The problem, for me, is that it needs forcing. Only in the face of the greatest of crises does the EU spring into something approaching action, and usually short term action at that, with near open contempt for suggestions of deviating from the preferred path. And greater democratic accountability appears to me to be a deviation from what the EU designers want, something they are forced into, but have no wish to do othewise - it is democratic enough, as they see it, so any more measures are insincere, or as you say, forced, and thus likely not worth the paper it will be written on.
Some of the key movers may even believe, currently, that certain issues have proven the need for changes, but when things quiet, they'll go back to assuming things will be fine.
Could you not, if you put on your tinfoil hat for a moment, say exactly the same about Westminster?
No, because for the faults of our system, it is superior to that of the EU, and far easier to convince people of the need for change and to achieve that change (which is not to say it is easy, but considerably more so than the EU).
There are, perhaps, comparable elements, but that doesn't mean the situations are genuinely equivalent.
And I'd have been content to be in an EU that was capable of accepting criticism and reform - I am far from convinced by the optimistic assumptions of many Leavers, hence being a Remainer for many years, but the when the chips are down we see the nature of the thing, and it is automatically resistant and dismissive, the words of hearing concerns hollow and plans to change as vestigial as can be managed.
But enough on the EU, Welsh Politics is where it's at now - PC doing well, or about in line with expectations?
I think Conservative eurosceptics intending to vote Remain are making a serious mistake.
I am a conservative eurosceptic and will vote remain and am not making a mistake. The mistake would be to have no place at the table as the EU goes into crisis over the next few years. However, I do respect your desire to leave and neither side is making a mistake if they are true to their beliefs, it is a matter of opinion
The mihuge.
I believe that the EU will be forced into more democracy
The problem, for me, is that it needs forcing. Only in the face of the greatest of crises does the EU spring into something approaching action, and usually short term action at that, with near open contempt for suggestions of deviating from the preferred path. And greater democratic accountability appears to me to be a deviation from what the EU designers want, something they are forced into, but have no wish to do othewise - it is democratic enough, as they see it, so any more measures are insincere, or as you say, forced, and thus likely not worth the paper it will be written on.
Some of the key movers may even believe, currently, that certain issues have proven the need for changes, but when things quiet, they'll go back to assuming things will be fine.
I do not think things will go quiet. The genie is out of the bottle, the eurosceptic movement throughout Europe is on the march and will not be satisfied with the status quo. Change will be forced on the eurocrats and we should be there to help deliver democracy
Regrettably my optimism about their ability to meet that challenge, even in the face of seeming inevitability, died in the past few years. Even when it seems there is no other option for survival, sometimes people contrive to make another choice, and with their love of fudged half measures and can kicking, my personal view is the EU will always opt for the latter. I respect that you still retain some optimism in that regard.
Hi all. Keiran here. Hope you all enjoy the show. Lot's going on. Just to let you know there is some minor sound interference towards the end of the interview with Roger Scully. Stay with it because it doesn't continue for the rest of the episode. Perils of Skype I think.
Keiran Pedley is a Spurs loyalist and a bit sensitive.
Mike is being kind. I am extremely delicate right now
I'm a Liverpool fan, and I've still not recovered from Steven Gerrard's slip, which some of my friends have delighted in telling me was exactly two years ago today.
If only. My money is on 4th and Thursday night football after City win the CL and Liverpool win the UEFA. I am currently deciding how much to put on this as it is written in stone.
If only. My money is on 4th and Thursday night football after City win the CL and Liverpool win the UEFA. I am currently deciding how much to put on this as it is written in stone.
Is it still the top four which goes through to UEFA? (Or was it only ever the top 3)
I think Conservative eurosceptics intending to vote Remain are making a serious mistake.
I am a conservative eurosceptic and will vote remain and am not making a mistake. The mistake would be to have no place at the table as the EU goes into crisis over the next few years. However, I do respect your desire to leave and neither side is making a mistake if they are true to their beliefs, it is a matter of opinion
The mihuge.
I believe that the EU will be forced into more democracy
The problem, for me, is that it needs forcing. Only in the face of the greatest of crises does the EU spring into something approaching action, and usually short term action at that, with near open contempt for suggestions of deviating from the preferred path. And greater democratic accountability appears to me to be a deviation from what the EU designers want, something they are forced into, but have no wish to do othewise - it is democratic enough, as they see it, so any more measures are insincere, or as you say, forced, and thus likely not worth the paper it will be written on.
