London anecdote alert: Low turn is Labour's key concern. Ken V Boris were like Ali V Frazier, and they got 38% turnout. This election is heading for sub-35% and that hurts Labour more than others. Old and right vote more than young and left.
And worse still for Labour, ethnic minorities like Hindus and Jews, who may have voted Labour in the past are unlikely to vote Red on 5th May because of the divisive candidate.
Khan may have polished his crown and shoes but has now gone to ground, because he fears showing his face reminds people how the Labour party have been taken over the one religion, who are not kind to other religions. So, really, the value bet is Zac. I now have 2 people I really, really trust have told me: sub-35% turnout and Zac has a 50/50 chance. A 3rd person I trust a bit says the same. 1 Labour source, 1 Tory, 1 media. DYOR, but I say risk a few pennies on Zac.
I suspect that rather underestimates the integration of the EU into domestic law, never mind the international law aspects (Britain would still in fact be a member of the EU if it repealed the 1972 Act; it would just be in breach of its treaty obligations).
London anecdote alert: Low turn is Labour's key concern. Ken V Boris were like Ali V Frazier, and they got 38% turnout. This election is heading for sub-35% and that hurts Labour more than others. Old and right vote more than young and left.
And worse still for Labour, ethnic minorities like Hindus and Jews, who may have voted Labour in the past are unlikely to vote Red on 5th May because of the divisive candidate.
Khan may have polished his crown and shoes but has now gone to ground, because he fears showing his face reminds people how the Labour party have been taken over the one religion, who are not kind to other religions. So, really, the value bet is Zac. I now have 2 people I really, really trust have told me: sub-35% turnout and Zac has a 50/50 chance. A 3rd person I trust a bit says the same. 1 Labour source, 1 Tory, 1 media. DYOR, but I say risk a few pennies on Zac.
Any other views out there?
Low turn out maybe but Ken had largely alienated the Jewish vote last time so that is priced in.
Press Association has found that no LibDem candidates are standing for nearly 10% of the councils holding elections next week
Is that right, or is it that there is/are no Lib Dem(s) in 10% of the council *seats*?
Either way it sounds iffy. There are only six Lib Dems in Wakefield, for example, so I'd be surprised if their coverage is as high as 90% nationally though it might be; Wakefield has always been a weak area so perhaps I have a locally biased view there. On the other hand, to have zero candidates in a tenth of all council areas seems extraordinary.
No Liberal Democrat candidates will be on the ballot paper for nearly one in 10 of the councils holding elections next week, new figures show.
In areas as far apart as Salford in north-west England and Thurrock in the south-east, not a single Lib Dem is standing, forcing party members to choose someone else to support - or not vote at all. Analysis by the Press Association has also found that Ukip is fielding more candidates than the Lib Dems in more than a quarter of the contests.
Responding to the findings, a Lib Dem spokesman said: "Liberal Democrats are immersed in our communities and will stand up for them on the issues that affect their day to day lives. Our membership has grown by over 20,000 since the general election and we will be fighting a strong campaign in May."
Across England as a whole, the Lib Dems have a total of 1,758 candidates compared with Ukip's 1,388. But in 34 of the 124 areas holding elections one week today, Ukip candidates outnumber those for the Lib Dems.
Gosh. That's a quite remarkable atrophying of what was once a national party.
I know - Lib Dems were huge in local government once, how far they've retrenched. Frankly, I can't see how they can come back within the short or medium term. The *what's the point of the LDs* question was asked and answered in 2010.
Whoever is running the BSE campaign has lost the plot a bit today
In response to today's Economists for Brexit report, one of their spokespeople has attempted to rubbish it by actually highlighting one of the ridiculous assumptions used in the Treasury report, i.e. that the UK post Brexit would impose large import tariffs on various goods. See the end of this link.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - hiring trade unions to scuttle round a country handing out Vote Remain pamphlets to its own voters".
And then Cameron wins again ....
