"I used to believe that bad news would boost the morale of ordinary citizens. So much misfortune and misery in the outside world would be reassuring. As long as we personally are not experiencing an earthquake, a pogrom or matrimonial violence, we are doing better than most. Evil gossip about the lives of others reflects well on our own dull selves. A celebrity fallen from grace restores balance to the world. Fate comes to every Icarus.
Now I am not so sure. I recently looked back at the files of old newspapers. While good news sometimes read as propaganda, there was far less of today’s relentless, 24/7 misery. The old journalistic rule of thumb, that bad news should be leavened with good, has died. Terrorism incidents are turned into week-long sagas of hysteria. This can only feed insecurity and risk-aversion."
When the recent drinking guidelines came out I actually checked the research- someone my age, drinking two bottles of wine a day increases their chance of early death by about 9% - which, were I want to do so struck me as a pretty reasonable trade off!
Two bottles of wine a day is quite a lot.
Indeed - no wonder the NHS struggles - and I always thought of Carlotta as a sober type!
Generally I am - the comment was not on my alcohol consumption, but on the government's arbitrarily low alcohol limits - given the modestly increased risk of early death from drinking titanic quantities of alcohol.....
"I used to believe that bad news would boost the morale of ordinary citizens. So much misfortune and misery in the outside world would be reassuring. As long as we personally are not experiencing an earthquake, a pogrom or matrimonial violence, we are doing better than most. Evil gossip about the lives of others reflects well on our own dull selves. A celebrity fallen from grace restores balance to the world. Fate comes to every Icarus.
Now I am not so sure. I recently looked back at the files of old newspapers. While good news sometimes read as propaganda, there was far less of today’s relentless, 24/7 misery. The old journalistic rule of thumb, that bad news should be leavened with good, has died. Terrorism incidents are turned into week-long sagas of hysteria. This can only feed insecurity and risk-aversion."
When the recent drinking guidelines came out I actually checked the research- someone my age, drinking two bottles of wine a day increases their chance of early death by about 9% - which, were I want to do so struck me as a pretty reasonable trade off!
Two bottles of wine a day is quite a lot.
Indeed - no wonder the NHS struggles - and I always thought of Carlotta as a sober type!
Generally I am - the comment was not on my alcohol consumption, but on the government's arbitrarily low alcohol limits - given the modestly increased risk of early death from drinking titanic quantities of alcohol.....
I see. Unfortunately in expat Spain I see too many Brits over imbibe that I tend to favour the draconian guidelines myself. Now the occasional joint I am more liberal about
Just to let everyone know, I'm just doing some server maintenance, so there may be a some downtime. Thanks, Robert
Well that was all very painless; lots of updates installed, and basically zero downtime.
Back to work.
Take note mossack fonseca...
Early on in my running politicalbetting, I twice got hacked; I was running out of date software, and didn't subscribe to the bugtraq mailing list. I'd done nothing to harden the site either.
(It's amazing; renaming 'curl' and 'wget', or simply disallowing them to non-root users hardens your installation quite considerably, as does a little playing with the firewall to prevent outgoing requests to anything except the official update sites).
I'm now pretty careful, and (touch wood), it's been nine or ten years since I had problems.
I would also note, that I'd never do anything as stupid as to run a webserver behind the firewall.
Still agreeing to disagree. I think it's in our interests to Remain.
You may or may not be right [spoiler - you're wrong], but we're talking about Cameron's priorities. The consistent pattern of behaviour indicates that despite his many statements to the contrary, he puts remaining in the EU above the interests of the UK.
Lol - depends on what you think are the interests of the UK. On which we disagree. Is it groundhog day or have I just had too much of this glorious Spanish (EU) sun?
Sun or subsidy, one or the other.
No-one pays for me - I pay all my taxes to UK and Spain and my health insurance here - although the latter is much cheaper and more comprehensive than anything in the UK.
"I used to believe that bad news would boost the morale of ordinary citizens. So much misfortune and misery in the outside world would be reassuring. As long as we personally are not experiencing an earthquake, a pogrom or matrimonial violence, we are doing better than most. Evil gossip about the lives of others reflects well on our own dull selves. A celebrity fallen from grace restores balance to the world. Fate comes to every Icarus.
