"[Peter Marsh] was a larger than life self publicist and showman and unlike most advertisers who believed in letting their work sell the agency he believed that selling himself sold the work. "
Certainly the same cannot be said of "Roger". Having recently seen his identity slip out, somewhat carelessly it might be said, at the foot of one of his PB threads, he has since quickly re-asserted his anonymity by the use of only his first name.
If the comments are anything to go by, the SNP's Republic Policy wish is as popular as they expected when they left it out of the Independence pile of shite White Paper
"Leave look shell-shocked". LOL!!!! They are in the lead.
The bias on this site is quite ridiculous. Quite apart from anything else, a nation with clearly evenly divided opinion should be reflected in thread leaders.
Get your act together pb.com or risk even more people walking out.
"Leave look shell-shocked". LOL!!!! They are in the lead.
The bias on this site is quite ridiculous. Quite apart from anything else, a nation with clearly evenly divided opinion should be reflected in thread leaders.
Get your act together pb.com or risk even more people walking out.
It's Mike's site and as such he can direct the threads exactly as he wishes.
There can be little doubt that in terms of media coverage, the more REMAIN shout out loud and protest and the more they introduce international personages into the equation to prove they are right, the more confident I become that they are very fearful of losing this referendum. Much the same applies, although in a different sense as regards PB.com, whereby just about all the thread writers are strongly pro REMAIN.
"Leave look shell-shocked". LOL!!!! They are in the lead.
The bias on this site is quite ridiculous. Quite apart from anything else, a nation with clearly evenly divided opinion should be reflected in thread leaders.
Get your act together pb.com or risk even more people walking out.
To be fair the thread header is quite balanced on this occasion. However it strays slightly with the line "REMAIN’s most obvious assets are LEAVES unanswered questions. ‘What would happen next? Who would be ruling the country after the vote"
The answer is of course the British government not some faceless unelected Brussels bureaucrat.
The unanswered question from remain is what immediate demands will be made by the EU when Remain win. There will be a multitude of them as the EU would never pass up such an opportunity. A number of contentious issues are already being postponed until after the referendum including the vote on whether to grant "Dave's deal" Vote remain if you so desire but let's at least be aware of those demands and the consequences but as of yet unanswered and ignored by Remain.
Besides which they never vote for us at Eurovision....
"Leave look shell-shocked". LOL!!!! They are in the lead.
The bias on this site is quite ridiculous. Quite apart from anything else, a nation with clearly evenly divided opinion should be reflected in thread leaders.
Get your act together pb.com or risk even more people walking out.
I am very happy to publish insightful headers supporting OUT.
Thank you for your concern about political betting traffic. I can assure you that it is rising every day.
Where do you get the idea that OUT is in the lead? If people thought that then IN wouldn't be a 70% chance on the betting markets
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
Eurovision is not the EU but if you do fancy Australia, it has been supported heavily in the last couple of days and even the 5/1 in this morning's Racing Post has gone. It might be worth checking at around 8.30 to see if (as with racing odds) the bookies revert the price for a few minutes to that shown in their adverts.
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
suspect putin has nobbled the juries and the not camp at all no way russian song will triumph. luckily drug testing not required for eurovision (as far as I know)
Very interesting thread, thanks Roger. A couple things stand out:
‘Facts aren’t important. What matters is what the public believes’‘Facts aren’t important. What matters is what the public believes’
A friend asked me yesterday what I thought of the ONS - for whom I used to work - correcting the immigration statistics. I pointed out that they hadn't and were insisting that we should believe their numbers. But perception is everything and in that respect Leave has a big advantage when it comes to immigration.
Which leads me to the written press. Clearly the BBC and Sky News didn't put it near the immigration stats story near the top of their bulletins on Thursday. But the written press put them all over their front pages. So the question is, who would you rather have on your side - the advertising industry, or the press?
Finally, TSE says that he spoke with someone from Vote Leave who says he now knows how Labour felt being on the end of Cameron and Co. Actually, it's far worse than that. I don't remember Obama and Lagarde telling voters in the 2015 General Election to vote Tory.
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
Eurovision is not the EU but if you do fancy Australia, it has been supported heavily in the last couple of days and even the 5/1 in this morning's Racing Post has gone. It might be worth checking at around 8.30 to see if (as with racing odds) the bookies revert the price for a few minutes to that shown in their adverts.
Indeed.... Israel also a participant of course.... Presume Ken will have a few quid on that .
For those Interested in Eurovision odds all are here for the main bookies but not sure how often updated.
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
Eurovision is not the EU but if you do fancy Australia, it has been supported heavily in the last couple of days and even the 5/1 in this morning's Racing Post has gone. It might be worth checking at around 8.30 to see if (as with racing odds) the bookies revert the price for a few minutes to that shown in their adverts.
