Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Lefties hate DC & GO because they trounced the Lefties in GE2015.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Possibly the metropolitan elite that you socialise with, but not the NHS workers that i socialise with.
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
I have a Northern Ireland Protestant friend who genuinely does believe the EU is a papist plot to return Protestant countries to the fold.
When he first explained this to me - after three pints of beer and half a bottle of Scotch - I assume he was joking. He wasn't. He's deadly serious. His Leave vote is a vote against the Papacy.
DUP/TUV/UKIP voters will be about 98% in favour of Leave. I remember once listening to Rev. William Mcrea explain that EU civil servants carried the Mark of the Beast.
Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.
Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.
It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.
Remain have no money to buy votes.
Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.
I wonder how economists' models would look if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?
What would our gross contribution look like if we joined EFTA?
Or are you hoping nobody notices that if we go up the route the Tory Leavers are certain to opt for that we will still be making a huge contribution to the EU as well as accepting freedom of movement.?
EFTA contributions to the EU are based on calculation of GDP. Norway pays about £500 million annually to the EU via the EEA. The UK economy is about 5.3 times bigger than the Norwegian economy so our total net payment should be around £2.6 billion a year.
Between a third and a quarter of our current net payment. Or about a sixth of the amount of money we give to the EU to spend.
I think that's spot on.
As it happens, I think we could organise an arrangement like the Swiss, where we pay a smaller 'upfront' but where we allow the EU to collect customs duties on things transhipped through Rotterdam.
That would have the advantage of receding as and when we sign our own free trade deals, and making the headline smaller.
Edit to add; Norway pays about £80m into an EU international development fund, rather than administering its own I believe. It may be possible to 'take that out' the calculation.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eurosceptic loons is a real threat.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
Yes, I know. By people like you who COMMENT ON POLITICALBETTING.COM
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
I have a Northern Ireland Protestant friend who genuinely does believe the EU is a papist plot to return Protestant countries to the fold.
When he first explained this to me - after three pints of beer and half a bottle of Scotch - I assume he was joking. He wasn't. He's deadly serious. His Leave vote is a vote against the Papacy.
DUP/TUV/UKIP voters will be about 98% in favour of Leave. I remember once listening to Rev. William Mcrea explain that EU civil servants carried the Mark of the Beast.
Oh yes, it's a very sincerely held view over there. The third person at the event - an orthodox Jew who lives in Belfast - looked at me and make a 'completely mad' signal with his fingers against his head. I refrained from pointing out that his fellow religionists held some pretty loops views too.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
TBH, I don't think Lefties favour one Tory over another. The big risk from the point of view of Remain is that left wing voters just think "who cares?" and stay at home.
As an aside, if you really hate the EU and wish its ultimate demise, EFTA/EEA is a much better destination than CO. After all, going to EFTA/EEA and retaining access to the single market is much less scary to a Sweden or to a Denmark than going it completely alone. Us making a success of EFTA/EEA would be quite likely to spark defections of non-EZ states, in a way CO wouldn't.
Robert, do you have feel for what our EU contribution might be if we joined EFTA/EEA? Ballpark, 50%, 10%? Apologies if it's far more complicated than that. I am also assuming that if we were not in the EU none of our contribution would be spent in the UK, is that correct?
I think the base bill would be pretty small, probably a little over 1bn. Norway pays 300m in round terms and we have three times their GDP which it is based up. However that number can go up quite fast depending on how many EU projects you opt into, and Norway has opted into most of the because their elite would rather be in the EU, its just their voters don't agree.
I think you are underestimating that. I was using the 2013 figures for GDP which show us to have a GDP 5.28x bigger than Norway.
That said I was also using the Norway contribution of £500 million a year which includes some voluntary contributions made outside of the strict EFTA membership. Norway basically has a lot of money and likes to use some of it to help other countries in Europe via cohesion initiatives run by the EU. This is an optional not a required contribution.
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
I have a Northern Ireland Protestant friend who genuinely does believe the EU is a papist plot to return Protestant countries to the fold.
When he first explained this to me - after three pints of beer and half a bottle of Scotch - I assume he was joking. He wasn't. He's deadly serious. His Leave vote is a vote against the Papacy.
Watch him disappear in a puff of smoke when you tell him it was a "papal plot" that brought King Billy to the throne...
As an aside, if you really hate the EU and wish its ultimate demise, EFTA/EEA is a much better destination than CO. After all, going to EFTA/EEA and retaining access to the single market is much less scary to a Sweden or to a Denmark than going it completely alone. Us making a success of EFTA/EEA would be quite likely to spark defections of non-EZ states, in a way CO wouldn't.
Robert, do you have feel for what our EU contribution might be if we joined EFTA/EEA? Ballpark, 50%, 10%? Apologies if it's far more complicated than that. I am also assuming that if we were not in the EU none of our contribution would be spent in the UK, is that correct?
I think the base bill would be pretty small, probably a little over 1bn. Norway pays 300m in round terms and we have three times their GDP which it is based up. However that number can go up quite fast depending on how many EU projects you opt into, and Norway has opted into most of the because their elite would rather be in the EU, its just their voters don't agree.
I think you are underestimating that. I was using the 2013 figures for GDP which show us to have a GDP 5.28x bigger than Norway.
That said I was also using the Norway contribution of £500 million a year which includes some voluntary contributions made outside of the strict EFTA membership. Norway basically has a lot of money and likes to use some of it to help other countries in Europe via cohesion initiatives run by the EU. This is an optional not a required contribution.
Yes, that's the £80m I referred to. You might get it down to £2bn, but I don't think it's going any lower.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
TBH, I don't think Lefties favour one Tory over another. The big risk from the point of view of Remain is that left wing voters just think "who cares?" and stay at home.
If Facebook is anything to go by, it isn't probably, the one thing that exercises the Lefties about the EU is TTIP, but, of course, they don't make the link.
