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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We need to re-think next CON leader betting following Cameron’s rough week on his financial affairs
One consequence I’d suggest of the past week’s revelations relating to David Cameron is that his successor will come from a very different sort of background. Next time the party will not choose a “posh boy who doesn’t know the price of bread” to use the Nadine Dorries quote.
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History suggests that anytime a government loses the National Estimated Vote in local elections in their first year by anymore than 2%, they go on to lose the next General Election.
Now, a couple of weeks ago, I would've said it was almost certain the Tories would either win the local election voteshare, or come within 2% or less to Labour. Now though, I'm not so sure...
1980 Locals: Labour led by 2% (Tories won GE1983)
1984 Locals: Tories led by 1% (Tories won GE1987)
1988 Locals: Tories led by 1% (Tories won GE1992)
1993 Locals: Labour led by 8% (Labour won GE1997)
1998 Locals: Labour led by 4% (Labour won GE2001)
2002 Locals: Tories led by 1% (Labour won GE2005)
2006 Locals: Tories led by 13% (Tories won GE2010)
2011 Locals: Tories led by 1% (Tories won GE2015)
Vote Leave and wipe the smile off their faces.
Would be my slogan. It'll make Project Fear look silly.
It's pointless anyway - the Labour brand is still regarded as closer to the working man and woman, so the Tories could be led by a mendicant friar who'd taken a vow of poverty and the party would still not be seen as looking out for those at the bottom as well as Labour.
Interesting the article itself as visible doesn't mention the detail behind the headline.
Next week, just as in every week of the year, dozens of testators and others will seek professional advice on how to achieve exactly the same thing.
They have probably been reading, amongst others, government and HMRC websites...
https://www.gov.uk/inheritance-tax/gifts
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/717460847585574913
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/718847749869932544
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3531852/Labour-councillor-20-suspended-claims-called-Hitler-greatest-man-history-latest-anti-Semitic-scandal-hit-Corbyn-s-party.html
All smiles for the cameras.
I think we've all possibly become suckered into thinking it doesn't matter now if a Tory leader is a privileged rich Etonian, because Cameron pulled off a stunning success last year. However, some of that success was built on two other factors: 1. a coalition that was a very good Government (god I miss it) and 2. Ed Miliband was absolutely and unremittingly awful
The Tories generally don't win with toffs and that's the meme to which I think we'll now return after this tax fiasco.
So Mike Smithson is right. Place your bets on those of humble stock.
It wouldn't have gone on any income tax return.
It would only be declared on the Inheritance Tax form if she died within 7 years.
I guess he was worried it might come out but who would ever know? It would basically require an employee at his bank to go through his 2011 bank statements and leak it. Presumably he felt that could happen and he couldn't chance it.
Home Office granted powers to snoop on detention centre refugees three years ago by amendment to 20-year-old Police Act
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/10/immigration-officials-can-hack-refugees-phones
They were selling tickets in the half-price booth at Leicester Square at 5:30 for it.
I went to Kinky Boots instead, which was excellent but for an added tedious Traditional Man redeemed by Transgender Man because the latter is more Manly narrative.
Mike says the pressure will now be on others particularly those standing for the Tory leadership. I'm not sure. Our feral press has an agenda. Those who share it like Johnson get a free pass. Those who don't like Osborne and Cameron get the treatmet.
Altogether a very ugly episode in British politics.
Corbyn and MaoDonnell are, no matter how you like their style, self-marginalised mad people politically, but eg Hilary Benn received a house - worth several times Mr Cameron's - as a lifetime gift which avoided Inheritance Tax in 2005 iirc. What of the rest of the Shad Cab?
What about the others? Will dodgy expenses come up again? Every MP who went to prison was Labour. What about Blair's Unlimited Partnership (?) setup, or the Office of Mr and Mrs Broon?