Indeed.... Israel also a participant of course.... Presume Ken will have a few quid on that .
For those Interested in Eurovision odds all are here for the main bookies but not sure how often updated.
Israel has been host, but I think that should Australia win it has agreed to host in Europe.
Voting in Eurovision is famously erratic, and all part of the fun, but I am concerned that the new system will add a new element so particularly hard to predict the winner.
I rather liked Georgia with their Oasis like rock, but it won't win.
No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.
With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.
Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th
This is quite different to the general election where choosing the best leader for the next five years was crucial. This is an argument about competing visions where Cameron/Johnson are simply presenters of those ideas. Their importance as individuals is much therefore much less
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
suspect putin has nobbled the juries and the not camp at all no way russian song will triumph. luckily drug testing not required for eurovision (as far as I know)
Drug testing.... I thought being mostly comatose was a prerequisite for suffering Eurovision if not during, then certainly at the end by which time most had given up the will to live anyway....(as the late Mr Wogan may have quipped.)
They really are going to have to go some though to beat the high pitched singing bloke dressed as a woman sporting a full set. That certainly raised the Eurovision bar to a whole new level.
No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.
With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.
Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th
This is quite different to the general election where choosing the best leader for the next five years was crucial. This is an argument about competing visions where Cameron/Johnson are simply presenters of those ideas. Their importance as individuals is much therefore much less
Apart from the fact no10 is up for grabs and this is the job interview.
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
Eurovision is not the EU but if you do fancy Australia, it has been supported heavily in the last couple of days and even the 5/1 in this morning's Racing Post has gone. It might be worth checking at around 8.30 to see if (as with racing odds) the bookies revert the price for a few minutes to that shown in their adverts.
Indeed.... Israel also a participant of course.... Presume Ken will have a few quid on that .
For those Interested in Eurovision odds all are here for the main bookies but not sure how often updated.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Qualifying for Spain today. Hamilton needs to start turning things around. Be interesting to see how Verstappen does (if he wins, a 250/1 winner would be rather super).
Eurovision Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm. Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One . Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
Eurovision is not the EU but if you do fancy Australia, it has been supported heavily in the last couple of days and even the 5/1 in this morning's Racing Post has gone. It might be worth checking at around 8.30 to see if (as with racing odds) the bookies revert the price for a few minutes to that shown in their adverts.
Indeed.... Israel also a participant of course.... Presume Ken will have a few quid on that .
For those Interested in Eurovision odds all are here for the main bookies but not sure how often updated.
I am sticking to my previous view Jamala from the Ukraine. Who knows though with such a whacky competition as this?
The lighting for the song is pretty amazing, but I was disappointed by the song itself. I cannot see it winning.
Well perhaps it is as previously mentioned a whacky completion so anything can happen. It's the Singing version of the Grand National really.
There is a political angle here of course and Eurovision loves to send out messages in their collective voting. I think that could be exacerbated by the odds now starting to favour the Russian entry. Just think back to the reaction of the Gulf war. I seem to recollect the maximum points we got at one competition could be counted on one hand. Be interesting to see if that same situation manifests itself here again either Russians or perhaps it's just a British phenomenon only because they don't like us very much.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
Do people actually watch Eurovision before the voting starts?
Weird. My sense of post ironic detachment apparently needs more work..
Lots of people think it's good fun, and a fair number actually like many of the performances. For some reason British coverage has got locked into post-ironic mode, which spoils it a bit for people who enjoy it and has the knock-on effect that we don't actually put forward competitive entries. We're like someone who goes on internet dates with the starting assumption that everyone they meet is going to be ridiculous.
Do people actually watch Eurovision before the voting starts?
Weird. My sense of post ironic detachment apparently needs more work..
Sad normal folk, the majority of the gay community and TSE watch the whole event (the latter for fashion tips).
Anorak PBers only watch the voting for faint signs of AV infiltration and LondonBob will be monitoring the show and PB for bias as the Soviet entry is the favourite to win following a wave of Peak Putin sentiment after his BREXIT endorsement.
Well apparently a vote taken at Trumpton Fire station showed that Pugh, Pugh Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble and Grub have voted overwhelmingly in favour of leave. Who knew?
Caution advised though, could be a voodoo poll as they may not be an affiliated branch of the FBU?
I've written a thread on that for Sunday, precis, the more people see of Boris in this referendum campaign, the more his ratings fall.
The most charitable conclusion is that Mr Johnson didn't bother to check his facts before answering. That ought to ring warning bells with voters about Mr Johnson's assertions concerning the rosy post-Brexit future and indeed of the attention to detail of a man who wants to be Conservative party leader and prime minister.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
Do people actually watch Eurovision before the voting starts?
Weird. My sense of post ironic detachment apparently needs more work..
