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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for Lond
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for London and the White House Race after Wisconsin
If Labour is to have any chance of getting a good result in the May 5th elections then London is the place where it has most hopes. A victory by Sadiq Khan to re-take the Mayoralty for the party would provide a massive boost and maybe offset expected disappointments elsewhere. But will it happen.
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Up yours Brussels:
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899
I've backed him each way at 20/1 with a bookie (Jennings) who is paying quarter the odds six places.
I can not seem to find it , is anyone aware of the book ?
GOP
Trump 39
Cruz 30
Kasich 24
Dems
Clinton 50
Sanders 44
General Election
Clinton 45
Trump 42
Clinton 43
Cruz 43
Clinton 35
Kasich 51
Sanders 48
Trump 40
Sanders 46
Cruz 38
Sanders 40
Kasich 46
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf
The stupid woman can't even relate that the victims were buried on the moors. It's the nickname luv that gives you the fecking clue.
"SNP election agent is condemned as 'a disgrace' after comparing David Cameron and Boris Johnson to child killers Ian Brady and Myra Hindley
Photo doctored to make Cameron and Johnson look like Moors murderers "
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3526743/SNP-election-agent-condemned-disgrace-comparing-David-Cameron-Boris-Johnson-child-killers-Ian-Brady-Myra-Hindley.html#ixzz454trBRRG
Because if either Trump or Cruz are the nominee then one of them is going to bolt out and run as an independent or support an independent.
So it's fine if Cruz is level with Hillary on his own, but what happens if Trump runs as an independent in Pennsylvania ?
http://app.nos.nl/datavisualisatie/referendum-2016/
EU fatigue has risen again in the Netherlands.
One thing it could conceivably do is tie into a theme of democratic insurgency.
The Greeks last year, the Dutch this....and then us?
There is a sense that there is something wrong about the EU.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b075qflr
Sounds interesting. Years ago I did a lot of work on Sir John Anderson, who would surely be one of them. One of two career civil servants to subsequently become a Cabinet Minister (I forget who the other was).
Kippers certainly have some very strange bedfellows! What is wrong with an EU freetrade agreement with Ukraine tied to measures to improve good government?
Still, at 54, the vile creature will soon be breaking Scottish records for longevity.
nothing to see hear, move on
nothing to see hear, move on
nothing to see hear, move on
https://t.co/OLTV3WPh2d https://t.co/ZeNx2p318k
Denmark - NO
Netherlands - NO
All referendums in the past 12 months have gone against Brussels.
Only EU bureaucrats seem to not understand this basic reality of European/Russian geopolitics.
Yet it is possible to oppose Putin as well as opposing further EU/Ukraine involvement.
I expect Alastair Meeks to come along shortly and suggest that this is an embarrassingly self serving comment.
Apt that it should be the Dutch given the shooting down of MH17 over the Ukraine.
It might well have been easier for all concerned if they didn't feel so, and there's no obligation for the EU to entice them further, but the main problem appears to be division over its future in Ukraine itself, not that two sides in Russia and the EU are making offers.
(Incidentally, I'm not saying that's why the Dutch referendum has gone against it. I suspect it would have gone that way had the Irish or the Germans been the country in question as well. This looks more like a mighty two-fingered salute to the EU. It's a bit unfortunate that they've picked a rare case of the EU doing something rather sensible - trying to help sort out the mess that Russia's meddling has left Ukraine in - rather than something stupid - like the Euro - to make the gesture though.)
Ukraine is the doorstep, and Ukrainian nationalism/collaboration has form where Germany/Russia is concerned.
We had a Morrison.
1) The Russians think of Ukraine as a province of Russia. It was, indeed, the place where Russia was created (the Duchy of Rus was first based in Kiev). They would see it joining the EU as the equivalent of Hampshire declaring independence and joining France.
2) They therefore have enormous difficulty thinking of the Ukrainians as a separate people and entitled to make their separate decisions about what to do.
3) They are also unnerved at the thought of a country next door to them, in the middle of a big, flat, grassy plain that runs pretty well all the way to Moscow, being controlled by someone else.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians do not quite see it that way:
1) They are a separate people, with a separate language and therefore do not think of themselves as Russian;
2) They hate the Russians with a passion, largely as a result of the Stalin era (collectivization) and the Second World War (when their country was devastated by the Russians, the Germans and then the Russians again);
3) They believe that Russia only wants to run them as a sort of colonial outpost and food/raw materials depot. They also feel they are treated as inferiors by the Russians. Even in the USSR, only one Ukrainian ever rose to the top of the Communist party. Even Georgia had more senior Politburo members than they did.
4) The whole thing is somewhat complicated by the huge numbers of Russians - as distinct from Ukrainians - who live in the Crimea, the Donetsk and Donbass, the latter regions the descendants of dispossessed peasants who went to work in the coal mines and factories under the Tsars. Who see things as Russians - i.e. 1-3 above - and not Ukrainians - 1-3 below. The result, of course, is a civil war. Forget the official ideologies - it's naked or at best scantily-clad nationalism.
There is an argument that the EU should not twist Russia's tale by helping Ukraine. I don't think that's a tenable argument. If national self-determination is to be applied, Ukraine has the right to make trade agreements and treaties with whomever it wants. Putin is bullying it into making agreements only with him and has not proven shy about using torture, murder and corruption on a grand scale to do it. The EU as a bloc is in a better position to help Ukraine stand up to this than France/Britain/Germany or even NATO would be singly, via helpful trade terms and modernisation of their constitution (which was rigged to favour Russia).
