Do you truly think a better deal was available. I think it's abundantly clear that the EU either can't or won't give us a better deal. The French would rather see us leave than get what we demand (which is why notions that we'll find a free trade deal without conditions and without free movement I'm skeptical about, but we should I think Vote Leave anyway).
Given what Dave came back with I think he should have tried. He should have exhausted all means at his disposal, and if he couldn't get a good deal, he should have stuck to what he said he might do and recommend leave.
Instead we have the PM trying to persuade us that he's got the UK a good deal, when he plainly hasn't. He looks a bloody fool doing so.
Even if I was a Remainer, and I honestly could have been persuaded, I would still call Cameron's deal a balls-up.
The division in the Tory party is less about the leadership backing Remain than the way they've done it. Backbenchers had to force them to restore purdah. It took the electoral commission to make them have a fair question. Cameron went around promoting his deal, even after promising he'd stop doing it, while he inflicted a gag on Leave supporters. MPs were threatened with their careers ending if they backed Leave. Gove had warning shots fired across his nose that threatened sacking if he spoke out too much. Ministers were banned from accessing papers in their own departments, but only Leave supporting ones. Accurate NI data on immigration is being suppressed. Businessmen have been threatened with losing honours and govt contracts. Cameron claims Leave supporters don't care about job losses. Etc etc.
Cameron and his Remain supporters have done everything to poison debate. Yet they will be the first ones to complain about a split.
Am I reading this correctly, that actually the Tories aren't really down much on other polls we have seen, perhaps -2%, it is UKIP down a big chunk and all that has gone to Labour?
It's not either or, though, is it? First, it's segregated meetings at mosques. Then it turns into segregated meetings at universities because the speaker doesn't like it. Then we have segregation of pupils in primary schools. And an attitude to the female of the species which thinks that "she" is worth less than a "he" is going to make it easier for those many "shes" of many ages to be raped and to be ignored by the authorities.
No, I don't think I agree. Like a lot of slippery slope arguments, it elides things one doesn't feel are sensible with things which are monstrous, and implies that one must lead to the other. I think that standing up to abuse and belittling of women is absolutely crucial, but demanding that they sit in the same space rather than a parallel space is not. And if one attacks both, it risks devaluing the important part, because it suggests a rejection of the entire culture rather than only of the parts that are actually harmful. Apart from being dubious as an attitude (all our cultures have peculiarities, frankly), it is an ineffective approach.
I find your approach odd. You seem to find it very difficult to understand that there is a common theme to all of these items: a hatred or contempt for women, a belief that they are lesser beings or less worthy of protection, education, rights. You seem to think that some of this is "not being sensible" and others "monstrous". Well, I agree that child rape is monstrous.
But unlike you I reject a culture which views women as lesser beings and not just those bits of it which lead to child rape. A culture which says that girls should be denied education or a role in the public space is not acceptable provided the men from such a culture manage, through heroic self-control, not to rape the women they think not as good as them.
Can you imagine 30 years ago a left winger defending gender segregation? In an effort to not upset certain voting blocks, left wingers are now convincing themselves its just a "peculiarity". I feel so alienated from both left and right these days.
Indeed: to call gender segregation a "peculiarity" is evidence that the leftist frog (aka Mr N Palmer) has been very effectively boiled.
I don't feel alienated. I feel repulsed by such an attitude.
@JGForsyth: Suspect we'll see Corbynistas tweeting this poll out en masse. But it is just 1 poll, and doesn't tally with others https://t.co/WlBaUm6QFX
Maybe but it ought to be a warning to the Tories (a) not to be complacent or hubristic; and (b) that voters punish divided parties.
A division of Cameron's own making, a rush to get the referendum done, feeble negotiation, and a laughable result that he personally has been talking up. All of that was avoidable. If he waited until 2017, played hard ball with the EU, and came back with a better deal, he might have a lot more support within his own party and the wider public.
And he's supposedly good at politics.
It's hard to know how else he could have played it; there were problems with all strategies and dates. Leave it later, and there would be more time for the poison within the party to fester with few advantages (he probably wouldn't have got a better deal).
The only thing he could have relied upon was events, and they do not always work in your favour.
Now it's up to the Conservative party to act as grown ups, and not puerile incompetents. And yes, that includes you, Boris.
A division of Cameron's own making, a rush to get the referendum done, feeble negotiation, and a laughable result that he personally has been talking up. All of that was avoidable. If he waited until 2017, played hard ball with the EU, and came back with a better deal, he might have a lot more support within his own party and the wider public.
And he's supposedly good at politics.
I rather think he's better at politics than his critics, what with becoming PM and all that, and managing to keep the divisions in the Conservative Party under control for nearly a decade so far.
In this particular case, what you say is barmy. How could it possibly have been better to let the thing drag on for two years, allowing the renegotiation to clash with the French and German elections, and leaving less time for the party to regroup after the referendum?
