With every day that passes it seems to become less and less likely that the Tories will be able to pull themselves together after the referendum. whatever the result. How Cameron must regret not following through when he told his party to stop banging on about Europe!
Quite. What a mess, and entirely of their own making.
This relatively new Tory member certainly didn't expect Cameron and Osborne's behaviour of the past few weeks, having supported the pair of them for ten years.
Osborne comes over as a c**t but quite a clever one (a bit like Brown but he was a stupid one, who thought he was a clever one, which is the worst sort). He may be a useful person in the back office, but as leader he would be voter poison. The voters shouldn't even be allowed to suspect he is Cameron's grey eminence.
Or, to quote myself when previously referring to the Lib Dem electoral campaign: being a flasher today and castrated tomorrow is not a winning strategy.
The REMAIN camp's head of strategy is the former head of the LD GE2015 campaign. Anyone spot the reason why REMAIN are not 20 points ahead when against 3 or 4 separate LEAVE campaigns?
Half the Remain team worked at CCHQ when the Tories won a majority
Were they the ones that were right? They also have Labour's Will Straw and the chairman with BSE or is that the chairman of BSE (ex Marks & Sparks).
Leave of course have Farage, Galloway and Dominic Cummings
and REMAIN still cannot pull 20 points ahead......
They never were the most likely result is Remain 51 49 or 52 48 in my view
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
McDonnel at the present rate.
Funniest post today. Well done ..
JackW - looking at the direction of the polls it is no joke. The Conservative party's chances are being sacrificed on the ambition of Osborne.
Unfortunately it is easier for Tory MPs to stab a party leader in the back than a Chancellor. Can Cameron be persuaded he needs to sacrifice his friend for his party and country? Has he got the mettle to do it?
Let me get this right. If Labour are well behind in the polls with no chance of winning the 2020 GE then Corbyn is safe. If Labour is ahead and could win the GE then he is under threat.
OK.
Yes.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Labour need to beware mid-term blues giving polls that seem to indicate that Corbyn will be PM. They will not be an accurate reflection of how people will vote in the actual GE.
Cameron trounces Corbyn on preferred PM as he trounced Ed Miliband
Cameron won't be a candidate in 2020.
Though I am pouring cold water on the Conservatives' prospects I think there are very few circumstances in which they wouldn't beat a Corbyn-led Labour. But, increasingly, they are relying on Labour not rectifying that mistake.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
Or, to quote myself when previously referring to the Lib Dem electoral campaign: being a flasher today and castrated tomorrow is not a winning strategy.
The REMAIN camp's head of strategy is the former head of the LD GE2015 campaign. Anyone spot the reason why REMAIN are not 20 points ahead when against 3 or 4 separate LEAVE campaigns?
Half the Remain team worked at CCHQ when the Tories won a majority
Were they the ones that were right? They also have Labour's Will Straw and the chairman with BSE or is that the chairman of BSE (ex Marks & Sparks).
The point is that the public face of REMAIN is Cameron & Osborne. They have just been made to look like a pair of prats.
Hush, I hoped that Osborne and Cameron had not yet noticed. We will have weeks of "end of Days" speeches to look foward to.
Or, to quote myself when previously referring to the Lib Dem electoral campaign: being a flasher today and castrated tomorrow is not a winning strategy.
The REMAIN camp's head of strategy is the former head of the LD GE2015 campaign. Anyone spot the reason why REMAIN are not 20 points ahead when against 3 or 4 separate LEAVE campaigns?
Half the Remain team worked at CCHQ when the Tories won a majority
Were they the ones that were right? They also have Labour's Will Straw and the chairman with BSE or is that the chairman of BSE (ex Marks & Sparks).
Leave of course have Farage, Galloway and Dominic Cummings
and REMAIN still cannot pull 20 points ahead......
They never were the most likely result is Remain 51 49 or 52 48 in my view
Was it ever clarified what would happen in the event of a numerical tie?
Let me get this right. If Labour are well behind in the polls with no chance of winning the 2020 GE then Corbyn is safe. If Labour is ahead and could win the GE then he is under threat.
OK.
Yes.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Labour need to beware mid-term blues giving polls that seem to indicate that Corbyn will be PM. They will not be an accurate reflection of how people will vote in the actual GE.
Cameron trounces Corbyn on preferred PM as he trounced Ed Miliband
Cameron won't be a candidate in 2020.
Though I am pouring cold water on the Conservatives' prospects I think there are very few circumstances in which they wouldn't beat a Corbyn-led Labour. But, increasingly, they are relying on Labour not rectifying that mistake.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
Except aren't they colluding with Lab for PR by the back for (no referendum)? They'd need to be in coalitions then.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
With every day that passes it seems to become less and less likely that the Tories will be able to pull themselves together after the referendum. whatever the result. How Cameron must regret not following through when he told his party to stop banging on about Europe!
