What does everyone think the chances of free movement of people being included in TTIP?
You and I object to different things. Let's take the example of the TPP and NAFTA (as they have both already passed) to see examples.
In both cases there are ISDS tribunals that take place in secret. These tribunals can ajudge that a country's laws disadvantage a business in another country and can impose unlimited fines. In the case of NAFTA this meant that the province of Quebec was sued - in a secret ISDS tribunal - that legislation to ban certain GM foods discriminated against it. Quebec was forced to abandon its decision.
The TPP also required that signatories keep their intellectual property laws 'in sync' with the United States. If the US congress extends copyright terms, then Australia and the like are legally required to follow suit. If they do not, then Disney can use the ISDS courts to sue governments.
Neither of these are as denuding of sovereignty as the EU. But I regard them as much more denuding than EFTA/EEA.
"Anyone in the audience going to vote Out? Oh, a lot of hands going up!"
It is always satisfying when the media elite realise that people might have differing opinions...
Every Scottish MP and every Euro MP apart from David Coburn is in favour of Remain, yet around 40% of Scots (at least) are likely to vote Leave. Not a great example of democracy in action.
According to the Debt Management Office, the average maturity of UK sovereign debt is 14 years. In the US, it's about four years. In France and Germany it's six or seven. Greek debt has an average maturity of just under 8 years. As I mentioned yesterday, they have about 10% of their debt coming due in the next few months.
According to Bloomberg, it was 12 years in 2010, although I guess the question is how you treat perpetuals. A "mean" figure that included the perpetuals as (say) 1,000 years of maturity would skew the numbers.
What I would like to know with certainty is the UK future in the EU if I vote REMAIN. I don't want guesswork - I want facts.
Joking aside we seem to have two scenarios.
1) An uncertain future INSIDE the EU where we have minimal influence on the at present unknown changes to the laws and mores that will affect us.
2) An uncertain future OUTSIDE the EU where we will have maximal influence on the at present unknown changes in the laws and mores that will affect us.
Being a pension fund manager simply cannot be much fun at the moment....
Fortunately (and speaking as a fund manager), there are plenty of high quality, global, companies with growing dividends that offer rather better value than gilts.
What I would like to know with certainty is the UK future in the EU if I vote REMAIN. I don't want guesswork - I want facts.
Joking aside we seem to have two scenarios.
1) An uncertain future INSIDE the EU where we have minimal influence on the at present unknown changes to the laws and mores that will affect us.
2) An uncertain future OUTSIDE the EU where we will have maximal influence on the at present unknown changes in the laws and mores that will affect us.
If leave cannot demonstrate that things will be much better outside than voters will default to safety and remain notwithstanding the EU's problems
"Anyone in the audience going to vote Out? Oh, a lot of hands going up!"
It is always satisfying when the media elite realise that people might have differing opinions...
Every Scottish MP and every Euro MP apart from David Coburn is in favour of Remain, yet around 40% of Scots (at least) are likely to vote Leave. Not a great example of democracy in action.
It could be the said of the British labout party,is it 9 or 10 Mp's who support leave.
What I would like to know with certainty is the UK future in the EU if I vote REMAIN. I don't want guesswork - I want facts.
Joking aside we seem to have two scenarios.
1) An uncertain future INSIDE the EU where we have minimal influence on the at present unknown changes to the laws and mores that will affect us.
2) An uncertain future OUTSIDE the EU where we will have maximal influence on the at present unknown changes in the laws and mores that will affect us.
Yes. But while Out will not be all sunshine and roses, I think we would be fundamentally happier outside the EU.
Our legal and democratic systems are simply different to those in the EU. Whether in parliament or the courts, we have an adversarial system, and one based around common law. The EU doesn't work like that: while our traditions come from Locke, theirs come from Rousseau.
This is not a question of better or worse, it is simply that we have a different way, and if we try and conform to their way, we will be unhappy. And if we try and change them, then they will resist and we will be frustrated.
The best option is EFTA/EEA. We get to keep our legal system, to opt out of the political EU, to discriminate in favour of our own citizens, and to exempt ourselves from whatever the Eurozone must do to (try and) stay alive. But we also get access to the enormous single market that sits on our doorstep. And we get to maintain the freedoms that our citizens - that of travel and to work for and to employ who they want - have gained.
"Anyone in the audience going to vote Out? Oh, a lot of hands going up!"
