Monday, which I would normally expect Brighton to win comfortably.
    Should they do so, they would surely have at least an evens chance of defeating either Derby or Hull at Wembley to the £170 million big prize at the end of the month.
    My chief concern has to be their injuries situation, since I understand that four players had to be replaced last night and they finished with only 10 men on the pitch.
    Nevertheless, at these odds, I've had a fiver's worth but DYOR.
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    Me_Me_ Posts: 66
    peter_from_putney said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting article. Some industries have a particular view. It's interesting to see which way the wind blows in advertising. Boris does seem to cut through in ways others just don't. Getting out on a John Major style campaign is great.

    BenedictWhite - yes it's BENEDICT WHITE!!! Once one of the original giant posters of PB.com. Where've you been all these many years? It feels good to have you back. Proof, if proof were needed, that PBers may say they are leaving this place, buy invariably they return over time - are you listening Peter the Punter?
    PfP, no one ever leaves. PtP was right when he said that "you can comeback anytime you like but you can`t ever leave"
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    Me_Me_ Posts: 66
    Ops, "you can check out"
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    edited May 2016
    If the comments are anything to go by, the SNP's Republic Policy wish is as popular as they expected when they left it out of the Independence pile of shite White Paper

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/humza-yousaf-most-people-in-snp-want-to-get-rid-of-monarchy-1-4127741
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Another poll showing Clinton only 2% ahead.

    Gravis Marketing/One America News 5/10 - 5/10 1,574 RV

    C51 T49
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2016
    Me_ said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting article. Some industries have a particular view. It's interesting to see which way the wind blows in advertising. Boris does seem to cut through in ways others just don't. Getting out on a John Major style campaign is great.

    BenedictWhite - yes it's BENEDICT WHITE!!! Once one of the original giant posters of PB.com. Where've you been all these many years? It feels good to have you back. Proof, if proof were needed, that PBers may say they are leaving this place, buy invariably they return over time - are you listening Peter the Punter?
    PfP, no one ever leaves. PtP was right when he said that "you can [check out] anytime you like but you can`t ever leave"
    IIRC, you too Me_ are one of the real old timers ....... am I right and do you reside in South America?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2016
    Crikey, at this rate we'll be witnessing Louise Mensch, née Bagshawe, making a guest re-appearance on PB.com any time soon!
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    RodCrosby said:

    Another poll showing Clinton only 2% ahead.

    Gravis Marketing/One America News 5/10 - 5/10 1,574 RV

    C51 T49

    Certainly makes that 4.1 (3.945 net) decimal price for Trump with Betfair look like value.
    DYOR.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting Grauniad interview with Khan:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/13/sadiq-khan-jeremy-corbyn-get-back-habit-winning-elections

    1) I think Khan is right, but
    2) The Grauniad's Print Headline Blair's Strategy Key to 2020 Victory will not help sell it within Labour.

    http://67.media.tumblr.com/6bbcd1ad7e026af2626905aedbf504ed/tumblr_o74wacrzN41u5f06vo1_1280.jpg

    Is the Tory candidate supporting Cameron or Johnson ?
This discussion has been closed.