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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd

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  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,945
    Scott_P said:

    watford30 said:

    You think the party membership will vote for Osborne now? Dream on.

    I think if he is one of 2 candidates, and the other is a Loser, sorry, I meant Leaver, then if Remain wins, yes
    Osborne is as popular as herpes.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Brown is widely acknowledged as having led the international response so he can hardly have been paralysed by the crash. Distracted from other events, perhaps.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Brown is widely acknowledged as having led the international response so he can hardly have been paralysed by the crash. Distracted from other events, perhaps.
    That is the biggest pile of B/S Only in his own mind did Brown save the world. Darling had to drag Brown kicking and screaming to the rescue of British banks that weekend in October 2008. And it was Brown's paralysis and refusal to countenance a deal which would have saved Northern Rock which led to the run on its branches and its eventual collapse months later.

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Is Corbyn about to emulate Ramsay MacDonald for incoherence & illogical statements?

    How many plcs would attempt to copy George Osborne's forecasting technique. It reminds me of the story about Kingsley Amis talking to Margaret Thatcher about his book Russian Hide and Seek. The theme was 50 years after the Russian conquest of Britain. Her reply was on the lines of buy yourself a new crystal ball.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Do you think the GOP will kiss and make up after Cleveland ?

    Will Hillary/SCOTUS focus minds ?
    To a significant degree yes. Although there will remain some as indicated by the Utah poll that would see hell freeze over before lifting a finger for Trump. The Donald's principal problems are his narrow base, shocking negatives and awful pull with minorities in swing states.

    The SCOTUS issue will likely assist Clinton more than the GOP at the margin especially given the polling that shows a substantial slice of GOP voters disagree with the blocking tactics of the Senate Republicans.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    So the Treasury is now making predictions out to 2030.

    The same Treasury which produced this document in March 2008:

    http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/bud08_chapter1.pdf

    It begins:

    ' Budget 2008, Stability and opportunity: building a strong, sustainable future, presents updated assessments and forecasts of the economy and public finances, and reports on how the Government's policies are delivering its long-term goals. The Budget reports that the economy is stable and resilient, and continuing to grow, and that the Government is meeting its strict fiscal rules for the public finances '

    So in March 2008 the Treasury thought that the economy was strong and resilient and continuing to grow.

    The following four quarters of the 'strong, resilient and continuing to grow' economy had growth of:

    2008q2 -0.6%
    2008q3 -1.7%
    2008q4 -2.3%
    2009q1 -1.6%

    A year later the Treasury's borrowing predictions had increased by half a TRILLION pounds.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    Scott_P said:

    watford30 said:

    You think the party membership will vote for Osborne now? Dream on.

    I think if he is one of 2 candidates, and the other is a Loser, sorry, I meant Leaver, then if Remain wins, yes
    I don't think you have your finger on the pulse of the party.

    Unsurprising, if you're not actually a member.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    Then we have Osborne frothing about some fictional £30bn 'black hole' on government finances in 2030.

    The same Osborne who has created an actual £170bn black hole in the government finances since 2010.

    What's the saying about motes and beams ?

  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Do you think the GOP will kiss and make up after Cleveland ?

    Will Hillary/SCOTUS focus minds ?
    To a significant degree yes. Although there will remain some as indicated by the Utah poll that would see hell freeze over before lifting a finger for Trump. The Donald's principal problems are his narrow base, shocking negatives and awful pull with minorities in swing states.

    The SCOTUS issue will likely assist Clinton more than the GOP at the margin especially given the polling that shows a substantial slice of GOP voters disagree with the blocking tactics of the Senate Republicans.
    SCOTUS gets the Sanders voters turning out in numbes for Hilary which she was going to have problems with otherwise.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    Scott_P said:

    The Out camp has failed to come down clearly on what post-Brexit trading arrangement it favours. It claims, with straight face, that Britain could maintain access to the single market without meeting the obligations this entails as regards free movement of people. This disdain for political reality bears more than a passing resemblance to the Know Nothing rhetoric of Donald Trump.