And, given that he was always going to be in favour of remain, a whole summer of the migrant crisis on the news.
You are in a slightly sticky spot. You need someone smart to fight your corner and avoid any risk of making an awkward situation worse. And the government puts up Grayling.
Under normal circumstances, we might not have been surprised to see a collapse in the government share. We have an unprecedented level of division within the Conservative Party over the EU, a battle which is very much being fought front and centre with the current Prime Minister on one side and a Prime Ministerial hopeful on the other. Under such circumstances, polling support tends to suffer – there’s nothing worse than party disunity to prompt a polling freefall.
However, the headline figures are somewhat misleading, and few should be in any doubt of ICM’s view of our own survey. Firstly, both the Conservative and Labour shares are affected by rounding, with the Conservative’s 36.4% being rounded down and Labour’s 35.6% being rounded up, thus creating parity. However, if only 1 or 2 people had fallen a different way on this poll, there would have at least been a 2-point Conservative lead.
Secondly, ICM has developed a new method of turnout modelling, which, we think, much better controls for raw poll samples’ often observed tendency to contain too many Labour voters/intenders. Had we applied our new model, it alone would have resulted in a 3-point Conservative lead on our headline figures. We plan on launching this new modelling in the very near future, although it will remain a work-in-progress.
Thirdly, this is the seventh out of ten ICM phone polls since the 2015 General Election which recalls voting in Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. Unfortunately the ability of Recall by Past Vote weighting to correct for this is mitigated on this occasion (and thus has only a negligible counter-impact), by a sizable and unusual number of 2015 Conservative voters transitioning to Labour on future intentions.
The word ‘rogue’ is too often used in polling analysis, but in our view it is hard to believe this phone poll will escape such labelling.
@JGForsyth: Suspect we'll see Corbynistas tweeting this poll out en masse. But it is just 1 poll, and doesn't tally with others https://t.co/WlBaUm6QFX
Maybe but it ought to be a warning to the Tories (a) not to be complacent or hubristic; and (b) that voters punish divided parties.
A division of Cameron's own making, a rush to get the referendum done, feeble negotiation, and a laughable result that he personally has been talking up. All of that was avoidable. If he waited until 2017, played hard ball with the EU, and came back with a better deal, he might have a lot more support within his own party and the wider public.
And he's supposedly good at politics.
Well quite. If he had played it tough, haggled until 2017 and come back with his Bloomberg speech he would be cruising off into the distance with a 80+% Remain vote now.
I mean I am a pretty hardcore leaver, would I have liked Bloomberg, not really, could I have lived with it, almost certainly.
@JGForsyth: Suspect we'll see Corbynistas tweeting this poll out en masse. But it is just 1 poll, and doesn't tally with others https://t.co/WlBaUm6QFX
Maybe but it ought to be a warning to the Tories (a) not to be complacent or hubristic; and (b) that voters punish divided parties.
Inevitable. Osborne/Cameron strategy of picking a fight with their party backfires.
LOL. The party is split pretty much down the middle, and the EU obsessives are busier attacking Cameron than the EU. The idea that one side is attacking their own more than the other is ridiculous: just see the anti-Cameron sentiment from Conservatives on here.
The EU obsessives really don't seem to like him, despite the fact he's delivered what they've been asking for - a referendum.
If they're not careful, they'll end up with a stonking remain vote that will put another referendum off the cards for a generation (*), half of them out of jobs, and Corbyn in Number 10. Worse, their new leader might well be an anti-EU loser who will go into the election after next obsessing about Europe, and seeing a repeat of 1997.
For some EU obsessives within the Conservative party, it'll be all they deserve.
And, given that he was always going to be in favour of remain, a whole summer of the migrant crisis on the news.
That does seem to be the most likely explanation for Cameron's actions, he was never seriously considering leave (and don't our friends know it), and doesn't want to wait for some calamity to provoke the public into backing leave. So we end up with this ludicrous spectacle of the PM showing us his finery when everyone, even Remainers, can see he's in the nude.
@JGForsyth: Suspect we'll see Corbynistas tweeting this poll out en masse. But it is just 1 poll, and doesn't tally with others https://t.co/WlBaUm6QFX
Maybe but it ought to be a warning to the Tories (a) not to be complacent or hubristic; and (b) that voters punish divided parties.
A division of Cameron's own making, a rush to get the referendum done, feeble negotiation, and a laughable result that he personally has been talking up. All of that was avoidable. If he waited until 2017, played hard ball with the EU, and came back with a better deal, he might have a lot more support within his own party and the wider public.
And he's supposedly good at politics.
Do you truly think a better deal was available. I think it's abundantly clear that the EU either can't or won't give us a better deal. The French would rather see us leave than get what we demand (which is why notions that we'll find a free trade deal without conditions and without free movement I'm skeptical about, but we should I think Vote Leave anyway).