Not sure how much traction there is for Vote Leave there, but worth considering.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
Moreover, even if Gove is *hated* and recognised by 99% of the British people and all NHS workers, and to be fair I do hear "Michael Gove" discussed out loud every day in bus-stops, pubs, garden sheds, hospital wards - indeed just the other day a tramp on Camden Road personally denounced Michael Gove's reformist ideas on the national curriculum - even if this is true, the chance to SACK David Cameron and George Osborne with one vote AND throw the entire Tory party into vicious turmoil, might, I think, be a little bit more tempting to the average motivated or unmotivated lefty, than the possibility that the same Michael Gove might get a pay increase
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
TBH, I don't think Lefties favour one Tory over another. The big risk from the point of view of Remain is that left wing voters just think "who cares?" and stay at home.
If Facebook is anything to go by, it isn't probably, the one thing that exercises the Lefties about the EU is TTIP, but, of course, they don't make the link.
Not sure how much traction there is for Vote Leave there, but worth considering.
The irony is that they don't understand TTIP at all.
The poll saddens me to see people value so lowly their nation's sovereignty.
I wonder what the price would be for total surrender of sovereignty? £249?
"Sovereignty" means b*gger all to most voters, they are far more concerned with more mundane issues. I genuinely believe most people would go with whatever was best for them and their families and wouldn't be much concerned with whether it was because of decisions made in Brussels or London. I suspect most people would readily become the 51st state of America and be ruled from Washington if it meant an improved standard of living.
IMHO, you're completely wrong about that. No big political change occurs because people think it will make them £2 a week better off.
In every GE the conventional wisdom is that it's the economy that wins/loses it, I suspect the referendum will be no different, in that economic issues will be paramount,as they were in the Sindyref .The number of voters exercised by "sovereignty" will be a small minority.
If "sovereignty" was a big concern then the EU would not have registered as such a low priority with voters for years. Immigration is the issue the has galvanised the debate and stirred interest - how it pans out once voters realise that Brexit is unlikely to significantly affect immigration is anybody's guess. Leave could, I suppose, follow SeanT's suggested strategy and lie but I doubt that's sustainable for the next 2 months.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
TBH, I don't think Lefties favour one Tory over another. The big risk from the point of view of Remain is that left wing voters just think "who cares?" and stay at home.
If Facebook is anything to go by, it isn't probably, the one thing that exercises the Lefties about the EU is TTIP, but, of course, they don't make the link.
Not sure how much traction there is for Vote Leave there, but worth considering.
The irony is that they don't understand TTIP at all.
What would our gross contribution look like if we joined EFTA?
Or are you hoping nobody notices that if we go up the route the Tory Leavers are certain to opt for that we will still be making a huge contribution to the EU as well as accepting freedom of movement.?
What would our contribution look like if we struck bi-laterals with the US, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Korea and Australia?
How about if we joined BEFTA? That's a new bloc - EFTA plus Blighty which accepts all EFTA trade deals except the EU?
Model the economic effect of the UK keeping it's contribution and handing it to each and every one of it's citizens. Over a cycle of, say three years, 2018-2020 - it's a stimulus of £30bn +. How does that compare, size-wise, to Darling/Brown in 2008?
Fine except you know and I know we are going to opt for EFTA so the rest are red herrings and obfuscation. . I'll take it then that you don't know or won't say.
Interesting to see that 9% of kippers would shift to Remain for £100 per year.
Not very solid support at all for what I would have thought would be the hardcore. The economics are going to swing it methinks.
It's fabulous for Leave. It shows that votes can be bought.
Remain have no money to buy votes.
Leave have £18bn in gross contributions to the EU to play with.
I wonder how economists' models would look if that £18bn was pushed into UK residents' pockets. What would be the prospects for domestic growth and jobs?
What would our gross contribution look like if we joined EFTA?
Or are you hoping nobody notices that if we go up the route the Tory Leavers are certain to opt for that we will still be making a huge contribution to the EU as well as accepting freedom of movement.?
EFTA contributions to the EU are based on calculation of GDP. Norway pays about £500 million annually to the EU via the EEA. The UK economy is about 5.3 times bigger than the Norwegian economy so our total net payment should be around £2.6 billion a year.
Between a third and a quarter of our current net payment. Or about a sixth of the amount of money we give to the EU to spend.
I think that's spot on.
As it happens, I think we could organise an arrangement like the Swiss, where we pay a smaller 'upfront' but where we allow the EU to collect customs duties on things transhipped through Rotterdam.
That would have the advantage of receding as and when we sign our own free trade deals, and making the headline smaller.
Edit to add; Norway pays about £80m into an EU international development fund, rather than administering its own I believe. It may be possible to 'take that out' the calculation.
It's an excellent potential deal which is why the government and various spinners have been trying so desperately to rubbish it from the start. You were right early on - if this was what we went for I think it would probably stick.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
TBH, I don't think Lefties favour one Tory over another. The big risk from the point of view of Remain is that left wing voters just think "who cares?" and stay at home.
If Facebook is anything to go by, it isn't probably, the one thing that exercises the Lefties about the EU is TTIP, but, of course, they don't make the link.
Not sure how much traction there is for Vote Leave there, but worth considering.
The irony is that they don't understand TTIP at all.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
My brother hates Gove. He's not sure why, but he was on the NUT automatic mailing list and he'd get an emailed newsletter each week telling him to hate Gove.
He's no longer a teacher. He took redundancy last May and sent nearly all of it on cheap Vladivar vodka from the Spar. Hell of a shape on him. Sad alcoholic mess; and only 36 too.
Anyway, my brother has never had an original political thought in his life and probably couldn't name three front benchers. But he hates Gove. I'd guess the other thirty thousand people on the mailing list think - or fail to think - along the same lines too. Crass union-sponsored anti-Tory groupthink. But effective, as has been proven with my simple-minded, drunk brother.
The poll saddens me to see people value so lowly their nation's sovereignty.
I wonder what the price would be for total surrender of sovereignty? £249?