Lots of people think it's good fun, and a fair number actually like many of the performances. For some reason British coverage has got locked into post-ironic mode, which spoils it a bit for people who enjoy it and has the knock-on effect that we don't actually put forward competitive entries. We're like someone who goes on internet dates with the starting assumption that everyone they meet is going to be ridiculous.
How do you know people do that? Frequent subject of tea-room gossip, I expect...
Do people actually watch Eurovision before the voting starts?
Weird. My sense of post ironic detachment apparently needs more work..
Sad normal folk, the majority of the gay community and TSE watch the whole event (the latter for fashion tips).
Anorak PBers only watch the voting for faint signs of AV infiltration and LondonBob will be monitoring the show and PB for bias as the Soviet entry is the favourite to win following a wave of Peak Putin sentiment after his BREXIT endorsement.
Don't forget Mossad. They have feelings too you know........
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
The ONS figures calculate the number of temporary visitors becoming permenant, so fear not.
Do people actually watch Eurovision before the voting starts?
Weird. My sense of post ironic detachment apparently needs more work..
Lots of people think it's good fun, and a fair number actually like many of the performances. For some reason British coverage has got locked into post-ironic mode, which spoils it a bit for people who enjoy it and has the knock-on effect that we don't actually put forward competitive entries. We're like someone who goes on internet dates with the starting assumption that everyone they meet is going to be ridiculous.
And is that not a reasonable, if not very productive, assumption?
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
The ONS figures calculate the number of temporary visitors becoming permenant, so fear not.
Voters have been told constantly by the government that EU immigration numbers are disastrously high and that immigrants are squeezing public services, grabbing houses, lowering salaries, scrounging benefits and generally doing a lot of harm. You can't blame voters for being angry and worried about this. Never mind that the reality may be very different, the PM, the Home Secretary et al have helped to mould the perceptions for short-term political gain. Now it is coming back to bite them on the rear-end big time. They have no-one to blame but themselves.
In the Eurovision Songfest there is no doubt that Graham Norton will be the perfect commentator tonight, as he follows in the footsteps of Terry Wogan in taking the piss out of the contestants and the block voting liable to occur.
Well apparently a vote taken at Trumpton Fire station showed that Pugh, Pugh Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble and Grub have voted overwhelmingly in favour of leave. Who knew?
Caution advised though, could be a voodoo poll as they may not be an affiliated branch of the FBU?
There are persistent rumours that the Treasury has an expert report from many highly qualified experts who predict fires will burn at least 5 degrees hotter in the event of Brexit. Modelling on the consequences for loss of life and, of course, global warming, is at an advanced stage.
No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.
With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.
Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th
This is quite different to the general election where choosing the best leader for the next five years was crucial. This is an argument about competing visions where Cameron/Johnson are simply presenters of those ideas. Their importance as individuals is much therefore much less
Apart from the fact no10 is up for grabs and this is the job interview.
You know that I know that Dave and Boris know that but apart from that it's no part of the camaign!
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
Back of a fag packet (if that is still allowed) suggests that if we had an extra 1.6m short term visitors over a period of 5 years staying for an average of 6 months indicates an average additional number from the EU of 160k at any particular point in time. Roughly the population of Dundee.
Very interesting thread, thanks Roger. A couple things stand out:
‘Facts aren’t important. What matters is what the public believes’‘Facts aren’t important. What matters is what the public believes’
A friend asked me yesterday what I thought of the ONS - for whom I used to work - correcting the immigration statistics. I pointed out that they hadn't and were insisting that we should believe their numbers. But perception is everything and in that respect Leave has a big advantage when it comes to immigration.
Which leads me to the written press. Clearly the BBC and Sky News didn't put it near the immigration stats story near the top of their bulletins on Thursday. But the written press put them all over their front pages. So the question is, who would you rather have on your side - the advertising industry, or the press?
Finally, TSE says that he spoke with someone from Vote Leave who says he now knows how Labour felt being on the end of Cameron and Co. Actually, it's far worse than that. I don't remember Obama and Lagarde telling voters in the 2015 General Election to vote Tory.
What's also very clear from vox pops is that the public has very little confidence in the veracity of some official figures. Police stats in particular suffer from sniff-test failures - in the past, they bounced about as all manner of trivial incidents were added or removed from certain categories. The police like politicians are suspected of bending figures to cover their uselessness. Immigration figures suffer with WTF features - such as how the population is counted arriving/leaving - we now know it isn't much of a check at al. And the unwillingness to respond promptly to FOIs leads to stories of obstruction/what else are they hiding...
There's nothing more difficult to handle PR wise than tricky FOIs - you're already on the backfoot - someone with a genuine suspicion is digging, and won't be giving up. You can't talk your way out of these corners. The best you can hope for is to get lost in the wash. Round robin FOIs are the easiest to avoid - just ignore them long enough for the journalist to run the story without your data.
