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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Worrying about exam results, looking for a job, spaced out?
    But not voting.....
    More 18-24 year olds are 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref, 48%, than in the next general election, where only 44% are certain to vote according to the latest yougov. 43% of 18-24 year olds voted at the 2015 general election according to Mori so that would mean slightly more will vote in the referendum

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
  • dyingswan said:

    Do the Leavers call it Project Fear because they fear it so much? In a binary choice it is the obvious way to win. Dan Hodges is right that it will prevail in June. It usually does.
    See AV 2011 for the fear of perpetual minority governments.
    See Quebec for the fear of economic viability.
    See Scotland for the fear of Malcolm G.
    See GE 2015 for the fear of Miliband and over spending.
    Tune in again in November for the Democrat Project Fear of Trump or Cruz.
    Like it or not, it is the way to go. Get over it. By the way, on the AV fear project have the Irish got a government yet?

    It's called that because a hitherto anonymous member of the Better Together team named the strategy as such. He must be a bit miffed that he can't take credit for possibly the most widely quoted political meme of the past 2-3 years.
    Sir Lynton and his cat would like a word.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    No

    because in a lot ofcountries we would import cars from there is already a tariff in place. if choice was an issue we are free to change the tariff.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    Project fear - Turkey is going to join the EU, the EU makes terrorist attacks more likely, the only way to save the NHS is to leave the EU, the EU wants to subsume the UK into a European superstate. And so on.

    you forgot Turkey wants to lock up your comedians
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    edited April 2016

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Worrying about exam results, looking for a job, spaced out?
    But not voting.....
    More 18-24 year olds are 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref, 48%, than in the next general election, where only 44% are certain to vote according to the latest yougov. 43% of 18-24 year olds voted at the 2015 general election according to Mori so that would mean slightly more will vote in the referendum

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
    What they say and what they actually do are two different things. Some may wake up on the day and decide to vote but are not on the register where they are living.

    Lib Dems at GE2010 thought they were heading up towards 100 seats and then woke up to find that all those voters (particularly younger) did not fulfill their promise
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Blue_rog said:

    http://thetab.com/2016/04/13/uk-prime-minister-86166

    I got Winston Churchill. Which are you?

    snap
    Me too. I suspect it is one of those where it is difficult not to get Winston Churchill.
    I got William Pitt the Younger ;)

    Cold, haughty and distant, you struggle to make time for other people. You put work above everything and you've got used to being successful from a young age. You'll die young and your three bottles of port a night habit will probably be the reason why.

    Probably driven by the fact that I'd rather be painted that papped ;)
  • @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    Andrew Neil said Turkey did not face tariffs exporting goods to the EU, which they seem to have without conceding free movement of people.
    Designed to encourage them to become a more liberal country and then they voted for Erdogan...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Worrying about exam results, looking for a job, spaced out?
    But not voting.....
    More 18-24 year olds are 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref, 48%, than in the next general election, where only 44% are certain to vote according to the latest yougov. 43% of 18-24 year olds voted at the 2015 general election according to Mori so that would mean slightly more will vote in the referendum

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
    What they say and what they actually do are two different things. Some may wake up on the day and decide to vote but are not on the register where they are living.

    Lib Dems at GE2010 thought they were heading up towards 100 seats and then woke up to find that all those voters (particularly younger) did not fulfill their promise
    Unfortunately you are unable to say that here. The 44% stated turnout of 18-24 year olds at the general election is almost exactly the same as the 43% who voted in the 2015 general election so the 48% stated turnout for the referendum looks likely to be pretty accurate and the issue of the register will have applied to the general election too so that does not change anything (not to mention the registration push going on)

    The LD point is, of course, utterly irrelevant as the figures given already give an estimated general election youth turnout under 50%
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Cameron, Blair, Kinnock and Goldman Sachs, spot the odd one out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    edited April 2016
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
    At Aberystwyth I assure you taught postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June, although the deadline for the dissertation is at the end of Semester 3 in September. Research degrees are of course year round.

    I'm very surprised to learn Warwick ends so early. Bristol and UWE are May, as is Cardiff.

    EDIT - I am of course not including Oxbridge who end obscenely early but are only a comparatively small part of HE in this country.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Oxford, cambridge, Southampton, Notts etc all gone by June 23rd.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2016
    Comment from Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report re-today's Comres Online poll-
    'ComRes still have the Conservatives ahead in the polls, but their online polls are consistently the most favourable for the Tories – the Tory lead here (and the contrast with other companies polls) are solely down to likelihood to vote weighting; before running the answers through ComRes’s turnout model Labour were ahead. The trend is exactly the same as in other polls, a deteriorating Conservative position. It’s a five point Tory lead this month, but a month ago it was nine points, a month before that fourteen points. '
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Worrying about exam results, looking for a job, spaced out?
    But not voting.....
    More 18-24 year olds are 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref, 48%, than in the next general election, where only 44% are certain to vote according to the latest yougov. 43% of 18-24 year olds voted at the 2015 general election according to Mori so that would mean slightly more will vote in the referendum

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
    What they say and what they actually do are two different things. Some may wake up on the day and decide to vote but are not on the register where they are living.

    Lib Dems at GE2010 thought they were heading up towards 100 seats and then woke up to find that all those voters (particularly younger) did not fulfill their promise
    Unfortunately you are unable to say that here. The 44% stated turnout of 18-24 year olds at the general election is almost exactly the same as the 43% who voted in the 2015 general election so the 48% stated turnout for the referendum looks likely to be pretty accurate...
    Turnout for 1975 EC referendum across the UK much lower than Oct 74 GE.
    Your 48% is a prediction by the young.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Roman villa unearthered in Wiltshire garden
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    Boaty McBoatface tops internet poll for new RRS vessel:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36064659

    I did see a very sensible suggestion that they could call the ship something else and the lifeboats BMBF and It's Bloody Cold Here, to get the best of all worlds.

