Just run the Holyrood numbers through ScotlandVotes, which suggests
SNP 71 Con 23 Lab 20 Grn 9 LD 6
It'd be the constituency figure keeping them in a majority - hardly any top-ups.
I know it's not easy to work out, but if their constituency vote fell, would they benefit from more top up MSPs?
Unlikely - 6 of the 9 most marginal seat outcomes are forecast to be won by the SNP, and they are closest runner-up for a list seat in only one region.
5,000 less constituency votes in the vulnerable areas could cost them 5 seats and their majority.
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
Danny Cohen's outburst wasn't widely reported despite being rather remarkable. A long time Labourite, former senior BBC bod, well connected across the media, and somebody who doesn't comments on this stuff, and he basically said they have a huge problem.
When will Liverpool ever accept the fact that it was Liverpool fans who crushed other Liverpool fans to death...no one else
Not once in the coverage of the past 48 hours have I seen any reference to the trauma the Forest fans suffered that day. The Forest fans who managed to get into Hillsborough in a calm, sensible way that the Liverpool fans somehow didn't...
FFS. Maybe because 10,000 fans weren't funneled through 7 turnstiles in a completely incompetent manner?
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
I think the equation that Labour have made is that there are 400,000 Jews eligible to vote in Britain and about 2.5m Muslims, the former group is shrinking and the latter is the fastest growing demographic in Britain.
I think they figure that even if they lose some votes they get more out of motivating Muslims to vote for them.
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
Yes, it would be easy to take the cynical view that there are more Muslims than Jews in UK and that the Jews don't vote labour anyway.
True or not, unless Corbyn sacks her he'll go down in my estimation.
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
I think the equation that Labour have made is that there are 400,000 Jews eligible to vote in Britain and about 2.5m Muslims, the former group is shrinking and the latter is the fastest growing demographic in Britain.
I think they figure that even if they lose some votes they get more out of motivating Muslims to vote for them.
I have read the muslim community is a canvasser's dream. They just give the postals over to a 'community leader' and wait for the votes to pile in.
To be true science, you need to be able to use it to predict. In 1919, Arthur Eddington sailed to the tropics to observe an solar eclipse? Why? To test a prediction of Einstein's on gravitational lensing. He showed it to be correct. Thus the General Theory of Relativity received a boost. Gravitational waves as predicted took longer, but have been found.
And as the great man said himself ... "No amount of experimentation can prove me right. A single experiment can prove me wrong."
AGW cannot be proved right by experiment .. or wrong at the moment. The aim of science is to test, not to look for excuses.
Now AGW may be correct, but if you cannot predict, it's not science let alone settled science, If I ask "What will be the average temperature of London in 2020?" the correct answer is "I don't know, there are too many confounding factors ... El Nino, solar flares etc." I will answer you, as has been said earlier ... "then it's not science yet."
It may very well be true, but it may be wishful thinking.
As a former physicist myself, I'm fully aware of how science works.
AGW, like any scientific theory, cannot be *proved* to be correct, although it could be disproved if, for example, the sea levels were to stop rising for a significant length of time. However, AGW is currently by far the best explanation we have for the recent changes in the Earth's climate, and the predictions of warming made back in the early 1980s have materialised almost exactly as forecast.
No they haven't. Neither the scale nor the speed of temperature or sea level rise gas matched the AGW predictions. What they have matched is the predicted natural rises.
As a former physicist you might like to go and read some of Feynman's comments on the proper pursuit of science before making such claims.
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
I think the equation that Labour have made is that there are 400,000 Jews eligible to vote in Britain and about 2.5m Muslims, the former group is shrinking and the latter is the fastest growing demographic in Britain.
I think they figure that even if they lose some votes they get more out of motivating Muslims to vote for them.
I wouldn't say "Labour" as a whole. Many Labour activists have nothing but contempt for anti-Semitism.
But, I think some members of the Party have made that calculation.
When will Liverpool ever accept the fact that it was Liverpool fans who crushed other Liverpool fans to death...no one else
Not once in the coverage of the past 48 hours have I seen any reference to the trauma the Forest fans suffered that day. The Forest fans who managed to get into Hillsborough in a calm, sensible way that the Liverpool fans somehow didn't...