Now I am not so sure. I recently looked back at the files of old newspapers. While good news sometimes read as propaganda, there was far less of today’s relentless, 24/7 misery. The old journalistic rule of thumb, that bad news should be leavened with good, has died. Terrorism incidents are turned into week-long sagas of hysteria. This can only feed insecurity and risk-aversion."
When the recent drinking guidelines came out I actually checked the research- someone my age, drinking two bottles of wine a day increases their chance of early death by about 9% - which, were I want to do so struck me as a pretty reasonable trade off!
Two bottles of wine a day is quite a lot.
Indeed - no wonder the NHS struggles - and I always thought of Carlotta as a sober type!
Generally I am - the comment was not on my alcohol consumption, but on the government's arbitrarily low alcohol limits - given the modestly increased risk of early death from drinking titanic quantities of alcohol.....
Two things to say on this. 9% is quite a high number when you consider you are talking about death! But perhaps more importantly, dying doesn't cost NHS a penny - the process of being ill, being treated, becoming ill again etc., is what costs. So something that causes diabetes like heavy drinking is going to cost the NHS.
Having said all that I think the new guidelines are ridiculous, as they are so low that no one is going to pay a blind bit of notice.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
I wonder whether Labour were wise to make such a big thing of Cameron's comments on Sadiq Khan? It's always difficult in cases like this to judge whether to let the attack pass with only a mild rebuttal, or respond with all guns blazing, as Labour have in this case. The risk of the latter, obviously, is that it draws further attention to the issue. The risk of the former is that it could mean that it looks as though you are implicitly accepting at least some of the attack.
In this particular case, I think it was an error for Labour to cry 'Racist!', as it gave Zac an opportunity (which he used very well) to respond that it's not racist to be concerned about extremism. But responding vigorously to the extremist-link attack was probably sensible on Labour's part.
It probably doesn't matter much anyway. PBers will be collecting their 33/1s, I think.
Khan will win so yes it probably doesn't matter much.
But long-term I think it is foolish of Labour to react in the way they did. It makes them look as if they want to shut down debate on any association with extremists. If one can't ask legitimate questions about why senior Labour people always seem to associate with extremist Muslims and not the liberal peaceful non-extremist Muslims they're always talking about, it risks creating the perception that Labour thinks these are the only Muslims worth talking to, that these are the Muslims who represent the community. And that does a grave disservice to the non-extremists and does give more oxygen to the extremists. And it is but a short step from there to thinking that Labour is on the side of the extremists. That is the risk for Labour.
The nightmare for Labour - and pray God this does not happen - is if there is a terrorist attack and it turns out that there is a link between the perpetrators and all these radical imams and others senior Labour figures have been associating with.
There are plenty of non-extreme Muslims around who would be splendid role models and could advise Labour. Why does Labour persist on spurning them and being friends with the extremists, with those who advocate boycotts of fellow Muslims, who cheer the murder of people for arguing against blasphemy, who support convicted terrorists etc? The Tories may not win the battle but they may win the longer war. And Labour seem intent on helping them.
Very nicely put, Cyclefree, could not agree more. Outside of liberal London, I wonder what the broader public think of Labour MPs screaming 'racist' at the PM. The Muslim block vote shapes Labour thinking far more than any of us realise. Anyway, although I dislike Sadiq Khan for many reasons, he has played the magnanimous 'victim' to perfection.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
The exact levels of turnout will depend on things which aren't yet clear. If the referendum looks like being very close, turnout will be raised by that - on this occasion every vote really does count.
The public are going to be bombarded with information about the referendum nonstop for the next two months, during which time politicians on both sides are going to be screaming at them that the vote is incredibly important. It's inconceivable that's not going to drive up turnout.
I'm expecting turnout to be in the 60s and potentially in the high 60s.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
I think TC's theory - low turnout favours Leave - is right.
If we see turnout below around 58%, it'll be Leave. If we see turnout above 60%, it'll be Remain.
Mr. Eagles, a narrow lead is not what most people expected. Cameron and Osborne are reaping tomorrow's harvest to claim a feast today, but there'll be a Conservative famine tomorrow*.
Take people for granted and they either don't turn out or move to other groups (cf Mr. Fear et al).
*(Probably 2025, assuming Labour stops being mad when it comes to leaders).
I'm taking nothing for granted.