    That would however require the organisers to have a sense of humour. Anyone know if they do?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Yes but we did have 1 of the 28 votes on this......
    REMAIN = Just imagine if we had 0 votes of the 27 next time the EU favours Turkey?
    LEAVE = Well it would not be our funds to the EU being used to fund foreign investment so the EU would have less room to wreak damage!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
    At Aberystwyth I assure you taught postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June, although the deadline for the dissertation is at the end of Semester 3 in September. Research degrees are of course year round.

    I'm very surprised to learn Warwick ends so early. Bristol and UWE are May, as is Cardiff.

    EDIT - I am of course not including Oxbridge who end obscenely early but are only a comparatively small part of HE in this country.
    Durham University and Imperial University end on 24th June, it is not that uncommon
    https://www.dur.ac.uk/dates/
    http://www.imperial.ac.uk/admin-services/registry/term-dates/
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    justin124 said:

    Comment from Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report re-today's Comres Online poll-
    'ComRes still have the Conservatives ahead in the polls, but their online polls are consistently the most favourable for the Tories – the Tory lead here (and the contrast with other companies polls) are solely down to likelihood to vote weighting; before running the answers through ComRes’s turnout model Labour were ahead. The trend is exactly the same as in other polls, a deteriorating Conservative position. It’s a five point Tory lead this month, but a month ago it was nine points, a month before that fourteen points. '

    Mr 124, it may be that this "deteriorating Conservative position" is down to more and more voters waking up to the fact that Cameron is in fact a PR spiv who cannot be trusted to have the County's best interests at heart let alone their own. Or that Comres are just making it up as they go along so as not to be too far out of step with the other polling companies (see run up to 2015 GE)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited April 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Worrying about exam results, looking for a job, spaced out?
    But not voting.....
    More 18-24 year olds are 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref, 48%, than in the next general election, where only 44% are certain to vote according to the latest yougov. 43% of 18-24 year olds voted at the 2015 general election according to Mori so that would mean slightly more will vote in the referendum

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
    What they say and what they actually do are two different things. Some may wake up on the day and decide to vote but are not on the register where they are living.

    Lib Dems at GE2010 thought they were heading up towards 100 seats and then woke up to find that all those voters (particularly younger) did not fulfill their promise
    Unfortunately you are unable to say that here. The 44% stated turnout of 18-24 year olds at the general election is almost exactly the same as the 43% who voted in the 2015 general election so the 48% stated turnout for the referendum looks likely to be pretty accurate...
    Turnout for 1975 EC referendum across the UK much lower than Oct 74 GE.
    Your 48% is a prediction by the young.
    Turnout for 2014 Scottish referendum significantly higher than turnout in general election in Scotland in 2015. Turnout in Oct 74 was 72% and in the referendum mid 60s so not actually such a vast difference

    The 48% prediction is for those 10/10 certain to vote, in a poll where only 44% say they are 10/10 certain to vote in the general election (and 43% did actually vote in the 2015 election so that 10/10 figure almost exactly matches the actual youth turnout at the last election)
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Certain to vote reduces some time before the decision to vote for another party. And if the labour party moved to cap care fees they would get the older people's vote. I would much prefer the money given to aid to be spent here.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    edited April 2016

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
    well that's a good one Mr L.

    I am hoping to complete on a deal next month which should bring in some newer technologies for me; that's probably a £250k deal the major attraction of which is I can improve my productivity by insourcing certain componenets and also running my plant on 2 shifts.

    My aim is not so much to take heads out (though I did remove one last year due to the down turn) but to get better sales out of the people I have. Currently I'm pitching for a reshore job from China which if I get it ( tight margins ) I will then focus on upping profit margins through automation or product redesign.

    so to answer your question nearly all new projects I undertake I will be looking to automate as much as possible. I do have some practical restraints as about 50% of my work is one offs so there are limited prospects for automating. But on the long running stuff I will take out labour content as much as possible. That allows me then to compete with Germany and China.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
    At Aberystwyth I assure you taught postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June, although the deadline for the dissertation is at the end of Semester 3 in September. Research degrees are of course year round.

    I'm very surprised to learn Warwick ends so early. Bristol and UWE are May, as is Cardiff.

    EDIT - I am of course not including Oxbridge who end obscenely early but are only a comparatively small part of HE in this country.
    Durham University and Imperial University end on 24th June, it is not that uncommon
    https://www.dur.ac.uk/dates/
    http://www.imperial.ac.uk/admin-services/registry/term-dates/
    Interesting, thank you. Don't forget though that if students don't have exams in the final week some will leave early. So unless they finish extremely late - like Warwick - the referendum may be at a time when they're not there.

    Of course, it would have been sensible to schedule it for October when most people are around and the weather's usually still OK. But this is Cameron we're talking about - hopelessly disorganised and completely unable to think about logistics.

