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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042
    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    This idea that people who came out to support Sanders will automatically give Hillary their vote is a complete fallacy. I've been talking to a few "Bernie Bros" who are happy to abstain if Hillary takes the nomination, even in the face of Trump taking the White House. The NY Times article on her involvement in Libya is doing a lot of damage among liberals and Trump's continued opposition to war is turning a lot of heads, enough that they don't think he will be out to "destroy the world" as the left like to say over and over again.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html?_r=0

    and

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html

    Very illuminating reads if anyone has the time. What I get from American liberals is that they feel she will take over the jobs of Rumsfeld and Cheney and push the neo-conservative outlook.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,024

    [SNP] MPs rebelled against their leadership over a deal done with Osborne. It reports the quid pro quo for Sunday trading abstention wasn’t just on the financial settlement, but on a Privy Council seat for Stewart Hosie and an extra, controlling seat on the Scottish Affairs Committee. Stewart Hosie laughed and said this was ‘nonsense’ last night. But that’s another denial that could get more scrutiny.

    Nicola Sturgeon faces a bad day at the office today as the GERS figures, Gov Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland, deliver a hammer blow to the case for independence. The slump will reflect the 54 per cent fall in UK oil revenues that will show the growing gulf between Scotland's public finances and the rest of the U.K.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/09/the-waugh-zone-march-9-20_n_9415488.html

    I'm feel sorry for you that the GERS don't show a massive financial blackhole crushing vortex from which Scotland will never escape.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,781
    edited March 2016

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    'I heard an interview with David Miliband yesterday. He's still by a distance the most impressive Labour figure still around.'

    With the imminent NEC rule changes you have John McDonnell to look forward to when Corbyn eventually steps down or maybe Milne if he's an MP by then.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Astute readers will note that the story does not actually justify the headline, although, to be fair, Tom Newton Dunn, the journalist who wrote this story, can spot this too. His intro does not say that the Queen is backing Brexit, just that she has been “hailed as a backer of Brexit” by Tory MPs told about the two anecdotes at the heart of the story.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/09/queen-wants-uk-to-stay-in-eu-so-scotland-doesnt-go-independent-former-cabinet-minister-claims-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    The most interesting question about this story for me is: why is it coming out now? For maximum impact, you would have expected it to detonate on the eve of the referendum.
    The press expose themselves with every headline they write. No matter what the subject.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,407
    OllyT said:

    Who leaked the Sun story?

    There were present: the Rt. Hon. Nicholas Clegg MP (Lord President), the Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State, Department for Education), the Rt. Hon. Cheryl Gillan MP (Secretary of State for Wales) and the Lord McNally (Minister of State, Ministry of Justice).

    Might that have been followed by lunch? If you can spot any anti-EU highly reliable senior sources in there, you win today's "Elementary, my dear Watson" Sherlock Holmes prize.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-who-could-have-told-the-sun-the-queen-backed-brexit-a6920601.html


    I think Gove is in deep trouble if he proves to be the source of the leak, either directly or indirectly. I seriously doubt he has leaked directly but it is feasible that he has said something to somebody that has.
    Like the PM was in deep trouble when he bragged about HMQ 'purring on the line' to an American?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCDouglasF: Scotland's public sector ran a deficit of £14.9bn in 2014-15, incl share of oil+gas tax = 9.7% of GDP, while UK deficit was 4.9%: #GERS
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,963
    MaxPB said:

    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    This idea that people who came out to support Sanders will automatically give Hillary their vote is a complete fallacy. I've been talking to a few "Bernie Bros" who are happy to abstain if Hillary takes the nomination, even in the face of Trump taking the White House. The NY Times article on her involvement in Libya is doing a lot of damage among liberals and Trump's continued opposition to war is turning a lot of heads, enough that they don't think he will be out to "destroy the world" as the left like to say over and over again.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html?_r=0

    and

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html

    Very illuminating reads if anyone has the time. What I get from American liberals is that they feel she will take over the jobs of Rumsfeld and Cheney and push the neo-conservative outlook.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,269
    edited March 2016
    john_zims said:

    @Roger

    'I heard an interview with David Miliband yesterday. He's still by a distance the most impressive Labour figure still around.'

    With the imminent NEC rule changes you have John McDonnell to look forward to when Corbyn eventually steps down or maybe Milne if he's an MP by then.

    John McDonell?

    He has far more chance of getting a good public perception going over time with exposure (= acceptability) and training. He manages to sound reassuring so that you don't listen to the content of his remarks.

    It is when you listen to the content that he is in trouble.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042
    On Mark Carney. I really don't understand the problem. He was asked questions by the committee and gave pretty straightforward answers. Nothing he said wasn't true or made up, it's the manner of the uphill argument we face in the Leave camp. Instead of lashing out at Carney we should have concentrated on what he actually said and, more importantly, didn't say.

    He said "the EU has been good for us". That statement is, without any shadow of a doubt, true. What he didn't say, maybe because he wasn't asked, is whether it would be good for us in the future. We should be making the argument that the good times for the EU are over, our RoW trade is growing by 4% long run and our EU trade is falling by 2% long run. It is no longer in our interest to be in the EU as it was when it was "good for us".

    He said "leaving would cause uncertainty". Well of course it would, but again, we need to work on the message. Not all uncertainty is bad. We had 10 years of certainty under Brown, investment fell, the state became bloated and we lost our entrepreneurial spirit as a nation. Yes there will be uncertainty, but out of that we will get new activity, new opportunities to trade with the rest of the world which is growing a lot faster than the EU.

    As for HMQ, honestly, who cares if some unelected person is in favour of leaving or remaining. I highly doubt that the Queen being in favour of Brexit is going to convince an IT worker who likes going on holiday in Italy to vote to leave.
  • Scott_P said:

    @BBCDouglasF: Scotland's public sector ran a deficit of £14.9bn in 2014-15, incl share of oil+gas tax = 9.7% of GDP, while UK deficit was 4.9%: #GERS

    If they had votes YES and gone, what would the rUK deficit then have become? Something notably smaller than 4.9% surely. This relative massive overspend is still going on prescriptions and university places that are not allowed for English.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    On topic, I wonder how long it is going to take Conservatives to realise what generations of polls have told us: doctors are far more trusted than politicians.

    That's not what the figures for NHS incompetence claims say, or the record of Shipman.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,152
    Patrick said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCDouglasF: Scotland's public sector ran a deficit of £14.9bn in 2014-15, incl share of oil+gas tax = 9.7% of GDP, while UK deficit was 4.9%: #GERS

    If they had votes YES and gone, what would the rUK deficit then have become? Something notably smaller than 4.9% surely. This relative massive overspend is still going on prescriptions and university places that are not allowed for English.
    So the english are turnips.

