Mr. L, if we assume you're right, who does that mean would be best as next Conservative leader?
I don't have a name but it really should not be pretty much any of the current front runners. I thought Sajid Javid looked a real possibility but he has disappointed so far in office. Characters are rare in modern politics but if there is one central theme from yesterday's results it is that character and personality are of increasing importance and political dogmatism less so. Yet another way in which Corbyn looks ridiculously out of step.
I REALLY do not understand why Javid has ever been talked up. He's shocking on the telly. Bumbling, looks like he's from outer space, and what's he actually achieved - bar being mates with Osborne?
Being the son of bus driver isn't something I look for in a potential leader.
Being son of a bus driver did not do Sadiq Khan any harm but Philip Hammond is the value bet for next Tory leader for me
“Good morning, ma’am,” a member of the uniformed Secret Service once greeted Hillary Clinton. “F— off,” she replied. That exchange is one among many that active and retired Secret Service agents shared with Ronald Kessler, author of “First Family Detail,” a compelling look at the intrepid personnel who shield America’s presidents and their families — and those whom they guard.
Kessler writes flatteringly and critically about people in both parties. Regarding the Clintons, Kessler presents Chelsea as a model protectee who respected and appreciated her agents. He describes Bill as a difficult chief executive but an easygoing ex-president. And Kessler exposes Hillary as an epically abusive Arctic monster.
“When in public, Hillary smiles and acts graciously,” Kessler explains. “As soon as the cameras are gone, her angry personality, nastiness, and imperiousness become evident.” He adds: “Hillary Clinton can make Richard Nixon look like Mahatma Gandhi.”
David Watson, the fundraising co-ordinator for the Walthamstow Labour Party, has been suspended pending an investigation, a spokesperson confirmed.
He shared articles on Facebook alleging that Daesh has used weapons made in Israel, comparing Mossad with the Nazis and accusing Israel of genocide against the Palestinians.
“Good morning, ma’am,” a member of the uniformed Secret Service once greeted Hillary Clinton. “F— off,” she replied. That exchange is one among many that active and retired Secret Service agents shared with Ronald Kessler, author of “First Family Detail,” a compelling look at the intrepid personnel who shield America’s presidents and their families — and those whom they guard.
Kessler writes flatteringly and critically about people in both parties. Regarding the Clintons, Kessler presents Chelsea as a model protectee who respected and appreciated her agents. He describes Bill as a difficult chief executive but an easygoing ex-president. And Kessler exposes Hillary as an epically abusive Arctic monster.
“When in public, Hillary smiles and acts graciously,” Kessler explains. “As soon as the cameras are gone, her angry personality, nastiness, and imperiousness become evident.” He adds: “Hillary Clinton can make Richard Nixon look like Mahatma Gandhi.”
As I have long said Hillary is the Democratic Nixon, nasty, ruthless and vindictive despite being highly intelligent. Both of course lost their first presidential election to a more charismatic candidate but won/will win 8 years later when the opposing party picked a beatable opponent, Humphrey and Trump
Hi could you explain this? Count after count in Holyrood in the fptp results we saw Labour down 10% and Tories up 10% like wtf why are labour switching to the tories it would seem? It can't be because they are THE "unionist party" because this was happening in seats where the tories had no hope of stopping the SNP, so why do you think this hapened? are the fptp seats and lists seats linked so more votes on fptp but without seats = more top up on lists?
The Scottish AMS system certainly compensates parties that lose out on the constituency vote by rewarding them on the list vote. The actual constituency votes aren't linked to the list, only the winning of constituency seats, e.g. the size of Patrick Harvie's constituency vote made no difference to his list place. The SNP won all the Glasgow constituencies and had substantially the highest vote on the Glasgow list (111k I think) but would have had to hit around 160k to receive a list msp. It's a difficult system to game, and the 2016 outcome is actually pretty proportional; the 2011 result (foreseen by nobody) looks more freakish as time goes on.