"Sovereignty" means b*gger all to most voters, they are far more concerned with more mundane issues. I genuinely believe most people would go with whatever was best for them and their families and wouldn't be much concerned with whether it was because of decisions made in Brussels or London. I suspect most people would readily become the 51st state of America and be ruled from Washington if it meant an improved standard of living.
IMHO, you're completely wrong about that. No big political change occurs because people think it will make them £2 a week better off.
In every GE the conventional wisdom is that it's the economy that wins/loses it, I suspect the referendum will be no different, in that economic issues will be paramount,as they were in the Sindyref .The number of voters exercised by "sovereignty" will be a small minority.
If "sovereignty" was a big concern then the EU would not have registered as such a low priority with voters for years. Immigration is the issue the has galvanised the debate and stirred interest - how it pans out once voters realise that Brexit is unlikely to significantly affect immigration is anybody's guess. Leave could, I suppose, follow SeanT's suggested strategy and lie but I doubt that's sustainable for the next 2 months.
Economic issues weren't paramount in the Scottish referendum. Most voters were passionately committed either to Scottish independence, or to saving the United Kingdom.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
I think he's fantastic, both on prisons and schools.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
Here you go. I was bang on with my 40%. Just 40% of voters CAN EVEN NAME AND RECOGNISE Michael Gove after seeing a photo.
And how many of that 40% will know what he does, and remember why they hate him?
It's the Smithsonian Fallacy again. Remember I coined this idea several years ago. The Smithsonian Fallacy is the erroneous idea that the average voter has anything like the interest in, or knowledge of, British politics, as compared to a commenter on pb.com
You're wrong about Gove, but right in general. FWIW once (2013) did a study for work about search frequency of politicians. Very few cut through, fewer than 10. If I remember right Clegg had a similar profile to Kim Jong Il. Govt payroll is akin to witness protection. FWIW Gove had presence , I assume because he was on the telly once and that teachers weren't afraid to share their views.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
Here you go. I was bang on with my 40%. Just 40% of voters CAN EVEN NAME AND RECOGNISE Michael Gove after seeing a photo.
And how many of that 40% will know what he does, and remember why they hate him?
It's the Smithsonian Fallacy again. Remember I coined this idea several years ago. The Smithsonian Fallacy is the erroneous idea that the average voter has anything like the interest in, or knowledge of, British politics, as compared to a commenter on pb.com
Indeed.
The best example of this was the 2005 GE. Just before election day, after Charles Kennedy had been on the news every single day for almost a month, well under 50% of people could even recognise him.
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
The East Europeans don't have a vote.
But all the rest of the congregation that worships with them do.
(Though Maltese, Irish and Cypriots all can vote in this referendum)
Cypriots are Orthodox, not Catholic - and they loathe the Turks with a passion that is barely imaginable to the average Briton.
The Irish are often to the right of the British where immigration is concerned.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Utter bollocks because your anecdotal evidence trumps everybody elses I suppose. I am in contact with loads of Labour people having not long left the party and I think you are going to be sorely disappointed if you think many are going to vote Leave on the basis of disliking Cameron. Most have an equal if not greater disliking of Johnson and Farage, It will not be a factor for a single person I have discussed it with. .
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
My brother hates Gove. He's not sure why, but he was on the NUT automatic mailing list and he'd get an emailed newsletter each week telling him to hate Gove.
He's no longer a teacher. He took redundancy last May and sent neatly all of it on cheap Vladivar vodka from the Spar. Hell of a shape on him. Sad alcoholic mess. And only 36 too.
Anyway, my brother has never had a political thought in his life and probably couldn't name three front benches. But he hates Gove. I'd guess the other thirty thousand people on the mailing list think - or fail to think - along the same lines too. Crass Union groupthink. But effective, as has been proven with my simple-minded, drunk brother.
Yet it is wrong. See the data.
This referendum will be decided by voters who have virtually no clue about politics. I know this is scary (it scares me, to be honest) but it is the case.
I think this is why LEAVE is level pegging despite facing seriously stronger opposition. LEAVE has a better story. People understand stories, they don't understand or like politics.
Tens of millions of voters probably don't even know there's going to be a referendum.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
My brother hates Gove. He's not sure why, but he was on the NUT automatic mailing list and he'd get an emailed newsletter each week telling him to hate Gove.
He's no longer a teacher. He took redundancy last May and sent neatly all of it on cheap Vladivar vodka from the Spar. Hell of a shape on him. Sad alcoholic mess. And only 36 too.
Anyway, my brother has never had a political thought in his life and probably couldn't name three front benches. But he hates Gove. I'd guess the other thirty thousand people on the mailing list think - or fail to think - along the same lines too. Crass Union groupthink. But effective, as has been proven with my simple-minded, drunk brother.
Yet it is wrong. See the data.
This referendum will be decided by voters who have virtually no clue about politics. I know this is scary (it scares me, to be honest) but it is the case.
I think this is why LEAVE is level pegging despite facing seriously stronger opposition. LEAVE has a better story. People understand stories, they don't understand or like politics.
One good story will beat hundreds of pages of data.
I'm voting leave, and Gove's article inspired me more than any other piece of politicking I've seen in the IN/OUT battle since. It was hard to argue with a single word he wrote. .
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
A sad tale. I had an uncle who did much the same. Was it the drink that caused his redundancy or the redundancy that caused the drink? It was the former with my uncle, who wrecked two families for two decades before drying out. My father still barely speaks to him.
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
What utter bollocks. The Lefties I know HATE Cameron and Osborne ("just too punchable" someone described them to me, recently). They epitomise the loathed and gilded Etonian elite.
The fact Brexit would mean the rich Tory PM and the rich Tory Chancellor would have to resign in shame would wholly outweigh the minimal irritation that someone called Gove *might* replace them (and this is unlikely anyway).
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Utter bollocks because your anecdotal evidence trumps everybody elses I suppose. I am in contact with loads of Labour people having not long left the party and I think you are going to be sorely disappointed if you think many are going to vote Leave on the basis of disliking Cameron. Most have an equal if not greater disliking of Johnson and Farage, It will not be a factor for a single person I have discussed it with. .