  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Another good reason to leave EU is to avoid this sort of censorship

    http://www.wired.com/2016/03/europe-youll-need-vpn-see-real-google-search-results/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?
  • Re the Junior Doctors Strike it seems to me that they are going to fade out of the news over the next few weeks as the EU, US and migration crisis dominate. I cannot see Hunt backing down and as has been said the new contracts will be brought in and doctors moved onto them as their existing contracts run out. I believe it is game over for the Junior Doctors no matter that they presently have good public support. I also think that post the referendum the Cabinet will see a substantial change and that at that time Hunt will be moved to another position and a new Health Secretary appointed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,781
    edited March 2016
    CD13 said:

    Roger,

    "And at the moment the status quo is represented by the whole establishment."

    That's not as good as it used to be. Recently, we've seen an anti-Establishment surge. Why else would Labour elect a man unsuited to be a dog catcher? He's anti-Establishment.

    The Old Gits are strong for Brexit, so why not target the youth now. I'm sure you could come up with an advert featuring young people rebelling against the boring oLd fogeys of the EU.

    It's a time for youth not the suffocating smugness of the "Establishment". Break out and be free. By comparison, a timid boring person can be presented as the drone of the EU. "Because they say so."

    Interesting thought that 'Leave' is the radical option. It could have been if they hadn't fronted it with the cast they have.

    But that's what they've done and no young person or radical is likely to see Gove Farage Boris Rees Mogg IDS and the rest as anything other than old farts wanting to turn back the clocks
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042
    OllyT said:

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.

    It's a huge difference. Obama was the insurgent, his supporters are the Bernie supporters today. Hillary is (and was) the establishment getting her supporters behind a left wing firebrand is easy. Getting Bernie supporters behind an establishment candidate like Hillary isn't going to be easy.

    Look at her donor list:

    https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=N00000019&cycle=Career

    Citigroup
    Goldman Sachs
    JP Morgan
    Morgan Stanley

    All in her top ten.

    Trump will break out this list at every debate and call her "Wall Street's puppet". He will make mincemeat of her stance on Libya and her support of the TPP and TITP. Bernie supporters are anti-establishment, Hillary is as establishment as it gets. Bridging that gap, while not impossible, is not going to be easy. Especially in the current climate where Bernie supporters think the DNC are delivering the nomination to Hillary.

    With Cruz I probably agree. But Trump is as anti-establishment as Bernie, he has policies and stances that will appeal to them on a very basic level.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,407
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: I suspect a correlation between a)people who give a toss what the Queen thinks of politics, and b)people who'd probably vote Brexit anyway.

    Remain chucking their toys out of the pram.
    It would uncharacteristic of both sides in this debate to not act like whiny babies. Even more than politics as usual the level of partisan whinging, so early on, has been remarkable - the most minor of standard political opposition has been decried as unconscionable smearing for example, it's pathetic.

    It's utterly unedifying. Lies and scare stories from both sides.

    I'm a committed Leaver (albeit EFTA/EEA), but the Turkey scare stories rank up there with "3 million jobs" or "increasing our influence in the world" or "this is a good deal", etc.
    Quite right too. What's the point of one side standing aloof whilst the other liberally sprays mud? There are no points for propriety, as Trump proves.?
    Really?

    I've written, persuasively I hope, about why our culture, legal and democratic systems are a poor fit for the EU. But when I read ridiculous scare stories, that are clearly not based in fact (and are obviously not based in fact), they make my blood boil.
    For every high minded person like yourself, there are 10 others who will be impacted only by a worry relating to their own personal circumstances.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    This is encouraging - big drop since 2007 when over 40 per thousand, now just over 20.

    Stats Liz
    Under 18 conception rate fell 6% in England and 7% in Wales in 2014 https://t.co/sRh95dfN2E https://t.co/6EugYjON1X
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?



    Is it not true then?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,865

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: I suspect a correlation between a)people who give a toss what the Queen thinks of politics, and b)people who'd probably vote Brexit anyway.

    Remain chucking their toys out of the pram.
    It would uncharacteristic of both sides in this debate to not act like whiny babies. Even more than politics as usual the level of partisan whinging, so early on, has been remarkable - the most minor of standard political opposition has been decried as unconscionable smearing for example, it's pathetic.

    It's utterly unedifying. Lies and scare stories from both sides.

    I'm a committed Leaver (albeit EFTA/EEA), but the Turkey scare stories rank up there with "3 million jobs" or "increasing our influence in the world" or "this is a good deal", etc.
    Quite right too. What's the point of one side standing aloof whilst the other liberally sprays mud? There are no points for propriety, as Trump proves.?
    Really?

    I've written, persuasively I hope, about why our culture, legal and democratic systems are a poor fit for the EU. But when I read ridiculous scare stories, that are clearly not based in fact (and are obviously not based in fact), they make my blood boil.
    For every high minded person like yourself, there are 10 others who will be impacted only by a worry relating to their own personal circumstances.
    That may well be. But by abdicating the moral high ground in this argument you give carte blanche to the Remainder side to indulge in whatever scare stories they care to generate. How can you or anyone else reasonably attack the 3 million jobs claim or the Calais to Kent myth if you are perpetuating and supporting scare stories which are equally as ludicrous.

    Robert is right on this 100% as was MaxPB the other day. Accepting such tactics seriously damages the Leave campaign.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Re the Junior Doctors Strike it seems to me that they are going to fade out of the news over the next few weeks as the EU, US and migration crisis dominate. I cannot see Hunt backing down and as has been said the new contracts will be brought in and doctors moved onto them as their existing contracts run out. I believe it is game over for the Junior Doctors no matter that they presently have good public support. I also think that post the referendum the Cabinet will see a substantial change and that at that time Hunt will be moved to another position and a new Health Secretary appointed.

    The sentiment amongst the juniors that I deal with is dividing. Particularly those at the end of their training will be in Consultant post within the next 18 months, so less keen on all out action (including emergency cover), the more junior ones are either wanting all out indefinite strikes or demoralised and no longer interested in doing the bare minimum. Absenteeism and sickness absences are on the rise.

    I write our departmental rota, and at no point have I been asked how I would change it with the new contract. The answer would be - not at all. We cannot spare the juniors during the week and have enough weekend cover as it stands.

    It is a pointless fight where everyone loses.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I call it a “mystery” because the working-class white people who make up the bulk of Trump’s fan base show up in amazing numbers for the candidate, filling stadiums and airport hangars, but their views, by and large, do not appear in our prestige newspapers.