Just remember all those voters Cameron pissed off by introducing same sex marriage, ultimately helped him win over more net voters
What about party members?
They are broadly frustrated not by the PM but the decision of some to re-enact the 90s.
If that's the view of party managers, they're seriously out of touch. Or deluding themselves.
TSE is trying to send me a message.
Just to cheer you up. Our firm has its first Brexit contingency planning meeting at 2pm
We've already done that at Crossrail: no material impact.
We are Europe's largest construction project with a huge supply chain.
Looking forward to being able to ride main-line size trains through central London east to west!
He has some decent contests coming up in the run up to the biggy in California though (Though they're small states and not worth so many delegates)
By then I think it will be generally accepted that Trump is the presumptive nominee. Cruz cannot credibly fight down to the wire with no prospect of overtaking Trump, let alone getting to 1237.
Trump getting 60% in liberal New York must have been a bit of a wake-up call for those who are hoping he won't make it to November as nominee.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
The exact levels of turnout will depend on things which aren't yet clear. If the referendum looks like being very close, turnout will be raised by that - on this occasion every vote really does count.
The public are going to be bombarded with information about the referendum nonstop for the next two months, during which time politicians on both sides are going to be screaming at them that the vote is incredibly important. It's inconceivable that's not going to drive up turnout.
I'm expecting turnout to be in the 60s and potentially in the high 60s.
Mr. Royale, I wonder if we'll see a phenomenon of the Scottish vote return, namely couples deliberately splitting their votes, one Aye, one Nay, because they can't decide.
What amused me was Trump's 80% in Staten Island, Italian-Americans just go nuts for Trump. Whilst I think Trump will make NY competitive, forcing the Democrats to campaign in a very expensive media market, it is NJ that might be a dark horse. Romney got a pathetic share of the white vote there and there is also a big Guido community on the Jersey shore.
There are a few Plains West and Rocky Mountain West states coming up that Cruz should do well in. Problem is they have very few to no Mormons, and they are Primaries too. Also there might be a rally round the leader effect. Trump won a few counties in Idaho that border Montana, the ones without Mormons, even though it was caucus. I don't see Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as sure things for Cruz, Montana I could see an upset.
New York competitive? You seriously have to be joking.
What amused me was Trump's 80% in Staten Island, Italian-Americans just go nuts for Trump. Whilst I think Trump will make NY competitive, forcing the Democrats to campaign in a very expensive media market, it is NJ that might be a dark horse. Romney got a pathetic share of the white vote there and there is also a big Guido community on the Jersey shore.
There are a few Plains West and Rocky Mountain West states coming up that Cruz should do well in. Problem is they have very few to no Mormons, and they are Primaries too. Also there might be a rally round the leader effect. Trump won a few counties in Idaho that border Montana, the ones without Mormons, even though it was caucus. I don't see Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as sure things for Cruz, Montana I could see an upset.
New York competitive? You seriously have to be joking.
Clinton really accelerating away now, presumably because of the New York results news cycle - huge lead over Sanders in PA and crushing even Kasich in this national poll.
Clinton really accelerating away now, presumably because of the New York results news cycle - huge lead over Sanders in PA and crushing even Kasich in this national poll.
Why are the repubs even bothering, if that poll is right.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
The exact levels of turnout will depend on things which aren't yet clear. If the referendum looks like being very close, turnout will be raised by that - on this occasion every vote really does count.
The public are going to be bombarded with information about the referendum nonstop for the next two months, during which time politicians on both sides are going to be screaming at them that the vote is incredibly important. It's inconceivable that's not going to drive up turnout.
I'm expecting turnout to be in the 60s and potentially in the high 60s.
I think it will be in the 60s. People will be relentlessly told that it's important and closer to the time people will start to twig to the fact that it could lead to a change of Prime Minister.
Set against that, it seems unlikely that people who were not motivated to vote to choose the government would vote in the referendum. I can see a reason why they might - there are no safe seats and every vote counts - but it is still a stretch, imo. But 65% I can well believe in.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
1974 GE February = 78.8%, 1974 Oct GE = 72.8% 1975 June referendum on EC = 64.5% 2015 May GE = 65.1% Therefore 2016 June referendum = a) 47% if drop is same as Feb74 to 1975 or b) 58% if drop same as from Oct74 o 1975
A 60%+ for June 23rd referendum, in start of the holiday period, with the Labour+ voters less than enthused, looks optimistic.
