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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s
Kendal, Strickland and Fell (Lib Dem defence) on Cumbria
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrat 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8)
Result of ward at last election (2013):
0
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"I'm going to put in some 2008 turnout figures into my spreadsheet and see if there is a correlation and if so what it is between Sanders performance relative to his avg and turnout differential later on."
In 2008 Obama was going to lose Michigan to Hillary, so he had Dean who was the DNC chair at the time to remove all of Michigan's delegates on a technicality before the vote.
So Obama declared he wasn't going to participate in Michigan at all since there was no point.
Only Hillary voters came to vote and she got 0 delegates despite winning, her victory was void.
Michigan may have made the difference for Obama winning the nomination, at least momentum wise.
That's how Trump wants tonight's CNN debate to be.
We'll see. Rubio is on life support.
Clinton 57 .. Sanders 28
There's nothing 'progressive' about running constant deficits and burdening future generations. It just helps the left to pretend that their preferences don't take money out of the electorate's pockets.
What do I expect from the debate?
For once it's on CNN, so it's friendlier to Trump than Fox News, however because it's CNN they will also let the candidates mostly free from control.
In the last debate they threw the kitchen sink on Trump so there is not much left that they haven't tried last time.
Rubio and Cruz will attack him as usual on not being conservative enough and on his business, Kasich will try and stay out of the fray, the big unknown as always is how Trump behaves.
So what does Labour mean by infrastructure? Only projects which have a BCR above a set value?
if they lose Baden Wuerttemberg to the Greens it's a catastophe. Like the Tories losing Surrey to Caroline Lucas. Currently that;s what the polls say.
Looks like his traditional debate drift has begun early tonight.
And The Home Counties are not exactly Basra
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH_eCaClgEg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owvA_XbL3nM&feature=youtu.be
My first chance to post after a few very busy days at home and at work.
The Mayoral poll in Tuesday's London Evening Standard made for interesting reading and although Sadiq Khan leads Zac Goldsmith by 5% on first preferences and 10% overall, this is far from being cut and dry.
Khan holds a big lead in Inner London as you might expect but in Outer London it's a tie which is surprising as you'd expect Goldsmith to be ahead. It's also significant that among those of us NOT supporting either Khan or Goldsmith on first preference, the second preferences are currently breaking 2-1 for Khan which would be fatal for Goldsmith if the first preferences are close.
Khan is in the pole (or poll) position but he's far from having clinched the deal with Londoners though stories about his aides won't have much resonance. We know the Standard will back Goldsmith though they're nowhere as enthusiastic about him as they were Boris.
It's also likely most Londoners won't engage with us until after Easter so there's all to play for just as there is with the EU referendum. For all that 20 or 30 regulars on here might argue the nuance of every tweet, article or pronouncement on a daily basis, the truth is the overwhelming majority haven't given it much thought yet. 14 weeks is an eternity for most people so there's no point either side thinking it's "game over" by any means.
Come to think of it, Devon would be a good analogy: most of the commuting is done by car and it doesn't have the dependence of traintravel that the South East does. I stayed there 1999-2000 when I was contracting. It's a southern English market town, so it's pretty nice. It's continually being redeveloped (they were building the "new" cinema when I was there, and this decade they've redeveloped 'round Market Street), so it's constantly changing. It's quiet, prosperous, good transport links to London, tho - a perennial bugbear - Reading to the West has faster trains t London. The housing stock is pretty decent and doesn't have the disadvantages of some Southern towns I could name (high ceilings plus poor heating, disharmonious architecture, a seeming reluctance to paint their fronts or tidy their gardens). I genuinely liked it and wish I'd bought back then when a flat cost about £100K: they're *way* higher than that now. It's where you live in Berkshire if you're too wealthy for Reading, too poor for Windsor. and need a shorter commuting time than, say, Twyford or Henley. I genuinely like it and if your parents think it's a "bit of a dive" then please never visit Bognor, Grimsby, Middlesbrough, Bradford, Newport, Dundee, Stevenage...
Hard to find A&E statistics by hospital before 2007 for example, but it's unthinkable now that this would not be available.
Big win for Marco incoming !!
The average maturity of US debt is five years. It's six with Canada, Germany and Italy. And it's seven with France.
For the UK it's 15 years.
This means that even if interest rates went up to 8%, it would take several years before it even made a tiny impact on the overall UK interest bill.
Looks about right to me. Perhaps a little bit closer to evens.
He should be banned for the rest of the season.
Imagine a US president blaming a British PM for the fragmentation of Libya!
Mind you, Obama is a compatriot of Boris Johnson. Has Sky News received any intercepts of traffic in the US Embassy in London recently?
The GOP slugfest is more fun than the Wacky Races.
Which I should therefore support. But somehow it doesn't feel right to wish for low turnout.
It does run counter-intuitive to the meme of reducing borrowing but the opportunity to borrow cheaply on terms like this hasn't existed in two generations,
Now I worry that post a Brexit vote, we'll invoke Article 50, and the EU negotiating team will arrive, and we'll say "OK, guys, what relationship with the EU would you like", and we'll say "I'll get back to you on that one..."
American Samoa is the best one to gauge who an incoming fix might be for though, 9 delegates decided in a tiny restaurant, no vote totals released and a closed caucus for the RNC island leader and his mates. Turnout was 70 last time.
Otherwise we'll spend the next three to five years arguing about what it is we want, and we'll end up with people pissed off.
The problem with having a third option is that too many people will simply vote for the half-way house on the assumption that it must be a sensible compromise regardless of the merits of the argument. Of course if one were looking to rig the result so that EEA membership would win, that's exactly how the ballot would look.
EEA would invoke the wrath of Farage and pals, but not of Boris, who just wants to be popular and doesn't care about silly things like policies -
but as the deal would be negotiated by the new Prime Minister, it would depend on the political attitudes of the (surely) Conservative negotiator - which other than Boris would probably mean no free movement
(Though it was better before all those bankers moved in........)
If, as you seem to think, people are angry enough about the decision they will have a chance to vote for parties that want to change it at the next election.
Maybe I'm being paranoid, but it seems that putting a question about what we want post-EU on the ballot, we minimise the risk of that happening.
but regardless no hardline PM is going to negotiate free movement, surely?!
'Probably trying to demonstrate that without the EU the UK is just a minor player which is of course true.'
Must really hurt coming from a President that's achieved diddly squat in 8 years.
Counting underway at @UniofBath in the referendum on elected mayor for @bathnes. Turnout expected low, tho 13K ex 21K postal votes returned.
This tweet sums it all up.
https://twitter.com/BobConstantine/status/708058845860511744
Was it really Danny Alexander? I thought the UK had always been a maturity outlier. The consols have been outstanding since the 1930s, no? I know Mr Osbourne bought most of it back.
Oh sorry, there's also Michael Gove, PM Michael Gove. Titter
Stephanie Flanders, writing in February 2010: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/02/greek_britain.html