    Btw, when I said Warwick finishes 'early' I did of course mean 'late'. Thank you for not pointing out my stupid mistake...
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June" - well you have MSc and Phd students to look after - they don't stop.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,728

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Yes but we did have 1 of the 28 votes on this......
    REMAIN = Just imagine if we had 0 votes of the 27 next time the EU favours Turkey?
    LEAVE = Well it would not be our funds to the EU being used to fund foreign investment so the EU would have less room to wreak damage!
    More to the point we didn't have a vote when this decision was made even though we were inside the EU.
  • @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Yes but we did have 1 of the 28 votes on this......
    REMAIN = Just imagine if we had 0 votes of the 27 next time the EU favours Turkey?
    LEAVE = Well it would not be our funds to the EU being used to fund foreign investment so the EU would have less room to wreak damage!
    More to the point we didn't have a vote when this decision was made even though we were inside the EU.
    but this cannot be, we are told we always have a 1 in 28 say around the table.....
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
    At Aberystwyth I assure you taught postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June, although the deadline for the dissertation is at the end of Semester 3 in September. Research degrees are of course year round.

    I'm very surprised to learn Warwick ends so early. Bristol and UWE are May, as is Cardiff.

    EDIT - I am of course not including Oxbridge who end obscenely early but are only a comparatively small part of HE in this country.
    Durham University and Imperial University end on 24th June, it is not that uncommon
    https://www.dur.ac.uk/dates/
    http://www.imperial.ac.uk/admin-services/registry/term-dates/
    ...Of course, it would have been sensible to schedule it for October when most people are around and the weather's usually still OK. But this is Cameron we're talking about - hopelessly disorganised and completely unable to think about logistics....
    "But this is Cameron we're talking about - hopelessly disorganised and completely unable to think about logistics."
    Now a what if.
    If Cameron had gone for an October vote.
    We would have not had the Scots, Welsh, London, PCC and local cllr elections fought against a backdrop of Conservative disunity. .....
    What political geniuses Cameron and Osborne are ...not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
    At Aberystwyth I assu
    Durham University and Imperial University end on 24th June, it is not that uncommon
    https://www.dur.ac.uk/dates/
    http://www.imperial.ac.uk/admin-services/registry/term-dates/
    Interesting, thank you. Don't forget though that if students don't have exams in the final week some will leave early. So unless they finish extremely late - like Warwick - the referendum may be at a time when they're not there.

    Of course, it would have been sensible to schedule it for October when most people are around and the weather's usually still OK. But this is Cameron we're talking about - hopelessly disorganised and completely unable to think about logistics.

    Btw, when I said Warwick finishes 'early' I did of course mean 'late'. Thank you for not pointing out my stupid mistake...
    If I was Cameron I would have scheduled it in September, yes. If students have gone home and don't vote on campus many parents will still have registered them to vote at home so they should still be able to vote there instead and they are more likely to be at home than if the vote was held at the same time as the local elections in early May. Yes, guess you meant late rather than early.

    Overall Yougov has 65% 9 or 10/10 certain to vote in the next general election, almost the same as the 66% who voted in election 2015. However it has 69% 9 or 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum which suggests turnout in the referendum could be 3% up on what it was at last year's general election and almost hit 70%
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,728

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Oxford, cambridge, Southampton, Notts etc all gone by June 23rd.
    As are Birmingham, Cardiff, Leeds, Liverpool, Lincoln and Newcastle. The great majority of Unis seem to end on 10th or 17th June this year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    PAW said:

    "postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June" - well you have MSc and Phd students to look after - they don't stop.

    You missed the word 'taught' off the start of that, plus 'research degrees continue all year round' off the end of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Oxford, cambridge, Southampton, Notts etc all gone by June 23rd.
    As are Birmingham, Cardiff, Leeds, Liverpool, Lincoln and Newcastle. The great majority of Unis seem to end on 10th or 17th June this year.
    I graduated from Bristol over twelve years ago, but that's certainly my recollection.

    Everyone buggers off by mid-June.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Yesterday Boris said that David Cameron will continue as PM post a leave vote and today on Marr both David Davis and Chris Grayling re-affirmed that Ken Clarke was wrong in his statement that David Cameron would be gone within 30 seconds of a leave vote and Chris Grayling went further by saying that his contacts throughout Europe would be invaluable as part of an exit team in negotiations with the EU. Is the leave campaign trying to re-assure the undecided conservatives that it is safe to vote leave and that a civil war will not follow any such vote

    I think they are just calling it as they see it. To be honest it would probably serve their cause better if they could persuade the country that voting Leave was voting to get rid of Cameron but the fact that they are not playing that card shows me that they genuinely believe Cameron can and should stay. In spite of my occasional bouts of doubt and disdain for Cameron over the EU question it is a view I share.

    Whatever they think in private, they cannot publicly say Cameron's job is on the line. They are members of the government, after all; or aspire to be, in Boris's case. In practice, how on earth could Cameron lead exit negotiations when he doesn't want to leave? It would be a recipe for permanent friction, at the very least. His authority would be utterly shot - both inside Parliament and with EU member states.

    It is in vote LEAVE's best interest for the 2/3 or more of voters that do not want Cameron, to believe that voting LEAVE will kick Cameron out because some of them will use that as their main reason to vote LEAVE. The fact that Conservative LEAVE people are saying the opposite is down to party loyalty. Admirable, but not in best interests of LEAVE.
    No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave in order to kick Cameron out when they will get Gove/Boris/Farage/IDS instead. It's a pipe dream.
    "No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave..." That is a very emphatic view. no voter, not even one or two...? You cannot be serious.
    Any evidence that there are left of centre voters motivated to vote Leave in order to "kick out Cameron" as you put it? I certainly can't find any. It's illogical, any left of centre voter is going to seen Boris/Farage/Gove/IDS as even worse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov has 65% 9 or 10/10 certain to vote in the next general election, almost the same as the 66% who voted in election 2015. However it has 69% 9 or 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum which suggests turnout in the referendum could be 3% up on what it was at last year's general election and almost hit 70%
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    Seems plausible. Isn't it slightly worrying though when we start thinking about nearly a third of eligible voters not voting as 'good' news?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    (Govt drive to register university students etc etc)

    Where will the university students be on June 23rd?
    1. At university (with the register),
    2. On holiday away (unable to vote)
    3. Or back at home? (possibly unregistered)
    Most university summer terms do not end until the beginning of July, so 1
    Are you sure Hyufd? Both universities I attended and all three that I worked in ended on or around the 1st June. I was told that was normal. You have two four month semesters- October-January and February-May - then four months off for examining/research.