Will this referendum fire us up? zzzzzzzzzzz Maybe if Labour voters want to send Cameron and Osborne a message?
Mr. Eagles, a narrow lead is not what most people expected. Cameron and Osborne are reaping tomorrow's harvest to claim a feast today, but there'll be a Conservative famine tomorrow*.
Take people for granted and they either don't turn out or move to other groups (cf Mr. Fear et al).
*(Probably 2025, assuming Labour stops being mad when it comes to leaders).
Labour would be comfortably ahead now, if they had an adequate leader. Cameron's and Osborne's ratings are not good, right now.
This is simply not true , historically speaking . The government has only been in power 1 year . People have gone from a year ago giving a smile , wink and nod to Conservative canvassers , to giving a shifty , eye voiding look and sometimes a scowl . This time next year it will have moved on to glaring looks , outright hostility and nasty comments , Then Labour should be comfortably ahead
Realistically and historically speaking the government has been in place for 6 years (as of next month).
The Prime Minister has been in place for 6 years. The Chancellor has been in place for 6 years. The Home Secretary has been in place for 6 years.
It is absurd to pretend we are 12 months into this government. We've lost a small part of what used to be the government but Blair had bigger reshuffles than the changes caused by election 2015.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
1974 GE February = 78.8%, 1974 Oct GE = 72.8% 1975 June referendum on EC = 64.5% 2015 May GE = 65.1% Therefore 2016 June referendum = a) 47% if drop is same as Feb74 to 1975 or b) 58% if drop same as from Oct74 o 1975
A 60%+ for June 23rd referendum, in start of the holiday period, with the Labour+ voters less than enthused, looks optimistic.
Will this referendum fire us up? zzzzzzzzzzz Maybe if Labour voters want to send Cameron and Osborne a message?
Against that, the '75 referendum was a done deal. It wasn't even close, and that will have depressed turnout. This one will be on a knife-edge, which will increase turnout.
It's not school holiday time, so I reckon 60-62% turnout, and if it does surprise, it'll be on the upside.
Clinton really accelerating away now, presumably because of the New York results news cycle - huge lead over Sanders in PA and crushing even Kasich in this national poll.
And POP goes Kasich's only selling point for himself as nominee.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
1974 GE February = 78.8%, 1974 Oct GE = 72.8% 1975 June referendum on EC = 64.5% 2015 May GE = 65.1% Therefore 2016 June referendum = a) 47% if drop is same as Feb74 to 1975 or b) 58% if drop same as from Oct74 o 1975
A 60%+ for June 23rd referendum, in start of the holiday period, with the Labour+ voters less than enthused, looks optimistic.
Will this referendum fire us up? zzzzzzzzzzz Maybe if Labour voters want to send Cameron and Osborne a message?
I'd say the EU is more important today than the EC was in 1975.
Clinton really accelerating away now, presumably because of the New York results news cycle - huge lead over Sanders in PA and crushing even Kasich in this national poll.
And POP goes Kasich's only selling point for himself as nominee.
Clinton really accelerating away now, presumably because of the New York results news cycle - huge lead over Sanders in PA and crushing even Kasich in this national poll.
The national numbers are pretty stable and PA is a closed primary more favourable to Clinton. However the Kasich matchup numbers are far better than previous.
"The contribution Europe has made to the arts in the UK is significant: free movement of labour makes collaboration far easier to realise by allowing artists and production teams to tour between countries without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems and enables London to retain a critical mass of creative people from across Europe, maintaining the capital’s position at the heart of the continent’s creative economy."
Mr. Royale, I wonder if we'll see a phenomenon of the Scottish vote return, namely couples deliberately splitting their votes, one Aye, one Nay, because they can't decide.
Sullen acquiescence and/or burning deep deep resentment for a major segment of the electorate will be the consequence of REMAIN. This will lead to even greater disengagement from politics and politicians and greater contempt for the country's and the EUs political institutions. This willbe deeply unhealthy for the social and political health of the nation with whether justifiably or not those people not acknowledging the legitimacy of their ultimate rulers.
A corrosive effect with many people in the demos having no sense of respect for the political system which they see no mechanism or hope to change is dangerous and unwelcome.