I suspect for a lot of people it was precisely because the SCons are THE "unionist party", and that's probably the fault line in Scottish politics for the near future.
I am glad Khan won in London. And I honestly never thought I would find myself saying that about a Labour politician. Goldsmith's campaign shown an horrendous lack of sense and decorum. His willingness to drag himself through the gutter to win shows a vast lack of both experience and of basic common sense as well as a questionable moral stand.
I may not like Khan's political views but if I had had to choose between the two even I would have been choosing him over Goldsmith.
I'm beginning to wonder if Zac will stand down early. He's being publicly cast adrift by unhappy Tories - it was reported that few were there to support him at the result and he looked desperate to get off stage.
I'd imagine he's pretty hurt and bruised right now.
And completely unfairly. He did no worse than the party in London last year. The questions about Khan were perfectly reasonable despite idiots like Yvette Cooper who still believe blindly that being an ethnicminoriy gives you an automatic scrutiny shield. He was not a great candidate and neither was Khan. The result given the disturbed state of British politics today was perfectly respectable.
He also had his campaign disrupted and over shadowed by the tory splits in the referendum campaign.
I was trying to be not controversial so will say no more
"The Conservative grassroots are pretty thin in the capital – party members are vastly outnumbered by their Labour Party counterparts. Even in the digital age this matters – the number of doors knocked on and leaflets through letterboxes matters. It is not fair to hold Mr Goldsmith responsible for the relative weakness of his party in London. Blame for the state of the voluntary Conservative party belongs much higher up the party hierarchy. "
"south of the border the Conservatives NEV significantly underperformed recent Westminster polling, perhaps indicating the Corbyn effect. "
I would suggest that people see UKIP as a safe protest vote that's not Labour between general elections.
If you look at the NEV 2011 - 2015, UKIP seem to exist as a repository of that vote.
In the long term, if people get used to voting UKIP, that's another problem to deal with.
The implications for EU polling are clear . The online pollsters are over stating Conservative support and UKIP support even more so . This goes quite a long way to explaining their more favourable results for Leave compared to phone polls .
Online polls were pretty much spot-on, this time round, when it came to predicting Wales, Scotland and London.
One can't assume that they're overstating Conservative and UKIP support in a general election. Lib Dems always outperform national voting intentions at local council level, and there's still a sizeable vote for independents/Residents etc., at local level, but their vote is negligible in general elections. Conversely, governments rarely match their opinion poll ratings in local council elections.
Take Eastleigh and Watford, for example. They produced thumping wins for the Lib Dems, but it's hard to see them being anything other than Conservative holds in 2020.
Re- Scotland – Labour performed badly but at the same time slightly exceeded expectations. Their constituency vote share was at the high end of forecasts and the general assumption was that they would end up with no constituency seats at all. In the event, they managed to win three – compared with just one at the 2015 General Election. Of course, the Tory outperformance was much more striking, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that had this week seen a Westminster Election – rather than for Holyrood – Labour would have reached 25% with the SNP on circa 45%. That would still have been a big SNP win – but also a step backwards from 2015 when they polled 49% to Labours 24%
Scotland turned right and Labour got hammered. It's opportunity is that it is Scotland's largest centre left party. If the Scots grow to believe cutting the taxes of the well off, subsidising the middle class and squeezing the public services used by the poor are not the way to grow the country's economy, then Labour might have a chance at some stage in the future.
You are not really contradicting my own post. In the past Labour has tended to better at Westminster elections as compared with Holyrood - vice versa for the SNP. Having managed nearly 23% in the constituency vote on Thursday it seems reasonable to suggest that had a Westminster election taken place on the same day Labour would have reached 25% with the SNP on circa 45%. That would have represented some improvement for Labour on its 2015 disaster - though I have no wish to exaggerate it! I suspect that the gloss is at last starting to come off the SNP and that by 2020 Labour could hope for 27% -29% with the SNP on 40% -42%. If so, Labour might end up with 6 - 10 Scottish MPs in the next Parliament.