    It's private schools that end on the 1st July, by tradition.
    My old alma mater, Warwick University, ends its term on 2nd July.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/study/termdates/

    I also did an MSc at Aberystwyth which ends a little earlier for undergrads but then postgrad courses tended to continue through June
    At Aberystwyth I assure you taught postgraduate programmes now finish at the start of June, although the deadline for the dissertation is at the end of Semester 3 in September. Research degrees are of course year round.

    I'm very surprised to learn Warwick ends so early. Bristol and UWE are May, as is Cardiff.

    EDIT - I am of course not including Oxbridge who end obscenely early but are only a comparatively small part of HE in this country.
    Durham University and Imperial University end on 24th June, it is not that uncommon
    https://www.dur.ac.uk/dates/
    http://www.imperial.ac.uk/admin-services/registry/term-dates/
    ...Of course, it would have been sensible to schedule it for October when most people are around and the weather's usually still OK. But this is Cameron we're talking about - hopelessly disorganised and completely unable to think about logistics....
    "But this is Cameron we're talking about - hopelessly disorganised and completely unable to think about logistics."
    Now a what if.
    If Cameron had gone for an October vote.
    We would have not had the Scots, Welsh, London, PCC and local cllr elections fought against a backdrop of Conservative disunity. .....
    What political geniuses Cameron and Osborne are ...not.
    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Blue_rog said:

    http://thetab.com/2016/04/13/uk-prime-minister-86166

    I got Winston Churchill. Which are you?

    snap
    Me too. I suspect it is one of those where it is difficult not to get Winston Churchill.
    I got William Pitt the Younger ;)

    Cold, haughty and distant, you struggle to make time for other people. You put work above everything and you've got used to being successful from a young age. You'll die young and your three bottles of port a night habit will probably be the reason why.

    Probably driven by the fact that I'd rather be painted that papped ;)
    Hi Charles - vanilla'ed you.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
    well that's a good one Mr L.

    I am hoping to complete on a deal next month which should bring in some newer technologies for me; that's probably a £250k deal the major attraction of which is I can improve my productivity by insourcing certain componenets and also running my plant on 2 shifts.

    My aim is not so much to take heads out (though I did remove one last year due to the down turn) but to get better sales out of the people I have. Currently I'm pitching for a reshore job from China which if I get it ( tight margins ) I will then focus on upping profit margins through automation or product redesign.

    so to answer your question nearly all new projects I undertake I will be looking to automate as much as possible. I do have some practical restraints as about 50% of my work is one offs so there are limited prospects for automating. But on the long running stuff I will take out labour content as much as possible. That allows me then to compete with Germany and China.
    Thanks for that, Mr B. Very interesting for me and maybe it will give some of the posters on here who are critical of UK businesses food for thought.

    By the way, the cause of my question to you was Llama Jnr who has been bending my ear lately about the advance of robotics and hw UK industry is falling behind
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    HYUFD said:



    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out

    I've always found September/early October to be quite pleasant. June was always my favourite month in Aberystwyth though - no students and no holiday makers, lovely and peaceful.

    On the other hand not so hot for referendum turnouts :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov has 65% 9 or 10/10 certain to vote in the next general election, almost the same as the 66% who voted in election 2015. However it has 69% 9 or 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum which suggests turnout in the referendum could be 3% up on what it was at last year's general election and almost hit 70%
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    Seems plausible. Isn't it slightly worrying though when we start thinking about nearly a third of eligible voters not voting as 'good' news?
    Yes but in the context of only 59% voting in election 2001 and 42% in the AV referendum and 66% in election 2015 a turnout which edges 70% would be relatively positive, yes even if it does not hit the 85% of indyref
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Yesterday Boris said that David Cameron will continue as PM post a leave vote and today on Marr both David Davis and Chris Grayling re-affirmed that Ken Clarke was wrong in his statement that David Cameron would be gone within 30 seconds of a leave vote and Chris Grayling went further by saying that his contacts throughout Europe would be invaluable as part of an exit team in negotiations with the EU. Is the leave campaign trying to re-assure the undecided conservatives that it is safe to vote leave and that a civil war will not follow any such vote

    I think they are just calling it as they see it. To be honest it would probably serve their cause better if they could persuade the country that voting Leave was voting to get rid of Cameron but the fact that they are not playing that card shows me that they genuinely believe Cameron can and should stay. In spite of my occasional bouts of doubt and disdain for Cameron over the EU question it is a view I share.

    Whatever they think in private, they cannot publicly say Cameron's job is on the line. They are members of the government, after all; or aspire to be, in Boris's case. In practice, how on earth could Cameron lead exit negotiations when he doesn't want to leave? It would be a recipe for permanent friction, at the very least. His authority would be utterly shot - both inside Parliament and with EU member states.

    It is in vote LEAVE's best interest for the 2/3 or more of voters that do not want Cameron, to believe that voting LEAVE will kick Cameron out because some of them will use that as their main reason to vote LEAVE. The fact that Conservative LEAVE people are saying the opposite is down to party loyalty. Admirable, but not in best interests of LEAVE.
    No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave in order to kick Cameron out when they will get Gove/Boris/Farage/IDS instead. It's a pipe dream.
    This is as deluded as it gets, I spent time with a leading member of Labour Leave yesterday, a charming man, just the type to revitalise Labour.