Cameron's going to suffer from the problem Labour and Brown had seven years ago: a leader becomes impotent when numerous noisy elements in his party start publicly against them. It gives the media oxygen for any of the inevitable fires that engulf leaders from time to time.
As ever, there is a madness in the Conservative party when it comes to the EU. It strikes deep to the soul of the party, and it had to reveal itself again sometime.
In addition, there are some Davisites who have never forgiven posho Cameron for beating their hero Davis. They have been convinced for eleven years that they have the wrong leader, and hate him and his policies. The two election victories and the defenestration of the disastrous Brown count for nothing.
It's madness, pure and simple. All I can say is thank God Davis never got anywhere near power.
Should be amusing just from published sources.
Add in Ken Livingstone for LOLs.
This is just a small step in the gradual erosion of privacy.
That's what his opponents are banking on and it is disingenuous for them to be claiming for him to be open an honest when they themselves are most certainly not being so.
The Fair Tax Campaign goofballs receive far too much attention for their crazy proposals for government control of everything. Time to talk about it all?
Or should we bring back exchange controls etc.
But the article above shows what happens when you let someone with ill intent or too ignorant to understand loose on your financial affairs. His mother gave him a gift of £200,000. It's legal and it signifies nothing. What it was doing on a tax return I cant imagine.
I'm beginning to feel really sorry for Cameron. I think he's a naif. He lays bare his entire financial dealings only to find that a gift from his mother has now been twisted into a story about how she was trying to beat inheritance tax.
Corbyn and Labour cannot say family should be left out of it now.
But where are the Lib Dems? Please Farron, get your act together ...
I shed but not all". I even saw one headline yesterday saying .... Yeah but even if his tax return is good what about his wife's fortune?
No win situation. Sad given no one has shown a single iota of illegal activity and nothing that any of us can do clearly stated on the HMRC website
Yet the Tories were being cast as the toff party?
Even if he has done nothing illegal (yet to be proven) he has campaigned for several years about people paying their income tax. The hypocrisy and obfuscation of the man is a stink under most people's noses.
Oh and he's a rich git which is even more annoying.
Newspaper owners should be careful though. Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander...
It is all very unedifying.
Oh don't be so ridiculous. If you stand for public office you forfeit the right to keep your tax affairs private.
Tsk.
We invested £15k has turned into disclosure of tax returns and lots more digging. I'd have my head in my hands right now.
What other things do they forfeit in your mind? And once a special case is made for them, why not extend it to others: I'm sure there's plenty of your 'middle class elitists' in the media who are being hypocrites, avoiding tax and doing dodgy things. Then how about FTSE 100/250 management, then shareholders, etc, etc.
200k gifts from Mummy and 300k inheritance from Daddy are a long way from most people's livelihoods. On top of shielding himself from tax, despite having pledged to stop that sort of antic, just makes him even more remote from us ordinary folk.
Mike's right. The Tories will have to choose a down-to-earth leader or they're back out of power for 20 years.
" oh and he's a rich git which is even more annoying"
It's really the Politics of envy isn't it? Well if you Don't like it then why not just simply raise your keyboard warrior frame from that comfy armchair of yours and do something about it.
If the press put half the spotlight focus upon policies that they place upon politicians then we'd have a much better run country.
Who'd be a politician?
On humbleness, this advantages future prime ministers Priti Patel and Justine Greening: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priti_Patel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justine_Greening#Early_life
And I repeat my first question: what else do they forfeit?
Politicians are an odd bunch, and are not expected to be like normal people. Cameron was known to be wealthy when he became leader and he brought the party back to government. It doesn't seem to have held him back.
Similarly Jezzas romantic motorcycle tour of East Germany is just a curious illustration of how different politicians are from ordinary experience.
I think Cameron will ride this out fine, and it doesn't really weigh much in the balance of who is next Tory leader.
People who roast babies and kick crutches away from the disabled are not expected to play nice with their monies.