Not if he is losing Tories like Plato and I he won't the Tories are toast if they continue in their current direction.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - hiring trade unions to scuttle round a country handing out Vote Remain pamphlets to its own voters".
This campaign has certainly resulted in some strange bed-fellows.
George Galloway & Michael Gove?
President Putin and Plato President Hollande and TSE Gerry Adams and Richard Nabavi Nigel Farage and Robert Smithson Jeremy Corbyn and Scott P Ian Botham and Sunil Chewbacca and OGH Marine Le Pen and MikeK
Ok not the last one .... she only likes the under 80's ....
I have been on Naz Shah's twitter account and I was astonished by how many people calling themselves Labour supporters regard it as a trivial matter.
It's clearly becoming a big problem for the Labour Party and they need to stamp it out and quickly if they're to avoid Corbyn getting dragged into it - which is what a number of those raising the issue want of course.
As was suggested by others yesterday, one gets the feeling that as the Muslim demographic is more numerous than the Jewish demographic, and as they hate each other it's better to appeal to the larger group. Smart electoral politics but not a good look to the general public.
Guido has clearly been sitting on this for a while, and he probably has a number of follow ups on others to come. The timing is most likely designed to drag Sadiq Khan into the row before the London elections, Guido's being doing the drip-drip on him for months now.
A convincing argument for why we remain a sovereign nation.
A convincing argument for how we can become a sovereign nation.
Fixed it for you.
From a technical point of view, simply repealing the European Communities Act is a dumb way to leave the EU, as it would make a lot of other existing law contradictory, and would leave a lot of businesses (and some individuals) in a legal limbo.
Invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is a much, much more sensible idea.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - hiring trade unions to scuttle round a country handing out Vote Remain pamphlets to its own voters".
And then Cameron wins again ....
Not if he is losing Tories like Plato and I he won't the Tories are toast if they continue in their current direction.
Families squabble. I remember the same being said in the 1975 referendum.
Good to see, but so weak. This really is a poor administration.
Actually, it's worse than that. It's a dishonest administration - and that is truly one of the most unforgivable aspects of this whole EU referendum sage, that our own government is more dishonest than even the appalling Vote Leave/Leave EU mob.
I'm still WTF that Cameron's desire to win has now descended into pork barrelling with the unions to the tune of £1.7m more money for Remain campaigning. Everyday he plumbs a new low. Who is he? I'm seriously unimpressed.
I have always taught my kids that its important to be engaged with the political process. But once this referendum is past, I might not continue to be so myself.
I think I'll simply spoil my paper at every opportunity.
And it's all so unnecessary too. I'm beginning to empathise with Tories who feel homeless and those who buggered off to UKIP. Things I simply never understood before. I got why Old Labour didn't like New Labour - feeling it personally is another thing all together, it's visceral.
The problem is the lack of a truly Liberal alternative (not a Lib Dem party). Both main parties are largely Statist and Authoritarian (and largely incompetent)
I'm searching for a political party that will:
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
I think we should start a party - doesn't sound so far from where I stand!
Press Association has found that no LibDem candidates are standing for nearly 10% of the councils holding elections next week
Can't find deposits or can't find candidates?
You don't need a deposit for a local council election; just a candidate and ten people who'll nominate you (which really isn't hard).
Wow, so a paper candidate costs nothing and they still can't find enough people to stand!
Interestingly, the Lib Dems *are* contesting 30 PCC elections, each of which needs a fairly chunky deposit of £5k. Considering that they're polling only in the upper single figures at the moment, this seems like a curious choice of resource priority, even if little is actually being spent on the elections themselves.
A convincing argument for why we remain a sovereign nation.
A convincing argument for how we can become a sovereign nation.
Fixed it for you.
From a technical point of view, simply repealing the European Communities Act is a dumb way to leave the EU, as it would make a lot of other existing law contradictory, and would leave a lot of businesses (and some individuals) in a legal limbo.
Invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is a much, much more sensible idea.
Hypothetically, if the EU offered a completely unreasonable and unacceptable deal when we invoke Article 50, and were not prepared to negotiate in a way which made it even borderline acceptable, what is the next course of action ?