Quite. What a mess, and entirely of their own making.
This relatively new Tory member certainly didn't expect Cameron and Osborne's behaviour of the past few weeks, having supported the pair of them for ten years.
Osborne comes over as a c**t but quite a clever one (a bit like Brown but he was a stupid one, who thought he was a clever one, which is the worst sort). He may be a useful person in the back office, but as leader he would be voter poison. The voters shouldn't even be allowed to suspect he is Cameron's grey eminence.
Osborne's weakness has always been his wanting to put a political angle on something where it really wasn't needed, in the same manner - if not to the same extent - as Brown did as CoE before him.
After six years of trying to get his much needed reforms through in the face of the Treasury, IDS got fed up with being seen as the scapegoat by Osborne and threw in the towel. I don't think GO liked to be played at his own game, but there's only so may times you can punch someone before they hit you back!
GO - and by implication to some extent DC - is starting to lose the dressing room. Could we see enough rebels to actually vote down the Budget I wonder?
Let's hope that IDS can spend tomorrow briefing his successor then disappear for a few weeks on holiday. He must be emotionally shattered by the past few days, I would bet at almost any odds that he stands down as an MP at the next election.
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks
"What's the matter with America?" (apparently published as "What's the matter with Kansas?" in the USA) is quite an easy yet illuminating read. It centres on the rise of blue collar conservatism, particularly looking at how this formerly left wing populist state has become one of the staunchest Republican ones.
Let me get this right. If Labour are well behind in the polls with no chance of winning the 2020 GE then Corbyn is safe. If Labour is ahead and could win the GE then he is under threat.
OK.
Yes.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Labour need to beware mid-term blues giving polls that seem to indicate that Corbyn will be PM. They will not be an accurate reflection of how people will vote in the actual GE.
Cameron trounces Corbyn on preferred PM as he trounced Ed Miliband
Cameron won't be a candidate in 2020.
Though I am pouring cold water on the Conservatives' prospects I think there are very few circumstances in which they wouldn't beat a Corbyn-led Labour. But, increasingly, they are relying on Labour not rectifying that mistake.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
Except aren't they colluding with Lab for PR by the back for (no referendum)? They'd need to be in coalitions then.
No, they don't. You can support a government on most votes without joining a coalition. The Tories did that by helping the SNP in Holyrood from 2007 to 2011.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
Of the two presented to members AFAIK Cameron had more of the right wing MP votes than Davis. Fox never made that stage FYI.
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks
The Constitution of the United States. A very small book indeed.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
Before taking office he entered into coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Let me get this right. If Labour are well behind in the polls with no chance of winning the 2020 GE then Corbyn is safe. If Labour is ahead and could win the GE then he is under threat.
OK.
Yes.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Labour need to beware mid-term blues giving polls that seem to indicate that Corbyn will be PM. They will not be an accurate reflection of how people will vote in the actual GE.
Cameron trounces Corbyn on preferred PM as he trounced Ed Miliband
Cameron won't be a candidate in 2020.
Though I am pouring cold water on the Conservatives' prospects I think there are very few circumstances in which they wouldn't beat a Corbyn-led Labour. But, increasingly, they are relying on Labour not rectifying that mistake.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
UKIP have a better chance of being the coalition partner if they swapped Farage out and brought in Suzanne Evans. Thank goodness Farage will block that. Ironically the Conservatives need Farage to remain in place.
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line.
It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
Let me get this right. If Labour are well behind in the polls with no chance of winning the 2020 GE then Corbyn is safe. If Labour is ahead and could win the GE then he is under threat.
OK.
Yes.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Labour need to beware mid-term blues giving polls that seem to indicate that Corbyn will be PM. They will not be an accurate reflection of how people will vote in the actual GE.
Cameron trounces Corbyn on preferred PM as he trounced Ed Miliband
Cameron won't be a candidate in 2020.
Though I am pouring cold water on the Conservatives' prospects I think there are very few circumstances in which they wouldn't beat a Corbyn-led Labour. But, increasingly, they are relying on Labour not rectifying that mistake.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
UKIP have a better chance of being the coalition partner if they swapped Farage out and brought in Suzanne Evans. Thank goodness Farage will block that. Ironically the Conservatives need Farage to remain in place.
I disagree with you. Let's assume Evans make the kippers more electable, but they will only take seats from the Tories. Those Northern Labour seats every kipper sees through misty eyes can only become reality if enough WWC votes for UKIP. Farage, [ like Trump in the US ] is what attracts them.