I believe that a lot of REMAINERS genuinely do not understand the way this vote is bound up with many people's self identity. Their sense of self and of tribe. If they are told that their tribe eg UK or England has been absorbed into or superseded by a larger tribe they will not simply shrug their ahoulders accept it and transfer allegiance to a new tribe. It just won't happen. Disengagement from the entire process as irrelevant is what will happen. Those Conservatives who blithely assume that it will be a return to business as usual post REMAIN with leavers trotting loyally out to vote for the party are in my view very optimistic. A plague on all their houses will get a lot of votes. Perhaps 15% turnout next Euro election?
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
1974 GE February = 78.8%, 1974 Oct GE = 72.8% 1975 June referendum on EC = 64.5% 2015 May GE = 65.1% Therefore 2016 June referendum = a) 47% if drop is same as Feb74 to 1975 or b) 58% if drop same as from Oct74 o 1975
A 60%+ for June 23rd referendum, in start of the holiday period, with the Labour+ voters less than enthused, looks optimistic.
Will this referendum fire us up? zzzzzzzzzzz Maybe if Labour voters want to send Cameron and Osborne a message?
I'd say the EU is more important today than the EC was in 1975.
Our propensity to vote has dropped from the 70 percents to the 60 percents at GEs so legitimate to expect significant drop in ec referendum. After all one Political Betting commandment from OGH, is that voters do not care much about the EC........ As evidenced by long term Ipsos Mori research.
How the thriving arts scene in New York survives without membership of the EU is a mystery.
It's a mystery...this claim is in the same basket as the football one. There is no way world class artists / performers are going to be restricted in any way.
Remain now claiming that Luvvies will suffer. It was footballers a couple of weeks ago.
The Ashdown/Rose quotes are gold.
Vote Leave for Higher Wages and Cheaper food.
I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of the Labour front bench on why the low paid's wages should be suppressed while their cost of living is inflated for the sake of the EU.
Remain now claiming that Luvvies will suffer. It was footballers a couple of weeks ago. The Ashdown/Rose quotes are gold. Vote Leave for Higher Wages and Cheaper food. I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of the Labour front bench on why the low paid's wages should be suppressed while their cost of living is inflated for the sake of the EU.
and with 3 million immigrants from REMAIN its
Vote Leave for Higher Wages, Cheaper food, cheaper Housing, Quicker GP appointments, Less crowded Roads, Room on trains, Less Begging, Fewer Prisoners, Less Crime etc etc
As someone said earlier , where is LEAVE's Grid of Announcements?
What amused me was Trump's 80% in Staten Island, Italian-Americans just go nuts for Trump. Whilst I think Trump will make NY competitive, forcing the Democrats to campaign in a very expensive media market, it is NJ that might be a dark horse. Romney got a pathetic share of the white vote there and there is also a big Guido community on the Jersey shore.
There are a few Plains West and Rocky Mountain West states coming up that Cruz should do well in. Problem is they have very few to no Mormons, and they are Primaries too. Also there might be a rally round the leader effect. Trump won a few counties in Idaho that border Montana, the ones without Mormons, even though it was caucus. I don't see Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as sure things for Cruz, Montana I could see an upset.
New York competitive? You seriously have to be joking.
Around 10% margin, no problem. Long Island and Westchester going Republican.
Remain now claiming that Luvvies will suffer. It was footballers a couple of weeks ago. The Ashdown/Rose quotes are gold. Vote Leave for Higher Wages and Cheaper food. I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of the Labour front bench on why the low paid's wages should be suppressed while their cost of living is inflated for the sake of the EU.
and with 3 million immigrants from REMAIN its
Vote Leave for Higher Wages, Cheaper food, cheaper Housing, Quicker GP appointments, Less crowded Roads, Room on trains, Less Begging, Fewer Prisoners, Less Crime etc etc
As someone said earlier , where is LEAVE's Grid of Announcements?
Where is LEAVE's campaign? Where are the adverts? the posters?
As someone who regularly gets to hear large quantities of German and Hungarian pop, I have to say that sparing my eardrums from having that inflicted on me is among the stronger reasons I can think of for Brexit.