Besides the division would have happened no matter what was negotiated as nothing short of an unconditional Leave recommendation would have satisfied many.
I think there was. We could have forced a supermajority requirement for EMU regulations. If Dave hadn't made noises about not being able to "countenance" leaving the EU and basically ruled out ever being in favour of leaving we would have got a better deal. He went into the negotiation having already stated his position not being open to leaving which is why we got nothing.
On benefits and all of that rubbish, I've always said it is our benefits system that has issues. We need to copy the Swiss system of fully contributory benefits and higher wages with no in-working benefits and no employer's NI.
And, given that he was always going to be in favour of remain, a whole summer of the migrant crisis on the news.
That does seem to be the most likely explanation for Cameron's actions, he was never seriously considering leave (and don't our friends know it), and doesn't want to wait for some calamity to provoke the public into backing leave. So we end up with this ludicrous spectacle of the PM showing us his finery when everyone, even Remainers, can see he's in the nude.
On the other hand, he's delivered a referendum a year into his time as a PM: the coalition would have prevented one in the last parliament. You'd expect leavers in his own party to think that was a good thing. Instead, we get this unnecessary sh*t.
I honestly think most leavers believe they've already lost. Which is odd, as I'm far from sure they're right.
The division in the Tory party is less about the leadership backing Remain than the way they've done it. Backbenchers had to force them to restore purdah. It took the electoral commission to make them have a fair question. Cameron went around promoting his deal, even after promising he'd stop doing it, while he inflicted a gag on Leave supporters. MPs were threatened with their careers ending if they backed Leave. Gove had warning shots fired across his nose that threatened sacking if he spoke out too much. Ministers were banned from accessing papers in their own departments, but only Leave supporting ones. Accurate NI data on immigration is being suppressed. Businessmen have been threatened with losing honours and govt contracts. Cameron claims Leave supporters don't care about job losses. Etc etc.
Cameron and his Remain supporters have done everything to poison debate. Yet they will be the first ones to complain about a split.
Utter nonsense from beginning to end. There's not a single true thing in your list of complaints, other than perhaps the point about job losses and the fact that Cameron, unsurprisingly, has been defending his deal, as is perfectly reasonable.
The simple truth is that Cameron has done exactly what he said, has delivered the referendum, exactly as promised, and has allowed not only MPs, but even Cabinet ministers to campaign on either side. He has put up with some very dubious stuff from some of his Leaver colleagues, such as IDS's unpleasant 'dodgy dossier' phrase, or Gove's nonsense over the weekend claiming that the Remain side were predicting all sorts of things that no-one has claimed. But all that is normal politics, and Leavers get far too excitable about it.
Of course it's obvious why the Leavers spend so much energy attacking Cameron, even though it is equally obvious that it's counter-productive.
I find your approach odd. You seem to find it very difficult to understand that there is a common theme to all of these items: a hatred or contempt for women, a belief that they are lesser beings or less worthy of protection, education, rights. You seem to think that some of this is "not being sensible" and others "monstrous". Well, I agree that child rape is monstrous.
But unlike you I reject a culture which views women as lesser beings and not just those bits of it which lead to child rape. A culture which says that girls should be denied education or a role in the public space is not acceptable provided the men from such a culture manage, through heroic self-control, not to rape the women they think not as good as them.
I'm not sure we can advance much with the discussion. I don't agree with girls being denied education or a role in the public space or with thinking of women as lesser beings. But having audiences sit separately seems to me odd rather than outrageous, and tackling it a distraction from the things we should clearly reject. If the female part of the audience were only allowed to ask questions after the men, or disadvantaged in some other way, that would be different.
But I'm repeating myself, so I should leave it there...
The division in the Tory party is less about the leadership backing Remain than the way they've done it. Backbenchers had to force them to restore purdah. It took the electoral commission to make them have a fair question. Cameron went around promoting his deal, even after promising he'd stop doing it, while he inflicted a gag on Leave supporters. MPs were threatened with their careers ending if they backed Leave. Gove had warning shots fired across his nose that threatened sacking if he spoke out too much. Ministers were banned from accessing papers in their own departments, but only Leave supporting ones. Accurate NI data on immigration is being suppressed. Businessmen have been threatened with losing honours and govt contracts. Cameron claims Leave supporters don't care about job losses. Etc etc.
Cameron and his Remain supporters have done everything to poison debate. Yet they will be the first ones to complain about a split.
Utter nonsense from beginning to end. There's not a single true thing in your list of complaints, other than perhaps the point about job losses and the fact that Cameron, unsurprisingly, has been defending his deal, as is perfectly reasonable.
The simple truth is that Cameron has done exactly what he said, has delivered the referendum, exactly as promised, and has allowed not only MPs, but even Cabinet ministers to campaign on either side. He has put up with some very dubious stuff from some of his Leaver colleagues, such as IDS's unpleasant 'dodgy dossier' phrase, or Gove's nonsense over the weekend claiming that the Remain side were predicting all sorts of things that no-one has claimed. But all that is normal politics, and Leavers get far too excitable about it.