"having not long left the party"
Yes. You're a typical voter.
CHORTLE
Is that meant to be some sort of meaningful response?
Does Ken Clarke think this stuff is actually helpful? Or is he now so old and gaga he doesn't realise this stuff simply shunts 1m Tory-hating lefties towards LEAVE?
I don't think so. The lefties that I know hate IDS, Gove and generic 'Tories' more than they hate Cameron. They do not want to swap Cameron for someone worse.
That voters might just want to kick Tories in the nuts is a big risk for REMAIN (as they know). Ken Clarke has just added to that risk. The man is a fool, who has lost his political antennae.
Gove is far less popular than vanilla Cameron. The idea of being stuck with a bunch of Eueosceptic loons is a real threat.
Duh. But only to relative political sophisticates like you. How many ordinary voters even know who Michael Gove IS? 40%? 20%? How many remotely care?
What many lefties will see is a chance to punch Cameron and Osborne in the face. They DO know Cameron.
Gove is hated.
My brother hates Gove. He's not sure why, but he was on the NUT automatic mailing list and he'd get an emailed newsletter each week telling him to hate Gove.
He's no longer a teacher. He took redundancy last May and sent neatly all of it on cheap Vladivar vodka from the Spar. Hell of a shape on him. Sad alcoholic mess. And only 36 too.
Anyway, my brother has never had a political thought in his life and probably couldn't name three front benches. But he hates Gove. I'd guess the other thirty thousand people on the mailing list think - or fail to think - along the same lines too. Crass Union groupthink. But effective, as has been proven with my simple-minded, drunk brother.
Yet it is wrong. See the data.
This referendum will be decided by voters who have virtually no clue about politics. I know this is scary (it scares me, to be honest) but it is the case.
I think this is why LEAVE is level pegging despite facing seriously stronger opposition. LEAVE has a better story. People understand stories, they don't understand or like politics.
Tens of millions of voters probably don't even know there's going to be a referendum.
My present girlfriend is smart and clued up and engaged on social media, she uses words like "patriarchy" without irony, and she's young and passionate about stuff - and she is barely aware there is a vote. I doubt she is registered.
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
The East Europeans don't have a vote.
But all the rest of the congregation that worships with them do.
(Though Maltese, Irish and Cypriots all can vote in this referendum)
Yeah. This vote will be swung by the Maltese and Cypriots.
Next.
There are over 5 million Catholics in the UK and for reasons best known to themselves they to listen to their religious leaders than the average punter. It's not a game changer but either is it entirely insignificant.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
The graph above captures a simple truth. Tory voters , by definition, are the most selfish. Labour voters, the least.
Initially I thought that, but actually I think we are seeing a ceiling effect.
For example if 90% of Kippers are planning to vote leave then potentially 90% can shift to Remain for £100. If only 25% of Labour voters are thinking of voting Leave then only 25% can potentially change their mind for the cash.
It does show that even kipper Leavers are not immune to the Stronger In campaign though.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
This referendum will be decided by voters who have virtually no clue about politics. I know this is scary (it scares me, to be honest) but it is the case.
I think this is why LEAVE is level pegging despite facing seriously stronger opposition. LEAVE has a better story. People understand stories, they don't understand or like politics.
People understand their lives.
Plumbers, carpenters, electricians etc don't need a politician's opinion to tell them what they think of immigration and some daft Yougov survey about being £100 a year worse/better off when their hourly rate has fallen, leaving them £100-£200 down every week.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
My standard approach with not very committed vague "dunno, probably IN" work based lefties, is to pitch the line"Yay! You're voting to Save Dave! Well done." and tell them him and Osbo will be out on their arses pronto if they do not get their way in the Ref.
To the motivated the spoils,. Drive that turnout down!
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
A sad tale. I had an uncle who did much the same. Was it the drink that caused his redundancy or the redundancy that caused the drink? It was the former with my uncle, who wrecked two families for two decades before drying out. My father still barely speaks to him.
Thank you! The drink came first and he was lucky (believe me - he was going into work in some states that were just beyond - it's extraordinary he kept his job) that he was allowed to choose such a sweetheart deal.
I have mixed feelings about his alcoholism. I'm 38 and he's 36 and we were outside half (me) and scrum half (him), so we've been through some mighty scraps on the same side. So I have some sympathy with his 'illness'and would prefer him to never drink again. But alcoholics are so good at exhausting your patience and making you repeatedly want to punch a hole in their head that I find it hard to speak sympathetically. He has been a nightmare for my mother (living back at home too) as she has struggled to cope with my Dad and the early Alzheimers. But he's usually too drunk, pigheaded and arrogant to see the damage he's done.
He's one of those drinkers who drinks to fall over. He doesn't enjoy it or socialise, he'll nail a bottle of vodka and 50mg of valium and collapse. He's constantly in A&E.
And then he'll recover. He'll have eight weeks off the booze and talk to you as though it wasn't all that bad; no big deal... people making a mountain out of a mole hill!
Then one half pint and bang, he'll spend a hellish four weeks wrecked, unconscious, in hospitals, arrested, covered in black eyes and bruises. It's bonkers.
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
The East Europeans don't have a vote.
But all the rest of the congregation that worships with them do.
(Though Maltese, Irish and Cypriots all can vote in this referendum)
Cypriots are Orthodox, not Catholic - and they loathe the Turks with a passion that is barely imaginable to the average Briton.
Probably because the northern half of their island is still occupied by Turkey after more than 40 years?
My standard approach with not very committed vague "dunno, probably IN" work based lefties, is to pitch the line"Yay! You're voting to Save Dave! Well done." and tell them him and Osbo will be out on their arses pronto if they do not get their way in the Ref.
To the motivated the spoils,. Drive that turnout down!
Nah. This is in jest, but will be a meme later on: wipe that smug smile off his face:
The smallest known measurement in the physical universe is this amount of sympathy I have for Tories complaining Osborne is dishonest.
See. You prove my point.