"The contribution Europe has made to the arts in the UK is significant: free movement of labour makes collaboration far easier to realise by allowing artists and production teams to tour between countries without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems and enables London to retain a critical mass of creative people from across Europe, maintaining the capital’s position at the heart of the continent’s creative economy."
If we Brexit the water will go down the plug hole the opposite way.
After days of the Leave price sticking rigidly at 2.70 on Betfair, it has moved to 2.94 (last traded). Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
Yes, Leave has gone most of the way back to where it stood at the weekend.
I saw your post (BTL) yesterday in which you set out three reasons why Remain would win. The first was that you expected high turnout. I didn't get a chance to comment at the time but I wondered what you meant by high. My thinking is that it will approach GE levels but won't exceed them.
Why will it be well into the 60 percentages?
Why will it not?
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
1974 GE February = 78.8%, 1974 Oct GE = 72.8% 1975 June referendum on EC = 64.5% 2015 May GE = 65.1% Therefore 2016 June referendum = a) 47% if drop is same as Feb74 to 1975 or b) 58% if drop same as from Oct74 o 1975
A 60%+ for June 23rd referendum, in start of the holiday period, with the Labour+ voters less than enthused, looks optimistic.
Will this referendum fire us up? zzzzzzzzzzz Maybe if Labour voters want to send Cameron and Osborne a message?
I'd say the EU is more important today than the EC was in 1975.
Our propensity to vote has dropped from the 70 percents to the 60 percents at GEs so legitimate to expect significant drop in ec referendum. After all one Political Betting commandment from OGH, is that voters do not care much about the EC........ As evidenced by long term Ipsos Mori research.
That's a fair point. There are arguments both ways, I think.
When I say that turnout will be in the 60s I am indeed saying that this referendum will seem to be more important than the one in 75 did. I think the campaign will be louder and more insistent. The EU is a higher profile entity than the EEC was. And referndums themselves are no longer alien-seeming.
"The contribution Europe has made to the arts in the UK is significant: free movement of labour makes collaboration far easier to realise by allowing artists and production teams to tour between countries without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems and enables London to retain a critical mass of creative people from across Europe, maintaining the capital’s position at the heart of the continent’s creative economy."
If we Brexit the water will go down the plug hole the opposite way.
"Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury’s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs."
@MichaelLCrick: Very strange. Labour seem to have decided no party figure should come on #C4News to discuss our election expenses allegations. I wonder why
The Standard article is really talking about "high culture" I think, classical music in particular. There certainly is a fantastic range of international musicians performing in London and across the UK these days. Whether EU membership has any bearing on it I have no idea.
What amused me was Trump's 80% in Staten Island, Italian-Americans just go nuts for Trump. Whilst I think Trump will make NY competitive, forcing the Democrats to campaign in a very expensive media market, it is NJ that might be a dark horse. Romney got a pathetic share of the white vote there and there is also a big Guido community on the Jersey shore.
There are a few Plains West and Rocky Mountain West states coming up that Cruz should do well in. Problem is they have very few to no Mormons, and they are Primaries too. Also there might be a rally round the leader effect. Trump won a few counties in Idaho that border Montana, the ones without Mormons, even though it was caucus. I don't see Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as sure things for Cruz, Montana I could see an upset.
New York competitive? You seriously have to be joking.
Around 10% margin, no problem. Long Island and Westchester going Republican.
I don't think so. I live in Westchester and it trends more and more Democratic each year. The only success the GOP has had locally in recent years is taking and holding the County Executive ("Mayor") for the last two terms, and that's pretty much down to his trying to keep property taxes down. As to how Trump goes down around here - I shall quote the Fox News-watching owner of the barber's shop I use "He's a f***ing nutjob!"
'without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems'
Is Kenyon just ignorant of the fact that apart from COMECON countries there were no visa requirements to travel in Europe before we joined the EU or is it just another scare story ?
How the thriving arts scene in New York survives without membership of the EU is a mystery.
London pre 1975 must have been a dull place. What did people do in the evenings?
Without the EU we would never have had the Beatles, Led Zepplin or the Stones - probably.
Without the USA we would not have had the punk ideas from the USA in early 70s. What did the EU provide? Plastic Bertrand ffs?
Can, Kraftwerk and ABBA for starters.
David Guetta has been omnipresent in recent years.
dd they spark punk rock?