    This June’s referendum is the most important political decision that the British people will take for a generation. All sides must engage in arguments of substance. The Treasury’s report is a useful counterpoint in a debate that is becoming increasingly politically charged, especially within a divided Conservative party. If the Brexiteers cannot respond by addressing the issues it raises head on, they do not deserve to be taken seriously.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/45b86bb6-0552-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#ixzz46Ce147CB
    oh dear FT again, why not post the Sun ?

    It has pithier analysis, lots more readers and we all get just one vote

    Does the FT still advocate Britain joining the Euro ?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And the Boston Globe joins the conspiracy...

    @NickThornsby: The happy moron and Brexit - The Boston Globe << @nfergus skewers the Brexiters https://t.co/utJZB2x4Xl
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591

    Scott_P said:

    The Out camp has failed to come down clearly on what post-Brexit trading arrangement it favours. It claims, with straight face, that Britain could maintain access to the single market without meeting the obligations this entails as regards free movement of people. This disdain for political reality bears more than a passing resemblance to the Know Nothing rhetoric of Donald Trump.

    This June’s referendum is the most important political decision that the British people will take for a generation. All sides must engage in arguments of substance. The Treasury’s report is a useful counterpoint in a debate that is becoming increasingly politically charged, especially within a divided Conservative party. If the Brexiteers cannot respond by addressing the issues it raises head on, they do not deserve to be taken seriously.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/45b86bb6-0552-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#ixzz46Ce147CB
    oh dear FT again, why not post the Sun ?

    It has pithier analysis, lots more readers and we all get just one vote

    That's the FT that supported Kinnock, the ERM and the Euro.

    If Remainers want to try to convince Leavers they are going to have to do better than that.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    And the Boston Globe joins the conspiracy...

    @NickThornsby: The happy moron and Brexit - The Boston Globe << @nfergus skewers the Brexiters https://t.co/utJZB2x4Xl</p&gt;

    Isn't Lincolnshire a hotbed of Faragism and Brexiteers ?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    ICM Phone poll (changes in bracket)


    Con 38 (+2)

    Lab 33 (-3)

    LD 7 (-1)

    UKIP 13 (+2)

    Greens 3 (nc)

    That really is pitiful for the LibDems.

    Being in government has totally destroyed them.

    The ironic thing is I'm increasingly viewing their governmental performance in favourable terms.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Indeed but if the GOP are having to defend Utah, that will not help their efforts!
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    And rightly so. Err on the side of discretion.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    AndyJS said:
    You do wonder.

    Perhaps it'll all become crystal clear on Friday once Obama tells us obedient Brits how to vote.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Your employer should welcome people with alternative views.

    Few things are as dangerous as unchallenged groupthink.

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2016
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Indeed but if the GOP are having to defend Utah, that will not help their efforts!
    I really don't think much blood and gold will have to be expended in Utah.

    Trump's problems lie elsewhere - Swingstategedon
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894
    Evening all :)

    Well, if this is symptomatic of the next 65 days, I doubt many of us will make it to June 23rd.

    I keep coming back to Ernest Bevin's words on Britain's relationship with Europe as far back as 1950 - we aren't socially, culturally, politically or economically European. Geography and history (950 years since a different kind of referendum down on the south coast which REMAIN won) mean we need to have a relationship with Europe and pretending it isn't there isn't an option.

    Defining that relationship is the problem - I suspect most people are happy with the economic aspects particularly the Single Market and nobody wants to go back to the bad old days of mutually antagonistic militaristic nation states working out their differences via blood and gore every so often.

    And yet from Magna Carta onwards, the English in particular have had a difficult relationship with the State. We beheaded a King who tried to be an autocrat and our relative political stability since then has not been unrelated to a political and representative system which, while not without its flaws. generally works pretty well.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2016
    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Your employer should welcome people with alternative views.

    Few things are as dangerous as unchallenged groupthink.

    Should but don't. At least not in my experience.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Indeed but if the GOP are having to defend Utah, that will not help their efforts!
    I really don't think much blood and gold will have to expended in Utah.