Some of the key movers may even believe, currently, that certain issues have proven the need for changes, but when things quiet, they'll go back to assuming things will be fine.
I do not think things will go quiet. The genie is out of the bottle, the eurosceptic movement throughout Europe is on the march and will not be satisfied with the status quo. Change will be forced on the eurocrats and we should be there to help deliver democracy
Regrettably my optimism about their ability to meet that challenge, even in the face of seeming inevitability, died in the past few years. Even when it seems there is no other option for survival, sometimes people contrive to make another choice, and with their love of fudged half measures and can kicking, my personal view is the EU will always opt for the latter. I respect that you still retain some optimism in that regard.
As you go through life the one thing you learn is that life is full of change. If you swim against it you fail, if you meekly accept change you will just jog along, but if you lead change you will succeed. I believe that we can lead change within the EU but I equally respect the view that you can also lead change outside the EU
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
If only. My money is on 4th and Thursday night football after City win the CL and Liverpool win the UEFA. I am currently deciding how much to put on this as it is written in stone.
As a fellow Spurs fan ,I assume you realise this could only happen if Utd finish third which would require them to win all of their remaining games and Spurs to fail to pick up two points?
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
So much for those 'somehow Shah emerging with most dignity from this as she recognises reality of situation' ideas. Unless evidence to the contrary (that she is attempting to fall further on her sword to spare embarrassment to others), and taking her at her word, it's all on her.
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
I reckon Shah has been squeezed into making this fake confession, because the original story - Seamus Milne edited away the anti-Semitism - was so utterly damaging.
And whatever the truth, there is also clearly a conspiracy going on at Labour HQ, to undermine Corbyn, Milne & Co.
Since Labour rehired Damian McBride, I've felt Corbyn and Labour have been a lot more sharper and polished on the PR.
I'm not sure what to believe, all I will say is, either way, the optics are horrible for Labour, especially when you add in Ken Livingstone's comments.
Nice cover @SeanT. Wonder if anything will be lost in translation.
It is a very nice cover, isn't it? Possibly the most elegant I've ever had, for any book.
It is also, in its very small way, an interesting pointer to the changing nature of China. I've had books translated into Chinese before, and the jackets were always a bit naff and cheap, as you expect in poorer or developing nations.
Now suddenly this. A beautiful cover, aimed at a discerning, educated and very large middle class. China is becoming bourgeois. In time it will be haute bourgeois.
I reckon Chinese movies, novels, design and art will soon have a very serious impact in the West.
Not wanting to be fawning over our new Chinese overlords, but we should (unless we are doing so already) be teaching kids Mandarin. Maybe not compulsory, but at least try and promote it.
Well, he'll have his parliamentary seat to comfort him as Khan stomps him into mulch.
The Tooting by election will be fun.
We can hope. Looking at the wikipedia page, at times the Tories get close but never quite manage to get over the line. My totally uninformed gut says now is not the time they'll break that trend.
Well, he'll have his parliamentary seat to comfort him as Khan stomps him into mulch.
The Tooting by election will be fun.
We can hope. Looking at the wikipedia page, at times the Tories get close but never quite manage to get over the line. My totally uninformed gut says now is not the time they'll break that trend.
Iff, iff Labour's candidate is Ken Livingstone then I won't rule out a Tory gain, otherwise I foresee a Labour hold.
As you go through life the one thing you learn is that life is full of change. If you swim against it you fail, if you meekly accept change you will just jog along, but if you lead change you will succeed. I believe that we can lead change within the EU but I equally respect the view that you can also lead change outside the EU
We cannot lead change - at least not in the way you seem to hope. As I said previously the EU has things it needs to do to survive. Those things are anathema to the UK apart from a tiny minority of Remain supporters. The rest of the Remain supporters are simply fooling themselves if they think the EU is gouing to change in our favour. It can't. To do so would destroy everything they have worked for and would fatally damage the whole institution.
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
I reckon Shah has been squeezed into making this fake confession, because the original story - Seamus Milne edited away the anti-Semitism - was so utterly damaging.
And whatever the truth, there is also clearly a conspiracy going on at Labour HQ, to undermine Corbyn, Milne & Co.
Since Labour rehired Damian McBride, I've felt Corbyn and Labour have been a lot more sharper and polished on the PR.