Let me get this right. If Labour are well behind in the polls with no chance of winning the 2020 GE then Corbyn is safe. If Labour is ahead and could win the GE then he is under threat.
OK.
Yes.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Labour need to beware mid-term blues giving polls that seem to indicate that Corbyn will be PM. They will not be an accurate reflection of how people will vote in the actual GE.
Cameron trounces Corbyn on preferred PM as he trounced Ed Miliband
Cameron won't be a candidate in 2020.
Though I am pouring cold water on the Conservatives' prospects I think there are very few circumstances in which they wouldn't beat a Corbyn-led Labour. But, increasingly, they are relying on Labour not rectifying that mistake.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
UKIP have a better chance of being the coalition partner if they swapped Farage out and brought in Suzanne Evans. Thank goodness Farage will block that. Ironically the Conservatives need Farage to remain in place.
I disagree with you. Let's assume Evans make the kippers more electable, but they will only take seats from the Tories. Those Northern Labour seats every kipper sees through misty eyes can only become reality if enough WWC votes for UKIP. Farage, [ like Trump in the US ] is what attracts them.
I mean that UKIP would be the coalition partner with the Conservatives.
Or, to quote myself when previously referring to the Lib Dem electoral campaign: being a flasher today and castrated tomorrow is not a winning strategy.
The REMAIN camp's head of strategy is the former head of the LD GE2015 campaign. Anyone spot the reason why REMAIN are not 20 points ahead when against 3 or 4 separate LEAVE campaigns?
Half the Remain team worked at CCHQ when the Tories won a majority
Were they the ones that were right? They also have Labour's Will Straw and the chairman with BSE or is that the chairman of BSE (ex Marks & Sparks).
Leave of course have Farage, Galloway and Dominic Cummings
and REMAIN still cannot pull 20 points ahead......
They never were the most likely result is Remain 51 49 or 52 48 in my view
Was it ever clarified what would happen in the event of a numerical tie?
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
Of the two presented to members AFAIK Cameron had more of the right wing MP votes than Davis. Fox never made that stage FYI.
As far as I can recall, Cameron won because the Tories thought he was more electable.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
Of the two presented to members AFAIK Cameron had more of the right wing MP votes than Davis. Fox never made that stage FYI.
Fox was a strong third ahead of Clarke, most of the Clarke backers went to Cameron. Plenty of rightwingers like Bill Cash and Andrew Rosindell backed David Davis
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks
This is free if she has a Kindle or Kindle app. Short, but maybe disjointed.
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
McDonnel at the present rate.
Funniest post today. Well done ..
JackW - looking at the direction of the polls it is no joke. The Conservative party's chances are being sacrificed on the ambition of Osborne.
Utter piffle.
The corpse of any vaguely competent Conservative would have a healthier chance than the deceased form that presently represents the Labour party.
Polls over four years out are about as useful as EICIPM predictions.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
He did take the conservative party out of the EPP
Yes he did. But he did it just to win right wing MP votes and give the appearance of being a eurosceptic.
Or, to quote myself when previously referring to the Lib Dem electoral campaign: being a flasher today and castrated tomorrow is not a winning strategy.
The REMAIN camp's head of strategy is the former head of the LD GE2015 campaign. Anyone spot the reason why REMAIN are not 20 points ahead when against 3 or 4 separate LEAVE campaigns?
Half the Remain team worked at CCHQ when the Tories won a majority
Were they the ones that were right? They also have Labour's Will Straw and the chairman with BSE or is that the chairman of BSE (ex Marks & Sparks).
Leave of course have Farage, Galloway and Dominic Cummings
and REMAIN still cannot pull 20 points ahead......
They never were the most likely result is Remain 51 49 or 52 48 in my view
Was it ever clarified what would happen in the event of a numerical tie?
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"?
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks
Deer Hunting With Jesus by Joe Bageant is an enjoyable book.
Bageant was a (rare) socialist living in Republican Virginia. It's a dozen years old now but amazingly portentous with regard to the looming financial crisis.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
Of the two presented to members AFAIK Cameron had more of the right wing MP votes than Davis. Fox never made that stage FYI.
As far as I can recall, Cameron won because the Tories thought he was more electable.
Yes by the members but some of the MP support was for different reasons. Cameron also had a main promise of support for marriage. All that was delivered was £150 transferable allowance 4 years in.
It was handed to the Cabinet Office just days before two ministers, Oliver Letwin and Matthew Hancock, approved the handing over of a final rescue grant to the charity a week before its collapse.
Anybody who saw the BBC documentary that was on last month (and made by a personal friend of Batwoman) would see that giving that women control of any significant amount of money was bonkers. And she openly admits things on camera that should be taken further, including this final rescue grant.