    Trump's problems lie elsewhere - Swingstategedon
    Any gold he does have to spend in Salt Lake City is gold that cannot be spent in Ohio, Virginia and Florida
  • Options
    dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    It seems the polls are now stuck in a pattern that indicates Remain. Only three things could swing it for Leave.
    1. Tony Blair takes a higher profile for Remain.
    2.Andy Burnham declares that we have 66 days to save the NHS by voting Remain.
    3.Jeremy Corbyn says that he intends from now on to campaign actively for Remain.
    You never know. Do not under estimate the sheer uselessness of the Labour party in this situation. Todays ICM polls underline how marginalised they are from the national conversation.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Well, if this is symptomatic of the next 65 days, I doubt many of us will make it to June 23rd.

    I keep coming back to Ernest Bevin's words on Britain's relationship with Europe as far back as 1950 - we aren't socially, culturally, politically or economically European. Geography and history (950 years since a different kind of referendum down on the south coast which REMAIN won) mean we need to have a relationship with Europe and pretending it isn't there isn't an option.

    Defining that relationship is the problem - I suspect most people are happy with the economic aspects particularly the Single Market and nobody wants to go back to the bad old days of mutually antagonistic militaristic nation states working out their differences via blood and gore every so often.

    And yet from Magna Carta onwards, the English in particular have had a difficult relationship with the State. We beheaded a King who tried to be an autocrat and our relative political stability since then has not been unrelated to a political and representative system which, while not without its flaws. generally works pretty well.

    Post more often stodge.

    Your comments are always worth reading.
  • Options
    LayneLayne Posts: 163
    The morons are those people who believe the EEA has no benefits for services over WTO rules, and the analysis built on that assumption today.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Awesome plan...

    @rowenamason: Kate Hoey at Grassroots Out rally urging people to accost fellow customers in the supermarket to convince them to vote to leave EU
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Your employer should welcome people with alternative views.

    Few things are as dangerous as unchallenged groupthink.

    Should but don't. At least not in my experience.
    The good ones do.

    I guess that doesn't contradict your comment.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Indeed but if the GOP are having to defend Utah, that will not help their efforts!
    I really don't think much blood and gold will have to expended in Utah.

    Trump's problems lie elsewhere - Swingstategedon
    Any gold he does have to spend in Salt Lake City is gold that cannot be spent in Ohio, Virginia and Florida
    We're really talking small potatoes in Utah. Trump will not be short of tubers for the general election.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    She's an embarrassment.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Well, if this is symptomatic of the next 65 days, I doubt many of us will make it to June 23rd.

    I keep coming back to Ernest Bevin's words on Britain's relationship with Europe as far back as 1950 - we aren't socially, culturally, politically or economically European. Geography and history (950 years since a different kind of referendum down on the south coast which REMAIN won) mean we need to have a relationship with Europe and pretending it isn't there isn't an option.

    Defining that relationship is the problem - I suspect most people are happy with the economic aspects particularly the Single Market and nobody wants to go back to the bad old days of mutually antagonistic militaristic nation states working out their differences via blood and gore every so often.

    And yet from Magna Carta onwards, the English in particular have had a difficult relationship with the State. We beheaded a King who tried to be an autocrat and our relative political stability since then has not been unrelated to a political and representative system which, while not without its flaws. generally works pretty well.

    I've more or less come to the conclusion that, whatever his motivation, Charles de Gaulle had it right when he kept saying "Non" to UK entering the Common Market.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy

    Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
    Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
    Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68

    Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
    Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
    Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64

    http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

    Utah really does not like Trump, he could be the first Republican to lose the state since Goldwater!
    indeed so. The Romney effect in play.

    That said I'd still expect a comfortable Trump win in Utah in November albeit not by the landslide proportions normally expected of GOP candidates.
    Indeed but if the GOP are having to defend Utah, that will not help their efforts!
    I really don't think much blood and gold will have to expended in Utah.