Corbyn has opposed the benefits cap preferring rent regulation instead
At this moment in time Corbyn opinion or "solution" is irrelevant. If this goes through depends on Tory backbenches. Be interesting to see if they think £6k cut is something they can support. I am sure the BBC and Guardian will be awash with sob stories of potential hardship.
"south of the border the Conservatives NEV significantly underperformed recent Westminster polling, perhaps indicating the Corbyn effect. "
I would suggest that people see UKIP as a safe protest vote that's not Labour between general elections.
If you look at the NEV 2011 - 2015, UKIP seem to exist as a repository of that vote.
In the long term, if people get used to voting UKIP, that's another problem to deal with.
The implications for EU polling are clear . The online pollsters are over stating Conservative support and UKIP support even more so . This goes quite a long way to explaining their more favourable results for Leave compared to phone polls .
Online polls were pretty much spot-on, this time round, when it came to predicting Wales, Scotland and London.
One can't assume that they're overstating Conservative and UKIP support in a general election. Lib Dems always outperform national voting intentions at local council level, and there's still a sizeable vote for independents/Residents etc., at local level, but their vote is negligible in general elections. Conversely, governments rarely match their opinion poll ratings in local council elections.
Take Eastleigh and Watford, for example. They produced thumping wins for the Lib Dems, but it's hard to see them being anything other than Conservative holds in 2020.
The Scotland polls were wrong for the SNP and Conservatives, which was pretty critical. If the results had been like the worst for SnP poll and best for Conservative poll then the SNP would have a majority right now.
I'm suspecting differential turnout but will have to study the numbers to see.
"south of the border the Conservatives NEV significantly underperformed recent Westminster polling, perhaps indicating the Corbyn effect. "
I would suggest that people see UKIP as a safe protest vote that's not Labour between general elections.
If you look at the NEV 2011 - 2015, UKIP seem to exist as a repository of that vote.
In the long term, if people get used to voting UKIP, that's another problem to deal with.
The implications for EU polling are clear . The online pollsters are over stating Conservative support and UKIP support even more so . This goes quite a long way to explaining their more favourable results for Leave compared to phone polls .
Online polls were pretty much spot-on, this time round, when it came to predicting Wales, Scotland and London.
One can't assume that they're overstating Conservative and UKIP support in a general election. Lib Dems always outperform national voting intentions at local council level, and there's still a sizeable vote for independents/Residents etc., at local level, but their vote is negligible in general elections. Conversely, governments rarely match their opinion poll ratings in local council elections.
Take Eastleigh and Watford, for example. They produced thumping wins for the Lib Dems, but it's hard to see them being anything other than Conservative holds in 2020.
Excellent post. I think the Lib Dems would be foolish to think that support in local elections would transfer into a General Election. So a lot of water needs to flow under the bridge before the next General Election, but I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 plays out much like 2015.
Ignoring Western Isles, Orkeny and Shetland for being tiny the parties got over 10,000 votes in the following number of constituencies
LD: 3 LAB: 10 CON: 16 SNP: 69
Subtracting the ones they won gives
LD: 1 LAB: 7 CON: 9 SNP: 10
For Constituencies where they got over 10000 votes but did not win. I feel that gives a decent scope for where parties could improve on the constituency vote, although I haven't looked for the blow out seats where the winner was massively ahead so that could cut the figures down further.
Outside the island seats Ruth Davidson won with the lowest absolute vote of any candidate. the next lowest was Glasgow Kelvin, where a Green Candidate also stood.
2 more observations,
In every seat that the SNP lost it did come second.
There are now 30 seats where the conservatives got more than Labour, up form only 12 in the last election.
Corbyn has opposed the benefits cap preferring rent regulation instead
At this moment in time Corbyn opinion or "solution" is irrelevant. If this goes through depends on Tory backbenches. Be interesting to see if they think £6k cut is something they can support. I am sure the BBC and Guardian will be awash with sob stories of potential hardship.