Batwoman was using Kid Company money to fund a particular adult, flat, living costs, etc and even the personal friend of her's making the film basically said this seems very very wrong.
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks
"What's the matter with America?" (apparently published as "What's the matter with Kansas?" in the USA) is quite an easy yet illuminating read. It centres on the rise of blue collar conservatism, particularly looking at how this formerly left wing populist state has become one of the staunchest Republican ones.
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
McDonnel at the present rate.
Funniest post today. Well done ..
JackW - looking at the direction of the polls it is no joke. The Conservative party's chances are being sacrificed on the ambition of Osborne.
Utter piffle.
The corpse of any vaguely competent Conservative would have a healthier chance than the deceased form that presently represents the Labour party.
Polls over four years out are about as useful as EICIPM predictions.
" any vaguely competent Conservative" and Osborne are debateable concepts.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
I think people are conflating being Eurosceptic with being right wing, which is a mistake. Cameron ran as a eurosceptic centrist. He has maintained centrist credentials, but shown his euroscepticism was only skin deep.
Labour may not win the 2020 election but the Tories could easily lose it. The LD's could win, say, 20 seats of the Tories. Labour could win a few more. That should be enough. One thing is certain, the LDs are not going into another coalition with anyone, certainly the Tories.
Labour's own estimate before May was that if the Tories had over 290 seats it was pretty well certain they would lead the government. Therefore, to be forced from power it is likely they would have to lose more than 40 seats on current boundaries. I simply can't see that happening if Corbyn is the Labour leader. Nobody would be voting for the Liberal Democrats, tactically or otherwise, and the number of seats where Corbyn could tip the balance to Labour is vanishingly small compared to the number he will cause them to forfeit.
The interesting question would be whether the SNP vote holds up or not. If that were to fracture it could be a gamechanger for Labour. But I can't see that happening either at present.
Hang on a minute, wasn't that resolved last week when they were going on about tampons at the EU summit?
No. As always with the EU, the small win was overshadowed by a big loss. Tampon tax goes, but we were defeated on solar turbines, home insulation, smart meters, home wind turbines and plenty else.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"?
The point of the letters to the '22 Chairman is that they're anonymous. When the number gets to I think 55 then the nominations open for the leadership election without the Leader knowing from which MPs the letters came.
A letter to the PM directly telling to sack his Chancellor "or else" would identify the sender and just make the PM angry. And we wouldn't like to see him when he's angry.
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks
"What's the matter with America?" (apparently published as "What's the matter with Kansas?" in the USA) is quite an easy yet illuminating read. It centres on the rise of blue collar conservatism, particularly looking at how this formerly left wing populist state has become one of the staunchest Republican ones.
Very good but obviously a liberal perspective. Equally from one side, but very good is Obama's book during his first Senate term, Audacity of Hope.
Frank is from Kansas originally so he is unusually sympathetic for a WSJ writer, and does critique the Democrats in the book too. It is not a tirade against the US Right but rather an exploration of why it has attractions to poor Americans. One of its opening points is that the poorest county in the USA (in West Nebraska) voted 80% Republican.
Some of its conclusions are applicable to our own kippers too. I can recommend it, even though it is a decade old.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"?
The point of the letters to the '22 Chairman is that they're anonymous. When the number gets to I think 55 then the nominations open for the leadership election without the Leader knowing from which MPs the letters came.
A letter to the PM directly telling to sack his Chancellor "or else" would identify the sender and just make the PM angry. And we wouldn't like to see him when he's angry.
I think it's a confidence vote, not an election. Only if the leader loses it is there a full election.
Major resigned to force an actual election that would get his critics to accept there wasn't actually anyone who would do better.
EDIT- remarkable to reflect that if Labour had similar rules, Corbyn would have gone by now.
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
Read the thread header.
I did.
So Dan Jarvis who refused to stand previously is going to rescue the Labour party from Jezza and co, although we don't know how and then gain dozens of seats from the SNP and dozens of marginals from the Tories whilst restoring Labours reputation for economic competence at the same time as the most ruthless party in political history sits on its hands. Did I mention the boundary Commission?
Hang on a minute, wasn't that resolved last week when they were going on about tampons at the EU summit?
No. As always with the EU, the small win was overshadowed by a big loss. Tampon tax goes, but we were defeated on solar turbines, home insulation, smart meters, home wind turbines and plenty else.
What the f? I thought that was the best thing that we got from the summit, the idea that member states could set appropriate VAT rates on products - and it was actually all just about f.....g tampons! Seriously?
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
McDonnel at the present rate.
Funniest post today. Well done ..
JackW - looking at the direction of the polls it is no joke. The Conservative party's chances are being sacrificed on the ambition of Osborne.
Utter piffle.