    Trump's problems lie elsewhere - Swingstategedon
    Any gold he does have to spend in Salt Lake City is gold that cannot be spent in Ohio, Virginia and Florida
    We're really talking small potatoes in Utah. Trump will not be short of tubers for the general election.
    It has 6 EC votes, 2 more than NH, in a very tight race it could be crucial. Even having to divert the campaign plane to Utah in the final days costs vital hours in the swing states
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Notice how BSE are now describing every f--- up by Leave.EU as the fault of the "Leave campaigns". Smart, but dishonest.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,003
    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    LOL. That is brilliant. To think there were those who actually thought Truss might be a future Tory leader. When you don't even know the scope of your own department your really are out of your depth,
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,226

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    If you value the business you work for and your colleagues I would not put that at risk. Sometimes delightful and intelligent people can have different views on a topic. It may be better to just park some issues. And if you feel you won't be able to stay quiet, then I would stay away. But I'm sure you can be quiet and listen. You may be surprised to find that others have more doubts than you are assuming.

    And it would probably do you good to listen to why they are Remainers.

    And then you can come and vent on here.....!

    Mind you at these dinners, what with all the drinking and networking and social chit chat and eating and the like there's precious little time for discussing any substance. I'd concentrate on the networking for the good of your career.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    edited April 2016
    dyingswan said:

    It seems the polls are now stuck in a pattern that indicates Remain. Only three things could swing it for Leave.
    1. Tony Blair takes a higher profile for Remain.
    2.Andy Burnham declares that we have 66 days to save the NHS by voting Remain.
    3.Jeremy Corbyn says that he intends from now on to campaign actively for Remain.
    You never know. Do not under estimate the sheer uselessness of the Labour party in this situation. Todays ICM polls underline how marginalised they are from the national conversation.

    Tony Blair is making a big pro Leave speech at the weekend. Apparently, we can never truly be up George Bush's butt, unless we leave the EU.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited April 2016
    Trump's Betfair odds to win the GOP nomination have shortened by 30% over the past 48 hours from Evens to 7/10 but thus far has barely rated a mention on the site.
    Had his odds instead LENGTHENED by 30%, that would have been headline news on PB.com and would have triggered a new thread highlighting such news.

    Funny that!
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Your employer should welcome people with alternative views.

    Few things are as dangerous as unchallenged groupthink.

    Should but don't. At least not in my experience.
    The good ones do.

    I guess that doesn't contradict your comment.
    I had one very good employer, and groupthink was an immense problem there.

    The assessment criteria were fairly consistent with personality styles, so that only the approved personality types could hope for promotion.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,905
    Living the EU dream, just back from day business trip to Berlin. Surprisingly good day. Tesla S taxi to the airport was added bonus. Those things shift.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Casino my advice is to stay quiet. Your employer has a strong view the other way seeing it as fundamental to their business. Misguided, probably, but think of your economic well being.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992

    Trump's Betfair odds to win the GOP nomination have shortened by 30% over the past 48 hours from Evens to 7/10 but thus far has barely rated a mention.
    Had his odds instead LENGTHENED by 30%, that would have been headline news on PB.com and would have triggered a new thread highlighting such news.

    Funny that!

    Hah very true.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Your employer should welcome people with alternative views.

    Few things are as dangerous as unchallenged groupthink.

    Should but don't. At least not in my experience.
    The good ones do.

    I guess that doesn't contradict your comment.
    I had one very good employer, and groupthink was an immense problem there.

    The assessment criteria were fairly consistent with personality styles, so that only the approved personality types could hope for promotion.
    Its certainly possible that the groupthink might be right for an organisation.

    But is should always be open to outside views.

    When organisations are unwilling to accept questions then they fall into complacency and stagnation.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    She's an embarrassment.
    We are run by fools.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,905

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Just delight in the fact your boss as exactly the same number of votes as you, that you are probably not alone in the room and that - so long as he is with you - Mandleson is wasting his time, which could be better spent elsewhere.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    She's an embarrassment.
    We are run by fools.
    Even disregarding her ministerial job Truss is MP for Norfolk SW, one of the most agricultural dependent constituencies in the country.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited April 2016
    Regarding the ICM, are we certain that they haven't changed the methodology since the last poll, as they keep threatening to do? Otherwise, it is the outlier, as all other polls in the meantime have shown a marked shift towards labour.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    University challenge final showing the difference between Cambridge and Oxford
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JWisemann said:

    Regarding the ICM, are we certain that they haven't changed the methodology since the last poll, as they keep threatening to do? Otherwise, it is the outlier, as all other polls in the meantime have shown a marked shift towards labour.