    On their opinion pages, these publications take care to represent demographic categories of nearly every kind, but “blue-collar” is one they persistently overlook. The views of working-class people are so foreign to that universe that when New York Times columnist Nick Kristof wanted to “engage” a Trump supporter last week, he made one up, along with this imaginary person’s responses to his questions.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/07/donald-trump-why-americans-support?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,781
    edited March 2016

    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?



    Is it not true then?

    I don't know. Most people use links or short passages to advance an argument. Just copying and pasting random blogs on random subjects is just meaningless
  • glwglw Posts: 6,656
    edited March 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCDouglasF: Scotland's public sector ran a deficit of £14.9bn in 2014-15, incl share of oil+gas tax = 9.7% of GDP, while UK deficit was 4.9%: #GERS

    If that applied to the UK as a whole it would be about a £180 billion deficit, which was about as bad as it got during the financial crisis. Short of a third world war Scottish independence could hardly have been worse timed if it had happened.

    Scotland dodged a cannonball not a bullet. A deficit that large for a newly independent and relatively small country would present immense problems, probably on a par or worse than those Greece has faced.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,055
    F1: just over a week until the first race weekend of the year begins. My rambling pre-season thoughts are here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/pre-season-f1-2016-predictions-and.html
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'He said "the EU has been good for us". That statement is, without any shadow of a doubt, true'

    If you look at the Bank's research on this, it is actually a bit thin. A lot of it is little more than a (slightly skewed) literature review and the crucial section where the Bank does argue that 'openness has increased ergo EU has been good' suffers from the major flaw of not really examining possible counterfactuals e.g. would 'openness' have increased anyway, perhaps even by more? The concept of 'openness' itself is also rather loosely defined.

    And you are right that it is quite backward-looking overall. It is clearly designed to support the status quo (albeit not stridently) but doesn't make a very strong case for it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,865
    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?



    Don't like the message shoot the messenger Roger?

    You really are a sad sack.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited March 2016
    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,152
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCDouglasF: Scotland's public sector ran a deficit of £14.9bn in 2014-15, incl share of oil+gas tax = 9.7% of GDP, while UK deficit was 4.9%: #GERS

    If that applied to the UK as a whole it would be about a £180 billion deficit, which was about as bad as it got during the financial crisis. Short of a third world war Scottish independence could hardly have been worse timed if it had happened.

    Scotland dodged a cannonball not a bullet.
    It's quite fun watching Sturgeon campaign to stay in an organisation which would make her reduce spending by £10.3 billion and we mean now so don't give us any of your lip girlie.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    Michael Savage
    This graph shows how Labour built up piles of votes in safe areas: 4/6 https://t.co/mmZbVrcEgf

    The Lynton Crosby Effect in one graph – it shows MPs mentioning Long Term Economic Plan in debates… 5/6 https://t.co/xAmrdgNRzT

    And the graph showing the Natalie Bennett Effect – it really looks like she cost the Greens: 6/6 https://t.co/CNG8bwHBOy
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049
    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    This idea that people who came out to support Sanders will automatically give Hillary their vote is a complete fallacy. I've been talking to a few "Bernie Bros" who are happy to abstain if Hillary takes the nomination, even in the face of Trump taking the White House. The NY Times article on her involvement in Libya is doing a lot of damage among liberals and Trump's continued opposition to war is turning a lot of heads, enough that they don't think he will be out to "destroy the world" as the left like to say over and over again.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html?_r=0

    and

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html

    Very illuminating reads if anyone has the time. What I get from American liberals is that they feel she will take over the jobs of Rumsfeld and Cheney and push the neo-conservative outlook.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.
    It's not the white collar liberals she needs to worry about. It's the blue collar angries, like those in Michigan who've just given Bernie his biggest win so far (by state size) and might be attracted to Trump.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    [snip]
    Is it not true then?

    I don't know. Most people use links or short passages to advance an argument. Just copying and pasting random blogs on random subjects is just meaningless

    Roger, you appear to read the Daily Mail from cover to cover just so you can moan how awful it is, same goes for comments on Guido and now PB. – Why not just skip over and ignore them instead of cluttering up the thread?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Bullet. Dodged. #GERS

    @KennyFarq: Jesus, GERS numbers are brutal. What is the utilitarian argument for independence in such circumstances, as opposed to the existential one?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    On topic, I wonder how long it is going to take Conservatives to realise what generations of polls have told us: doctors are far more trusted than politicians.

    That's not what the figures for NHS incompetence claims say, or the record of Shipman.
    As a GP, Shipman was a semi-private contractor. As for medical errors, there is a reason they have malpractice insurance in the US (and elsewhere, of course) and it is not because American doctors moonlight for the NHS. Today's reports that at last something may be done to reduce errors is encouraging, although the devil is in the detail.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,656

    It's quite fun watching Sturgeon campaign to stay in an organisation which would make her reduce spending by £10.3 billion and we mean now so don't give us any of your lip girlie.

    I don't think that the SNP would be in power for much longer in such circumstances. It's hard to see any government surviving such a calamity.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,865
    JonathanD said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    And yet polling of BCC members, who comprise companies of all sizes show a majority favour remaining in the EU. A weak article by Hannan, notable for its lack of polling data on SMEs and their view of the EU.

    104,000 companies are members of the BCC. The poll was not a traditional poll but an online poll open to all members asking them to answer a series of questions about the EU. A total of just over 2000 responded, disproportionately the larger companies. That is a 98% refusal rate.

    This was just as much a self selecting voodoo poll as the one run in the Mirror a few days ago showing 81% support for Brexit.

    The only interesting point in the whole poll was the number of companies -50% - who said they did no trade with the rest of the EU at all. And even that figure is pretty much meaningless because of the nature of the poll.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?



    Is it not true then?

    I don't know. Most people use links or short passages to advance an argument. Just copying and pasting random blogs on random subjects is just meaningless

    From what I can tell it's anything but junk mail, as you called it.

    It is a short but highly relevant passage, though I appreciate it is uncomfortable reading for you and you would rather people couldn't read it.