I'm not sure what to believe, all I will say is, either way, the optics are horrible for Labour.
Somebody leaked the original story to Buzzfeed - true or not - in a way that is most damaging to Corbyn and Milne. That someone has to be at Labour HQ. Look also at the quotes the Telegraph got, from "Labour insiders". The Labour right is trying to use this anti-Semite thing to get rid of Jezza.
Yes - and pretty blatantly too, if as Shah insists the story was untrue. If they have more in the way of proof I'd suggest they play the hand now. The story was potentially very damaging when suggested the leader's office edited it, it would be far worse if not only did they do that, they got the disgraced MP to lie to cover their arses.
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
I reckon Shah has been squeezed into making this fake confession, because the original story - Seamus Milne edited away the anti-Semitism - was so utterly damaging.
And whatever the truth, there is also clearly a conspiracy going on at Labour HQ, to undermine Corbyn, Milne & Co.
Since Labour rehired Damian McBride, I've felt Corbyn and Labour have been a lot more sharper and polished on the PR.
I'm not sure what to believe, all I will say is, either way, the optics are horrible for Labour.
Somebody leaked the original story to Buzzfeed - true or not - in a way that is most damaging to Corbyn and Milne. That someone has to be at Labour HQ. Look also at the quotes the Telegraph got, from "Labour insiders". The Labour right is trying to use this anti-Semite thing to get rid of Jezza.
That's what I'm thinking, my piece on Sunday is speculating next week might be Labour's only chance of ditching Corbyn this parliament.
Well, he'll have his parliamentary seat to comfort him as Khan stomps him into mulch.
The Tooting by election will be fun.
We can hope. Looking at the wikipedia page, at times the Tories get close but never quite manage to get over the line. My totally uninformed gut says now is not the time they'll break that trend.
Iff, iff Labour's candidate is Ken Livingstone then I won't rule out a Tory gain, otherwise I foresee a Labour hold.
Oh right, the possibility of Ken, I had forgotten, Surely they've parked that idea, I mean they seem to have stopped sending him and Abbott out to drop Corbyn in more trouble with their remarks since the new year.
Just a thought - the UK imports from the EU is about £350 billion. A 5% tariff would result in an extra income for the Government of £17.5 billion.
That's a lot of hospitals, a lot of healthcare available for the weakest members of our society.
And all you have to do is vote BREXIT - is that too hard?
Don't give up your day job, dumbo !
As Mrs Thatcher said - when they attack you, you know they can't attack your policies.
This is not a comment on your suggestion, on which I certainly do not feel able to comment upon, but as sayings go, that's sounds obviously wrong to me - people often do both, because they feel they can make a policy and the person who proposed it look terrible. It reads like a method for deflecting attacks by suggesting they are only about the individual, about style in essence, when they might be both on style and substance. Attacks on Corbyn would be a prime example I feel, as opponents attack him personally, but still seem very able to attack his policies.
As you go through life the one thing you learn is that life is full of change. If you swim against it you fail, if you meekly accept change you will just jog along, but if you lead change you will succeed. I believe that we can lead change within the EU but I equally respect the view that you can also lead change outside the EU
We cannot lead change - at least not in the way you seem to hope. As I said previously the EU has things it needs to do to survive. Those things are anathema to the UK apart from a tiny minority of Remain supporters. The rest of the Remain supporters are simply fooling themselves if they think the EU is gouing to change in our favour. It can't. To do so would destroy everything they have worked for and would fatally damage the whole institution.
And your last sentence is one I could foresee happening
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we have the first EU YouGov poll for The Times for a (busy) fortnight, which included Obama visit, Treasury analysis & Corbyn speech
Well, he'll have his parliamentary seat to comfort him as Khan stomps him into mulch.
The Tooting by election will be fun.
We can hope. Looking at the wikipedia page, at times the Tories get close but never quite manage to get over the line. My totally uninformed gut says now is not the time they'll break that trend.
Iff, iff Labour's candidate is Ken Livingstone then I won't rule out a Tory gain, otherwise I foresee a Labour hold.
Oh right, the possibility of Ken, I had forgotten, Surely they've parked that idea, I mean they seem to have stopped sending him and Abbott out to drop Corbyn in more trouble with their remarks since the new year.
I know Wandsworth Conservatives are an impressive bunch, and it's an area that UKIP haven't done well in, so that should help the Tories.
But governments seldom gain seats from their opponents at by elections, except in rare circumstances.