Press Association has found that no LibDem candidates are standing for nearly 10% of the councils holding elections next week
Can't find deposits or can't find candidates?
You don't need a deposit for a local council election; just a candidate and ten people who'll nominate you (which really isn't hard).
Wow, so a paper candidate costs nothing and they still can't find enough people to stand!
Is this part of a wider problem though? The 'bowling alone' phenomenon. Complete disengagement from local politics, joining parties and actually turning up at meetings etc. Indeed disengagement from doing stuff full stop. It looks bad for LibDems but I'm sure there are other parties even including Tories who increasingly rely on a handful of people in each area to do the work.
Good to see, but so weak. This really is a poor administration.
Actually, it's worse than that. It's a dishonest administration - and that is truly one of the most unforgivable aspects of this whole EU referendum sage, that our own government is more dishonest than even the appalling Vote Leave/Leave EU mob.
I'm still WTF that Cameron's desire to win has now descended into pork barrelling with the unions to the tune of £1.7m more money for Remain campaigning. Everyday he plumbs a new low. Who is he? I'm seriously unimpressed.
I have always taught my kids that its important to be engaged with the political process. But once this referendum is past, I might not continue to be so myself.
I think I'll simply spoil my paper at every opportunity.
And it's all so unnecessary too. I'm beginning to empathise with Tories who feel homeless and those who buggered off to UKIP. Things I simply never understood before. I got why Old Labour didn't like New Labour - feeling it personally is another thing all together, it's visceral.
The problem is the lack of a truly Liberal alternative (not a Lib Dem party). Both main parties are largely Statist and Authoritarian (and largely incompetent)
I'm searching for a political party that will:
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
I think we should start a party - doesn't sound so far from where I stand!
I'd vote for that. I thought I had, it's increasingly looking like I was duped.
A convincing argument for why we remain a sovereign nation.
A convincing argument for how we can become a sovereign nation.
Fixed it for you.
From a technical point of view, simply repealing the European Communities Act is a dumb way to leave the EU, as it would make a lot of other existing law contradictory, and would leave a lot of businesses (and some individuals) in a legal limbo.
Invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is a much, much more sensible idea.
Hypothetically, if the EU offered a completely unreasonable and unacceptable deal when we invoke Article 50, and were not prepared to negotiate in a way which made it even borderline acceptable, what is the next course of action ?
We automatically leave the EU at the two year mark anyway, so we'd negotiate right up to the two year point. We'd also use the gap as a (necessary) period to redraft all existing laws that refer to the EU, and to alter the tax code (in particular as regards VAT) as appropriate.
At the two year point, unless both us and the EU wished to extend the period, we'd leave.
I have been on Naz Shah's twitter account and I was astonished by how many people calling themselves Labour supporters regard it as a trivial matter.
It's clearly becoming a big problem for the Labour Party and they need to stamp it out and quickly if they're to avoid Corbyn getting dragged into it - which is what a number of those raising the issue want of course.
As was suggested by others yesterday, one gets the feeling that as the Muslim demographic is more numerous than the Jewish demographic, and as they hate each other it's better to appeal to the larger group. Smart electoral politics but not a good look to the general public.
[snip]
it's not smart politics if it reinforces a group that was already predominantly Labour (albeit a growing one and one that had become more prone to looking elsewhere), at the cost of losing both polite society and WWC Labour supporters who already think that muslims have more than enough interests looking after them.
Mr. Indigo, I imagine Cameron would wish to offer us a second referendum so we can vote the 'right' way.
Although if the Obama intervention is anything to go by, it might backfire massively.
Indeed. After his beer and sandwiches with the trade unions in No 10 over supporting Remain I am not interested in what he is offering, when the conservative have a conservative leader I might consider joining and voting for them again.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
I think we should start a party - doesn't sound so far from where I stand!
Enough there for me to vote for.
Have we enough for a saved deposit in any seats yet?