    State censorship next on your list?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042

    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    This idea that people who came out to support Sanders will automatically give Hillary their vote is a complete fallacy. I've been talking to a few "Bernie Bros" who are happy to abstain if Hillary takes the nomination, even in the face of Trump taking the White House. The NY Times article on her involvement in Libya is doing a lot of damage among liberals and Trump's continued opposition to war is turning a lot of heads, enough that they don't think he will be out to "destroy the world" as the left like to say over and over again.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html?_r=0

    and

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html

    Very illuminating reads if anyone has the time. What I get from American liberals is that they feel she will take over the jobs of Rumsfeld and Cheney and push the neo-conservative outlook.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.
    It's not the white collar liberals she needs to worry about. It's the blue collar angries, like those in Michigan who've just given Bernie his biggest win so far (by state size) and might be attracted to Trump.
    Even white collar liberals who, over here, would be in the Corbyn camp aren't going to automatically fall into Hillary's camp.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Michael Savage
    This graph shows how Labour built up piles of votes in safe areas: 4/6 https://t.co/mmZbVrcEgf

    The Lynton Crosby Effect in one graph – it shows MPs mentioning Long Term Economic Plan in debates… 5/6 https://t.co/xAmrdgNRzT

    And the graph showing the Natalie Bennett Effect – it really looks like she cost the Greens: 6/6 https://t.co/CNG8bwHBOy

    Of course, it used to be the Conservatives who piled up votes in safe seats, which is the main reason they believed the system was stacked against them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,427

    Michael Savage
    This graph shows how Labour built up piles of votes in safe areas: 4/6 https://t.co/mmZbVrcEgf

    The Lynton Crosby Effect in one graph – it shows MPs mentioning Long Term Economic Plan in debates… 5/6 https://t.co/xAmrdgNRzT

    And the graph showing the Natalie Bennett Effect – it really looks like she cost the Greens: 6/6 https://t.co/CNG8bwHBOy

    Hmm. Causality and correlation are different things. Although most journalists don't care.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049
    MaxPB said:

    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    This idea that people who came out to support Sanders will automatically give Hillary their vote is a complete fallacy. I've been talking to a few "Bernie Bros" who are happy to abstain if Hillary takes the nomination, even in the face of Trump taking the White House. The NY Times article on her involvement in Libya is doing a lot of damage among liberals and Trump's continued opposition to war is turning a lot of heads, enough that they don't think he will be out to "destroy the world" as the left like to say over and over again.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html?_r=0

    and

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html

    Very illuminating reads if anyone has the time. What I get from American liberals is that they feel she will take over the jobs of Rumsfeld and Cheney and push the neo-conservative outlook.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.
    It's not the white collar liberals she needs to worry about. It's the blue collar angries, like those in Michigan who've just given Bernie his biggest win so far (by state size) and might be attracted to Trump.
    Even white collar liberals who, over here, would be in the Corbyn camp aren't going to automatically fall into Hillary's camp.
    They are against Trump or Cruz in the same way that Labour could keep them on board if Corbyn is replaced by Cooper (say) before 2020, and Liam Fox were to win the Tory contest (not that I think either eventuality likely but it's about the closest equivalent to the US).
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049

    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Pulling out now would be an admission that he knew he was going to lose Florida so the practical effect would be the same.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,152

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
    also why has it lost capacity for assembling 800,000 cars since being in the EU.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Being no platformed by Roger is par for the course.

    Polemicist FleetStFox wanted polemicist Katie Hopkins banned on Sky this morning.

    The one eyedness is most peculiar.

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?



    Is it not true then?

    I don't know. Most people use links or short passages to advance an argument. Just copying and pasting random blogs on random subjects is just meaningless

    From what I can tell it's anything but junk mail, as you called it.

    It is a short but highly relevant passage, though I appreciate it is uncomfortable reading for you and you would rather people couldn't read it.

    State censorship next on your list?

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
    Mugs earning the nation a fortune. The car industry is an amazing (foreign owned) success. Massive investment based on it being in the EU.
    You just carry on 'putting all these jobs at risk'. Your cavalier attitude to reality is shameful.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042

    They are against Trump or Cruz in the same way that Labour could keep them on board if Corbyn is replaced by Cooper (say) before 2020, and Liam Fox were to win the Tory contest (not that I think either eventuality likely but it's about the closest equivalent to the US).

    Honestly I can't think of a Trump equivalent in UK politics. Possibly Nigel, but even that's stretching it given Trump's positions on trade and NAFTA.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And your deflection hasn't gone unnoticed.

    What do you think Labour should do to turn this around?

    I honestly can't think of a post you've made that doesn't deflect or fall into whataboutery

    Michael Savage
    This graph shows how Labour built up piles of votes in safe areas: 4/6 https://t.co/mmZbVrcEgf

    The Lynton Crosby Effect in one graph – it shows MPs mentioning Long Term Economic Plan in debates… 5/6 https://t.co/xAmrdgNRzT

    And the graph showing the Natalie Bennett Effect – it really looks like she cost the Greens: 6/6 https://t.co/CNG8bwHBOy

    Of course, it used to be the Conservatives who piled up votes in safe seats, which is the main reason they believed the system was stacked against them.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @MaxPB

    I do so enjoy your fantasy musing on the upcoming President Trump.

    Much like I did with other PBers with Presidents McCain and Romney and Prime Minister Miliband.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,427

    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Pulling out now would be an admission that he knew he was going to lose Florida so the practical effect would be the same.
    I suspect he won't pull out. Millions of dollars are being spent in next few days on ad buys for anti-trump attack ads. The funders will at least want to see Rubio stand until the end.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,897
    edited March 2016
    To me the most significant piece of Mark Carney's testimony and written submission to the Select Committee was in respect of the renegotiation deal:

    [The renegotiation deal] addresses the issues the Bank identified as being important, given the likely need for further integration of the euro area, to maintaining its ability to achieve its objectives. In line with a main conclusion of the Bank Report, the Settlement explicitly recognises the needs of the UK to supervise its financial stability, while not impeding the implementation of necessary, further integration amongst members of the euro area. It makes clear that the UK retains responsibility for supervising its financial stability, financial institutions and markets as well as maintaining responsibility for the resolution of failed financial institutions within its jurisdiction. At the same time, it acknowledges the existing powers of the Union to take action that is necessary to respond to threats to financial stability. The Settlement recognises that EU financial services legislation may need to be conceived in a more uniform way for Banking Union member states than for member states like the UK that are not participating. It recognises that there is more than one currency in the EU and makes a legally binding commitment to ensure nondiscrimination in the single market on the basis of currency. Finally, it makes a series of commitments to improve the competitiveness of the EU economy— commitments, to the extent they are fulfilled, that would reinforce the positive impact of EU membership on the Bank's secondary objectives.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042
    JackW said:

    @MaxPB

    I do so enjoy your fantasy musing on the upcoming President Trump.

    Much like I did with other PBers with Presidents McCain and Romney and Prime Minister Miliband.

    And I enjoy the complete lack of understanding you have of Bernie supporters, maybe you're just too old!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jason Rosenthal
    The problem in Florida is in early voting there many people have already voted for @MarcoRubio.

    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Pulling out now would be an admission that he knew he was going to lose Florida so the practical effect would be the same.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    HMG are doing a great job here. Eye catching Twitter and TV ads

    https://www.exportingisgreat.gov.uk/
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    glw said:

    It's quite fun watching Sturgeon campaign to stay in an organisation which would make her reduce spending by £10.3 billion and we mean now so don't give us any of your lip girlie.