The ONS can't win this one - the criticism was damaging, and if they waited until next month - the impact could've been worse. But what it has done is hand some great ammunition to Leave. Those who didn't believe the official line feel vindicated, the public feel they've been lied to yet again over immigration - and trust in other official stats is undermined "they lied about this, what else are they doing?"
Nitpicking over what sort of immigration various categories represent doesn't matter here - if you're widely believed to be a liar, trying to explain your way out of it/the figures are really ticky-boo isn't convincing anyone. What I do find interesting here is that the ONS aren't being blamed here - it's seen as a Number 10 led cover-up.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
Not good for Remain.
Yep, immigration is the killer for Remain; thanks in no small part to the government. From the PM down it has used anti-immigration rhetoric for electoral purposes, while relying on immigration continuing apace to hit economic targets. If it wasn't so serious, the flagrant hypocrisy would be hilarious.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
Back of a fag packet (if that is still allowed) suggests that if we had an extra 1.6m short term visitors over a period of 5 years staying for an average of 6 months indicates an average additional number from the EU of 160k at any particular point in time. Roughly the population of Dundee.
Oh well if they all stay in Dundee that's all right - I've no call to go there. Or have I missed something?
On who makes the better frontsman for their Campaign - Cameron or Johnson - I always thought Cameron's great success as a politician is that he looks like your boss, which Miliband never did. He can stand up in the company meeting with his Powerpoints and go on about strategic directions and you think, that's boring but I'm not going to argue.
An entertaining and enlightening piece, Roger. I've always thought that advertising was either a branch of the entertainment industry or mere repetition. Did that most irritating of adverts, the 'Shake and Vac:' song increase sales dramatically?
I think Remain's main problem will be turnout. The status quo is hardly a turn-on to go out on a wet day (if it is). I will vote Leave even if we have an earthquake and I have to clamber over the rubble to get into the polling station. I've waited over forty years to take revenge on the lying politicans, and it's definitely cold enough.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
Back of a fag packet (if that is still allowed) suggests that if we had an extra 1.6m short term visitors over a period of 5 years staying for an average of 6 months indicates an average additional number from the EU of 160k at any particular point in time. Roughly the population of Dundee.
Mostly young, mostly single, very mobile - not clogging hospitals, schools and council house waiting lists. Paying taxes. A disaster.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
The Allison Pearson article was excellent - the % of e.g. Romanians remaining in the UK despite saying they were here temporarily is c45% IIRC.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
Not good for Remain.
Yep, immigration is the killer for Remain; thanks in no small part to the government. From the PM down it has used anti-immigration rhetoric for electoral purposes, while relying on immigration continuing apace to hit economic targets. If it wasn't so serious, the flagrant hypocrisy would be hilarious.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. It's far too late for the government to argue the case for free migration.
Well apparently a vote taken at Trumpton Fire station showed that Pugh, Pugh Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble and Grub have voted overwhelmingly in favour of leave. Who knew?
Caution advised though, could be a voodoo poll as they may not be an affiliated branch of the FBU?
There are persistent rumours that the Treasury has an expert report from many highly qualified experts who predict fires will burn at least 5 degrees hotter in the event of Brexit. Modelling on the consequences for loss of life and, of course, global warming, is at an advanced stage.
Latest reports show that Remain claim that as a result of fires burning even hotter then crops could be badly affected by the additional heat and smoke leading to wide ranging shortages of bread amongst other products. Mr Windy Miller of Camberwick Green said;
"Don't the leavers realise how this will affect this community.... Have they no heart?, I will lose my EU subsidy for producing food inefficiently under the CAP as such I will have to sell my windmill , go on the social and live in a B&B" he then went onto add "I can't even go fishing because the EU restrict what I could catch anyway off my own coast and they give all the good fishing grounds to that Trumpton lot or that bloke from Nazareth that turns loaves into fishes or wine lakes ...or summit?"
If you give me your attention, I'll tell you who I am. I'm the REMAIN leader, called David Cameran. Each statistical error, or personality defect In my opposite LEAVERS I endeavour to correct. For all the world leaders, they hold my point of view And I cannot understand why they don't mean much to you. I'm on the telly daily, my points I can simply prove And yet for the opinion polls - they just won't move And I can't think why!
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Less than 2% over half a decade doesn't sound that severe to me.
What I do find interesting here is that the ONS aren't being blamed here - it's seen as a Number 10 led cover-up.
When I worked at the ONS I thought it was an organisation with a very good reputation. On a number of issues - such as the classification of publically owned banks as being in the public sector - we were seen as the arbiter.