    And you mention Farage, please explain (I've asked this many times) if we vote Leave, how do we "get" Farage?

    Its only fair that Project Fear substantiate their nonsense.

    Don't you people read properly? I didn't so that no left of centre voter will vote Leave I said none will vote Leave in order to remove Cameron, which was what the comment I was responding to was claiming.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Yesterday Boris said that David Cameron will continue as PM post a leave vote and today on Marr both David Davis and Chris Grayling re-affirmed that Ken Clarke was wrong in his statement that David Cameron would be gone within 30 seconds of a leave vote and Chris Grayling went further by saying that his contacts throughout Europe would be invaluable as part of an exit team in negotiations with the EU. Is the leave campaign trying to re-assure the undecided conservatives that it is safe to vote leave and that a civil war will not follow any such vote

    I think they are just calling it as they see it. To be honest it would probably serve their cause better if they could persuade the country that voting Leave was voting to get rid of Cameron but the fact that they are not playing that card shows me that they genuinely believe Cameron can and should stay. In spite of my occasional bouts of doubt and disdain for Cameron over the EU question it is a view I share.

    Whatever they think in private, they cannot publicly say Cameron's job is on the line. They are members of the government, after all; or aspire to be, in Boris's case. In practice, how on earth could Cameron lead exit negotiations when he doesn't want to leave? It would be a recipe for permanent friction, at the very least. His authority would be utterly shot - both inside Parliament and with EU member states.

    It is in vote LEAVE's best interest for the 2/3 or more of voters that do not want Cameron, to believe that voting LEAVE will kick Cameron out because some of them will use that as their main reason to vote LEAVE. The fact that Conservative LEAVE people are saying the opposite is down to party loyalty. Admirable, but not in best interests of LEAVE.
    No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave in order to kick Cameron out when they will get Gove/Boris/Farage/IDS instead. It's a pipe dream.
    "No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave..." That is a very emphatic view. no voter, not even one or two...? You cannot be serious.
    Any evidence that there are left of centre voters motivated to vote Leave in order to "kick out Cameron" as you put it? I certainly can't find any. It's illogical, any left of centre voter is going to seen Boris/Farage/Gove/IDS as even worse.
    I am fascinated by this idea that you think either Farage or IDS are going to be anywhere near the levers of power, or its this just your own Project Leftie Fear ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov has 65% 9 or 10/10 certain to vote in the next general election, almost the same as the 66% who voted in election 2015. However it has 69% 9 or 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum which suggests turnout in the referendum could be 3% up on what it was at last year's general election and almost hit 70%
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    Seems plausible. Isn't it slightly worrying though when we start thinking about nearly a third of eligible voters not voting as 'good' news?
    Yes but in the context of 59% voting in election 2001 and 42% in the AV referendum a turnout which edges 70% would be relatively positive, yes
    Which is my point really - a rhetorical question.

    It's funny because I always find teenagers are hugely engaged with political issues, including the ones I taught in inner-city Bristol. They just don't want to engage in politics itself. Suggests there is a fundamental problem in need of addressing, but I must admit I can't think of how to go about it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov has 65% 9 or 10/10 certain to vote in the next general election, almost the same as the 66% who voted in election 2015. However it has 69% 9 or 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum which suggests turnout in the referendum could be 3% up on what it was at last year's general election and almost hit 70%
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    Seems plausible. Isn't it slightly worrying though when we start thinking about nearly a third of eligible voters not voting as 'good' news?
    Yes but in the context of 59% voting in election 2001 and 42% in the AV referendum a turnout which edges 70% would be relatively positive, yes
    Which is my point really - a rhetorical question.

    It's funny because I always find teenagers are hugely engaged with political issues, including the ones I taught in inner-city Bristol. They just don't want to engage in politics itself. Suggests there is a fundamental problem in need of addressing, but I must admit I can't think of how to go about it.
    Nationalism seems to be the answer, over 80% turned out in indyref, a referendum on who governs Scotland 'Edinburgh or London?' a referendum on who governs Britain 'Westminster or Brussels?' could well get almost 70% out!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:



    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out

    I've always found September/early October to be quite pleasant. June was always my favourite month in Aberystwyth though - no students and no holiday makers, lovely and peaceful.

    On the other hand not so hot for referendum turnouts :smiley:
    The 1983 election was held in June and had a 72% turnout, the 1987 election was also held in June and had 75%. June 2001 was not so great admittedly
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    HYUFD said:

    a referendum on who governs Britain 'Westminster or Brussels?' could well get almost 70% out!

    If they had an option for "Re-Open Nominations", possibly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    HYUFD said:

    a referendum on who governs Britain 'Westminster or Brussels?' could well get almost 70% out!

    If they had an option for "Re-Open Nominations", possibly.
    Well they are hardly going to add Chipping Parish Council!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    dyingswan said:

    Do the Leavers call it Project Fear because they fear it so much? In a binary choice it is the obvious way to win. Dan Hodges is right that it will prevail in June. It usually does.
    See AV 2011 for the fear of perpetual minority governments.
    See Quebec for the fear of economic viability.
    See Scotland for the fear of Malcolm G.
    See GE 2015 for the fear of Miliband and over spending.
    Tune in again in November for the Democrat Project Fear of Trump or Cruz.
    Like it or not, it is the way to go. Get over it. By the way, on the AV fear project have the Irish got a government yet?