It is always satisfying when the media elite realise that people might have differing opinions...
Every Scottish MP and every Euro MP apart from David Coburn is in favour of Remain, yet around 40% of Scots (at least) are likely to vote Leave. Not a great example of democracy in action.
It could be the said of the British labout party,is it 9 or 10 Mp's who support leave.
If it is done right (I.e. Cameron or at least most of his pro remain cabinet are replaced after the referendum) there is a huge opportunity for the Tories to mop up all Leave votes.
If done badly, we could be in for 20 years of coalition government....
The average UK debt maturity was already 14 years in 2010
...and I think it was over 10 years in 1997
According to Bloomberg it was 9 years in 1997, 12 years in 2010, and is 16 now.
I guess the differences relate to how you count perpetuals.
Do we have any perpetuals outstanding and if so is there any reason why we do?
Historical undated gilts[edit]
Until late 2014 there existed eight undated gilts, which made up a very small proportion of the UK government's debt. They had no fixed maturity date. These gilts were very old: some, such as Consols, dated from the 18th century. The largest, War Loan, was issued in the early 20th century. The redemption of these bonds was at the discretion of the UK government, but because of their age, they all had low coupons, and so for a long time there was little incentive for the government to redeem them. Because the outstanding amounts were relatively very small, there was a very limited market in most of these gilts. In late 2014 and early 2015 the government gave notice that four of these gilts, including War Loan, would be redeemed in early 2015. The last four remaining gilts, with coupons of 2.5% or 2.75%, were redeemed on 5 July 2015.
Proposed new undated gilts[edit]
In May 2012 the UK Debt Management Office issued a consultation document which raised the possibility of issuing new undated gilts, but there was little support for this proposal.
The average UK debt maturity was already 14 years in 2010
...and I think it was over 10 years in 1997
According to Bloomberg it was 9 years in 1997, 12 years in 2010, and is 16 now.
I guess the differences relate to how you count perpetuals.
Do we have any perpetuals outstanding and if so is there any reason why we do?
We did until about four years ago, when interest rates got sufficiently low that we redeemed them all.
As an aside, I guess the other question is whether you include short term government bills (typically 30 day paper), and whether you use mean or median for calculating average maturity.
The average UK debt maturity was already 14 years in 2010
...and I think it was over 10 years in 1997
According to Bloomberg it was 9 years in 1997, 12 years in 2010, and is 16 now.
I guess the differences relate to how you count perpetuals.
Do we have any perpetuals outstanding and if so is there any reason why we do?
Historical undated gilts[edit]
Until late 2014 there existed eight undated gilts, which made up a very small proportion of the UK government's debt. They had no fixed maturity date. These gilts were very old: some, such as Consols, dated from the 18th century. The largest, War Loan, was issued in the early 20th century. The redemption of these bonds was at the discretion of the UK government, but because of their age, they all had low coupons, and so for a long time there was little incentive for the government to redeem them. Because the outstanding amounts were relatively very small, there was a very limited market in most of these gilts. In late 2014 and early 2015 the government gave notice that four of these gilts, including War Loan, would be redeemed in early 2015. The last four remaining gilts, with coupons of 2.5% or 2.75%, were redeemed on 5 July 2015.
Proposed new undated gilts[edit]
In May 2012 the UK Debt Management Office issued a consultation document which raised the possibility of issuing new undated gilts, but there was little support for this proposal.
Wikipedia
Thanks wee!
A simple average that included the perpetuals as (say) 10,000 years would totally skew the number compared to an average that excluded them altogether...
What I would like to know with certainty is the UK future in the EU if I vote REMAIN. I don't want guesswork - I want facts.
Joking aside we seem to have two scenarios.
1) An uncertain future INSIDE the EU where we have minimal influence on the at present unknown changes to the laws and mores that will affect us.
2) An uncertain future OUTSIDE the EU where we will have maximal influence on the at present unknown changes in the laws and mores that will affect us.
If leave cannot demonstrate that things will be much better outside than voters will default to safety and remain notwithstanding the EU's problems
The EU is going belly up in a big way and it's appearing on the TV screens - state of emergency in Hungary has been declared - not sure if that has appeared on BBC or SKY yet. Certainly not apparently on the web pages.
What I would like to know with certainty is the UK future in the EU if I vote REMAIN. I don't want guesswork - I want facts.
Joking aside we seem to have two scenarios.