    I don't think that the SNP would be in power for much longer in such circumstances. It's hard to see any government surviving such a calamity.
    Let's not get carried away by the SNP.
    Sturgeon and her mates had no plan no currency no central bank no economy and no tax base. Pretty soon they would have had no population.
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467

    MaxPB said:

    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    This idea that people who came out to support Sanders will automatically give Hillary their vote is a complete fallacy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html?_r=0

    and

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html

    Very illuminating reads if anyone has the time. What I get from American liberals is that they feel she will take over the jobs of Rumsfeld and Cheney and push the neo-conservative outlook.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.
    It's not the white collar liberals she needs to worry about. It's the blue collar angries, like those in Michigan who've just given Bernie his biggest win so far (by state size) and might be attracted to Trump.
    Even white collar liberals who, over here, would be in the Corbyn camp aren't going to automatically fall into Hillary's camp.
    They are against Trump or Cruz in the same way that Labour could keep them on board if Corbyn is replaced by Cooper (say) before 2020, and Liam Fox were to win the Tory contest (not that I think either eventuality likely but it's about the closest equivalent to the US).
    Liam Fox is probably the last politician I would compare Trump to, he is probably closer to Corbyn than Fox.

    Anyway I have seen more than few Sanders supporters saying they would sit it out or vote Trump if HRC wins, they aren't just Jim Webb Democrats either. Foreign policy and establishment corruption are just bigger issues in the US, foreign policy is the one area a President controls and corruption is just more endemic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042

    HMG are doing a great job here. Eye catching Twitter and TV ads

    https://www.exportingisgreat.gov.uk/

    It's actually because of the good work done by the coalition on non-EU exports that I'm in the Leave camp. We just don't need the EU as much as we used to.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Chris Mason
    . @jackcevans on Corbyn's PMQs questions:
    Welfare: 24
    Health: 25
    Housing: 16
    Education: 5
    Climate Change: 4
    Foreign Affairs; 5
    Policing: 3
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 646

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
    Mugs earning the nation a fortune. The car industry is an amazing (foreign owned) success. Massive investment based on it being in the EU.
    You just carry on 'putting all these jobs at risk'. Your cavalier attitude to reality is shameful.
    Maybe some of us remember a plethora of messages such as this one, from 2004:

    "Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn has repeated warnings that its Sunderland plant could lose production of one of its most important cars if Britain remains outside the euro."


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nissan-chief-repeats-investment-warning-over-euro-84909.html


    And, more recently, from Paul Willcox, Nissan Europe chairman:

    "“Our position in terms of competitiveness is driven by not only the situation in Europe in terms of whether we are in or out of the EU but more importantly the commitment of the people we have in the North East, the supply chain we have in the UK.”
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Yes, that looks about right. I think he might choose to pull out [and possibly endorse Kasich, on electability grounds] if he's convinced he's going to lose - all with an eye on 2020.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Really bad excuse

    Pippa Crerer
    Sadiq Khan insists he followed "best practice" on vetting former aide Shueb Salar who was sacked over offensive tweets & pictures with guns
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    @MaxPB

    I do so enjoy your fantasy musing on the upcoming President Trump.

    Much like I did with other PBers with Presidents McCain and Romney and Prime Minister Miliband.

    And I enjoy the complete lack of understanding you have of Bernie supporters, maybe you're just too old!
    Clearly with Trump's attitudes on Hispanics, AA and women he's going to appeal to Sander's supporters. It's obvious that Donald's empathy plays well to the Bernie base there .... Well, it's a view.

    Somewhat like Jezza's mob taking a kindly view of Nigel Farage and thus opting not to vote for Ed last year. It certainly has novelty value, I'll give you that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,781

    Roger said:

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    Why don't you try writi

    The divergence of interest between large and small businesses is critical to the Brexit debate. Here are two key figures to bear in mind.

    First, twice as many people work for SMEs as for big companies. Second, only 6 per cent of all UK firms do any business with the EU – but 100 per cent of them must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations.
    http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
    Amount spent on EU lobbying in the first six months of 2015

    1 Microsoft Corporation 4,500,000
    2 Shell Companies 4,500,000
    3 ExxonMobil Petroleum & Chemical 4,500,000
    4 Deutsche Bank AG 3,962,000
    5 Dow Europe GmbH 3,750,000
    6 Google 3,500,000
    7 General Electric Company (GE) 3,250,000
    8 Siemens AG 3,230,169
    9 Huawei Technologies 3,000,000
    10 BP 2,500,000
    Source: Transparency International
    I can't understand why Mike allows you to post this stream of junk mail. Why don't you try writing something yourself or posting a link?



    Don't like the message shoot the messenger Roger?

    You really are a sad sack.

    Welcome back! That's more like the old Richard.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,865

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
    Mugs earning the nation a fortune. The car industry is an amazing (foreign owned) success. Massive investment based on it being in the EU.
    You just carry on 'putting all these jobs at risk'. Your cavalier attitude to reality is shameful.
    So you are in favour of us joining the Euro then. Nice to see you finally admitting it. Or are you too dumb to see the basic logically conclusion of what you just wrote?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037

    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Pulling out now would be an admission that he knew he was going to lose Florida so the practical effect would be the same.
    Not exactly: (a) people couldn't constantly write "he lost his home state" in 2020 and (b) it would materially impact Ohio as well, so could be presented as a magnanimous move for the good of the party.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,897
    A question for the sharp minds: what do we think the Next President odds will settle at if and when it becomes absolutely clear that it's Trump vs Hillary?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,781

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
    Mugs earning the nation a fortune. The car industry is an amazing (foreign owned) success. Massive investment based on it being in the EU.
    You just carry on 'putting all these jobs at risk'. Your cavalier attitude to reality is shameful.
    So you are in favour of us joining the Euro then. Nice to see you finally admitting it. Or are you too dumb to see the basic logically conclusion of what you just wrote?
    ...and they just keep coming
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037

    A question for the sharp minds: what do we think the Next President odds will settle at if and when it becomes absolutely clear that it's Trump vs Hillary?

    Looks like 1.4 v 3.5.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,963

    OllyT said:

    Who leaked the Sun story?

    There were present: the Rt. Hon. Nicholas Clegg MP (Lord President), the Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State, Department for Education), the Rt. Hon. Cheryl Gillan MP (Secretary of State for Wales) and the Lord McNally (Minister of State, Ministry of Justice).

