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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbynus interruptus would destroy Tory hubris about 2020 i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbynus interruptus would destroy Tory hubris about 2020 immediately
Just look at the above tweets, coupled with various ministers at the DWP arguing publicly over how good/bad IDS was, In normal circumstances the way the Tory party is acting over the EU and IDS’s attack on the government not helping the poor, and the cherry on the parfait, allies of Cameron welcoming a leadership challenge, you wouldn’t want to put a single penny on them winning the 20…
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Looks like a good combo. I'm on (but then I'm on about 20 contenders, so I shouldn't be taken as a tipster for this).
DYOR.
Gove's role influencing the choice of leader, and whoever that leader is, could be critical.
With every day that passes it seems to become less and less likely that the Tories will be able to pull themselves together after the referendum. whatever the result. How Cameron must regret not following through when he told his party to stop banging on about Europe!
FWIW as a Labour activist and opponent of Corbyn my view is that it is as certain as these things can be that the PLP will move against him at some point. The prospect of a Labour win in 2020 will make a coup more likely. The widespread assumption that the membership consists entirely of committed corbynites is fallacious - most of the new members have done nothing except vote in the leadership contest, very few CLP posts have been won by Momentum supporters and the vast majority of activists and Councillors that I know are opposed to the leadership. At my own CLP Momentum candidates were crushed by 4-1 by moderates at the AGM.
Corbyn is not as strong as Momentum, and the tory press, would like you to believe - they both have their own reasons for creating an aura of invincibility around him which is not borne out by events at the grassroots. The anti-Corbyn forces are now much more organised amongst the membership, and they have most MPs, Councillors and the party organisation on their side. A new leadership contest would not be a shoo-in for McDonnell or another Corbynite candidate.
I'm just trying to be honest on how I see politics.
Jeremy needs to stay for a while
Labour ARE leading the attack on this. The "Labour aren't attacking" attack has about as much credibility as an Osborne budget forecast
Just got back from Vote Leave leafleting on a newish estate. Lots of families with young children plus pensioners. Now I feel like I've accomplished something this weekend!
It was handed to the Cabinet Office just days before two ministers, Oliver Letwin and Matthew Hancock, approved the handing over of a final rescue grant to the charity a week before its collapse.
He wasn't seen as a credible PM, the same will apply to Corbyn.
Corbyn's Labour have been drowned out of the media since it was dominated by stories of their 80s and 90s friends and acquaintances.....
OK.
Remember when Labour under Ed led in the polls, but we all saw in the supplementaries the voters preferred the Dave over Ed. Dave and George over the two Eds on the economy.
Deep down, we know all know Corbyn's dire personal ratings mean, coupled with the perceptions that he is a terrorist sympathiser/risk to national security.
Perhaps the result will be a Lib-Dem resurgence (stop laughing at the back there!)
Corbyn is the gift that keeps on giving and in such abundance and sustained beneficence that he should be declared a national treasure and shrines be erected for all to worship for his sustained health and continuance as Labour leader.
However, it briefly gave Ptolemy control of Coele-Syria and the confidence to let Seleucus go try and reclaim his old satrapy of Babylonia. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Seleucus was a clever chap and through military and diplomatic means took not only Babylonia but, in time, all the eastern portion of Antigonus' empire. A couple of decades later, it was Seleucus' elephants that prevented Demetrius rescuing his father at Ipsus, ending the Antigonid Empire [although the dynasty did go on to become the royal line of Macedon].
Or, to quote myself when previously referring to the Lib Dem electoral campaign: being a flasher today and castrated tomorrow is not a winning strategy.
Corbyn is safer if:
Labour are so far behind that there seems no prospect of a win even with a new leader; or
Labour are so far in front that it looks like they can win with Corbyn
Corbyn is less safe if:
Labour are doing just well enough to suggest they could win with a new leader but not well enough to suggest they could win with Corbyn
Except that Osborne's budget was crap, Corbyn's response set the tone for the last few days and Osborne's credibility is dust. The debate has become one of basic morality - thats the message the leadership have been laying out out for a while and has now been joined by IDS and other Tories.