Of course it's obvious why the Leavers spend so much energy attacking Cameron, even though it is equally obvious that it's counter-productive.
'Accurate NI data on immigration is being suppressed. '
Well quite. If he had played it tough, haggled until 2017 and come back with his Bloomberg speech he would be cruising off into the distance with a 80+% Remain vote now.
I mean I am a pretty hardcore leaver, would I have liked Bloomberg, not really, could I have lived with it, almost certainly.
What really sticks in the craw is the bluster before the general election compared to the feeble result, and it doesn't seem the the government tried very hard to get a great deal. Instead they gave up and sprinted to the finish line.
I think there was. We could have forced a supermajority requirement for EMU regulations.
I very, very much doubt that. Do you have any evidence in support of that? Some statements from European politicians, bureaucrats, journalists or think-tanks indicating it might be a possibility, perhaps?
Matt Singh @MattSingh_ 42s42 seconds ago As @martinboon notes, this looks a bit roguish, compounded by rounding. But for the record it's the first post GE2015 not to show a Con lead
Am I reading this correctly, that actually the Tories aren't really down much on other polls we have seen, perhaps -2%, it is UKIP down a big chunk and all that has gone to Labour?
Think thats mostly right. Khan's support for gay marriage removes all doubt in my mind that he is influenced by hardline religion. Although I would prefer he calls it out more. I think that's Labour's problem. Not that they are extreme, but they go softly softly on religious conservatism so as not to upset voters. We really shouldn't be supporting events with segregated audiences.
It's an interesting borderline case, in my opinion. I was invited to speak to a segregated audience myself some 10 years ago, and agreed on the basis that both halves had equal opportunity to put questions - the women were just as challenging as the men. I didn't feel that it was reasonable as a guest at a mosque to lay down the law on how they ought to sit. But Mohammed Sarwar,then a Glasgow Muslim MP, told me that he'd said from the start that he'd never speak to a segregated audience - "segregate if you like, but don't expect me to come if you do". I thought it was easier for him as a Muslim, but I accept that I might have been wrong.
Yeah, but; most folk on here failed to understand his election results since 1945 initial snalysis. The BrExit referendum field-data may be as sparse as their 2015 GE winnings.
And, given that he was always going to be in favour of remain, a whole summer of the migrant crisis on the news.
That does seem to be the most likely explanation for Cameron's actions, he was never seriously considering leave (and don't our friends know it), and doesn't want to wait for some calamity to provoke the public into backing leave. So we end up with this ludicrous spectacle of the PM showing us his finery when everyone, even Remainers, can see he's in the nude.
On the other hand, he's delivered a referendum a year into his time as a PM: the coalition would have prevented one in the last parliament. You'd expect leavers in his own party to think that was a good thing. Instead, we get this unnecessary sh*t.
I honestly think most leavers believe they've already lost. Which is odd, as I'm far from sure they're right.
Oh come off it. He proposed the referendum because he was concerned about the Kippers taking his votes before the GE. He held that referendum after the GE because the half the party going for OUT right now would have nailed his hide to the barn if he didn't, and made his small majority completely unworkable. He neither wanted nor expected to hold the referendum, expecting to ditch it in coalition negotiations, and was hugely irritated to find he actually had to hold it. So don't crack on like it was a huge favour to anyone else except himself and his prospects at the last GE.
He then holds a "negotiation" in which he tells everyone that there is no way he is going to leave, and that he wants to use the referendum to "dock" the UK with the EU. Before asking for nothing, coming home with less, and then telling us what a wonderful deal he had got, so good infact that if we were not in the EU he would join on the strength of it, yes sirreeee.
Its a fraud from beginning to end with no though put electoral expediency, and conspicuously so, that is why he is getting so little respect.
@JGForsyth: Suspect we'll see Corbynistas tweeting this poll out en masse. But it is just 1 poll, and doesn't tally with others https://t.co/WlBaUm6QFX
Maybe but it ought to be a warning to the Tories (a) not to be complacent or hubristic; and (b) that voters punish divided parties.
A division of Cameron's own making, a rush to get the referendum done, feeble negotiation, and a laughable result that he personally has been talking up. All of that was avoidable. If he waited until 2017, played hard ball with the EU, and came back with a better deal, he might have a lot more support within his own party and the wider public.
And he's supposedly good at politics.
Well quite. If he had played it tough, haggled until 2017 and come back with his Bloomberg speech he would be cruising off into the distance with a 80+% Remain vote now.
I mean I am a pretty hardcore leaver, would I have liked Bloomberg, not really, could I have lived with it, almost certainly.
My view precisely and I would guess that of a good few other reluctant LEAVE leaning Tories.