Given opinion polls will show strong support on this issue I can't imagine Tory backbenchers opposing it especially as it exempts the disabled and households with one member in work, unlike the tax credits row
@Debbiesuth: 1. The lesson learned in Orkney for SNP? Never tell Orcadians they are 'idiots' or 'sheep' for voting LibDem. They vote with deliberation.
@Debbiesuth: 2. NEVER presume you 'represent' the views of the people of Orkney. Nor that you do it because they are too 'incompetent' do it themselves.
@WillHillBet: Man Utd have won 5 of their last 7 away #PL games with #NCFC, will they rack up another victory on the road today? https://t.co/Axpozz5OnP
This lesson is about to be repeated over and over again.
Nicola wants people the SNP described as traitors to support independence. She needs Tory votes to pass tax cuts.
@Debbiesuth: 1. The lesson learned in Orkney for SNP? Never tell Orcadians they are 'idiots' or 'sheep' for voting LibDem. They vote with deliberation.
@Debbiesuth: 2. NEVER presume you 'represent' the views of the people of Orkney. Nor that you do it because they are too 'incompetent' do it themselves.
@WillHillBet: Man Utd have won 5 of their last 7 away #PL games with #NCFC, will they rack up another victory on the road today? https://t.co/Axpozz5OnP
This lesson is about to be repeated over and over again.
Nicola wants people the SNP described as traitors to support independence. She needs Tory votes to pass tax cuts.
Mr. L, if we assume you're right, who does that mean would be best as next Conservative leader?
I don't have a name but it really should not be pretty much any of the current front runners. I thought Sajid Javid looked a real possibility but he has disappointed so far in office. Characters are rare in modern politics but if there is one central theme from yesterday's results it is that character and personality are of increasing importance and political dogmatism less so. Yet another way in which Corbyn looks ridiculously out of step.
I REALLY do not understand why Javid has ever been talked up. He's shocking on the telly. Bumbling, looks like he's from outer space, and what's he actually achieved - bar being mates with Osborne?
Being the son of bus driver isn't something I look for in a potential leader.
Being son of a bus driver did not do Sadiq Khan any harm but Philip Hammond is the value bet for next Tory leader for me
I think you are right about Hammond, Mr. HYUFD, though I think one of the younger ladies might appeal more outside the Party.
Scotland is Ruth Davidson’s home. She rejected the idea that being a Scottish Tory was somehow to be a stranger in her own land. The time for apologising, for asking for a fair hearing and a square chance, was over. Her Tory party would stand for the Union and for kicking the SNP whenever and wherever it deserved to be kicked. If voters didn’t like that then so be it. But she had a hunch they might like it, a sense there was a constituency for passionate and steel toe-capped unionism. This is our country too, she said.
"south of the border the Conservatives NEV significantly underperformed recent Westminster polling, perhaps indicating the Corbyn effect. "
I would suggest that people see UKIP as a safe protest vote that's not Labour between general elections.
If you look at the NEV 2011 - 2015, UKIP seem to exist as a repository of that vote.
In the long term, if people get used to voting UKIP, that's another problem to deal with.
The implications for EU polling are clear . The online pollsters are over stating Conservative support and UKIP support even more so . This goes quite a long way to explaining their more favourable results for Leave compared to phone polls .
Online polls were pretty much spot-on, this time round, when it came to predicting Wales, Scotland and London.
One can't assume that they're overstating Conservative and UKIP support in a general election. Lib Dems always outperform national voting intentions at local council level, and there's still a sizeable vote for independents/Residents etc., at local level, but their vote is negligible in general elections. Conversely, governments rarely match their opinion poll ratings in local council elections.
Take Eastleigh and Watford, for example. They produced thumping wins for the Lib Dems, but it's hard to see them being anything other than Conservative holds in 2020.
Excellent post. I think the Lib Dems would be foolish to think that support in local elections would transfer into a General Election. So a lot of water needs to flow under the bridge before the next General Election, but I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 plays out much like 2015.
Don't know about Watford, but disagree about Eastleigh.