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
I reckon Shah has been squeezed into making this fake confession, because the original story - Seamus Milne edited away the anti-Semitism - was so utterly damaging.
And whatever the truth, there is also clearly a conspiracy going on at Labour HQ, to undermine Corbyn, Milne & Co.
Since Labour rehired Damian McBride, I've felt Corbyn and Labour have been a lot more sharper and polished on the PR.
I'm not sure what to believe, all I will say is, either way, the optics are horrible for Labour.
Somebody leaked the original story to Buzzfeed - true or not - in a way that is most damaging to Corbyn and Milne. That someone has to be at Labour HQ. Look also at the quotes the Telegraph got, from "Labour insiders". The Labour right is trying to use this anti-Semite thing to get rid of Jezza.
If only. My money is on 4th and Thursday night football after City win the CL and Liverpool win the UEFA. I am currently deciding how much to put on this as it is written in stone.
Is it still the top four which goes through to UEFA? (Or was it only ever the top 3)
If Man City win the Champs League but finish fifth, and Liverpool win the Europa League, the fourth team in the Premiership drops down to the Europa League group stage - top 3+City+Liverpool in the CL play-off spot makes up the maximum 5 teams an association is permitted in the Champs League.
@Jake_Wilde: Of course. It's completely logical that Shah decided her original draft was far *too* apologetic & row back from it. https://t.co/P8Wjuq5MYN
Just a thought - the UK imports from the EU is about £350 billion. A 5% tariff would result in an extra income for the Government of £17.5 billion.
Would that it were so simple. If you impose tariffs on imports coming in[1] then the total price of imports rises and (broadly speaking[2]) the number of imports purchased goes down. This means the requirement goes unfilled[3] and you don't get the benefit of the imports, whether as consumption or as components. So the amount of money coming in to the Government stays the same...or in fact goes down, because the unfilled requirements reduces local growth and so the tax revenue to the Government reduces in turn
If you don't believe me, try this thought experiment. Imaging a tariff of 10,000%. Do you think this would result in the Government getting trillions in extra revenue, or people just not buying the new humungeously expensive imports?
If you'll forgive me, there is no economic argument for leaving the EU: every advantage you gain is offset by a greater disadvantage somewhere else - it's like packing a duvet in a matchbox. If LEAVE is to win legitimately (and it's a big if), it'll be by concentrating on immigration or sovereignity, two areas where REMAIN are weak.
NOTES [1] As opposed to imports going out... [2] This bit depends on all other things being equal and the elasticity of demand, but let's assume stability for the moment otherwise I get a headache and start drawing graphs... [3] At least until the local production works out how to make the import for the same price...which is unlikely because if you could do that you wouldn't be importing in the first place
A major donor to the Labour Party has withdraw his support amid the escalating anti-Semitism scandal surrounding the Labour Party.
David Abrahams, who has donated more around £650,000 since the turn of the century, told the Jewish News he didn’t believe the party leadership was doing enough to tackle hate, following a series of suspensions of members and councillors over the past month.
Just a thought - the UK imports from the EU is about £350 billion. A 5% tariff would result in an extra income for the Government of £17.5 billion.
That's a lot of hospitals, a lot of healthcare available for the weakest members of our society.
And all you have to do is vote BREXIT - is that too hard?
Don't give up your day job, dumbo !
Please refute or accept. NB - I don't stoop to calling Names - As Mrs Thatcher said - when they attack you, you know they can't attack your policies.
To address the revenue question, it depends on the price elasticity of demand. All things being equal, the more expensive something is the lower the demand. It could be that the increase in price reduces demand so as to make the exercise revenue-neutral or even negative.
Plus there are issues with tariffs, market distortion and competitiveness but you seemed to be focusing on revenue.
If only. My money is on 4th and Thursday night football after City win the CL and Liverpool win the UEFA. I am currently deciding how much to put on this as it is written in stone.
Is it still the top four which goes through to UEFA? (Or was it only ever the top 3)
If Man City win the Champs League but finish fifth, and Liverpool win the Europa League, the fourth team in the Premiership drops down to the Europa League group stage - top 3+City+Liverpool in the CL play-off spot makes up the maximum 5 teams an association is permitted in the Champs League.
Yes this is the point .The scenario in which Spurs get demoted from a champions league spot despite finishing in 4th place only plays out if City finish 5th and Utd finish third.