Brilliant! You support the statement that 'accurate NI data on immigration is being suppressed' by posting a link to an article stating that the ONS is reviewing whether the figures are accurate and considering how to collate them:
“When available, DWP and HMRC data on national insurance number activity (those who have applied for a national insurance number and are still active in the UK) will be incorporated to provide additional information for the users of our statistics and a more complete picture,” it said in a statement.
In other words, the ONS (not Cameron, who has nothing to do with this) is planning to do the diametric opposite of suppressing information.
Something about the EU referendum makes Leavers lose reason.
Churchill too, he was in favour of a United States of Europe.
For them, not us though.
His Grandson says Churchill would vote for Remain if he were alive today.
He wouldn't have advocated for us to join in the first place though. That's the view of a lot of Tories I know, if it were a vote to join they would never say yes, but they are voting to remain.
Brilliant! You support the statement that 'accurate NI data on immigration is being suppressed' by posting a link to an article stating that the ONS is reviewing whether the figures are accurate and considering how to collate them:
“When available, DWP and HMRC data on national insurance number activity (those who have applied for a national insurance number and are still active in the UK) will be incorporated to provide additional information for the users of our statistics and a more complete picture,” it said in a statement.
In other words, the ONS (not Cameron, who has nothing to do with this) is planning to do the diametric opposite of suppressing information.
Something about the EU referendum makes Leavers lose reason.
By all means carry on being rude, but if millions like me sit on our hands rather than vote Tory at the next GE, Corbyn's getting his hands on the controls.
How many more points do you think Osborne can knock off the his party's figures with the next shambles of a budget?
I think there was. We could have forced a supermajority requirement for EMU regulations.
I very, very much doubt that. Do you have any evidence in support of that? Some statements from European politicians, bureaucrats, journalists or think-tanks indicating it might be a possibility, perhaps?
So when Cameron told us before that he thought he could get it was he badly advised or lying ? If the PM of the UK is badly advised then someone needs a serious kick up the arse.
Interesting to see 538 making the explicit Trump:UKIP comparison. How do people think the General Election would have gone [in England & Wales] if the only two candidates were Farage & Miliband?
Is Hillary Clinton the Democrat's very own Ed Miliband ?
By all means carry on being rude, but if millions like me sit on our hands rather than vote Tory at the next GE, Corbyn's getting his hands on the controls.
Churchill too, he was in favour of a United States of Europe.
He was indeed – but for ‘them’ not necessarily for the UK.
I really need to do that thread that Thatcher was the greatest Pro-EU politician in UK history, greater than Heath or Cameron.
The signing of the Single European Act, one of her finest achievements.
Amazingly it's Osborne who has put me in the Leave camp. It has been his (and Cable's) push to export outside of the EU that has convinced me we don't need to be in the EU, we've gone from about 65% of total exports going to the EU 10 years ago to around 35% today and our export growth to non-EU countries is growing by 4% annually while our EU exports are shrinking by 2% annually. Over time we will become further detached from the EU in terms of trade and exports but we will still have to comply with the rules and pay in a net £11bn per year (and rising given that we are growing faster the EU by a fair amount).
By all means carry on being rude, but if millions like me sit on our hands rather than vote Tory at the next GE, Corbyn's getting his hands on the controls.
In other words, the ONS (not Cameron, who has nothing to do with this) is planning to do the diametric opposite of suppressing information.
Something about the EU referendum makes Leavers lose reason.
Oh for christ's sake, you do come up with some unbelievable asskissery sometimes. I suppose the government has nothing to do with the immigration service either, and yet by some miracle, the number of rejections of lawful visa applications through embassies suddenly went up by 18% last year. How could this have happened ? Easy, the word was sent down to look very closely at every application and give no benefit of the doubt whatsoever. The idea that there is no ministerial influence in the executive agencies is fatuous.
William Hague who fought the 2001 General Election on 'saving the pound' and being in Europe not run by Europe is Pro-EU.
I've seen it all now.
Thing is: there's an equally strong argument to say that Conservative policy on the EU has become increasingly eurosceptic since the late 80s.
Most pro-EEC party there is Pro-SEA Pro-ERM Pro-Maastrict but with opt outs Wait and see on the euro Rule out euro for next parliament Rule out euro for good Referendum on constitution End to ever closer union Won't let matters rest there Repatriation of social and employment powers Bloomberg speech EU referendum Renegotiation Almost half the parliamentary party and over half of all activists wanting to Leave
And, given that he was always going to be in favour of remain, a whole summer of the migrant crisis on the news.
That does seem to be the most likely explanation for Cameron's actions, he was never seriously considering leave (and don't our friends know it), and doesn't want to wait for some calamity to provoke the public into backing leave. So we end up with this ludicrous spectacle of the PM showing us his finery when everyone, even Remainers, can see he's in the nude.