    ComRes also showed a 5-point Tory lead at the weekend.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Danny565 said:

    JWisemann said:

    Regarding the ICM, are we certain that they haven't changed the methodology since the last poll, as they keep threatening to do? Otherwise, it is the outlier, as all other polls in the meantime have shown a marked shift towards labour.

    ComRes also showed a 5-point Tory lead at the weekend.
    Yes, but the trend was still towards labour. The trend here is against, unlike pretty much every other poll in the period.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,004
    On work environments, despite not being a supporter of them myself, I've found myself surprised on occasion to hear what is normally a very politically cautious office openly opine that UKIP and all its supporters are clear racists. It's all the more surprising to me as I live and work in the Tory shires, where I'd assume a certain level of UKIP affinity to filter through even in the public sector.
  • Options
    If money's what counts: Why Don't EU Do Right?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdqvX-n25gs
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    kle4 said:

    On work environments, despite not being a supporter of them myself, I've found myself surprised on occasion to hear what is normally a very politically cautious office openly opine that UKIP and all its supporters are clear racists. It's all the more surprising to me as I live and work in the Tory shires, where I'd assume a certain level of UKIP affinity to filter through even in the public sector.

    I work in the civil service and hear similar things said about Ukip. What's odd is that the people saying it don't for a second imagine there are Ukip voters in the office. Quite how they'd react if they encountered a Ukip supporter I don't know.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    University challenge final showing the difference between Cambridge and Oxford

    Indeed - makes me so proud.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016

    tlg86 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    She's an embarrassment.
    We are run by fools.
    Even disregarding her ministerial job Truss is MP for Norfolk SW, one of the most agricultural dependent constituencies in the country.
    I thought she had a vote winner idea with increasing the child to staff ratios in nursery schools. She backed it up with figures from (i believe) Holland and it would have enabled a lower charge to parents, more profit for the schools and higher wages. Alas having been given the job, she buckled under the opposition of Clegg and took a job elsewhere in return for her acquiescence. Completely lacked principles and backbone. Oh and she stole the childrens minister job of Tim Loughton who had done good work on reducing the number of kids in care. No surprise to see her advocating REMAIN.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    AndyJS said:
    Taking the "Heads as you win, tails you lose" approch to polling...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Brown is widely acknowledged as having led the international response so he can hardly have been paralysed by the crash. Distracted from other events, perhaps.
    That is the biggest pile of B/S Only in his own mind did Brown save the world. Darling had to drag Brown kicking and screaming to the rescue of British banks that weekend in October 2008. And it was Brown's paralysis and refusal to countenance a deal which would have saved Northern Rock which led to the run on its branches and its eventual collapse months later.

    Quite so. It is incredible that some of Brown's delusions (bordering on the medical) survive to this day.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    JackW said:

    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Deary me.

    I though John Redwood was a racing cert for Looniest comment of the day, but no, here comes IDS up the rail...

    @TelePolitics: Iain Duncan Smith: David Cameron begged Barack Obama to help him 'bully the British people'… https://t.co/7xLekW4Mle https://t.co/uRHg9x07Jw

    That civil Tory Civil War is going well then. IDS has already implicitly called Cameron a liar, now a coward, the remainers have called leavers delusional. And it's so early too.
    Luckily for them, The Bearded Tit remains firmly ensconced as leader of the Labour Party.
    And the blue tit leads the Conservatives and the great tit UKIP.
    I wouldn't like to say if any of the lady leaders are Penduline Tits....
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    kle4 said:

    On work environments, despite not being a supporter of them myself, I've found myself surprised on occasion to hear what is normally a very politically cautious office openly opine that UKIP and all its supporters are clear racists. It's all the more surprising to me as I live and work in the Tory shires, where I'd assume a certain level of UKIP affinity to filter through even in the public sector.