    Might that have been followed by lunch? If you can spot any anti-EU highly reliable senior sources in there, you win today's "Elementary, my dear Watson" Sherlock Holmes prize.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-who-could-have-told-the-sun-the-queen-backed-brexit-a6920601.html


    I think Gove is in deep trouble if he proves to be the source of the leak, either directly or indirectly. I seriously doubt he has leaked directly but it is feasible that he has said something to somebody that has.
    Like the PM was in deep trouble when he bragged about HMQ 'purring on the line' to an American?
    Chalk & Cheese. The cameron incident barely raised a political ripple, the Sun article has landed the Monarchy right in the deep doo doo
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016

    A question for the sharp minds: what do we think the Next President odds will settle at if and when it becomes absolutely clear that it's Trump vs Hillary?

    I've been giving that question a lot of thought.

    No firm conclusions as of yet - only that the range of possible vote shares/EC vote outcomes would be much larger than in previous POTUS contests (at least since '92)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042
    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    @MaxPB

    I do so enjoy your fantasy musing on the upcoming President Trump.

    Much like I did with other PBers with Presidents McCain and Romney and Prime Minister Miliband.

    And I enjoy the complete lack of understanding you have of Bernie supporters, maybe you're just too old!
    Clearly with Trump's attitudes on Hispanics, AA and women he's going to appeal to Sander's supporters. It's obvious that Donald's empathy plays well to the Bernie base there .... Well, it's a view.

    Somewhat like Jezza's mob taking a kindly view of Nigel Farage and thus opting not to vote for Ed last year. It certainly has novelty value, I'll give you that.
    You have just shown how little you understand Bernie supporters with that post Jack. Hillary already has the groups you mention on board. She doesn't have blue collar and white collar whites. Trump appeals to them on a very basic level that Hillary doesn't.
  • Re the Queen. Well, Project Fear now knows what its like to get a figurehead used against them! No chance now of the same trick that was used against the Yes campaign by Cameron etc!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    BBC Scotland
    Scottish public spending was nearly £15bn more than tax revenue last financial year https://t.co/HN46VWE8Pj #GERS https://t.co/MnC4jQ3BsS
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,851
    edited March 2016
    I've done some modelling on the Democratic race. Polls change, but racial demographics don't !

    If Sanders keeps HRC's delegate lead to less than 255 (It is 233 at the moment), then he can close the gap... (With a big push in California !)

    Now he still probably doesn't win. But it requires a superdelegate robbery to deny him the nomination if he gets it back to level. We'll see if Michigan was an outlier next tuesday - although the biggest polling miss thus far was actually Minnesota (Was using January polls).

    The combined indication is that Sanders is strong in the midwest, he is outperforming his polls slightly and that he is gaining ground on Hilary nationally.

    Of course its still a total mountain, but he needs to:

    Keep Florida and North Carolina below 60% (Florida HRC may well outperform my racial demographic model relative to NC due to the staggering number of old people there)
    Keep Illinois competitive (Could see a home state effect for HRC here ?)
    Win Ohio and Missouri. Without question he certainly needs to win BOTH of these.

    That's the checklist to stay in the game so to speak.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049
    MaxPB said:

    They are against Trump or Cruz in the same way that Labour could keep them on board if Corbyn is replaced by Cooper (say) before 2020, and Liam Fox were to win the Tory contest (not that I think either eventuality likely but it's about the closest equivalent to the US).

    Honestly I can't think of a Trump equivalent in UK politics. Possibly Nigel, but even that's stretching it given Trump's positions on trade and NAFTA.
    Jeremy Clarkson.
  • Re: ConHome survey results of members. This will crush the Leadership hopes of many of those in the REMAIN camp. Osborne probably has not given up yet - although he ought to. Also betting tip, consider Lord Feldman for next Cabinet departure, the man has a -40 rating and is as popular as something smelly one has just stepped in.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/cameron-plummets-towards-the-bottom-of-our-cabinet-league-table.html
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,963
    MaxPB said:

    OllyT said:

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.

    It's a huge difference. Obama was the insurgent, his supporters are the Bernie supporters today. Hillary is (and was) the establishment getting her supporters behind a left wing firebrand is easy. Getting Bernie supporters behind an establishment candidate like Hillary isn't going to be easy.

    Look at her donor list:

    https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=N00000019&cycle=Career

    Citigroup
    Goldman Sachs
    JP Morgan
    Morgan Stanley

    All in her top ten.

    Trump will break out this list at every debate and call her "Wall Street's puppet". He will make mincemeat of her stance on Libya and her support of the TPP and TITP. Bernie supporters are anti-establishment, Hillary is as establishment as it gets. Bridging that gap, while not impossible, is not going to be easy. Especially in the current climate where Bernie supporters think the DNC are delivering the nomination to Hillary.

    With Cruz I probably agree. But Trump is as anti-establishment as Bernie, he has policies and stances that will appeal to them on a very basic level.
    Agree to differ and wait till we see what happens in November.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049

    Jason Rosenthal
    The problem in Florida is in early voting there many people have already voted for @MarcoRubio.

    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Pulling out now would be an admission that he knew he was going to lose Florida so the practical effect would be the same.
    Good point. Even more will have not voted for him, in all probability.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,733
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    @MaxPB

    I do so enjoy your fantasy musing on the upcoming President Trump.

    Much like I did with other PBers with Presidents McCain and Romney and Prime Minister Miliband.

    And I enjoy the complete lack of understanding you have of Bernie supporters, maybe you're just too old!
    Clearly with Trump's attitudes on Hispanics, AA and women he's going to appeal to Sander's supporters. It's obvious that Donald's empathy plays well to the Bernie base there .... Well, it's a view.

    Somewhat like Jezza's mob taking a kindly view of Nigel Farage and thus opting not to vote for Ed last year. It certainly has novelty value, I'll give you that.
    You have just shown how little you understand Bernie supporters with that post Jack. Hillary already has the groups you mention on board. She doesn't have blue collar and white collar whites. Trump appeals to them on a very basic level that Hillary doesn't.
    The Young Pretender takes on the Mighty ARSE.

    One of them is going to be covered in confusion in November.
  • OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Who leaked the Sun story?

    There were present: the Rt. Hon. Nicholas Clegg MP (Lord President), the Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State, Department for Education), the Rt. Hon. Cheryl Gillan MP (Secretary of State for Wales) and the Lord McNally (Minister of State, Ministry of Justice).

    Might that have been followed by lunch? If you can spot any anti-EU highly reliable senior sources in there, you win today's "Elementary, my dear Watson" Sherlock Holmes prize.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-who-could-have-told-the-sun-the-queen-backed-brexit-a6920601.html


    I think Gove is in deep trouble if he proves to be the source of the leak, either directly or indirectly. I seriously doubt he has leaked directly but it is feasible that he has said something to somebody that has.
    Like the PM was in deep trouble when he bragged about HMQ 'purring on the line' to an American?
    Chalk & Cheese. The cameron incident barely raised a political ripple, the Sun article has landed the Monarchy right in the deep doo doo
    I think HMQ may well be ambivalent to the EU but not sure that the Sun have done themselves any favours in an article that is very ambiguous and seems to be an attempt to draw HMQ into the debate and in many ways to compromise her
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020
    MaxPB said:

    On Mark Carney. I really don't understand the problem. He was asked questions by the committee and gave pretty straightforward answers. Nothing he said wasn't true or made up, it's the manner of the uphill argument we face in the Leave camp. Instead of lashing out at Carney we should have concentrated on what he actually said and, more importantly, didn't say.