It is obvious that most lefties cannot grasp the fact that some people come from a wealthy background,Cameron and his wife did...so get over it.
Wanna discuss Wedgie Benns sons frantic efforts to avoid IHT..
Any ways....Of out to make some money and become a privileged , out of touch, middle class elitist
In my view when Cameron goes it will be a 3 way race between Osborne, Boris and Gove, and I would expect Boris to win by a mile. My personal choice would be Osborne as the continuity candidate.
As a sideline I was asking TSE which constituency he was offered to stand in but I can't see his reply - does anyone know?
Boris is fairly clean, isn't he? It came out in a tax spat with Ken, iirc, that while Boris is paid a small fortune as a writer, he does not try to avoid income tax. So the answer is probably: one of the others.
Your question is perhaps the wrong way round. Given the disproportionate defensiveness on the part of the Prime Minister and CCHQ over what started as a pretty innocuous story, surely the question is what or who else is David Cameron trying to protect?
@faisalislam: On £200k maternal gift - asserting an "inheritance tax dodge" somewhat unfair - perhaps more unfair than Miliband Deed of Variation story...
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Haunting-Lake-Manor-Hotel-ebook/dp/B01DQEDAEE/
The suggestion that Gove will be promoted will fuel calls for him to stand for the leadership in the event of a vote for Brexit. Some of his friends believe he would be prepared to fight Johnson for the job if he could lead Britain out of the EU.
One said: “Michael used to want to be prime minister until his popularity collapsed around three years ago. He wanted to take Britain out of the EU. He is in politics to do things. If there is a vote to remain, does he want to be PM? Probably not. But if we do vote to leave, who is going to handle the negotiations — Boris? I don’t think so.”
Perhaps one of our friends on the left can clarify- it's now open season on anyone who has taken steps to legally reduce their tax liability- correct?
All round a nasty piece of work, out of the John Craig / Joey Jones mode. Even Sophie Ridge has started to hide her lefty views post Corbyn.
Ozzy to The Foreign Office
Hammond to the Treasury
Boris either gets Health or Defence
Other option is
Ozzy stays at the Treasury
May to the FCO
Boris to the Home Office
Boris to Northern Ireland...
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/half-of-muslims-say-gays-should-be-outlawed-cb5bcdtcx
Any one of the last four would be the worst mistake since Richard III exposed his flank to the Stanleys at Bosworth field.
Would the idea be that they spend so much time laughing at him they haven't time for anything else, or that they finally get to agree on something - how much they hate Boris?
Up for debate :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10761635/Britains-first-Jewish-PM-does-Disraeli-have-the-title.html
I am really surprised that he only had £140K of shares to sell when organising himself to become PM. Not much sign of tax planning in that family despite the claims about avoiding IHT. Running 6 years income together to claim someone earned £1m is almost Brownian in its dishonesty, as is adding in his wife's share of the income.
On that basis I am not entirely sure I agree with the premise of the thread. If moderately successful, pretty comfortable people like this are somehow deemed too prosperous to be our PM we are in trouble.
Until Hague came along, of course, every Conservative leader since the title was created in 1922 had also been PM. And only 2 de facto leaders before that time had not been PM - Northcote in the 1880s, and Chamberlain in 1921.
"Mumbai?"
"She pays for everything else but the taxpayer is funding this trip"
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tSC3RMstJl8
Not that it matters much. If the Victorians were not that bothered then why should anyone else be?
Religion plays much less of a place in politics here than across the pond. Thank God!
His issue currently is that he cares about his family. He showed that when Labour attacked him over the NHS and his son - and won. He showed that when Labour attacked his wife in the evil social media attacks - and won. Now Labour are attacking his late father he is responding and will win. His responses to this have been a result of protecting his father's reputation first and his own position second.
The left wing are struggling with the concept that Cameron may place his own family loyalties above political correctness; Miliband demonstrated perfectly this is not in the left wing playbook.