Kraftwerk were an essential building block of electronic music. You could make a decent case for them being the most influential band of the last 50 years.
Kraftwerk were an essential building block of electronic music. You could make a decent case for them being the most influential band of the last 50 years.
'without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems'
Is Kenyon just ignorant of the fact that apart from COMECON countries there were no visa requirements to travel in Europe before we joined the EU or is it just another scare story ?
The appeal of Brexit for many of your fellow leavers is to be able to reintroduce restrictions on freedom of movement.
The Standard article is really talking about "high culture" I think, classical music in particular. There certainly is a fantastic range of international musicians performing in London and across the UK these days. Whether EU membership has any bearing on it I have no idea.
London had a fantastic range of classical music concerts, before the UK joined the EU.
The envy and loathing of Britain's vastly superior modern music heritage oozes from its every pore.
They don;t just like to vote against us. They love it.
UK had more Eurovision victories pre-1973 than after?
Ooops. OK, two victories pre-1973, three after - but....BUT:
The two pre-accession victories were over the course of a 16 year time-frame (1956-1972), but the three post-accession victories were over the course of a 43 year time frame (1973-2016)!
Kraftwerk were an essential building block of electronic music. You could make a decent case for them being the most influential band of the last 50 years.
Comments
Trump 49 .. Cruz 31 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 45
Clinton 44 .. Trump 33
Clinton 42 .. Cruz 32
Clinton 40 .. Kasich 32
Clinton 42 .. Ryan 30
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersPolitical4202016.pdf
(It's amazing; renaming 'curl' and 'wget', or simply disallowing them to non-root users hardens your installation quite considerably, as does a little playing with the firewall to prevent outgoing requests to anything except the official update sites).
I'm now pretty careful, and (touch wood), it's been nine or ten years since I had problems.
I would also note, that I'd never do anything as stupid as to run a webserver behind the firewall.
Having said all that I think the new guidelines are ridiculous, as they are so low that no one is going to pay a blind bit of notice.
Rather nice day.
Delegate list in full:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/edit#gid=0
Cruz alot more organised than Kasich it seems.
Some signs of organisation from Trump, but I doubt he'll match Cruz's microtargetting
AV Referendum got 42.2% and that is of far less interest than whether we are in the EU or not.
The public are going to be bombarded with information about the referendum nonstop for the next two months, during which time politicians on both sides are going to be screaming at them that the vote is incredibly important. It's inconceivable that's not going to drive up turnout.
I'm expecting turnout to be in the 60s and potentially in the high 60s.
If we see turnout below around 58%, it'll be Leave.
If we see turnout above 60%, it'll be Remain.
Keep up the good work!
Looks more positive for Trump than I thought. Looks like he can count on at least 50%, maybe even more.
Set against that, it seems unlikely that people who were not motivated to vote to choose the government would vote in the referendum. I can see a reason why they might - there are no safe seats and every vote counts - but it is still a stretch, imo. But 65% I can well believe in.
1975 June referendum on EC = 64.5%
2015 May GE = 65.1% Therefore 2016 June referendum =
a) 47% if drop is same as Feb74 to 1975 or
b) 58% if drop same as from Oct74 o 1975
A 60%+ for June 23rd referendum, in start of the holiday period, with the Labour+ voters less than enthused, looks optimistic.
Will this referendum fire us up? zzzzzzzzzzz Maybe if Labour voters want to send Cameron and Osborne a message?
Evening standard tonight
Barbican Chief - Brexit could damage capitals arts scene.
Getting sick of this. Every day another "the worlds gonna end" if you do it. Remains campaign is just ridiculous now.
Presumably they're on the receiving end of UK taxpayers money 'rinsed' via Brussels.
The Prime Minister has been in place for 6 years.
The Chancellor has been in place for 6 years.
The Home Secretary has been in place for 6 years.
It is absurd to pretend we are 12 months into this government. We've lost a small part of what used to be the government but Blair had bigger reshuffles than the changes caused by election 2015.
It's not school holiday time, so I reckon 60-62% turnout, and if it does surprise, it'll be on the upside.
HE IS A PROVEN LOSER
http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/exhibitions/sir-nicholas-kenyon-cutting-our-ties-with-the-eu-could-seriously-hurt-our-thriving-arts-scene-a3230506.html
"The contribution Europe has made to the arts in the UK is significant: free movement of labour makes collaboration far easier to realise by allowing artists and production teams to tour between countries without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems and enables London to retain a critical mass of creative people from across Europe, maintaining the capital’s position at the heart of the continent’s creative economy."