The corpse of any vaguely competent Conservative would have a healthier chance than the deceased form that presently represents the Labour party.
Polls over four years out are about as useful as EICIPM predictions.
I'm not betting on the next GE until at least 2018.
There is no value in the current odds, any which way, given the huge number of events that could occur between now and GE2020, and particularly with so much uncertainty as to which leaders will be fighting it.
Ian Dale on LBC saying that Nicky Morgan, education secretary, could only give an interview about academies to the station if it went through the Treasury first.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
I think people are conflating being Eurosceptic with being right wing, which is a mistake. Cameron ran as a eurosceptic centrist. He has maintained centrist credentials, but shown his euroscepticism was only skin deep.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
McDonnel at the present rate.
Funniest post today. Well done ..
JackW - looking at the direction of the polls it is no joke. The Conservative party's chances are being sacrificed on the ambition of Osborne.
Utter piffle.
The corpse of any vaguely competent Conservative would have a healthier chance than the deceased form that presently represents the Labour party.
Polls over four years out are about as useful as EICIPM predictions.
I'm not betting on the next GE until at least 2018.
There is no value in the current odds, any which way, given the huge number of events that could occur between now and GE2020, and particularly with so much uncertainty as to which leaders will be fighting it.
True, it's too early to tell, even I have doubts now as to the certainty of the 2020 election outcome, and I was so sure about it that I predicted that come hell or high water the polls will refuse to shift from CON 38 LAB 31.
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
I think people are conflating being Eurosceptic with being right wing, which is a mistake. Cameron ran as a eurosceptic centrist. He has maintained centrist credentials, but shown his euroscepticism was only skin deep.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
That can't be right. We were told the smoking ban was going to be a boon for pubs.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Unfortunately, I am not sure there is a huge amount the government can do. The pub as purely a watering hole isn't really viable these days. It isn't just cost / supermarkets undercutting them, nor smoking ban, nor stricter drink driving, it is a whole raft of things. Demographic and societal changes, wider range of choice for things to do in ones spare time, wider availability of booze, the list just goes on and on.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron.
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"?
The point of the letters to the '22 Chairman is that they're anonymous. When the number gets to I think 55 then the nominations open for the leadership election without the Leader knowing from which MPs the letters came.
A letter to the PM directly telling to sack his Chancellor "or else" would identify the sender and just make the PM angry. And we wouldn't like to see him when he's angry.
I think it's a confidence vote, not an election. Only if the leader loses it is there a full election.
Major resigned to force an actual election that would get his critics to accept there wasn't actually anyone who would do better.
EDIT- remarkable to reflect that if Labour had similar rules, Corbyn would have gone by now.
Yes, I got that wrong, and too late to edit it now. The letters (15% of MPs) trigger a confidence vote, which if the PM wins he is safe for 12 months, if he loses he must resign and may NOT stand in the subsequent election.
Major got away with it because he resigned before he was pushed, and the rules were different in 1995.
Re TSE's very stupid tweet. I am afraid the twats are the ones who are still trying to support Osborne in spite of the fact he is the man most likely to lose the election for the Blues in 2020.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Who are the Conservatives going to lose the election to?
McDonnel at the present rate.
Funniest post today. Well done ..
JackW - looking at the direction of the polls it is no joke. The Conservative party's chances are being sacrificed on the ambition of Osborne.
Utter piffle.
The corpse of any vaguely competent Conservative would have a healthier chance than the deceased form that presently represents the Labour party.
Polls over four years out are about as useful as EICIPM predictions.
I'm not betting on the next GE until at least 2018.
There is no value in the current odds, any which way, given the huge number of events that could occur between now and GE2020, and particularly with so much uncertainty as to which leaders will be fighting it.
In broad terms I agree. However there is no uncertainty that Jezza is crap and betting positions should be taken with that view as default.
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins 3h3 hours ago Speaking to Cons MPs, strong view Osborne is damaged goods. Plenty don't think he's next leader now so his patronage has clear expiry date
Ian Dale on LBC saying that Nicky Morgan, education secretary, could only give an interview about academies to the station if it went through the Treasury first.
It sounds like The Thick of It. "These people think you've started a palace coup if you so much as don't cc them in on an email."
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Unfortunately, I am not sure there is a huge amount the government can do. The pub as purely a watering hole isn't really viable these days. It isn't just cost / supermarkets undercutting them, nor smoking ban, nor stricter drink driving, it is a whole raft of things. Demographic and societal changes, wider range of choice for things to do in ones spare time, wider availability of booze, the list just goes on and on.
Removing beer duty on trade sales of barrels would be a good starting point, as would business rate exemptions for community pubs in a similar way to that already given to charity shops.
