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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is get
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse
ScotParl voting intention (list):
SNP: 43% (+1)
CON: 19% (-1)
LAB 17%: (-3)
GRN: 8% (+2)
LDEM: 5% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
(via YouGov / 06-09 Mar)
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Oh, and my first first.
.@SheriffClarke: "The goons need back off & they need to be silenced-not the people... on the side of law & order."
https://t.co/pTIPzOSSAo
https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf
https://twitter.com/Politics_for_u/status/708676904480481280
SNP 70
Con 25
Lab 20
Grn 9
LD 5
When he became Tory Leader, the Tories had 40 fewer Scottish MPs than Labour, now they have the same number of MPs, and it is possible that the Tories finish ahead of Lab at Holyrood.
The Tories will be screwed when Dave goes
But no mention of Indyref2...
Triumph of the Will redux?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQAGV90bHrA&feature=youtu.be
Twitter will go mental.
I'm sure we'll get to Wagner the moment Trump descends from the clouds...
surreal.
First the pig, then Labour, then the country, then the Lib Dems and now the Tories.
Ride of the Valkyries!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Who is responsible for this piss-take?
Edit: Who did the mc beneficiaries of SNP largesse used to vote for. Lib Dem?
Corbyn maybe more popular in scotland than other parts of the country however it will require decades to heal the trashed reputation of SLAB among the locals, just look at the Tories they haven't recovered since the 90's, and the LD are in a similar position not just in scotland but everywhere.
Once the reputation of a supposedly left wing political party, after decades of being undermined by centrist leadership, gets trashed by a right wing leader (Jim Murphy), it's very difficult to recover, especially under FPTP once you drop from the top 2 it's difficult to recover.
Under FPTP in scotland if you are left wing you vote SNP, if you are right wing you vote Tory, and those in the middle can select a multitude of parties that are neither.
Stage one:
Disgruntled conservatives form nationalist party.
Stage two:
Nationalist party uses cash redistribution from resources to attract disgruntled leftists.
Stage three:
Dissatisfaction with conservative government leads to implosion towards nationalists and liberals.
Stage four:
Dissatisfaction with Liberal leadership leads to implosion towards Labour and nationalists.
Stage five:
Dissatisfaction with Labour leadership leads to implosion towards nationalists.
With each stage the SNP gains support, and is left as the only credible political party as all the others imploded.
Now the question is for how long can the SNP remain credible and satisfy all the different factions that have come under it's tent, and what happens if the SNP too implodes?
This leads to the potential for great volatility because of the smaller role of top-two tactical voting, as has been seen in Northern Ireland, and maybe this volatility will give Labour or the Conservatives a boost to eventually overtake the SNP
On the other hand, nationalism is strong enough that it kept the Irish party system almost static for 80 years!
And everyone will be watching it on TV to see if there are protesters again.
How many speeches have we listened by politicians and got too bored to listen ?
Now many republican voters have been on the side of being attacked over many years by the other side, by blaming your own side for this you get discredited.
Why should a republican vote for Cruz, Rubio or Kasich if they get blamed by them for being attacked by Sanders supporters?
Blaming your own people for being attacked by the enemy is politically stupid.
That leaves a kind of narrow window for Hillary.
The GOP is too ill and sickly as an organization to effectively support a Trump presidential campaign, or any other republican for the presidency.
The CNN debate convinced me that Trump is going to run a very calm, effective and disciplined message, and the riots in Chicago point that his enemies are going to use violence to stop him.
I don't know whether the violence of his opponents will overcome his lack of support from a party infrastructure.
Will the face of Trump opposition being violent students overcome the face of Trump supporters being white supremacists ?
Will his heart stand up to this?
Secret Service jump on Trump!
A threat approaching the stage?
Cameron's reform packaging works.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zErgz09dESs
Mathematical Theory - trying to work out huge discrepancy between Phone and online polling.
The 2015 GE legacy.
https://twitter.com/ColinTulloch/status/708699968782114818
This is Scotland's politics at the moment. The SNP are totally dominant. Labour are completely ineffectual and seem to have nothing useful to say. Davidson has plenty to say but a maximum of 25% of the population will even give her an audience when she is still called a Tory. The Lib Dems seem completely pointless and the Greens are very likely to overtake them.
It is an incredibly happy situation for the SNP. The only party that is ever likely to be a challenge to them for government is falling apart. A party that they will always be able to beat with one hand tied behind their back is becoming their main opposition. All the other parties are jokes with varying levels of humour. Nothing lasts forever in politics but it really doesn't get better than this for the SNP.
I guess thats the Lib Dem legacy after flunking government.....
Edit: When the LD disappear, where do you think the voters will go David?
SNP: 43% (+1)
CON: 19% (-1)
LAB 17%: (-3)
Rogue poll as I was assured by Jeremy’s minions that Corbynmania would sweep all before it.
And Patrick Harvey was way, way more irritating than Rennie.
Well, it's swept the nation clean of Labour voters...
And thanks for confirming my guesses - glad to see more Unionists for the Tory cause!
Probability must be <1% though.
What happens if Trump gets shot?
If he survives he rides the attempt all the way to the White House.
If he doesn't he becomes a martyr to his cause, and everyone will have to pass the Trump litmus test if they want to have a chance to get elected.
In both cases his opponents get the blame.
That's of course after the riots by thousands of armed Trump supporters and right wing militias all over america.
After Martin Luther King was shot most of america looked like it was in a state of civil war, and most MLK supporters were not as heavily armed as Trump supporters.
It was refreshing to hear Sturgeon explaining that increasing the higher rate of tax may well reduce the tax take if just a few wealthy people move south. It is a basic piece of economics that seems to escape the Labour party. I have respect for John Swinney who is quite realistic and competent. But, as in Westminster, no government does well forever without an effective opposition challenging their thinking.
The only thing that kept Obama from being shot by the tea partiers in my opinion was probably the promise of his defeat by legal political means.
I remember Gore Vidal said that he expected that Obama would be shot during his first term due to all the hatred by his opponents.
It just happens that the other major parties have chosen the same side of the important and divisive nationalism issue, and have implicitly decided to fight each other for the same voters, leaving the nationalist side clear for the SNP and a few small and very left-wing parties
Therefore the best hope for Scottish Conservatives would be a centre-right non-Unionist party, not a centre-right Unionist party!
That's why I would suggest the creation of an independent Scottish centre-right party, that would broadly support Conservative administrations (like the CSU does the CDU), but would not be uncritical, and would have its own culture and traditions.
Nobody is proposing that it doesn't always support the Conservatives. Oops.
Indeed there already is a Scottish unionist party that always supports English Conservative governments but sometimes makes different noises about certain topics without undermining the main party; it's called the Scottish Conservatives
Mr. W, that's surprising (Labour and Lib Dems apparently going along with independence for Scotland). Must help the blues.