Some geeky lefties might reserve a unique if weird hatred for adopted comp-boy Michael Gove, but, let's face it, it is the public school millionaire and Chancellor Geo Osborne and Etonian squillionare and prime minister David Cameron who invoke real fury and envy and loathing, the kind of contempt that might swing a swing voter in the referendum.
I'm waiting for Tony Blair to warn us all of the dangers of Brexit.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
He can only be dishonest if he is stating a lie. He has been at the IMF in Washington today and this appears to have come out of the meeting. He is entitled to his view and that is not dishonest. I would say as a member of the conservative party that I believe he needs to be moved immediately following the referendum as he has made too many mistakes recently and he will not progress to PM
The poll saddens me to see people value so lowly their nation's sovereignty.
I wonder what the price would be for total surrender of sovereignty? £249?
"Sovereignty" means b*gger all to most voters, they are far more concerned with more mundane issues. I genuinely believe most people would go with whatever was best for them and their families and wouldn't be much concerned with whether it was because of decisions made in Brussels or London. I suspect most people would readily become the 51st state of America and be ruled from Washington if it meant an improved standard of living.
One of our Patrimonials has just come out for Leave, based on the sovereignty argument. As he was close enough to Heath to almost become a Cabinet-ranked GOAT before duty called him in other directions, I found this somewhat surprising.
Excellent news. But I'm not surprised.
There's been a lot of talk about those *currently* in Government backing Leave, but there are a lot of old hands who had very senior positions who've seen the light:
Lord Owen - Foreign Secretary (Labour) Norman Tebbit - Secretary for Trade & Industry (Conservative) Lord Lawson - Chancellor (Conservative) Lord Lamont - Chancellor (Conservative)
And, of course, Margaret Thatcher, Ex-PM (Conservative) during her retirement.
These are not small fry, nor are they nutters. They almost all started off as pro-EEC/EC.
They were, are and continue to be highly intelligent people, who rose almost to the very top of our national government.
Owen defected from Labour to a party which polled slightly lower than the Monster Raving Loony Party. The raving, loony lot has since moved to the Tory party.
The Catholic Church in England is recommending a Remain vote.
There were a few frothers who saw the Treaty of Rome as a Papist plot in the days before we joined. Maybe they are right!
Though I suspect that the boom in Catholic Church attendances by Poles, Lithuanians and Slovaks, as well as Irish and Southern Europeans has more to do with it.
The East Europeans don't have a vote.
But all the rest of the congregation that worships with them do.
(Though Maltese, Irish and Cypriots all can vote in this referendum)
Yeah. This vote will be swung by the Maltese and Cypriots.
Next.
There are over 5 million Catholics in the UK and for reasons best known to themselves they to listen to their religious leaders than the average punter.
Only on matters of Faith. Perhaps.
The EU does not come under that. Nor has the Catholic Church actually taken a view. Nor would it.
Cardinal Nichols and I went to the same Catholic School. We disagree, apparently, although Nichols (speaking in a purely personal capacity) doesn't even go so far as saying "Vote Remain."
Only that "togetherness" (whatever that means) is better than "division".
Many Catholic MPs are staunch LEAVErs, including Bill Cash, IDS, Liam Fox, Rees-Mogg, Gisela Stuart...
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
The smallest known measurement in the physical universe is this amount of sympathy I have for Tories complaining Osborne is dishonest.
See. You prove my point.
Some geeky lefties might reserve a unique if weird hatred for adopted comp-boy Michael Gove, but, let's face it, it is the public school millionaire and Chancellor Geo Osborne and Etonian squillionare and prime minister David Cameron who invoke real fury and envy and loathing, the kind of contempt that might swing a swing voter in the referendum.
Nah, it's a slightly different point, Osbornes been spinning bullshit for years. The Tories who put him there have only just noticed. It's a bit late for them to complain.
A sad tale. I had an uncle who did much the same. Was it the drink that caused his redundancy or the redundancy that caused the drink? It was the former with my uncle, who wrecked two families for two decades before drying out. My father still barely speaks to him.
Thank you! The drink came first and he was lucky (believe me - he was going into work in some states that were just beyond - it's extraordinary he kept his job) that he was allowed to choose such a sweetheart deal.
I have mixed feelings about his alcoholism. I'm 38 and he's 36 and we were outside half (me) and scrum half (him), so we've been through some mighty scraps on the same side. So I have some sympathy with his 'illness'and would prefer him to never drink again. But alcoholics are so good at exhausting your patience and making you repeatedly want to punch a hole in their head that I find it hard to speak sympathetically. He has been a nightmare for my mother (living back at home too) as she has struggled to cope with my Dad and the early Alzheimers. But he's usually too drunk, pigheaded and arrogant to see the damage he's done.
He's one of those drinkers who drinks to fall over. He doesn't enjoy it or socialise, he'll nail a bottle of vodka and 50mg of valium and collapse. He's constantly in A&E.
And then he'll recover. He'll have eight weeks off the booze and talk to you as though it wasn't all that bad; no big deal... people making a mountain out of a mole hill!
Then one half pint and bang, he'll spend a hellish four weeks wrecked, unconscious, in hospitals, arrested, covered in black eyes and bruises. It's bonkers.
A very very crazy existence.
Sounds familiar. I remember finding my mother in tears once. She had found herself wishing her brother in law of 30 years dead. She hadn't realised that she was capable of such ill feeling to another person.
He has dried out now, but he really had to hit rock bottom first. His selfishness while ruining the final years of his parents lives was beyond forgiving.
At his best though he was a very witty and charming man who is hard not to like. Only those who have lived through it can see through him.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
Depends on the amount of uncertainty (or panic) in the financial markets. The pound may go into freefall and the BoE forced to raise rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for consumers.
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Vote LEAVE today....and effectively sack those posh gits Camerson and Osborne and watch them resign, Ron-Knee-ashen-faced, stunned and trembling, over your cornflakes tomorrow morning?Tempting
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Very few. Comrade Corbyn has told us which way to vote.