On the other hand, he's delivered a referendum a year into his time as a PM: the coalition would have prevented one in the last parliament. You'd expect leavers in his own party to think that was a good thing. Instead, we get this unnecessary sh*t.
I honestly think most leavers believe they've already lost. Which is odd, as I'm far from sure they're right.
Oh come off it. He proposed the referendum because he was concerned about the Kippers taking his votes before the GE. He held that referendum after the GE because the half the party going for OUT right now would have nailed his hide to the barn if he didn't, and made his small majority completely unworkable. He neither wanted nor expected to hold the referendum, expecting to ditch it in coalition negotiations, and was hugely irritated to find he actually had to hold it. So don't crack on like it was a huge favour to anyone else except himself and his prospects at the last GE.
He then holds a "negotiation" in which he tells everyone that there is no way he is going to leave, and that he wants to use the referendum to "dock" the UK with the EU. Before asking for nothing, coming home with less, and then telling us what a wonderful deal he had got, so good infact that if we were not in the EU he would join on the strength of it, yes sirreeee.
Its a fraud from beginning to end with no though put electoral expediency, and conspicuously so, that is why he is getting so little respect.
No, you come off it. It's almost as if some leavers (seemingly including yourself) dislike Cameron so much you never expected him to offer a referendum and, once he has, you can't stand it.
Thanks to Cameron we're having a referendum. Any alternate-history mental crutches you need to take that away with him are your problem, not his.
He's given you a referendum. Its up to you to win or lose. And if you stamp your feet as you do above then you'll not just lose, but so will the Conservative party.
By all means carry on being rude, but if millions like me sit on our hands rather than vote Tory at the next GE, Corbyn's getting his hands on the controls.
Indeed that is a danger.
I agree, for example all the stuff about the renegotiation being a fraud, Cameron lying, 'Europhiles', etc etc.
Tories should chillax, and concentrate on putting forward their different points of view on the referendum. Voters, not David Cameron or the government, will decide the issue.
This ICM poll doesn't surprise me in the least and reflects Cameron's totally shambolic performance over our so-called EU re-negotiation. Osborne too has been dismal since the GE. I expect to see other polls like this one with lots of red bar charts from Mr Smithson who must be a happy bunny this evening. Also, I'm just wondering what a poll like this suggests might happen in the EU referendum in June.
William Hague who fought the 2001 General Election on 'saving the pound' and being in Europe not run by Europe is Pro-EU.
I've seen it all now.
Thing is: there's an equally strong argument to say that Conservative policy on the EU has become increasingly eurosceptic since the late 80s.
Most pro-EEC party there is Pro-SEA Pro-ERM Pro-Maastrict but with opt outs Wait and see on the euro Rule out euro for next parliament Rule out euro for good Referendum on constitution End to ever closer union Won't let matters rest there Repatriation of social and employment powers Bloomberg speech EU referendum Renegotiation Almost half the parliamentary party and over half of all activists wanting to Leave
It will only be a few cycles until Leavers take over the leadership as well IMO. Even in London the party meetings I attend is mostly in favour of Leave.
"Nonetheless, Ms Merkel has also made serious mistakes. One way to understand how she has mishandled the refugee issue is to contrast it with her approach to the crisis in the eurozone. When it came to the euro, the chancellor’s approach was defined by a deep concern for public opinion in Germany, an understanding of the threats of moral hazard and unintended consequences, and an ability to find the middle-ground between EU countries such as Finland and Greece. Those qualities, combined with Germany’s financial clout, allowed Ms Merkel to emerge as the indispensable leader of Europe.
Faced with the refugee crisis, however, Ms Merkel adopted a very different, and much less successful, approach. She gambled on the tolerance of the German public. And rather than seeking out the European middle ground, she took a position far to the left of almost all the other EU countries.
As a result, the chancellor found herself losing support at home and unable to rally a coalition in Europe. Her position was made worse by the fact that she seemed to have lost her ability to look several moves ahead. She failed to see how Germany’s “welcome culture” would spark a fresh surge of refugees."
On the ICM poll - who would have thought that a month of the Conservative party tearing chunks out of each other, with no end in sight, would have led voters to consider alternatives?
Oh for christ's sake, you do come up with some unbelievable asskissery sometimes. I suppose the government has nothing to do with the immigration service either, and yet by some miracle, the number of rejections of lawful visa applications through embassies suddenly went up by 18% last year. How could this have happened ? Easy, the word was sent down to look very closely at every application and give no benefit of the doubt whatsoever. The idea that there is no ministerial influence in the executive agencies is fatuous.
Yeah, yeah, the ONS are in on the conspiracy as well.
On the ICM poll - who would have thought that a month of the Conservative party tearing chunks out of each other, with no end in sight, would have led voters to consider alternatives?
Yes a shame the elite at the top of the party has detached itself from the broader membership.
On the ICM poll - who would have thought that a month of the Conservative party tearing chunks out of each other, with no end in sight, would have led voters to consider alternatives?