No fan of betting machines in shops and personally believe the limits should be lowered further,however it doesn't address the problem of online gambling. To be fair there have been a lot of improvements recently. For example a new scheme means customers can self exclude from all betting shops in one hit rather than on a company by company basis plus a lot more staff involvement looking out for problem gambling. Online is a different kettle of fish unfortunately.
Although the public campaign has had its challenges, on the email front I've had more from VoteLeave - yesterday's examples:
The EU is using YOUR money to keep Africa poor
OECD confirms only way to control migration is to Vote Leave
I wonder if we're starting to see a concerted effort from Vote Leave to target the Labour vote.
I certainly share more pro-Labour messages. And VoteLeave/GO are getting better at them. GO are much better at punchy stuff, VL have more micro groups.
A convincing argument for why we remain a sovereign nation.
A convincing argument for how we can become a sovereign nation.
Fixed it for you.
From a technical point of view, simply repealing the European Communities Act is a dumb way to leave the EU, as it would make a lot of other existing law contradictory, and would leave a lot of businesses (and some individuals) in a legal limbo.
Invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is a much, much more sensible idea.
Oh I agree - sledgehammer-nut, that sort of thing - or using a broadsword instead of a rapier.
When LEAVE win it will be far better to have an amicable divorce than squabbling. For several years UK legislation will still be in effect European legislation - it is only when something turns up for the benefit of the UK that it will be changed. Which is why Vote Leave are saying we won't be leaving the EU in effect for some time.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - hiring trade unions to scuttle round a country handing out Vote Remain pamphlets to its own voters".
This campaign has certainly resulted in some strange bed-fellows.
George Galloway & Michael Gove?
President Putin and Plato President Hollande and TSE Gerry Adams and Richard Nabavi Nigel Farage and Robert Smithson Jeremy Corbyn and Scott P Ian Botham and Sunil Chewbacca and OGH Marine Le Pen and MikeK
Ok not the last one .... she only likes the under 80's ....
The bizarre JackW ( always right ), SO ( always wrong ) and Roger ( always wrong, except Oscars ) ménage à trois will hopefully be one man one vote.
Good to see, but so weak. This really is a poor administration.
Actually, it's worse than that. It's a dishonest administration - and that is truly one of the most unforgivable aspects of this whole EU referendum sage, that our own government is more dishonest than even the appalling Vote Leave/Leave EU mob.
I'm still WTF that Cameron's desire to win has now descended into pork barrelling with the unions to the tune of £1.7m more money for Remain campaigning. Everyday he plumbs a new low. Who is he? I'm seriously unimpressed.
I have always taught my kids that its important to be engaged with the political process. But once this referendum is past, I might not continue to be so myself.
I think I'll simply spoil my paper at every opportunity.
And it's all so unnecessary too. I'm beginning to empathise with Tories who feel homeless and those who buggered off to UKIP. Things I simply never understood before. I got why Old Labour didn't like New Labour - feeling it personally is another thing all together, it's visceral.
The problem is the lack of a truly Liberal alternative (not a Lib Dem party). Both main parties are largely Statist and Authoritarian (and largely incompetent)
I'm searching for a political party that will:
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
Press Association has found that no LibDem candidates are standing for nearly 10% of the councils holding elections next week
Can't find deposits or can't find candidates?
You don't need a deposit for a local council election; just a candidate and ten people who'll nominate you (which really isn't hard).
Wow, so a paper candidate costs nothing and they still can't find enough people to stand!
Is this part of a wider problem though? The 'bowling alone' phenomenon. Complete disengagement from local politics, joining parties and actually turning up at meetings etc. Indeed disengagement from doing stuff full stop. It looks bad for LibDems but I'm sure there are other parties even including Tories who increasingly rely on a handful of people in each area to do the work.
But don't the Tories just get their servants to do the leafleting?
Incidentally, I read 'Bowling Alone' - heavy going, but it does demonstrate the individualisation of US society with many graphs and stats.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
I think we should start a party - doesn't sound so far from where I stand!