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Vote LEAVE today....and effectively sack those posh gits Camerson and Osborne and watch them resign, Ron-Knee-ashen-faced, stunned and trembling, over your cornflakes tomorrow morning?Tempting
And replace them with Gove, Boris and Farage. Think the left may swallow hard before being a party to a right shift in the government
This referendum will be decided by voters who have virtually no clue about politics. I know this is scary (it scares me, to be honest) but it is the case.
I think this is why LEAVE is level pegging despite facing seriously stronger opposition. LEAVE has a better story. People understand stories, they don't understand or like politics.
People understand their lives.
Plumbers, carpenters, electricians etc don't need a politician's opinion to tell them what they think of immigration and some daft Yougov survey about being £100 a year worse/better off when their hourly rate has fallen, leaving them £100-£200 down every week.
C2's loathe the EU.
But that line of argument can be applied to anyone group facing competition from overseas:
"British Leyland workers loathe the EEC; why should Germans be able to sell their cars into the UK. It's just putting British workers out of a job."
If you believe electricians shouldn't face competition, then where do you stop? Programmers? Bankers? Others in manufacturing industries.
When we accept cheap goods from China, we implicitly accept lower wages for those in manufacturing. It's just less obvious because Jin is in Beijing rather than Basingstoke, but the effect on wages is just the same.
I object to three things about the EU: 1. That we are obliged to offer benefits to migrants. My view is - come here and pay taxes if you like, but don't expect to be subsidised to work here. 2. The supremacy of the ECJ over UK law in certain areas. 3. The cost.
EEA/EFTA solves the vast bulk of these issues, and causes minimal disruption to British businesses. (Of which I've started several.)
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Very few. Comrade Corbyn has told us which way to vote.
How sad you have to be told what to do rather than having your own opinion. Must be a wonderful socialist utopia in which you reside.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
Depends on the amount of uncertainty (or panic) in the financial markets. The pound may go into freefall and the BoE forced to raise rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for consumers.
That is an incredibly low probability scenario, as Osborne well knows.
Even the '20%' numbers some banks have been throwing around are exaggerations and even if they did materialise would probably not lead to higher interest rates in the current environment of modest economic growth and entirely absent inflationary pressures.
It really is dispiriting to see a supposedly Conservative chancellor scaremongering about his own economy in this way.
You may well ask 'whose side is he on?' Not ours, is the answer.
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
This is a kind of wishful thinking given that the remaining Labour voters are urban middle-class professional and clerical workers, ethnic and religious minorities, or the part of the white working-class most resistant to Ukip. None of these groups will particularly care to whack Cameron, only to see him replaced by Gove, or a second Etonian, or to pat Mr Farage on the back.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
Depends on the amount of uncertainty (or panic) in the financial markets. The pound may go into freefall and the BoE forced to raise rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for consumers.
The BoE rate is 0.5%.
Anyone who couldn't cope with a 1% rise in the rate really shouldn't be borrowing.
Thanks @SeanT and @Foxinsoxuk - I'm glad it worked out well for you both. I hope for my mother's sake my brother sorts himself out.
I'm no angel myself (I'll be on an all dayer for thd Welsh Cup semis tomorrow!) but luckily I'm the sort who runs to Tesco on the Sunday buying spinach and fruit, telling myself I'll never drink again.
My brother says his head feels like it's full of loud noises and the drink makes it silent and peaceful. Must be sad to be like that; it's basically mental illness.
Oh well, off to bed. But thank you.
PS - Mr T - I'll be buying the Ice Twins this week. An act of PB solidarity!
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
Depends on the amount of uncertainty (or panic) in the financial markets. The pound may go into freefall and the BoE forced to raise rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for consumers.
That is an incredibly low probability scenario, as Osborne well knows.
Even the '20%' numbers some banks have been throwing around are exaggerations and even if they did materialise would probably not lead to higher interest rates in the current environment of modest economic growth and entirely absent inflationary pressures.
It really is dispiriting to see a supposedly Conservative chancellor scaremongering about his own economy in this way.
You may well ask 'whose side is he on?' Not ours, is the answer.
In the event of Brexit, I reckon the pound would fall 8-10% against the dollar and 5-6% against the Euro. The Euro would fall 3-5% against the Dollar too.
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Vote LEAVE today....and effectively sack those posh gits Camerson and Osborne and watch them resign, Ron-Knee-ashen-faced, stunned and trembling, over your cornflakes tomorrow morning?Tempting
And replace them with Gove, Boris and Farage. Think the left may swallow hard before being a party to a right shift in the government
Exactly. Remain winning the day would be far more likely to collapse the Tory party. At best Cameron and Osborne would lose control of their backbenches, at worst the party will split down the middle.
Leave or Remain they are both dead men walking. Zombie leaders of a Zombie government tearing its own guts out.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
Depends on the amount of uncertainty (or panic) in the financial markets. The pound may go into freefall and the BoE forced to raise rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for consumers.
The BoE rate is 0.5%.
Anyone who couldn't cope with a 1% rise in the rate really shouldn't be borrowing.
The only reason we would see 7 or 8% interest rates would be inflation picked up to the 9-10% level.
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Vote LEAVE today....and effectively sack those posh gits Camerson and Osborne and watch them resign, Ron-Knee-ashen-faced, stunned and trembling, over your cornflakes tomorrow morning?Tempting
And replace them with Gove, Boris and Farage. Think the left may swallow hard before being a party to a right shift in the government
Even better news for me, if we vote Leave Farage forms a govt.
I accused you the other day of being a spoof, I've seen nothing to change my mind, I don't believe you believe what you post.
Licence To Kill on ITV at the moment. Heralded a 6 year lull in Bond films.
Amazingly, my wife thought it was one of the most under-rated Bond movies. (And she regards Goldeneye as one of the most over-rated.)
License to Kill and The Living Daylights are under-rated Bond movies. I think it is a great shame Timothy Dalton only got to do two movies. Sadly they have gone downhill since Casino Royale which I managed to sleep through.