The subject of immigration is a difficult one for the ONS, however. There has always been a suspicion that the IPS is not fit for purpose, but the estimates for the 2011 population were pretty close to what the Census said. Whether things have started to go awry since 2011 is tough to say. If there is anything majorly wrong with the estimates, we won't find out until 2022.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
Not good for Remain.
Yep, immigration is the killer for Remain; thanks in no small part to the government. From the PM down it has used anti-immigration rhetoric for electoral purposes, while relying on immigration continuing apace to hit economic targets. If it wasn't so serious, the flagrant hypocrisy would be hilarious.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. It's far too late for the government to argue the case for free migration.
Which is a shame. It would be good to have someone honestly make the case for the benefits of free migration. Rather than either being against free migration or lazily shouting down opponents as racists.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
The Allison Pearson article was excellent - the % of e.g. Romanians remaining in the UK despite saying they were here temporarily is c45% IIRC.
Actually, a lot of the Pearson article was nonsense. But you can't blame people for believing it given what they've been told by everyone in government from the PM down about the harm EU immigration is doing.
"Leave look shell-shocked". LOL!!!! They are in the lead.
The bias on this site is quite ridiculous. Quite apart from anything else, a nation with clearly evenly divided opinion should be reflected in thread leaders.
Get your act together pb.com or risk even more people walking out.
CHQ paid lackeys make plenty of noise as they spread their lies and propaganda, same old suspects day in and day out.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
Not good for Remain.
Yep, immigration is the killer for Remain; thanks in no small part to the government. From the PM down it has used anti-immigration rhetoric for electoral purposes, while relying on immigration continuing apace to hit economic targets. If it wasn't so serious, the flagrant hypocrisy would be hilarious.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. It's far too late for the government to argue the case for free migration.
Completely agree. Dave, George, Theresa etc are being hoisted on their own petards.
No one seems to know where he’s been getting advice but so much dependence on one personality seems a very risky strategy.
With the right front man it isn't a risk, Cameron won the Tories a majority in 2015 thanks to Cameron being the front man, in part because he led Ed Miliband on most leadership metrics.
Is Boris a pound shop David Cameron? We'll find out on June 24th
This is quite different to the general election where choosing the best leader for the next five years was crucial. This is an argument about competing visions where Cameron/Johnson are simply presenters of those ideas. Their importance as individuals is much therefore much less
Not sure about that. I think just like in General Elections this will come down in no small part to "who do you trust more". Most voters neither know nor care about the minutiae of the Treaty of Nice etc and will go based on a generalised gut instinct tempered by who they trust.
The ONS is of course EU-funded and as such its entire output, when inconvenient to Leave, is hopelessly compromised. It appears, when it puts out statistics that undermine the Leave cause, that George Osborne has called in favours to ensure that truth is biased in favour of Remain.
On who makes the better frontsman for their Campaign - Cameron or Johnson - I always thought Cameron's great success as a politician is that he looks like your boss, which Miliband never did. He can stand up in the company meeting with his Powerpoints and go on about strategic directions and you think, that's boring but I'm not going to argue.
That's a nice observation. To take that forward, I feel Cameron's lost much of his trust factor because we've discovered he isn't the firm-but-fair family man boss we thought he was. He's been heard shouting at his staff, being rude and over-egging the peril the company is in to frighten us into signing new T&Cs.
We don't respect or trust him to look after us anymore.
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
Not good for Remain.
Yep, immigration is the killer for Remain; thanks in no small part to the government. From the PM down it has used anti-immigration rhetoric for electoral purposes, while relying on immigration continuing apace to hit economic targets. If it wasn't so serious, the flagrant hypocrisy would be hilarious.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. It's far too late for the government to argue the case for free migration.
Completely agree. Dave, George, Theresa etc are being hoisted on their own petards.
But, no political party that argued honestly in favour of free migration would be elected. It would be like arguing in favour of privatising the NHS.
Mr. Meeks, you don't think it's legitimate to point out that an organisation part-funded by the EU might not be the epitome of objectivity when assessing whether we should be in the EU?
The ONS is of course EU-funded and as such its entire output, when inconvenient to Leave, is hopelessly compromised. It appears, when it puts out statistics that undermine the Leave cause, that George Osborne has called in favours to ensure that truth is biased in favour of Remain.
He is a cheating , lying Tory , what else would we expect.
Mr. Observer, as a Labour chap (albeit on a Corbyn-induced sabbatical) do you think any people of that political persuasion might vote Leave to try and kick Cameron?
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
When you are telling fibs about immigration numbers that may also suggest problems.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
The jump from the government figure regularly quoted and the official figure finally issued, some three times higher did make brutal front page headlines for Remain and on a subject that is many peoples chief concern. The underlying damage of course cannot be measured as well but I suspect that questions will arise along the lines off if they were economical with the actual on this then what else are they being far from honest on?