    He said "the EU has been good for us". That statement is, without any shadow of a doubt, true. What he didn't say, maybe because he wasn't asked, is whether it would be good for us in the future. We should be making the argument that the good times for the EU are over, our RoW trade is growing by 4% long run and our EU trade is falling by 2% long run. It is no longer in our interest to be in the EU as it was when it was "good for us".

    He said "leaving would cause uncertainty". Well of course it would, but again, we need to work on the message. Not all uncertainty is bad. We had 10 years of certainty under Brown, investment fell, the state became bloated and we lost our entrepreneurial spirit as a nation. Yes there will be uncertainty, but out of that we will get new activity, new opportunities to trade with the rest of the world which is growing a lot faster than the EU.

    As for HMQ, honestly, who cares if some unelected person is in favour of leaving or remaining. I highly doubt that the Queen being in favour of Brexit is going to convince an IT worker who likes going on holiday in Italy to vote to leave.

    I agree with this absolutely. It really is long, long past time that those for Leave started to make the positive case for it and stopped the whining. It is getting dangerously close to too late.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Generally speaking I discount ConHome as it's very Kipper, but given the Leave vs Remain battle - that's pretty interesting.

    Re: ConHome survey results of members. This will crush the Leadership hopes of many of those in the REMAIN camp. Osborne probably has not given up yet - although he ought to. Also betting tip, consider Lord Feldman for next Cabinet departure, the man has a -40 rating and is as popular as something smelly one has just stepped in.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/cameron-plummets-towards-the-bottom-of-our-cabinet-league-table.html

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049
    LondonBob said:

    MaxPB said:

    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another poor night for Hillary I see. Trump will smash her to pieces in the debates and during the main campaign.

    She can't win without white collar liberals and if they don't turn up because "Trump's probably not as bad as they say" (verbatim response from a liberal friend of mine living in Connecticut) then I think Trump's going to be the favourite heading into November.

    The acrimony between Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters should not be underestimated, the Bernie people think the DNC are stealing the nomination away from Bernie and they believe Bernie is better placed to take on Trump. Going by the RCP averages, they are right.

    I don't honestly see many white collar liberals not backing Clinton in November against Trump or Cruz. When Obama was closing in on the nomination in 2008 I can recall numerous comments telling us that this group or that group would never vote for him. Substantially they did.

    Also I would suggest that the acrimony between Clinton and Sanders supporters is as nothing compared to the blind hatred that exists between Trump and Cruz/Rubio supporters.
    It's not the white collar liberals she needs to worry about. It's the blue collar angries, like those in Michigan who've just given Bernie his biggest win so far (by state size) and might be attracted to Trump.
    Even white collar liberals who, over here, would be in the Corbyn camp aren't going to automatically fall into Hillary's camp.
    They are against Trump or Cruz in the same way that Labour could keep them on board if Corbyn is replaced by Cooper (say) before 2020, and Liam Fox were to win the Tory contest (not that I think either eventuality likely but it's about the closest equivalent to the US).
    Liam Fox is probably the last politician I would compare Trump to, he is probably closer to Corbyn than Fox.

    Anyway I have seen more than few Sanders supporters saying they would sit it out or vote Trump if HRC wins, they aren't just Jim Webb Democrats either. Foreign policy and establishment corruption are just bigger issues in the US, foreign policy is the one area a President controls and corruption is just more endemic.
    I was thinking of Fox more in the Cruz role to be honest. But either way, a hard-right/populist-nationalist candidate leading either the Conservatives or Republicans will drive sceptical and disillusioned Labour/Democrats back into the fold.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Who leaked the Sun story?

    There were present: the Rt. Hon. Nicholas Clegg MP (Lord President), the Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State, Department for Education), the Rt. Hon. Cheryl Gillan MP (Secretary of State for Wales) and the Lord McNally (Minister of State, Ministry of Justice).

    Might that have been followed by lunch? If you can spot any anti-EU highly reliable senior sources in there, you win today's "Elementary, my dear Watson" Sherlock Holmes prize.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-who-could-have-told-the-sun-the-queen-backed-brexit-a6920601.html


    I think Gove is in deep trouble if he proves to be the source of the leak, either directly or indirectly. I seriously doubt he has leaked directly but it is feasible that he has said something to somebody that has.
    Like the PM was in deep trouble when he bragged about HMQ 'purring on the line' to an American?
    Chalk & Cheese. The cameron incident barely raised a political ripple, the Sun article has landed the Monarchy right in the deep doo doo
    The Cameron indiscretion was after the event. This supposed (and denied!) statement is being publicised before the vote. It also apparently was made more than 5 years ago, so may not be quite so relevant now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,897

    Re: ConHome survey results of members. This will crush the Leadership hopes of many of those in the REMAIN camp.

    Anyone who thinks a ConHome survey is representative of Conservative Party members is barking up the wrong tree.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,364

    Re: ConHome survey results of members. This will crush the Leadership hopes of many of those in the REMAIN camp. Osborne probably has not given up yet - although he ought to. Also betting tip, consider Lord Feldman for next Cabinet departure, the man has a -40 rating and is as popular as something smelly one has just stepped in.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/cameron-plummets-towards-the-bottom-of-our-cabinet-league-table.html

    Why are Conhome surveys misrepresented as polls of members.

    They're not they're voodoo surveys of ContinuityIDS.

    Real polls have enough problems as it is. These are not scientific polls in any sense and even in their own survey report they mention how someone has answered twice.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Whilst I'm all for not whining, when the other side is playing unfair - it's legitimate to point it out. Otherwise they win.

    Turning the other cheek doesn't win the war in politics. That's not whining - it's rebuttal.
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    On Mark Carney. I really don't understand the problem. He was asked questions by the committee and gave pretty straightforward answers. Nothing he said wasn't true or made up, it's the manner of the uphill argument we face in the Leave camp. Instead of lashing out at Carney we should have concentrated on what he actually said and, more importantly, didn't say.

    He said "the EU has been good for us". That statement is, without any shadow of a doubt, true. What he didn't say, maybe because he wasn't asked, is whether it would be good for us in the future. We should be making the argument that the good times for the EU are over, our RoW trade is growing by 4% long run and our EU trade is falling by 2% long run. It is no longer in our interest to be in the EU as it was when it was "good for us".