Enough there for me to vote for.
Have we enough for a saved deposit in any seats yet?
The problem is that there a great many 'minority interests' that derail that kind of ticket - and the minority interests generally tend to end up trumping the general interest that true liberalism tends to represent.
Good to see, but so weak. This really is a poor administration.
Actually, it's worse than that. It's a dishonest administration - and that is truly one of the most unforgivable aspects of this whole EU referendum sage, that our own government is more dishonest than even the appalling Vote Leave/Leave EU mob.
I'm still WTF that Cameron's desire to win has now descended into pork barrelling with the unions to the tune of £1.7m more money for Remain campaigning. Everyday he plumbs a new low. Who is he? I'm seriously unimpressed.
I have always taught my kids that its important to be engaged with the political process. But once this referendum is past, I might not continue to be so myself.
I think I'll simply spoil my paper at every opportunity.
And it's all so unnecessary too. I'm beginning to empathise with Tories who feel homeless and those who buggered off to UKIP. Things I simply never understood before. I got why Old Labour didn't like New Labour - feeling it personally is another thing all together, it's visceral.
The problem is the lack of a truly Liberal alternative (not a Lib Dem party). Both main parties are largely Statist and Authoritarian (and largely incompetent)
I'm searching for a political party that will:
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
I'd vote for that.
A Conservative party .... led by either Andrea Leadsom or Dominic Raab.
Zac's down to 2% on Betfair, new poll coming out ?
People have had it with the Posh Boys.
You sound like a lefty class warrior. You're going to be very disappointed if Remain wins aren't you?
If Remain win, I join the kippers, as do a lot of Tories.
Smart politics would be for Kippers to join the Tories not the other way around. Get a Brexiteer as next PM before the next election.
Certainly be the right time to do it if the next election is against Corbyn. Don't fancy the chances of that alliance against a more popular labour leader. I think ukip would haemorrhage votes back to the more moderate left.. I could see centrist swing voters deserting The Tories too in those circumstances. Personally I'd find it hard to support a Tory/ukip coalition. Its not so much the EU thing, although I'm a remainer, anyone can see its in need of reform, it's the perceived bigotry with regard to homosexuality, immigration blah blah blah that's so unattractive. Conjures up visions of Peter Lilley making up songs about single mothers and represents a lot of what destroyed the Tories Electoral hopes till Cameron came along. When push comes to shove if Daves still there in 2020 he'll beat Corbyn. So would May who's played a blinder so far. Wouldn't fancy any if the others against anyone bar Jezza though.
but I think what Mr Campbell is saying is an inconvenient truth.
No.
There are two options for what he is saying. The first is tautologically pointless. No one is blaming invisible pixies for the people being crushed to death. No insight is gained from saying it was crowd members that crushed other crowd members. We know that. It is a vacuous, pseudo-intellectual statement at best.
The other option is that it is victim blaming because quite surely some of those who were crushed so hard that their rib cages collapsed were also pressing against other who had the same happen to them either before or after they died. And this happened whilst people only feet away had no idea it was occurring. In crush and pre-crush situations people can take locally optimal, even logical, decisions for themselves that are devastating for the crowd as a whole. Not one person in that crowd thought "I know, I'll push this person so hard they won't be able to breather"
The whole notion of "not pushing" is based on some utopian vision of crowds that involves never, ever making contact with anyone ever. And Campbell's notion that once it starts to get a bit leary that the best response would have been people outside the crush boundary pushing back against the inflow is so obviously fucking stupid that I am not even going to waste my time explaining how fucking stupid that is.
People are also completely ignoring that the reason why there was such a rush into the pens was because people were escaping the crush that had formed around the turnstiles and took the most direct obvious line of escape - into the already overcrowded pens. An hour before the match basic maths could tell you that it was going to be impossible to get all the fans through the turnstiles before kick off - the abject police failure to steward the supporters outside the ground created a dangerous crush situation that was only relieved by tipping over the pens into total disaster.