    What are you wittering about you half witted cretinous loser. How does wanting independence show fear.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Yesterday Boris said that David Cameron will continue as PM post a leave vote and today on Marr both David Davis and Chris Grayling re-affirmed that Ken Clarke was wrong in his statement that David Cameron would be gone within 30 seconds of a leave vote and Chris Grayling went further by saying that his contacts throughout Europe would be invaluable as part of an exit team in negotiations with the EU. Is the leave campaign trying to re-assure the undecided conservatives that it is safe to vote leave and that a civil war will not follow any such vote

    I think they are just calling it as they see it. To be honest it would probably serve their cause better if they could persuade the country that voting Leave was voting to get rid of Cameron but the fact that they are not playing that card shows me that they genuinely believe Cameron can and should stay. In spite of my occasional bouts of doubt and disdain for Cameron over the EU question it is a view I share.

    Whatever they think in private, they cannot publicly say Cameron's job is on the line. They are members of the government, after all; or aspire to be, in Boris's case. In practice, how on earth could Cameron lead exit negotiations when he doesn't want to leave? It would be a recipe for permanent friction, at the very least. His authority would be utterly shot - both inside Parliament and with EU member states.

    It is in vote LEAVE's best interest for the 2/3 or more of voters that do not want Cameron, to believe that voting LEAVE will kick Cameron out because some of them will use that as their main reason to vote LEAVE. The fact that Conservative LEAVE people are saying the opposite is down to party loyalty. Admirable, but not in best interests of LEAVE.
    No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave in order to kick Cameron out when they will get Gove/Boris/Farage/IDS instead. It's a pipe dream.
    Oh yes they will! I shall be one of them .

    OK, poetic licence. There will not be many left of centre voting Leave primarily to kick out Cameron because they know what will follow will be worse.

    So you are genuinely making your decision on the EU referendum based on wanting to remove one Tory politician for another. doesn't make any sense at all to me but each to his own.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
    well that's a good one Mr L.

    I am hoping to complete on a deal next month which should bring in some newer technologies for me; that's probably a £250k deal the major attraction of which is I can improve my productivity by insourcing certaicompete with Germany and China.
    Thanks for that, Mr B. Very interesting for me and maybe it will give some of the posters on here who are critical of UK businesses food for thought.

    By the way, the cause of my question to you was Llama Jnr who has been bending my ear lately about the advance of robotics and hw UK industry is falling behind
    That is undoubtedly true.

    I'd suggest some reasons for that.

    This country rarely aims for volume production and volume production is where robotics work best

    Secondly we are over dependent on cheap labour - something which works against us in the long term - and therefore never make the big productivity leaps automation can bring as we kid ourselves it's not worth investing.

    There's also dickhead finance directors who think paretoing their business out of existence is clever. So we always concentrate on the easy stuff and ignore the harder but ultimately more profitable stuff.

    I get fed up listening to FDs saying pull out of markets where we are "busy fools". They never see that the path they tread will ultimately end up in them being "idle fools". The thing that stuck best with me from my time in Germany is they never let a market go and work their asses off to turn marginal products in to profitable ones. We throw the business away.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:



    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out

    I've always found September/early October to be quite pleasant. June was always my favourite month in Aberystwyth though - no students and no holiday makers, lovely and peaceful.

    On the other hand not so hot for referendum turnouts :smiley:
    The 1983 election was held in June and had a 72% turnout, the 1987 election was also held in June and had 75%. June 2001 was not so great admittedly
    If memory serves though they were early rather than late June.

    And the Scottish referendum was mid-September and beat the lot for turnout despite a proportionately larger electorate. Maybe nationalism is indeed the answer, but my guess would be it was a single issue not directly linked to party politics. Those are the things that get teenagers going if my experience is anything to judge by.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    ydoethur - sorry about that, just glancing while waiting for compilation, missed the gist.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    It is true that we don't know exactly what sort of deal we'll get if vote to Leave the EU. But we never will until it's negotiated, and we all know there will be a deal. (incidentally, by the same token many Remainers are effectively implying we can never Leave, because the risks and uncertainty are too great, which conveniently reinforces this)

    The UK will: want to remain in a European free trade area, safeguard the City, maintain access to sell financial services, repatriate law and justice powers, have controls on migration, and save contributions.
    The EU will: want an enduring and stable political solution amongst the EU, want the UK to continue to contribute money, to continue to sell goods to the UK, not to encourage anyone else to Leave, a good level of free movement access for its citizens to the UK market.

    Either way we will continue to play a strong part in Europe. We are a European country after all. Both parties (UK and EU) will want to deepen collaboration in maritime security, scientific collaborations and counter-terrorism. The EU will want something "extra" from us for this deal, and we will need to be prepared to give it to them.

    It should be based on demonstrating it is good for us and for them, and us leaving gives them a stronger, more secure Europe.

    And we wouldn't trigger Article 50 until the broad principles reflected above had been informally agreed.

    Ideally we'd have this on the table now, in which case Leave would win hands-down, but we don't, so we have to vote based upon the parameters of what we know would be on the table.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    PAW said:

    ydoethur - sorry about that, just glancing while waiting for compilation, missed the gist.

    No worries, we've all done it. It just seemed a bit strange that you would criticise me for making your own point!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:



    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out

    I've always found September/early October to be quite pleasant. June was always my favourite month in Aberystwyth though - no students and no holiday makers, lovely and peaceful.

    On the other hand not so hot for referendum turnouts :smiley:
    The 1983 election was held in June and had a 72% turnout, the 1987 election was also held in June and had 75%. June 2001 was not so great admittedly
    If memory serves though they were early rather than late June.