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/722528821480681474
http://adyhowes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/caveman-300x202.gif
Single European Act, 1986
Denmark - 74.8% turnout
Maastricht, 1989-1992
Italy - 81%
Ireland - 57%
France - 70%
Denmark - 83%
Enlargement, 1995
Austria - 82%
Finland - 71%
Sweden - 83%
To Join EU, 1995
Norway - 89%
Treaty of Amsterdam, 1998
Ireland - 56%
Denmark - 76%
Conclusion: buy turnout if it's available
This will lead to even greater disengagement from politics and politicians and greater contempt for the country's and the EUs political institutions. This willbe deeply unhealthy for the social and political health of the nation with whether justifiably or not those people not acknowledging the legitimacy of their ultimate rulers.
A corrosive effect with many people in the demos having no sense of respect for the political system which they see no mechanism or hope to change is dangerous and unwelcome.
I believe that a lot of REMAINERS genuinely do not understand the way this vote is bound up with many people's self identity. Their sense of self and of tribe. If they are told that their tribe eg UK or England has been absorbed into or superseded by a larger tribe they will not simply shrug their ahoulders accept it and transfer allegiance to a new tribe. It just won't happen. Disengagement from the entire process as irrelevant is what will happen.
Those Conservatives who blithely assume that it will be a return to business as usual post REMAIN with leavers trotting loyally out to vote for the party are in my view very optimistic. A plague on all their houses will get a lot of votes.
Perhaps 15% turnout next Euro election?
London pre 1975 must have been a dull place. What did people do in the evenings?
Make every voter attend a near 3 hour Brexit contingency planning meeting.
#SpeakingFromExperience
Not to mention it is actually possible to travel to countries not in the EU.
Vote leave !
Leave need a grid to get themselves in the headlines 2-3 days a week too.
Most people get their news from the BBC and the BBC news website, and they have no interest in helping.
The Ashdown/Rose quotes are gold.
Vote Leave for Higher Wages and Cheaper food.
I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of the Labour front bench on why the low paid's wages should be suppressed while their cost of living is inflated for the sake of the EU.
Clinton 57 .. Sanders 32
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24325
Albania, which is in neither, produces Elvana Gjata.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pk8HFF9pFC4
LOL...you so know that is what she was really thinking...what Philip was thinking is not suitable a family website.
Philadelphia: Trump 46 Cruz 36
Northeast: Trump 50 Cruz 24
Northwest: Trump 51 Cruz 25
Central: Trump 33 Cruz 27
Allegheny: Kasich 41 Trump 35 CD 14
Southeast: Kasich 36 Trump 31 CD 4, 16
Southwest: Cruz/Trump 26 CD 18, 12, 9
Vote Leave for Higher Wages, Cheaper food, cheaper Housing, Quicker GP appointments, Less crowded Roads, Room on trains, Less Begging, Fewer Prisoners, Less Crime etc etc
As someone said earlier , where is LEAVE's Grid of Announcements?
http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/hillary-could-lose-to-trump-in-democratic-new-york/
Hashtag cultural desert.
When I say that turnout will be in the 60s I am indeed saying that this referendum will seem to be more important than the one in 75 did. I think the campaign will be louder and more insistent. The EU is a higher profile entity than the EEC was. And referndums themselves are no longer alien-seeming.
David Guetta has been omnipresent in recent years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/BREXIT/abstract.asp?index=5017
"Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury’s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs."
The envy and loathing of Britain's vastly superior modern music heritage oozes from its every pore.
They don;t just like to vote against us. They love it.
Which is an entirely different matter, although one worthy of debate.
Sweden accession to EC 1995
'without being subject to the bureaucracy of individual nations’ visa systems'
Is Kenyon just ignorant of the fact that apart from COMECON countries there were no visa requirements to travel in Europe before we joined the EU or is it just another scare story ?
The two pre-accession victories were over the course of a 16 year time-frame (1956-1972), but the three post-accession victories were over the course of a 43 year time frame (1973-2016)!
What did people do in the privacy of their own homes during those dark evenings?