Not good for Remain.
Yep, immigration is the killer for Remain; thanks in no small part to the government. From the PM down it has used anti-immigration rhetoric for electoral purposes, while relying on immigration continuing apace to hit economic targets. If it wasn't so serious, the flagrant hypocrisy would be hilarious.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. It's far too late for the government to argue the case for free migration.
Completely agree. Dave, George, Theresa etc are being hoisted on their own petards.
But, no political party that argued honestly in favour of free migration would be elected.
But they were being dishonest. And all for short term electoral advantage. Telling fibs about EU migrants on benefits, making fact-free claims about them clogging up public services and driving up housing costs. While all the time relying on large-scale immigration as a means to hit economic targets. Now they want people to vote to stay in the EU. It's laughable.
Mr. Observer, as a Labour chap (albeit on a Corbyn-induced sabbatical) do you think any people of that political persuasion might vote Leave to try and kick Cameron?
Unlikely. The alternative is even worse. But a lot won't vote at all, which is a de facto Leave.
Mr. Meeks, you don't think it's legitimate to point out that an organisation part-funded by the EU might not be the epitome of objectivity when assessing whether we should be in the EU?
I think that any suggestion that the ONS is not one of the finest statistics-gathering organisations in the world is absurd. If they can manage to issue reliable impartial statistics in the context of normal politics day in day out despite being government-funded, I struggle to see why they should automatically become a zombie army hypnotised by Jean-Claude Juncker whenever a statistic might touch on the EU. But Leaver mania is uncontrollable, I suppose.
What I do find interesting here is that the ONS aren't being blamed here - it's seen as a Number 10 led cover-up.
When I worked at the ONS I thought it was an organisation with a very good reputation. On a number of issues - such as the classification of publically owned banks as being in the public sector - we were seen as the arbiter.
The subject of immigration is a difficult one for the ONS, however. There has always been a suspicion that the IPS is not fit for purpose, but the estimates for the 2011 population were pretty close to what the Census said. Whether things have started to go awry since 2011 is tough to say. If there is anything majorly wrong with the estimates, we won't find out until 2022.
I only had marginal contact with the ONS in my previous Whitehall life, and never saw them as figure benders - it's not in their DNA as stats experts, and they've no vested interest in fibbing. They were certainly under the thumb of HMG about what to publish. They've some great people on Twitter answering ad hoc questions nowadays.
Mr. Meeks, you don't think it's legitimate to point out that an organisation part-funded by the EU might not be the epitome of objectivity when assessing whether we should be in the EU?
I actually think in the case of ONS, they are pretty independent. I wasn't working on it directly, but the Home Office leant on the ONS to try to tone down a piece on the population increase shown by the 2011 Census. The Times managed to put in a very specific FOI that led to ONS releasing correspondence with Home Office officials that did Theresa May's department no favours.
Mr. Meeks, you don't think it's legitimate to point out that an organisation part-funded by the EU might not be the epitome of objectivity when assessing whether we should be in the EU?
I think that any suggestion that the ONS is not one of the finest statistics-gathering organisations in the world is absurd. If they can manage to issue reliable impartial statistics in the context of normal politics day in day out despite being government-funded, I struggle to see why they should automatically become a zombie army hypnotised by Jean-Claude Juncker whenever a statistic might touch on the EU. But Leaver mania is uncontrollable, I suppose.
Basically, any information provided by any organisation that receives funding from anyone is hopelessly compromised, it seems. It's a frightening prospect. Thankfully, the entirely non-funded and completely disinterested Leave campaign is there to give us information and analysis we can trust :-)
When you are desperately arguing that permanent immigration from the EU over 5 years was "only" 900,000 you have a real problem. The fact that at any one time the number of people here on a more temporary basis is even higher does not help.
Not to worry, those temporary immigrants are only over here to shop at Primark.....then get a temporary job.... then get a temporary dwelling....then....Oh wait!
Back of a fag packet (if that is still allowed) suggests that if we had an extra 1.6m short term visitors over a period of 5 years staying for an average of 6 months indicates an average additional number from the EU of 160k at any particular point in time. Roughly the population of Dundee.
Mostly young, mostly single, very mobile - not clogging hospitals, schools and council house waiting lists. Paying taxes. A disaster.
Where are they living? In tents?
I think you'll find they're living in private rented accommodation, thus pushing the price up.
Mr. Meeks, you don't think it's legitimate to point out that an organisation part-funded by the EU might not be the epitome of objectivity when assessing whether we should be in the EU?
I actually think in the case of ONS, they are pretty independent. I wasn't working on it directly, but the Home Office leant on the ONS to try to tone down a piece on the population increase shown by the 2011 Census. The Times managed to put in a very specific FOI that led to ONS releasing correspondence with Home Office officials that did Theresa May's department no favours.