Will you be pursuing this line of analysis when the NEV for the local elections foreshadows a Tory landslide ?
Oh for christ's sake, you do come up with some unbelievable asskissery sometimes. I suppose the government has nothing to do with the immigration service either, and yet by some miracle, the number of rejections of lawful visa applications through embassies suddenly went up by 18% last year. How could this have happened ? Easy, the word was sent down to look very closely at every application and give no benefit of the doubt whatsoever. The idea that there is no ministerial influence in the executive agencies is fatuous.
Yeah, yeah, the ONS are in on the conspiracy as well.
Well the ONS are just useless. I wouldn't assume conspiracy when incompetence is an option, especially where the ONS are concerned. Charlie Bean had a go at them on the weekend, for good reason.
By all means carry on being rude, but if millions like me sit on our hands rather than vote Tory at the next GE, Corbyn's getting his hands on the controls.
Indeed that is a danger.
I agree, for example all the stuff about the renegotiation being a fraud, Cameron lying, 'Europhiles', etc etc.
Tories should chillax, and concentrate on putting forward their different points of view on the referendum. Voters, not David Cameron or the government, will decide the issue.
Oh. Did I miss Cameron telling everyone what a great deal it was ? Did I miss the remainers telling everyone that Cameron is their most important asset ? So when did discrediting your opponents most important asset become a poor tactic ? It's even relatively safe to do since he will not being leading the party into the next election. People whining about attacks on Dave are just concerned about their main asset getting tarnished.
Well the ONS are just useless. I wouldn't assume conspiracy when incompetence is an option, especially where the ONS are concerned. Charlie Bean had a go at them on the weekend, for good reason.
It is certainly the case that the immigration statistics are a complete mess. It is very frustrating trying to get basic information out of their tables and reports. But that is a different point.
Re ICM, at least it'll keep Corbyn in place until he's had time to change the leadership election rules.
The poll is also a salutary reminder that tearing lumps out of each other over a subject the public is only marginally engaged in, is not a route to popularity.
The trick of course is to be able to put the pieces back together again.
Comments
I'm waiting for the AfD breakthrough in Tatton.
Instead we have the PM trying to persuade us that he's got the UK a good deal, when he plainly hasn't. He looks a bloody fool doing so.
Even if I was a Remainer, and I honestly could have been persuaded, I would still call Cameron's deal a balls-up.
Cameron and his Remain supporters have done everything to poison debate. Yet they will be the first ones to complain about a split.
I don't feel alienated. I feel repulsed by such an attitude.
LOL.
The only thing he could have relied upon was events, and they do not always work in your favour.
Now it's up to the Conservative party to act as grown ups, and not puerile incompetents. And yes, that includes you, Boris.
But once see Ozzy showing off his economic competence the Tory VI will rise.
It was down to the economy why the Tories won last year
#notyourday.
However, the headline figures are somewhat misleading, and few should be in any doubt of ICM’s view of our own survey. Firstly, both the Conservative and Labour shares are affected by rounding, with the Conservative’s 36.4% being rounded down and Labour’s 35.6% being rounded up, thus creating parity. However, if only 1 or 2 people had fallen a different way on this poll, there would have at least been a 2-point Conservative lead.
Secondly, ICM has developed a new method of turnout modelling, which, we think, much better controls for raw poll samples’ often observed tendency to contain too many Labour voters/intenders. Had we applied our new model, it alone would have resulted in a 3-point Conservative lead on our headline figures. We plan on launching this new modelling in the very near future, although it will remain a work-in-progress.
Thirdly, this is the seventh out of ten ICM phone polls since the 2015 General Election which recalls voting in Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. Unfortunately the ability of Recall by Past Vote weighting to correct for this is mitigated on this occasion (and thus has only a negligible counter-impact), by a sizable and unusual number of 2015 Conservative voters transitioning to Labour on future intentions.
The word ‘rogue’ is too often used in polling analysis, but in our view it is hard to believe this phone poll will escape such labelling.
http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/media-center/guardian-poll-march-2016
I mean I am a pretty hardcore leaver, would I have liked Bloomberg, not really, could I have lived with it, almost certainly.
http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/media-center/guardian-poll-march-2016
ICM caveats on their latest poll - may be a rogue poll, changed methodology etc.
The EU obsessives really don't seem to like him, despite the fact he's delivered what they've been asking for - a referendum.
If they're not careful, they'll end up with a stonking remain vote that will put another referendum off the cards for a generation (*), half of them out of jobs, and Corbyn in Number 10. Worse, their new leader might well be an anti-EU loser who will go into the election after next obsessing about Europe, and seeing a repeat of 1997.
For some EU obsessives within the Conservative party, it'll be all they deserve.
(*) Hah!
On benefits and all of that rubbish, I've always said it is our benefits system that has issues. We need to copy the Swiss system of fully contributory benefits and higher wages with no in-working benefits and no employer's NI.
