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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead
New YouGov London Mayoral poll had Sadiq Khan maintaining 7% lead pic.twitter.com/XBx4DwFphO
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https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/14/sadiq-khan-lead-london-mayoral-race/
http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump’s-chances-win-nomination
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
Since the polling disaster of last year not everyone is willing to pay for polling, especially given the divergence between the phone and online polls.
We've had a Scottish EU ref poll in the last week though.
You can't portray him as a risk to national security in the way you can with the gruesome twosome
@theobertram: If you are influenced by this kind of story, maybe you keep it to yourself https://t.co/ZkUBzB5Rh4
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3491341/Top-Gear-host-Chris-Evans-apologises-unreservedly-Matt-LeBlanc-s-disrespectful-wheelspins-Cenotaph-criticism-Army-veterans-says-him.html
IMO Khan seems the more serious candidate, and he brushes off the "your second cousin once said something dreadful" stuff with the right degree of aplomb. Goldsmith is against airports and Khan, but I don't know what he's for. I think he's wasting coverage by pushing the "extremist" line - the effect is minimal as people don't think Khan looks dangerous, and the Standard doesn't report much of whatever else Goldsmith might be saying.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/romney-campaigns-for-kasich-endorses-not-trump.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftf-i5_qFpw
Repercentaged to remove DKs, it gives Khan a 10% lead. Khan 55% Zac 45%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/em8yhyeskh/LondonMayoralResults_March16_W.pdf
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-trump-supporters-were-doing-before-trump/
Presumably the by-election (there or in Richmond) would take place on the same day as the EURef, which might have an effect.
This doesn't particularly surprise me. With neither candidate looking particularly memorable, the public are presumably largely defaulting to voting along normal party lines. Since London is trending towards Labour, that means that Labour should win without breaking sweat.
It'll p*ss off the French:
http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2016/03/12/une-majorite-de-francais-souhaite-un-referendum-sur-le-frexit-la-sortie-de-la-france-de-l-ue_4881768_3214.html
I just know my next stint as Guest Editor covers the EURef bar the last four days will be the least stressful stint ever.
Funny how these things work out, isn't it?
Khan attempting to appeal to the Ted Cruz demographic maybe ?
Charts on this are self explanatory. Biggest segment is Nichtwaehler ( non-voters last time ). Andere also quite high
In contrast to earlier reports on Sachsen Anhalt this analysis suggests the CDU shed most votes to AfD in absolute terms with Linke and SPD still being hard hit.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/afd-waehler-jung-maennlich-und-enttaeuscht-14123702.html#/elections
It would seem that Cameron and Osborne are doing everything they can to offend Lib Dem voters.
Is this intentional, because they can´t stand Goldsmith and see him as a threat to Osborne´s ambitions? Or just part of their ususal arrogance?
So I suspect Mr Meeks might be right.
Just for fun, I have suggested to a pollster they ask in their next London Mayoral poll
'If the candidates were Sadiq Khan and Boris Johnson, who would you vote for?'
If Khan wins that, then Zac stands no chance.
Hopefully we'll see the results in the next month.
I dropped into our local wine shop and bought a bottle of Rioja called Mayor de Ondarre. The person selling it to me latched onto the first word in the name and started raving about Boris, said that he was a wonderful mayor (we are 100 miles from London) and very intelligent man.
So, amongst people who have sold me wine this week:
Leave 1
Remain 0
Friend, not a friend, well not really a friend, well kinda of not really, yes, but no, but yeah, but no..
I am interested in the claims at the end of the video that Khan wrote a foreground to a dodgy report, where he claims he had known him for 15 years and was a supporter.
But they all fall down on the fact that he doesn't actually look or sound extreme, and isn't. These guilt by association things only really stick if people already suspect you of dodgy views yourself. Merely being a Muslim doesn't make most people think that, certainly not in London.
Perhaps Sadiq Khan will follow my advice and remain an MP if he becomes Mayor.
Then we have the case of the member of the dodgy mayors team who he has hired. Again poor vetting?
So at best Khan is a totally clueless fool who lets very dodgy people associate themselves with him and he has welcomed some of them into his inner circle.
I wonder what the reaction would be if Zac had a load of BNP types anywhere near his campaign?
My elder sister and brother-in-law (Daily Mail readers, not very interested in politics generally, both culturally very conservative) are both voting Remain. They've made their minds up very firmly and were very surprised that I was surprised. Their three children's choices are unknown to me.
My younger sister and brother-in-law, a teacher and IT professional, are both probably voting Leave, though may yet change their minds. My sister was also very surprised that I was surprised at this. They had obviously thought about this a lot and discussed it a lot with their children (both also of voting age and both it seems from what she was saying Remain voters). Her view was that it would take about 10 years to see returns from leaving and there would be some hard years ahead, but that at present they thought that it was on balance worth leaving.
My parents are keeping their cards very close to their chest. If I were guessing, I'd guess they're both going to vote Leave, though my mother in particular is a hard one to read on this.
My only conclusion is that people aren't necessarily going to vote along stereotypical lines in the referendum.
But it isn't. It shames your party.
London real turnout 2012 38%
40-59 age group - Goldsmith leads on certain to vote
Still making his way to Hickory, with Chris Christie apparently...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc6FMmjomJI
Blimey.
That said, she said her concern about voting for Leave is once the immigrants have gone, UKIP and the loons will start going after Muslims/and other minorities.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hsxl98o8mw/TimesResults_160310_ScotlandVI&Trackers.pdf
There is not a vast difference between sympathising and turning a blind eye.
If you turn a blind eye to evil then you enable evil to triumph. Though Mr E Burke put it rather more eloquently than me.
The abandonment by the Left (or a significant part of it) of its moral compass in order to flirt with and embrace people and groups who, were they not a bit dark-skinned and/or claiming to be religious, would in other times be described by the Left as fascists is an utter disgrace. Without a moral compass Labour is nothing. Nothing worthwhile, IMO, anyway.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Labour say they will only take action against Vicky Kirby "If new evidence comes to light".
Trump would like nothing better than to be one on one with Cruz. Cruz will win the delegate poor plains and Rocky mountain states, Trump will sweep up all those delegates in the Far West, South West and North East.
No one would consider that acceptable from Tories.