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Vote LEAVE today....and effectively sack those posh gits Camerson and Osborne and watch them resign, Ron-Knee-ashen-faced, stunned and trembling, over your cornflakes tomorrow morning?Tempting
And replace them with Gove, Boris and Farage. Think the left may swallow hard before being a party to a right shift in the government
Exactly. Remain winning the day would be far more likely to collapse the Tory party. At best Cameron and Osborne would lose control of their backbenches, at worst the party will split down the middle.
Leave or Remain they are both dead men walking. Zombie leaders of a Zombie government tearing its own guts out.
Imagine a Corbyn lead government. Calamity, chaos and cuts as the money ran out. No ring fencing for the NHS under Labour. Your Middle class doctor chums would be apoplectic.
Licence To Kill on ITV at the moment. Heralded a 6 year lull in Bond films.
Amazingly, my wife thought it was one of the most under-rated Bond movies. (And she regards Goldeneye as one of the most over-rated.)
License to Kill and The Living Daylights are under-rated Bond movies. I think it is a great shame Timothy Dalton only got to do two movies. Sadly they have gone downhill since Casino Royale which I managed to sleep through.
And replace them with Gove, Boris and Farage. Think the left may swallow hard before being a party to a right shift in the government
Informed politicos maybe. But vote REMAIN as Cameron and Osborne want me to? ? Sod it I wont bother...whats on telly? possibly
We're talking about people who vote at general elections. Some will probably not vote at this referendum, but it will be a fairly small share.
If this turnout dissuasion impact on REMAIN exists (which it probably does), it will be on people who respected what Cameron had to say in the first place, which would be the low-information voter cohort of 2010/15 Con.
Thanks @SeanT and @Foxinsoxuk - I'm glad it worked out well for you both. I hope for my mother's sake my brother sorts himself out.
I'm no angel myself (I'll be on an all dayer for thd Welsh Cup semis tomorrow!) but luckily I'm the sort who runs to Tesco on the Sunday buying spinach and fruit, telling myself I'll never drink again.
My brother says his head feels like it's full of loud noises and the drink makes it silent and peaceful. Must be sad to be like that; it's basically mental illness.
Oh well, off to bed. But thank you.
PS - Mr T - I'll be buying the Ice Twins this week. An act of PB solidarity!
Cheers! I am not teetotal myself and shall have a pint or two after Sundays match. Another 3 points methinks, and another Leicester clean sheet.
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
Depends on the amount of uncertainty (or panic) in the financial markets. The pound may go into freefall and the BoE forced to raise rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for consumers.
The BoE rate is 0.5%.
Anyone who couldn't cope with a 1% rise in the rate really shouldn't be borrowing.
From 2014. Worrying figures for some.
32% of homeowners would struggle if base rate increased to 2.5% More than half do not know current level of Bank of England base rate Only 14% of homeowners have planned for future mortgage increase
How many Labour voters are going to enter the polling station intending to support Remain but find themselves voting Leave just in order to get rid of Cameron and Osborne?
Vote LEAVE today....and effectively sack those posh gits Camerson and Osborne and watch them resign, Ron-Knee-ashen-faced, stunned and trembling, over your cornflakes tomorrow morning?Tempting
Nah. I'm sure Cameron will be momentarily peeved if he loses, but no way will he give anyone the satisfaction of seeing it. He'll continue as PM and set about the renegotiations with gusto, like a man reborn.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/720995234700767233
As it happens, I think we could organise an arrangement like the Swiss, where we pay a smaller 'upfront' but where we allow the EU to collect customs duties on things transhipped through Rotterdam.
That would have the advantage of receding as and when we sign our own free trade deals, and making the headline smaller.
Edit to add; Norway pays about £80m into an EU international development fund, rather than administering its own I believe. It may be possible to 'take that out' the calculation.
One that will simply appeal to Greens and ultra-Lefties living in Brighton, Bristol, Oxford, Cambridge, Islington and Camden.
And no-one else.
That said I was also using the Norway contribution of £500 million a year which includes some voluntary contributions made outside of the strict EFTA membership. Norway basically has a lot of money and likes to use some of it to help other countries in Europe via cohesion initiatives run by the EU. This is an optional not a required contribution.
You might get it down to £2bn, but I don't think it's going any lower.
Not sure how much traction there is for Vote Leave there, but worth considering.
If "sovereignty" was a big concern then the EU would not have registered as such a low priority with voters for years. Immigration is the issue the has galvanised the debate and stirred interest - how it pans out once voters realise that Brexit is unlikely to significantly affect immigration is anybody's guess. Leave could, I suppose, follow SeanT's suggested strategy and lie but I doubt that's sustainable for the next 2 months.
Incidentally, my wife has just threatened to join politicalbetting.com as "Casino Royale's wife" to police my postings on here.
She says I spend more time on here than I do with her.
Maybe I should sign off for the night..
Great if Gove takes over - I can't see him winning in 2020.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/15/brexit-save-nhs-vote-leave-europe
He's no longer a teacher. He took redundancy last May and sent nearly all of it on cheap Vladivar vodka from the Spar. Hell of a shape on him. Sad alcoholic mess; and only 36 too.
Anyway, my brother has never had an original political thought in his life and probably couldn't name three front benchers. But he hates Gove. I'd guess the other thirty thousand people on the mailing list think - or fail to think - along the same lines too. Crass union-sponsored anti-Tory groupthink. But effective, as has been proven with my simple-minded, drunk brother.
The best example of this was the 2005 GE. Just before election day, after Charles Kennedy had been on the news every single day for almost a month, well under 50% of people could even recognise him.
The Irish are often to the right of the British where immigration is concerned.
IF he became PM, everything he had done before would be totally forgotten as ancient history. People would judge him entirely on how he did as PM.
"Yer know, kind of, sort of..."
I'm voting leave, and Gove's article inspired me more than any other piece of politicking I've seen in the IN/OUT battle since. It was hard to argue with a single word he wrote. .