    He said "leaving would cause uncertainty". Well of course it would, but again, we need to work on the message. Not all uncertainty is bad. We had 10 years of certainty under Brown, investment fell, the state became bloated and we lost our entrepreneurial spirit as a nation. Yes there will be uncertainty, but out of that we will get new activity, new opportunities to trade with the rest of the world which is growing a lot faster than the EU.

    As for HMQ, honestly, who cares if some unelected person is in favour of leaving or remaining. I highly doubt that the Queen being in favour of Brexit is going to convince an IT worker who likes going on holiday in Italy to vote to leave.

    I agree with this absolutely. It really is long, long past time that those for Leave started to make the positive case for it and stopped the whining. It is getting dangerously close to too late.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,055
    Mr. L, it's been said before but both campaigns are utter tosh. It's perhaps the worst rivalry since Arcadius and Honorius.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049

    Pulling out now would save him the ignominy of losing Florida.

    That's a wiki entry obituary.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Rubio pulling out before Florida?

    Surely he has too much invested to withdraw now? Yes, the polls are against him but Trump has underperformed the polls and it's not long since Cruz was looking to his home state as his firewall - look where he is now. If Rubio can win Florida then his delegate count, which is now looking pretty paltry next to Cruz and Trump, will rocket back to something respectable (though Cruz's only looks decent due to Texas giving him such a boost).

    Still, it was a shockingly poor night for Rubio. I'm not offering to lay this myself but I'd have thought 4/1 should be about ballpark for the scenario.
    Pulling out now would be an admission that he knew he was going to lose Florida so the practical effect would be the same.
    Not exactly: (a) people couldn't constantly write "he lost his home state" in 2020 and (b) it would materially impact Ohio as well, so could be presented as a magnanimous move for the good of the party.
    There is the issue of early voting though, as Plato noted. Even were he to pull out now, he'd end up with a non-trivial score which would make it harder to record as a DNC (Did not contest, not Dem national committee!).

    But you're right: Florida isn't stand-alone and the impact on the other contests next Tuesday can't be ignored. That's why I'd rate it as around a 20% shot.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,967
    MaxPB is increasingly and curiously insistent that he has a direct line to how all Sanders supporters think. So far as I know, we all have only anecdotal evidence, but although there are of course examples of every combination, I'd expect the vast majority of Sanders supporters to fall in line assuming the campaign stays as friendly as it has up to now. Sanders will give Clinton a generous endorsement, Clinton will acknowledge that Sanders has taught her things, and people will look at Trump/Cruz and rally round. Certainly the Sanders supporters that I know will vote Clinton vs Trump in a heartbeat.

    The two weak points that Max identifies are foreign interventionism and blue-collar anti-establishment feeling. I agree that the former is a problem for middle-class liberals (I think it's a worry about Clinton myself), but when push comes to shove we mostly get over it, as Blair demonstrated in 2005. The latter is IMO going to be a bit marginal as a motivation to vote Republican. But we don't really know for sure.

    The converse, whether Hillary supporters would vote for Bernie, is also uncertain. Most would, but quite a few establishment types would be very dubious after a few months of attack ads portraying him as the son of Brezhnev.

    If the convention ends up really close with Sanders coming on like an express train but falling just short of victory, it's interesting to speculate what Hillary can offer him. VP hasn't been ruled out by either side, but it'd be odd to lavish a VP nomination on Vermont with its 3 electoral votes. A pledge of a leading role in a Clinton administration may be as good as it gets.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    If David Cameron is stuck for anything to say at this Prime Minister's Questions, there's a fair chance that this will make an appearance:

    JohnRentoul · 32m32 minutes ago

    This is an appalling story. How could any normal person want to be in the same party as this fool? http://order-order.com/2016/03/09/911-apologist-reinstated-as-full-labour-member/

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,865
    Roger said:

    Hello Plato
    Stats....
    77% of car industry favours continued membership of EU.
    Over 75% of cars built went to export with nearly 60% going to the EU. The motor industry accounts for nearly 12% of all exports ... £15 billion.
    800,000 people employed by the industry.
    SMMT Chief says the EU is 'vital for the future' and 'leaving would put many of these jobs at risk'
    Toyota deputy managing director say leaving would 'open up a very uncertain future of technical difficulties and increased costs'
    (Autocar survey)
    So carry on Miss Plato (and others) carry on campaining to 'put many of these jobs at risk' .

    You can see what forms Carney's opinions.

    PS
    Peter Bone has a nerve... he was happy to be jovial sharing a platform with Galloway. (And some people wonder why I use the word 'odious'.) This is before you get to Farage.

    Someone had better tell the mugs that are investing £2billion in the UK car industry then.

    How has the UK car industry performed since the doomsday scenario of not joining the Euro?
    Mugs earning the nation a fortune. The car industry is an amazing (foreign owned) success. Massive investment based on it being in the EU.
    You just carry on 'putting all these jobs at risk'. Your cavalier attitude to reality is shameful.
    So you are in favour of us joining the Euro then. Nice to see you finally admitting it. Or are you too dumb to see the basic logically conclusion of what you just wrote?
    ...and they just keep coming
    Well it is rather like swatting flies when you guys are so bereft of any intelligent responses.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,042

    Generally speaking I discount ConHome as it's very Kipper, but given the Leave vs Remain battle - that's pretty interesting.

    Re: ConHome survey results of members. This will crush the Leadership hopes of many of those in the REMAIN camp. Osborne probably has not given up yet - although he ought to. Also betting tip, consider Lord Feldman for next Cabinet departure, the man has a -40 rating and is as popular as something smelly one has just stepped in.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/cameron-plummets-towards-the-bottom-of-our-cabinet-league-table.html

    Then make the argument, don't just say stupid things like "oh he just wants George Osborne to get him a directors position at Goldman Sachs". Nigel Lawson is a smart guy, he should have made this argument and used Carney's specific words against him rather than just moan about the other side.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Norman Smith
    Nearly half of @jeremycorbyn questions at #PMQs have been on welfare or health. None on the economy .
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,897
    edited March 2016

    Whilst I'm all for not whining, when the other side is playing unfair - it's legitimate to point it out. Otherwise they win.

    Turning the other cheek doesn't win the war in politics. That's not whining - it's rebuttal.

    That's wrong. The key to succcess is not to get into the mindset of even thinking to yourself that the other side are being 'unfair'. Instead the Leave side should be anticipating the attacks and putting in place solid defences, or, where that's not possible (and frankly it's a bit late now), trying to change the narrative to more favourable ground.

    They are making such a hash of it that it's almost painful to watch.
This discussion has been closed.