I do love a strategic FOI to knobble your opponent.
This is starting to get really serious for the dodgy Posh Boys... Wouldn't it be hilarious if they had their majority taken off them.
As I mentioned previously could or would that throw any referendum decision into doubt as the government of the day had no mandate to offer said referendum?
Can you just imagine the fallout for Remain if they won on the back of this supported by the PM. It would be nuclear if Leave carried the day. The constitutional implications are enormous. Perhaps argue to govern as a minority government but even so?
Cameron is like a poker player who has decided to go 'all in.'
He's gambling his reputation that he'll make the difference. A risk because his formerly good reputation as a 'straight talking guy' has taken a knock. Immigration below 100,000 - no ifs and no buts. Ooops! A decent renegotiation, or I might recommend Leave. Ooops! World War Three. Ooops!
Whatever happens, it will be his final fling.
His brand is damaged now, but he's gambling that enough 'remains' to drag Remain over the winning line.
Comments
Certainly the same cannot be said of "Roger". Having recently seen his identity slip out, somewhat carelessly it might be said, at the foot of one of his PB threads, he has since quickly re-asserted his anonymity by the use of only his first name.
The bias on this site is quite ridiculous. Quite apart from anything else, a nation with clearly evenly divided opinion should be reflected in thread leaders.
Get your act together pb.com or risk even more people walking out.
There can be little doubt that in terms of media coverage, the more REMAIN shout out loud and protest and the more they introduce international personages into the equation to prove they are right, the more confident I become that they are very fearful of losing this referendum.
Much the same applies, although in a different sense as regards PB.com, whereby just about all the thread writers are strongly pro REMAIN.
The answer is of course the British government not some faceless unelected Brussels bureaucrat.
The unanswered question from remain is what immediate demands will be made by the EU when Remain win. There will be a multitude of them as the EU would never pass up such an opportunity. A number of contentious issues are already being postponed until after the referendum including the vote on whether to grant "Dave's deal"
Vote remain if you so desire but let's at least be aware of those demands and the consequences but as of yet unanswered and ignored by Remain.
Besides which they never vote for us at Eurovision....
Thank you for your concern about political betting traffic. I can assure you that it is rising every day.
Where do you get the idea that OUT is in the lead? If people thought that then IN wouldn't be a 70% chance on the betting markets
Russia is the favourite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which takes place later in Stockholm.
Russia's Sergey Lazarev, a huge pop star in the country, is widely tipped to win with his techno ballad, You Are The Only One
.
Australia, France, Sweden and Ukraine are also hotly tipped for success in the competition.
BBC news
Australia.? ........ The EU obviously extending its bureaucratic tentacles even further or more likely, the organisers fancy an "all expenses" trip down under next year
‘Facts aren’t important. What matters is what the public believes’‘Facts aren’t important. What matters is what the public believes’
A friend asked me yesterday what I thought of the ONS - for whom I used to work - correcting the immigration statistics. I pointed out that they hadn't and were insisting that we should believe their numbers. But perception is everything and in that respect Leave has a big advantage when it comes to immigration.
Which leads me to the written press. Clearly the BBC and Sky News didn't put it near the immigration stats story near the top of their bulletins on Thursday. But the written press put them all over their front pages. So the question is, who would you rather have on your side - the advertising industry, or the press?
Finally, TSE says that he spoke with someone from Vote Leave who says he now knows how Labour felt being on the end of Cameron and Co. Actually, it's far worse than that. I don't remember Obama and Lagarde telling voters in the 2015 General Election to vote Tory.
Cheers Roger, - another enjoyable ‘commercial break’ between EU threads.
For those Interested in Eurovision odds all are here for the main bookies but not sure how often updated.
http://eurovisionworld.com/?odds=eurovision
I am sticking to my previous view Jamala from the Ukraine. Who knows though with such a whacky competition as this?
Voting in Eurovision is famously erratic, and all part of the fun, but I am concerned that the new system will add a new element so particularly hard to predict the winner.
I rather liked Georgia with their Oasis like rock, but it won't win.
They really are going to have to go some though to beat the high pitched singing bloke dressed as a woman sporting a full set. That certainly raised the Eurovision bar to a whole new level.
http://infacts.org/telegraph-grossly-distorts-migrant-figures/
Bet365 have a top 10 market, and I think Georgia at 8/1 is not bad value. UK for top 10 at 5/1 with WH is tempting too. It is not as lame as usual.
Weird. My sense of post ironic detachment apparently needs more work..
Nice piece, Mr. Roger
Qualifying for Spain today. Hamilton needs to start turning things around. Be interesting to see how Verstappen does (if he wins, a 250/1 winner would be rather super).