The only conclusion from the last batch of polls, is that contrary to the hallucinations of Meeks & Nabavi, the REMAIN camp has had a shit opening week, overplaying their hand and openly bullying the British people.
As some of us suggested.
Thank goodness Leave doesn't have its act together or they would have a 20pt advantage.
Sure, we got Obama all lined up, he's going to kill off a trade deal.
What about the economy?
Yes - everyone will lose around £2,000.
Not enough. Make it £4,000. No, say £4,300, seems more plausible.
Anything else?
Well there's terrorism. Always a good one. How about: stay in the EU or the population gets shot?
Hmm. Perhaps we need to work on that one.
Anyway, the plan is hot, we're good to go. Before long the polls will swing massively in our favour.
What can possibly go wrong?
No 10 Downing Street, Midnight April 27th 2016. Cameron and Osborne in the attic kitchen nursing whiskys.
Cameron: "Obama didn't work, did it" Osborne: "Nope. Convinced the metropols, but they were onside already. It just pissed off the undecideds. We were ahead, but now..no" Cameron: "Any good news?" Osborne: "The Times is gradually coming onside as the rest of it catches up with the business pages. The Sun is lost, but the battle is becoming clear: immigration vs economics. We stick to the knitting, we can still win." Cameron "Slow and grinding...well, we've done it before" Osborne "Yup" (stares into the night) Cameron "Damn, we're getting old for this" Osborne "Speak for yourself, sir: I plan on living forever" (big grin)
Can we have another MEEKS editorial, explaining how LEAVE have been left reeling after all those blows to the "solar plexus" from REMAIN's amazing opening week.
Then maybe some commentary from NABAVI about how REMAIN are dancing away with this, with a near perfect use of blah blah fucking blah
CHORTLE
Its not impossible that Alistair Meeks "solar plexus" might one day rival Sion Simons "we princes" article.
Can we have another MEEKS editorial, explaining how LEAVE have been left reeling after all those blows to the "solar plexus" from REMAIN's amazing opening week.
Then maybe some commentary from NABAVI about how REMAIN are dancing away with this, with a near perfect use of blah blah fucking blah
CHORTLE
They are a bit like the know-alls who for the last few months have been saying Leicester can't really win the Premiership, that the cold harsh reality of the moneybags clubs having overwhelmingly superior squads would end Leicester's run sooner or later. It hasn't unfolded the way the "experts" predicted. Sometimes the outsider does win.
Just a thought - the UK imports from the EU is about £350 billion. A 5% tariff would result in an extra income for the Government of £17.5 billion.
Would that it were so simple. If you impose tariffs on imports coming in[1] then the total price of imports rises and (broadly speaking[2]) the number of imports purchased goes down. This means the requirement goes unfilled[3] and you don't get the benefit of the imports, whether as consumption or as components. So the amount of money coming in to the Government stays the same...or in fact goes down, because the unfilled requirements reduces local growth and so the tax revenue to the Government reduces in turn
If you don't believe me, try this thought experiment. Imaging a tariff of 10,000%. Do you think this would result in the Government getting trillions in extra revenue, or people just not buying the new humungeously expensive imports?
If you'll forgive me, there is no economic argument for leaving the EU: every advantage you gain is offset by a greater disadvantage somewhere else - it's like packing a duvet in a matchbox. If LEAVE is to win legitimately (and it's a big if), it'll be by concentrating on immigration or sovereignity, two areas where REMAIN are weak.
NOTES [1] As opposed to imports going out... [2] This bit depends on all other things being equal and the elasticity of demand, but let's assume stability for the moment otherwise I get a headache and start drawing graphs... [3] At least until the local production works out how to make the import for the same price...which is unlikely because if you could do that you wouldn't be importing in the first place
Why would a post Brexit UK impose begger thy neighbour trade sanctions on the rump EU?
If the headline figures are for Leave, imagine what happens when the numbers are properly adjusted for propensity to vote. Remainers don't want the EU, they just don't fancy much change. Not a massive motivation to get off their arses and get out to the polling booth. For leavers this vote is a once in a lifetime event.
Just a thought - the UK imports from the EU is about £350 billion. A 5% tariff would result in an extra income for the Government of £17.5 billion.