FFS. Maybe because 10,000 fans weren't funneled through 7 turnstiles in a completely incompetent manner?
Anyone who was a regular football goer in those days knows how disorderly and feral the whole experience often was.
I attended one particular game in West London where the same could have happened, but fortunately there were no fences.
It was just a cocktail of contributory factors, each playing their part in a terrible accident, in my view.
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
You obviously have not been to Stamford Bridge or Upton Park!
Completely agree with you, though. Like me, many of my left-leaning Jewish friends are in utter despair at the way Labour is moving. They cannot vote for such a party, so will go elsewhere. And it will take a hell of a lot to win them back.
When will Liverpool ever accept the fact that it was Liverpool fans who crushed other Liverpool fans to death...no one else
Not once in the coverage of the past 48 hours have I seen any reference to the trauma the Forest fans suffered that day. The Forest fans who managed to get into Hillsborough in a calm, sensible way that the Liverpool fans somehow didn't...
FFS. Maybe because 10,000 fans weren't funneled through 7 turnstiles in a completely incompetent manner?
Anyone who was a regular football goer in those days knows how disorderly and feral the whole experience often was.
I attended one particular game in West London where the same could have happened, but fortunately there were no fences.
It was just a cocktail of contributory factors, each playing their part in a terrible accident, in my view.
As ever with these things, the cover ups and smears were worse than the deeds themselves.
This is why she should have resigned. By supporting her Corbyn has blown it up into something much bigger.
A Labour MP is going to address the Commons and personally apologise for being an anti-Semite.
I mean, how much worse can it get? Can't they see how damaging it is?
Damaging from who's point of view though? From a point of view which gets 10-15% of their total votes from Muslims, probably not. There is going to be a lot more handwringing and acceptance of disturbing views by Labour in the coming years as they become more dependent on inner cities. Ask surbiton of this parish, Muslim vote harvesting is a Labour policy, he has said as much time and again.
Damaging to Labour in two ways: it angers the Jewish community, deeply, and they are articulate and often influential. Look at ex-BBC head Danny Cohen's remarks on Labour, the other day. In future, Labour will get a much more sceptical reaction from Jewish journalists, academics, businessmen.
Also it alienates the white working class vote, even further, as Labour is perceived to pander to the Islamic vote to such an extent it openly tolerates racism.
Anti-Semitism is virtually non-existent in WWC Britain.
I think the equation that Labour have made is that there are 400,000 Jews eligible to vote in Britain and about 2.5m Muslims, the former group is shrinking and the latter is the fastest growing demographic in Britain.
I think they figure that even if they lose some votes they get more out of motivating Muslims to vote for them.
I have read the muslim community is a canvasser's dream. They just give the postals over to a 'community leader' and wait for the votes to pile in.
Yes, I've heard that as well. Labour work with "community organisers" who collect signed postal votes and then fill them out and send them off.
In fact, looking at some of the Cutbot figures they don't make any sense to me - Labour shedding 5000 votes in seats with vastly less than 5000 votes going to other parties. They are basically predicting turnout to be way down on 2011 which isn't going to happen.
Just run the Holyrood numbers through ScotlandVotes, which suggests
SNP 71 Con 23 Lab 20 Grn 9 LD 6
It'd be the constituency figure keeping them in a majority - hardly any top-ups.
I know it's not easy to work out, but if their constituency vote fell, would they benefit from more top up MSPs?
Unlikely - 6 of the 9 most marginal seat outcomes are forecast to be won by the SNP, and they are closest runner-up for a list seat in only one region.
5,000 less constituency votes in the vulnerable areas could cost them 5 seats and their majority.
PS - I should have said courtesy of Cutbot's predictor site!
To be true science, you need to be able to use it to predict. In 1919, Arthur Eddington sailed to the tropics to observe an solar eclipse? Why? To test a prediction of Einstein's on gravitational lensing. He showed it to be correct. Thus the General Theory of Relativity received a boost. Gravitational waves as predicted took longer, but have been found.