    And the Scottish referendum was mid-September and beat the lot for turnout despite a proportionately larger electorate. Maybe nationalism is indeed the answer, but my guess would be it was a single issue not directly linked to party politics. Those are the things that get teenagers going if my experience is anything to judge by.
    Yes and what is EU ref, a single issue not directly linked to party politics!
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Yes but we did have 1 of the 28 votes on this......
    REMAIN = Just imagine if we had 0 votes of the 27 next time the EU favours Turkey?
    LEAVE = Well it would not be our funds to the EU being used to fund foreign investment so the EU would have less room to wreak damage!
    Yes, this is why the 'other' traditional argument for EU membership is now an empty one e.g. we can stop the EU becoming a threat to us by being inside.

    With QMW, no vetos and an extreme activist ECJ that argument simply has no force any longer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Yesterday Boris said that David Cameron will continue as PM post a leave vote and today on Marr both David Davis and Chris Grayling re-affirmed that Ken Clarke was wrong in his statement that David Cameron would be gone within 30 seconds of a leave vote and Chris Grayling went further by saying that his contacts throughout Europe would be invaluable as part of an exit team in negotiations with the EU. Is the leave campaign trying to re-assure the undecided conservatives that it is safe to vote leave and that a civil war will not follow any such vote

    I think they are just calling it as they see it. To be honest it would probably serve their cause better if they could persuade the country that voting Leave was voting to get rid of Cameron but the fact that they are not playing that card shows me that they genuinely believe Cameron can and should stay. In spite of my occasional bouts of doubt and disdain for Cameron over the EU question it is a view I share.

    Whatever they think in private, they cannot publicly say Cameron's job is on the line. They are members of the government, after all; or aspire to be, in Boris's case. In practice, how on earth could Cameron lead exit negotiations when he doesn't want to leave? It would be a recipe for permanent friction, at the very least. His authority would be utterly shot - both inside Parliament and with EU member states.

    It is in vote LEAVE's best interest for the 2/3 or more of voters that do not want Cameron, to believe that voting LEAVE will kick Cameron out because some of them will use that as their main reason to vote LEAVE. The fact that Conservative LEAVE people are saying the opposite is down to party loyalty. Admirable, but not in best interests of LEAVE.
    No left of centre voter is going to vote Leave in order to kick Cameron out when they will get Gove/Boris/Farage/IDS instead. It's a pipe dream.
    Oh yes they will! I shall be one of them .

    OK, poetic licence. There will not be many left of centre voting Leave primarily to kick out Cameron because they know what will follow will be worse.

    So you are genuinely making your decision on the EU referendum based on wanting to remove one Tory politician for another. doesn't make any sense at all to me but each to his own.
    Some may calculate a "worse" Tory leader makes Corbyn in GE2020 a shoe-in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:



    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out

    I've always found September/early October to be quite pleasant. June was always my favourite month in Aberystwyth though - no students and no holiday makers, lovely and peaceful.

    On the other hand not so hot for referendum turnouts :smiley:
    The 1983 election was held in June and had a 72% turnout, the 1987 election was also held in June and had 75%. June 2001 was not so great admittedly
    If memory serves though they were early rather than late June.

    And the Scottish referendum was mid-September and beat the lot for turnout despite a proportionately larger electorate. Maybe nationalism is indeed the answer, but my guess would be it was a single issue not directly linked to party politics. Those are the things that get teenagers going if my experience is anything to judge by.
    Yes and what is EU ref, a single issue not directly linked to party politics!
    That's what it should be. But look how mired in party politics all the reporting is.

    Something that could have fired up politics for a generation, as in Scotland, is having instead a marginal effect because of talks about splits, power struggles and personality clashes.

    It's a desperate shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:



    Mind you trying to turnout voters on a wet October evening after work would not be easy either at least in June the sun is more likely to be out

    I've always found September/early October to be quite pleasant. June was always my favourite month in Aberystwyth though - no students and no holiday makers, lovely and peaceful.

    On the other hand not so hot for referendum turnouts :smiley:
    The 1983 election was held in June and had a 72% turnout, the 1987 election was also held in June and had 75%. June 2001 was not so great admittedly
    If memory serves though they were early rather than late June.

    And the Scottish referendum was mid-September and beat the lot for turnout despite a proportionately larger electorate. Maybe nationalism is indeed the answer, but my guess would be it was a single issue not directly linked to party politics. Those are the things that get teenagers going if my experience is anything to judge by.
    Yes and what is EU ref, a single issue not directly linked to party politics!
    That's what it should be. But look how mired in party politics all the reporting is.

    Something that could have fired up politics for a generation, as in Scotland, is having instead a marginal effect because of talks about splits, power struggles and personality clashes.

    It's a desperate shame.
    Given the prominent role of the SNP, the Salmond and Darling and Cameron and Brown clashes, the splits within Scottish Labour etc I would not say Scotland was exactly immune to what you say either
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
    well that's a good one Mr L.

    I am hoping to complete on a deal next month which should bring in some newer technologies for me; that's probably a £250k deal the major attraction of which is I can improve my productivity by insourcing certaicompete with Germany and China.
    Thanks for that, Mr B. Very interesting for me and maybe it will give some of the posters on here who are critical of UK businesses food for thought.

    By the way, the cause of my question to you was Llama Jnr who has been bending my ear lately about the advance of robotics and hw UK industry is falling behind
    That is undoubtedly true.

    I'd suggest some reasons for that.

    This country rarely aims for volume production and volume production is where robotics work best

    Secondly we are over dependent on cheap labour - something which works against us in the long term - and therefore never make the big productivity leaps automation can bring as we kid ourselves it's not worth investing.