I'm very surprised that with all the patronage of his office a whole day has gone by without IDS being slaughtered. In fact he seems to have been given a free pass to do and say whatever he fancies without rebuttal.
Perhaps they're working on the basis that given enough rope he'll hang himself. A very risky strategy given how difficult vampires are to destroy
Once a right-wing platform was defeated in 2005 the Tories were ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Cameron just as Labour will only be ready to accept a charismatic moderate like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis following a 2020 defeat.
I do not agree. Cameron secured the largest backing of MPs partly by promising to take the Conservative MEPs out of the europhile EPP and other indications. He then turned out to be another John Major.
Rubbish. Cameron fought the election as a moderate promising to reach out and change the party, the right-wing candidates were Liam Fox and David Davis and it is rewrioting history to suggest otherwise
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
No, he turned more centrist and europhile with each day in office.
If you wanted a rightwinger then you should have backed Fox then Davis, if you were stupid enough to think Cameron was the second coming of Thatcher you deserve everything you got!
I think people are conflating being Eurosceptic with being right wing, which is a mistake. Cameron ran as a eurosceptic centrist. He has maintained centrist credentials, but shown his euroscepticism was only skin deep.
Cameron's case for the leadership was essentially that he was a modern fresh face who would move the Party into the 21st century whilst retaining its fundamental positions. Blair's pitch to Labour in 1994 was very similar - I doubt the similarity is a coincidence.
But as soon as Blair had won the leadership he set about destroying the party positions he saw as electoral obstacles, so clause 4 and a whole raft of other policies were dumped, along with their supported in the shadow cabinet. Cameron, on the other hand, contented himself with a few PR photos with huskies - he tiptoed around divisive issues - his position on Europe was never entirely clear - he allowed both sceptics and Europhiles to believe he was one of them. This bought short-term peace in the party but in the long run it produced the current disaster, which may yet yet destroy both Cameron and his government.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Social and economic change I'm afraid - we young folk don't drink as much, believe it or not, but that's what the stats say, and not just because more of us are Muslims etc.
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"?
The point of the letters to the '22 Chairman is that they're anonymous. When the number gets to I think 55 then the nominations open for the leadership election without the Leader knowing from which MPs the letters came.
A letter to the PM directly telling to sack his Chancellor "or else" would identify the sender and just make the PM angry. And we wouldn't like to see him when he's angry.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"? These are letter to the Chairman of the 1922 for him to consolidate the view and say "I have 50 letters wanting Osborne out".
Off topic, but I am willing to bet that the 2020 election will be fought on the same constituency boundaries as 2015.
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
I'm very surprised that with all the patronage of his office a whole day has gone by without IDS being slaughtered. In fact he seems to have been given a free pass to do and say whatever he fancies without rebuttal.
Perhaps they're working on the basis that given enough rope he'll hang himself. A very risky strategy given how difficult vampires are to destroy
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
Till Patel challenges him and Heathite history repeats itself.
Off topic, but I am willing to bet that the 2020 election will be fought on the same constituency boundaries as 2015.
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Unfortunately, I am not sure there is a huge amount the government can do. The pub as purely a watering hole isn't really viable these days. It isn't just cost / supermarkets undercutting them, nor smoking ban, nor stricter drink driving, it is a whole raft of things. Demographic and societal changes, wider range of choice for things to do in ones spare time, wider availability of booze, the list just goes on and on.
Societal changes are the killer. Pubs will only stay open as long as they are profitable, so support your local pub. Smarter pubs with decent beer in the city seem to do well, neighbourhood locals in the suburbs much less so.
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
Till Patel challenges him and Heathite history repeats itself.
Cameron would win as he will be re-elected by the Membership
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
The government should subsidise unprofitable businesses?
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins 3h3 hours ago Speaking to Cons MPs, strong view Osborne is damaged goods. Plenty don't think he's next leader now so his patronage has clear expiry date
Alan Mak must be kicking himself. He went out of his way to brown nose Osborne... Mak has also managed to annoy his local association through backing Remain despite being elected as a Eurosceptic.
It is never a good situation when a key role if filled by someone who is unsackable despite their performance. This is where we are with Osborne. No matter how many errors, mistakes omnishambles budgets, missed targets, forced resignations etc etc this one man is completely unsackable by Cameron. Short of a video feed of copulating with the office cat, Osborne is unsackable as long as Cameron is the Leader. Or does anyone believe otherwise?
Surely the only way Osborne gets the sack is if Cameron himself is in the firing line. It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
An interesting thought if the letters to the 22 were aimed at Osborne. In theory they carry no weight unlike one's about Cameron as Leader. But 100+ might be enough to force Cameron into a change.