And as the great man said himself ... "No amount of experimentation can prove me right. A single experiment can prove me wrong."
AGW cannot be proved right by experiment .. or wrong at the moment. The aim of science is to test, not to look for excuses.
Now AGW may be correct, but if you cannot predict, it's not science let alone settled science, If I ask "What will be the average temperature of London in 2020?" the correct answer is "I don't know, there are too many confounding factors ... El Nino, solar flares etc." I will answer you, as has been said earlier ... "then it's not science yet."
It may very well be true, but it may be wishful thinking.
As a former physicist myself, I'm fully aware of how science works.
AGW, like any scientific theory, cannot be *proved* to be correct, although it could be disproved if, for example, the sea levels were to stop rising for a significant length of time. However, AGW is currently by far the best explanation we have for the recent changes in the Earth's climate, and the predictions of warming made back in the early 1980s have materialised almost exactly as forecast.
No they haven't. Neither the scale nor the speed of temperature or sea level rise gas matched the AGW predictions. What they have matched is the predicted natural rises.
As a former physicist you might like to go and read some of Feynman's comments on the proper pursuit of science before making such claims.
You're wrong there. With no human contribution, we'd expect the climate to be gradually cooling as the Earth nears the end of its current interglacial period. It is virtually impossible to explain the rapid warming we now observe without taking AGW into account.
It was back in 1981 that James Hansen, former head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, predicted that AGW would result not only in the temperature increase we have seen since then, but also its concentration at the poles. By the late 80s, climate change started to be taken seriously by the world's politicians (notably Mrs Thatcher), but then the denial propaganda machine got to work and scuppered our chances of seriously addressing the problem.
I don't see anything in climate science that Feynman would have had much of an issue with; perhaps you have misunderstood his comments.
Never mind the Tory score, look at the SNP list one. 53% in the constituencies (vs just 19 next) would still come close to a clean sweep but 45% would produce very few top-ups. Also, the Lib Dems on 7% might well qualify in most regions. On these figures, Sturgeon might find herself having to sign the Greens up.
Comments
Without regional breakdowns it is total finger in the air stuff.
5,000 less constituency votes in the vulnerable areas could cost them 5 seats and their majority.
The place where one drink will get you banned from driving...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-36149020
I think they figure that even if they lose some votes they get more out of motivating Muslims to vote for them.
True or not, unless Corbyn sacks her he'll go down in my estimation.
Didn't he also break the story on Khan's speech writer having the same issues.
I am presuming he has his minions collecting this dirt for ages now.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/725315904519688193
TSE
@TSEofPB
"Interesting movement of the undecideds when squeezed by @Survation"
I was with some people when I read this and couldn't stop laughing. Explaining what I was laughing at wasn't an option. Only on PB!
As a former physicist you might like to go and read some of Feynman's comments on the proper pursuit of science before making such claims.
Will they be having a gay Pride in Gaza, I wonder...??
But, I think some members of the Party have made that calculation.
I attended one particular game in West London where the same could have happened, but fortunately there were no fences.
It was just a cocktail of contributory factors, each playing their part in a terrible accident, in my view.
Completely agree with you, though. Like me, many of my left-leaning Jewish friends are in utter despair at the way Labour is moving. They cannot vote for such a party, so will go elsewhere. And it will take a hell of a lot to win them back.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
In fact, looking at some of the Cutbot figures they don't make any sense to me - Labour shedding 5000 votes in seats with vastly less than 5000 votes going to other parties. They are basically predicting turnout to be way down on 2011 which isn't going to happen.
It was back in 1981 that James Hansen, former head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, predicted that AGW would result not only in the temperature increase we have seen since then, but also its concentration at the poles. By the late 80s, climate change started to be taken seriously by the world's politicians (notably Mrs Thatcher), but then the denial propaganda machine got to work and scuppered our chances of seriously addressing the problem.
I don't see anything in climate science that Feynman would have had much of an issue with; perhaps you have misunderstood his comments.
Ha, ha, how high up do you float?