    I find it amusing when the same people who openly attack UKIP subsequently make some incredibly un-PC comment.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    So can someone who knows more than me (TSE?) confirm whether ICM methodology is the same then? I'm genuinely interested.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Astonishing ignorance.

    But perhaps this results from uncritically sucking up all the propaganda about Norway that the government have engaged in since day one.

    As I argued ages ago, the Norway model is a huge danger for the government because it is so close to what most of the public want. Hence the desperate attempts to rubbish it from the off.
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    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Then you were wrong. How she got a first at Oxford heavens knows but maybe General Melchett was right after all.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Then you were wrong. How she got a first at Oxford heavens knows but maybe General Melchett was right after all.
    One day there will be a comedy series funnier than Blackadder goes forth. One day....
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    JWisemann said:

    So can someone who knows more than me (TSE?) confirm whether ICM methodology is the same then? I'm genuinely interested.

    I'm like John Snow, I know nothing, as they've not published the tables yet.

    My own hunch is that this poll is a reversion to the mean, as last month was a tie, and ICM said it was a rogue poll due to the sample being too skewed to voting Labour in May 2015.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016
    Allistair Heath gives Osborne both barrels.
    "Yet the Treasury report on the supposed long-term impact of leaving the EU is shameful, undoubtedly the worst piece of “research” from a government department in years.
    It starts off with a scandalously biased assumption: that there can be no possible economic benefits to Brexit, just costs. In other words, it’s not really a cost-benefit analysis of Brexit, but merely a cost-cost one. And not just any costs, mind: in each case, any downsides are magnified in an extreme way. "
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/18/the-treasurys-dodgy-dossier-on-brexit-is-beneath-contempt/
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Astonishing ignorance.

    But perhaps this results from uncritically sucking up all the propaganda about Norway that the government have engaged in since day one.

    As I argued ages ago, the Norway model is a huge danger for the government because it is so close to what most of the public want. Hence the desperate attempts to rubbish it from the off.
    I am so disappointed that we have waited 40 odds years for this opportunity and the Norway Option has been largely ignored. Project Fear would be just a fraction of what we are seeing as we would retain access to the Single Market and maintain freedom of movement.

    IF we vote to remain I really really hope everyone in Vote Leave, Leave.eu, Grassroots Out, etc., has a long hard think about what to propose in order to give us the best chance of leaving.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992
    Technically Liz Truss is correct. It matters as much as much to Norway as the farming policy of the USA does to the EU however...
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,322
    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    edited April 2016
    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,322
    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
    I would really like to think so.
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    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
    I wonder if it to do with this?

    https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722134342626058240
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
    the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
    I really think yes covers it. If you think that is a sensible comment you are missing a lot. If you think that agricultural policy within the EU would bother us once we leave (even within the EEA) you are missing more. We would choose what to spend on supporting our own agriculture or what not to spend. Hence the NFU vote today.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,945

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
    I wonder if it to do with this?

    https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722134342626058240
    There's a surprise.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,945

    JWisemann said:

    So can someone who knows more than me (TSE?) confirm whether ICM methodology is the same then? I'm genuinely interested.

    I'm like John Snow, I know nothing, as they've not published the tables yet.

    My own hunch is that this poll is a reversion to the mean, as last month was a tie, and ICM said it was a rogue poll due to the sample being too skewed to voting Labour in May 2015.
    My view is that on average, the Conservatives are 1-2% ahead of Labour.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,322
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
    I really think yes covers it. If you think that is a sensible comment you are missing a lot. If you think that agricultural policy within the EU would bother us once we leave (even within the EEA) you are missing more. We would choose what to spend on supporting our own agriculture or what not to spend. Hence the NFU vote today.
    So Truss thinks our agriculture would be better served sitting at the High Table; you think that's of no moment. Fair enough. It's a difference of opinion. But I got the impression she'd dropped a huge clanger or something.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Maryland - Target Point/Washington Beacon

    Trump 33 .. Cruz 26 .. Kasich 25

    http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MD-GOP-Primary-Survey-Toplines-1.pdf
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,945

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Then you were wrong. How she got a first at Oxford heavens knows but maybe General Melchett was right after all.
    I know a delightfully naughty story about her time at Oxford, that I couldn't possibly type here.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
    I wonder if it to do with this?