The letters would have to be about Cameron as leader, my thinking is that unless Cameron is challenged directly then Osborne is safe. If the PM thinks his own job is on the line then he will obviously do whatever is necessary to keep it, even if that means throwing GO under the bus. He saw what happened to Blair and it wasn't pretty.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"?
The point of the letters to the '22 Chairman is that they're anonymous. When the number gets to I think 55 then the nominations open for the leadership election without the Leader knowing from which MPs the letters came.
A letter to the PM directly telling to sack his Chancellor "or else" would identify the sender and just make the PM angry. And we wouldn't like to see him when he's angry.
What about a "unless Osborne is removed, I will write to you calling for a Leadership contest"? These are letter to the Chairman of the 1922 for him to consolidate the view and say "I have 50 letters wanting Osborne out".
As there's no formal written process for such letters, Cameron would probably call their bluff - and most likely get away with it. If it were 170 letters though (more than half) things might turn out differently.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Social and economic change I'm afraid - we young folk don't drink as much, believe it or not, but that's what the stats say, and not just because more of us are Muslims etc.
There was the report this week about how many nightclubs have closed down as well. It seemed to be a lot about the fact there are loads more options both for going out or staying in.
Off topic, but I am willing to bet that the 2020 election will be fought on the same constituency boundaries as 2015.
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
Into the House of Lords !!
But Cameron has pledged to neuter the Lords -- why would a Tory MP accept going into the rubber-stamping chamber when they have a chance to remain in the Commons where they can actually influence things??
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
Till Patel challenges him and Heathite history repeats itself.
Cameron would win as he will be re-elected by the Membership
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Social and economic change I'm afraid - we young folk don't drink as much, believe it or not, but that's what the stats say, and not just because more of us are Muslims etc.
Young people drunk plenty from supermarkets!
One sad side effect of the crazy price of a pint is that young kids these days prefer drugs - much cheaper to get smashed on.
Off topic, but I am willing to bet that the 2020 election will be fought on the same constituency boundaries as 2015.
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
Into the House of Lords !!
But Cameron has pledged to neuter the Lords -- why would a Tory MP accept going into the rubber-stamping chamber when they have a chance to remain in the Commons where they can actually influence things??
There are many near the end of their careers who would love the payoff
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
We have heard from Cameron, his answer is t***s and s**t.
As for Cameron doing an even more extreme u-turn on the leadership would be really terminal for the Tories, the other ministers and the MP's who are waiting and planning for a long time for Cameron's departure are not Gordon Brown you know, if Cameron changes his mind over leaving his own plotting ministers will throw him overboard anyway
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Social and economic change I'm afraid - we young folk don't drink as much, believe it or not, but that's what the stats say, and not just because more of us are Muslims etc.
A lot of it has to do with people commuting further to work, I suspect.
Off topic, but I am willing to bet that the 2020 election will be fought on the same constituency boundaries as 2015.
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
Agreed.
And austerity is over. Every time a cut is suggested a vocal group of half a dozen Tory MPs will emerge to prevent it. Osborne's borrowing targets are for the birds.
Off topic, but I am willing to bet that the 2020 election will be fought on the same constituency boundaries as 2015.
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
Agreed.
And austerity is over. Every time a cut is suggested a vocal group of half a dozen Tory MPs will emerge to prevent it. Osborne's borrowing targets are for the birds.
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
Till Patel challenges him and Heathite history repeats itself.
Cameron would win as he will be re-elected by the Membership
How? After the EU referendum whatever the result the membership would want a euroskeptic to tone the infighting down a bit.
In all of this chaos we have not heard from David Cameron. He must be furious and if I was him I would make a commitment now to lead the party into the 2020 election and beyond. It would have several effects in so far as any threat to Cameron's position would lose because he is greatly liked by the membership and would easily win an election for leader, it would close down the race for his succession and he would decimate Corbyn. Probably wont happen but if Cameron is angry enough who knows.
We have heard from Cameron, his answer is t***s and s**t.
As for Cameron doing an even more extreme u-turn on the leadership would be really terminal for the Tories, the other ministers and the MP's who are waiting and planning for a long time for Cameron's departure are not Gordon Brown you know, if Cameron changes his mind over leaving his own plotting ministers will throw him overboard anyway
Maybe but those who need time in the cabinet may quite like the idea of several years of stability
Comments
After six years of trying to get his much needed reforms through in the face of the Treasury, IDS got fed up with being seen as the scapegoat by Osborne and threw in the towel. I don't think GO liked to be played at his own game, but there's only so may times you can punch someone before they hit you back!
GO - and by implication to some extent DC - is starting to lose the dressing room. Could we see enough rebels to actually vote down the Budget I wonder?