Therefore, in standing up for their independence on an issue that does not affect them directly Dutch voters are potentially damaging the Ukraine's own chances of remaining independent. That is a sad paradox.
A thought to leave you with for tonight. Good night.
I see injunctions are back in vogue. Took 2 seconds to find out.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/panama-papers-reveal-london-centre-spiders-173713142.html
One of my sources has mentioned that there was a protest march in London today with regard to the Panama papers - does anyone have any further information about this? No mention in the mainstream media about this of course!
Well we had a typical smoke and mirrors job from Cameron yesterday, not once but four times. Wes Streeting is quite right, until Cameron publishes all his tax returns going back to and including the 2010/11 tax year he has no hope of shutting this down. And depending on how quickly any inheritance disbursement from Blairmore Holdings fell into his lap, he has to publish back to 2010/11. Charles Walker was well and truly bested by Streeting and Jon Snow on Channel 4 News earlier this evening.
Now yesterday, I mentioned about the Carroll Trust. Nothing very much is really known about the demise of the Carroll Trust, but the trust set up in 1986 which had 85 companies in it, was at one stage estimated to have a net worth of £250m. The following article tells some of the story about the collapse by 1993:
http://nuclear-news.net/2013/06/23/david-cameron-tax-evasion-expose-security-service-cover-up/
Why has no one to date been brought before the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) about the alleged fraud?
What was the link between Smith Williamson Holdings and Blairmore Holdings and the Carroll Trust?
What does Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe know about this?
Why are the files in complete lockdown about this at the FBI in Washington and at Scotland Yard? I do wonder if anyone has tried to make an FOI request on these files, but I can guess what the response was.
It's times like this I really wish Socrates was on the site.
https://twitter.com/dannythefink/status/717622769719111680
But if the reason is to appease or avoid conflict with Russia then that is dreadful.
The people in charge since 'independence' have looted the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Hankey,_1st_Baron_Hankey
Ukraine is deeply split on a broadly east-west axis, in terms of its attitudes to Russia. This relates not just to Russian immigration in the last century but also to the fact that Ukraine's current (somewhat artificial) borders bring together areas that in the west, were historically parts of Poland (and later Austria-Hungary) and in the east areas that were part of Russia from the 17th century (and with an emotional attachment to Russians that goes back to the Dark Ages).
The result of this is that to push Ukraine either entirely into the Russian or entirely into the western orbit risks destabilising the country, as well as infuriating the Russians. Against this background, the EU's attempt to expand into Ukraine were very unwise. The Russian response is of course unacceptable but was also predictable - and entirely avoidable.
Brought to you by a weird person.
I am not scared of European elites - they're laughable. But I imagine they might soon be scared of the people; Holland has suggested as much.
On another note, the leaflet coming to me next week from HM Government will be going straight into the bin. This is a scandalous waste of £9m of taxpayers money - we the people are quite capable of making our own minds up. Any literature from both sides should be privately financed by both sides. I didn't want 15p of my own money telling me a load of bull****, and instead maybe could have gone towards a better settlement for the junior doctors.
This is very simple, chronic EU fatigue is the cause behind this, people simply disagree with the direction the EU is going since 1992.
The EU hasn't won a referendum since they forced the Irish to vote twice on the Nice treaty in 2001.
Goodnight.
Dan Hannan on Newsnight just volunteered that he had voted in favour of the EU -Ukraine treaty.
What is it about this treaty that you object to? Apart from the fact that it was negotiated by the EU?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/icijs-political-agenda-may-backfire/
The Mossack Fonseca coverage in our mainstream press has been typical in poking a stick at Russia (and China) instead of sorting out our own grubby affairs at home. Britain with its disgraceful corruption is in no position to lecture the rest of the world on tax affairs, particularly when the whole world finally finds out what has been going on at 788 790 Finchley Road and all of the interconnected boiler room operations.
https://twitter.com/stewartwood/status/717824288703823873
I can't stand Russian policy towards ex USSR territories - but this is anything but a de-escalation strategy.
The EU is something I'm struggling to describe.
It isn't a union, whatever the name says. The Eurozone is, but the bit we're in, isn't.
The sooner we rationalise Eurozone, EU, EFTA back down to two - one a union, one a free trade area - the better.
And yet it is the fervent Remainers who accuse others of making embarrassingly self-serving comments.
Turnout: 32.1% after 98.5%
38.2% Yes
61% No
No wins and the result is valid after surpassing the minimum 30% threshold. The government has to unratify(?) the EU-Ukraine trade deal.
Just as the commodity down cycle of the 1980s did for the USSR, it is highly likely this one will do for Putin's Russia.
There is an awful lot of ignorance in Western Europe about Russia and the Ukraine. To sum up the key points:
1) The Russians think of Ukraine as a province of Russia. It was, indeed, the place where Russia was created (the Duchy of Rus was first based in Kiev). They would see it joining the EU as the equivalent of Hampshire declaring independence and joining France.
2) They therefore have enormous difficulty thinking of the Ukrainians as a separate people and entitled to make their separate decisions about what to do.
3) They are also unnerved at the thought of a country next door to them, in the middle of a big, flat, grassy plain that runs pretty well all the way to Moscow, being controlled by someone else.