Would that it were so simple. If you impose tariffs on imports coming in[1] then the total price of imports rises and (broadly speaking[2]) the number of imports purchased goes down. This means the requirement goes unfilled[3] and you don't get the benefit of the imports, whether as consumption or as components. So the amount of money coming in to the Government stays the same...or in fact goes down, because the unfilled requirements reduces local growth and so the tax revenue to the Government reduces in turn
If you don't believe me, try this thought experiment. Imaging a tariff of 10,000%. Do you think this would result in the Government getting trillions in extra revenue, or people just not buying the new humungeously expensive imports?
If you'll forgive me, there is no economic argument for leaving the EU: every advantage you gain is offset by a greater disadvantage somewhere else - it's like packing a duvet in a matchbox. If LEAVE is to win legitimately (and it's a big if), it'll be by concentrating on immigration or sovereignity, two areas where REMAIN are weak.
NOTES [1] As opposed to imports going out... [2] This bit depends on all other things being equal and the elasticity of demand, but let's assume stability for the moment otherwise I get a headache and start drawing graphs... [3] At least until the local production works out how to make the import for the same price...which is unlikely because if you could do that you wouldn't be importing in the first place
Why would a post Brexit UK impose begger thy neighbour trade sanctions on the rump EU?
I was answering the question I was asked. If you don't like the question, I can only direct you ton the original questioner.
As you go through life the one thing you learn is that life is full of change. If you swim against it you fail, if you meekly accept change you will just jog along, but if you lead change you will succeed. I believe that we can lead change within the EU but I equally respect the view that you can also lead change outside the EU
We cannot lead change - at least not in the way you seem to hope. As I said previously the EU has things it needs to do to survive. Those things are anathema to the UK apart from a tiny minority of Remain supporters. The rest of the Remain supporters are simply fooling themselves if they think the EU is gouing to change in our favour. It can't. To do so would destroy everything they have worked for and would fatally damage the whole institution.
And your last sentence is one I could foresee happening
Which would be disastrous for everyone. I don't want to sit next to a failed increasingly desperate and protectionist bloc. If the countries of the EU want to unify, whilst I might think that in the long run its a bad idea, they should be able to do so without us screwing it up for them. An orderly departure of ourselves and perhaps a couple of the other more sceptical countries would allow the remainder to go ahead with the project and safeguard the advances they have already made. For the good of our European friends the best thing we can do is leave.
The only conclusion from the last batch of polls, is that contrary to the hallucinations of Meeks & Nabavi, the REMAIN camp has had a shit opening week, overplaying their hand and openly bullying the British people.
As some of us suggested.
Some of us predicted a small move to Leave, yes, explained exactly why it was likely to happen, and why it was a good opportunity to bet on the Remain 60% to 65% band.
Can we have another MEEKS editorial, explaining how LEAVE have been left reeling after all those blows to the "solar plexus" from REMAIN's amazing opening week.
Then maybe some commentary from NABAVI about how REMAIN are dancing away with this, with a near perfect use of blah blah fucking blah
CHORTLE
Meeks might, with hindsight, have been rather meeker .... ha, ha.
A lot of talk about "don't knows" breaking for Remain.
On the day they may well do, but this graph shows a steady decline in their numbers since July last year, and a corresponding increase in the Leave share, together with a small decline in the Remain vote:
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
There are, perhaps, comparable elements, but that doesn't mean the situations are genuinely equivalent.
And I'd have been content to be in an EU that was capable of accepting criticism and reform - I am far from convinced by the optimistic assumptions of many Leavers, hence being a Remainer for many years, but the when the chips are down we see the nature of the thing, and it is automatically resistant and dismissive, the words of hearing concerns hollow and plans to change as vestigial as can be managed.
But enough on the EU, Welsh Politics is where it's at now - PC doing well, or about in line with expectations?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3561255/Taliban-suicide-bomber-accidentally-triggers-explosives-early-killing-eight-martyrs-base.html
Great work with the show!
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/725423087152451585
Goldsmith 6%
Khan 93%
Naz Shah’s Apology Was Not Edited By Labour Officials
CORRECTION: The original version of this story was based on a draft of an apology under consideration by Naz Shah’s office. However, she says this was not the final version sent to the Labour leader’s office for approval. BuzzFeed News accepts that nobody in Jeremy Corbyn’s office or Labour HQ saw or edited the draft referred to in our original story.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/labour-hq-deleted-references-to-anti-semitism-from-naz-shahs?utm_term=.wh5mpRerqr
would require them to win all of their remaining games and Spurs to fail to pick up two points?