Ignore talk of a coup - if there is an attempt it will be about effective as Purnell going in 2009. The bitterati/First 11/G10/whatever they want to call themselves might be mainstream PLP but they're not mainstream Labour membership. Saying "Corbyn is crap" over and over doesn't make him crap. The government are tearing themselves apart over the immorality of taking from the poor to give to the well off. That helps Corbyn not hinders him.
MikeK (David Laws seemed to have aged noticeably).
I agree but he's still just as arrogant. This man should never have been allowed back in government after his 'expenses' debacle. He's got a bloody cheek writing a book, when he was only an MP for five minutes.
I take it he and Clegg were behind the stitching up Michael Gove and the Queen?
I really don't like politics at the moment. MPs' from all sides need to have a bit more self-awareness about how things look to the public.
A good article from a democrat now supporting The Donald.
Not sure I agree with TSE on this - I don't usually to be honest.
2020 is a lifetime away - this will probably all be long forgotten. Has it damaged Cameron and especially Osborne ? Yes. for the moment but if REMAIN win well on June 23rd, none of it will matter.
As for hubris, well, the Conservatives carried on with their self-immolation even after Kinnock. I suspect they thought any Labour leader was beatable, even Tony Blair. The disconnect was so strong they carried on even after losing 2,000 Councillors in a single night in 1995.
Does the current crop think they would still win if they were facing Jarvis or someone else ? I don't know but they seem supremely confident of beating Corbyn (and with good reason). However, the public dislikes dysfunctional parties as we know so this round of Conservative in-fighting doesn't augur well for the party's candidates in six weeks or so.
Probably best time to move against him would be a post Brexit referendum contest.
The Tories are at greater risk of leaking voters to UKIP than Labour at the moment as Labour was more at risk of leaking voters to the LDs than the Tories in 2005
Nicky Morgan, leadership contender? LOL.
Batwoman was using Kid Company money to fund a particular adult, flat, living costs, etc and even the personal friend of her's making the film basically said this seems very very wrong.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06zw47r
Wonder why it isn't available on iPlayer?
Cruz 53
Kasich 29
Trump 11
Numbers 10 and 11 say that she attacked Duncan Smith without their approval. They could prove it by removing her as Pensions Minister."
ToryDiary | By Mark Wallace
Osbo now down to 13% chance as next CON leader on Betfair exchange.
As you know, there's a widespread belief that Conservatives are wankers who take money from defenceless poor people to give it to pampered rich arseholes. IDS has just said that it's true.
My current view is that the coup will be later rather than sooner - 2018 maybe - but events are moving so quickly at the moment that it is hard to be sure.
Since he is such a Cameron fanatic perhaps TSE should also remember his idol's remarks regarding tweets before he posts anymore.
Clinton 38
Trump 36
Sanders 48
Trump 37
Both Cruz and Kasich beat both Democrats comfortably. If Trump lost Utah he would be the first Republican to do since 1964 when Barry Goldwater lost the state to LBJ
Dr Andrew Pocock, the former British high commissioner to Nigeria, has now revealed that a large group of the missing girls were spotted by British and American surveillance officials shortly after their disappearance, but experts felt nothing could be done.
He told The Sunday Times that Western governments felt 'powerless' to help as any rescue attempt would have been too high risk - with Boko Haram terrorists using the girls as human shields.
----
Barack - So darling what have you done today
Michelle - I made a tweet for that "Bring our girls back hashtag"
Barack - Errhhh right..
He then turned out to be another Major? You mean he was the first Tory leader since Major to win an election?
Another test of the increasingly discredited British plod
Why did Rubio go odds on after finishing third in Iowa? We'll never know.
The second point is we will probably never know why IDS apparently agreed to the changes on Wednesday morning and then resigned on Friday. The likelihood is that he felt he was pushed into a corner and couldn't practicably oppose the changes. If he had wanted to damage the Government he would have resigned Wednesday morning. He didn't, and instead resigned at what was probably the least inauspicious time. I think this is a pre-emptive strike against Osborne, aimed at keeping him out of the leadership, at a time when a Leave vote could lead to Cameron standing down earlier rather than later.
This relatively new Tory member certainly didn't expect Cameron and Osborne's behaviour of the past few weeks, having supported the pair of them for ten years.
Can anyone recommend a book on American politics that is entertaining and informative, like a Bill Bryson style, accessible to someone whose only knowledge of the topic is having watched The West Wing? For my sister. Thanks