1) An uncertain future INSIDE the EU where we have minimal influence on the at present unknown changes to the laws and mores that will affect us.
2) An uncertain future OUTSIDE the EU where we will have maximal influence on the at present unknown changes in the laws and mores that will affect us.
If leave cannot demonstrate that things will be much better outside than voters will default to safety and remain notwithstanding the EU's problems
The EU is going belly up in a big way and it's appearing on the TV screens - state of emergency in Hungary has been declared - not sure if that has appeared on BBC or SKY yet. Certainly not apparently on the web pages.
I wouldn't hold your breath on that (a) getting onto screens in the UK; or (b) it affecting voters much. The migrant crisis - to most people - is something that happens 'over there'.
Enda Kenny has resigned. Might mean something for people's Irish books ! Not playing in this one myself.
Unless anyone has info to the contrary, I think that is just a formal resignation to take account of the fact that he didn't get a majority supporting him in today's vote. He is now acting Taoiseach pending the formation of a new government (which looks as though will take several weeks).
I don't think it means that he has resigned in the sense of not wanting to become the official Taoiseach again if FG can get the support needed to do so. In other words, it's a Nigel Farage-style resignation I believe - but I might be wrong on that.
I don't think any betting markets are affected - they'll settle on the next permanent Taoiseach and government.
...He is now acting Taoiseach pending the formation of a new government...
*If* the Irish system works like the Westminster system, there is no such thing as an "acting Taoiseach". (sorry, longstanding bugbear of mine).
I think in Ireland there is such a thing. According to RTE: "Enda Kenny has conveyed his resignation to President Michael D Higgins at Áras an Uachtaráin this evening, becoming acting Taoiseach as the Dáil adjourns until 22 March.... In accordance with the Constitution, Mr Kenny will continue to carry out the duties of Taoiseach until a successor is appointed."
Enda Kenny has resigned. Might mean something for people's Irish books ! Not playing in this one myself.
Unless anyone has info to the contrary, I think that is just a formal resignation to take account of the fact that he didn't get a majority supporting him in today's vote. He is now acting Taoiseach pending the formation of a new government (which looks as though will take several weeks).
I don't think it means that he has resigned in the sense of not wanting to become the official Taoiseach again if FG can get the support needed to do so. In other words, it's a Nigel Farage-style resignation I believe - but I might be wrong on that.
I don't think any betting markets are affected - they'll settle on the next permanent Taoiseach and government.
Does he have less powers as acting Taoiseach rather than proper Taoiseach?
...He is now acting Taoiseach pending the formation of a new government...
*If* the Irish system works like the Westminster system, there is no such thing as an "acting Taoiseach". (sorry, longstanding bugbear of mine).
I think in Ireland there is such a thing. According to RTE: "Enda Kenny has conveyed his resignation to President Michael D Higgins at Áras an Uachtaráin this evening, becoming acting Taoiseach as the Dáil adjourns until 22 March.... In accordance with the Constitution, Mr Kenny will continue to carry out the duties of Taoiseach until a successor is appointed."
*Anecdote alert and srong expression of opinion about the junior doctors' strike*
I have spent some time in A&E this last couple of days with my elderly, sick father who has been admitted with cellulitis/poss bone infection in his leg. This is chronic. He had an out patient appointment a few weeks ago which was cancelled due to the last doctors' strike. It has not been re-scheduled so he ends up in A&E when - you guessed it - there is another doctors' strike. A&E was an utter hellhole. On a trolley in a corridor for hours with a young man awaiting a psych assessment on the next trolley acting out.
I had not really taken a view about this dispute one way or the other until now but the way I am feeling at the moment...perhaps I can channel Wendy out of South Park; "f*ck them, f*ck them right in the ear.
Looks like Trump has an endorsement from Carson lined up to follow the debate. Even if it goes badly for him tonight the media narrative will swing back his way within hours.
...He is now acting Taoiseach pending the formation of a new government...
*If* the Irish system works like the Westminster system, there is no such thing as an "acting Taoiseach". (sorry, longstanding bugbear of mine).
While it may have been founded on the Westminster system, Ireland does not now follow the Westminster system, as [aside from the fact it's no longer in the Commonwealth!] it has a written Constitution, which says, in Article 28:
"11 1° If the Taoiseach at any time resigns from office the other members of the Government shall be deemed also to have resigned from office, but the Taoiseach and the other members of the Government shall continue to carry on their duties until their successors shall have been appointed."