What's not to like....?
* presuming council elections are not as horrific for Labour as some say they could well be.
http://abcnews.go.com/live
http://abcnews.go.com/US/dennis-hasterts-sexual-abuse-victim-describes-darkest-secret/story?id=38710215
1) AV
2) A Lord of the Rings themed thread
I suspect this might be a bad week to write threads in advance.
That's a lot of hospitals, a lot of healthcare available for the weakest members of our society.
And all you have to do is vote BREXIT - is that too hard?
So the weakest members of society might be forced to contribute more, as you know the companies won't absorb the cost of the tariff.
#NotAnAnEconomistSoIMightBeTalkingBollards
I'm not sure what to believe, all I will say is, either way, the optics are horrible for Labour, especially when you add in Ken Livingstone's comments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooting_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If nothing emerges I'll believe Shah's take.
Or were you being sarcastic - it's sometimes hard to tell?
But governments seldom gain seats from their opponents at by elections, except in rare circumstances.
Only other realistic gain I could see is Barrow.
How will scousers vote in the referendum? I can't imagine that they are very establishment-friendly.
Remain: 41 (+1)
Leave: 42 (+3)
WNV: 4 (-1)
DK: 13 (-3)
(Comparison with Apr 12-14)
Location: A secret meeting room
Time: A few weeks ago
Characters: [censored]
So, my fellow Remainians, is the plan ready?
Sure, we got Obama all lined up, he's going to kill off a trade deal.
What about the economy?
Yes - everyone will lose around £2,000.
Not enough. Make it £4,000. No, say £4,300, seems more plausible.
Anything else?
Well there's terrorism. Always a good one. How about: stay in the EU or the population gets shot?
Hmm. Perhaps we need to work on that one.
Anyway, the plan is hot, we're good to go. Before long the polls will swing massively in our favour.
What can possibly go wrong?
If you don't believe me, try this thought experiment. Imaging a tariff of 10,000%. Do you think this would result in the Government getting trillions in extra revenue, or people just not buying the new humungeously expensive imports?
If you still don't believe me, try this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
If you'll forgive me, there is no economic argument for leaving the EU: every advantage you gain is offset by a greater disadvantage somewhere else - it's like packing a duvet in a matchbox. If LEAVE is to win legitimately (and it's a big if), it'll be by concentrating on immigration or sovereignity, two areas where REMAIN are weak.
NOTES
[1] As opposed to imports going out...
[2] This bit depends on all other things being equal and the elasticity of demand, but let's assume stability for the moment otherwise I get a headache and start drawing graphs...
[3] At least until the local production works out how to make the import for the same price...which is unlikely because if you could do that you wouldn't be importing in the first place
I feel like I've been in hibernation and missed how Khan went from a 50/50 shot to such an overwhelming favourite.
Remain: 49 -2
Leave: 51 +2
(Comparison with Apr 12-14)
Remain: 49 -2
Leave: 51 +2
(Comparison with Apr 12-14)
David Abrahams, who has donated more around £650,000 since the turn of the century, told the Jewish News he didn’t believe the party leadership was doing enough to tackle hate, following a series of suspensions of members and councillors over the past month.
http://www.jewishnews.co.uk/major-labour-donor-quits-amid-anti-semitism-scandal/
Plus there are issues with tariffs, market distortion and competitiveness but you seemed to be focusing on revenue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NjTE2vpMA8
...sound familiar?
Basil....squirrel
Cameron: "Obama didn't work, did it"
Osborne: "Nope. Convinced the metropols, but they were onside already. It just pissed off the undecideds. We were ahead, but now..no"
Cameron: "Any good news?"
Osborne: "The Times is gradually coming onside as the rest of it catches up with the business pages. The Sun is lost, but the battle is becoming clear: immigration vs economics. We stick to the knitting, we can still win."
Cameron "Slow and grinding...well, we've done it before"
Osborne "Yup" (stares into the night)
Cameron "Damn, we're getting old for this"
Osborne "Speak for yourself, sir: I plan on living forever" (big grin)
The two stride out of the room...
http://survation.com/56-days-eu-referendum-remain-maintains-lead-gap-leave-narrows/
Join the people, and Vote Leave!
On the day they may well do, but this graph shows a steady decline in their numbers since July last year, and a corresponding increase in the Leave share, together with a small decline in the Remain vote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
It's a longshot, but this is STILL possible.