Let's hope that IDS can spend tomorrow briefing his successor then disappear for a few weeks on holiday. He must be emotionally shattered by the past few days, I would bet at almost any odds that he stands down as an MP at the next election.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Whats-Matter-America-Resistable-American/dp/0436205394
It would only need a dozen rebel abstainers or half a dozen to vote down the Budget, that would leave the PM to either lose his majority by taking the whip from the rebels, or sacking his Chancellor.
The other option Would be if word gets back to the PM about the number of letters being sent to the '22 Chairman.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/American-History-50-Events-Washington-ebook/dp/B019Z2SU1E/ref=zg_bs_362335031_f_15
"A Labour amendment relating to VAT on solar panels has been backed by a dozen Conservative MPs furious at the inability of the Government to make changes because of EU rules."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3501565/After-humiliation-IDS-disability-benefits-George-Osborne-face-Budget-defeat-Commons-1994.html
The corpse of any vaguely competent Conservative would have a healthier chance than the deceased form that presently represents the Labour party.
Polls over four years out are about as useful as EICIPM predictions.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7014975/Coca-Cola-plan-to-gun-down-George-Osbornes-1bn-Sugar-Tax-in-the-European-courts.html
Bageant was a (rare) socialist living in Republican Virginia. It's a dozen years old now but amazingly portentous with regard to the looming financial crisis.
Cameron also had a main promise of support for marriage. All that was delivered was £150 transferable allowance 4 years in.
The interesting question would be whether the SNP vote holds up or not. If that were to fracture it could be a gamechanger for Labour. But I can't see that happening either at present.
A letter to the PM directly telling to sack his Chancellor "or else" would identify the sender and just make the PM angry. And we wouldn't like to see him when he's angry.
Some of its conclusions are applicable to our own kippers too. I can recommend it, even though it is a decade old.
Major resigned to force an actual election that would get his critics to accept there wasn't actually anyone who would do better.
EDIT- remarkable to reflect that if Labour had similar rules, Corbyn would have gone by now.
So Dan Jarvis who refused to stand previously is going to rescue the Labour party from Jezza and co, although we don't know how and then gain dozens of seats from the SNP and dozens of marginals from the Tories whilst restoring Labours reputation for economic competence at the same time as the most ruthless party in political history sits on its hands. Did I mention the boundary Commission?
It's a view ...
There is no value in the current odds, any which way, given the huge number of events that could occur between now and GE2020, and particularly with so much uncertainty as to which leaders will be fighting it.
One of the things that pisses me off most about successive governments is their failure to help pubs survive.
I've enjoyed some of the best moments of my life in pubs and made some great friends.. sad to see so many closing. It depresses me that my kids won't get to grow up in an era like the one I did, when - even before mobile phones made communication simpler - about two dozen friends would automatically gather together in a pub, and slam money into a good jukebox.
The world will be a less colourful place when they all close.
Major got away with it because he resigned before he was pushed, and the rules were different in 1995.
Details of current rules on pp8-9 of this document.
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins 3h3 hours ago
Speaking to Cons MPs, strong view Osborne is damaged goods. Plenty don't think he's next leader now so his patronage has clear expiry date
Perhaps they're working on the basis that given enough rope he'll hang himself. A very risky strategy given how difficult vampires are to destroy
But as soon as Blair had won the leadership he set about destroying the party positions he saw as electoral obstacles, so clause 4 and a whole raft of other policies were dumped, along with their supported in the shadow cabinet. Cameron, on the other hand, contented himself with a few PR photos with huskies - he tiptoed around divisive issues - his position on Europe was never entirely clear - he allowed both sceptics and Europhiles to believe he was one of them. This bought short-term peace in the party but in the long run it produced the current disaster, which may yet yet destroy both Cameron and his government.
These are letter to the Chairman of the 1922 for him to consolidate the view and say "I have 50 letters wanting Osborne out".
We've just seen how willing to rebel Tory MPs are, and boundary changes will be particularly contentious since some Tory MPs (probably 10 or more) would be being asked to vote themselves into redundancy.
https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/711600527180746752
Osborne wont be there for long, not after this fiasco, so why would someone risk their neck for him.
One sad side effect of the crazy price of a pint is that young kids these days prefer drugs - much cheaper to get smashed on.
As for Cameron doing an even more extreme u-turn on the leadership would be really terminal for the Tories, the other ministers and the MP's who are waiting and planning for a long time for Cameron's departure are not Gordon Brown you know, if Cameron changes his mind over leaving his own plotting ministers will throw him overboard anyway
And austerity is over. Every time a cut is suggested a vocal group of half a dozen Tory MPs will emerge to prevent it. Osborne's borrowing targets are for the birds.
After the EU referendum whatever the result the membership would want a euroskeptic to tone the infighting down a bit.