Mr. L, if we assume you're right, who does that mean would be best as next Conservative leader?
I don't have a name but it really should not be pretty much any of the current front runners. I thought Sajid Javid looked a real possibility but he has disappointed so far in office. Characters are rare in modern politics but if there is one central theme from yesterday's results it is that character and personality are of increasing importance and political dogmatism less so. Yet another way in which Corbyn looks ridiculously out of step.
I REALLY do not understand why Javid has ever been talked up. He's shocking on the telly. Bumbling, looks like he's from outer space, and what's he actually achieved - bar being mates with Osborne?
Being the son of bus driver isn't something I look for in a potential leader.
Being son of a bus driver did not do Sadiq Khan any harm but Philip Hammond is the value bet for next Tory leader for me
I agree (and wrote so not long ago). All the public will be looking for from the Conservatives at the next election is sober competence, particularly if the alternative is Jeremy Corbyn.
Another comment: Sadiq Khan calls other people "Uncle Toms", when he wants to get non-white votes, but he's an Uncle Tom himself! He calls himself a Muslim and supports gay marriage. As all Muslims know (apart from Uncle Toms!), homosexuality is forbidden (haram) in Islam. Keeping to the traditional Muslim view doesn't imply that someone wants to blow stuff up.
In public relations terms we are witnessing "polarisation PR", not just the rainbow Coca-Cola advertisement PR that many people think.
Interesting that Khan used Southwark Cathedral for his swearing in ceremony. If Zac had won could he have used a mosque? But then the CoE hierarchy is an outpost of the Labour Party.
On the one hand that is very petty, and the reason they state for doing so nonsensical, but on the other I actually appreciate someone being honest about their own pettiness and not including some phony message of congratulations or respect for their opponent.
Have other people noticed this video on Facebook? I think it is brilliant, sums up the positive case for leave in 3min 20sec. and it seems to be going viral, at least by referendum standards 2.7 million views in 3 days.
Comments from Cardiff North count on election night from the local paper:
Julie Morgan (Labour incumbent AM) arriving at the count: "'I came here not expecting to win" "
Jayne Cowan (Con candidate): "We worked very hard and got a very good reception as we campaigned. I can’t understand what has happened.”
Craig Williams (Con local MP): “Ask me in a week. I will get to the bottom of it.”
Rhodri Morgan (former First Minister and husband of Julie): “The Conservative vote has taken a hit in Cardiff. Their vote collapsed in Cardiff West and they did much worse than expected in Cardiff North. There’s some explanation for it, but I don’t know what it is. Is it the steel crisis? Maybe.But this result is beyond our wildest dreams".
It all sounds as a big "we don't have a clue". It's interesting as we are here all day trying to predict what will happen while people on the ground sometimes barely know what's happening.
Comments from Cardiff North count on election night from the local paper:
Julie Morgan (Labour incumbent AM) arriving at the count: "'I came here not expecting to win" "
Jayne Cowan (Con candidate): "We worked very hard and got a very good reception as we campaigned. I can’t understand what has happened.”
Craig Williams (Con local MP): “Ask me in a week. I will get to the bottom of it.”
Rhodri Morgan (former First Minister and husband of Julie): “The Conservative vote has taken a hit in Cardiff. Their vote collapsed in Cardiff West and they did much worse than expected in Cardiff North. There’s some explanation for it, but I don’t know what it is. Is it the steel crisis? Maybe.But this result is beyond our wildest dreams".
It all sounds as a big "we don't have a clue". It's interesting as we are here all day trying to predict what will happen while people on the ground sometimes barely know what's happening.
The answer is I suspect that Julie Morgan has a significant personal vote.
She kept the swing to the Conservatives low in the Westminster constituency in 2010 and did well in the Cardiff constituencies in both 2011 and 2016.
The old guard running the Guardian might have been happy to run up enormous debts, but it seems the new crew have a bit more financial awareness.