Osborne's Mortgage Warning Over Quitting EU
The Chancellor claims families will "pay the price" if the UK quits the EU as he suggests mortgage rates are likely to rise
http://news.sky.com/story/1679466/osbornes-mortgage-warning-over-quitting-eu
A sad tale. I had an uncle who did much the same. Was it the drink that caused his redundancy or the redundancy that caused the drink? It was the former with my uncle, who wrecked two families for two decades before drying out. My father still barely speaks to him.
For example if 90% of Kippers are planning to vote leave then potentially 90% can shift to Remain for £100. If only 25% of Labour voters are thinking of voting Leave then only 25% can potentially change their mind for the cash.
It does show that even kipper Leavers are not immune to the Stronger In campaign though.
Plumbers, carpenters, electricians etc don't need a politician's opinion to tell them what they think of immigration and some daft Yougov survey about being £100 a year worse/better off when their hourly rate has fallen, leaving them £100-£200 down every week.
C2's loathe the EU.
Is he over there, job-hunting?
To the motivated the spoils,. Drive that turnout down!
I have mixed feelings about his alcoholism. I'm 38 and he's 36 and we were outside half (me) and scrum half (him), so we've been through some mighty scraps on the same side. So I have some sympathy with his 'illness'and would prefer him to never drink again. But alcoholics are so good at exhausting your patience and making you repeatedly want to punch a hole in their head that I find it hard to speak sympathetically. He has been a nightmare for my mother (living back at home too) as she has struggled to cope with my Dad and the early Alzheimers. But he's usually too drunk, pigheaded and arrogant to see the damage he's done.
He's one of those drinkers who drinks to fall over. He doesn't enjoy it or socialise, he'll nail a bottle of vodka and 50mg of valium and collapse. He's constantly in A&E.
And then he'll recover. He'll have eight weeks off the booze and talk to you as though it wasn't all that bad; no big deal... people making a mountain out of a mole hill!
Then one half pint and bang, he'll spend a hellish four weeks wrecked, unconscious, in hospitals, arrested, covered in black eyes and bruises. It's bonkers.
A very very crazy existence.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/pro-europe-campaign-is-just-photo-of-farage-20151013102855
They remain an occupying force in the eyes of Cypriots, Greeks and British Greek Cypriots.
The Greeks and Greek Cypriots are fiercely Christian along a border with Islamic Turkey.
The EU does not come under that. Nor has the Catholic Church actually taken a view. Nor would it.
Cardinal Nichols and I went to the same Catholic School. We disagree, apparently, although Nichols (speaking in a purely personal capacity) doesn't even go so far as saying "Vote Remain."
Only that "togetherness" (whatever that means) is better than "division".
Many Catholic MPs are staunch LEAVErs, including Bill Cash, IDS, Liam Fox, Rees-Mogg, Gisela Stuart...
He has dried out now, but he really had to hit rock bottom first. His selfishness while ruining the final years of his parents lives was beyond forgiving.
At his best though he was a very witty and charming man who is hard not to like. Only those who have lived through it can see through him.
"British Leyland workers loathe the EEC; why should Germans be able to sell their cars into the UK. It's just putting British workers out of a job."
If you believe electricians shouldn't face competition, then where do you stop? Programmers? Bankers? Others in manufacturing industries.
When we accept cheap goods from China, we implicitly accept lower wages for those in manufacturing. It's just less obvious because Jin is in Beijing rather than Basingstoke, but the effect on wages is just the same.
I object to three things about the EU:
1. That we are obliged to offer benefits to migrants. My view is - come here and pay taxes if you like, but don't expect to be subsidised to work here.
2. The supremacy of the ECJ over UK law in certain areas.
3. The cost.
EEA/EFTA solves the vast bulk of these issues, and causes minimal disruption to British businesses. (Of which I've started several.)
Even the '20%' numbers some banks have been throwing around are exaggerations and even if they did materialise would probably not lead to higher interest rates in the current environment of modest economic growth and entirely absent inflationary pressures.
It really is dispiriting to see a supposedly Conservative chancellor scaremongering about his own economy in this way.
You may well ask 'whose side is he on?' Not ours, is the answer.
None of these groups will particularly care to whack Cameron, only to see him replaced by Gove, or a second Etonian, or to pat Mr Farage on the back.
Anyone who couldn't cope with a 1% rise in the rate really shouldn't be borrowing.
I'm no angel myself (I'll be on an all dayer for thd Welsh Cup semis tomorrow!) but luckily I'm the sort who runs to Tesco on the Sunday buying spinach and fruit, telling myself I'll never drink again.
My brother says his head feels like it's full of loud noises and the drink makes it silent and peaceful. Must be sad to be like that; it's basically mental illness.
Oh well, off to bed. But thank you.
PS - Mr T - I'll be buying the Ice Twins this week. An act of PB solidarity!
And replace them with Gove, Boris and Farage. Think the left may swallow hard before being a party to a right shift in the government
Informed politicos maybe. But vote REMAIN as Cameron and Osborne want me to? ? Sod it I wont bother...whats on telly? possibly
Leave or Remain they are both dead men walking. Zombie leaders of a Zombie government tearing its own guts out.
A small move in sterling isn't going to do that,
I accused you the other day of being a spoof, I've seen nothing to change my mind, I don't believe you believe what you post.
We're talking about people who vote at general elections. Some will probably not vote at this referendum, but it will be a fairly small share.
If this turnout dissuasion impact on REMAIN exists (which it probably does), it will be on people who respected what Cameron had to say in the first place, which would be the low-information voter cohort of 2010/15 Con.
The general concept that you are proposing of globalisation doesn't hold with some things.
If you are looking for a plumber to fix your leaky U-bend, no one is coming from Warsaw. They will be located nearby.
32% of homeowners would struggle if base rate increased to 2.5%
More than half do not know current level of Bank of England base rate
Only 14% of homeowners have planned for future mortgage increase
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2828375/A-homeowners-struggle-rates-rose-2.html#ixzz45w8x3dHj