    https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722134342626058240
    There's a surprise.
    I was shocked by this as much as finding out there was gambling taking place in Rick's Cafe in Casablanca.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
    I really think yes covers it. If you think that is a sensible comment you are missing a lot. If you think that agricultural policy within the EU would bother us once we leave (even within the EEA) you are missing more. We would choose what to spend on supporting our own agriculture or what not to spend. Hence the NFU vote today.
    So Truss thinks our agriculture would be better served sitting at the High Table; you think that's of no moment. Fair enough. It's a difference of opinion. But I got the impression she'd dropped a huge clanger or something.
    Better go back to sarcasm and winding people up. You showed some real talent at that.

    Why would it benefit us being at the High Table when we take no part in the feast? When we have ordered our own carry out? When what is decided is of no relevance to us and we no longer foot a part of the bill? It is an idiotic thing to say. Or, as Robert says, much more likely to have said on her behalf by some dumb bell who doesn't know what he is talking about.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New Jersey - Rutgers/Eagleton

    Trump 52 .. Kasich 24 .. Cruz 18
    Clinton 51 .. Sanders 42

    http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    Are we talking about this Liz Truss?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
    I really think yes covers it. If you think that is a sensible comment you are missing a lot. If you think that agricultural policy within the EU would bother us once we leave (even within the EEA) you are missing more. We would choose what to spend on supporting our own agriculture or what not to spend. Hence the NFU vote today.
    So Truss thinks our agriculture would be better served sitting at the High Table; you think that's of no moment. Fair enough. It's a difference of opinion. But I got the impression she'd dropped a huge clanger or something.
    "our agriculture would be better served sitting at the High Table"

    What high table? Why do we even need to sit there?

    Why be in an organisation where QMV (and the French) can out-vote us in agriculture?

    Why can't we* just make our own decisions?

    *Well you can't, obviously, but the rest of us...

  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Allistair Heath gives Osborne both barrels.
    "Yet the Treasury report on the supposed long-term impact of leaving the EU is shameful, undoubtedly the worst piece of “research” from a government department in years.
    It starts off with a scandalously biased assumption: that there can be no possible economic benefits to Brexit, just costs. In other words, it’s not really a cost-benefit analysis of Brexit, but merely a cost-cost one. And not just any costs, mind: in each case, any downsides are magnified in an extreme way. "
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/18/the-treasurys-dodgy-dossier-on-brexit-is-beneath-contempt/

    Been described as the Tories "dodgy dossier"

    Where's the beast when you need him?
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    Allistair Heath gives Osborne both barrels.
    "Yet the Treasury report on the supposed long-term impact of leaving the EU is shameful, undoubtedly the worst piece of “research” from a government department in years.
    It starts off with a scandalously biased assumption: that there can be no possible economic benefits to Brexit, just costs. In other words, it’s not really a cost-benefit analysis of Brexit, but merely a cost-cost one. And not just any costs, mind: in each case, any downsides are magnified in an extreme way. "
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/18/the-treasurys-dodgy-dossier-on-brexit-is-beneath-contempt/

    I don't always agree with him, but he is spot on here.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,003

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    Sorry, am I missing something here? Truss didn't mention CAP. It was the bloke who replied who brought it up. Or are we saying that post-Leave the EU can do what it likes with agricultural policy and it will never affect us one iota?
    Yes.
    Please tell me what.
    I really think yes covers it. If you think that is a sensible comment you are missing a lot. If you think that agricultural policy within the EU would bother us once we leave (even within the EEA) you are missing more. We would choose what to spend on supporting our own agriculture or what not to spend. Hence the NFU vote today.
    So Truss thinks our agriculture would be better served sitting at the High Table; you think that's of no moment. Fair enough. It's a difference of opinion. But I got the impression she'd dropped a huge clanger or something.
    If we are not in the EU we are not subject to the CAP. As such we have no need to be 'at the high table' because we have complete control over our own agriculture.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    This Spurs side are seriously good and a delight to watch. Didn't enjoy the 3 goals against United as much but it was still hard not to admire the skill.