    There's also dickhead finance directors who think paretoing their business out of existence is clever. So we always concentrate on the easy stuff and ignore the harder but ultimately more profitable stuff.

    I get fed up listening to FDs saying pull out of markets where we are "busy fools". They never see that the path they tread will ultimately end up in them being "idle fools". The thing that stuck best with me from my time in Germany is they never let a market go and work their asses off to turn marginal products in to profitable ones. We throw the business away.
    I recognise this on UK major projects as well.

    Focussing on price, and on cutting what can be cut, not on value or potential.
  • NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790

    @Alanbrooke - the restriction of choice comes from the imposition of tariffs because tariffs raise prices.

    Didn't Ford move some of the manufacturing out of the UK to Turkey? That is from within the EU to outside of the EU. Tariffs were obviously a problem.
    they were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.
    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
    well that's a good one Mr L.

    I am hoping to complete on a deal next month which should bring in some newer technologies for me; that's probably a £250k deal the major attraction of which is I can improve my productivity by insourcing certaicompete with Germany and China.
    Thanks for that, Mr B. Very interesting for me and maybe it will give some of the posters on here who are critical of UK businesses food for thought.

    By the way, the cause of my question to you was Llama Jnr who has been bending my ear lately about the advance of robotics and hw UK industry is falling behind
    That is undoubtedly true.

    I'd suggest some reasons for that.

    This country rarely aims for volume production and volume production is where robotics work best

    Secondly we are over dependent on cheap labour - something which works against us in the long term - and therefore never make the big productivity leaps automation can bring as we kid ourselves it's not worth investing.

    There's also dickhead finance directors who think paretoing their business out of existence is clever. So we always concentrate on the easy stuff and ignore the harder but ultimately more profitable stuff.

    I get fed up listening to FDs saying pull out of markets where we are "busy fools". They never see that the path they tread will ultimately end up in them being "idle fools". The thing that stuck best with me from my time in Germany is they never let a market go and work their asses off to turn marginal products in to profitable ones. We throw the business away.
    I recognise this on UK major projects as well.

    Focussing on price, and on cutting what can be cut, not on value or potential.

    The perennial British disease. We are our own worst enemies. Brexit won't change that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    HYUFD said:

    a referendum on who governs Britain 'Westminster or Brussels?' could well get almost 70% out!

    If they had an option for "Re-Open Nominations", possibly.
    "Who Governs Britain" as an election slogan didn't work well last time it was used. The electorates answere was "Not you" to the questioner!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    HYUFD said:

    a referendum on who governs Britain 'Westminster or Brussels?' could well get almost 70% out!

    If they had an option for "Re-Open Nominations", possibly.
    "Who Governs Britain" as an election slogan didn't work well last time it was used. The electorates answere was "Not you" to the questioner!
    Except ironically if it was Leave it would be 'you' to Cameron and not Juncker, despite Cameron leading Remain
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,932

    They were less of a problem after the EU subsidised Ford to move production out of the UK\EU to Turkey.

    Once again the EU safeguarding UK manufacturing jobs.

    Glad you are on Mr. Brooke as I wanted to ask you two questions. You are I think a "metal basher" by trade, how much investment are you planning to make in automation over the next ten years and how many jobs do you think you will free-up as a consequence?
    well that's a good one Mr L.

    I am hoping to complete on a deal next month which should bring in some newer technologies for me; that's probably a £250k deal the major attraction of which is I can improve my productivity by insourcing certaicompete with Germany and China.
    Thanks for that, Mr B. Very interesting for me and maybe it will give some of the posters on here who are critical of UK businesses food for thought.

    By the way, the cause of my question to you was Llama Jnr who has been bending my ear lately about the advance of robotics and hw UK industry is falling behind
    That is undoubtedly true.

    I'd suggest some reasons for that.

    This country rarely aims for volume production and volume production is where robotics work best

    Secondly we are over dependent on cheap labour - something which works against us in the long term - and therefore never make the big productivity leaps automation can bring as we kid ourselves it's not worth investing.

    There's also dickhead finance directors who think paretoing their business out of existence is clever. So we always concentrate on the easy stuff and ignore the harder but ultimately more profitable stuff.

    I get fed up listening to FDs saying pull out of markets where we are "busy fools". They never see that the path they tread will ultimately end up in them being "idle fools". The thing that stuck best with me from my time in Germany is they never let a market go and work their asses off to turn marginal products in to profitable ones. We throw the business away.
    I really wish I had more time to join this interesting discussion but I have family matters to attend to but a few brief points:

    The finance people are often right about being 'busy fools'.

    You can 'work your ass off' all you want but if you haven't got the quality of manager specifically and workforce generally it wont work.

    Secondly who will get the benefits of you working your ass off ? If its the fatcats at the top then you really are a fool to do so.

    This all sounds a bit defeatist but I fear that's the reality of the British working experience at the moment.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I think the big killer for firms is that they are not responsive. So a new product or an upgrade of a product is proposed, there is a certain window where if developed money could be made. The window closes when all the suppliers have something similar. Now you need to develop the product or be uncompetitive but there is no extra money for doing so.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    a referendum on who governs Britain 'Westminster or Brussels?' could well get almost 70% out!

    If they had an option for "Re-Open Nominations", possibly.
    "Who Governs Britain" as an election slogan didn't work well last time it was used. The electorates answere was "Not you" to the questioner!
    Except ironically if it was Leave it would be 'you' to Cameron and not Juncker, despite Cameron leading Remain
    I suspect many Leavers assume that, in the event of Leave, it wouldn’t be.
This discussion has been closed.