Having realised they'd recently taken delivery of 36 grand's worth of sofas for editorial meeting rooms they did what any self-respecting crowd of cost-watchers would do.
Hid them in a storage room until the current round of 250 redundancies have been safely taken care of.
Have other people noticed this video on Facebook? I think it is brilliant, sums up the positive case for leave in 3min 20sec. and it seems to be going viral, at least by referendum standards 2.7 million views in 3 days.
"No-one is proposing we would ever leave this trade block if we left the EU."
That's a highly tendentious and misleading claim. There isn't even a single block that covers all of the area they show on the map so it's not at all clear what people are supposed to believe we would not be leaving.
I'm sure this has been posted somewhere. It's worth looking at because he's right. Some might think you should be magnanimous in victory like khan himself but this is going to have consequences. Cameron twice raised this at PMQ's . It was a foolish thing to do, Anyone doubting the reputational damage this sort of thing does need look no further than Ken once the most popular politician in the land
Seems Corbyn's man has won in Bristol. My Bristol sources tell me that the current independent mayor was extremely unpopular due to his bonkers eco bollocks policies. Be interesting if Corbynism produces even more bonkers ideas.
The old guard running the Guardian might have been happy to run up enormous debts, but it seems the new crew have a bit more financial awareness.
Having realised they'd recently taken delivery of 36 grand's worth of sofas for editorial meeting rooms they did what any self-respecting crowd of cost-watchers would do.
Hid them in a storage room until the current round of 250 redundancies have been safely taken care of.
@faisalislam: Tooting Labour majority is 2000 - presumably they'd have to fast track selection procedures. conservatives have @DanWatkins already in place
Mr. L, if we assume you're right, who does that mean would be best as next Conservative leader?
I don't have a name but it really should not be pretty much any of the current front runners. I thought Sajid Javid looked a real possibility but he has disappointed so far in office. Characters are rare in modern politics but if there is one central theme from yesterday's results it is that character and personality are of increasing importance and political dogmatism less so. Yet another way in which Corbyn looks ridiculously out of step.
I REALLY do not understand why Javid has ever been talked up. He's shocking on the telly. Bumbling, looks like he's from outer space, and what's he actually achieved - bar being mates with Osborne?
Being the son of bus driver isn't something I look for in a potential leader.
Being son of a bus driver did not do Sadiq Khan any harm but Philip Hammond is the value bet for next Tory leader for me
I agree (and wrote so not long ago). All the public will be looking for from the Conservatives at the next election is sober competence, particularly if the alternative is Jeremy Corbyn.
Indeed if it is a narrow Remain, as is most likely, Hammond is sceptic enough to appeal to Leavers while having nominally backed Remain to appeal to Cameroons. As Foreign Secretary he also has a big enough role to be a contender to lead a party in government. He could be the John Major of 2020 especially against Corbyn or McDonnell or Watson
@faisalislam: Tooting Labour majority is 2000 - presumably they'd have to fast track selection procedures. conservatives have @DanWatkins already in place
I presume Labour will win easily. London constantly shifting Labour, Khan will give his backing, there will be lots of references to Tories campaign for mayor (and Tooting has a high Asian population).
Mr. L, if we assume you're right, who does that mean would be best as next Conservative leader?
I don't have a name but it really should not be pretty much any of the current front runners. I thought Sajid Javid looked a real possibility but he has disappointed so far in office. Characters are rare in modern politics but if there is one central theme from yesterday's results it is that character and personality are of increasing importance and political dogmatism less so. Yet another way in which Corbyn looks ridiculously out of step.
I REALLY do not understand why Javid has ever been talked up. He's shocking on the telly. Bumbling, looks like he's from outer space, and what's he actually achieved - bar being mates with Osborne?
Being the son of bus driver isn't something I look for in a potential leader.
Being son of a bus driver did not do Sadiq Khan any harm but Philip Hammond is the value bet for next Tory leader for me
I think you are right about Hammond, Mr. HYUFD, though I think one of the younger ladies might appeal more outside the Party.