    Leicester can still not afford to slip up.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,003

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
    I wonder if it to do with this?

    https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722134342626058240
    There's a surprise.
    I was shocked by this as much as finding out there was gambling taking place in Rick's Cafe in Casablanca.
    Not a fan of Truss then?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    dyingswan said:

    It seems the polls are now stuck in a pattern that indicates Remain. Only three things could swing it for Leave.
    1. Tony Blair takes a higher profile for Remain.
    2.Andy Burnham declares that we have 66 days to save the NHS by voting Remain.
    3.Jeremy Corbyn says that he intends from now on to campaign actively for Remain.
    You never know. Do not under estimate the sheer uselessness of the Labour party in this situation. Todays ICM polls underline how marginalised they are from the national conversation.

    4. Eddie Izzard and Emma Thompson start campaigning very publicly for Remain
    5. Roger predicts a Remain landslide
    6. Dan Hodges promises to streak fully starkers this time if Leave win
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    If you value the business you work for and your colleagues I would not put that at risk. Sometimes delightful and intelligent people can have different views on a topic. It may be better to just park some issues. And if you feel you won't be able to stay quiet, then I would stay away. But I'm sure you can be quiet and listen. You may be surprised to find that others have more doubts than you are assuming.

    And it would probably do you good to listen to why they are Remainers.

    And then you can come and vent on here.....!

    Mind you at these dinners, what with all the drinking and networking and social chit chat and eating and the like there's precious little time for discussing any substance. I'd concentrate on the networking for the good of your career.
    Thank you :-)
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulps

    How's the spreadsheet looking?
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    This whole obsession with 'high tables' and 'top tables' just proves what the establishment's attachment to the EU is about i.e. self-advancement, vanity and lording it over the rest of us.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,571
    edited April 2016

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Thinking about it, I wonder if the Stronger In Press tweeter, and his summary, made her look stupider than she is.
    I wonder if it to do with this?

    https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722134342626058240
    There's a surprise.
    I was shocked by this as much as finding out there was gambling taking place in Rick's Cafe in Casablanca.
    Not a fan of Truss then?
    Well she's a former Liberal Democrat. :lol:

    Some of the worst Tories are ex SDP/Liberal Democrat defectors.

    Yes, I'm looking at you Chris Grayling.

    I liked her predecessor, Owen Paterson, a lot. He made a very persuasive case for GM Foods.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.

    They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.

    I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.

    What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?

    I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.

    But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.

    I agree. One of the best political meetings I have ever been to was when Jimmy Reid was standing in Dundee as a candidate. I agreed with almost nothing he said but boy, did he say it well.

    Mandelson has many flaws but is, in my opinion, the unsung hero of the crash. Brown was completely paralysed by it and seriously needed someone competent to run his government for him. He is an interesting guy and I would not miss the opportunity to hear him speak.
    Thanks. You both make some interesting points.

    Incidentally, hearing Mandelson speak, or not, isn't the issue. I have no problem with that. In fact, I welcome it.

    It's the politics of the politics within my business that concerns me.
    Casino my advice is to stay quiet. Your employer has a strong view the other way seeing it as fundamental to their business. Misguided, probably, but think of your economic well being.
    I have an idea. Basically, if I get directly challenged, I need to be a politician:

    Employer: "he's so right, isn't it?"
    Me: "he certainly has some interesting views, which he put across with real conviction"
    Employer: "but to Leave would be crazy, wouldn't it?"
    Me: "none of us can predict the future; but that's what makes life so exciting, doesn't it? Another glass of wine?"
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,591
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    Liz Truss and BSE are seriously out of their depth when they do not realise CAP is outside of the Norway model...

    https://twitter.com/MrBrexit/status/722000584488927232

    That is pretty stunning. I thought she was better than that.
    Then you were wrong. How she got a first at Oxford heavens knows but maybe General Melchett was right after all.
    One day there will be a comedy series funnier than Blackadder goes forth. One day....
    Absolute perfection. Although, personally, Blackadder II is my fave.
This discussion has been closed.