They have a very complicated system, they don't vote for candidates but for delegates that are on the candidates team Here are the rules:
"Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots. Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.
Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates. Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates."
So it could go from 50% Trump to 100% Carson (even if Carson has dropped out).
They have a very complicated system, they don't vote for candidates but for delegates that are on the candidates team Here are the rules:
"Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots. Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.
Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates. Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates."
So it could go from 50% Trump to 100% Carson (even if Carson has dropped out).
Yes, delicious. Rubio and Trump could be defeated by the votes of their own supporters...
They have a very complicated system, they don't vote for candidates but for delegates that are on the candidates team Here are the rules:
"Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots. Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.
Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates. Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates."
So it could go from 50% Trump to 100% Carson (even if Carson has dropped out).
Yes, delicious. Rubio and Trump could be defeated by the votes of their own supporters...
I hate the lottery that is the VP market, but surely Carson is worth a punt with @shadsy at 25/1?
I wouldn't. Trump may want a popular outsider like Carson, or a popular insider like Kasich.
But also you have to factor any refusals, logically those are 2 very nice choices but what if they refuse ? Trump has said that he would like to have someone with political experience to handle Congress for him as his VP, but as I said he may want to have person X but will person X accept?
They have a very complicated system, they don't vote for candidates but for delegates that are on the candidates team Here are the rules:
"Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots. Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.
Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates. Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates."
So it could go from 50% Trump to 100% Carson (even if Carson has dropped out).
Yes, delicious. Rubio and Trump could be defeated by the votes of their own supporters...
One thing is certain. Kasich has nul points.
What happens if Kasich sweeps the popular vote ?
Errm. His voters are going to be very confused, and disappointed...
And vote for someone else whose proxies are actually on the ballot...
They have a very complicated system, they don't vote for candidates but for delegates that are on the candidates team Here are the rules:
"Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots. Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.
Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates. Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates."
So it could go from 50% Trump to 100% Carson (even if Carson has dropped out).
Yes, delicious. Rubio and Trump could be defeated by the votes of their own supporters...
One thing is certain. Kasich has nul points.
What happens if Kasich sweeps the popular vote ?
He's been endorsed by Urban Meyer in Ohio. It doesn't get any bigger than that in the Buckeye State.
Comments
The return to the Unionist name must be a plus now.
"Anyone in the audience going to vote Out? Oh, a lot of hands going up!"
In both cases there are ISDS tribunals that take place in secret. These tribunals can ajudge that a country's laws disadvantage a business in another country and can impose unlimited fines. In the case of NAFTA this meant that the province of Quebec was sued - in a secret ISDS tribunal - that legislation to ban certain GM foods discriminated against it. Quebec was forced to abandon its decision.
The TPP also required that signatories keep their intellectual property laws 'in sync' with the United States. If the US congress extends copyright terms, then Australia and the like are legally required to follow suit. If they do not, then Disney can use the ISDS courts to sue governments.
Neither of these are as denuding of sovereignty as the EU. But I regard them as much more denuding than EFTA/EEA.
According to Bloomberg, it was 12 years in 2010, although I guess the question is how you treat perpetuals. A "mean" figure that included the perpetuals as (say) 1,000 years of maturity would skew the numbers.
He is winning the 'most objectionable' prize in this household...
Joking aside we seem to have two scenarios.
1) An uncertain future INSIDE the EU where we have minimal influence on the at present unknown changes to the laws and mores that will affect us.
2) An uncertain future OUTSIDE the EU where we will have maximal influence on the at present unknown changes in the laws and mores that will affect us.
...and I think it was over 10 years in 1997
Our legal and democratic systems are simply different to those in the EU. Whether in parliament or the courts, we have an adversarial system, and one based around common law. The EU doesn't work like that: while our traditions come from Locke, theirs come from Rousseau.
This is not a question of better or worse, it is simply that we have a different way, and if we try and conform to their way, we will be unhappy. And if we try and change them, then they will resist and we will be frustrated.
The best option is EFTA/EEA. We get to keep our legal system, to opt out of the political EU, to discriminate in favour of our own citizens, and to exempt ourselves from whatever the Eurozone must do to (try and) stay alive. But we also get access to the enormous single market that sits on our doorstep. And we get to maintain the freedoms that our citizens - that of travel and to work for and to employ who they want - have gained.
I guess the differences relate to how you count perpetuals.