In power the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary historically and as David points out with Labour's weak leadership the Tories have less need of a charismatic leader with mass appeal
@faisalislam: Certainly last September had been talk that a certain Ken Livingstone might have had eye on Tooting, he denied it to me. Can't happen now.
@faisalislam: I understand Tooting by-election pencilled in for June 9 - before the EU referendum: another big test for Corbyn, and selection harmony
He should pass the test - looking at the seat it seems the Tories get close every now and then, but never end up taking it. With the Tories tearing themselves to bits and Corbyn apparently playing well in London and a victorious mayor talking up whoever is selected to replace him, surely Lab should manage it. And given the rumoured appearence of Ken as a potential candidate will now definitely not happen, if it ever would have, who could be so divisive internally within Labour it would cost them?
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
Crickey pays well this being on benefits in London... ;-)
Given the median wage in London is £33k for full time workers and £28k for all workers, £23k does not go very far for a family, not that it should when coming from welfare.
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
Crickey pays well this being on benefits in London... ;-)
Given the median wage in London is £33k for full time workers and £28k for all workers, £23k does not go very far for a family, not that it should when coming from welfare
You missed the gag....there was a typo which I highlighted in bold!
£20k a year tax free. Nearly £400 a week in benefits.
Mr and Mrs Average in Nuneaton and Thurrock will probably view that as enough.
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, though the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
A lot of average workers will look at those numbers and wonder what the hell the welfare state is playing at.
No it is obviously £23k a year, £23k a week would make them millionaires. The average national median wage for full time workers is £27k so £20k again does not go that far for a family
£20k a year tax free. Nearly £400 a week in benefits.
Mr and Mrs Average in Nuneaton and Thurrock will probably view that as enough.
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, though the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
A lot of average workers will look at those numbers and wonder what the hell the welfare state is playing at.
No it is obviously £23k a year, £23k a week would make them millionaires. The average national median wage for full time workers is £27k so £20k again does not go that far for a family
£20k a year tax free. Nearly £400 a week in benefits.
Mr and Mrs Average in Nuneaton and Thurrock will probably view that as enough.
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, though the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
A lot of average workers will look at those numbers and wonder what the hell the welfare state is playing at.
No it is obviously £23k a year, £23k a week would make them millionaires. The average national median wage for full time workers is £27k so £20k again does not go that far for a family
What would you set the cap at? Zero?
£20k for a family seems about right given that could include 2 adults, with the new minimum wage 2 adults earning that would be on £32k combined household income, so that provides a basic income but an incentive to get a job, even if only paying minimum wage
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
Crickey pays well this being on benefits in London... ;-)
Given the median wage in London is £33k for full time workers and £28k for all workers, £23k does not go very far for a family, not that it should when coming from welfare
You missed the gag....there was a typo which I highlighted in bold!
Yes sorry, I was going to say, otherwise why would you not go on welfare if you can automatically become a multimillionaire!
Comments
So will he offer a Tory failure to get the largest vote share at 11\1?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3578279/Benefits-cap-slashed-26-000-20-000-family-Claimants-told-jobs-handouts-cut.html
http://nypost.com/2015/10/02/secret-service-agents-hillary-is-a-nightmare-to-work-with/
He shared articles on Facebook alleging that Daesh has used weapons made in Israel, comparing Mossad with the Nazis and accusing Israel of genocide against the Palestinians.
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/157845/labour-suspends-walthamstow-activist-antisemitic-facebook-posts
I suspect for a lot of people it was precisely because the SCons are THE "unionist party", and that's probably the fault line in Scottish politics for the near future.