Look, here's the report on the Love Parade crowd disaster to get this clear of football fans.
Here's the key lines "As was pointed out in Sec. 2.3, when the crowd was trapped in a situation of extreme density, it did not have a chance to get an overview of the situation and possible ways to improve it, in particular to get out of the area."
"However, it took some time until the criticality of the situation was noticed and evacuation measures were taken. When the evacuation finally became effective, the ramp cleared quickly."
In dense crowd situations it takes external observation and direction for a crowd to safely disperse.
REcord really on the ball, who would imagine there is a national election in 7 days , when pap like this is their big story. Is it any wonder the Daily Retard has plumetting sales.
I love the weasel's " not in a good way " caveat. Just to make extra sure.
That from a rabid Tory is a compliment for Scottish Nationalists, means they are as far from the grotesque odious character they despise so much by a country mile.
but I think what Mr Campbell is saying is an inconvenient truth.
No.
There are two options for what he is saying. The first is tautologically pointless. No one is blaming invisible pixies for the people being crushed to death. No insight is gained from saying it was crowd members that crushed other crowd members. We know that. It is a vacuous, pseudo-intellectual statement at best.
The other option is that it is victim blaming because quite surely some of those who were crushed so hard that their rib cages collapsed were also pressing against other who had the same happen to them either before or after they died. And this happened whilst people only feet away had no idea it was occurring. In crush and pre-crush situations people can take locally optimal, even logical, decisions for themselves that are devastating for the crowd as a whole. Not one person in that crowd thought "I know, I'll push this person so hard they won't be able to breather"
The whole notion of "not pushing" is based on some utopian vision of crowds
People are also completely ignoring that the reason why there was such a rush Look, here's the report on the Love Parade crowd disaster to get this clear of football fans.
Here's the key lines "As was pointed out in Sec. 2.3, when the crowd was trapped in a situation of extreme density, it did not have a chance to get an overview of the situation and possible ways to improve it, in particular to get out of the area."
"However, it took some time until the criticality of the situation was noticed and evacuation measures were taken. When the evacuation finally became effective, the ramp cleared quickly."
In dense crowd situations it takes external observation and direction for a crowd to safely disperse.
Hmm , still does not get away from the fact that if they were not acting like a herd of wildebeest and just rushing forward then it would not have happened. For sure once you are in the melee it is hard to do anything. I was involved in similar crowds, much bigger ones indeed, and it was scary indeed. I went down stairway 13 at Ibrox on day of the disaster , we heard the roar as the last minute goal was scored and people started to try to go back, we were at bottom and just left, only hearing about disaster later. At that time, in Scotland at least, most people were at best half cut as well. Had some scary ones at Hampden with over 100K crowds. Surprising it did not happen more often.
Comments
And worse still for Labour, ethnic minorities like Hindus and Jews, who may have voted Labour in the past are unlikely to vote Red on 5th May because of the divisive candidate.
Khan may have polished his crown and shoes but has now gone to ground, because he fears showing his face reminds people how the Labour party have been taken over the one religion, who are not kind to other religions. So, really, the value bet is Zac. I now have 2 people I really, really trust have told me: sub-35% turnout and Zac has a 50/50 chance. A 3rd person I trust a bit says the same. 1 Labour source, 1 Tory, 1 media. DYOR, but I say risk a few pennies on Zac.
Any other views out there?
Fixed it for you.
In response to today's Economists for Brexit report, one of their spokespeople has attempted to rubbish it by actually highlighting one of the ridiculous assumptions used in the Treasury report, i.e. that the UK post Brexit would impose large import tariffs on various goods. See the end of this link.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36150191
President Hollande and TSE
Gerry Adams and Richard Nabavi
Nigel Farage and Robert Smithson
Jeremy Corbyn and Scott P
Ian Botham and Sunil
Chewbacca and OGH
Marine Le Pen and MikeK
Ok not the last one .... she only likes the under 80's ....