If done badly, we could be in for 20 years of coalition government....
Until late 2014 there existed eight undated gilts, which made up a very small proportion of the UK government's debt. They had no fixed maturity date. These gilts were very old: some, such as Consols, dated from the 18th century. The largest, War Loan, was issued in the early 20th century. The redemption of these bonds was at the discretion of the UK government, but because of their age, they all had low coupons, and so for a long time there was little incentive for the government to redeem them. Because the outstanding amounts were relatively very small, there was a very limited market in most of these gilts. In late 2014 and early 2015 the government gave notice that four of these gilts, including War Loan, would be redeemed in early 2015. The last four remaining gilts, with coupons of 2.5% or 2.75%, were redeemed on 5 July 2015.
Proposed new undated gilts[edit]
In May 2012 the UK Debt Management Office issued a consultation document which raised the possibility of issuing new undated gilts, but there was little support for this proposal.
Wikipedia
As an aside, I guess the other question is whether you include short term government bills (typically 30 day paper), and whether you use mean or median for calculating average maturity.
A simple average that included the perpetuals as (say) 10,000 years would totally skew the number compared to an average that excluded them altogether...
I don't think it means that he has resigned in the sense of not wanting to become the official Taoiseach again if FG can get the support needed to do so. In other words, it's a Nigel Farage-style resignation I believe - but I might be wrong on that.
I don't think any betting markets are affected - they'll settle on the next permanent Taoiseach and government.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/967581/#Comment_967581
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/967628/#Comment_967628
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/967632/#Comment_967632
Have a look: see what you think To misquote Rumsfeld, you go to referendum with the ballot that you have, not the one that you would like.
There is no place for such subtleties on pb.com. Be rabid or be gone!
LD 1067 Lab 307 Con 172 Green 128 UKIP 106
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0310/773964-dail-taoiseach/
I have spent some time in A&E this last couple of days with my elderly, sick father who has been admitted with cellulitis/poss bone infection in his leg. This is chronic. He had an out patient appointment a few weeks ago which was cancelled due to the last doctors' strike. It has not been re-scheduled so he ends up in A&E when - you guessed it - there is another doctors' strike. A&E was an utter hellhole. On a trolley in a corridor for hours with a young man awaiting a psych assessment on the next trolley acting out.
I had not really taken a view about this dispute one way or the other until now but the way I am feeling at the moment...perhaps I can channel Wendy out of South Park; "f*ck them, f*ck them right in the ear.
Looks like Trump has an endorsement from Carson lined up to follow the debate. Even if it goes badly for him tonight the media narrative will swing back his way within hours.
Carson is the most popular Republican at the moment.
Con 916 LD 397 Ind 162 Lab 144 UKIP 95
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/ben-carson-favorable-rating
And it's on CNN right now too:
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/708079762867093504
This ought to boost Trump's numbers into safe territory.
"11 1° If the Taoiseach at any time resigns from office the other members of the Government shall be deemed also to have resigned from office, but the Taoiseach and the other members of the Government shall continue to carry on their duties until their successors shall have been appointed."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/12190513/Islamic-State-leaks-reveals-banned-cleric-Omar-Bakri-recruited-British-jihadists.html
Excellent.
Any sign of blood?
They are processing absentees, told us to call back in another 30 minutes.
Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ 17m17 minutes ago
Been calling back the same number now for fifteen minutes. Just waiting.
Here are the rules:
"Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots. Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.
Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates. Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates."
So it could go from 50% Trump to 100% Carson (even if Carson has dropped out).
One thing is certain. Kasich has nul points.
Trump may want a popular outsider like Carson, or a popular insider like Kasich.
But also you have to factor any refusals, logically those are 2 very nice choices but what if they refuse ?
Trump has said that he would like to have someone with political experience to handle Congress for him as his VP, but as I said he may want to have person X but will person X accept?
And vote for someone else whose proxies are actually on the ballot...
"Trading Decision" is how they described it in the email.
meh
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/virgin-islands-john-yob-republican-convention
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/mar/10/us-elections-republican-debate-miami-donald-trump-ted-cruz
Didn't realise 26 minutes is now merely a few moments.
If I were Trump I would prefer if he took public funds, and let the donors do the dirty stuff on Hillary with their superpacs instead.
He's the most something or other leader since 30th January 1933
What a laugh!
Build a Casino on the wall. Nazis for Trump. Fuck Trump.. Etc.
Looks like from VI.