41% turnout.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/06/0705-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png
2 Lab gains from Con 1 Con gain from Lab
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/how-could-zac-goldsmith-lose-london-so-badly-the-conservatives-c/
"The Conservative grassroots are pretty thin in the capital – party members are vastly outnumbered by their Labour Party counterparts. Even in the digital age this matters – the number of doors knocked on and leaflets through letterboxes matters. It is not fair to hold Mr Goldsmith responsible for the relative weakness of his party in London. Blame for the state of the voluntary Conservative party belongs much higher up the party hierarchy. "
One can't assume that they're overstating Conservative and UKIP support in a general election. Lib Dems always outperform national voting intentions at local council level, and there's still a sizeable vote for independents/Residents etc., at local level, but their vote is negligible in general elections. Conversely, governments rarely match their opinion poll ratings in local council elections.
Take Eastleigh and Watford, for example. They produced thumping wins for the Lib Dems, but it's hard to see them being anything other than Conservative holds in 2020.
...and when was Pat Kane ever wrong?
I'm suspecting differential turnout but will have to study the numbers to see.
In every seat that the SNP lost it did come second.
There are now 30 seats where the conservatives got more than Labour, up form only 12 in the last election.
Mr and Mrs Average in Nuneaton and Thurrock will probably view that as enough.
Corbyn is, of course, coming at it from a London viewpoint, though the cap there is £23,000 a week tax free.
A lot of average workers will look at those numbers and wonder what the hell the welfare state is playing at.
@Debbiesuth: 2. NEVER presume you 'represent' the views of the people of Orkney. Nor that you do it because they are too 'incompetent' do it themselves.
@WillHillBet: Man Utd have won 5 of their last 7 away #PL games with #NCFC, will they rack up another victory on the road today? https://t.co/Axpozz5OnP
This lesson is about to be repeated over and over again.
Nicola wants people the SNP described as traitors to support independence. She needs Tory votes to pass tax cuts.
Joyous. And civic...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36228104
Ivan McKee an MSP, ffs
@FraserWhyte81: Oh and non-party affiliated Women for Independence with another two (?) as well
Who'd have thunk it
St Lukes 2 X Lib Dems elected previously a 3 member ward 2 LD 1 Con
The big turnout of 45% had already raised Labour's hopes of their man Marvin Rees ousting Independent George Ferguson.
And as the votes stack up, it looks increasingly likely that will be the case.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-bristol-36235467
Corbynism replacing Corduroy-ism...Interesting they are reporting a high turn out like in London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/07/sadiq-khans-london-mayoral-win-tories-will-not-back-down-on-fear/
If Zac had won could he have used a mosque?
But then the CoE hierarchy is an outpost of the Labour Party.
And our old friend tim a lot of money in lost bets.
LD Gain 1 from Con
Have other people noticed this video on Facebook? I think it is brilliant, sums up the positive case for leave in 3min 20sec. and it seems to be going viral, at least by referendum standards 2.7 million views in 3 days.
https://www.facebook.com/leaveeuofficial/videos/946139178817657/
Julie Morgan (Labour incumbent AM) arriving at the count: "'I came here not expecting to win" "
Jayne Cowan (Con candidate): "We worked very hard and got a very good reception as we campaigned. I can’t understand what has happened.”
Craig Williams (Con local MP): “Ask me in a week. I will get to the bottom of it.”
Rhodri Morgan (former First Minister and husband of Julie): “The Conservative vote has taken a hit in Cardiff. Their vote collapsed in Cardiff West and they did much worse than expected in Cardiff North. There’s some explanation for it, but I don’t know what it is. Is it the steel crisis? Maybe.But this result is beyond our wildest dreams".
It all sounds as a big "we don't have a clue". It's interesting as we are here all day trying to predict what will happen while people on the ground sometimes barely know what's happening.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
She kept the swing to the Conservatives low in the Westminster constituency in 2010 and did well in the Cardiff constituencies in both 2011 and 2016.
That's a highly tendentious and misleading claim. There isn't even a single block that covers all of the area they show on the map so it's not at all clear what people are supposed to believe we would not be leaving.
Much of the rest of the video is simply lies.
Will Ken stand?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/07/zac-goldsmith-racist-campaign-london
Are the cushions stuffed with unicorn hair?
LD 6 Con 3 Res 3
Res gain 2 from Con
Oxshott ward 3 Con No Change