Is one of the pleasures of doing PB thread headers.
I like to think it is reward for the hard work I put into PB.
I honestly think most leavers believe they've already lost. Which is odd, as I'm far from sure they're right.
The simple truth is that Cameron has done exactly what he said, has delivered the referendum, exactly as promised, and has allowed not only MPs, but even Cabinet ministers to campaign on either side. He has put up with some very dubious stuff from some of his Leaver colleagues, such as IDS's unpleasant 'dodgy dossier' phrase, or Gove's nonsense over the weekend claiming that the Remain side were predicting all sorts of things that no-one has claimed. But all that is normal politics, and Leavers get far too excitable about it.
Of course it's obvious why the Leavers spend so much energy attacking Cameron, even though it is equally obvious that it's counter-productive.
But I'm repeating myself, so I should leave it there...
No wonder the demand for polling is falling off a cliff.
@martinboon : @gsoh31 Genuine answer: yes, on this raw data. But I'd be even more comfortable with 8-10 point lead.
Heath, Thatcher and Cameron
You don't think it is?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12057025/Government-accused-of-cover-up-as-data-suggests-million-EU-migrants-unaccounted-for-in-Britain.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/12/britains-migration-figures-to-be-reviewed
Thatcher - deposed
Cameron - ?
As @martinboon notes, this looks a bit roguish, compounded by rounding. But for the record it's the first post GE2015 not to show a Con lead
Props to Martin Boon here.
:go-dr-sven-palmer-2015-puntahs:
He then holds a "negotiation" in which he tells everyone that there is no way he is going to leave, and that he wants to use the referendum to "dock" the UK with the EU. Before asking for nothing, coming home with less, and then telling us what a wonderful deal he had got, so good infact that if we were not in the EU he would join on the strength of it, yes sirreeee.
Its a fraud from beginning to end with no though put electoral expediency, and conspicuously so, that is why he is getting so little respect.
The signing of the Single European Act, one of her finest achievements.
“When available, DWP and HMRC data on national insurance number activity (those who have applied for a national insurance number and are still active in the UK) will be incorporated to provide additional information for the users of our statistics and a more complete picture,” it said in a statement.
In other words, the ONS (not Cameron, who has nothing to do with this) is planning to do the diametric opposite of suppressing information.
Something about the EU referendum makes Leavers lose reason.
I've seen it all now.
How many more points do you think Osborne can knock off the his party's figures with the next shambles of a budget?
(And, yes, I know what Charles Powell said - and he was wrong)
Most pro-EEC party there is
Pro-SEA
Pro-ERM
Pro-Maastrict but with opt outs
Wait and see on the euro
Rule out euro for next parliament
Rule out euro for good
Referendum on constitution
End to ever closer union
Won't let matters rest there
Repatriation of social and employment powers
Bloomberg speech
EU referendum
Renegotiation
Almost half the parliamentary party and over half of all activists wanting to Leave
Thanks to Cameron we're having a referendum. Any alternate-history mental crutches you need to take that away with him are your problem, not his.
He's given you a referendum. Its up to you to win or lose. And if you stamp your feet as you do above then you'll not just lose, but so will the Conservative party.
Tories should chillax, and concentrate on putting forward their different points of view on the referendum. Voters, not David Cameron or the government, will decide the issue.
I expect to see other polls like this one with lots of red bar charts from Mr Smithson who must be a happy bunny this evening.
Also, I'm just wondering what a poll like this suggests might happen in the EU referendum in June.
:some-liberal-some-democrat :
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d05329f4-e9d3-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz42tlREl6s
"Nonetheless, Ms Merkel has also made serious mistakes. One way to understand how she has mishandled the refugee issue is to contrast it with her approach to the crisis in the eurozone. When it came to the euro, the chancellor’s approach was defined by a deep concern for public opinion in Germany, an understanding of the threats of moral hazard and unintended consequences, and an ability to find the middle-ground between EU countries such as Finland and Greece. Those qualities, combined with Germany’s financial clout, allowed Ms Merkel to emerge as the indispensable leader of Europe.
Faced with the refugee crisis, however, Ms Merkel adopted a very different, and much less successful, approach. She gambled on the tolerance of the German public. And rather than seeking out the European middle ground, she took a position far to the left of almost all the other EU countries.
As a result, the chancellor found herself losing support at home and unable to rally a coalition in Europe. Her position was made worse by the fact that she seemed to have lost her ability to look several moves ahead. She failed to see how Germany’s “welcome culture” would spark a fresh surge of refugees."
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/458711/michael-gove-should-be-given-george-osborneand39s-job-in-number-11.thtml
The poll is also a salutary reminder that tearing lumps out of each other over a subject the public is only marginally engaged in, is not a route to popularity.
The trick of course is to be able to put the pieces back together again.