As was suggested by others yesterday, one gets the feeling that as the Muslim demographic is more numerous than the Jewish demographic, and as they hate each other it's better to appeal to the larger group. Smart electoral politics but not a good look to the general public.
Guido has clearly been sitting on this for a while, and he probably has a number of follow ups on others to come. The timing is most likely designed to drag Sadiq Khan into the row before the London elections, Guido's being doing the drip-drip on him for months now.
Invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is a much, much more sensible idea.
UK plc will move on. Twas ever thus.
Although there's a disappointing lack of trebuchet-based justice policy.
Although if the Obama intervention is anything to go by, it might backfire massively.
At the two year point, unless both us and the EU wished to extend the period, we'd leave.
Have we enough for a saved deposit in any seats yet?
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
To be fair there have been a lot of improvements recently. For example a new scheme means customers can self exclude from all betting shops in one hit rather than on a company by company basis plus a lot more staff involvement looking out for problem gambling.
Online is a different kettle of fish unfortunately.
When LEAVE win it will be far better to have an amicable divorce than squabbling. For several years UK legislation will still be in effect European legislation - it is only when something turns up for the benefit of the UK that it will be changed. Which is why Vote Leave are saying we won't be leaving the EU in effect for some time.
Incidentally, I read 'Bowling Alone' - heavy going, but it does demonstrate the individualisation of US society with many graphs and stats.
Denny says 'she's really hot, in a dominatrix-preying mantis kind of way.'
When push comes to shove if Daves still there in 2020 he'll beat Corbyn.
So would May who's played a blinder so far.
Wouldn't fancy any if the others against anyone bar Jezza though.
There are two options for what he is saying. The first is tautologically pointless. No one is blaming invisible pixies for the people being crushed to death. No insight is gained from saying it was crowd members that crushed other crowd members. We know that. It is a vacuous, pseudo-intellectual statement at best.
The other option is that it is victim blaming because quite surely some of those who were crushed so hard that their rib cages collapsed were also pressing against other who had the same happen to them either before or after they died. And this happened whilst people only feet away had no idea it was occurring. In crush and pre-crush situations people can take locally optimal, even logical, decisions for themselves that are devastating for the crowd as a whole. Not one person in that crowd thought "I know, I'll push this person so hard they won't be able to breather"
The whole notion of "not pushing" is based on some utopian vision of crowds that involves never, ever making contact with anyone ever. And Campbell's notion that once it starts to get a bit leary that the best response would have been people outside the crush boundary pushing back against the inflow is so obviously fucking stupid that I am not even going to waste my time explaining how fucking stupid that is.
People are also completely ignoring that the reason why there was such a rush into the pens was because people were escaping the crush that had formed around the turnstiles and took the most direct obvious line of escape - into the already overcrowded pens. An hour before the match basic maths could tell you that it was going to be impossible to get all the fans through the turnstiles before kick off - the abject police failure to steward the supporters outside the ground created a dangerous crush situation that was only relieved by tipping over the pens into total disaster.
Look, here's the report on the Love Parade crowd disaster to get this clear of football fans.
http://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/articles/10.1140/epjds7
Here's the key lines
"As was pointed out in Sec. 2.3, when the crowd was trapped in a situation of extreme density, it did not have a chance to get an overview of the situation and possible ways to improve it, in particular to get out of the area."
"However, it took some time until the criticality of the situation was noticed and evacuation measures were taken. When the evacuation finally became effective, the ramp cleared quickly."
In dense crowd situations it takes external observation and direction for a crowd to safely disperse.
Expats lose referendum vote legal bid
Could this be the hinge of fate that lets Leave win the referendum.
For sure once you are in the melee it is hard to do anything. I was involved in similar crowds, much bigger ones indeed, and it was scary indeed. I went down stairway 13 at Ibrox on day of the disaster , we heard the roar as the last minute goal was scored and people started to try to go back, we were at bottom and just left, only hearing about disaster later. At that time, in Scotland at least, most people were at best half cut as well. Had some scary ones at Hampden with over 100K crowds. Surprising it did not happen more often.