There is a political angle here of course and Eurovision loves to send out messages in their collective voting. I think that could be exacerbated by the odds now starting to favour the Russian entry. Just think back to the reaction of the Gulf war. I seem to recollect the maximum points we got at one competition could be counted on one hand. Be interesting to see if that same situation manifests itself here again either Russians or perhaps it's just a British phenomenon only because they don't like us very much.
But I do agree that government anti EU immigration rhetoric over recent years has helped to create a climate in which such lies are uncontested. Dave, George, Theresa & Co are reaping what they sowed. It's why Leave is likely to win and why Dave will be so widely scorned in future years.
Anorak PBers only watch the voting for faint signs of AV infiltration and LondonBob will be monitoring the show and PB for bias as the Soviet entry is the favourite to win following a wave of Peak Putin sentiment after his BREXIT endorsement.
Caution advised though, could be a voodoo poll as they may not be an affiliated branch of the FBU?
Not good for Remain.
There's nothing more difficult to handle PR wise than tricky FOIs - you're already on the backfoot - someone with a genuine suspicion is digging, and won't be giving up. You can't talk your way out of these corners. The best you can hope for is to get lost in the wash. Round robin FOIs are the easiest to avoid - just ignore them long enough for the journalist to run the story without your data.
The ONS can't win this one - the criticism was damaging, and if they waited until next month - the impact could've been worse. But what it has done is hand some great ammunition to Leave. Those who didn't believe the official line feel vindicated, the public feel they've been lied to yet again over immigration - and trust in other official stats is undermined "they lied about this, what else are they doing?"
Nitpicking over what sort of immigration various categories represent doesn't matter here - if you're widely believed to be a liar, trying to explain your way out of it/the figures are really ticky-boo isn't convincing anyone. What I do find interesting here is that the ONS aren't being blamed here - it's seen as a Number 10 led cover-up.
But it's a fun show.
Inspired by yesterday's thread, my brain started writing Eurovision limericks in the shower.
I'll spare you!
I think Remain's main problem will be turnout. The status quo is hardly a turn-on to go out on a wet day (if it is). I will vote Leave even if we have an earthquake and I have to clamber over the rubble to get into the polling station. I've waited over forty years to take revenge on the lying politicans, and it's definitely cold enough.
Hillary on the defensive, big investment by her campaign in the Rust Belt states.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ik3JTaj21eo&feature=youtu.be
"Don't the leavers realise how this will affect this community.... Have they no heart?, I will lose my EU subsidy for producing food inefficiently under the CAP as such I will have to sell my windmill , go on the social and live in a B&B" he then went onto add "I can't even go fishing because the EU restrict what I could catch anyway off my own coast and they give all the good fishing grounds to that Trumpton lot or that bloke from Nazareth that turns loaves into fishes or wine lakes ...or summit?"
I'm the REMAIN leader, called David Cameran.
Each statistical error, or personality defect
In my opposite LEAVERS I endeavour to correct.
For all the world leaders, they hold my point of view
And I cannot understand why they don't mean much to you.
I'm on the telly daily, my points I can simply prove
And yet for the opinion polls - they just won't move
And I can't think why!
(King Cameron's song - Princess Ida)
The subject of immigration is a difficult one for the ONS, however. There has always been a suspicion that the IPS is not fit for purpose, but the estimates for the 2011 population were pretty close to what the Census said. Whether things have started to go awry since 2011 is tough to say. If there is anything majorly wrong with the estimates, we won't find out until 2022.
https://twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/731147233626853376
http://www.markpack.org.uk/139980/how-tory-hq-advice-to-marginal-seat-agents-contradicted-official-electoral-commission-advice/
We don't respect or trust him to look after us anymore.
"Facts aren't important. What matters is what the public believes."
Dave is reaping what he sowed.
"But Leaver mania is uncontrollable, I suppose." - Not sure that adds much to the debate.
Mr. Observer, cheers for that answer (although not voting is just neutral, I'd say).
Mr. F, like global warming
I think you'll find they're living in private rented accommodation, thus pushing the price up.
Additionally, they are pushing wages down.
The fact remains (ahem) however, that migration statistics appear to have greatly underestimated the numbers.
Can you just imagine the fallout for Remain if they won on the back of this supported by the PM. It would be nuclear if Leave carried the day. The constitutional implications are enormous. Perhaps argue to govern as a minority government but even so?
He's gambling his reputation that he'll make the difference. A risk because his formerly good reputation as a 'straight talking guy' has taken a knock. Immigration below 100,000 - no ifs and no buts. Ooops! A decent renegotiation, or I might recommend Leave. Ooops! World War Three. Ooops!
Whatever happens, it will be his final fling.
His brand is damaged now, but he's gambling that enough 'remains' to drag Remain over the winning line.